May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
That is correct. It is not a negotiation, it is a tidying up exercise that is to be completed before the negotiation starts. I thought that this had been made quite clear .....
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
We're an old country. Our institutions are at least a thousand years old. Our church in England is 1400 years old. We're approaching the Bimillennium of our capital. Yet this Brexit/Leave stuff has got as bad as the quasi religious Exodus mythology in US politics. But the US is a much younger country, is vastly more religious and was partly born out of an Exodus.
Any sucessful Brexit involved calming down, planning and ditching most of the unhinged mythology of the Leave event. It would have been mushy bitter compromise but would have been deliverable.
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
They have parked the bus fairly effectively, but that is their agreed position, ratified by all the EU27 including France and Germany. It is not going to change because Theresa no mates wants it to change.
The default is WTO hard Brexit on 30 March 2019. Our team have not prepared for that.
They have prepared for it. No less a personage than the PM has said that "No deal is better than a bad deal" so that option is all sorted out.
Where you are mistaken, Dr Fox, is assuming that we have to do anything. All we have to do is fiddle and faddle for another 18 months and we get our "No Deal" that the PM endorsed.
Viewed in that light, the govt.s behaviour makes perfect sense.
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
They have parked the bus fairly effectively, but that is their agreed position, ratified by all the EU27 including France and Germany. It is not going to change because Theresa no mates wants it to change.
The default is WTO hard Brexit on 30 March 2019. Our team have not prepared for that.
The bypass the EU and deal with the heads of government strategy has never, ever worked and it won't here.
And why would we want to try to herd the cats when the EU Commission does the job for us?. The flipside for us of a lack of flexibility is a single agreement that can be made to stick. That agreement will necessarily be worse than what we had as members, but that ship has sailed. All the political issues and arguments stem from that fact. Nobody, whether Remainer or Leaver, wants to negotiate something worse than what you have.
Just a question from me today - why does everyone have to have a "Chief of Staff" these days ? Is this a glorified PA or the person who does your thinking for you ?
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
They have parked the bus fairly effectively, but that is their agreed position, ratified by all the EU27 including France and Germany. It is not going to change because Theresa no mates wants it to change.
The default is WTO hard Brexit on 30 March 2019. Our team have not prepared for that.
They have prepared for it. No less a personage than the PM has said that "No deal is better than a bad deal" so that option is all sorted out.
Where you are mistaken, Dr Fox, is assuming that we have to do anything. All we have to do is fiddle and faddle for another 18 months and we get our "No Deal" that the PM endorsed.
Viewed in that light, the govt.s behaviour makes perfect sense.
What is the personal downside for the cabinet for a no deal?
We're talking 2022 so they will have been in power/PM for five, some seven years, some longer. There is a non-trivial probability that the public either won't understand what a hard Brexit means, or the lag between March 2019 hard Brexit and any effect is quite long (in today's 24-hr news timescale), and therefore there must be a 15-20% chance, perhaps higher, that by the next GE people think all is well and give the Cons another go.
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
They have parked the bus fairly effectively, but that is their agreed position, ratified by all the EU27 including France and Germany. It is not going to change because Theresa no mates wants it to change.
The default is WTO hard Brexit on 30 March 2019. Our team have not prepared for that.
They have prepared for it. No less a personage than the PM has said that "No deal is better than a bad deal" so that option is all sorted out.
Where you are mistaken, Dr Fox, is assuming that we have to do anything. All we have to do is fiddle and faddle for another 18 months and we get our "No Deal" that the PM endorsed.
Viewed in that light, the govt.s behaviour makes perfect sense.
This is obviously the Johnson/Gove/Rees-Mogg strategy - ensure the government remains hopelessly divided on what it wants thus ensuring the negotiations get nowhere and "no deal" automatically follows.
And at the moment this strategy is working. It's not clear that May has a realistic alternative, and even if she had her prospects of imposing it on her cabinet, let alone her party and the country as a whole, are remote.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
We're an old country. Our institutions are at least a thousand years old. Our church in England is 1400 years old. We're approaching the Bimillennium of our capital. Yet this Brexit/Leave stuff has got as bad as the quasi religious Exodus mythology in US politics. But the US is a much younger country, is vastly more religious and was partly born out of an Exodus.
Any sucessful Brexit involved calming down, planning and ditching most of the unhinged mythology of the Leave event. It would have been mushy bitter compromise but would have been deliverable.
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered....
What's Theresa May going to do differently from David Davis? He has all along been hamstrung by the contradictions of Mrs May's positions, which are those of the Leave Campaign.
You either accept what the EU demands, in which case it raises not for the first time the question of why we are going through all this pain, or you reject them entirely, which guarantees Brexit failure.
I sincerely hope your employer never lets you near a negotiation
I can say with confidence that my employer would never get itself into such unfavourable position in the first place, nor would it make a strategic decision based on a single word, not would it reject the current setup without considering alternatives or at least a general direction. It would not be so profoundly stupid
Do you sincerely believe May, Davis and/or Johnson are going to pull off a brilliant negotiation? Davis did, but he's being sidelined.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Clearly we need a Labour government to do a decent job of negotiating a Brexit deal in the best interest of the British people. Jog on Tezzie - give Jezza a chance.
In all seriousness, wouldn't PB's Conservatives prefer to have Sir Kier leading the negotiations rather than DD?
We could use another election.
Something needs to happen. The current zombie government lurches on with no idea where it is going or why.
Boris is itching to resign, but won't. May needs to sack him, but can't. DeXEU is apparently more dysfunctional than the Home Office. The cabinet is split top to bottom. There is no Parliamentary majority for any flavour of Brexit, or none.
Meanwhile the boss of JLR talks about the giant factory they are building in the EU, and the Brexiteers still haven't realised how bad this is going to be for UK industry
lol
JLR announced the factory before Brexit
they also have factories in China and India
its what car manufacturers do
maybe if Osborne had bothered his arse about manufacuring 7 years ago we;d be in better shape
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.
That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.
Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.
What could potentially kill Remainerism and further down the line the EU is a Brexit with no deal followed by a booming Uk.
Yes indeed. You are quite correct and, as a remainer myself, I would be very happy with such an outcome. I do not want to see the UK relegate itself to a backwater but I fear that is exactly what Brexit will do
It is far, far better for the UK for Remainers to be wrong about the outcome than for Leavers to be wrong about it.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.
It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.
What could potentially kill Remainerism and further down the line the EU is a Brexit with no deal followed by a booming Uk.
Yes indeed. You are quite correct and, as a remainer myself, I would be very happy with such an outcome. I do not want to see the UK relegate itself to a backwater but I fear that is exactly what Brexit will do
It is far, far better for the UK for Remainers to be wrong about the outcome than for Leavers to be wrong about it.
The success or failure of Brexit will be how the Uk reacts post Brexit. That I suspect will be much more important than the deal - and a billion times more important than the content of any transition deal.
What could potentially kill Remainerism and further down the line the EU is a Brexit with no deal followed by a booming Uk.
Yes indeed. You are quite correct and, as a remainer myself, I would be very happy with such an outcome. I do not want to see the UK relegate itself to a backwater but I fear that is exactly what Brexit will do
It is far, far better for the UK for Remainers to be wrong about the outcome than for Leavers to be wrong about it.
Same here, I would love to be wrong about this - I just can't see it though
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.
That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.
Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.
slightly off topic but Yellowsubmarine was talking about personal debt in the last thread and I pulled this information out last night when checking something
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
And in any event, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.
It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.
To an extent, yes. But not to the extremes. The UK paid a lot in anyway, to not quite be at the centre of things, and outside the eurozone, so it was always a slightly special case. Most other EU countries either pay far less, or receive net funding from the EU, so they have a very real interest in staying and for small countries - like Malta, and Ireland - it massively amplifies their international voice.
The key thing is that the EU can point to a few totems - e.g. show the UK has to comply with rules/ regulations/ obligations it now no longer has a say in - but otherwise realpolitik should (should) reign supreme.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?
What could potentially kill Remainerism and further down the line the EU is a Brexit with no deal followed by a booming Uk.
Yes indeed. You are quite correct and, as a remainer myself, I would be very happy with such an outcome. I do not want to see the UK relegate itself to a backwater but I fear that is exactly what Brexit will do
It is far, far better for the UK for Remainers to be wrong about the outcome than for Leavers to be wrong about it.
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
May appointed Davis, Johnson and Fox as leading Brexiteers to lead the Brexit process. They are clearly failing. She also recently appointed Damian Green, her old friend and leading Remainer as her Deputy. She has had a long holiday with her husband and presumably has a plan to take back control. She has a big speech on Friday and the Conference nine days later.
Here's my scenario. She fires Davis, Johnson and Fox. They had their chance. She rolls Davis's and Fox's departments back into the Foreign Office where they belong. She appoints Green as Foreign Secretary in charge of the Brexit process under May's guidance. May, Green, Rudd and Hammond successfully steer the UK to the softest of Brexit's and face down the Tory hardliners with help from the opposition parties.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.
It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.
Why would it be so bad if others were to follow the British path?
The EU path of ever closer union leading to a single federal state should be for those nations that want it. If there are nations that don't want it why is it awful for the EU if others choose a looser relationship like us? That way they can build a federal state of those who want it without being encumbered by reluctant heel-draggers.
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
They have parked the bus fairly effectively, but that is their agreed position, ratified by all the EU27 including France and Germany. It is not going to change because Theresa no mates wants it to change.
The default is WTO hard Brexit on 30 March 2019. Our team have not prepared for that.
They have prepared for it. No less a personage than the PM has said that "No deal is better than a bad deal" so that option is all sorted out.
Where you are mistaken, Dr Fox, is assuming that we have to do anything. All we have to do is fiddle and faddle for another 18 months and we get our "No Deal" that the PM endorsed.
Viewed in that light, the govt.s behaviour makes perfect sense.
This is obviously the Johnson/Gove/Rees-Mogg strategy - ensure the government remains hopelessly divided on what it wants thus ensuring the negotiations get nowhere and "no deal" automatically follows.
And at the moment this strategy is working. It's not clear that May has a realistic alternative, and even if she had her prospects of imposing it on her cabinet, let alone her party and the country as a whole, are remote.
From the perspective of JRM et al. confusion to deliver a WTO Brexit is a viable strategy.
The PM after Brexit will have next to no accountability and no interfering EU over him/her and clever use of those nice Henry VIII powers should sort out that pesky parliament's interference.
All we need is a self-obsessed populist desperate for the job of PM to put themselves forward
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?
They obviously weren't as powerful as the VI's that wanted them to stay in.
Ken Clarke. Ironically he's exactly the sort of person you would need to deliver Brexit.
Its all play acting at the moment, and will remain so for a while yet. The cold, hard reality of the prospect of a crash landing will dawn eventually though, and this will cause some unpredictable and panic-stricken developments.
May appointed Davis, Johnson and Fox as leading Brexiteers to lead the Brexit process. They are clearly failing. She also recently appointed Damian Green, her old friend and leading Remainer as her Deputy. She has had a long holiday with her husband and presumably has a plan to take back control. She has a big speech on Friday and the Conference nine days later.
Here's my scenario. She fires Davis, Johnson and Fox. They had their chance. She rolls Davis's and Fox's departments back into the Foreign Office where they belong. She appoints Green as Foreign Secretary in charge of the Brexit process under May's guidance. May, Green, Rudd and Hammond successfully steer the UK to the softest of Brexit's and face down the Tory hardliners with help from the opposition parties.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?
The Brits are creditors who make vast net payments. The Greeks are debtors who receive vast net receipts.
Can you spot the difference? He who pays the piper calls the tunes.
From the perspective of JRM et al. confusion to deliver a WTO Brexit is a viable strategy.
The PM after Brexit will have next to no accountability and no interfering EU over him/her and clever use of those nice Henry VIII powers should sort out that pesky parliament's interference.
All we need is a self-obsessed populist desperate for the job of PM to put themselves forward
In the current choppy waters, when so much is fluid, when so many difficult and sometimes unknowable decisions must be made, and when the short and long-term often seem in direct competition, integrity and judgment are rocks we could reliably cling to. Mrs May is not the future; she is barely even the present. Perhaps, of the current Cabinet, Ms Rudd comes closest; though still relatively unknown, she seems most likely to hold together the internal Tory coalition and at this stage is supported, in private at least, by the most credible grandees. There is also a growing sense among the 2010 intake that, by 2019, when and if Brexit occurs, it will be time to fall in behind one of their own number and seek to return to more prosaic governing concerns.
But it won’t be the Foreign Secretary. He’s going down; his shipmates, even the rats, are deserting and no one fancies mounting a rescue mission. The good ship Boris Johnson is, it seems, finally about to slip beneath the waves.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
And in any event, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.
It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.
To an extent, yes. But not to the extremes. The UK paid a lot in anyway, to not quite be at the centre of things, and outside the eurozone, so it was always a slightly special case. Most other EU countries either pay far less, or receive net funding from the EU, so they have a very real interest in staying and for small countries - like Malta, and Ireland - it massively amplifies their international voice.
The key thing is that the EU can point to a few totems - e.g. show the UK has to comply with rules/ regulations/ obligations it now no longer has a say in - but otherwise realpolitik should (should) reign supreme.
But aren't those few totems exactly what Gove, Davis, JRM, Farage et al* object to and will not support?
(*I exclude BoJo because frankly who knows what he wants?)
Ken Clarke. Ironically he's exactly the sort of person you would need to deliver Brexit.
Its all play acting at the moment, and will remain so for a while yet. The cold, hard reality of the prospect of a crash landing will dawn eventually though, and this will cause some unpredictable and panic-stricken developments.
Ken Clarke. Ironically he's exactly the sort of person you would need to deliver Brexit.
Its all play acting at the moment, and will remain so for a while yet. The cold, hard reality of the prospect of a crash landing will dawn eventually though, and this will cause some unpredictable and panic-stricken developments.
You may be right. We may yet live through (even more) interesting times!
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?
The Brits are creditors who make vast net payments. The Greeks are debtors who receive vast net receipts.
Can you spot the difference? He who pays the piper calls the tunes.
Well, if this is calling the tunes the government must be tone deaf.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?
The Brits are creditors who make vast net payments. The Greeks are debtors who receive vast net receipts.
Can you spot the difference? He who pays the piper calls the tunes.
Well, if this is calling the tunes the government must be tone deaf.
Greece had more leverage and more allies than we do.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Whether it's 9x or 4x, 'No Deal' will clearly hurt us much more than it hurts the rEU.
It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.
Why would it be so bad if others were to follow the British path?
The EU path of ever closer union leading to a single federal state should be for those nations that want it. If there are nations that don't want it why is it awful for the EU if others choose a looser relationship like us? That way they can build a federal state of those who want it without being encumbered by reluctant heel-draggers.
For the architects of the European project it would be very bad, the end of their dreams of ever closer union.
What could potentially kill Remainerism and further down the line the EU is a Brexit with no deal followed by a booming Uk.
As a Remainer, I hope you’re right! As far a booming UK is concerned, anyway. However, I suspect that you should should restrict your intake of ‘happy’ drugs.
Sack Boris. Sack DD. Sack Gove. Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer. Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec. Find a role for Rees-Mogg.
This is what happens when you don't triangulate after a 52%/48% referendum result. Not only did May do too little too late to separate Brexit its self from the Leave phenomenon she ramped things up. " Citizens of Nowhere " " The promise of Brexit ".
....
Instead entirely driven by the internal politics of the Tory Party we've engaged in the world's most complex negotiation as a form of national psychotherapy. The Therapist who is 9 times our size and looking at the clock is increasingly irritated and bewildered.
But unusually the status quo isn't an option. Usually this sort of psychological dysfunction leads to paralysis. But A50 means one of the options definitely happens by default in 18 months time.
9x? The rest of the EU is less than 4x the size of the UK economy and will only be just over 10% of world GDP when we leave. They are losing more than 20% of their entire output.
Powerful vested interests would have lost out badly in the event of a Greek exit from the Euro. Did that prevent the EU from facing down Tsipras and Varoufakis?
The Brits are creditors who make vast net payments. The Greeks are debtors who receive vast net receipts.
Can you spot the difference? He who pays the piper calls the tunes.
Well, if this is calling the tunes the government must be tone deaf.
Greece had more leverage and more allies than we do.
I am sure the EU would rather have lost Greece than the UK... but it's not about to compromise in any meaningful way with either.
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.
That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.
Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.
Sack Boris. Sack DD. Sack Gove. Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer. Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec. Find a role for Rees-Mogg.
Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.
Even if, per capita, the UK and Germany exported the same, you'd expect Germany to export more in total because they've got 15-20m more people than us.
Sack Boris. Sack DD. Sack Gove. Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer. Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec. Find a role for Rees-Mogg.
What has the NHS done to deserve Liam Fox? Hasn’t it suffered enough?
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.
That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.
Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.
Sack Boris. Sack DD. Sack Gove. Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer. Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec. Find a role for Rees-Mogg.
Don't forget to launch the flying pigs!
is it a question of if she doesnt do it to them.....they'll do it to her.....
Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.
January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound
If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.
May needs to sit down with the two people who actually matter - Merkel and Macron - and agree what is going to happen. M&M can then tell the Brussels egos to get in line and do what they are told.
, It is fairly fundamental to negotiation that we do not get to pick the other team.
Macron and Merkel are not going to knife their chief negotiator. That is the sort of thing the Brits do.
But they do not have a negotiator. Barnier and Juncker have no intention of negotiating
And they do not appear to have any consideration of what result would be best for Germany and France.
That's a misunderstanding. Barnier is tasked with delivering the consensus position of the EU27. We may or may not agree, but that position is the one France and Germany believe to be in their interests.
Thinking we know what's in their interests better than they do is one of the fundamental delusions of the Brexit mindset so this should come as no surprise. Many of these people would be quite happy to stay in the EU if the other countries recognised a pecking order with the UK at the top.
Sack Boris. Sack DD. Sack Gove. Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer. Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec. Find a role for Rees-Mogg.
Make Liam Fox Ambassador to the Islamic State.
Triggers a by election which one of David Cameron, Ruth Davidson, or George Osborne wins, and becomes Tory leader and PM within a few days by acclamation.
@JolyonMaugham: "All this 'if you jump off a cliff and spread your wings you'll find yourself flying into the blue yonder,' that's not a policy": Ken Clarke
Says the man who wanted us to join the Euro in 1999 and once said Westminster would end up with no more relevance than a local council debating chamber...
Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?
Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.
January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound
If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.
@JolyonMaugham: "All this 'if you jump off a cliff and spread your wings you'll find yourself flying into the blue yonder,' that's not a policy": Ken Clarke
Says the man who wanted us to join the Euro in 1999 and once said Westminster would end up with no more relevance than a local council debating chamber...
Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?
Because he was the finest Chancellor of my lifetime, he reformed the NHS and Education, he was always Maggie's go to man when a mess needed sorting out.
May appointed Davis, Johnson and Fox as leading Brexiteers to lead the Brexit process. They are clearly failing. She also recently appointed Damian Green, her old friend and leading Remainer as her Deputy. She has had a long holiday with her husband and presumably has a plan to take back control. She has a big speech on Friday and the Conference nine days later.
Here's my scenario. She fires Davis, Johnson and Fox. They had their chance. She rolls Davis's and Fox's departments back into the Foreign Office where they belong. She appoints Green as Foreign Secretary in charge of the Brexit process under May's guidance. May, Green, Rudd and Hammond successfully steer the UK to the softest of Brexit's and face down the Tory hardliners with help from the opposition parties.
Another departmental reorganization will just waste time I suspect. Taking back control of the negotiations does make sense if May has lost faith in the team. Doubt she can afford to sack all 3 Brexiteers though.
Keep Fox at DIT since he can't actually do much until the deal is done/maybe not even then? Keep Boris because he's actually not that involved in Brexit? Keep DD because maybe he's the most dangerous to her position?
Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.
January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound
If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.
1.12 is the latest on my XE app.
Sorry, it looks like my 'current' figure was actually from January. More successful devaluation since then!
@JolyonMaugham: "All this 'if you jump off a cliff and spread your wings you'll find yourself flying into the blue yonder,' that's not a policy": Ken Clarke
Says the man who wanted us to join the Euro in 1999 and once said Westminster would end up with no more relevance than a local council debating chamber...
Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?
Because he was the finest Chancellor of my lifetime.
Oh not that rubbish again... He wanted us to be permanently hoist to the ERM (with anybody with a mortgage thrown to the wolves) - It was only after we left the ERM that we started to recover... It happened completely by accident and despite Kenneth Clarke (and Major, Hezza, Lamont, etc) not because of him/them.
@JolyonMaugham: "All this 'if you jump off a cliff and spread your wings you'll find yourself flying into the blue yonder,' that's not a policy": Ken Clarke
Says the man who wanted us to join the Euro in 1999 and once said Westminster would end up with no more relevance than a local council debating chamber...
Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?
Clarke: "Any British government which allows itself to be afflicted by Euro-scepticism diminishes its influence on both European and world affairs."
Hesteltine: "Politically, shutting the door on the single currency would undermine Britain's position in the EU, draining away British influence with our continental partners."
@JolyonMaugham: "All this 'if you jump off a cliff and spread your wings you'll find yourself flying into the blue yonder,' that's not a policy": Ken Clarke
Says the man who wanted us to join the Euro in 1999 and once said Westminster would end up with no more relevance than a local council debating chamber...
Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?
Because he was the finest Chancellor of my lifetime.
Oh not that rubbish again... He wanted us to be permanently hoist to the ERM (with anybody with a mortgage thrown to the wolves) - It was only after we left the ERM that we started to recover... It happened completely by accident and despite Kenneth Clarke (and Major, Hezza, Lamont, etc) not because of him/them.
Nonsense.
Do you know what Ken Clarke's first act as Chancellor was?
He fired David Cameron, who was a SPAD to Norman Lamont.
Mr. Glenn, there has been a substantial decline in the pound but it's not since 1999 so much as the last year or so. Also, you're looking at the pound versus the euro, not the impact of the single currency on the German economy as against the Deutschmark. Are you really suggesting membership of the euro has not decreased the German exchange rate?
You've also not responded to the other points, including the rather basic one that Germany has significantly more people than us.
Mr. Glenn, Germany has a larger population, economy, is better, frankly, at exporting, and benefits from an artificially low exchange rate because it shares a currency with countries like Greece.
January 1999: 1.41 euros to the pound September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound
If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.
1.12 is the latest on my XE app.
Sorry, it looks like my 'current' figure was actually from January. More successful devaluation since then!
To be fair, there was a bit of an upward twitch recently after someone from the BoE suggested interest rates might rise.
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.
Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.
Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?
Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.
Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.
Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?
Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.
@JolyonMaugham: "All this 'if you jump off a cliff and spread your wings you'll find yourself flying into the blue yonder,' that's not a policy": Ken Clarke
Says the man who wanted us to join the Euro in 1999 and once said Westminster would end up with no more relevance than a local council debating chamber...
Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?
Because they like that he takes the wrong headed federalist position on Europe. If he was a Brexiteer we would never hear the end of him flogging cigs to poor Africans.
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.
Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.
Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?
Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.
Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.
Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?
Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.
Which EU countries are in depression?
Portugal, Spain and Greece have had a terrible time economically in the last 10 years.
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.
Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.
Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?
Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.
Which EU countries are in depression?
REMAINERs have been in permanent depression since 24th June 2016
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.
Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.
Why does Germany export more to Australia today than the UK does? Why are we not embracing the opportunities today?
Because Germany is in the Euro at an undervalued rate. Germany gets more exports, despite EU trade barriers, at the cost of depression in half of Europe.
Which EU countries are in depression?
Portugal, Spain and Greece have had a terrible time economically in the last 10 years.
Yeah, I have noticed the (independent) BoE governor and Osborne crony Carney is still fighting the good fight for Remain...
You can't refute the statistics/data/analysis, so you play the man and not the ball.
The statistics show a 3% decline in wages for every 10% increase in low skill immigrants. Averaging them with high skilled migrants to hide the effect doesn't make it go away.
And that's before you add in the extra taxes for social housing and increased terrorism risk.
Knives have been out for Mogg, Davis, Johnson and of course May. Current midprices at Betfair for the five in the péloton are
Davis 7.7 Johnson 7.7 Mogg 9.1 Rudd 10.75 Hammond 11.05
At the moment my (~dutched) investment is in Davis, Rudd and Mogg. Of those, my feeling is that the most likely is Rudd: viewed as solid, having sufficient character to stand in battle for the team, no knives out for her yet.
But those prices imply a probability of 45% that it will be someone else.
The field seems ideal for such a someone to come through the middle. Could that be Dominic Raab? Could he be a north-of-the-channel version of Macron? Any signs that he's preparing?
F1: still keeping an early eye on weather for Malaysia. It varies between some rain and lots of rain. If that keeps up, Verstappen, Alonso and Hulkenberg may be value. Also the possibility of Sauber points, although odds on that (whilst long) tend to not quite be as overpriced.
Last year, I think, we're off to Malaysia. Bit of a shame as I quite like the circuit.
I'm struggling to believe that a huge increase in labour at a time of mass automation doesn't drive down wages.
So it is your anecdote/supposition versus actual facts and data.
The Governor is quoting from a paper, that is regularly quoted on this subject.
Importantly, in the abstract, this paper makes the following statement:
"Our results also reveal that the biggest impact of immigration on wages is within the semi/unskilled services occupational group"
Later they write:
"The static results suggest that the statistically significant negative effects of immigration on wages are concentrated among skilled production workers, and semi/unskilled service workers."
As far as I can tell the figure they come up with around 2% difference. Not much, but maybe enough to feed a sense of grievance.
This class of worker is probably the one most likely to be complaining about the situation, as it seems the managerial/professional/public sector worker section voted Remain.
Knives have been out for Mogg, Davis, Johnson and of course May. Current midprices at Betfair for the five in the péloton are
Davis 7.7 Johnson 7.7 Mogg 9.1 Rudd 10.75 Hammond 11.05
At the moment my (~dutched) investment is in Davis, Rudd and Mogg. Of those, my feeling is that the most likely is Rudd: viewed as solid, having sufficient character to stand in battle for the team, no knives out for her yet.
But those prices imply a probability of 45% that it will be someone else.
The field seems ideal for such a someone to come through the middle. Could that be Dominic Raab? Could he be a north-of-the-channel version of Macron? Any signs that he's preparing?
Since he seems to be a Brexiteer, he's unlikely to be our Macron.
in 1950 Europeans were 20% of world population by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
There is a difference between becoming sidelined due to other's growth and hurling yourself into the nearest pit. Brexit is the latter.
Embracing the opportunities available to us with the other 95% [more actually as the 5% includes us] is not a pit.
What opportunities are there that the EU prevents us from taking up?
None. We blame the nearest bogeyman for not getting off our own backsides and doing stuff right. It is like immigration. We could have blocked immigrants from the accession countries in the eastern EU but we chose not to. Now we blame the EU for sending us immigrants.
Mrs C, think replacing Carney (excepting the natural replacement which always happens on schedule) would be daft.
That said, the new money is rubbish. The plastic fivers are like Monopoly money, and the threepenny pound coins are surprisingly disappointing. The old threepenny bits were better. #numismatics
Edited extra bit: and cutting rates to 0.25% was bloody silly.
Sack Boris. Sack DD. Sack Gove. Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer. Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec. Find a role for Rees-Mogg.
Make Liam Fox Ambassador to the Islamic State.
Triggers a by election which one of David Cameron, Ruth Davidson, or George Osborne wins, and becomes Tory leader and PM within a few days by acclamation.
All sorted.
A plan so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel.
Comments
Where you are mistaken, Dr Fox, is assuming that we have to do anything. All we have to do is fiddle and faddle for another 18 months and we get our "No Deal" that the PM endorsed.
Viewed in that light, the govt.s behaviour makes perfect sense.
Just a question from me today - why does everyone have to have a "Chief of Staff" these days ? Is this a glorified PA or the person who does your thinking for you ?
We're talking 2022 so they will have been in power/PM for five, some seven years, some longer. There is a non-trivial probability that the public either won't understand what a hard Brexit means, or the lag between March 2019 hard Brexit and any effect is quite long (in today's 24-hr news timescale), and therefore there must be a 15-20% chance, perhaps higher, that by the next GE people think all is well and give the Cons another go.
Certainly a rational move.
And at the moment this strategy is working. It's not clear that May has a realistic alternative, and even if she had her prospects of imposing it on her cabinet, let alone her party and the country as a whole, are remote.
UK GDP is around 16% of total EU GDP, so rEU is around five and a quarter the size:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
JLR announced the factory before Brexit
they also have factories in China and India
its what car manufacturers do
maybe if Osborne had bothered his arse about manufacuring 7 years ago we;d be in better shape
It is far, far better for the UK for Remainers to be wrong about the outcome than for Leavers to be wrong about it.
It is absolutely vital to the EU project that the UK is not seen to be getting a good deal - if it were they'd risk others following whenever the going gets difficult. So it's hardly surprising that they will offer as little as possible. I don't condone it, but it's quite predicatable.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/24/eu-trade-deal-with-canada-collapses-as-belgium-refuses-to-sign
The key thing is that the EU can point to a few totems - e.g. show the UK has to comply with rules/ regulations/ obligations it now no longer has a say in - but otherwise realpolitik should (should) reign supreme.
by 2050 theyll be about 5%
whatever happens we are on our way to being a backwater and there's nothing you can do about it unless we decide we want Irish sized families again
"I'll see your 10 kids and raise you to twelve etc."
Here's my scenario. She fires Davis, Johnson and Fox. They had their chance. She rolls Davis's and Fox's departments back into the Foreign Office where they belong. She appoints Green as Foreign Secretary in charge of the Brexit process under May's guidance. May, Green, Rudd and Hammond successfully steer the UK to the softest of Brexit's and face down the Tory hardliners with help from the opposition parties.
The EU path of ever closer union leading to a single federal state should be for those nations that want it. If there are nations that don't want it why is it awful for the EU if others choose a looser relationship like us? That way they can build a federal state of those who want it without being encumbered by reluctant heel-draggers.
The PM after Brexit will have next to no accountability and no interfering EU over him/her and clever use of those nice Henry VIII powers should sort out that pesky parliament's interference.
All we need is a self-obsessed populist desperate for the job of PM to put themselves forward
The Greeks are debtors who receive vast net receipts.
Can you spot the difference? He who pays the piper calls the tunes.
But it won’t be the Foreign Secretary. He’s going down; his shipmates, even the rats, are deserting and no one fancies mounting a rescue mission. The good ship Boris Johnson is, it seems, finally about to slip beneath the waves.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15542285.Chris_Deerin__The_good_ship_BoJo_is_in_danger_of_being_scuppered_by_blind_ambition/
(*I exclude BoJo because frankly who knows what he wants?)
Sack Boris.
Sack DD.
Sack Gove.
Move Liam to Health and amalgamate his and DD's role, which Hunt will then have as Supreme Brexit Overseer.
Give Cameron a peerage and make him Foreign Sec.
Find a role for Rees-Mogg.
If you don't want him to be part of the conversation you tell him to go away. Switching to another language is just rude.
Even if, per capita, the UK and Germany exported the same, you'd expect Germany to export more in total because they've got 15-20m more people than us.
September 2017: 1.16 euros to the pound
If devaluing the currency has been Germany's aim, the UK seems to have found a far more potent method.
Triggers a by election which one of David Cameron, Ruth Davidson, or George Osborne wins, and becomes Tory leader and PM within a few days by acclamation.
All sorted.
Time and time and time again Clarke has been wrong on Europe. Why do people keep listening to the old fool?
He's an eminent Q.C. to boot as well.
Taking back control of the negotiations does make sense if May has lost faith in the team.
Doubt she can afford to sack all 3 Brexiteers though.
Keep Fox at DIT since he can't actually do much until the deal is done/maybe not even then?
Keep Boris because he's actually not that involved in Brexit?
Keep DD because maybe he's the most dangerous to her position?
Tricky choices.
I'm wearing my North Face arctic gear.
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/909805442196545536
Hesteltine: "Politically, shutting the door on the single currency would undermine Britain's position in the EU, draining away British influence with our continental partners."
They weren't wrong.
Do you know what Ken Clarke's first act as Chancellor was?
He fired David Cameron, who was a SPAD to Norman Lamont.
You've also not responded to the other points, including the rather basic one that Germany has significantly more people than us.
(That was before he got locked away for the rest of the campaign.)
And that's before you add in the extra taxes for social housing and increased terrorism risk.
Maybe he's still locked in Osborne's basement?
Davis 7.7
Johnson 7.7
Mogg 9.1
Rudd 10.75
Hammond 11.05
At the moment my (~dutched) investment is in Davis, Rudd and Mogg. Of those, my feeling is that the most likely is Rudd: viewed as solid, having sufficient character to stand in battle for the team, no knives out for her yet.
But those prices imply a probability of 45% that it will be someone else.
The field seems ideal for such a someone to come through the middle. Could that be Dominic Raab? Could he be a north-of-the-channel version of Macron? Any signs that he's preparing?
Last year, I think, we're off to Malaysia. Bit of a shame as I quite like the circuit.
They used to do that sort of thing in Communist govts and look where it got them. Maybe Mr Carney knows what is he on about.
Importantly, in the abstract, this paper makes the following statement:
"Our results also reveal that the biggest impact of immigration on wages is within the semi/unskilled services occupational group"
Later they write:
"The static results suggest that the statistically significant negative effects of immigration on wages are concentrated among skilled production workers, and semi/unskilled service workers."
As far as I can tell the figure they come up with around 2% difference. Not much, but maybe enough to feed a sense of grievance.
This class of worker is probably the one most likely to be complaining about the situation, as it seems the managerial/professional/public sector worker section voted Remain.
edit: the paper: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/workingpapers/2015/swp574.aspx
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/zenith-appoints-former-m-s-boss-1-8760236
And it sounds as if the 'wages go up' stuff was just the usual Boris mischief:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/lord-stuart-rose-misquoted-post-eu-brexit-wage-increases
That said, the new money is rubbish. The plastic fivers are like Monopoly money, and the threepenny pound coins are surprisingly disappointing. The old threepenny bits were better. #numismatics
Edited extra bit: and cutting rates to 0.25% was bloody silly.