politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s by election previews

Three council by elections tonight: one Conservative defence and two Labour.@andrewteale's previews: https://t.co/reCxOxpPMB
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Uno0
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Dos0
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Tres0
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Pump?0
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comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany0 -
Pity for Germany, she is going on too long. That is not a brexit related point. As you go over eight years, towards ten and twelve, then the risk of damage from excessive tenure increases.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.0 -
Ocho0
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FDR says hello.philiph said:
Pity for Germany, she is going on too long. That is not a brexit related point. As you go over eight years, towards ten and twelve, then the risk of damage from excessive tenure increases.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.0 -
George who ?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.0 -
Bobby Mugabe waves backTheScreamingEagles said:
FDR says hello.philiph said:
Pity for Germany, she is going on too long. That is not a brexit related point. As you go over eight years, towards ten and twelve, then the risk of damage from excessive tenure increases.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yes, and he's more popular than Mark Reckless.Sandpit said:
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.0 -
Third greatest PM we never had, after Ken Clarke and Denis Healey.Alanbrooke said:
George who ?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.0 -
Good to hear GO doesn't want to do an EdwardII on Mark Reckless. Reassuring- especially for Mark Reckless I'm sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he's more popular than Mark Reckless.Sandpit said:
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.0 -
https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/910844156762841088welshowl said:Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.
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@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "0 -
When it comes to Mark Reckless I was quite restrained compared to a lot of Tories, which speaks volumes.welshowl said:
Good to hear GO doesn't want to do an EdwardII on Mark Reckless. Reassuring- especially for Mark Reckless I'm sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he's more popular than Mark Reckless.Sandpit said:
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.0 -
That’s a big ‘yet’.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he's more popular than Mark Reckless.Sandpit said:
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.
The reason Reckless’ defection went down like a cup of cold sick was the timing of it during the conference, which took everyone’s attention away and led to everyone wondering if there was another TPD out there somewhere. At least we (thankfully) know there’s only c*** Osborne out there.0 -
he's just one above Oswald MosleyTheScreamingEagles said:
Third greatest PM we never had, after Ken Clarke and Denis Healey.Alanbrooke said:
George who ?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.0 -
Well he's exiled here in Cardiff, though as far as I can see UKIP are pretty irrelevant here now and barring a revival as unlikely as Rubbertiti in Carry On Screaming are dead men walking electorally.TheScreamingEagles said:
When it comes to Mark Reckless I was quite restrained compared to a lot of Tories, which speaks volumes.welshowl said:
Good to hear GO doesn't want to do an EdwardII on Mark Reckless. Reassuring- especially for Mark Reckless I'm sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he's more popular than Mark Reckless.Sandpit said:
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.0 -
welshowl said:
Well he's exiled here in Cardiff, though as far as I can see UKIP are pretty irrelevant here now and barring a revival as unlikely as Rubbertiti in Carry On Screaming are dead men walking electorally.TheScreamingEagles said:
When it comes to Mark Reckless I was quite restrained compared to a lot of Tories, which speaks volumes.welshowl said:
Good to hear GO doesn't want to do an EdwardII on Mark Reckless. Reassuring- especially for Mark Reckless I'm sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he's more popular than Mark Reckless.Sandpit said:
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.
Reckless has left UKIP now.
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As ever all roads on Brexit lead to public opinion. We know A50 is revokable , we know that only takes a two clause bill, we know from the Abdication Act a bill can go through all it's stages and receive Assent in 13.5hrs.
Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
I'd forgotten!MarkHopkins said:welshowl said:
Well he's exiled here in Cardiff, though as far as I can see UKIP are pretty irrelevant here now and barring a revival as unlikely as Rubbertiti in Carry On Screaming are dead men walking electorally.TheScreamingEagles said:
When it comes to Mark Reckless I was quite restrained compared to a lot of Tories, which speaks volumes.welshowl said:
Good to hear GO doesn't want to do an EdwardII on Mark Reckless. Reassuring- especially for Mark Reckless I'm sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, and he's more popular than Mark Reckless.Sandpit said:
Is he still planning on going to conference, or has he realised he’s now about as popular as Mark Reckless?TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne got heckled, didn't stop the country wanting him in charge (of the economy.)Alanbrooke said:
comes as news she's at one with the countryTheScreamingEagles said:
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.
Reckless has left UKIP now.0 -
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Is it revocable? I was unaware. Just by one side or twenty seven plus one?YellowSubmarine said:As ever all roads on Brexit lead to public opinion. We know A50 is revokable , we know that only takes a two clause, we know from the Abdication Act a bill can go through all it's stages and receive Assent in 13.5hrs.
Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
Any scenario osborne could have become pm last year? All i can think is if the vote was 52 48 to remain and cameron stepped down. Osborne i guess would have run then0
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The really interesting thing about the reaction to tomorrow is that it's likely to be the first official confirmation that we will be paying a large amount of money to the EU. The rabid Brexiteers will consider this a betrayal, but the thing to watch will be how the uncommitted people in the middle react. It could be a significant moment.YellowSubmarine said:Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
A large majority want HMG to get on with it. There’d have to be a pretty big shift.YellowSubmarine said:As ever all roads on Brexit lead to public opinion. We know A50 is revokable , we know that only takes a two clause, we know from the Abdication Act a bill can go through all it's stages and receive Assent in 13.5hrs.
Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
It's not a divorce though. For it to be a divorce, the whole marriage (Union) would be going to be dissolved and all the member states would be figuring out how to distribute the common assets.YellowSubmarine said:
@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
We're leaving a club. Normally when you leave a club you cease to have any further claim on its assets or access to its benefits, but equally you cease to have any responsibility for its liabilities.
We can go down that path: we can simply leave at the end of March 2019 and not have to pay anything, but we won't have any more access to any of the club's benefits.
Ostensibly, we want to continue to have access to at least some of the club's benefits, either for a transitional period or perhaps some of them indefinitely. The club is willing to let us continue to have some of the benefits - but it's clear we can't have the same benefits we had as members, and if we want any benefits at all, we will have to pay something towards them.
It's not a divorce!0 -
Agree with that and public opinion can go either way but big swing against the EU is possible if they carry on as they have. No UK politician could agree to the ECJ having any influence over anyone living in the UKYellowSubmarine said:As ever all roads on Brexit lead to public opinion. We know A50 is revokable , we know that only takes a two clause, we know from the Abdication Act a bill can go through all it's stages and receive Assent in 13.5hrs.
Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
Esp with Poland wanting a trillion bucks in war reparations.welshowl said:
Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I were German I'd be a bit sparing with the jokey historical references to previous Chancellors.0 -
Very few people suggest a deal and no payments. Transition payments are not unexpected by many people.williamglenn said:
The really interesting thing about the reaction to tomorrow is that it's likely to be the first official confirmation that we will be paying a large amount of money to the EU. The rabid Brexiteers will consider this a betrayal, but the thing to watch will be how the uncommitted people in the middle react. It could be a significant moment.YellowSubmarine said:Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
Think it's not 100% clear because nobody's done it of course, but consensus is it takes 27 plus 1 unanimity.philiph said:
Is it revocable? I was unaware. Just by one side or twenty seven plus one?YellowSubmarine said:As ever all roads on Brexit lead to public opinion. We know A50 is revokable , we know that only takes a two clause, we know from the Abdication Act a bill can go through all it's stages and receive Assent in 13.5hrs.
Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
It would have had to been a 1975 style result for that to happen.spire2 said:Any scenario osborne could have become pm last year? All i can think is if the vote was 52 48 to remain and cameron stepped down. Osborne i guess would have run then
Dave would have been the undisputed master of the universe, winner of two general elections, three plebiscites, slayer of the Lib Dems, and the man who drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader.0 -
I am fairly confident in predicting a. that both Leave and Remain viewers will be eating their own feet in embarrassment in real time as they watch TM trying to do the statesmanlike thang and b. that what she says will be just complicated enough that it will take 12-24 hours for its contradictions and inadequacies to be fully understood. (cf. 10p tax rate, pasties, dementia). I hope I am wrong.williamglenn said:
The really interesting thing about the reaction to tomorrow is that it's likely to be the first official confirmation that we will be paying a large amount of money to the EU. The rabid Brexiteers will consider this a betrayal, but the thing to watch will be how the uncommitted people in the middle react. It could be a significant moment.YellowSubmarine said:Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
Thankswelshowl said:
Think it's not 100% clear because nobody's done it of course, but consensus is it takes 27 plus 1 unanimity.philiph said:
Is it revocable? I was unaware. Just by one side or twenty seven plus one?YellowSubmarine said:As ever all roads on Brexit lead to public opinion. We know A50 is revokable , we know that only takes a two clause, we know from the Abdication Act a bill can go through all it's stages and receive Assent in 13.5hrs.
Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
I agree with you William - I am not concerned about making fair payments but anything that is perceived by the voter to be extortinate will swing the ordinary voter against remain and the EUwilliamglenn said:
The really interesting thing about the reaction to tomorrow is that it's likely to be the first official confirmation that we will be paying a large amount of money to the EU. The rabid Brexiteers will consider this a betrayal, but the thing to watch will be how the uncommitted people in the middle react. It could be a significant moment.YellowSubmarine said:Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
If only he'd backed leave......TheScreamingEagles said:
It would have had to been a 1975 style result for that to happen.spire2 said:Any scenario osborne could have become pm last year? All i can think is if the vote was 52 48 to remain and cameron stepped down. Osborne i guess would have run then
Dave would have been the undisputed master of the universe, winner of two general elections, three plebiscites, slayer of the Lib Dems, and the man who drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader.0 -
UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the billsYellowSubmarine said:@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
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Ishmael_Z said:
Esp with Poland wanting a trillion bucks in war reparations.welshowl said:
Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I were German I'd be a bit sparing with the jokey historical references to previous Chancellors.0 -
It's will evoke more complex emotions than that: resentment accompanied by the realisation that we are in the weaker position. It will be the first sign of the deep humiliation to come.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree with you William - I am not concerned about making fair payments but anything that is perceived by the voter to be extortinate will swing the ordinary voter against remain and the EUwilliamglenn said:
The really interesting thing about the reaction to tomorrow is that it's likely to be the first official confirmation that we will be paying a large amount of money to the EU. The rabid Brexiteers will consider this a betrayal, but the thing to watch will be how the uncommitted people in the middle react. It could be a significant moment.YellowSubmarine said:Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
@rpjs I agree completely. I'm not a lawyer but from my reading on it our hard liabilities are very small indeed and if we just walked off the EU would have to either take us the World Court or impose trade sanctions. The only reason we are discussing this ' Divorce Bill ' is because as you say we aren't seeking a divorce.
Interesting briefing yesterday that'll never be an actual ' Divorce Bill ' by the way as both sides know it'll blow up the negotiations. The A50 agreement will list liabilities, a formula for calculating what they are worth and dispute resolution mechanism.0 -
This is a big moment for the Country but also the opposition.
Money offers and ECJ jurisdiction in the UK will require labour to come of the fence instead of trying to ride two horses at once.
Sets up the media for a weekend of intensity that will have considerable influence on public opinion.
I hope that Theresa pulls this off for the sake of the Country - she will need to be inspired but there are doubts she has the public speaking ability.
Lets all wait and see
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He backed what he thought was right, not what would be good for him personally.welshowl said:
If only he'd backed leave......TheScreamingEagles said:
It would have had to been a 1975 style result for that to happen.spire2 said:Any scenario osborne could have become pm last year? All i can think is if the vote was 52 48 to remain and cameron stepped down. Osborne i guess would have run then
Dave would have been the undisputed master of the universe, winner of two general elections, three plebiscites, slayer of the Lib Dems, and the man who drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader.
Unlike Boris.0 -
Thereby proving my point that of they move a job, they will find someone to fill it.Charles said:
My former employer tried to make me move to Frankfurt. I quit.Casino_Royale said:
Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.FF43 said:
They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.
I have inside information, and you are just wrong.
Sorry
What will kill London as a transactional centre I suspect is the compliance questionnaire that contains a question similar to "Are you accredited under Section XYZ?" Section XYZ accreditation is only available to EU firms. Firms don't want to explain why they aren't Section XYZ compliant, so they'll move the work to a part of the company that is. Their clients will demand it because their own customers ask for it. After a while everything gets processed under Section XYZ.0 -
I could have written that response as it is consistant with your negative views - indeed you sound as if you are hoping for humilation as you put it, to prove you are right.williamglenn said:
It's will evoke more complex emotions than that: resentment accompanied by the realisation that we are in the weaker position. It will be the first sign of the deep humiliation to come.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree with you William - I am not concerned about making fair payments but anything that is perceived by the voter to be extortinate will swing the ordinary voter against remain and the EUwilliamglenn said:
The really interesting thing about the reaction to tomorrow is that it's likely to be the first official confirmation that we will be paying a large amount of money to the EU. The rabid Brexiteers will consider this a betrayal, but the thing to watch will be how the uncommitted people in the middle react. It could be a significant moment.YellowSubmarine said:Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.
There will be no humilation in this for either side.0 -
They are both metaphors. Actually what we are doing is revoking a complex system of highly interdependent treaties. As that's not something that people relate to, we talk about membership clubs and divorces.rpjs said:
It's not a divorce though. For it to be a divorce, the whole marriage (Union) would be going to be dissolved and all the member states would be figuring out how to distribute the common assets.YellowSubmarine said:
@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
We're leaving a club. Normally when you leave a club you cease to have any further claim on its assets or access to its benefits, but equally you cease to have any responsibility for its liabilities.
We can go down that path: we can simply leave at the end of March 2019 and not have to pay anything, but we won't have any more access to any of the club's benefits.
Ostensibly, we want to continue to have access to at least some of the club's benefits, either for a transitional period or perhaps some of them indefinitely. The club is willing to let us continue to have some of the benefits - but it's clear we can't have the same benefits we had as members, and if we want any benefits at all, we will have to pay something towards them.
It's not a divorce!0 -
I think they’d be more concerned if it is an ongoing thing. Paying up to the end of the budget cycle (when certain liabilities get zeroed), while at the same time maintaining access for a transition period, doesn’t seem too unreasonable.williamglenn said:
The really interesting thing about the reaction to tomorrow is that it's likely to be the first official confirmation that we will be paying a large amount of money to the EU. The rabid Brexiteers will consider this a betrayal, but the thing to watch will be how the uncommitted people in the middle react. It could be a significant moment.YellowSubmarine said:Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.0 -
I agree with numerous posters that setting out *any* hard cash offer is a seminal moment in the process which will set off multiple and conflicting emotions in sections of the electorate which are too complex to predict. We're in Butterfly wings and Hurricanes Territory to some extent.
But the main dynamic is that £350m per week as well as being a lie was a gross figure. Even if it was true, which it wasn't, it was predicated on us paying nothing whatsoever in future. As of tomorrow and for the first time since the referendum Brexit backing politicans are going to have to start back tracking on this.
Which is what Boris' tantrum was about. If he's not careful he'll be in Clegg territory as he sits in a government that openly repudiates the £350m pw claim.0 -
Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League0
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Old news.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League
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I don't doubt it. He was wholly honourable. It was a shame he didn't arrive at the opposite conclusion. He'd have walked it and we'd all be in a different place.TheScreamingEagles said:
He backed what he thought was right, not what would be good for him personally.welshowl said:
If only he'd backed leave......TheScreamingEagles said:
It would have had to been a 1975 style result for that to happen.spire2 said:Any scenario osborne could have become pm last year? All i can think is if the vote was 52 48 to remain and cameron stepped down. Osborne i guess would have run then
Dave would have been the undisputed master of the universe, winner of two general elections, three plebiscites, slayer of the Lib Dems, and the man who drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader.
Unlike Boris.0 -
Your last sentence is the most sensible remark I've heard on Brexit for some time.Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a big moment for the Country but also the opposition.
Money offers and ECJ jurisdiction in the UK will require labour to come of the fence instead of trying to ride two horses at once.
Sets up the media for a weekend of intensity that will have considerable influence on public opinion.
I hope that Theresa pulls this off for the sake of the Country - she will need to be inspired but there are doubts she has the public speaking ability.
Lets all wait and see
I have no idea what is in the speech. I will listen to it, Barnier's reaction and then the fallout with a generous supply of popcorn.0 -
Reference the earlier discussion on Brexit, this extract from 'Hostage at the Table' (written by a theorist and practitioner of hostage negotiations, George Kohlrieser) struck me as very pertinent as to the current apparent impasse in the Brexit negotiations:
"Interests and needs = important distinction.
• Interests = transitory and superficial. Interests are tangible things that can be traded and compromised.
• Needs = more basic and enduring. Needs are intangible things that are not for trading, such as identity, security, respect, or recognition. The most conflict-provoking losses have to do with needs, and these needs may connect to deeper wounds.
"When human needs are also in conflict, resolving a conflict about interests will not make the conflict go away."
[NB not quite verbatim but almost - taken from my notes from the book]0 -
All of which is why May is making this speech on a Friday - take out the Trash day. They'll be two full and furious spin cycles before the public fully engage with the story on Monday.0
-
But it’s just for the transition, beyond that we shouldn’t pay for access.YellowSubmarine said:I agree with numerous posters that setting out *any* hard cash offer is a seminal moment in the process which will set off multiple and conflicting emotions in sections of the electorate which are too complex to predict. We're in Butterfly wings and Hurricanes Territory to some extent.
But the main dynamic is that £350m per week as well as being a lie was a gross figure. Even if it was true, which it wasn't, it was predicated on us paying nothing whatsoever in future. As of tomorrow and for the first time since the referendum Brexit backing politicans are going to have to start back tracking on this.
Which is what Boris' tantrum was about. If he's not careful he'll be in Clegg territory as he sits in a government that openly repudiates the £350m pw claim.0 -
We have had two illustrations in the last 3 years that the net/gross distinction is just too difficult for the public at large: there wasn't just the brexit bus, there was also this: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3237073/Cameron-Osborne-quietly-pay-1-7BILLION-bill-Brussels-dismisses-totally-unacceptable.htmlYellowSubmarine said:I agree with numerous posters that setting out *any* hard cash offer is a seminal moment in the process which will set off multiple and conflicting emotions in sections of the electorate which are too complex to predict. We're in Butterfly wings and Hurricanes Territory to some extent.
But the main dynamic is that £350m per week as well as being a lie was a gross figure. Even if it was true, which it wasn't, it was predicated on us paying nothing whatsoever in future. As of tomorrow and for the first time since the referendum Brexit backing politicans are going to have to start back tracking on this.
Which is what Boris' tantrum was about. If he's not careful he'll be in Clegg territory as he sits in a government that openly repudiates the £350m pw claim.
With good will on both sides, the divorce payments can be expressed in any settlement agreement in tediously complex accounting formulae which no one will bother to try to understand.0 -
Isn't that no new millions for the Greeks?welshowl said:
Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Thanks Dixie - it is time to stop remaining and leaving and look to practical solutions for everyone.dixiedean said:
Your last sentence is the most sensible remark I've heard on Brexit for some time.Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a big moment for the Country but also the opposition.
Money offers and ECJ jurisdiction in the UK will require labour to come of the fence instead of trying to ride two horses at once.
Sets up the media for a weekend of intensity that will have considerable influence on public opinion.
I hope that Theresa pulls this off for the sake of the Country - she will need to be inspired but there are doubts she has the public speaking ability.
Lets all wait and see
I have no idea what is in the speech. I will listen to it, Barnier's reaction and then the fallout with a generous supply of popcorn.
Whichever side loses this argument with the voter they will lose as well
I have my reservations for Theresa but post tomorrow and the next few days a big shift could take place either way.
Popcorn may be a good idea and also a win for Everton would help your mood no doubt0 -
I thought Boris' tantrum was about him becoming Prime Minister. He was surprised to find assumed allies that he hadn't bothered to contact, weren't going to follow him to the Bastille.YellowSubmarine said:I agree with numerous posters that setting out *any* hard cash offer is a seminal moment in the process which will set off multiple and conflicting emotions in sections of the electorate which are too complex to predict. We're in Butterfly wings and Hurricanes Territory to some extent.
But the main dynamic is that £350m per week as well as being a lie was a gross figure. Even if it was true, which it wasn't, it was predicated on us paying nothing whatsoever in future. As of tomorrow and for the first time since the referendum Brexit backing politicans are going to have to start back tracking on this.
Which is what Boris' tantrum was about. If he's not careful he'll be in Clegg territory as he sits in a government that openly repudiates the £350m pw claim.0 -
Yet less than one calendar year later his successor tried that trick - leading us all into Brexit Valhalla - and was promptly handed her arse on a plate by the same electorate. We've no earthly idea what a Tory PM leading the Leave campaign would have done to non Tory Leave voters and abstainers. Backing an incumbent Tory PM in a referendum certainly wouldn't have been a protest vote.welshowl said:
I don't doubt it. He was wholly honourable. It was a shame he didn't arrive at the opposite conclusion. He'd have walked it and we'd all be in a different place.TheScreamingEagles said:
He backed what he thought was right, not what would be good for him personally.welshowl said:
If only he'd backed leave......TheScreamingEagles said:
It would have had to been a 1975 style result for that to happen.spire2 said:Any scenario osborne could have become pm last year? All i can think is if the vote was 52 48 to remain and cameron stepped down. Osborne i guess would have run then
Dave would have been the undisputed master of the universe, winner of two general elections, three plebiscites, slayer of the Lib Dems, and the man who drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader.
Unlike Boris.0 -
I hadn't heard it before but could be big implications for Sky and BT subscription servicesTheScreamingEagles said:
Old news.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League
0 -
You're right- I hadn't expanded it on my phone and seen the "Keine". So Bild are saying no bew billions for the Greeks. Hmm bus worthy?Recidivist said:
Isn't that no new millions for the Greeks?welshowl said:
Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's a demand: "We need Merkel to be the iron Chancellor and not give more billions to Greece."welshowl said:
You're right- I hadn't expanded it on my phone and seen the "Keine". So Bild are saying no bew billions for the Greeks. Hmm bus worthy?Recidivist said:
Isn't that no new millions for the Greeks?welshowl said:
Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.TheScreamingEagles said:
In a few months they'll probably be demanding "Keine Extrawurst für Großbritannien"0 -
Our refuse and recycling day is ThursdayYellowSubmarine said:All of which is why May is making this speech on a Friday - take out the Trash day. They'll be two full and furious spin cycles before the public fully engage with the story on Monday.
0 -
A couple of our Europa League qualifiers were streamed live on Facebook. I was pleasantly impressed with the quality (of the stream, not the football).Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hadn't heard it before but could be big implications for Sky and BT subscription servicesTheScreamingEagles said:
Old news.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League
0 -
Things were going wrong for Cameron for some time. Foreign policy was being ignored and going very wrong. The entire prospectus was economic growth at any cost, in the hope that things will somehow work themselves out in the end. Housing policy was a disaster. We were set on a path of selling off our essential infrastructure to hostile nations. Public services were being obliterated. The welfare state was being dismantled. There were many, many problems. And, no party had any answer to them.TheScreamingEagles said:
He backed what he thought was right, not what would be good for him personally.welshowl said:
If only he'd backed leave......TheScreamingEagles said:
It would have had to been a 1975 style result for that to happen.spire2 said:Any scenario osborne could have become pm last year? All i can think is if the vote was 52 48 to remain and cameron stepped down. Osborne i guess would have run then
Dave would have been the undisputed master of the universe, winner of two general elections, three plebiscites, slayer of the Lib Dems, and the man who drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader.
Unlike Boris.
Brexit has solved precisely none of these problems, but it has at least put a brake on the course that we were on.
0 -
Competition drives down pricesdixiedean said:
A couple of our Europa League qualifiers were streamed live on Facebook. I was pleasantly impressed with the quality (of the stream, not the football).Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hadn't heard it before but could be big implications for Sky and BT subscription servicesTheScreamingEagles said:
Old news.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League
0 -
Well quite, but my point is that the "divorce" metaphor is particularly unhelpful as a divorce involves a) a complete dissolution of a relationship and b) broadly equal parties. In the case of Brexit the relationship will persist, just one party to it will withdraw, and that one party is not remotely equal to the sum of the other parties, WW2 nostalgia notwithstanding.FF43 said:
They are both metaphors. Actually what we are doing is revoking a complex system of highly interdependent treaties. As that's not something that people relate to, we talk about membership clubs and divorces.rpjs said:
It's not a divorce though. For it to be a divorce, the whole marriage (Union) would be going to be dissolved and all the member states would be figuring out how to distribute the common assets.YellowSubmarine said:
@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
We're leaving a club. Normally when you leave a club you cease to have any further claim on its assets or access to its benefits, but equally you cease to have any responsibility for its liabilities.
We can go down that path: we can simply leave at the end of March 2019 and not have to pay anything, but we won't have any more access to any of the club's benefits.
Ostensibly, we want to continue to have access to at least some of the club's benefits, either for a transitional period or perhaps some of them indefinitely. The club is willing to let us continue to have some of the benefits - but it's clear we can't have the same benefits we had as members, and if we want any benefits at all, we will have to pay something towards them.
It's not a divorce!0 -
I see the Remainers latest fantasy is that the UK declaring it will pay something to the EU will somehow result in a wholesale collapse of Leaver support in this country.
Delusional.0 -
Parliament Square in London Is Closer to Having First Female Statue https://nyti.ms/2ydB2ms0
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What would you call the idea that we will cut tariffs on food from Sierra Leone?Casino_Royale said:Delusional.
0 -
I disagree.YellowSubmarine said:I agree with numerous posters that setting out *any* hard cash offer is a seminal moment in the process which will set off multiple and conflicting emotions in sections of the electorate which are too complex to predict. We're in Butterfly wings and Hurricanes Territory to some extent.
But the main dynamic is that £350m per week as well as being a lie was a gross figure. Even if it was true, which it wasn't, it was predicated on us paying nothing whatsoever in future. As of tomorrow and for the first time since the referendum Brexit backing politicans are going to have to start back tracking on this.
Which is what Boris' tantrum was about. If he's not careful he'll be in Clegg territory as he sits in a government that openly repudiates the £350m pw claim.
The use of a gross figure (ignoring if one can for a moment the fact that it was the wrong gross figure) is consistent with their view that our future relationship would be one of an entirely disconnected country achieving a normal FTA with the EU. outside the Customs Union and the Single Market, outside the EEA and having no formal commitments to EU projects.
This is not a relationship I would prefer but there is a consistency with the basic principle of paying nothing to the EU.
Of course the idiotic bit is using a false figure for this gross payment. I am staggered that Boris has repeated it this week and is basically saying our saving in terms of contribution will be more than we ever paid.0 -
On Topic awful turnout figure in Homebrook. LT 10% at 5pm. Not what Lab were hoping for.0
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First instalment of the Brexit nightmare starts tomorrow. Remember, the EU will have no option but to accept our terms since "they have a trade surplus".
0 -
UK little fish.Sunil_Prasannan said:
UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the billsYellowSubmarine said:@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
EU big fish.
Cardboard box?0 -
May. Playing a weak hand, badly.0
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They need our protection moneybigjohnowls said:
UK little fish.Sunil_Prasannan said:
UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the billsYellowSubmarine said:@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
EU big fish.
Cardboard box?0 -
No single EU nation exports more than 17% of its products services to the UK.surbiton said:First instalment of the Brexit nightmare starts tomorrow. Remember, the EU will have no option but to accept our terms since "they have a trade surplus".
One soon to be former member has a significantly higher % at risk.
Turns out little Englanders are precisely that compared to the EU.0 -
Syrian Refugee Held in London Tube Bombing Is Released https://nyti.ms/2jQHI7M0
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I think the rise of illegal streams for free are the real competition. They are easy to find, though not for me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Competition drives down pricesdixiedean said:
A couple of our Europa League qualifiers were streamed live on Facebook. I was pleasantly impressed with the quality (of the stream, not the football).Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hadn't heard it before but could be big implications for Sky and BT subscription servicesTheScreamingEagles said:
Old news.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League
0 -
PB's already in full on Brexit-misery mode ahead of May's Florence speech I see...
Might give it a miss on here tomorrow.
See you on Saturday?0 -
You don't want to miss my morning thread.GIN1138 said:PB's already in full on Brexit-misery mode ahead of May's Florence speech I see...
Might give it a miss on here tomorrow.
See you on Saturday?0 -
Nah we need a deal with them so desperately we are prepared to pay it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They need our protection moneybigjohnowls said:
UK little fish.Sunil_Prasannan said:
UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the billsYellowSubmarine said:@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
EU big fish.
Cardboard box?0 -
I think I do...TheScreamingEagles said:
You don't want to miss my morning thread.GIN1138 said:PB's already in full on Brexit-misery mode ahead of May's Florence speech I see...
Might give it a miss on here tomorrow.
See you on Saturday?0 -
The quality is not great unless you have superfast though (so I am reliably informed!)foxinsoxuk said:
I think the rise of illegal streams for free are the real competition. They are easy to find, though not for me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Competition drives down pricesdixiedean said:
A couple of our Europa League qualifiers were streamed live on Facebook. I was pleasantly impressed with the quality (of the stream, not the football).Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hadn't heard it before but could be big implications for Sky and BT subscription servicesTheScreamingEagles said:
Old news.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League
0 -
GIN1138 said:
I think I do...TheScreamingEagles said:
You don't want to miss my morning thread.GIN1138 said:PB's already in full on Brexit-misery mode ahead of May's Florence speech I see...
Might give it a miss on here tomorrow.
See you on Saturday?0 -
Hence the reference to protection moneybigjohnowls said:
Nah we need a deal with them so desperately we are prepared to pay it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They need our protection moneybigjohnowls said:
UK little fish.Sunil_Prasannan said:
UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the billsYellowSubmarine said:@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
EU big fish.
Cardboard box?0 -
Three questions.
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter?
* 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now?
* 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
0 -
Well there's the issue. For ever closer union to work economically and especially in the Eurozone billions will have to head south and east from Germany. That's the nettle they've spent twenty years not grasping.williamglenn said:
It's a demand: "We need Merkel to be the iron Chancellor and not give more billions to Greece."welshowl said:
You're right- I hadn't expanded it on my phone and seen the "Keine". So Bild are saying no bew billions for the Greeks. Hmm bus worthy?Recidivist said:
Isn't that no new millions for the Greeks?welshowl said:
Yes though the sub headline "Milliarden fuer Griechenland", means " billions for Greece". All this ever closer union is going to mean Herr and Frau Schmidt dipping deep into the old wallet.TheScreamingEagles said:
In a few months they'll probably be demanding "Keine Extrawurst für Großbritannien"0 -
No. WE are paying only to "help them". How stupid does that sound ?bigjohnowls said:
Nah we need a deal with them so desperately we are prepared to pay it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They need our protection moneybigjohnowls said:
UK little fish.Sunil_Prasannan said:
UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the billsYellowSubmarine said:@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
EU big fish.
Cardboard box?0 -
I have not attempted to use them - rather put up with Sky and BT sports though I have negotiated quite good reduced rates from both in the last few months and received Sky Q boxes free.foxinsoxuk said:
I think the rise of illegal streams for free are the real competition. They are easy to find, though not for me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Competition drives down pricesdixiedean said:
A couple of our Europa League qualifiers were streamed live on Facebook. I was pleasantly impressed with the quality (of the stream, not the football).Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hadn't heard it before but could be big implications for Sky and BT subscription servicesTheScreamingEagles said:
Old news.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic - Man Utd chief indicates Facebook and Amazon interested in the Premier League
There has to be downward pressure as people will not just accept year on year rises0 -
And from the UK jury reality starts to dawn.williamglenn said:GIN1138 said:
I think I do...TheScreamingEagles said:
You don't want to miss my morning thread.GIN1138 said:PB's already in full on Brexit-misery mode ahead of May's Florence speech I see...
Might give it a miss on here tomorrow.
See you on Saturday?
BFLFCB0 -
Blame the EU.viewcode said:Three questions.
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter?
* 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now?
* 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?0 -
WTOviewcode said:Three questions.
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter?
* 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now?
* 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?0