In terms of A50 withdrawal, I cannot see it. It would require a second referendum, and that would require a further GE, and a party that favoured continuing membership to win. There simply is not enough time or will.
Indeed no, it took nearly 40 years for a party other than the Unionists to win a majority after 1906 while Labour were replacing the Liberals. If the only major national pro-European party - the Liberal Democrats - are to replace either Tories or Labour we're looking at one hell of an extension - potentially longer than our membership to date.
I agree with the rest of your post. No extension and no deal is a crash out, not anchange our minds.
Change can happen a lot faster when there's a sufficient prompt. Look at the rise of the SNP in Scotland, or the replacement of the Whigs by the Republicans in the US in the 1850s, for example. If Brexit does become a defining, cleavage issue, then inevitably there will end up being a pro-Brexit/Out party and a pro-Remain/Rejoin party. The Tories will be the former; who would be the latter is open to doubt. Labour would start as strong favourites, though the Corbyn factor complicates matters.
Surely the pro Remain parties are Lib Dems in England, SNP in Scotland and Welsh Nationalists in Wales.
The SNP cannot really be regarded as properly pro-Remain given that they want to leave the UK. That would only be a valid categorisation if the Brexit debate was more important in Scotland than the SIndy one, which it isn't.
In Wales, who knows? Plaid seem to be angling for the "isn't it all awful; why doesn't someone else do something about it?" vote. Given the problems the Tories have in Westminster, Labour has in Cardiff and the Lib Dems have generally, it takes some effort for Plaid to be as useless as they are.
Really, so much made of Gove's sense of humour, perhaps people could need to be reminded of how funny he has been in the past..... https://youtu.be/GIpVBLDky30
"This suggests the Tories’ best chances of winning a majority at the next election lies in traditionally Labour seats where the Tories came close last time, such as Bishop Auckland, in the North East, which Labour has held since 1935
I am told Gavin Barwell, the PM’s chief of staff, is particularly convinced of this."
Gove is a serving Cabinet Minister and former Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor. He was making a joke about Rape and Rape victims. His joke was timed *during* an ongoing scandal and one which is in the process of hitting Westminster. He made his joke using language suggesting Rape victims lose their dignity. It was also a rather Meta joke as he was referring to the potential for ma!king Gaffes on the Today programme. It's was a fairly extraordinary thing to thing to say on National Radio and view joing about Rape and Rape victims is awful is perfectly reasonable.
That said I agree everyone will have forgotten about it tomorrow.
'cos tomorrow they will be pouring over the westminster groping scandal details?
And because Gove has issued an unqualified unreserved apology- none of this “sorry if anyone has taken offence” weaselling
"This suggests the Tories’ best chances of winning a majority at the next election lies in traditionally Labour seats where the Tories came close last time, such as Bishop Auckland, in the North East, which Labour has held since 1935
I am told Gavin Barwell, the PM’s chief of staff, is particularly convinced of this."
Really, so much made of Gove's sense of humour, perhaps people could need to be reminded of how funny he has been in the past..... https://youtu.be/GIpVBLDky30
Why were the boxer shorts retailing for fifteen DOLLARS all around the country ?
The author of Article 50 himself, a British bureaucrat, admitted that it was designed to be so one sided, and so awful for the potential quitter, that no sane country would ever use it.
He also said it is reversible, but apparently he doesn't know what he is talking about.
"This suggests the Tories’ best chances of winning a majority at the next election lies in traditionally Labour seats where the Tories came close last time, such as Bishop Auckland, in the North East, which Labour has held since 1935
I am told Gavin Barwell, the PM’s chief of staff, is particularly convinced of this."
The author of Article 50 himself, a British bureaucrat, admitted that it was designed to be so one sided, and so awful for the potential quitter, that no sane country would ever use it.
He also said it is reversible, but apparently he doesn't know what he is talking about.
No, as much of that equity release goes to fund deposits for their children to get on the housing ladder.
And price the kids without significant inheritances out of the housing market altogether.
F*ck the poor, vote Conservative
F***ing rubbish. Without that equity release not only would those middle class children find it more difficult to buy a flat or house unless they had a high wage (of course 60% of the country are still home owners) but kids without significant inheritances and who did not earn a high wage would still not earn enough to get a deposit and mortgage anyway. Typical Labour, everyone loses.
The best way to help those without inheritances is to build more affordable housing.
Gove is a serving Cabinet Minister and former Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor. He was making a joke about Rape and Rape victims. His joke was timed *during* an ongoing scandal and one which is in the process of hitting Westminster. He made his joke using language suggesting Rape victims lose their dignity. It was also a rather Meta joke as he was referring to the potential for ma!king Gaffes on the Today programme. It's was a fairly extraordinary thing to thing to say on National Radio and view joing about Rape and Rape victims is awful is perfectly reasonable.
That said I agree everyone will have forgotten about it tomorrow.
Pretty well agree with all of that - though I'd quite like those who call it 'satire' to elucidate the satirical purpose of comparing an on air political interview with the experience of being sexually assaulted by your employer....
The latest U Turn on LHA shows the bind the Tories are now in. Leveling down Housing Benefit entitlement for Social Housing tennants to Local Housing Allowance level was a typically unpleasant but politically astute stunt by Osborne. It wouldn't effect 80% of the country as usually RSL properties are much cheaper than the PRS. In the 20% of the country so poor and deprived that private rents are actually lower than Social Housing ones ... Well who cares about the deflationary impact and human misery caused by a whopping ' Bedroom Tax ' as nearly all those Seats vote Labour anyway. Osborne can look tough on Welfare and picket £0.5bn pa for deficit reduction.
But that was before the Referendum transmuted these deprived and usually very white communities in the Yeomanry of Agincourt via their Leave vote. So the Tories are shafted and had to U Turn. I'm not convinced myself. This was the strategy that was supposed to deliver a landslide in June and didn't. But seeing the Tories try to turn themselves into a sort of English DUP where they have to care about poor people as they move to identitarian politics will certainly be entertaining.
lol. I think M Bourdain is back on the charlie. What an absurd overreaction - possibly related to the fact that Bourdain's girlfriend has alleged a rape by Weinstein... a charge made just a tiny bit more complex by the undisputed fact that, after the rape and molestation, the same woman then had a several year consensual relationship with... Harvey Weinstein.
For a man of Anthony Bourdain's famed machismo, that must be *difficult*
But OTOH Bourdain did write Kitchen Confidential, which is a fecking brilliant book.
The latest U Turn on LHA shows the bind the Tories are now in. Leveling down Housing Benefit entitlement for Social Housing tennants to Local Housing Allowance level was a typically unpleasant but politically astute stunt by Osborne. It wouldn't effect 80% of the country as usually RSL properties are much cheaper than the PRS. In the 20% of the country so poor and deprived that private rents are actually lower than Social Housing ones ... Well who cares about the deflationary impact and human misery caused by a whopping ' Bedroom Tax ' as nearly all those Seats vote Labour anyway. Osborne can look tough on Welfare and picket £0.5bn pa for deficit reduction.
But that was before the Referendum transmuted these deprived and usually very white communities in the Yeomanry of Agincourt via their Leave vote. So the Tories are shafted and had to U Turn. I'm not convinced myself. This was the strategy that was supposed to deliver a landslide in June and didn't. But seeing the Tories try to turn themselves into a sort of English DUP where they have to care about poor people as they move to identitarian politics will certainly be entertaining.
It is skilled working class C2 voters the Tories won in June, unskilled and unemployed DE voters still mainly voted Labour. Though the Tories did get a swing to them with DE voters and a swing against them with AB and C1 voters.
I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.
There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.
On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.
The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.
You are Paul Hollywood and I claim my £5.
I ride a Ducati & fill my leathers more than I'd like, but there the similarity ends.
The author of Article 50 himself, a British bureaucrat, admitted that it was designed to be so one sided, and so awful for the potential quitter, that no sane country would ever use it.
He also said it is reversible, but apparently he doesn't know what he is talking about.
Would you buy a second-hand Constitution from this man?
I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.
There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.
On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.
The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.
Indeed. I think with current events politicians have to be extra sensitive and provide reassurance it's something they're going to take seriously. Over the next few days/weeks several alleged harassers are likely to be named and Westminster will face the same questions Hollywood and the media have been getting - why was this all treated as a bit of an open secret and even as a source of humour. Not the best look to be cracking a joke about it. You wouldn't have got very far in 2009 by making a joke about how much you could claim on expenses.
And Jezza making a speech later speaking out against "a culture where the abuse of women has often been accepted and normalised," including at Westminster. Corbyn Labour much more on top of the news cycle than the Maycons, who'd have thunk that a year ago?
Easier for him to make that speech with the MP for Sheffield Hallam currently not under the Labour Whip. If he is allowed to retake the Labour Whip in this Parliament, then it will all look like so much cant.
The latest U Turn on LHA shows the bind the Tories are now in. Leveling down Housing Benefit entitlement for Social Housing tennants to Local Housing Allowance level was a typically unpleasant but politically astute stunt by Osborne. It wouldn't effect 80% of the country as usually RSL properties are much cheaper than the PRS. In the 20% of the country so poor and deprived that private rents are actually lower than Social Housing ones ... Well who cares about the deflationary impact and human misery caused by a whopping ' Bedroom Tax ' as nearly all those Seats vote Labour anyway. Osborne can look tough on Welfare and picket £0.5bn pa for deficit reduction.
But that was before the Referendum transmuted these deprived and usually very white communities in the Yeomanry of Agincourt via their Leave vote. So the Tories are shafted and had to U Turn. I'm not convinced myself. This was the strategy that was supposed to deliver a landslide in June and didn't. But seeing the Tories try to turn themselves into a sort of English DUP where they have to care about poor people as they move to identitarian politics will certainly be entertaining.
Entertaining indeed.
Just to say, YS, your recent posts (esp. over the past few months) have been excellent.
Would you buy a second-hand Constitution from this man?
If the alternative was buying one from BoZo, hell yes!
That you would happily buy one from a proven fuck-up merchant over somebody who has never even had the opportunity to demonstrate his drafting skills says all that needs to be said.
I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.
There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.
On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.
The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.
You are Paul Hollywood and I claim my £5.
I ride a Ducati & fill my leathers more than I'd like, but there the similarity ends.
No, as much of that equity release goes to fund deposits for their children to get on the housing ladder.
And price the kids without significant inheritances out of the housing market altogether.
F*ck the poor, vote Conservative
Outside of the South, housing is largely still affordable.
It's not as clear cut as you are astroturfing
It is also not clear that in these areas (inc Leics) that affordable housing benefits the Tories.
Largely housing outside the South has remained affordable because real incomes have been squeezed. The former may favour the Tories, but the latter does not.
I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.
There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.
On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.
The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.
Indeed. I think with current events politicians have to be extra sensitive and provide reassurance it's something they're going to take seriously. Over the next few days/weeks several alleged harassers are likely to be named and Westminster will face the same questions Hollywood and the media have been getting - why was this all treated as a bit of an open secret and even as a source of humour. Not the best look to be cracking a joke about it. You wouldn't have got very far in 2009 by making a joke about how much you could claim on expenses.
And Jezza making a speech later speaking out against "a culture where the abuse of women has often been accepted and normalised," including at Westminster. Corbyn Labour much more on top of the news cycle than the Maycons, who'd have thunk that a year ago?
Easier for him to make that speech with the MP for Sheffield Hallam currently not under the Labour Whip. If he is allowed to retake the Labour Whip in this Parliament, then it will all look like so much cant.
One assumes that if he’s making a speech today in advance of expected headlines tomorrow, he’s going to come down like the proverbial ton of bricks on any of his MPs named in the Sundays?
No, as much of that equity release goes to fund deposits for their children to get on the housing ladder.
And price the kids without significant inheritances out of the housing market altogether.
F*ck the poor, vote Conservative
Outside of the South, housing is largely still affordable.
It's not as clear cut as you are astroturfing
It is also not clear that in these areas (inc Leics) that affordable housing benefits the Tories.
Largely housing outside the South has remained affordable because real incomes have been squeezed. The former may favour the Tories, but the latter does not.
I doubt there are many areas where real incomes haven't been squeezed.
No, as much of that equity release goes to fund deposits for their children to get on the housing ladder.
And price the kids without significant inheritances out of the housing market altogether.
F*ck the poor, vote Conservative
Outside of the South, housing is largely still affordable.
It's not as clear cut as you are astroturfing
I feel a little sorry for the tories who fooled themselves into believing their party cared about meritocracy. Y'know, getting on in life through your own efforts.
I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.
There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.
On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.
The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.
Indeed. I think with current events politicians have to be extra sensitive and provide reassurance it's something they're going to take seriously. Over the next few days/weeks several alleged harassers are likely to be named and Westminster will face the same questions Hollywood and the media have been getting - why was this all treated as a bit of an open secret and even as a source of humour. Not the best look to be cracking a joke about it. You wouldn't have got very far in 2009 by making a joke about how much you could claim on expenses.
And Jezza making a speech later speaking out against "a culture where the abuse of women has often been accepted and normalised," including at Westminster. Corbyn Labour much more on top of the news cycle than the Maycons, who'd have thunk that a year ago?
Easier for him to make that speech with the MP for Sheffield Hallam currently not under the Labour Whip. If he is allowed to retake the Labour Whip in this Parliament, then it will all look like so much cant.
One assumes that if he’s making a speech today in advance of expected headlines tomorrow, he’s going to come down like the proverbial ton of bricks on any of his MPs named in the Sundays?
That will depend on whether he regards them as political enemies or political allies.
In terms of A50 withdrawal, I cannot see it. It would require a second referendum, and that would require a further GE, and a party that favoured continuing membership to win. There simply is not enough time or will.
Indeed no, it took nearly 40 years for a party other than the Unionists to win a majority after 1906 while Labour were replacing the Liberals. If the only major national pro-European party - the Liberal Democrats - are to replace either Tories or Labour we're looking at one hell of an extension - potentially longer than our membership to date.
I agree with the rest of your post. No extension and no deal is a crash out, not anchange our minds.
Change can happen a lot faster when there's a sufficient prompt. Look at the rise of the SNP in Scotland, or the replacement of the Whigs by the Republicans in the US in the 1850s, for example. If Brexit does become a defining, cleavage issue, then inevitably there will end up being a pro-Brexit/Out party and a pro-Remain/Rejoin party. The Tories will be the former; who would be the latter is open to doubt. Labour would start as strong favourites, though the Corbyn factor complicates matters.
Surely the pro Remain parties are Lib Dems in England, SNP in Scotland and Welsh Nationalists in Wales.
The SNP cannot really be regarded as properly pro-Remain given that they want to leave the UK. That would only be a valid categorisation if the Brexit debate was more important in Scotland than the SIndy one, which it isn't.
In Wales, who knows? Plaid seem to be angling for the "isn't it all awful; why doesn't someone else do something about it?" vote. Given the problems the Tories have in Westminster, Labour has in Cardiff and the Lib Dems have generally, it takes some effort for Plaid to be as useless as they are.
The SNP shed huge amounts of Brexit voters in 2017.
No, as much of that equity release goes to fund deposits for their children to get on the housing ladder.
And price the kids without significant inheritances out of the housing market altogether.
F*ck the poor, vote Conservative
Outside of the South, housing is largely still affordable.
It's not as clear cut as you are astroturfing
I feel a little sorry for the tories who fooled themselves into believing their party cared about meritocracy. Y'know, getting on in life through your own efforts.
The client vote have the party by the balls.
The Tories have always been the party of family and tradition and meritocracy, it is laissez-faire liberals who are focused on supposed 'meritocracy' alone
The chatterati will get very excited about Michael Gove's Weinstein joke. No one else will care.
I'm not a fan of Michael Gove but I refuse to get excited about the kind of joke that is told daily up and down the country. The outrage confected about such things is far more alienating for a lot of the general public than the original mal mot.
Yes, comparing Humphries to an alleged multiple rapist... hilarious. The point isn't outrage - it's that Gove is an idiot.
Oh get off that high horse.
On another day pb will have anguished discussions why Britain's politicians are so second rate. The hyperbolic reactions to events such as this are a big part why. If people are going to be so easily offended by a pretty normal attempt at levity, why would anyone sane put themselves through the bollock ache?
Gove has a reputation as a highly intelligent and witty man. This was a shit joke.
You are the one attempting an inappropriate equine mount.
Gove made a good joke which had the added satirical advantage of aligning Today programme's John Humphrey's with Harvey Weinstein.
Listening to the replay of Gove's joke, Kinnocks comment, and the laughter and applause from the audience lays bare the media 'snowflake' approach to so much these days.
We really need to get a sense of perspective.
So why the Gove apology ?
Political correctness no doubt - but we all need to rediscover perspective
I hope all those opposing political correctness in judging Gove were equally indulgent of O'Mara...
Do you really not understand the difference?
Yes, one was a former Labour M, the other a Conservative one, and therefore above criticism.
No - one was being directly unpleasant about women and others. The other was making a poor taste joke that could be interpreted (although wasn't intended to be) dismissive of the hurt suffered by Weinstein alleged victims
Comments
In Wales, who knows? Plaid seem to be angling for the "isn't it all awful; why doesn't someone else do something about it?" vote. Given the problems the Tories have in Westminster, Labour has in Cardiff and the Lib Dems have generally, it takes some effort for Plaid to be as useless as they are.
https://youtu.be/GIpVBLDky30
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/924246886101417984
But areas with affordable housing and good communications should continue to trend Conservative.
This place! Some of you lot should have a go at stand up.
Was this event taking place abroad ?
It's reversible if the other 27 agree.
F*ck the poor, vote Conservative
IHT is the most pernicious of all taxes, I’d scrap it completely as part of a tax simplification program.
The best way to help those without inheritances is to build more affordable housing.
But that was before the Referendum transmuted these deprived and usually very white communities in the Yeomanry of Agincourt via their Leave vote. So the Tories are shafted and had to U Turn. I'm not convinced myself. This was the strategy that was supposed to deliver a landslide in June and didn't. But seeing the Tories try to turn themselves into a sort of English DUP where they have to care about poor people as they move to identitarian politics will certainly be entertaining.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/weighing-the-costs-of-speaking-out-about-harvey-weinstein
Just to say, YS, your recent posts (esp. over the past few months) have been excellent.
It's kick-off time in Catalonia.
Carles Puigdemont vows to resist takeover
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41788898
It's not as clear cut as you are astroturfing
Largely housing outside the South has remained affordable because real incomes have been squeezed. The former may favour the Tories, but the latter does not.
The client vote have the party by the balls.
new thread