politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prize Competition: How long a standing ovation will TMay get a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prize Competition: How long a standing ovation will TMay get at her party conference?
After an election that didn’t quite go to plan “How long in minutes and seconds will the standing ovation be at the end of Theresa May’s main speech at the Conservative Party conference in October?” This is the subject of the latest PB competition.
Comments
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First like Corbyn....
... and off to Tescos. Enjoy yourselves!
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Second like Corbyn0
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MY ENTRY 0 Minutes 42 Seconds.0
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MY ENTRY 3 Minutes 59 Seconds0
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MY ENTRY 0 minutes 30 seconds.
I could be wrong about the Mercedes tyre call - the drying track seems to suit the wearing inters.0 -
Could she beat IDS for the number of standing ovations?0
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MY ENTRY 6 Minutes 59 Seconds0
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Next couple of laps decide the race.0
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I think Theresa's minders will be wary of any IDS comparisons. But they'll also not want it to look like a snub. So I'm going for above three minutes (highly appreciative) but not quite four (starting to look gushing).williamglenn said:Could she beat IDS for the number of standing ovations?
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FPT:
LOL I'm not a Corbyn sympathiser. I've been pretty critical of him on here for the most part. I'm still not a fan.HYUFD said:
Actually Corbyn doing better than expected last time may well have given the Tories one more term in power.The_Apocalypse said:@HYUFD If Tory party members are really thinking like you are, then the Tories really are doomed.
Of course the Tories need to win over voters. The idea that this situation is remotely desirable for the party is hilarious. They did not call a GE to lose their majority and be put into a situation where they have to rely on the DUP to cobble together a knife-edge majority. This situation has meant that they've had to drop much of the agenda in that they wanted to go forward with in government and instead have to cede ground to Labour. Parties want to get into government so that they can implement their agenda - right now the Tories are a party in government but not in power.
And while Corbyn needs to win over voters, he's in much better situation to do so than the Tories are. The Conservatives at this stage have very little ace cards over Corbyn and that's situation looks set to get worse.
As Corbyn sympathisers like you are now going for the 'one more heave' strategy you are making no effort to appeal to the 42% who voted Tory just consolidating the 40% you got and the current polls reflect that. If the Tories had got a majority last time and Labour replaced Corbyn with a more electable and moderate leader the Tories would probably be in a more precarious position
Your first point runs on the line that people voted Labour only because they thought the party weren't going to win. Given the degree of support for Corbyn's manifesto and the rise in his personal ratings, this is doubtful.
I'm not going one for one heave strategy. It's Momentum and Corbyn that are doing that. And it's not true they are making no effort to appeal to Tories - Momentum/Labour activists are already campaigning in Tory areas now trying to build up support. They were recently in Grant Shapps' constituency.
This idea that a Blair style Labour leader would have done better than Corbyn at this stage is foolhardy. There is deep dissatisfaction with the current economic status quo, a Blairite centrist who supports that status quo isn't going to gain as much support as someone who challenges it. That is why Corbyn did so well among under 45s.
The polls also told us a few months before the GE that May was going to win a big/significant majority. Opinium and many other polls with the exception of Survation and YouGov also told us the Tories were on course to win a majority and look how that turned out.0 -
A standing ovation, possibly, but I can't see May doing a victory lap of the hall.Nigelb said:Next couple of laps decide the race.
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Unless the audience all hold sheaves of wheat ?williamglenn said:
A standing ovation, possibly, but I can't see May doing a victory lap of the hall.Nigelb said:Next couple of laps decide the race.
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6 minutes 41 seconds.0
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My Entry: 1 minute 4 seconds.
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84 seconds.0
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Singapore GP looks to be game over.0
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MY ENTRY 0 minutes 0 seconds (no standing ovation)0
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She's in real trouble so it'll be long but they won't want " longer than IDS " headlines.0
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MY ENTRY: 9 minutes and 21 seconds.
Boris to be the first to sit down...0 -
You are anti Tory which is Corbyn sympathiser enough. Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
LOL I'm not a Corbyn sympathiser. I've been pretty critical of him on here for the most part. I'm still not a fan.HYUFD said:
Actually Corbyn doing better than expected last time may well have nThe_Apocalypse said:@HYUFD If Tory party members are really thinking like you are, then the Tories really are doomed.
Of course the Tories need to win rse.
Your first point runs on the line that people voted Labour only because they thought the party weren't going to win. Given the degree of support for Corbyn's manifesto and the rise in his personal ratings, this is doubtful.
I'm not going one for one heave strategy. It's Momentum and Corbyn that are doing that. And it's not true they are making no effort to appeal to Tories - Momentum/Labour activists are already campaigning in Tory areas now trying to build up support. They were recently in Grant Shapps' constituency.
This idea that a Blair style Labour leader would have done better than Corbyn at this stage is foolhardy. There is deep dissatisfaction with the current economic status quo, a Blairite centrist who supports that status quo isn't going to gain as much support as someone who challenges it. That is why Corbyn did so well among under 45s.
The polls also told us a few months before the GE that May was going to win a big/significant majority. Opinium and many other polls with the exception of Survation and YouGov also told us the Tories were on course to win a majority and look how that turned out.
Momentum had plenty of activists in Tory marginals last time but the Tories still won most of them because they made no effort to appeal to Tories in policy terms. Hence the Tories won almost 60 more seats than Labour.
A Blair rehash is not needed just a leader who does not want to turn the UK into Venezuela. The Tories won 42% in June, their highest voteshare since 1987 in a general election for a reason even if Corbyn united the left behind him
Yougov also had it tied last week and Survation has a Labour score similar to other pollsters just a slightly higher UKIP score at the expense of the Tories. All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 20170 -
MY ENTRY 6 minutes 30 seconds0
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"Young CCO press officers had been positioned around the hall to co-ordinate the 17 standing ovations for Mr Duncan Smith as he launched into an attack on the plotters - "get on board or get out of the way" - and the most vitriolic personal attack he had ever made against the Prime Minister, and his "double-dealing, deceitful, incompetent, shallow, inefficient, ineffective, corrupt, mendacious, fraudulent, shameful, lying" Government."
I think that has aged rather well.0 -
MY ENTRY 4 min 30 sec.0
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@HYUFD
Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.
'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.
The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.
Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.0 -
Edit - Tweet deleted0
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Good call!Benpointer said:MY ENTRY 0 minutes 0 seconds (no standing ovation)
Though she would get a standing ovation if she announced "I resign!"0 -
I think Corbyn is a small c conservative.The_Apocalypse said:@HYUFD
Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.
'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.
The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.
Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.
I agree though, things are only going to get worse for the Tories. I think Labour's continuous campaigning in marginals is a good strategy. It will be remembered on GE day, and that is within 18 months, I reckon.0 -
MY ENTRY 8 Minutes 30 Seconds.0
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TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Boris is taking a leaf out of the Trump playbook. The more shameless, expansive and blatant the fibs, and the more it infuriates the right-thinking mainstream, the more grass roots love it. Boris will ride this horse all the way to the Tory leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I presume this contest is null and void if she is gone before conference
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Agreed, that's the flaw in my thinking. I'll win if she doesn't turn up for some reason though!foxinsoxuk said:
Good call!Benpointer said:MY ENTRY 0 minutes 0 seconds (no standing ovation)
Though she would get a standing ovation if she announced "I resign!"0 -
Spot on.Stark_Dawning said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Boris is taking a leaf out of the Trump playbook. The more shameless, expansive and blatant the fibs, and the more it infuriates the right-thinking mainstream, the more grass roots love it. Boris will ride this horse all the way to the Tory leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Are people really worried about £350 MILLION.TheScreamingEagles said:Edit - Tweet deleted
Cameron lied over a thousand times as much:
' David Cameron has received a reprimand from the official statistics watchdog over his claim that the government was "paying down Britain's debts".
The prime minister's assertion in last week's Conservative party political broadcast tiggered a furious complaint by Labour, which described his comments as "deliberately misleading" as the debt was actually rising.
Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Andrew Dilnot, confirmed on Friday that public sector net debt has risen from £811bn in 2010 when the coalition took office to £1.1tn at the end of last year. '
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/feb/01/david-cameron-rebuked-over-debt-claims
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Agreed. Sadly they'll have well and truly screwed up the country royally by thenfoxinsoxuk said:
I think Corbyn is a small c conservative.The_Apocalypse said:@HYUFD
Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.
'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.
The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.
Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.
I agree though, things are only going to get worse for the Tories. I think Labour's continuous campaigning in marginals is a good strategy. It will be remembered on GE day, and that is within 18 months, I reckon.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Edit - Tweet deleted
Was it a good one while it lasted?0 -
MY ENTRY 1 minute 13 seconds0
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Let's assume it was a classic.Benpointer said:
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No. Wilson got 44% in 1964 and Attlee 46% even in 1950 on pretty left-wing manifestos and Corbyn got nowhere near that, he even got less than Blair got in 2001. May by contrast with 42.3% got the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher's 42.4% in 1983.The_Apocalypse said:@HYUFD
Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.
'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.
The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.
Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.
The Tories did not get a majority because of the dementia tax etc which will be dropped next time and as Corbyn neutralised the Brexit issue which he can't do next time. Next time the Tories will be more realistic focusing on holding seats and a few targets not unrealistic targets and getting a majority however small, my seat for example last time targeted Ilford North and Enfield North to send workers which even Ed Miliband won next time Tory workers will be sent to Thurrock and Chingford and indeed local Tories have already attended an action day in the latter0 -
If TMay is gone before the conference or does not make a speech then 0 seconds the winner. Same goes if there is no standing ovation0
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I live in hopeMikeSmithson said:If TMay is gone before the conference or does not make a speech then 0 seconds the winner. Same goes if there is no standing ovation
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Rentoul not so sure. She is Amber Rudd in this and other tweets:Stark_Dawning said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Boris is taking a leaf out of the Trump playbook. The more shameless, expansive and blatant the fibs, and the more it infuriates the right-thinking mainstream, the more grass roots love it. Boris will ride this horse all the way to the Tory leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9094045915607736330 -
Dunno.
MY ENTRY 1 Minutes 21 Seconds
Who knows, though.
Pay close attention to the MP's who keep on clapping the longest. It'll be the most enthusiastic clappers who dispatch her.0 -
Boris's spokesman is now trying to throw Norgrove under a bus.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411902178168832
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/9094119769206169610 -
There is nothing more depressing than clever people like @Casino_Royale pretending to be thick to make a party political point. The links/overlaps/commonalities between the current Australian Gay Marriage consultation and Brexit are these.#1 A centre right PM wanted to go down the referendum route to settle an identity issue that was splitting his party and he had no majority for. #2 When parliament voted down the referendum legislation many in the debate explicitly referenced our Brexit referendum as a model to avoid both in terms of delegating parliamentary functions to a referendum. They also cited culture war fears in the light of our vote and the effect that could have on LGBT communities. #3 When the referendum legislation failed the government proceeded anyway with a publically funded all postal non bind consultation. But one asking a binary question with only a Yes/No answer properly. #4 Even that was delayed by legal challenges over whether the cost of the consultation could be authorised under dusting legislation in the absence of dedicated referendum legislation which parliament rejected.
There seem to be clear echos of our Brexit debate from Cameron's referendum pledge through to the Miller case.
That all this is taking place in an anglophone commonwealth democracy a year after our own referendum should be perfectly reasonable grounds to reference it in a debate. More so when it was the third media link in a series of three the first two being the Catalonian and Kurdish independence votes which are happening in the next fortnight. Two legally dubious votes which are throwing up so many similar issues to what the UK has been through twice now with #indyref and #euref.
But apparently gently offering a choice of or international contexts for our own mudslinging makes me a " fanatic ".0 -
HYUFD said:
All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017
Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?0 -
Sometimes best not to let a bit of trolling worry you.YellowSubmarine said:There is nothing more depressing than clever people like @Casino_Royale pretending to be thick to make a party political point. The links/overlaps/commonalities between the current Australian Gay Marriage consultation and Brexit are these.#1 A centre right PM wanted to go down the referendum route to settle an identity issue that was splitting his party and he had no majority for. #2 When parliament voted down the referendum legislation many in the debate explicitly referenced our Brexit referendum as a model to avoid both in terms of delegating parliamentary functions to a referendum. They also cited culture war fears in the light of our vote and the effect that could have on LGBT communities. #3 When the referendum legislation failed the government proceeded anyway with a publically funded all postal non bind consultation. But one asking a binary question with only a Yes/No answer properly. #4 Even that was delayed by legal challenges over whether the cost of the consultation could be authorised under dusting legislation in the absence of dedicated referendum legislation which parliament rejected.
There seem to be clear echos of our Brexit debate from Cameron's referendum pledge through to the Miller case.
That all this is taking place in an anglophone commonwealth democracy a year after our own referendum should be perfectly reasonable grounds to reference it in a debate. More so when it was the third media link in a series of three the first two being the Catalonian and Kurdish independence votes which are happening in the next fortnight. Two legally dubious votes which are throwing up so many similar issues to what the UK has been through twice now with #indyref and #euref.
But apparently gently offering a choice of or international contexts for our own mudslinging makes me a " fanatic ".
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That is absolutely not compatible with Norgrove's letter. Dunno if the letter has been officially withdrawn or something though.williamglenn said:Boris's spokesman is now trying to throw Norgrove under a bus.
htps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411902178168832
htps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411976920616961
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This is a most interesting debate which throws rather a lot of shade on the black and white SeanT type approach to islam:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/the-muslim-feminist-group-scrambling-frances-left-right-divides/539856/0 -
Margaret Thatcher got an 11 minute standing ovation in 1987 after her third election victory.So as I have read on here so many times that May won even without a majority. So MY ENTRY 3 minutes 59 seconds for one election victory, I think that would be fair.0
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Does everyone have to stand up? I know that’s a problem at a Tory conference, with people having to be helped to their feet.Pong said:Dunno.
MY ENTRY 1 Minutes 21 Seconds
Who knows, though.
Pay close attention to the MP's who keep on clapping the longest. It'll be the most enthusiastic clappers who dispatch her.0 -
Meanwhile a Scotsman poll shows that simultaneously support for Independence is up to 46% but that Scots voters will remove the majority needed to call such a vote from the Scottish Parliament in 2021. Now Scots independence is not today's thread theme but you'd think a betting site would at least entertain the possibility of the above statistics leading to the SNP cutting and running on #indyref2 before the next Holyrood election as their windows slams shut.
But this too is verboten to the PB Brexiteers. Apparently only 46% support for Independence is " pathetic " .0 -
I am looking at going to the Russia World cup.NickPalmer said:HYUFD said:All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017
Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?
I recall you had a good Moscow hotel, could you remind me of it? Anything in St Petersberg too? going with Fox jr.0 -
Some have, some haven't, some have made minor tweaks, some are still reviewing their processes and put a hold on their political polling until they've reviewed everything.NickPalmer said:HYUFD said:All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017
Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?
Put it this way, the most accurate pollster, Survation haven't changed their methodology, and their most recent poll gives Labour a 5% lead.0 -
deleted0
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Threat level reduced.0
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Of course it is, just 1% more than 2014 in the best poll for Yes is.YellowSubmarine said:Meanwhile a Scotsman poll shows that simultaneously support for Independence is up to 46% but that Scots voters will remove the majority needed to call such a vote from the Scottish Parliament in 2021. Now Scots independence is not today's thread theme but you'd think a betting site would at least entertain the possibility of the above statistics leading to the SNP cutting and running on #indyref2 before the next Holyrood election as their windows slams shut.
But this too is verboten to the PB Brexiteers. Apparently only 46% support for Independence is " pathetic " .
The Spanish of course have sent in the military and police to stop a referendum on independence in Catalonia so Scottish nationalists should be grateful for the referendum they have had0 -
Yes absolutely! One person sat down, even in a wheelchair, and it's not a SO.OldKingCole said:
Does everyone have to stand up? I know that’s a problem at a Tory conference, with people having to be helped to their feet.Pong said:Dunno.
MY ENTRY 1 Minutes 21 Seconds
Who knows, though.
Pay close attention to the MP's who keep on clapping the longest. It'll be the most enthusiastic clappers who dispatch her.
Wait... Maybe I am taking this all too seriously?0 -
Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times
SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).0 -
The coup has failed?rottenborough said:Threat level reduced.
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MY ENTRY 2 minutes 48 seconds0
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But I digress. As the PB Brexit mob has moved on to it's new toy. Boris is going to replace May by Spring 2019 having engineered a chaotic but jingoistic Brexit, will call another early election and this time win the landslide everyone ( including me ) predicted May would. This is so obvious anyone challenging the narrative is a " Corbyn sympathiser ".
PB Brexiteers decent into Millenarian Cult status is certainly entertaining. No matter how many times the Saviour/Aliens/End of the World doesn't turn up they just shove the date into the future and ramp up the belief.0 -
williamglenn said:
The coup has failed?rottenborough said:Threat level reduced.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: interesting result. Setting about the post-race analysis now.
MY ENTRY 3 minutes 12 seconds.0 -
IDS got one of the longest standing ovations -just before he was overthrown.
Corbyn of course will receive a delirious reception at the Labour conference. A whole week as the faithful celebrate Corbyn's triumphant defeat, a public demonstration of hubris which will put Neil Kinnock's Sheffield rally in the shade.
Oh dear!0 -
A PM who tolerates such a split with her Foreign Secretary, on the issue facing the country is in a very weak position indeed.williamglenn said:
The coup has failed?rottenborough said:Threat level reduced.
Perhaps an interesting bet would be on the duration of the ovation for Boris vs Theresa...0 -
Thanks to the Formula One tipsters on the previous thread btw. Hamilton at 20s; Verstappen DNF at 4s; fewer than 14 finishers.0
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It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.Benpointer said:
That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.0 -
The letter is genuine.another_richard said:
It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.Benpointer said:
That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.
https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/9093942009024757770 -
Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.0
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I do like this tweet from Ferrari. Nice to know the former Iraqi Information Minister is working for Ferrari.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.
https://twitter.com/ScuderiaFerrari/status/9093884286300037160 -
Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times
SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).0 -
Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.0
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Who said anything about a landslide? Even a Boris majority of 1 would be enoughYellowSubmarine said:But I digress. As the PB Brexit mob has moved on to it's new toy. Boris is going to replace May by Spring 2019 having engineered a chaotic but jingoistic Brexit, will call another early election and this time win the landslide everyone ( including me ) predicted May would. This is so obvious anyone challenging the narrative is a " Corbyn sympathiser ".
PB Brexiteers decent into Millenarian Cult status is certainly entertaining. No matter how many times the Saviour/Aliens/End of the World doesn't turn up they just shove the date into the future and ramp up the belief.0 -
Theresa May is in a very weak position and has been since June: each of the big beasts has enough backbench followers to bring her down. That is why I am not rushing to back any potential stars on the backbenches whose path to the cabinet is blocked unless the PM can find someone who fancies a new ermine dressing gown.foxinsoxuk said:
A PM who tolerates such a split with her Foreign Secretary, on the issue facing the country is in a very weak position indeed.williamglenn said:
The coup has failed?rottenborough said:Threat level reduced.
Perhaps an interesting bet would be on the duration of the ovation for Boris vs Theresa...
On ovations and your second point, I'd imagine the aim will be for the PM to get 30 seconds longer than Boris. Unfortunately OGH is closing entries tomorrow.0 -
MY ENTRY 0 Minute 20 seconds0
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If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times
SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).0 -
So why delete the tweet ?TheScreamingEagles said:
The letter is genuine.another_richard said:
It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.Benpointer said:
That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.
https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/9093942009024757770 -
I think that was my best F1 betting day ever!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.
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You'd have to take it up with Sebastian Payne.another_richard said:
So why delete the tweet ?TheScreamingEagles said:
The letter is genuine.another_richard said:
It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.Benpointer said:
That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.
https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/9093942009024757770 -
I think the stewards might be about to disagree with the Scuderia.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do like this tweet from Ferrari. Nice to know the former Iraqi Information Minister is working for Ferrari.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.
https://twitter.com/ScuderiaFerrari/status/9093884286300037160 -
MY ENTRY 6 minutes 01 seconds0
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Just Ferrari showing their usual class.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do like this tweet from Ferrari. Nice to know the former Iraqi Information Minister is working for Ferrari.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.
https://twitter.com/ScuderiaFerrari/status/909388428630003716
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“Once we have settled our accounts, we will take back control of roughly £350 million a week,” Johnson writes in the Telegraph.TheScreamingEagles said:
The letter is genuine.another_richard said:
It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.Benpointer said:
That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.
https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/909394200902475777
“It would be a fine thing, as many of us have pointed out, if a lot of that money went on the NHS, provided we use that cash injection to modernise and make the most of new technology.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-repeats-false-350-11181716
That language wriggles round Norgrove's point: we will have "taken back control" of money which we decide to use to give to ag/scientific research to replace eu payments; bojo is only talking about "a lot of money" not all of it.
We do btw need to scrap the convention that headlines are written by sub-editors, it is ridiculous that the only bit of an article which 99% of readers take in, is written by someone other than the author.0 -
Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.
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Not sure it's quite as clearcut as that - probably didn't imagine that Raikkonen would get the drop on him as well as Verstappen - but it was pretty stupid given the state of the championship.TheScreamingEagles said:
Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.
For Ferrari to blame Verstappen is both risible and contemptible.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, congrats
If Alonso had won [and that was plausible] it would've been my best ever. Still, happy to be green.
Mr. Eagles, you are a tinker.0 -
It was the Ibis - in fact my review appears top of the Tripadvisor list, and the other reviews seem to generally agree:foxinsoxuk said:
I am looking at going to the Russia World cup.NickPalmer said:HYUFD said:All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017
Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?
I recall you had a good Moscow hotel, could you remind me of it? Anything in St Petersberg too? going with Fox jr.
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g298484-d4961665-Reviews-Ibis_Moscow_Centre_Bakhrushina-Moscow_Central_Russia.html
At £40-odd/night it's a snip.
I can't remember where I stayed in StP, sorry!0 -
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Boris needs to make the speech of his life. His moment has come. If he presses all the right buttons, while still sounding unimpeachably loyal, then the conference will end with Boris as leader in all but name.foxinsoxuk said:
A PM who tolerates such a split with her Foreign Secretary, on the issue facing the country is in a very weak position indeed.williamglenn said:
The coup has failed?rottenborough said:Threat level reduced.
Perhaps an interesting bet would be on the duration of the ovation for Boris vs Theresa...0 -
2 minutes, 45 seconds.0
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That's kind of always been a thing, since 2007 anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times
SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).
Still, indy support up, pro EU membership up, Brexitory credibility ever more diaphanous; one must seek succour where one can.0 -
For the tweet alone Ferrari and Vettel to be punished.Nigelb said:
Not sure it's quite as clearcut as that - probably didn't imagine that Raikkonen would get the drop on him as well as Verstappen - but it was pretty stupid given the state of the championship.TheScreamingEagles said:
Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.
For Ferrari to blame Verstappen is both risible and contemptible.0 -
If you start penalising trash talking in F1, no one's going to make it to the grid.TheScreamingEagles said:
For the tweet alone Ferrari and Vettel to be punished.Nigelb said:
Not sure it's quite as clearcut as that - probably didn't imagine that Raikkonen would get the drop on him as well as Verstappen - but it was pretty stupid given the state of the championship.TheScreamingEagles said:
Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.
For Ferrari to blame Verstappen is both risible and contemptible.
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Structurally everything is set up for Labour to be forced onto the fence somewhat on independence. That would be a game changer.Theuniondivvie said:
That's kind of always been a thing, since 2007 anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times
SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).
Still, indy support up, pro EU membership up, Brexitory credibility ever more diaphanous; one must seek succour where one can.0 -
If Brexit continues on its current trajectory I won't be shocked to see polling showing Yes to Independence ahead in the next six months.Theuniondivvie said:
That's kind of always been a thing, since 2007 anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.TheScreamingEagles said:Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times
SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).
Still, indy support up, pro EU membership up, Brexitory credibility ever more diaphanous; one must seek succour where one can.0 -
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