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Three council by elections tonight: one Conservative defence and two Labour.@andrewteale's previews: https://t.co/reCxOxpPMB
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https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video;_ylt=A9mSs3R_E8RZ6LoAuRNLBQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTByZmVxM3N0BGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--?p=dir+toten+hosen+ultraviiolente&fr=mcafee#id=1&vid=44d8235ab67b20a729179542b96dfdc5&action=view
she's been heckled across Germany
Plebians often do this to their betters.
I was in Birmingham in 2014, there were a few there who backed Leave, who wanted to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
George Osborne hasn't reached that level, yet.
@David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.
So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
The reason Reckless’ defection went down like a cup of cold sick was the timing of it during the conference, which took everyone’s attention away and led to everyone wondering if there was another TPD out there somewhere. At least we (thankfully) know there’s only c*** Osborne out there.
Reckless has left UKIP now.
Absolutely everything is driven by public opinion. The polls say that hasn't shifted at all really since the referendum. So we're leaving. But if public opinion does shift markedly the vote are clearly there in both houses to pull the plug.
For all the debate the only two variables that matter are the polls and the clock.
We're leaving a club. Normally when you leave a club you cease to have any further claim on its assets or access to its benefits, but equally you cease to have any responsibility for its liabilities.
We can go down that path: we can simply leave at the end of March 2019 and not have to pay anything, but we won't have any more access to any of the club's benefits.
Ostensibly, we want to continue to have access to at least some of the club's benefits, either for a transitional period or perhaps some of them indefinitely. The club is willing to let us continue to have some of the benefits - but it's clear we can't have the same benefits we had as members, and if we want any benefits at all, we will have to pay something towards them.
It's not a divorce!
If I were German I'd be a bit sparing with the jokey historical references to previous Chancellors.
Dave would have been the undisputed master of the universe, winner of two general elections, three plebiscites, slayer of the Lib Dems, and the man who drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader.
EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
Interesting briefing yesterday that'll never be an actual ' Divorce Bill ' by the way as both sides know it'll blow up the negotiations. The A50 agreement will list liabilities, a formula for calculating what they are worth and dispute resolution mechanism.
Money offers and ECJ jurisdiction in the UK will require labour to come of the fence instead of trying to ride two horses at once.
Sets up the media for a weekend of intensity that will have considerable influence on public opinion.
I hope that Theresa pulls this off for the sake of the Country - she will need to be inspired but there are doubts she has the public speaking ability.
Lets all wait and see
Unlike Boris.
What will kill London as a transactional centre I suspect is the compliance questionnaire that contains a question similar to "Are you accredited under Section XYZ?" Section XYZ accreditation is only available to EU firms. Firms don't want to explain why they aren't Section XYZ compliant, so they'll move the work to a part of the company that is. Their clients will demand it because their own customers ask for it. After a while everything gets processed under Section XYZ.
There will be no humilation in this for either side.
But the main dynamic is that £350m per week as well as being a lie was a gross figure. Even if it was true, which it wasn't, it was predicated on us paying nothing whatsoever in future. As of tomorrow and for the first time since the referendum Brexit backing politicans are going to have to start back tracking on this.
Which is what Boris' tantrum was about. If he's not careful he'll be in Clegg territory as he sits in a government that openly repudiates the £350m pw claim.
I have no idea what is in the speech. I will listen to it, Barnier's reaction and then the fallout with a generous supply of popcorn.
"Interests and needs = important distinction.
• Interests = transitory and superficial. Interests are tangible things that can be traded and compromised.
• Needs = more basic and enduring. Needs are intangible things that are not for trading, such as identity, security, respect, or recognition. The most conflict-provoking losses have to do with needs, and these needs may connect to deeper wounds.
"When human needs are also in conflict, resolving a conflict about interests will not make the conflict go away."
[NB not quite verbatim but almost - taken from my notes from the book]
With good will on both sides, the divorce payments can be expressed in any settlement agreement in tediously complex accounting formulae which no one will bother to try to understand.
Whichever side loses this argument with the voter they will lose as well
I have my reservations for Theresa but post tomorrow and the next few days a big shift could take place either way.
Popcorn may be a good idea and also a win for Everton would help your mood no doubt
In a few months they'll probably be demanding "Keine Extrawurst für Großbritannien"
Brexit has solved precisely none of these problems, but it has at least put a brake on the course that we were on.
Delusional.
The use of a gross figure (ignoring if one can for a moment the fact that it was the wrong gross figure) is consistent with their view that our future relationship would be one of an entirely disconnected country achieving a normal FTA with the EU. outside the Customs Union and the Single Market, outside the EEA and having no formal commitments to EU projects.
This is not a relationship I would prefer but there is a consistency with the basic principle of paying nothing to the EU.
Of course the idiotic bit is using a false figure for this gross payment. I am staggered that Boris has repeated it this week and is basically saying our saving in terms of contribution will be more than we ever paid.
EU big fish.
Cardboard box?
One soon to be former member has a significantly higher % at risk.
Turns out little Englanders are precisely that compared to the EU.
Might give it a miss on here tomorrow.
See you on Saturday?
* 1) Am I correct in thinking that Theresa's speech tomorrow is near enough the same as the Legatum Institute one that was leaked some days ago on Twitter?
* 2) If so, then that approach involves bypassing the EU/ECommission/negotiating team and appealing directly to the EC27. That approach has been tried and failed three times in the past two years (Cameron renegotiation, Trump post-inauguration, Davis pre-Article 50). Will it work now?
* 3) If the speech offer is rejected...then what?
There has to be downward pressure as people will not just accept year on year rises
BFLFCB