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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov president Peter Kellner says “Brexit Buyers’ remorse

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,611

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    It is also dangerous, the EU referendum was the first time a majority of C2DE voters beat a majority of ABC1 voters since 1974 when Wilson beat Heath, working class voters will not be happy at having that victory snatched from them by a middle class elite
    I think the danger here is treating groups like 'working class voters' or 'middle class elite'* as if there were some kind of cohesive units, each with a unified thought process. They aren't, people think and vote as individuals.

    (*'Middle class elite' is an oxymoron surely?)
    True but nonetheless the trend was there, there was a big divide by class and education particularly but also by income too.

    If working class Leave voters do not get the immigration controls they were promised because of Brexit they will either vote for Corbyn to bash the rich and the corporations or they will vote for UKIP again to find a party who will end free movement
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,722
    edited October 2017

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    And yet the same people who you think are not intelligent enough to decide upon the issues are apparently intelligent enough to choose the person who should decide the issues for them?

    Somewhat illogical I would suggest. And certainly looking at the crop of MPs we have sitting in Parliament at the moment I wouldn't trust them to make any more of an informed and reasoned decision than the public at large. I am afraid you are displaying just the sort of arrogance I was referring to.
    It is in fact, the classical argument against democracy, which great thinkers from Plato onwards have advanced.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,722
    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    Not if one believes that one is infallible.
  • Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

    Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.
    Heathrow?
    Landed back at Stansted. Got to feel for those poor buggers. Nearly 3 hours in the air and right back where they started.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,611
    edited October 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Who decides who is "wrong?"
    Basically the working classes can be allowed a vote provided it is for things they support which a typical Islington dinner party or Guardian leader writer might support eg nationalising the railways or putting more money into the NHS or increasing corporation tax.

    However where the working classes have an 'unenlightened' opinion like wanting to leave the EU and control immigration or supporting the death penalty then decisions are best left to their more educated liberal superiors
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    Not if one believes that one is infallible.
    How can I tell if I'm infallible? Is there an app for that?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,823
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    Not if one believes that one is infallible.
    How can I tell if I'm infallible? Is there an app for that?
    - Alexa, am I infallible?
    - No, you're in Los Angeles.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    If you gov could accurately predict EU referendum voting intentions remain would have won by 4 per cent as per their final poll released at 10pm on 23 June 2016 - and Brexit wouldn't be happening.

    We can't really run things and change things on the basis of opinion polls - Mrs May made that mistake last summer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited October 2017

    Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

    Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.
    Heathrow?
    Landed back at Stansted. Got to feel for those poor buggers. Nearly 3 hours in the air and right back where they started.
    Indeed. Meanwhile RYR119 has spent an hour watching the lights of Dublin from a distance.

    https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR119

    Edit: looks like it's going to have a go at landing now though :smile:
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    Not if one believes that one is infallible.
    How can I tell if I'm infallible? Is there an app for that?
    - Alexa, am I infallible?
    - No, you're in Los Angeles.
    "Who's Alexa?" :lol:
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    Maybe Ireland could get its dues off Apple, pay it to the UK as recompense for our support for their banking sector in 2009 and 2010 - and we could give that to the EU. Cos if no deal may be bad for the EU - it's even worse for the Republic.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited October 2017
    For British hand egg fans...

    Former Sky Sports presenter Kevin Cadle, the face of NFL coverage in the UK, dies aged 62

    Sky's coverage of the NFL has never been as good since they gave him the heave-ho.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    What we seem to be heading towards is a situation where no one can actually govern the country.

    I find that extremely dangerous.

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    Not if one believes that one is infallible.
    are you the next pope or the (new) messiah?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    brendan16 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    Maybe Ireland could get its dues off Apple, pay it to the UK as recompense for our support for their banking sector in 2009 and 2010 - and we could give that to the EU. Cos if no deal may be bad for the EU - it's even worse for the Republic.

    We didn't bail out the Irish because it was good for them, we did because if we hadn't every British bank would have ended up like Northern Rock. It was self interest in action.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

    Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.
    Heathrow?
    Landed back at Stansted. Got to feel for those poor buggers. Nearly 3 hours in the air and right back where they started.
    I didn't know than Ryanair owned enough fuel for a return journey.

    I expect the passengers will be charged for the return trip.
    :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,823
    edited October 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    brendan16 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    Maybe Ireland could get its dues off Apple, pay it to the UK as recompense for our support for their banking sector in 2009 and 2010 - and we could give that to the EU. Cos if no deal may be bad for the EU - it's even worse for the Republic.

    We didn't bail out the Irish because it was good for them, we did because if we hadn't every British bank would have ended up like Northern Rock. It was self interest in action.
    And Ireland's already paid the UK over £350m in interest on the loan.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-pays-more-than-400m-in-interest-on-uk-bailout-loan-1.3053791
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    Not if one believes that one is infallible.
    are you the next pope or the (new) messiah?
    Are they mutually exclusive?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Re Vauxhall, they were bought by PSA in August, Brexit could be an excuse for redundancies, but the new owners might find it easier to close a UK plant rather than one of their French or German operations. I don't know how productivity rates at Ellesmere Port compare with PSA's other operations, but that also has a bearing on any decision.

    Given the closeness of the Referendum results, the politicians are in a glorious mess of Cameron's devising yet until last weekend there had been little divergence from the 52:48 split on the day. It is possible that sentiment has shifted but until other polls from other firms move I would suggest that the case is not proven.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
    Different Vauxhall, Shirley?
  • Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
    Different Vauxhall, Shirley?
    Shirley is in the Midlands :)
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited October 2017

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    philiph said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ally_B said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.
    So everyone's wrong but you ?
    Yep, arrogance.....
    :smile:

    Not in the least.

    I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

    Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.
    You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.
    Don't you think that attitude is just a tiny bit dangerous?
    Not if one believes that one is infallible.
    are you the next pope or the (new) messiah?
    Are they mutually exclusive?
    I believe that they are but then I'm an atheist.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
    Different Vauxhall, Shirley?
    Shirley is in the Midlands :)
    It Shirley is!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    That way to the cliff >>>
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
    Different Vauxhall, Shirley?
    Where's this one then
  • TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    That way to the cliff >>>
    EU: "Give us your money or else!" :lol:
  • TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    The problem is that the Eurocrats have always had the whole thing the wrong way round. If they want money from us they should say how much they want, not say we have to tell them how much we think we should pay.

    Mind you if our lot had any sense they should have said £3.50 and made the EU come back with a counter offer. The EU doesn't seem to want to 'aggle.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    That way to the cliff >>>
    We should know our way there. That's where all negotiating is done.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    That way to the cliff >>>
    EU: "Give us your money or else!" :lol:
    or else what?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
    Different Vauxhall, Shirley?
    Where's this one then
    Ellesmere Port, I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    The problem is that the Eurocrats have always had the whole thing the wrong way round. If they want money from us they should say how much they want, not say we have to tell them how much we think we should pay.

    Mind you if our lot had any sense they should have said £3.50 and made the EU come back with a counter offer. The EU doesn't seem to want to 'aggle.
    The truth is that we've both been shit.

    They have been extraordinarily narrow in their focus, and seem determined to extract a large "settlement" from us.

    We started with a terrible attitude, that got everybody's backs up.

    If Mrs May had made her Florence speech on day one, and made the whole thing more "it's not you, it's me", we might be in a better place.

    And if the Commission had been able to be a bit more far sighted about the fact that they lose from no deal too.

    Ultimately, though, as I've always said, Brexit should be seen as a process, not as a single event.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Re Vauxhall, they were bought by PSA in August, Brexit could be an excuse for redundancies, but the new owners might find it easier to close a UK plant rather than one of their French or German operations. I don't know how productivity rates at Ellesmere Port compare with PSA's other operations, but that also has a bearing on any decision.

    Given the closeness of the Referendum results, the politicians are in a glorious mess of Cameron's devising yet until last weekend there had been little divergence from the 52:48 split on the day. It is possible that sentiment has shifted but until other polls from other firms move I would suggest that the case is not proven.
    There was an article on the news about it yesterday. Apparently productivity at Ellesmere Port is atrocious compared to the French and German plants. The Vauxhall management said that the decision to cut jobs had nothing at all to do with Brexit but everything to do with trying to improve productivity before a decision is made on where to build the new Astra in January. They have been told by the PSA management that it is all down to improving productivity.

    They also have a problem because the types of cars they are now making are plummeting in sales across Europe as they are being superseded by SUVs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,397
    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    This thread is the definition of wishful thinking.

    Member of establishment / elite uses data set to claim oiks are wrong in magazine that has a definite agenda.

    I'm inclined to think that, if asked again in an actual polling booth, most people would tick the "oi mate, didn't you hear me the first time?" box.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    The problem is that the Eurocrats have always had the whole thing the wrong way round. If they want money from us they should say how much they want, not say we have to tell them how much we think we should pay.

    Mind you if our lot had any sense they should have said £3.50 and made the EU come back with a counter offer. The EU doesn't seem to want to 'aggle.
    It's a dance isn't it. How much do you want? Everything you owe us? Done. How much is that, show us your sums. You show us yours etc etc.

    Personally I think £3.50 is way too much. What about all the money we've put in and now won't see the benefit of.

    The EU is a busted flush and the medium/ long term returns from investing in a future relationship are illusory.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
    Different Vauxhall, Shirley?
    Where's this one then
    Ellesmere Port, I think.
    Too far up-stream to be at Vauxhall then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum? Surely it can't be right to foist something on us that that we don't want and rather childish to say 'you should have tought about that sooner'.

    I heard a mini vox pop from Vauxhall car workers where some bad tempered folk blamed Brexit. Yet more grist to the mill

    Better that than blame your own work ethic, eh? They're all the same in South London.
    Different Vauxhall, Shirley?
    Where's this one then
    Ellesmere Port, I think.
    Too far up-stream to be at Vauxhall then.
    I think so :lol:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The boundary review proposals have been released:

    https://www.bce2018.org.uk/
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:

    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.

    The burden of the funding shortfall when we leave will substantially fall on Germany. I cannot bring myself to be polite about your suggested approach to a negotiation, so I'll say no more.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum?

    Er, that seems a bit premature at this point. Maybe if we get to 65-35
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,823

    So Europe bails out our PM and the DUP.

    Interesting.

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/920065863432187904
  • TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    That way to the cliff >>>
    EU: "Give us your money or else!" :lol:
    or else what?
    No deal
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AndyJS said:

    The boundary review proposals have been released:

    https://www.bce2018.org.uk/

    When do we start getting the juicy analysis?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    TGOHF said:

    Kinda sad that remainders have these lofty ideals about the EU....



    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/920044719324921857

    OK then, let's take it all off the table - and see how that shakes things up.....
    Has the money ever really been on the table? Isn't that what the Eurocrats are moaning about? However, I agree with the principle behind what you suggest - we should say clearly that we have no intention of discussing money until adequate progress has been made in discussing what we might get for anything that we deign to offer.
    That way to the cliff >>>
    EU: "Give us your money or else!" :lol:
    or else what?
    No deal
    We might as well go now then, bye. (exit stage right)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    AndyJS said:
    "DO NOT WAAAANT!"
    If the boundary changes happen, which they won't (DUP lose 2 for a start), I will offer you 1000-1 odds on Jeremy getting another seat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:
    "DO NOT WAAAANT!"
    If the boundary changes happen, which they won't (DUP lose 2 for a start), I will offer you 1000-1 odds on Jeremy getting another seat.
    Meg Hillier could be forced out according to some commentators, to make way for JC.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    The boundary review proposals have been released:

    https://www.bce2018.org.uk/

    When do we start getting the juicy analysis?
    Anthony Wells of UKPR might have some analysis tomorrow.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Roger said:

    It looks like the people have changed their minds or at least are on their way to changing their minds. Shoudn't we therefore have another Referendum?

    Er, that seems a bit premature at this point. Maybe if we get to 65-35
    Credit where credit is due, the thread by OGH is headlined "might" be [changing] and ends with "we need more polling".

    Which makes one feel that Roger has jumped the gun somewhat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2017
    Proposed London constituency names that are different to the current ones:

    Barking & Beckton
    Battersea & Clapham
    Bexley & Sidcup
    Brixton & Vauxhall
    Camden & St Pancras
    Chingford & Woodford
    Croydon South East
    Croydon South West
    Dulwich & Sydenham
    Ealing & Acton
    Eltham & Welling
    Enfield
    Erith & Crayford
    Feltham & Hounslow
    Finchley & Enfield Southgate
    Finsbury Park & Stoke Newington
    Greenford & Sudbury
    Greenwich & Deptford
    Hackney Central
    Hammersmith & Fulham
    Hampstead
    Harrow North
    Harrow South & Kenton
    Hillingdon & Uxbridge
    Ilford North & Wanstead
    Isleworth, Brentford & Chiswick
    Islington
    Kensington & Chelsea
    Kilburn
    Lewisham & Catford
    Leyton & Stratford
    Mitcham & Norbury
    Norwood & Thornton Heath
    Poplar & Canning Town
    Shoreditch & Bethnal Green
    Southall & Heston
    Stepney & Bow
    Streatham & Brixton South
    Wandsworth & Putney
    Wembley
    Willesden & Shepherd's Bush
    Woolwich
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2017
    Broxtowe becomes Broxtowe & Hucknall under the boundary proposals. Beeston gets moved into Nottingham South.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    Great header.

    Another set of reasons why Brexit will not happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    AndyJS said:

    Broxtowe becomes Broxtowe & Hucknall under the boundary proposals. Beeston gets moved into Nottingham South.

    None of this is going to happen though is it?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017
    https://www.thetimesbrief.co.uk/users/39175-the-brief-team/posts/21212-duke-of-westminster-s-8bn-fortune-escapes-inheritance-tax

    "The business assets of the Grosvenor Estate are held in trusts to maintain continuity of ownership between generations and not to avoid inheritance tax.”

    I like the way "continuity of ownership between generations" is how they legitimize their use of trusts, while "avoid(ing) inheritance tax" is a smear they don't want to be associated with.

    Holding land hostage over generations ain't legitimate.

    And a 6% tax on assets every 10 years is nothing relative to the expected growth in the value of those assets over 10 years, even after inflation.

    The tories should go hard on this illegitimate old money. Standing for the few against the many is going to consign them to electoral oblivion.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    "DO NOT WAAAANT!"
    If the boundary changes happen, which they won't (DUP lose 2 for a start), I will offer you 1000-1 odds on Jeremy getting another seat.
    Meg Hillier could be forced out according to some commentators, to make way for JC.
    God would be forced out were he a Labour member. "God" is interchangeable for any other being dead or alive, real or imaginary, straight or LBGT (or any similar classification), man or mouse; put simply, JC is a supersta, a rock sta, a gangsta, a fraudsta, whatever kind of sta you wan him to be. Lord love da man. He is my saviour, I worship him. I gotta lie down now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,956
    I'm not at all sure that's their primary motivation.
    Perhaps more likely the fear that China buys Bombardier, and becomes real competition for the Airbus/Boeing duopoly a few years earlier than will otherwise be the case.

    But the politics of it are indeed interesting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,956
    Interesting commentary on the meeting from Kuenssberg:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41642052
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    FF43 said:

    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.

    The burden of the funding shortfall when we leave will substantially fall on Germany. I cannot bring myself to be polite about your suggested approach to a negotiation, so I'll say no more.
    I think that if remainers think we should pay the EU Brexit Bill, then we should. We can introduce a Brexit Tax to pay for it. I am sure remainers would have no problem paying extra given the value of a deal to the UK economy and the disaster of no deal (so they say).

    Given a 1p rise in income tax raises only about 4.5 billion a year and the EU apparently want 70 billion, then we need to raise income tax by 3p for every UK taxpayer for 5 years just to pay the EU what they want.

    Can we get confirmation from all remainers that they are happy to pay this Brexit Tax themselves?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017

    FF43 said:

    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.

    The burden of the funding shortfall when we leave will substantially fall on Germany. I cannot bring myself to be polite about your suggested approach to a negotiation, so I'll say no more.
    I think that if remainers think we should pay the EU Brexit Bill, then we should. We can introduce a Brexit Tax to pay for it. I am sure remainers would have no problem paying extra given the value of a deal to the UK economy and the disaster of no deal (so they say).

    Given a 1p rise in income tax raises only about 4.5 billion a year and the EU apparently want 70 billion, then we need to raise income tax by 3p for every UK taxpayer for 5 years just to pay the EU what they want.

    Can we get confirmation from all remainers that they are happy to pay this Brexit Tax themselves?
    oooh, I like that.

    "The brexit tax"

    Obviously your post is complete bollocks ("can we get confirmation from all remainers" wtf?), but I can see the "brexit tax" becoming a term banded about a lot over the next couple of years.

    Even an eventual super-soft brexit is likely to hammer tax receipts as the city shrivels and we have a few more quarters of business paralysis.

    Pity the chancellor.

    Increased borrowing and/or tax rises are inevitable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,956
    If this Guardian article is correct, the EU leaders that matter are determined to see British capitulation before any trade talks. Barnier has been given his instructions:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/16/brussels-trip-by-pm-fails-to-unblock-stalemate-as-both-sides-harden-stance

    The 'process' does not seem to be proceeding, even if it is 'accelerating'.
    How many games of high speed chicken end up with a collision... and how much should it concern us that our vehicle is less crash proof than that of the EU ?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.

    The burden of the funding shortfall when we leave will substantially fall on Germany. I cannot bring myself to be polite about your suggested approach to a negotiation, so I'll say no more.
    I think that if remainers think we should pay the EU Brexit Bill, then we should. We can introduce a Brexit Tax to pay for it. I am sure remainers would have no problem paying extra given the value of a deal to the UK economy and the disaster of no deal (so they say).

    Given a 1p rise in income tax raises only about 4.5 billion a year and the EU apparently want 70 billion, then we need to raise income tax by 3p for every UK taxpayer for 5 years just to pay the EU what they want.

    Can we get confirmation from all remainers that they are happy to pay this Brexit Tax themselves?
    oooh, I like that.

    "The brexit tax"

    Obviously your post is complete bollocks ("can we get confirmation from all remainers" wtf?), but I can see the "brexit tax" becoming a term banded about a lot over the next couple of years.

    Even an eventual super-soft brexit is likely to hammer tax receipts as the city shrivels and we have a few more quarters of business paralysis.

    Pity the chancellor.

    Increased borrowing and/or tax rises are inevitable.
    Well that is nice, but I am talking about funding the costs of the EU Brexit demand, not dealing with future tax requirements etc.

    So are you prepared to pay it yourself? Or does your commitment to soft Brexit only work if someone else has to pay for it?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.

    The burden of the funding shortfall when we leave will substantially fall on Germany. I cannot bring myself to be polite about your suggested approach to a negotiation, so I'll say no more.
    I think that if remainers think we should pay the EU Brexit Bill, then we should. We can introduce a Brexit Tax to pay for it. I am sure remainers would have no problem paying extra given the value of a deal to the UK economy and the disaster of no deal (so they say).

    Given a 1p rise in income tax raises only about 4.5 billion a year and the EU apparently want 70 billion, then we need to raise income tax by 3p for every UK taxpayer for 5 years just to pay the EU what they want.

    Can we get confirmation from all remainers that they are happy to pay this Brexit Tax themselves?
    oooh, I like that.

    "The brexit tax"

    Obviously your post is complete bollocks ("can we get confirmation from all remainers" wtf?), but I can see the "brexit tax" becoming a term banded about a lot over the next couple of years.

    Even an eventual super-soft brexit is likely to hammer tax receipts as the city shrivels and we have a few more quarters of business paralysis.

    Pity the chancellor.

    Increased borrowing and/or tax rises are inevitable.
    Well that is nice, but I am talking about funding the costs of the EU Brexit demand, not dealing with future tax requirements etc.

    So are you prepared to pay it yourself? Or does your commitment to soft Brexit only work if someone else has to pay for it?
    Where to start?

    I'll tell you what. What if I said yes?

    What if all of the people who voted remain said yes?

    The implication of your post is you'd be happy with a soft brexit so long as someone else pays. I'm calling bullsh*t.

    In your posts, you appear to approach brexit as a culture war where getting those other people you don't like to pay money to someone else, bringing about a settlement you're fundamentally unhappy with is some kind of victory.

    It's bullsh*t.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    FF43 said:

    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.

    The burden of the funding shortfall when we leave will substantially fall on Germany. I cannot bring myself to be polite about your suggested approach to a negotiation, so I'll say no more.
    I think that if remainers think we should pay the EU Brexit Bill, then we should. We can introduce a Brexit Tax to pay for it. I am sure remainers would have no problem paying extra given the value of a deal to the UK economy and the disaster of no deal (so they say).

    Given a 1p rise in income tax raises only about 4.5 billion a year and the EU apparently want 70 billion, then we need to raise income tax by 3p for every UK taxpayer for 5 years just to pay the EU what they want.

    Can we get confirmation from all remainers that they are happy to pay this Brexit Tax themselves?
    I can't speak for anyone but myself but I for one won't be happy to pay into the EU after we have lost the benefits of membership. If you have a plan to avoid it I am all ears. But this is clearly a situation caused by the leavers rather than the remainers.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Pong said:



    Where to start?

    I'll tell you what. What if I said yes?

    What if all of the people who voted remain said yes?

    The implication of your post is you'd be happy with a soft brexit so long as someone else pays. I'm calling bullsh*t.

    In your posts, you appear to approach brexit as a culture war where getting those other people you don't like to pay money to someone else, bringing about a settlement you're fundamentally unhappy with is some kind of victory.

    It's bullsh*t.

    I am very happy with a hard Brexit and think we should refuse to pay the EU anything. I just want to ensure that all those people who criticise the Government for 'messing up the Brexit negotiations' are happy to pay up themselves to get a 'soft' Brexit, rather than assuming that this sum can just be added to the national debt and passed on to the next generation, which is an utterly dishonest way to proceed.

    Of course, if there was a Brexit Tax everyone including leavers would pay. It would be a fundamentally honest way of resolving the debate on the costs of soft Brexit.

    I think you know that if there was a second referendum, question 'Are you happy to agree to a tax increase of 3p for five years in return for a free trade agreement with the EU?' then we wouldn't have to worry much about the pollsters margin of error.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    The Germans in particular are playing this hardball. Which suggests to me the money is less important to them than the principle. The Tories are definitely screwing this up, but it isn't easy. If money is the important thing, it's easier - you pay them.

    The burden of the funding shortfall when we leave will substantially fall on Germany. I cannot bring myself to be polite about your suggested approach to a negotiation, so I'll say no more.
    I think that if remainers think we should pay the EU Brexit Bill, then we should. We can introduce a Brexit Tax to pay for it. I am sure remainers would have no problem paying extra given the value of a deal to the UK economy and the disaster of no deal (so they say).

    Given a 1p rise in income tax raises only about 4.5 billion a year and the EU apparently want 70 billion, then we need to raise income tax by 3p for every UK taxpayer for 5 years just to pay the EU what they want.

    Can we get confirmation from all remainers that they are happy to pay this Brexit Tax themselves?
    oooh, I like that.

    "The brexit tax"

    Obviously your post is complete bollocks ("can we get confirmation from all remainers" wtf?), but I can see the "brexit tax" becoming a term banded about a lot over the next couple of years.

    Even an eventual super-soft brexit is likely to hammer tax receipts as the city shrivels and we have a few more quarters of business paralysis.

    Pity the chancellor.

    Increased borrowing and/or tax rises are inevitable.
    Well that is nice, but I am talking about funding the costs of the EU Brexit demand, not dealing with future tax requirements etc.
    Part 2.

    Without access to the European market, the economy is screwed.

    Living standards will fall. Taxes will rise. For leavers & remainers alike.

    Surely you understand that?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693



    I just want to ensure that all those people who criticise the Government for 'messing up the Brexit negotiations' are happy to pay up themselves to get a 'soft' Brexit

    Why?

    If such an absurd request was even possible, what would you have achieved?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    Monarch repatriation flights successfully completed this morning. Now for the row over the £60m bill.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/tour-operators-cover-monarch-repatriation-bill/
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    15 year terms for new members of the HoL sounds like a great idea, but what about new hereditary peers? Forced seppuku after 15 years? :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

    Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.
    Heathrow?
    Landed back at Stansted. Got to feel for those poor buggers. Nearly 3 hours in the air and right back where they started.
    That looked no fun - an hour and a half going round in circles looking at where they’re supposed to be going, one half hearted attempt at an approach then back to where they started! Massive storm right over the field at Dublin by all accounts, bit of a nightmare for everyone.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    edited October 2017

    15 year terms for new members of the HoL sounds like a great idea, but what about new hereditary peers? Forced seppuku after 15 years? :)

    I think I am right in saying there are no living newly created hereditary peers (except the Royals for whom different rules apply anyway). The newest post for anyone else is I believe Earl of Stockton in 1984? Since the 1970s, life peerages have been preferred.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,230
    Most Governments suffer polling unpopularity in their midterms as they seek to implement the most difficult phases of their programme, but that doesn't mean they abandon their manifesto.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    ydoethur said:

    15 year terms for new members of the HoL sounds like a great idea, but what about new hereditary peers? Forced seppuku after 15 years? :)

    I think I am right in saying there are no living newly created hereditary peers (except the Royals for whom different rules apply anyway). The newest post for anyone else is I believe Earl of Stockton in 1984? Since the 1970s, life peerages have been preferred.
    I think you’re right. When a current hereditary peer passes on, there’s a by-election held, in which the current title-holders of the old hereditary peerages from the same party as the deceased peer may stand and may vote. The elected peer then takes their seat in the Lords for life.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_House_of_Lords
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,230
    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    The big problem for that is the previous "status quo" is off the table.

    Not only Dave's deal, but if Verhofstadht is to be believed the British opt-outs too.

    Polling should test whether the UK public would prefer to persist with Brexit or go "all in" to the EU with the euro and schengen as well.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    The big problem for that is the previous "status quo" is off the table.

    Not only Dave's deal, but if Verhofstadht is to be believed the British opt-outs too.

    Polling should test whether the UK public would prefer to persist with Brexit or go "all in" to the EU with the euro and schengen as well.
    I don't think the status quo is off the table just yet. You might be right though.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    You're good. (Assuming you aren't actually Boris flying a kite on here.)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    The big problem for that is the previous "status quo" is off the table.

    Not only Dave's deal, but if Verhofstadht is to be believed the British opt-outs too.

    Polling should test whether the UK public would prefer to persist with Brexit or go "all in" to the EU with the euro and schengen as well.
    I don't think the status quo is off the table just yet. You might be right though.
    who's leading the charge to ask us to stay in ?

    we cant go back to May 2016
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    You're good. (Assuming you aren't actually Boris flying a kite on here.)
    It's good but is still saying to the GBP: you got it wrong. Step forward JRM at that point.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    The big problem for that is the previous "status quo" is off the table.

    Not only Dave's deal, but if Verhofstadht is to be believed the British opt-outs too.

    Polling should test whether the UK public would prefer to persist with Brexit or go "all in" to the EU with the euro and schengen as well.
    I don't think the status quo is off the table just yet. You might be right though.
    But the status quo is a crap position that is untenable medium to long term.

    It coalesces around perpetually having a contrary view and existing outside the central power block of the EU.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    That's a very plausible looking article. Thing is of course that nobody seriously believes BoJo is a Brexit enthusiast. Like most populists, he looks for whatever hot button issue he thinks will advance his career at the moment whether he believes in it or not (or even understands it or not). Trump had his wall, Corbyn tuition fees, Boris Brexit.

    The only thought that occurs to me is that such a reverse ferret would royally piss off all leavers and not convert Remainers to thinking of him as a nice cuddly person - they will still surely hate his guts for causing the upheaval in the first place. Whether he would realise that I don't know.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, I agree. Mr. rkrkrk's suggestion is plausible, but would it not have a sudden impact on Boris' political life expectancy?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited October 2017
    ydoethur said:

    15 year terms for new members of the HoL sounds like a great idea, but what about new hereditary peers? Forced seppuku after 15 years? :)

    I think I am right in saying there are no living newly created hereditary peers (except the Royals for whom different rules apply anyway). The newest post for anyone else is I believe Earl of Stockton in 1984? Since the 1970s, life peerages have been preferred.
    Yes, but under the “transitional” arrangements agreed in 1999 that are still in place (a warning to Brexiteers) 92 heriditaries are still in the HoL. When one of them dies a new hereditary is elected to the house by the other peers and stays for life. That arrangement will presumably need to be modified.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, I agree. Mr. rkrkrk's suggestion is plausible, but would it not have a sudden impact on Boris' political life expectancy?

    In that case let's hope he does it! :smiley:

    I'm off to work. Have a good morning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, I agree. Mr. rkrkrk's suggestion is plausible, but would it not have a sudden impact on Boris' political life expectancy?

    Well quite. There may be some appetite for it among 10% of the political elite, but if anyone thinks they can just call off Brexit without seriously upsetting the 17,000,000 people who voted for it, then they’re in for a shock as Nigel Farage becomes prime minister!

    The more difficult actually Leaving is shown to become, the more it reinforces that we made the right choice to leave now before it becomes even worse.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,914
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    "I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII"

    You must have a very odd memory, as he did no such thing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    edited October 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    The big problem for that is the previous "status quo" is off the table.

    Not only Dave's deal, but if Verhofstadht is to be believed the British opt-outs too.

    Polling should test whether the UK public would prefer to persist with Brexit or go "all in" to the EU with the euro and schengen as well.
    I don't think the status quo is off the table just yet. You might be right though.
    There can be no return to the status quo. We would have no voice in the EU if we were to return. Even making the most basic points of clarification would be met with "Here they go again...just STFU won't you?"

    At home, many would look on the entire current generation of politicians with utter contempt, rightly scorned in turns for getting us tied into the EU so tightly we were never intended to leave and not having the intellectual wherewithall to extract us. A very significant minority would be prepared to listen to a new breed of politicians who would promise them they would not be so lily-livered. To them, every slight suffered - personally and as a nation - would still be the fault of the EU.

    "As you were" just isn't an option.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Sandpit, I was more thinking of Conservative MPs bringing him down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Mr. Sandpit, I was more thinking of Conservative MPs bringing him down.

    There’s that as well!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    The more difficult actually Leaving is shown to become, the more it reinforces that we made the right choice to leave now before it becomes even worse.

    You mean the more beneficial being a member is shown to become
This discussion has been closed.