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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From what Davis said, we need to think about a Limbo Brexit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From what Davis said, we need to think about a Limbo Brexit
Brexits are like fairies. There are good ones, bad ones and if you say it with enough feeling, they might not exist at all. What we haven’t heard much of so far – though given David Davis’ comments at the Select Committee this week, we should have done – is the Limbo Brexit.
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Firms already deal with tax years being different between different jurisdictions. There'll be some messing around - and some people will probably manage to defer some tax - but it will all be manageable.
Brexits are like fairies. There are good ones, bad ones and if you say it with enough feeling, they might not exist at all.
I can’t imagine who you mean!
Is it that painful to add 'No Brexit' to the possibilities whose chances increase rapidly if there is no deal by 2019?
It is also true that 2018 is the peak danger period for stalled investment. Like David I expect a deal in December 2018, but it won't look like that for much of the year, and many businesses are in my experience not as politically sophisticated as one would wish - they'll read of "negotiation crisis" and "talks breaking down" and take them at face value. Perhaps THIS December's talks should focus on the process in 2018 to minimise that risk.
F1: bit surprised but it seems Hartley might stay on next year. Thought the Japanese fellow whose name escapes me was likelier to get it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/41785009
If you backed Ricciardo at 21 (23 with boost) the other day, he's now down to 9 on Betfair Exchange. Might still be a little long, but very hedgeable.
Edited extra bit, the 9 is the lay value, to clarify.
Alternatively, our politicians can go ahead with Brexit - of whatever flavour can be negotiated. If that is Hard Brexit, then that is a failing of all politicians across Europe. More likely - given that the greatest growth industry in the EU over the past 40 years has been fudge production - it will probably end up with parts of it not resolved, parts to be finalised by working groups, parts to be settled in accordance with a formula where the sums to be paid over can only be known in five years time. But planes will continue to land, people will continue to move, cars will continue to be sold. Politicians will continue to be re-elected.
And that way, no-one needs to resign.
Just like in Northern Ireland.
#Rem-onanism
"We lied to you about how bad being a member of the EU was, and how much economic damage leaving will do. We can leave. We are, and always were Sovereign, but the costs are huge, and leaving will not solve any of the problems that were falsely attributed to the EU by charlatans like BoZo. It is in the National interest to remain a member of the EU."
Then there should be a General Election
https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/922457581792116739
he's called George and works for a newspaper
Well done.
Sane people would ask, why the hell leave?
If only you had been able to convince people of the merits of your case, you might have that world.
Epic fail. Own it.
the bus still beat you
F1: Ricciardo 6 on Betfair Sportsbook. I do hope he does well. Raikkonen 1st and the Red Bulls next would be a good grid. Although I can't see that particular lineup happening.
I would have preferred to remain but alea iacta est.... and trying to subvert the referendum is an orders of magnitude worse idea than leaving the EU....
If in 12 months time there is real progress then an A50 extension for a further year would probably pass, but if as deadlocked as at present then WTO hard Brexit with no transition will happen as the default option. As May consistently demonstrates poor judgement, the latter is most likely, though a craven cave in by our side is possible.
In terms of A50 withdrawal, I cannot see it. It would require a second referendum, and that would require a further GE, and a party that favoured continuing membership to win. There simply is not enough time or will.
We have made our bed, and going to have to lie in it. Sensible folk should arrange their affairs accordingly. I would be slightly reassured if there were serious plans afoot for WTO hard Brexit as a realistic possibility, but it seems the plan is to wing it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41785292
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/jamaika-und-katalonien-im-faz-net-countdown-15264471.html
TMerkel still trying to herd cats
Schulz says new election if coalition talks fail
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170129525/Schulz-fordert-Neuwahlen-wenn-Jamaika-Sondierungen-scheitern.html
Oh, wait...
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/870761/EU-army-Donald-Tusk-UK-Brexit-migrant-crisis-PESCO-Europe-European-Parliament
Now we're leaving they can do what they like.
I had hoped from the threader that the metaphor was limbo *dancing*, with TMay and DD having to wriggle under a bar which is 2 inches lower every time they go to Brussels.
I agree with the rest of your post. No extension and no deal is a crash out, not anchange our minds.
Still no word on Ricciardo’s engine change (or not), they may well risk the old one and take a penalty in Brazil instead, although it makes sense if you’re going to take a new engine to use it for three rather than only two races. Remember also that it broke down last weekend.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-options-deal-no-2019-scenarios
It may be a remoaner's wet dream. In the real world it's a shambles destined for failure.
However there may be a transition deal agreed by then but given that effectively requires us to stay in the single market in all but name, ie accepting ECJ jurisdiction, full free movement and continued payments to the EU, provided the UK agrees to that for 2 years post Brexit as it has proposed. There is really nothing to negotiate on that, as Barnier has said it just has to accept those terms.
I know this story - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5024085/UBS-likely-1-000-staff-London-chief-executive-says.html - has been mentioned before but I think the wrong interpretation has, probably, been put on it.
The clarifications are likely to have been given by authorities within Europe rather than just our own as to the extent to which it is possible for a bank with a presence in the EU can use an entity outside it to carry out many of the functions for and on behalf of the the EU based entity. The more it can, the less need to move jobs to the EU.
If I’m right on this, then it is both interesting in terme of the attitude of the EU authorities and helpful for the UK.
Ironically the Tories ended up making most of their gains in Remain seats because of their gains in Scotland.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Annual_U.K._GDP_Growth,_1948_to_2012.png/350px-Annual_U.K._GDP_Growth,_1948_to_2012.png
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/924173497580032000
The same is true for the EU. Its 27 vs 1, the power sits with them not with us. That our negotiation team can't see through their jingoistic arrogance to understand the start points to the negotiation explains a huge amount about our lack of progress. We cross the channel banging on about the mother of all rows and telling Brussels to go whistle, then seem surprised to find in reality that the other party is holding all the aces and us a pair of threes.
Business cannot wait for an 11th hour deal. A50 means we leave at the end of March 2019 deal or no deal. With no signs of a deal and no signs that the UK "negotiators" can even agree on the objectives of such a deal, business will assume the worst and act accordingly. They've been very clear that without significant progress this year they would act accordingly next year, and as Nick Palmer points out there is a significant risk in 2018 to our economy.
You want the perfect political storm? 2018. A government in office but unable to even command power over the cabinet never mind parliament. An economy with a prices recession in full effect and deepening. Massive pressure on local authorities as year of cuts combined with an onslaught of UC costs tips some towards the edge. And business pulling out the umbilicals of investment and jobs to protect itself against the assumed crunch against the bottom of the cliff in April 2019.
It could be a brutal bloody year and I get the distinct impression that millions of people are in angry denial about the peril of the situation. Once they realise their anger will be directed at the politicians.
The Tories made a plurality of their gains in SNP Remain seats but because they opposed indyref2 which enabled them to win despite their taking a tougher line on Brexit than the SNP.
The LDs did win a net 4 seats on an anti Brexit ticket but that was only 4 up on their terrible 2015 result and they still lost voteshare.
1) It's going to be unbelievably expensive because you lose all the economic benefits that were the reason for joining in the first place then agreeing all the subsequent steps, and you have the transition costs to boot.
2) Due to domestic pressure the government bollocksed up the process and gave itself a hard deadline before it had any idea wtf it wanted, and the deadline can only be extended by the generosity and good grace of their negotiating partners.
3) There's no way to avoid disappointing a large chunk of leave supporters, because they want contradictory things.
The accounts have been signed off for the past 20 years, unless you read the Mail or the Telegraph.
There is more corruption in the head offices of Banks and financial institutions in London than probably the rest of the EU, which is the main reason the Europeans would like the UK to FO.
This is a major problem that will have to be lanced, even if we leave, sooner or later.
That too many Brexiteers believe that the world revolves around them, is not shared by the rest of the world, and slowly, but surely it is beginning to dawn on them that the tenets of their self belief are crumbling....
A Canada style FTA would still allow tariff free trade of goods which is more important for the North and Midlands where manufacturing is a bigger part of the economy.
The British government will still likely implement some EU regulations to ensure the City gets some access to the EEA but the Leave vote means we are leaving the single market to reduce immigration and end free movement with a FTA the best alternative to that.
One thing to add - if May can’t get a deal done - then why not replace her before March 2019?
About the only thing she has going for her is her considerable government experience.
If we look like crashing out I would expect at least some Tory MPs to think - hang on, I can definitely do better than this.
I’d be interested in a betting market around all this but very difficult to specify the terms and conditions.
I think he’s an interesting bellwether either way because he’s not a fanatic but lazily shares a lot of the misconceptions of the Brexiteer worldview.
This says he backed leave in 2013 at least:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2013/may/09/portillo-call-exit-eu
But what we can do is regain some control over migration. There is nothing stopping us implementing existing EEA rules about regulations of movement - British citizens have to register with their local authority and we can make EU citizens do the same. Then apply the 3 months to find a job rule. Present "new" tougher rules combined with a beefier Border Force fit for purpose and there you go, control of our borders.