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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov president Peter Kellner says “Brexit Buyers’ remorse

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    edited October 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    The more difficult actually Leaving is shown to become, the more it reinforces that we made the right choice to leave now before it becomes even worse.

    You mean the more beneficial being a member is shown to become
    Nope, I mean that the more difficult actually leaving the EU is shown to be, the more it will reinforce how much we were lied to by politicians of all sides over the last four decades. It wasn’t supposed to be a prison.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    You're good. (Assuming you aren't actually Boris flying a kite on here.)
    I promise I'm not Boris!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    "I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII"

    You must have a very odd memory, as he did no such thing.
    I think Boris would happily put that in an article.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    ydoethur said:



    That's a very plausible looking article. Thing is of course that nobody seriously believes BoJo is a Brexit enthusiast. Like most populists, he looks for whatever hot button issue he thinks will advance his career at the moment whether he believes in it or not (or even understands it or not). Trump had his wall, Corbyn tuition fees, Boris Brexit.

    The only thought that occurs to me is that such a reverse ferret would royally piss off all leavers and not convert Remainers to thinking of him as a nice cuddly person - they will still surely hate his guts for causing the upheaval in the first place. Whether he would realise that I don't know.

    I think it would only work if the Remainers were really desperate.
    There are probably a small number leavers he could get on side also from charisma/fear of Corbyn/patronage/changing their mind.

    If Boris can make it to the final 2, then the membership might well put him over the top.
    But I have no idea really.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,914
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    "I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII"

    You must have a very odd memory, as he did no such thing.
    I think Boris would happily put that in an article.
    He probably would, as Boris is a self-serving liar, if an entertaining one.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    You're good. (Assuming you aren't actually Boris flying a kite on here.)
    I promise I'm not Boris!
    Well Boris WOULD say that, wouldn't he? ;)


  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    BudG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    I don't know how serious you are, but I have wondered if that is the strategy he is following.
    I'm a little bit serious.

    I could imagine Boris doing this if he thought it was the only way to the top... or at the very least setting out a much softer Brexit strategy than TM is currently following.

    I'm imagining a Telegraph article like:

    "My friends, the great British public have a wonderful trait.

    When they feel they are being bullied or pushed around, they grit their teeth, dig their heels in harder, fight ever more ferociously, and frankly tend to triumph.

    But this instinct, has I suspect, led us astray.
    I remember when David Cameron announced Brexit meant WWIII, or George Osborne declared a punishment budget....and [bullshit anecdote about working class person saying up yours to elite politicians]

    But we now see that even though the Remain campaign misled us in many ways, they were on to something when they talked about economic damage.

    We have stood up to Europe. We have shown them our spine. we can now negotiate from a position of strength. As [classical historical reference] did...

    Europe know we will leave, and indeed we should leave if they will not talk.
    But I think we can now have the proper renegotiation we should have had two years ago....

    Etc.
    You're good. (Assuming you aren't actually Boris flying a kite on here.)
    I promise I'm not Boris!
    Well Boris WOULD say that, wouldn't he? ;)


    I am woefully ignorant (and proud) of classical/ancient history.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. rkrkrk, ah ha! So, you're Mr. Eagles.
  • Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, I agree. Mr. rkrkrk's suggestion is plausible, but would it not have a sudden impact on Boris' political life expectancy?

    Well quite. There may be some appetite for it among 10% of the political elite, but if anyone thinks they can just call off Brexit without seriously upsetting the 17,000,000 people who voted for it, then they’re in for a shock as Nigel Farage becomes prime minister!

    The more difficult actually Leaving is shown to become, the more it reinforces that we made the right choice to leave now before it becomes even worse.
    I know people keep on saying this - there's one poster here who repeats it like it's drawn from the Sermon on the Mount. What was the evidence at the last election people considered Brexit in a material way? Or is your view that people deemed it done and could therefore move on?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,230

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    rkrkrk said:

    For Bremorse to really get going it needs a champion.

    A leader who can successfully explain why he/she was wrong to back Brexit (perhaps they could blame Cameron for a shoddy renegotiation and say they overreacted to Remain lies).

    Over to you Boris...

    The big problem for that is the previous "status quo" is off the table.

    Not only Dave's deal, but if Verhofstadht is to be believed the British opt-outs too.

    Polling should test whether the UK public would prefer to persist with Brexit or go "all in" to the EU with the euro and schengen as well.
    I don't think the status quo is off the table just yet. You might be right though.
    There can be no return to the status quo. We would have no voice in the EU if we were to return. Even making the most basic points of clarification would be met with "Here they go again...just STFU won't you?"

    At home, many would look on the entire current generation of politicians with utter contempt, rightly scorned in turns for getting us tied into the EU so tightly we were never intended to leave and not having the intellectual wherewithall to extract us. A very significant minority would be prepared to listen to a new breed of politicians who would promise them they would not be so lily-livered. To them, every slight suffered - personally and as a nation - would still be the fault of the EU.

    "As you were" just isn't an option.
    Yes. The Rubicon has been crossed.

    There is no going back.
This discussion has been closed.