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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov president Peter Kellner says “Brexit Buyers’ remorse” might be starting particularly amongst C2DEs

In an excellent article the former YouGov President, Peter Kellner, says there could be signs of buyer’s remorse amongst LEAVE voters particularly amongst the C2DEs. He based this in Prospect on an analysis of the trend to YouGov’s “in hindsight was referendum outcome right or wrong” tracker. Last Friday this showed “wrong” at its highest level with a 5% lead.

Read the full story here

Ave_it

Bored with Brexit!

Freggles

Brexit Sucks

williamglenn

Ave_it said:

Bored with Brexit!

There's only one way to stop talking about it.

TheScreamingEagles

Unfortunately it won't change anything, we're Leaving.

TheScreamingEagles

Freggles said:

Brexit Sucks

Like a hooker that swallowed a Dyson.

TheScreamingEagles

Tsk.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/920023782600986624

kle4

Maybe, but it is almost certainly too late, so the only impact will be punishment of the Tories, which if one really is most concerned with stopping Brexit, is hardly a comparable outcome.

RobD

Ave_it said:

Bored with Brexit!

How about another AV referendum?

Ave_it

Let's have another GE!

HYUFD

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll, with the lead for opponents of Brexit amongst the middle classes falling by 2%

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

Brexit Sucks

Like a hooker that swallowed a Dyson.

I've always preferred, 'that Bill Clinton is paying by the orgasm'.

TheScreamingEagles

Ave_it said:

Let's have another GE!

Sorry no, I don't have the energy for another election for at least another 5 years.

williamglenn

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

Pulpstar

Peter Kellner desperate to avoid Brexit.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

MikeSmithson

Ave_it said:

Let's have another GE!

Let's discuss what really matters - Watford & Burnley's success in. the EPL this season.

kle4

Ave_it said:

Let's have another GE!

No.

No.

No.

Freggles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

Brexit Sucks

Like a hooker that swallowed a Dyson.

A post-Brexit Dyson with extra noisy, energy consuming engine.

Pong

Merkel's been intentionally sabotaging British car owners.

Macron finds it funny.

Look at them. They're laughing at us.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/919998960714076161

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Yougov's final published poll in 2017 had a Tory lead of 7%.

Of course this is also a lot of snobbery due to the fact the EU referendum was the first time the working class C2DE voters beat the ABC1 voters since Harold Wilson's 1974 victories over Edward Heath

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Yougov's final published poll in 2017 had a Tory lead of 7%.

Of course this is also a lot of snobbery due to the fact the EU referendum was the first time the working class C2DE voters beat the ABC1 voters since Harold Wilson's 1974 victories over Edward Heath

But their seat model was spot on, and their subsequent polls have taken that into account now, so I'm more confident about their polling.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Yougov's final published poll in 2017 had a Tory lead of 7%.

Of course this is also a lot of snobbery due to the fact the EU referendum was the first time the working class C2DE voters beat the ABC1 voters since Harold Wilson's 1974 victories over Edward Heath

But their seat model was spot on, and their subsequent polls have taken that into account now, so I'm more confident about their polling.

A referendum is a straight question not a seat model but regardless even with Yougov Remain is not at 50% yet alone over it so there has been no major change

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

I hope that those aren't the only options on offer.

It sounds awfully like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.

Scott_P

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Source?

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

Ave_it said:

Let's have another GE!

Let's discuss what really matters - Watford & Burnley's success in. the EPL this season.

It certainly sounds a hell of a lot more interesting than more Brexit.

And I speak as someone who considers football to be very marginally less fascinating than watching paint dry.

TOPPING

I can't believe there is remorse from anyone.

What has happened? Nothing just a lot of hot air from politicians and the media. 5% is a who cares margin after the event. Same anti-establishment feeling now that Brexit is being run by the establishment.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Source?

Rees-Mogg came joint top of the last Luntz focus group for next Tory leader, Osborne never topped a poll or focus group of the public for next Tory leader and Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet minister

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

I hope that those aren't the only options on offer.

It sounds awfully like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.

I doubt they will be especially as the latter two are not longer in frontline politics

Sean_F

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

By 16, in fact.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Source?

Rees-Mogg came joint top of the last Luntz focus group for next Tory leader, Osborne never topped a poll or focus group of the public for next Tory leader and Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet minister

So no proper polling then, do you know what the MOE is on a focus group of 6 to 20?

Understood.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

By 16, in fact.

About the same number of seats John Curtice (pbuh) and his team underestimated the Tories in the 2015 exit poll, and he was lauded for his brilliance.

Ave_it

MikeSmithson said:

Ave_it said:

Let's have another GE!

Let's discuss what really matters - Watford & Burnley's success in. the EPL this season.

Agreed Mike big clubs come through!

When Watford win the PL it will be the first club to win the PL in a CON seat since er 2017!

(IS Chelsea still CON?)

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet minister

After Brexit the guacamole/mushy peas joke will have to be reversed.

houndtang

Keep voting till you give the right answer. But then as someone said a long time ago if voting changed anything they'd abolish it.

Ishmael_Z

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

Pulpstar

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

AndyJS

"Jeremy Corbyn's Islington North seat to be abolished in boundary shake-up"

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-islington-north-seat-to-be-abolished-in-boundary-shakeup-a3659846.html

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Source?

Rees-Mogg came joint top of the last Luntz focus group for next Tory leader, Osborne never topped a poll or focus group of the public for next Tory leader and Mandelson was regularly the most unpopular New Labour cabinet minister

So no proper polling then, do you know what the MOE is on a focus group of 6 to 20?

Understood.

Rees Mogg got his highest support in relatively working class Wales and NI in the last Survation on the Tory leadership
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Mail-On-Sunday-September-23rd-Data-Tables-1.pdf

Sean_F

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

Richard_Tyndall

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.

Perhaps but I would expect working class voters to at least prefer Rees Mogg who agrees with them on Brexit even though they disagree with him on austerity to Osborne who they disagree with on both Brexit and austerity. Though Osborne I would expect to poll better with middle class Londoners than Rees-Mogg

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

Lab gain Canterbury was the one that caused a lot of people embarrassment, it was largely pooh poohed.

Pong

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Sean_F

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.

O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

Lab gain Canterbury was the one that caused a lot of people embarrassment, it was largely pooh poohed.

Can I point out that I suggested Canterbury was a seat where Labour should be challenging...

...and I was asked what I was smoking?

It's a pity the rest of my predictions were so shit really otherwise I would have had a good election campaign.

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.

Perhaps but I would expect working class voters to at least prefer Rees Mogg who agrees with them on Brexit even though they disagree with him on austerity to Osborne who they disagree with on both Brexit and austerity. Though Osborne I would expect to poll better with middle class Londoners than Rees-Mogg

But they dislike the EU for completely different reasons. Feminists and evangelicals both disapprove of lingerie adverts in the tube, but that doesn't mean they like each other.

Nigelb

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

So everyone's wrong but you ?
Yep, arrogance.....

AndyJS

Emily Thornberry got pretty close to winning Canterbury for Labour in 2001.

RochdalePioneers

Problem is that having promised the people the moon on a stick, if said moon isn't produced voters are more likely to denounce the moon stick promising politicians and vote differently than to say " I got it wrong can I change my vote". Electorates rarely reward being told they voted wrong, as by elections results after legal challenges to tight / dodgy election wins have shown.

If the promise of Brexit turns to pain, voters won't blame themselves for believing snake oil salesmen. They'll blame the salesmen for not delivering

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Mail-On-Sunday-September-23rd-Data-Tables-1.pdf

It's interesting in that poll that Labour have picked up both Remain and Leave supporters since the 2017 election. Tory 2017 voters who back Remain are abandoning the party.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/920037130935656448

Recidivist

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Mail-On-Sunday-September-23rd-Data-Tables-1.pdf

It's interesting in that poll that Labour have picked up both Remain and Leave supporters since the 2017 election. Tory 2017 voters who back Remain are abandoning the party.

Good spot. I wonder if it will turn out that a lot of leavers were never really that fussed by it after all.

rcs1000

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Has still not landed anywhere.

It must be pretty scary to be on board.

ydoethur

RochdalePioneers said:

Problem is that having promised the people the moon on a stick, if said moon isn't produced voters are more likely to denounce the moon stick promising politicians and vote differently than to say " I got it wrong can I change my vote". Electorates rarely reward being told they voted wrong, as by elections results after legal challenges to tight / dodgy election wins have shown.

If the promise of Brexit turns to pain, voters won't blame themselves for believing snake oil salesmen. They'll blame the salesmen for not delivering

Cf Trump, Chavez and (should he ever win power) Corbyn.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Mail-On-Sunday-September-23rd-Data-Tables-1.pdf

It's interesting in that poll that Labour have picked up both Remain and Leave supporters since the 2017 election. Tory 2017 voters who back Remain are abandoning the party.

The Tories led with Leavers by 17% in that poll, Labour with Remainers by 20% but that poll also had about 2% of 2017 Tories going to UKIP

stevef

It doesnt matter. We had a referendum. We do not conduct government by opinion poll.

viewcode

Ishmael_Z said:

..if the polls are randomly distributed...

There are two cases where the polls weren't randomly distributed around the same mean. The 2016 EU referendum polls had a mode effect: the phone polls and the online polls were giving different results. Arguably the 2017 UK GE election had one as well: IIRC pollsters that used turnout models gave different results to those that didn't.

If there is a mode effect in place then you have to judge which mode is correct and discard the polls that use the other mode. The "poll of polls" concept doesn't help in these cases.

Wulfrun_Phil

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Back to Stansted I suggest.

Are there any betting markets on this?

viewcode

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

Lab gain Canterbury was the one that caused a lot of people embarrassment, it was largely pooh poohed.

Can I point out that I suggested Canterbury was a seat where Labour should be challenging...

...and I was asked what I was smoking?

You can. Groupthink is a powerful thing. BlackRook was one of the best analysts this site's produced but the YouGovSucks! shouting deflected even her.

ydoethur

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Back to Stansted I suggest.

Are there any betting markets on this?

Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

On topic, the increasing prominence of people like Rees-Mogg and John Redwood as cheerleaders of going over the cliff is just the catalyst we need to toxify Brexit with C2DE voters.

A surprising number of working class voters like Rees-Mogg, they certainly would prefer him to an ardent Remainer like Mandelson or Osborne

Well I don't know how surprised you are, but even in the most solid of working class areas there are plenty of Conservative voters. Class is important but it has never been the only factor in voting intentions. But if my experience is anything to go by the working class people most likely to have objections to the EU are the ones who are also most left wing and most likely to follow politics closely. So I suspect that none of the three politicians you name would meet with their approval at all.

Perhaps but I would expect working class voters to at least prefer Rees Mogg who agrees with them on Brexit even though they disagree with him on austerity to Osborne who they disagree with on both Brexit and austerity. Though Osborne I would expect to poll better with middle class Londoners than Rees-Mogg

But they dislike the EU for completely different reasons. Feminists and evangelicals both disapprove of lingerie adverts in the tube, but that doesn't mean they like each other.

Working class Leavers particularly dislike the EU because of free movement, Rees Mogg accepts that needs to end even if his primary motivation for disliking the EU is one of sovereignty and excessive regulation

viewcode

stevef said:

It doesnt matter. We had a referendum. We do not conduct government by opinion poll.

There is some irony there: what else is a referendum but a very large opinion poll?

TheScreamingEagles

Oooh electoral reform

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/920036419220987905

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh electoral reform

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/920036419220987905

From hereditary to 15 years... what is the world coming to?

Sean_F

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Problem is that having promised the people the moon on a stick, if said moon isn't produced voters are more likely to denounce the moon stick promising politicians and vote differently than to say " I got it wrong can I change my vote". Electorates rarely reward being told they voted wrong, as by elections results after legal challenges to tight / dodgy election wins have shown.

If the promise of Brexit turns to pain, voters won't blame themselves for believing snake oil salesmen. They'll blame the salesmen for not delivering

Cf Trump, Chavez and (should he ever win power) Corbyn.

It's in the nature of things that politicians will over-promise, and voters will elect those who over-promise.

For my part, I assume that there will be difficulties during the Brexit process, but most of us don't want to be part of a new nation called Europe, so we should disengage.

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Back to Stansted I suggest.

Are there any betting markets on this?

Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.

I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.

tpfkar

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Back to Stansted I suggest.

Are there any betting markets on this?

Maybe they are waiting for the UK-Ireland border issue to be sorted before landing, a live action demo of no deal?

Seriously, must be no fun at all to be on board that flight.

ydoethur

Well, they've missed Bristol. But they're taking a very strange route if they're heading for Stansted. Southampton perhaps? Or are they actually heading for France?

Edit - turned east, but well south of London. Can't think what they're doing unless it's Gatwick or Heathrow.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh electoral reform

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/920036419220987905

From hereditary to 15 years... what is the world coming to?

Fifteen year terms, I believe I suggested that for the country's first directly elected Dictator.

IanB2

Those dolphins sound more clued up than the Leave voters...

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Back to Stansted I suggest.

Are there any betting markets on this?

Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.

I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.

If I read the runes aright, it aborted takeoff. Either that or James T. Kirk was flying it, as its latest flight lasted four minutes.

Richard_Tyndall

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

So everyone's wrong but you ?
Yep, arrogance.....

Not in the least.

I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Back to Stansted I suggest.

Are there any betting markets on this?

Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.

I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.

If I read the runes aright, it aborted takeoff. Either that or James T. Kirk was flying it, as its latest flight lasted four minutes.

Saw something that said DAAR1 is a ground vehicle, hence I edited out my question to avoid looking stupid (I should know by now, it's too late )

MikeL

Only applies to new Peers - so will be 15 years before change has any impact at all.

Pong

stansted

Benpointer

Is it too late to change my bet to Gatwick?

I'm sure it's more fun watching the tracker than being on the plane!

MikeL

Re House of Lords - bad run for Con - Mawhinney went on Leave of Absence last week, Lloyd Webber retires today, Trumpington retires next week.

dixiedean

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.

O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.

Or grand coalition. Although that is unlikely. It would be better for the SPO, as in Germany, to go into opposition.

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/RYR293

Rough flight I'd imagine. Turning to land for third time now.

Given up trying to land?

Looks to me like the pilots going to Cardiff or somewhere.

Back to Stansted I suggest.

Are there any betting markets on this?

Bristol would appear the obvious destination on that trajectory and timeframe. But I would have thought that would be an absolute bastard of an airport to land on in these conditions given how exposed it is.

I'm with Wulfrun, back to Stansted imo.

If I read the runes aright, it aborted takeoff. Either that or James T. Kirk was flying it, as its latest flight lasted four minutes.

Saw something that said DAAR1 is a ground vehicle, hence I edited out my question to avoid looking stupid (I should know by now, it's too late )

Well, the aircraft appears to be turning north, so maybe it is Stansted. Strange route though. Will surely take it right over London and through the edge of the storm?

Ah well, I have a full teaching day tomorrow, so good night all. Thank you as ever for your company.

Benpointer

Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

MikeL

May has just announced two new Con Peers (for new ministers) but she still hasn't done a proper list of new political Peers.

Five new Crossbenchers have also just been announced.

Richard_Tyndall

Benpointer said:

Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.

HYUFD

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

So everyone's wrong but you ?
Yep, arrogance.....

Not in the least.

I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.

It is also dangerous, the EU referendum was the first time a majority of C2DE voters beat a majority of ABC1 voters since 1974 when Wilson beat Heath, working class voters will not be happy at having that victory snatched from them by a middle class elite

Benpointer

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.

Heathrow?

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Ooops, FlightAware has gone down now!

Its still dropping altitude so it looks like its Gatwick. Can't see it flying over central London that low.

Edit. Oops wrong. Turned north now

Rhubarb

Wouldn't Stansted be better for positioning for tomorrow?

Sean_F

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.

O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.

Or grand coalition. Although that is unlikely. It would be better for the SPO, as in Germany, to go into opposition.

Neither OVP nor SPO seem keen on grand coalition.

Benpointer

Rhubarb said:

Wouldn't Stansted be better for positioning for tomorrow?

Looks like you're right.

Meanwhile RYR119 LGW-DUB has been holding just outside Dublin for half an hour

Sunil_Prasannan

viewcode said:

stevef said:

It doesnt matter. We had a referendum. We do not conduct government by opinion poll.

There is some irony there: what else is a referendum but a very large opinion poll?

Superior sample size to any opinion poll. And I got to vote

Ally_B

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

So everyone's wrong but you ?
Yep, arrogance.....

Not in the least.

I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.

You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.

Sunil_Prasannan

AndyJS said:

"Jeremy Corbyn's Islington North seat to be abolished in boundary shake-up"

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-islington-north-seat-to-be-abolished-in-boundary-shakeup-a3659846.html

"DO NOT WAAAANT!"

dixiedean

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

C2DE voters still backing Brexit by a 12% margin signals very little and of course Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% in its final EU referendum poll anyway

You could also point out 2% more ABC1 voters now back Brexit than in the previous Yougov poll

But YouGov have improved their methodologies and analysis a lot since the 23rd of June 2016.

Hence their near spot seat model at the general election.

Their standard polling question, not so much.

And their seat model still underestimated the Conservatives by 14.

If the polls are randomly distributed, one of them is necessarily going to be the closest to the actual result. I wouldn't put too much weight on a single GE result.

I think it's pretty much a matter of luck who finishes closest.

To give YouGov some credit, they identified a number of completely unintuitive Labour gains. (And I would never have guessed the LDs would have run the Conservatives close in St Ives.)

St. Ives was no surprise to me. Canterbury definitely was.

O/T it looks like the Greens are definitely out of the Austrian Parliament. The SPO narrowly finished second, and the FPO get to choose whether to put the them or the OVP into office.

Or grand coalition. Although that is unlikely. It would be better for the SPO, as in Germany, to go into opposition.

Neither OVP nor SPO seem keen on grand coalition.

Indeed. Was merely pointing that the possibility existed. Not really in anyone's interests at the moment, but that could all change.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

So everyone's wrong but you ?
Yep, arrogance.....

Not in the least.

I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.

It is also dangerous, the EU referendum was the first time a majority of C2DE voters beat a majority of ABC1 voters since 1974 when Wilson beat Heath, working class voters will not be happy at having that victory snatched from them by a middle class elite

I think the danger here is treating groups like 'working class voters' or 'middle class elite'* as if there were some kind of cohesive units, each with a unified thought process. They aren't, people think and vote as individuals.

(*'Middle class elite' is an oxymoron surely?)

Sean_F

Ally_B said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

So everyone's wrong but you ?
Yep, arrogance.....

Not in the least.

I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.

You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.

Who decides who is "wrong?"

Richard_Tyndall

Ally_B said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Rats and ships...

https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/920027145912635393

Nah. He's just another one like Peter and Richard North. They think they are so massively clever that if they can't have Brexit exactly the way they think it should be then it is bound to be a disaster. They are as arrogant as the fanatical Remainers on the other side.

So everyone's wrong but you ?
Yep, arrogance.....

Not in the least.

I have already said many times that I will not get my preferred version of Brexit but that I absolutely accept that, still think it will be better than staying in and do not believe it will be a disaster. There is no arrogance there at all.

Those who are unwilling to bend to the will of the people, who think the people are 'wrong' or who do not think the people should be allowed to make such decisions are the ones who are arrogant.

You're the person who is wrong Richard. The opinion of the people is often 'wrong', eg death penalty, and that is why they shouldn't be asked to decide on complex matters because in these issues they will always answer in a knee jerk reaction without considering the consequences.

And yet the same people who you think are not intelligent enough to decide upon the issues are apparently intelligent enough to choose the person who should decide the issues for them?

Somewhat illogical I would suggest. And certainly looking at the crop of MPs we have sitting in Parliament at the moment I wouldn't trust them to make any more of an informed and reasoned decision than the public at large. I am afraid you are displaying just the sort of arrogance I was referring to.