* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
The Tories are setting up a flounce. It's all about the blame game now.
@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the bills
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
UK little fish.
EU big fish.
Cardboard box?
They need our protection money
Nah we need a deal with them so desperately we are prepared to pay it.
No. WE are paying only to "help them". How stupid does that sound ?
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
WTO
It won't be. The EU will give it a lukewarm reception - a useful step in the right direction, much more work needed, etc. They don't do flat rejection.
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
The Tories are setting up a flounce. It's all about the blame game now.
Where they going to flounder to.sorry flounce to!!
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
The Tories are setting up a flounce. It's all about the blame game now.
Where they going to flounder to.sorry flounce to!!
@David_Evershed EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
It's not a divorce though. For it to be a divorce, the whole marriage (Union) would be going to be dissolved and all the member states would be figuring out how to distribute the common assets.
We're leaving a club. Normally when you leave a club you cease to have any further claim on its assets or access to its benefits, but equally you cease to have any responsibility for its liabilities.
We can go down that path: we can simply leave at the end of March 2019 and not have to pay anything, but we won't have any more access to any of the club's benefits.
Ostensibly, we want to continue to have access to at least some of the club's benefits, either for a transitional period or perhaps some of them indefinitely. The club is willing to let us continue to have some of the benefits - but it's clear we can't have the same benefits we had as members, and if we want any benefits at all, we will have to pay something towards them.
It's not a divorce!
They are both metaphors. Actually what we are doing is revoking a complex system of highly interdependent treaties. As that's not something that people relate to, we talk about membership clubs and divorces.
Well quite, but my point is that the "divorce" metaphor is particularly unhelpful as a divorce involves a) a complete dissolution of a relationship and b) broadly equal parties. In the case of Brexit the relationship will persist, just one party to it will withdraw, and that one party is not remotely equal to the sum of the other parties, WW2 nostalgia notwithstanding.
Although we possibly both reckon you can push a metaphor too far, I would say your point (a) is consistent with the divorce analogy. Often divorces will require ongoing relationships, especially if children are involved. This matters for our negotiation strategy because we have taken a very transactional approach: I get the coffee machine and you will be stuck with pot plants. Whereas helpfulness would serve us better. I can help out with the childcare and give you the weekend off.
PB's already in full on Brexit-misery mode ahead of May's Florence speech I see...
Might give it a miss on here tomorrow.
See you on Saturday?
You don't want to miss my morning thread.
I misread that as Moaning Thread!
The background to the Oadby Uplands by election is an interesting one. Why would the council ban a taxi driver from driving vulnerable children, and withdraw his taxi licence? This is a particularly unpredictable by election. There will be a strong Sikh vote for the Tory.
@David_Evershed EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
It's not a divorce though. For it to be a divorce, the whole marriage (Union) would be going to be dissolved and all the member states would be figuring out how to distribute the common assets.
We're leaving a club. Normally when you leave a club you cease to have any further claim on its assets or access to its benefits, but equally you cease to have any responsibility for its liabilities.
We can go down that path: we can simply leave at the end of March 2019 and not have to pay anything, but we won't have any more access to any of the club's benefits.
Ostensibly, we want to continue to have access to at least some of the club's benefits, either for a transitional period or perhaps some of them indefinitely. The club is willing to let us continue to have some of the benefits - but it's clear we can't have the same benefits we had as members, and if we want any benefits at all, we will have to pay something towards them.
It's not a divorce!
They are both metaphors. Actually what we are doing is revoking a complex system of highly interdependent treaties. As that's not something that people relate to, we talk about membership clubs and divorces.
Well quite, but my point is that the "divorce" metaphor is particularly unhelpful as a divorce involves a) a complete dissolution of a relationship and b) broadly equal parties. In the case of Brexit the relationship will persist, just one party to it will withdraw, and that one party is not remotely equal to the sum of the other parties, WW2 nostalgia notwithstanding.
Although we possibly both reckon you can push a metaphor too far, I would say your point (a) is consistent with the divorce analogy. Often divorces will require ongoing relationships, especially if children are involved. This matters for our negotiation strategy because we have taken a very transactional approach: I get the coffee machine and you will be stuck with pot plants. Whereas helpfulness would serve us better. I can help out with the childcare and give you the weekend off.
We can keep immigration but must let them de in charge of everything else.
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
The Tories are setting up a flounce. It's all about the blame game now.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
Another takeaway from Barnier's speech. He's pushing Norway as the preferred model, which has been rejected long term by everyone in May's cabinet. Hammond supposedly supports EEA minus while Johnson, Gove and May herself want Canada plus. Barnier explains that Norway and Canada area both available, but no plusses or minuses. He also stressed elsewhere that Canada would take a long time to negotiate and in this speech that any transition would be short. This implies there would be a WTO gap and cliff face after the expiry of the transition agreement and before the Canada style deal could be implemented
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter? * 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now? * 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
The Tories are setting up a flounce. It's all about the blame game now.
If only Blair had flounced every now and again.
Instead he walked away from his people's wishes. Strange how they don't love him for it, eh?
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Most Brits will back their own country against some Low Countries mediocrities. It's pretty straightforward.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Most Brits will back their own country against some Low Countries mediocrities. It's pretty straightforward.
It's British voters against lying British politicians. You will not succeed in redirecting the anger against Johnny foreigner.
@JenniferJJacobs: NORTH KOREA'S Kim Jong Un: "I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire." Didn't like Trump's speech.
@michellenichols: N.KOREA'S KIM JONG UN SAYS US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS "MENTALLY DERANGED" -KCNA
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Most Brits will back their own country against some Low Countries mediocrities. It's pretty straightforward.
It's British voters against lying British politicians. You will not succeed in redirecting the anger against Johnny foreigner.
Freedom of movement doesn't actually exist? It's all a mirage? Do enlighten us William.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
You live in a permanent state of delusion. May will make her offer, which as the polls clearly show is already at the upper end of what the UK public think is acceptable. The EU will carp, criticise, brief and drag their feet and ultimately will not agree to move onto trade talks.
The one thing that you hard core remainers can't get is that your greatest enemy in terms of overturning Brexit is not the UK, but the EU. The UK public can see that they are being unreasonable and will turn against the EU. Remember that the UK public is not made up of people like yourselves, who are desperate to see their own country humiliated to prove their own wisdom. It is mostly full of patriots who will never support the EU when their behaviour is so unreasonable.
The EU could have probably engineered a reversal of the Brexit vote if they had played their cards right, but they took the exact opposite approach. For leavers such as myself, the EU are the ultimate guarantors of a proper Brexit so I don't have to worry myself about Hammond, Rudd and the Treasury because I know they will do the job for me.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
after that speech from Junker it will 60/40 for brexit
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
You live in a permanent state of delusion. May will make her offer, which as the polls clearly show is already at the upper end of what the UK public think is acceptable. The EU will carp, criticise, brief and drag their feet and ultimately will not agree to move onto trade talks.
The one thing that you hard core remainers can't get is that your greatest enemy in terms of overturning Brexit is not the UK, but the EU. The UK public can see that they are being unreasonable and will turn against the EU. Remember that the UK public is not made up of people like yourselves, who are desperate to see their own country humiliated to prove their own wisdom. It is mostly full of patriots who will never support the EU when their behaviour is so unreasonable.
The EU could have probably engineered a reversal of the Brexit vote if they had played their cards right, but they took the exact opposite approach. For leavers such as myself, the EU are the ultimate guarantors of a proper Brexit so I don't have to worry myself about Hammond, Rudd and the Treasury because I know they will do the job for me.
I don't see any evidence that the EU27 want us to reverse Brexit (even if that were possible).
The EU merely wants to optimise Brexit for its members.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
Of all the phrases I think it's proving unwise to utter in the last year or two, "without doubt" tops the list. If we're honest, none of us have much clue what will happen, do we?
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
after that speech from Junker it will 60/40 for brexit
Question Time audience just seem to want to get on with it
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
Of all the phrases I think it's proving unwise to utter in the last year or two, "without doubt" tops the list. If we're honest, none of us have much clue what will happen, do we?
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
Oh now you're ruining it Big G. Let's wait and see. I genuinely think it could go either way.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Most Brits will back their own country against some Low Countries mediocrities. It's pretty straightforward.
The problem with that is that we are represented by British mediocrities. In spades.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
You live in a permanent state of delusion. May will make her offer, which as the polls clearly show is already at the upper end of what the UK public think is acceptable. The EU will carp, criticise, brief and drag their feet and ultimately will not agree to move onto trade talks.
The one thing that you hard core remainers can't get is that your greatest enemy in terms of overturning Brexit is not the UK, but the EU. The UK public can see that they are being unreasonable and will turn against the EU. Remember that the UK public is not made up of people like yourselves, who are desperate to see their own country humiliated to prove their own wisdom. It is mostly full of patriots who will never support the EU when their behaviour is so unreasonable.
The EU could have probably engineered a reversal of the Brexit vote if they had played their cards right, but they took the exact opposite approach. For leavers such as myself, the EU are the ultimate guarantors of a proper Brexit so I don't have to worry myself about Hammond, Rudd and the Treasury because I know they will do the job for me.
I don't see any evidence that the EU27 want us to reverse Brexit (even if that were possible).
The EU merely wants to optimise Brexit for its members.
Exactly. Why the hell would they want us back when it's as plain as a pikestaff that even if that happened we'd be trouble with a capital T? From my many interactions over decades with continentals the general view seems to have been "we'd get it in the end and see the light". For good or ill the referendum has laid bare to them the apathy to their project amongst the many, heartfelt enthusiasm amongst a very few, and a burning antipathy amongst a chunky minority.
@JenniferJJacobs: NORTH KOREA'S Kim Jong Un: "I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire." Didn't like Trump's speech.
@michellenichols: N.KOREA'S KIM JONG UN SAYS US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS "MENTALLY DERANGED" -KCNA
If we get a deal which is acceptable to all 5 minutes before we are fried to a crisp will Alanis Morrissette be around to document it? And if she isn't, wouldn't that just be the ultimate irony?
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
Oh now you're ruining it Big G. Let's wait and see. I genuinely think it could go either way.
I think you will see I have been saying that today but if the EU outright reject a two year transition and 20 billion asking for more the pendulum could swing firmly anti EU.
My only reservation is if Theresa can really step up to the plate and deliver the speech of her life that receives popular support here and kick starts the process
She will ask for a two year transition period beginning on Brexit Day, March 30 2019, Through out the two years, Britain is prepared to pay £20bn in continuing contributions to fill the huge hole in the EU’s budget from our departure, Controversially, the PM will also agree to sign up to all current EU laws and regulations for the two year transition period, but NO fresh ones, EU migrants will still be free to come to Britain during the transition period in exchange for continuing single market access, but will lose the right to stay indefinitely, But when the transition ends, she will in return expect the EU’s 27 leaders to offer up a blockbuster free trade deal. Mrs May will also today reject outright attempts by some ministers and Whitehall mandarins to permanently align the UK with the EU’s laws – known as an EEA-style arrangement – when the transition period ends in 2021.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
Of all the phrases I think it's proving unwise to utter in the last year or two, "without doubt" tops the list. If we're honest, none of us have much clue what will happen, do we?
We all have our expectations as at 9:59:59 PM on 8 June 2017 as a touchstone for the value of our political predictions.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
Oh now you're ruining it Big G. Let's wait and see. I genuinely think it could go either way.
I think you will see I have been saying that today but if the EU outright reject a two year transition and 20 billion asking for more the pendulum could swing firmly anti EU.
My only reservation is if Theresa can really step up to the plate and deliver the speech of her life that receives popular support here and kick starts the process
I understand that and agree with you. The EU hasn't rejected anything yet though. Let's wait and see.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
On reflection amazing how wrong they were.I wonder why Cameron was spooked then and came out with that unannounced speech on the steps of Downing Street on the final days leading up to the vote.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
On reflection amazing how wrong they were.I wonder why Cameron was spooked then and came out with that unannounced speech on the steps of Downing Street on the final days leading up to the vote.
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
Which is a completely moronic thing to do.
A country votes to leave the EU, and then doesn't (either by a second referendum or just plain ignoring the first). You think either the EU, or those who voted LEAVE are just going to laugh it off?
Certainly no REMAINER on this board has attempted to consider the political turmoil that would follow if we didn't leave the EU. You all think it will be some sunny uplit lands if we stay, completely ignoring that the consequences for the UK (both at home and from the EU) would be horrendously awful.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
Which is a completely moronic thing to do.
A country votes to leave the EU, and then doesn't (either by a second referendum or just plain ignoring the first). You think either the EU, or those who voted LEAVE are just going to laugh it off?
Certainly no REMAINER on this board has attempted to consider the political turmoil that would follow if we didn't leave the EU. You all think it will be some sunny uplit lands if we stay, completely ignoring that the consequences for the UK (both at home and from the EU) would be horrendously awful.
We could go from a Corbyn premiership to a Farage premiership in the space of a few years
My first thought was, use Decca as a backup, but it seems to have been shut down in 2000. But if you spoof GPS you also have to spoof GLONASS already (where ok the Russians have a head start) and BeiDou and Galileo (what has the EU ever done for us?) in a year or two's time. On top of that a modern ship should be capable of generating very accurate speed made good and course made good records, so dead reckoning should be a doddle. It is only over reliance on GPS which turns this into a problem.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
On reflection amazing how wrong they were.I wonder why Cameron was spooked then and came out with that unannounced speech on the steps of Downing Street on the final days leading up to the vote.
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Yes very true , he must have had concerns from other sources relayed to him.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
On reflection amazing how wrong they were.I wonder why Cameron was spooked then and came out with that unannounced speech on the steps of Downing Street on the final days leading up to the vote.
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Yes very true , he must have had concerns from other sources relayed to him.
Indeed, though it was all too much of a rushed job, the attempted renegotiation is where he should have put the real time and effort in
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
On reflection amazing how wrong they were.I wonder why Cameron was spooked then and came out with that unannounced speech on the steps of Downing Street on the final days leading up to the vote.
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Yes very true , he must have had concerns from other sources relayed to him.
Indeed, though it was all too much of a rushed job, the attempted renegotiation is where he should have put the real time and effort in
I think he was too afraid of the 2015 migrant crisis repeating, so wanted the referendum before the summer. Meanwhile the EU wanted to sort out the migrant crisis rather than discuss Camerons issues. As such it was a rushed and bodged job.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
Do not exaggerate leave 51.89% remain ,48.11%
Yes and the final poll from Populus on the eve of the referendum had it Remain 55% Leave 45% and Comres had it Remain 54% Leave 46% https://en..
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Yes very true , he must have had concerns from other sources relayed to him.
Indeed, though it was all too much of a rushed job, the attempted renegotiation is where he should have put the real time and effort in
I think he was too afraid of the 2015 migrant crisis repeating, so wanted the referendum before the summer. Meanwhile the EU wanted to sort out the migrant crisis rather than discuss Camerons issues. As such it was a rushed and bodged job.
All he needed to do was to just try and get some concessions on free movement to reflect the fact the UK did not impose transition controls in 2004 unlike most other EU nations, had he managed to do that it may well have been 52% Remain 48% Leave rather than the reverse and he would still have been PM now.
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
Do not exaggerate leave 51.89% remain ,48.11%
Yes and the final
On reflection .
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Yes very true , he must have had concerns from other sources relayed to him.
Indeed, though it was all too much of a rushed job, the attempted renegotiation is where he should have put the real time and effort in
I think he was too afraid of the 2015 migrant crisis repeating, so wanted the referendum before the summer. Meanwhile the EU wanted to sort out the migrant crisis rather than discuss Camerons issues. As such it was a rushed and bodged job.
All he needed to do was to just try and get some concessions on free movement to reflect the fact the UK did not impose transition controls in 2004 unlike most other EU nations, had he managed to do that it may well have been 52% Remain 48% Leave rather than the reverse and he would still have been PM now
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
Do not exaggerate leave 51.89% remain ,48.11%
Yes and the final
On reflection .
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Yes very true , he must have had concerns from other sources relayed to him.
Indeed, though it was all too much of a rushed job, the attempted renegotiation is where he should have put the real time and effort in
I think he was too afraid of the 2015 migrant crisis repeating, so wanted the referendum before the summer. Meanwhile the EU wanted to sort out the migrant crisis rather than discuss Camerons issues. As such it was a rushed and bodged job.
All he needed to do was to just try and get some concessions on free movement to reflect the fact the UK did not impose transition controls in 2004 unlike most other EU nations, had he managed to do that it may well have been 52% Remain 48% Leave rather than the reverse and he would still have been PM now
Gutter journalism. Supporting Remain does not mean people think the referendum result should be reversed.
Nowhere in that article does it talk about reversing the referendum result. The referendum result is history now. What matters is what we do next, and according to that poll most people now think we should not leave the EU.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
52% Remain 48% Leave, there were bigger leads for Remain on referendum day.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
Do not exaggerate leave 51.89% remain ,48.11%
Yes and the final
On reflection .
He obviously knew something most in the rather complacent Remain campaign did not.
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
Yes very true , he must have had concerns from other sources relayed to him.
Indeed, though it was all too much of a rushed job, the attempted renegotiation is where he should have put the real time and effort in
I think he was too afraid of the 2015 migrant crisis repeating, so wanted the referendum before the summer. Meanwhile the EU wanted to sort out the migrant crisis rather than discuss Camerons issues. As such it was a rushed and bodged job.
All he needed to do was to just try and get some concessions on free movement to reflect the fact the UK did not impose transition controls in 2004 unlike most other EU nations, had he managed to do that it may well have been 52% Remain 48% Leave rather than the reverse and he would still have been PM now
It was one essay crisis too many for Dave.
I think that sums up the unfulfilled potential of his premiership
Based on pre speech reports this looks like a speech thats not offering enough to the eu but not enough to the pro hard Brexit supporters
Isn't it exactly what the Brexiteers want? No money after transition, no new EU laws.
It will make hard Brexit more likely , thankfully. Hard Brexiteers will feel that the 20 billion is a very generous offer, which it is, and that the transition period under full EU rules is a significant compromise, which it is, and when the EU reject it they will feel that we have done our best and it is time to prepare for Brexit properly.
I think the UK public, on the whole, will take exactly the same view. Polls have always shown that the majority of the UK public always expected No Deal, so the reality is not going to be much of a shock to them.
As Mervyn King says, we just need to get on with it.
I am puzzled. Why shouldn't Salmond support Catalonia's right to choose. It is what all democrats should be doing. God help Gibraltar if your mentality prevails in the EU negotiations!
I am puzzled. Why shouldn't Salmond support Catalonia's right to choose. It is what all democrats should be doing. God help Gibraltar if your mentality prevails in the EU negotiations!
Hm, I don't recall there being a positive reaction from some when leaders were expressing their views on the Scottish referendum.
I suspect polls will be 60/40 against Brexit within weeks. People are looking for an excuse to turn on the Brexiteers and the news that Brexit will cost us money will be the turning point.
Quite the opposite - it will be the turning point against the EU without doubt
Of all the phrases I think it's proving unwise to utter in the last year or two, "without doubt" tops the list. If we're honest, none of us have much clue what will happen, do we?
Absolutely. There is very little doubt on this board generally - which is a bit of a red flag when betting...
Yet just the other day we were being told 2/3s of the country was now pro-Brexit.
The poll last week had 45% leave plus 17% re - leave ( remainer's wanting to get on with it) and 29% remain = 62 - 29
Cannot see the Independent's figures
Accepting a democratic result is not the same as being Pro-Brexit. The smart politics would have been a really soft Brexit. It would also have been the most practical. If people really want out of the EU we could have tackled the issues one at a time.
Comments
Ohhhh Rooonñny Mihaaaaally victory speech in Chez Vegas
(paste into google for non-subscription access)
https://www.ft.com/content/eac1c3ac-9eb0-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5
A government in waiting.
Time to put the current administration out of its misery. The history books will not be kind to Theresa.
We are strong and stable
The background to the Oadby Uplands by election is an interesting one. Why would the council ban a taxi driver from driving vulnerable children, and withdraw his taxi licence? This is a particularly unpredictable by election. There will be a strong Sikh vote for the Tory.
http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/taxi-driver-suspended-transporting-vulnerable-230919
Sounds wonderful
Unfortunately.
If it was 60/40 then it would be meaningful, but it isn't.
The Conservatives will be the victims unless they find a graceful way to exit from Brexit before they do themselves terminal political damage.
@jessphillips on, always good value entertainment.
Cannot see the Independent's figures
Instead he walked away from his people's wishes. Strange how they don't love him for it, eh?
We will all die in the nuclear holocaust first...
@JenniferJJacobs: NORTH KOREA'S Kim Jong Un: "I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire."
Didn't like Trump's speech.
@michellenichols: N.KOREA'S KIM JONG UN SAYS US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS "MENTALLY DERANGED" -KCNA
The one thing that you hard core remainers can't get is that your greatest enemy in terms of overturning Brexit is not the UK, but the EU. The UK public can see that they are being unreasonable and will turn against the EU. Remember that the UK public is not made up of people like yourselves, who are desperate to see their own country humiliated to prove their own wisdom. It is mostly full of patriots who will never support the EU when their behaviour is so unreasonable.
The EU could have probably engineered a reversal of the Brexit vote if they had played their cards right, but they took the exact opposite approach. For leavers such as myself, the EU are the ultimate guarantors of a proper Brexit so I don't have to worry myself about Hammond, Rudd and the Treasury because I know they will do the job for me.
Would be amazing to witness it.
The EU merely wants to optimise Brexit for its members.
My only reservation is if Theresa can really step up to the plate and deliver the speech of her life that receives popular support here and kick starts the process
She will ask for a two year transition period beginning on Brexit Day, March 30 2019,
Through out the two years, Britain is prepared to pay £20bn in continuing contributions to fill the huge hole in the EU’s budget from our departure,
Controversially, the PM will also agree to sign up to all current EU laws and regulations for the two year transition period, but NO fresh ones,
EU migrants will still be free to come to Britain during the transition period in exchange for continuing single market access, but will lose the right to stay indefinitely,
But when the transition ends, she will in return expect the EU’s 27 leaders to offer up a blockbuster free trade deal.
Mrs May will also today reject outright attempts by some ministers and Whitehall mandarins to permanently align the UK with the EU’s laws – known as an EEA-style arrangement – when the transition period ends in 2021.
Tory voters of course are more Leave than the national average so if the Tories joined Labour and the LDs and SNP and Greens in advocating for the UK to return to the EU the majority of Tory voters will have nowhere else to go to reflect their views but UKIP, probably led by a returned Farage yet again.
In that case we could well end up with UKIP overtaking the Tories as the main opposition to Labour
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/black-sea-ship-hacking-russia
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/910997833091768320
Apart from ICM, TNS and Opinium all the final polls from the pollsters (including the recently much vaunted Survation) had Remain ahead
A country votes to leave the EU, and then doesn't (either by a second referendum or just plain ignoring the first). You think either the EU, or those who voted LEAVE are just going to laugh it off?
Certainly no REMAINER on this board has attempted to consider the political turmoil that would follow if we didn't leave the EU. You all think it will be some sunny uplit lands if we stay, completely ignoring that the consequences for the UK (both at home and from the EU) would be horrendously awful.
LD gain on a swing from LD to Lab!!!
Oadby and Wigston Council is very well run, and not keen on being seen as just like Leicester as per the header!
I think the UK public, on the whole, will take exactly the same view. Polls have always shown that the majority of the UK public always expected No Deal, so the reality is not going to be much of a shock to them.
As Mervyn King says, we just need to get on with it.
I am puzzled. Why shouldn't Salmond support Catalonia's right to choose. It is what all democrats should be doing. God help Gibraltar if your mentality prevails in the EU negotiations!
There is very little doubt on this board generally - which is a bit of a red flag when betting...