politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov president Peter Kellner says “Brexit Buyers’ remorse
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov president Peter Kellner says “Brexit Buyers’ remorse” might be starting particularly amongst C2DEs
In an excellent article the former YouGov President, Peter Kellner, says there could be signs of buyer’s remorse amongst LEAVE voters particularly amongst the C2DEs. He based this in Prospect on an analysis of the trend to YouGov’s “in hindsight was referendum outcome right or wrong” tracker. Last Friday this showed “wrong” at its highest level with a 5% lead.
Comments
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Bored with Brexit!
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Brexit Sucks0
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There's only one way to stop talking about it.Ave_it said:Bored with Brexit!
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Unfortunately it won't change anything, we're Leaving.0
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Like a hooker that swallowed a Dyson.Freggles said:Brexit Sucks
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Maybe, but it is almost certainly too late, so the only impact will be punishment of the Tories, which if one really is most concerned with stopping Brexit, is hardly a comparable outcome.0
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Let's have another GE! 0
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C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll, with the lead for opponents of Brexit amongst the middle classes falling by 2%0 -
I've always preferred, 'that Bill Clinton is paying by the orgasm'.TheScreamingEagles said:
Like a hooker that swallowed a Dyson.Freggles said:Brexit Sucks
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Sorry no, I don't have the energy for another election for at least another 5 years.Ave_it said:Let's have another GE!
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On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.0
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Peter Kellner desperate to avoid Brexit.0
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But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.0 -
Let's discuss what really matters - Watford & Burnley's success in. the EPL this season.Ave_it said:Let's have another GE!
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A post-Brexit Dyson with extra noisy, energy consuming engine.TheScreamingEagles said:
Like a hooker that swallowed a Dyson.Freggles said:Brexit Sucks
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Merkel's been intentionally sabotaging British car owners.
Macron finds it funny.
Look at them. They're laughing at us.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/9199989607140761610 -
Yougov's final published poll in 2017 had a Tory lead of 7%.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
Of course this is also a lot of snobbery due to the fact the EU referendum was the first time the working class C2DE voters beat the ABC1 voters since Harold Wilson's 1974 victories over Edward Heath0 -
But their seat model was spot on, and their subsequent polls have taken that into account now, so I'm more confident about their polling.HYUFD said:
Yougov's final published poll in 2017 had a Tory lead of 7%.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
Of course this is also a lot of snobbery due to the fact the EU referendum was the first time the working class C2DE voters beat the ABC1 voters since Harold Wilson's 1974 victories over Edward Heath0 -
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.0 -
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
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A referendum is a straight question not a seat model but regardless even with Yougov Remain is not at 50% yet alone over it so there has been no major changeTheScreamingEagles said:
But their seat model was spot on, and their subsequent polls have taken that into account now, so I'm more confident about their polling.HYUFD said:
Yougov's final published poll in 2017 had a Tory lead of 7%.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
Of course this is also a lot of snobbery due to the fact the EU referendum was the first time the working class C2DE voters beat the ABC1 voters since Harold Wilson's 1974 victories over Edward Heath0 -
I hope that those aren't the only options on offer.HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
It sounds awfully like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.0 -
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Source?HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
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It certainly sounds a hell of a lot more interesting than more Brexit.MikeSmithson said:
Let's discuss what really matters - Watford & Burnley's success in. the EPL this season.Ave_it said:Let's have another GE!
And I speak as someone who considers football to be very marginally less fascinating than watching paint dry.0 -
I can't believe there is remorse from anyone.
What has happened? Nothing just a lot of hot air from politicians and the media. 5% is a who cares margin after the event. Same anti-establishment feeling now that Brexit is being run by the establishment.0 -
Rees-Mogg came joint top of the last Luntz focus group for next Tory leader, Osborne never topped a poll or focus group of the public for next Tory leader and Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet ministerTheScreamingEagles said:
Source?HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
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I doubt they will be especially as the latter two are not longer in frontline politicsrcs1000 said:
I hope that those aren't the only options on offer.HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
It sounds awfully like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.0 -
By 16, in fact.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.0 -
So no proper polling then, do you know what the MOE is on a focus group of 6 to 20?HYUFD said:
Rees-Mogg came joint top of the last Luntz focus group for next Tory leader, Osborne never topped a poll or focus group of the public for next Tory leader and Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet ministerTheScreamingEagles said:
Source?HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
Understood.0 -
About the same number of seats John Curtice (pbuh) and his team underestimated the Tories in the 2015 exit poll, and he was lauded for his brilliance.Sean_F said:
By 16, in fact.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.0 -
Agreed Mike big clubs come through!MikeSmithson said:
Let's discuss what really matters - Watford & Burnley's success in. the EPL this season.Ave_it said:Let's have another GE!
When Watford win the PL it will be the first club to win the PL in a CON seat since er 2017!
(IS Chelsea still CON?) 0 -
Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
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After Brexit the guacamole/mushy peas joke will have to be reversed.HYUFD said:Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet minister
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Keep voting till you give the right answer. But then as someone said a long time ago if voting changed anything they'd abolish it.0
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If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.0 -
https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.0 -
"Jeremy Corbyn's Islington North seat to be abolished in boundary shake-up"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-islington-north-seat-to-be-abolished-in-boundary-shakeup-a3659846.html0 -
Rees Mogg got his highest support in relatively working class Wales and NI in the last Survation on the Tory leadershipTheScreamingEagles said:
So no proper polling then, do you know what the MOE is on a focus group of 6 to 20?HYUFD said:
Rees-Mogg came joint top of the last Luntz focus group for next Tory leader, Osborne never topped a poll or focus group of the public for next Tory leader and Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet ministerTheScreamingEagles said:
Source?HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
Understood.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Mail-On-Sunday-September-23rd-Data-Tables-1.pdf0 -
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.0 -
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/9200271459126353930 -
Perhaps but I would expect working class voters to at least prefer Rees Mogg who agrees with them on Brexit even though they disagree with him on austerity to Osborne who they disagree with on both Brexit and austerity. Though Osborne I would expect to poll better with middle class Londoners than Rees-MoggRecidivist said:
Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
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To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.0 -
Lab gain Canterbury was the one that caused a lot of people embarrassment, it was largely pooh poohed.rcs1000 said:
To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.0 -
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.0 -
St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.rcs1000 said:
To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.
O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.0 -
Can I point out that I suggested Canterbury was a seat where Labour should be challenging...TheScreamingEagles said:
Lab gain Canterbury was the one that caused a lot of people embarrassment, it was largely pooh poohed.rcs1000 said:
To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.
...and I was asked what I was smoking?
It's a pity the rest of my predictions were so shit really otherwise I would have had a good election campaign.0 -
But they dislike the EU for completely different reasons. Feminists and evangelicals both disapprove of lingerie adverts in the tube, but that doesn't mean they like each other.HYUFD said:
Perhaps but I would expect working class voters to at least prefer Rees Mogg who agrees with them on Brexit even though they disagree with him on austerity to Osborne who they disagree with on both Brexit and austerity. Though Osborne I would expect to poll better with middle class Londoners than Rees-MoggRecidivist said:
Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
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So everyone's wrong but you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393
Yep, arrogance.....
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Emily Thornberry got pretty close to winning Canterbury for Labour in 2001.0
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Problem is that having promised the people the moon on a stick, if said moon isn't produced voters are more likely to denounce the moon stick promising politicians and vote differently than to say " I got it wrong can I change my vote". Electorates rarely reward being told they voted wrong, as by elections results after legal challenges to tight / dodgy election wins have shown.
If the promise of Brexit turns to pain, voters won't blame themselves for believing snake oil salesmen. They'll blame the salesmen for not delivering0 -
It's interesting in that poll that Labour have picked up both Remain and Leave supporters since the 2017 election. Tory 2017 voters who back Remain are abandoning the party.HYUFD said:0 -
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Good spot. I wonder if it will turn out that a lot of leavers were never really that fussed by it after all.williamglenn said:
It's interesting in that poll that Labour have picked up both Remain and Leave supporters since the 2017 election. Tory 2017 voters who back Remain are abandoning the party.HYUFD said:0 -
https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Has still not landed anywhere.
It must be pretty scary to be on board.0 -
Cf Trump, Chavez and (should he ever win power) Corbyn.RochdalePioneers said:Problem is that having promised the people the moon on a stick, if said moon isn't produced voters are more likely to denounce the moon stick promising politicians and vote differently than to say " I got it wrong can I change my vote". Electorates rarely reward being told they voted wrong, as by elections results after legal challenges to tight / dodgy election wins have shown.
If the promise of Brexit turns to pain, voters won't blame themselves for believing snake oil salesmen. They'll blame the salesmen for not delivering0 -
The Tories led with Leavers by 17% in that poll, Labour with Remainers by 20% but that poll also had about 2% of 2017 Tories going to UKIPwilliamglenn said:
It's interesting in that poll that Labour have picked up both Remain and Leave supporters since the 2017 election. Tory 2017 voters who back Remain are abandoning the party.HYUFD said:0 -
It doesnt matter. We had a referendum. We do not conduct government by opinion poll.0
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There are two cases where the polls weren't randomly distributed around the same mean. The 2016 EU referendum polls had a mode effect: the phone polls and the online polls were giving different results. Arguably the 2017 UK GE election had one as well: IIRC pollsters that used turnout models gave different results to those that didn't.Ishmael_Z said:..if the polls are randomly distributed...
If there is a mode effect in place then you have to judge which mode is correct and discard the polls that use the other mode. The "poll of polls" concept doesn't help in these cases.
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Back to Stansted I suggest.Pong said:
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.
Are there any betting markets on this?0 -
You can. Groupthink is a powerful thing. BlackRook was one of the best analysts this site's produced but the YouGovSucks! shouting deflected even her.ydoethur said:
Can I point out that I suggested Canterbury was a seat where Labour should be challenging...TheScreamingEagles said:
Lab gain Canterbury was the one that caused a lot of people embarrassment, it was largely pooh poohed.rcs1000 said:
To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.
...and I was asked what I was smoking?0 -
Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Back to Stansted I suggest.Pong said:
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.
Are there any betting markets on this?0 -
Working class Leavers particularly dislike the EU because of free movement, Rees Mogg accepts that needs to end even if his primary motivation for disliking the EU is one of sovereignty and excessive regulationRecidivist said:
But they dislike the EU for completely different reasons. Feminists and evangelicals both disapprove of lingerie adverts in the tube, but that doesn't mean they like each other.HYUFD said:
Perhaps but I would expect working class voters to at least prefer Rees Mogg who agrees with them on Brexit even though they disagree with him on austerity to Osborne who they disagree with on both Brexit and austerity. Though Osborne I would expect to poll better with middle class Londoners than Rees-MoggRecidivist said:
Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.HYUFD said:
A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osbornewilliamglenn said:On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.
0 -
0
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From hereditary to 15 years... what is the world coming to?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh electoral reform
twitter.com/hendopolis/status/920036419220987905
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It's in the nature of things that politicians will over-promise, and voters will elect those who over-promise.ydoethur said:
Cf Trump, Chavez and (should he ever win power) Corbyn.RochdalePioneers said:Problem is that having promised the people the moon on a stick, if said moon isn't produced voters are more likely to denounce the moon stick promising politicians and vote differently than to say " I got it wrong can I change my vote". Electorates rarely reward being told they voted wrong, as by elections results after legal challenges to tight / dodgy election wins have shown.
If the promise of Brexit turns to pain, voters won't blame themselves for believing snake oil salesmen. They'll blame the salesmen for not delivering
For my part, I assume that there will be difficulties during the Brexit process, but most of us don't want to be part of a new nation called Europe, so we should disengage.0 -
I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.ydoethur said:
Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Back to Stansted I suggest.Pong said:
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.
Are there any betting markets on this?
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Maybe they are waiting for the UK-Ireland border issue to be sorted before landing, a live action demo of no deal?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Back to Stansted I suggest.Pong said:
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.
Are there any betting markets on this?
Seriously, must be no fun at all to be on board that flight.
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Well, they've missed Bristol. But they're taking a very strange route if they're heading for Stansted. Southampton perhaps? Or are they actually heading for France?
Edit - turned east, but well south of London. Can't think what they're doing unless it's Gatwick or Heathrow.0 -
Fifteen year terms, I believe I suggested that for the country's first directly elected Dictator.RobD said:
From hereditary to 15 years... what is the world coming to?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh electoral reform
twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9200364192209879050 -
Those dolphins sound more clued up than the Leave voters...0
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If I read the runes aright, it aborted takeoff. Either that or James T. Kirk was flying it, as its latest flight lasted four minutes.Benpointer said:
I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.ydoethur said:
Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Back to Stansted I suggest.Pong said:
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.
Are there any betting markets on this?0 -
Not in the least.Nigelb said:
So everyone's wrong but you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393
Yep, arrogance.....
I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.
Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.0 -
Saw something that said DAAR1 is a ground vehicle, hence I edited out my question to avoid looking stupid (I should know by now, it's too lateydoethur said:
If I read the runes aright, it aborted takeoff. Either that or James T. Kirk was flying it, as its latest flight lasted four minutes.Benpointer said:
I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.ydoethur said:
Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Back to Stansted I suggest.Pong said:
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.
Are there any betting markets on this?)
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Only applies to new Peers - so will be 15 years before change has any impact at all.0
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stansted0
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Is it too late to change my bet to Gatwick?
I'm sure it's more fun watching the tracker than being on the plane!0 -
Re House of Lords - bad run for Con - Mawhinney went on Leave of Absence last week, Lloyd Webber retires today, Trumpington retires next week.0
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Or grand coalition. Although that is unlikely. It would be better for the SPO, as in Germany, to go into opposition.Sean_F said:
St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.rcs1000 said:
To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.
O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.0 -
Well, the aircraft appears to be turning north, so maybe it is Stansted. Strange route though. Will surely take it right over London and through the edge of the storm?Benpointer said:
Saw something that said DAAR1 is a ground vehicle, hence I edited out my question to avoid looking stupid (I should know by now, it's too lateydoethur said:
If I read the runes aright, it aborted takeoff. Either that or James T. Kirk was flying it, as its latest flight lasted four minutes.Benpointer said:
I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.ydoethur said:
Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Back to Stansted I suggest.Pong said:
Given up trying to land?Pulpstar said:https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293
Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.
Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.
Are there any betting markets on this?)
Ah well, I have a full teaching day tomorrow, so good night all. Thank you as ever for your company.0 -
Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!0
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May has just announced two new Con Peers (for new ministers) but she still hasn't done a proper list of new political Peers.
Five new Crossbenchers have also just been announced.0 -
Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.Benpointer said:Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!
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It is also dangerous, the EU referendum was the first time a majority of C2DE voters beat a majority of ABC1 voters since 1974 when Wilson beat Heath, working class voters will not be happy at having that victory snatched from them by a middle class eliteRichard_Tyndall said:
Not in the least.Nigelb said:
So everyone's wrong but you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393
Yep, arrogance.....
I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.
Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.0 -
Heathrow?Richard_Tyndall said:
Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.Benpointer said:Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!
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Edit. Oops wrong. Turned north nowRichard_Tyndall said:
Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.Benpointer said:Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!
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Wouldn't Stansted be better for positioning for tomorrow?0
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Neither OVP nor SPO seem keen on grand coalition.dixiedean said:
Or grand coalition. Although that is unlikely. It would be better for the SPO, as in Germany, to go into opposition.Sean_F said:
St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.rcs1000 said:
To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.
O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.0 -
Looks like you're right.Rhubarb said:Wouldn't Stansted be better for positioning for tomorrow?
Meanwhile RYR119 LGW-DUB has been holding just outside Dublin for half an hour
0 -
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You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not in the least.Nigelb said:
So everyone's wrong but you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393
Yep, arrogance.....
I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.
Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.0 -
"DO NOT WAAAANT!"AndyJS said:"Jeremy Corbyn's Islington North seat to be abolished in boundary shake-up"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-islington-north-seat-to-be-abolished-in-boundary-shakeup-a3659846.html0 -
Indeed. Was merely pointing that the possibility existed. Not really in anyone's interests at the moment, but that could all change.Sean_F said:
Neither OVP nor SPO seem keen on grand coalition.dixiedean said:
Or grand coalition. Although that is unlikely. It would be better for the SPO, as in Germany, to go into opposition.Sean_F said:
St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.rcs1000 said:
To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)Sean_F said:
I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.Ishmael_Z said:
If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.Sean_F said:
Their standard polling question, not so much.TheScreamingEagles said:
But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.HYUFD said:C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway
You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll
Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.
And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.
O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.0 -
I think the danger here is treating groups like 'working class voters' or 'middle class elite'* as if there were some kind of cohesive units, each with a unified thought process. They aren't, people think and vote as individuals.HYUFD said:
It is also dangerous, the EU referendum was the first time a majority of C2DE voters beat a majority of ABC1 voters since 1974 when Wilson beat Heath, working class voters will not be happy at having that victory snatched from them by a middle class eliteRichard_Tyndall said:
Not in the least.Nigelb said:
So everyone's wrong but you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393
Yep, arrogance.....
I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.
Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
(*'Middle class elite' is an oxymoron surely?)0 -
Who decides who is "wrong?"Ally_B said:
You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not in the least.Nigelb said:
So everyone's wrong but you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393
Yep, arrogance.....
I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.
Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.0 -
And yet the same people who you think are not intelligent enough to decide upon the issues are apparently intelligent enough to choose the person who should decide the issues for them?Ally_B said:
You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not in the least.Nigelb said:
So everyone's wrong but you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.Scott_P said:Rats and ships...
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393
Yep, arrogance.....
I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.
Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
Somewhat illogical I would suggest. And certainly looking at the crop of MPs we have sitting in Parliament at the moment I wouldn't trust them to make any more of an informed and reasoned decision than the public at large. I am afraid you are displaying just the sort of arrogance I was referring to.0
