politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It seems the only exiting going on at the Department for Exiti

Morning all

Just a question from me today - why does everyone have to have a "Chief of Staff" these days ? Is this a glorified PA or the person who does your thinking for you ?

Beverley_C said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SandyRentool said:

May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.

, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.

Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.

But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating

They have parked the bus fairly effectively, but that is their agreed position, ratified by all the EU27 including France and Germany. It is not going to change because Theresa no mates wants it to change.

The default is WTO hard Brexit on 30 March 2019. Our team have not prepared for that.

They have prepared for it. No less a personage than the PM has said that "No deal is better than a bad deal" so that option is all sorted out.

Where you are mistaken, Dr Fox, is assuming that we have to do anything. All we have to do is fiddle and faddle for another 18 months and we get our "No Deal" that the PM endorsed.

Viewed in that light, the govt.s behaviour makes perfect sense.

This is obviously the Johnson/Gove/Rees-Mogg strategy - ensure the government remains hopelessly divided on what it wants thus ensuring the negotiations get nowhere and "no deal" automatically follows.

And at the moment this strategy is working. It's not clear that May has a realistic alternative, and even if she had her prospects of imposing it on her cabinet, let alone her party and the country as a whole, are remote.

FF43 said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

What's Theresa May going to do differently from David Davis? He has all along been hamstrung by the contradictions of Mrs May's positions, which are those of the Leave Campaign.

You either accept what the EU demands, in which case it raises not for the first time the question of why we are going through all this pain, or you reject them entirely, which guarantees Brexit failure.

I sincerely hope your employer never lets you near a negotiation

I can say with confidence that my employer would never get itself into such unfavourable position in the first place, nor would it make a strategic decision based on a single word, not would it reject the current setup without considering alternatives or at least a general direction. It would not be so profoundly stupid

Do you sincerely believe May, Davis and/or Johnson are going to pull off a brilliant negotiation? Davis did, but he's being sidelined.

you schedule flights for Ryanair, dont you ?

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

FF43 said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SandyRentool said:

May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.

, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.

Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.

But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating

And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.

That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.

Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.

It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.

Beverley_C said:

TGOHF said:

What could potentially kill Remainerism and further down the line the EU is a Brexit with no deal followed by a booming Uk.

Yes indeed. You are quite correct and, as a remainer myself, I would be very happy with such an outcome. I do not want to see the UK relegate itself to a backwater but I fear that is exactly what Brexit will do

It is far, far better for the UK for Remainers to be wrong about the outcome than for Leavers to be wrong about it.

Same here, I would love to be wrong about this - I just can't see it though

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SandyRentool said:

May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.

, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.

Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.

But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating

And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.

That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.

Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.

Haha yes - the British European Empire lol!

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

And in any event, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.

It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.

To an extent, yes. But not to the extremes. The UK paid a lot in anyway, to not quite be at the centre of things, and outside the eurozone, so it was always a slightly special case. Most other EU countries either pay far less, or receive net funding from the EU, so they have a very real interest in staying and for small countries - like Malta, and Ireland - it massively amplifies their international voice.

The key thing is that the EU can point to a few totems - e.g. show the UK has to comply with rules/ regulations/ obligations it now no longer has a say in - but otherwise realpolitik should (should) reign supreme.

Beverley_C said:

TGOHF said:

What could potentially kill Remainerism and further down the line the EU is a Brexit with no deal followed by a booming Uk.

Yes indeed. You are quite correct and, as a remainer myself, I would be very happy with such an outcome. I do not want to see the UK relegate itself to a backwater but I fear that is exactly what Brexit will do

It is far, far better for the UK for Remainers to be wrong about the outcome than for Leavers to be wrong about it.

in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population
by 2050 theyll be about 5%

whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again

"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.

It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.

Why would it be so bad if others were to follow the British path?

The EU path of ever closer union leading to a single federal state should be for those nations that want it. If there are nations that don't want it why is it awful for the EU if others choose a looser relationship like us? That way they can build a federal state of those who want it without being encumbered by reluctant heel-draggers.

Beverley_C said:

From the perspective of JRM et al. confusion to deliver a WTO Brexit is a viable strategy.

The PM after Brexit will have next to no accountability and no interfering EU over him/her and clever use of those nice Henry VIII powers should sort out that pesky parliament's interference.

All we need is a self-obsessed populist desperate for the job of PM to put themselves forward

There won't be any Henry VIII powers post-Brexit.

Casino_Royale said:

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

And in any event, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.

It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.

To an extent, yes. But not to the extremes. The UK paid a lot in anyway, to not quite be at the centre of things, and outside the eurozone, so it was always a slightly special case. Most other EU countries either pay far less, or receive net funding from the EU, so they have a very real interest in staying and for small countries - like Malta, and Ireland - it massively amplifies their international voice.

The key thing is that the EU can point to a few totems - e.g. show the UK has to comply with rules/ regulations/ obligations it now no longer has a say in - but otherwise realpolitik should (should) reign supreme.

But aren't those few totems exactly what Gove, Davis, JRM, Farage et al* object to and will not support?

(*I exclude BoJo because frankly who knows what he wants?)

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.

Debatable but some vested interests in the EU will suffer greatly. And vested interests are what the EU is all about.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/24/eu-trade-deal-with-canada-collapses-as-belgium-refuses-to-sign

Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?

The Brits are creditors who make vast net payments.
The Greeks are debtors who receive vast net receipts.

Can you spot the difference? He who pays the piper calls the tunes.

Well, if this is calling the tunes the government must be tone deaf.

Benpointer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.

Debatable but some vested interests in the EU will suffer greatly. And vested interests are what the EU is all about.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/24/eu-trade-deal-with-canada-collapses-as-belgium-refuses-to-sign

Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?

The Brits are creditors who make vast net payments.
The Greeks are debtors who receive vast net receipts.

Can you spot the difference? He who pays the piper calls the tunes.

Well, if this is calling the tunes the government must be tone deaf.

Greece had more leverage and more allies than we do.

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".

....

Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.

But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.

9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.

I don't think so.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.

It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.

Why would it be so bad if others were to follow the British path?

The EU path of ever closer union leading to a single federal state should be for those nations that want it. If there are nations that don't want it why is it awful for the EU if others choose a looser relationship like us? That way they can build a federal state of those who want it without being encumbered by reluctant heel-draggers.

For the architects of the European project it would be very bad, the end of their dreams of ever closer union.

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/910065212455309312

Theresa needs a Night of the Long Knives.

Sack Boris.
Sack DD.
Sack Gove.
Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer.
Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec.
Find a role for Rees-Mogg.

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SandyRentool said:

May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.

, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.

Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.

But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating

And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.

That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.

Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.

Haha yes - the British European Empire lol!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox

foxinsoxuk said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Slightly off topic, but Jezza just pulled a classic on Piers Morgan.

https://twitter.com/HectorBellerin/status/909856300804268032

Actually it sounds like he was just unpleasantly rude to someone

Deliberately excluding someone from a conversation like that is petty and ungracious

Piers Morgan described himself as interrupting.

Sure - he's a journalist and a tosspot and that's what they do.

If you don't want him to be part of the conversation you tell him to go away. Switching to another language is just rude.

Stark_Dawning said:

Theresa needs a Night of the Long Knives.

Sack Boris.
Sack DD.
Sack Gove.
Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer.
Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec.
Find a role for Rees-Mogg.

What has the NHS done to deserve Liam Fox? Hasn’t it suffered enough?

Benpointer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Theresa needs a Night of the Long Knives.

Sack Boris.
Sack DD.
Sack Gove.
Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer.
Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec.
Find a role for Rees-Mogg.

Don't forget to launch the flying pigs!

is it a question of if she doesnt do it to them.....they'll do it to her.....

https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/910033210981072897

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.

January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound
September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound

If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.

Stark_Dawning said:

Theresa needs a Night of the Long Knives.

Sack Boris.
Sack DD.
Sack Gove.
Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer.
Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec.
Find a role for Rees-Mogg.

Make Liam Fox Ambassador to the Islamic State.

Triggers a by election which one of David Cameron, Ruth Davidson, or George Osborne wins, and becomes Tory leader and PM within a few days by acclamation.

All sorted.

williamglenn said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.

January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound
September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound

If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.

1.12 is the latest on my XE app.

Barnesian said:

May appointed Davis, Johnson and Fox as leading Brexiteers to lead the Brexit process. They are clearly failing. She also recently appointed Damian Green, her old friend and leading Remainer as her Deputy. She has had a long holiday with her husband and presumably has a plan to take back control. She has a big speech on Friday and the Conference nine days later.

Here's my scenario. She fires Davis, Johnson and Fox. They had their chance. She rolls Davis's and Fox's departments back into the Foreign Office where they belong. She appoints Green as Foreign Secretary in charge of the Brexit process under May's guidance. May, Green, Rudd and Hammond successfully steer the UK to the softest of Brexit's and face down the Tory hardliners with help from the opposition parties.

Another departmental reorganization will just waste time I suspect.
Taking back control of the negotiations does make sense if May has lost faith in the team.
Doubt she can afford to sack all 3 Brexiteers though.

Keep Fox at DIT since he can't actually do much until the deal is done/maybe not even then?
Keep Boris because he's actually not that involved in Brexit?
Keep DD because maybe he's the most dangerous to her position?

Tricky choices.

OldKingCole said:

williamglenn said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.

January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound
September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound

If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.

1.12 is the latest on my XE app.

Sorry, it looks like my 'current' figure was actually from January. More successful devaluation since then!

Benpointer said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Slightly off topic, but Jezza just pulled a classic on Piers Morgan.

https://twitter.com/HectorBellerin/status/909856300804268032

Actually it sounds like he was just unpleasantly rude to someone

Deliberately excluding someone from a conversation like that is petty and ungracious

Piers Morgan described himself as interrupting.

Sure - he's a journalist and a tosspot and that's what they do.

If you don't want him to be part of the conversation you tell him to go away. Switching to another language is just rude.

Switching to the native language of the person you are talking to is hardly rude.

Telling someone to go away whilst at a dinner they were invited to might be though...

Surprised PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@JolyonMaugham: "All this 'if you jump off a cliff and spread your wings you'll find yourself flying into the blue yonder,' that's not a policy": Ken Clarke

Says the man who wanted us to join the Euro in 1999 and once said Westminster would end up with no more relevance than a local council debating chamber...

Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?

Because he was the finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

Oh not that rubbish again... He wanted us to be permanently hoist to the ERM (with anybody with a mortgage thrown to the wolves) - It was only after we left the ERM that we started to recover... It happened completely by accident and despite Kenneth Clarke (and Major, Hezza, Lamont, etc) not because of him/them.

Nonsense.

Do you know what Ken Clarke's first act as Chancellor was?

He fired David Cameron, who was a SPAD to Norman Lamont.

williamglenn said:

OldKingCole said:

williamglenn said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.

January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound
September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound

If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.

1.12 is the latest on my XE app.

Sorry, it looks like my 'current' figure was actually from January. More successful devaluation since then!

To be fair, there was a bit of an upward twitch recently after someone from the BoE suggested interest rates might rise.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surprised none of PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

Yeah, I have noticed the (independent) BoE governor and Osborne crony Carney is still fighting the good fight for Remain...

Zeitgeist said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Beverley_C said:

Alanbrooke said:

in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population
by 2050 theyll be about 5%

whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again

"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."

There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.

Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.

Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?

Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.

Which EU countries are in depression?

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surprised none of PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

Yeah, I have noticed the (independent) BoE governor and Osborne crony Carney is still fighting the good fight for Remain...

You can't refute the statistics/data/analysis, so you play the man and not the ball.

CopperSulphate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surprised none of PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

I'm struggling to believe that a huge increase in labour at a time of mass automation doesn't drive down wages.

So it is your anecdote/supposition versus actual facts and data.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Zeitgeist said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Beverley_C said:

Alanbrooke said:

in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population
by 2050 theyll be about 5%

whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again

"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."

There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.

Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.

Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?

Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.

Which EU countries are in depression?

Portugal, Spain and Greece have had a terrible time economically in the last 10 years.

CopperSulphate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surprised none of PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

I'm struggling to believe that a huge increase in labour at a time of mass automation doesn't drive down wages.

And didn't Sir Stuart Rose 'warn' us all that wages would rise if we voted Leave and ended Freedom of Movement?

(That was before he got locked away for the rest of the campaign.)

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surprised none of PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

Yeah, I have noticed the (independent) BoE governor and Osborne crony Carney is still fighting the good fight for Remain...

You can't refute the statistics/data/analysis, so you play the man and not the ball.

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

SandyRentool said:

CopperSulphate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surprised none of PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

I'm struggling to believe that a huge increase in labour at a time of mass automation doesn't drive down wages.

And didn't Sir Stuart Rose 'warn' us all that wages would rise if we voted Leave and ended Freedom of Movement?

(That was before he got locked away for the rest of the campaign.)

Whatever happened to Sir Stuart?

Maybe he's still locked in Osborne's basement?

F1: still keeping an early eye on weather for Malaysia. It varies between some rain and lots of rain. If that keeps up, Verstappen, Alonso and Hulkenberg may be value. Also the possibility of Sauber points, although odds on that (whilst long) tend to not quite be as overpriced.

Last year, I think, we're off to Malaysia. Bit of a shame as I quite like the circuit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CopperSulphate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surprised none of PB's 'immigrants cause wages to drop' team didn't post this.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536

I'm struggling to believe that a huge increase in labour at a time of mass automation doesn't drive down wages.

So it is your anecdote/supposition versus actual facts and data.

The Governor is quoting from a paper, that is regularly quoted on this subject.

Importantly, in the abstract, this paper makes the following statement:

"Our results also reveal that the biggest impact of immigration on wages is within the semi/unskilled services occupational group"

Later they write:

"The static results suggest that the statistically significant negative effects of immigration on wages are concentrated among skilled production workers, and semi/unskilled service workers."

As far as I can tell the figure they come up with around 2% difference. Not much, but maybe enough to feed a sense of grievance.

This class of worker is probably the one most likely to be complaining about the situation, as it seems the managerial/professional/public sector worker section voted Remain.

edit: the paper: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/workingpapers/2015/swp574.aspx

Mrs C, think replacing Carney (excepting the natural replacement which always happens on schedule) would be daft.

That said, the new money is rubbish. The plastic fivers are like Monopoly money, and the threepenny pound coins are surprisingly disappointing. The old threepenny bits were better. #numismatics

Edited extra bit: and cutting rates to 0.25% was bloody silly.