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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prize Competition: How long a standing ovation will TMay get at her party conference?

After an election that didn’t quite go to plan “How long in minutes and seconds will the standing ovation be at the end of Theresa May’s main speech at the Conservative Party conference in October?” This is the subject of the latest PB competition.

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Beverley_C

First like Corbyn....

... and off to Tescos. Enjoy yourselves!

Big_G_NorthWales

Second like Corbyn

TheScreamingEagles

MY ENTRY 0 Minutes 42 Seconds.

Stark_Dawning

MY ENTRY 3 Minutes 59 Seconds

Nigelb

MY ENTRY 0 minutes 30 seconds.

I could be wrong about the Mercedes tyre call - the drying track seems to suit the wearing inters.

williamglenn

Could she beat IDS for the number of standing ovations?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/909401766088896513

Ishmael_Z

MY ENTRY 6 Minutes 59 Seconds

Nigelb

Next couple of laps decide the race.

Stark_Dawning

williamglenn said:

Could she beat IDS for the number of standing ovations?

I think Theresa's minders will be wary of any IDS comparisons. But they'll also not want it to look like a snub. So I'm going for above three minutes (highly appreciative) but not quite four (starting to look gushing).

The_Apocalypse

FPT:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@HYUFD If Tory party members are really thinking like you are, then the Tories really are doomed.

Of course the Tories need to win over voters. The idea that this situation is remotely desirable for the party is hilarious. They did not call a GE to lose their majority and be put into a situation where they have to rely on the DUP to cobble together a knife-edge majority. This situation has meant that they've had to drop much of the agenda in that they wanted to go forward with in government and instead have to cede ground to Labour. Parties want to get into government so that they can implement their agenda - right now the Tories are a party in government but not in power.

And while Corbyn needs to win over voters, he's in much better situation to do so than the Tories are. The Conservatives at this stage have very little ace cards over Corbyn and that's situation looks set to get worse.

Actually Corbyn doing better than expected last time may well have given the Tories one more term in power.

As Corbyn sympathisers like you are now going for the 'one more heave' strategy you are making no effort to appeal to the 42% who voted Tory just consolidating the 40% you got and the current polls reflect that. If the Tories had got a majority last time and Labour replaced Corbyn with a more electable and moderate leader the Tories would probably be in a more precarious position

LOL I'm not a Corbyn sympathiser. I've been pretty critical of him on here for the most part. I'm still not a fan.

Your first point runs on the line that people voted Labour only because they thought the party weren't going to win. Given the degree of support for Corbyn's manifesto and the rise in his personal ratings, this is doubtful.

I'm not going one for one heave strategy. It's Momentum and Corbyn that are doing that. And it's not true they are making no effort to appeal to Tories - Momentum/Labour activists are already campaigning in Tory areas now trying to build up support. They were recently in Grant Shapps' constituency.

This idea that a Blair style Labour leader would have done better than Corbyn at this stage is foolhardy. There is deep dissatisfaction with the current economic status quo, a Blairite centrist who supports that status quo isn't going to gain as much support as someone who challenges it. That is why Corbyn did so well among under 45s.

The polls also told us a few months before the GE that May was going to win a big/significant majority. Opinium and many other polls with the exception of Survation and YouGov also told us the Tories were on course to win a majority and look how that turned out.

williamglenn

Nigelb said:

Next couple of laps decide the race.

A standing ovation, possibly, but I can't see May doing a victory lap of the hall.

Nigelb

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Next couple of laps decide the race.

A standing ovation, possibly, but I can't see May doing a victory lap of the hall.

Unless the audience all hold sheaves of wheat ?

AlastairMeeks

6 minutes 41 seconds.

foxinsoxuk

My Entry: 1 minute 4 seconds.

another_richard

84 seconds.

Nigelb

Singapore GP looks to be game over.

Benpointer

MY ENTRY 0 minutes 0 seconds (no standing ovation)

YellowSubmarine

She's in real trouble so it'll be long but they won't want " longer than IDS " headlines.

rkrkrk

MY ENTRY: 9 minutes and 21 seconds.

Boris to be the first to sit down...

HYUFD

The_Apocalypse said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@HYUFD If Tory party members are really thinking like you are, then the Tories really are doomed.

Of course the Tories need to win rse.

Actually Corbyn doing better than expected last time may well have n

LOL I'm not a Corbyn sympathiser. I've been pretty critical of him on here for the most part. I'm still not a fan.

Your first point runs on the line that people voted Labour only because they thought the party weren't going to win. Given the degree of support for Corbyn's manifesto and the rise in his personal ratings, this is doubtful.

I'm not going one for one heave strategy. It's Momentum and Corbyn that are doing that. And it's not true they are making no effort to appeal to Tories - Momentum/Labour activists are already campaigning in Tory areas now trying to build up support. They were recently in Grant Shapps' constituency.

This idea that a Blair style Labour leader would have done better than Corbyn at this stage is foolhardy. There is deep dissatisfaction with the current economic status quo, a Blairite centrist who supports that status quo isn't going to gain as much support as someone who challenges it. That is why Corbyn did so well among under 45s.

The polls also told us a few months before the GE that May was going to win a big/significant majority. Opinium and many other polls with the exception of Survation and YouGov also told us the Tories were on course to win a majority and look how that turned out.

You are anti Tory which is Corbyn sympathiser enough. Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories.

Momentum had plenty of activists in Tory marginals last time but the Tories still won most of them because they made no effort to appeal to Tories in policy terms. Hence the Tories won almost 60 more seats than Labour.

A Blair rehash is not needed just a leader who does not want to turn the UK into Venezuela. The Tories won 42% in June, their highest voteshare since 1987 in a general election for a reason even if Corbyn united the left behind him

Yougov also had it tied last week and Survation has a Labour score similar to other pollsters just a slightly higher UKIP score at the expense of the Tories. All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017

HYUFD

MY ENTRY 6 minutes 30 seconds

Nigelb

Nigelb said:

Singapore GP looks to be game over.

I should shut up - the safety car gives Ricciardo a chance....

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Singapore GP looks to be game over.

Not quite over yet!

Under 14.5 finishers bet pays out, this is a very good day!

Ishmael_Z

"Young CCO press officers had been positioned around the hall to co-ordinate the 17 standing ovations for Mr Duncan Smith as he launched into an attack on the plotters - "get on board or get out of the way" - and the most vitriolic personal attack he had ever made against the Prime Minister, and his "double-dealing, deceitful, incompetent, shallow, inefficient, ineffective, corrupt, mendacious, fraudulent, shameful, lying" Government."

I think that has aged rather well.

rural_voter

MY ENTRY 4 min 30 sec.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Singapore GP looks to be game over.

Not quite over yet!

Under 14.5 finishers bet pays out, this is a very good day!

Yes, you seem to have played a blinder.

The_Apocalypse

@HYUFD

Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.

'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.

The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.

Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.

TheScreamingEagles

Edit - Tweet deleted

foxinsoxuk

Benpointer said:

MY ENTRY 0 minutes 0 seconds (no standing ovation)

Good call!

Though she would get a standing ovation if she announced "I resign!"

foxinsoxuk

The_Apocalypse said:

@HYUFD

Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.

'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.

The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.

Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.

I think Corbyn is a small c conservative.

I agree though, things are only going to get worse for the Tories. I think Labour's continuous campaigning in marginals is a good strategy. It will be remembered on GE day, and that is within 18 months, I reckon.

rottenborough

MY ENTRY 8 Minutes 30 Seconds.

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/909412271893475328

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/909412271893475328

I think Boris is taking a leaf out of the Trump playbook. The more shameless, expansive and blatant the fibs, and the more it infuriates the right-thinking mainstream, the more grass roots love it. Boris will ride this horse all the way to the Tory leadership.

rottenborough

I presume this contest is null and void if she is gone before conference

Benpointer

foxinsoxuk said:

Benpointer said:

MY ENTRY 0 minutes 0 seconds (no standing ovation)

Good call!

Though she would get a standing ovation if she announced "I resign!"

Agreed, that's the flaw in my thinking. I'll win if she doesn't turn up for some reason though!

Recidivist

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/909412271893475328

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/909412271893475328

I think Boris is taking a leaf out of the Trump playbook. The more shameless, expansive and blatant the fibs, and the more it infuriates the right-thinking mainstream, the more grass roots love it. Boris will ride this horse all the way to the Tory leadership.

Spot on.

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Are people really worried about £350 MILLION.

Cameron lied over a thousand times as much:

' David Cameron has received a reprimand from the official statistics watchdog over his claim that the government was "paying down Britain's debts".

The prime minister's assertion in last week's Conservative party political broadcast tiggered a furious complaint by Labour, which described his comments as "deliberately misleading" as the debt was actually rising.

Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Andrew Dilnot, confirmed on Friday that public sector net debt has risen from £811bn in 2010 when the coalition took office to £1.1tn at the end of last year. '

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/feb/01/david-cameron-rebuked-over-debt-claims

Benpointer

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@HYUFD

Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.

'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.

The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.

Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.

I think Corbyn is a small c conservative.

I agree though, things are only going to get worse for the Tories. I think Labour's continuous campaigning in marginals is a good strategy. It will be remembered on GE day, and that is within 18 months, I reckon.

Agreed. Sadly they'll have well and truly screwed up the country royally by then

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Was it a good one while it lasted?

Essexit

MY ENTRY 1 minute 13 seconds

Recidivist

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Was it a good one while it lasted?

Let's assume it was a classic.

HYUFD

The_Apocalypse said:

@HYUFD

Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.

'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.

The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.

Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.

No. Wilson got 44% in 1964 and Attlee 46% even in 1950 on pretty left-wing manifestos and Corbyn got nowhere near that, he even got less than Blair got in 2001. May by contrast with 42.3% got the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher's 42.4% in 1983.

The Tories did not get a majority because of the dementia tax etc which will be dropped next time and as Corbyn neutralised the Brexit issue which he can't do next time. Next time the Tories will be more realistic focusing on holding seats and a few targets not unrealistic targets and getting a majority however small, my seat for example last time targeted Ilford North and Enfield North to send workers which even Ed Miliband won next time Tory workers will be sent to Thurrock and Chingford and indeed local Tories have already attended an action day in the latter

MikeSmithson

If TMay is gone before the conference or does not make a speech then 0 seconds the winner. Same goes if there is no standing ovation

Benpointer

MikeSmithson said:

If TMay is gone before the conference or does not make a speech then 0 seconds the winner. Same goes if there is no standing ovation

I live in hope

rottenborough

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/909412271893475328

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/909412271893475328

I think Boris is taking a leaf out of the Trump playbook. The more shameless, expansive and blatant the fibs, and the more it infuriates the right-thinking mainstream, the more grass roots love it. Boris will ride this horse all the way to the Tory leadership.

Rentoul not so sure. She is Amber Rudd in this and other tweets:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/909404591560773633

Pong

Dunno.

MY ENTRY 1 Minutes 21 Seconds

Who knows, though.

Pay close attention to the MP's who keep on clapping the longest. It'll be the most enthusiastic clappers who dispatch her.

williamglenn

Boris's spokesman is now trying to throw Norgrove under a bus.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411902178168832
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411976920616961

YellowSubmarine

There is nothing more depressing than clever people like @Casino_Royale pretending to be thick to make a party political point. The links/overlaps/commonalities between the current Australian Gay Marriage consultation and Brexit are these.#1 A centre right PM wanted to go down the referendum route to settle an identity issue that was splitting his party and he had no majority for. #2 When parliament voted down the referendum legislation many in the debate explicitly referenced our Brexit referendum as a model to avoid both in terms of delegating parliamentary functions to a referendum. They also cited culture war fears in the light of our vote and the effect that could have on LGBT communities. #3 When the referendum legislation failed the government proceeded anyway with a publically funded all postal non bind consultation. But one asking a binary question with only a Yes/No answer properly. #4 Even that was delayed by legal challenges over whether the cost of the consultation could be authorised under dusting legislation in the absence of dedicated referendum legislation which parliament rejected.

There seem to be clear echos of our Brexit debate from Cameron's referendum pledge through to the Miller case.

That all this is taking place in an anglophone commonwealth democracy a year after our own referendum should be perfectly reasonable grounds to reference it in a debate. More so when it was the third media link in a series of three the first two being the Catalonian and Kurdish independence votes which are happening in the next fortnight. Two legally dubious votes which are throwing up so many similar issues to what the UK has been through twice now with #indyref and #euref.

But apparently gently offering a choice of or international contexts for our own mudslinging makes me a " fanatic ".

NickPalmer

HYUFD said:

All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017

Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?

Nigelb

YellowSubmarine said:

There is nothing more depressing than clever people like @Casino_Royale pretending to be thick to make a party political point. The links/overlaps/commonalities between the current Australian Gay Marriage consultation and Brexit are these.#1 A centre right PM wanted to go down the referendum route to settle an identity issue that was splitting his party and he had no majority for. #2 When parliament voted down the referendum legislation many in the debate explicitly referenced our Brexit referendum as a model to avoid both in terms of delegating parliamentary functions to a referendum. They also cited culture war fears in the light of our vote and the effect that could have on LGBT communities. #3 When the referendum legislation failed the government proceeded anyway with a publically funded all postal non bind consultation. But one asking a binary question with only a Yes/No answer properly. #4 Even that was delayed by legal challenges over whether the cost of the consultation could be authorised under dusting legislation in the absence of dedicated referendum legislation which parliament rejected.

There seem to be clear echos of our Brexit debate from Cameron's referendum pledge through to the Miller case.

That all this is taking place in an anglophone commonwealth democracy a year after our own referendum should be perfectly reasonable grounds to reference it in a debate. More so when it was the third media link in a series of three the first two being the Catalonian and Kurdish independence votes which are happening in the next fortnight. Two legally dubious votes which are throwing up so many similar issues to what the UK has been through twice now with #indyref and #euref.

But apparently gently offering a choice of or international contexts for our own mudslinging makes me a " fanatic ".

Sometimes best not to let a bit of trolling worry you.

Ishmael_Z

williamglenn said:

Boris's spokesman is now trying to throw Norgrove under a bus.
htps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411902178168832
htps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411976920616961

That is absolutely not compatible with Norgrove's letter. Dunno if the letter has been officially withdrawn or something though.

Nigelb

This is a most interesting debate which throws rather a lot of shade on the black and white SeanT type approach to islam:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/the-muslim-feminist-group-scrambling-frances-left-right-divides/539856/

Yorkcity

Margaret Thatcher got an 11 minute standing ovation in 1987 after her third election victory.So as I have read on here so many times that May won even without a majority. So MY ENTRY 3 minutes 59 seconds for one election victory, I think that would be fair.

OldKingCole

Pong said:

Dunno.

MY ENTRY 1 Minutes 21 Seconds

Who knows, though.

Pay close attention to the MP's who keep on clapping the longest. It'll be the most enthusiastic clappers who dispatch her.

Does everyone have to stand up? I know that’s a problem at a Tory conference, with people having to be helped to their feet.

YellowSubmarine

Meanwhile a Scotsman poll shows that simultaneously support for Independence is up to 46% but that Scots voters will remove the majority needed to call such a vote from the Scottish Parliament in 2021. Now Scots independence is not today's thread theme but you'd think a betting site would at least entertain the possibility of the above statistics leading to the SNP cutting and running on #indyref2 before the next Holyrood election as their windows slams shut.

But this too is verboten to the PB Brexiteers. Apparently only 46% support for Independence is " pathetic " .

foxinsoxuk

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017

Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?

I am looking at going to the Russia World cup.

I recall you had a good Moscow hotel, could you remind me of it? Anything in St Petersberg too? going with Fox jr.

TheScreamingEagles

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017

Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?

Some have, some haven't, some have made minor tweaks, some are still reviewing their processes and put a hold on their political polling until they've reviewed everything.

Put it this way, the most accurate pollster, Survation haven't changed their methodology, and their most recent poll gives Labour a 5% lead.

rottenborough

deleted

rottenborough

Threat level reduced.

HYUFD

YellowSubmarine said:

Meanwhile a Scotsman poll shows that simultaneously support for Independence is up to 46% but that Scots voters will remove the majority needed to call such a vote from the Scottish Parliament in 2021. Now Scots independence is not today's thread theme but you'd think a betting site would at least entertain the possibility of the above statistics leading to the SNP cutting and running on #indyref2 before the next Holyrood election as their windows slams shut.

But this too is verboten to the PB Brexiteers. Apparently only 46% support for Independence is " pathetic " .

Of course it is, just 1% more than 2014 in the best poll for Yes is.

The Spanish of course have sent in the military and police to stop a referendum on independence in Catalonia so Scottish nationalists should be grateful for the referendum they have had

Benpointer

OldKingCole said:

Pong said:

Dunno.

MY ENTRY 1 Minutes 21 Seconds

Who knows, though.

Pay close attention to the MP's who keep on clapping the longest. It'll be the most enthusiastic clappers who dispatch her.

Does everyone have to stand up? I know that’s a problem at a Tory conference, with people having to be helped to their feet.

Yes absolutely! One person sat down, even in a wheelchair, and it's not a SO.

Wait... Maybe I am taking this all too seriously?

TheScreamingEagles

Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).

williamglenn

rottenborough said:

Threat level reduced.

The coup has failed?

Freggles

MY ENTRY 2 minutes 48 seconds

YellowSubmarine

But I digress. As the PB Brexit mob has moved on to it's new toy. Boris is going to replace May by Spring 2019 having engineered a chaotic but jingoistic Brexit, will call another early election and this time win the landslide everyone ( including me ) predicted May would. This is so obvious anyone challenging the narrative is a " Corbyn sympathiser ".

PB Brexiteers decent into Millenarian Cult status is certainly entertaining. No matter how many times the Saviour/Aliens/End of the World doesn't turn up they just shove the date into the future and ramp up the belief.

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Threat level reduced.

The coup has failed?

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: interesting result. Setting about the post-race analysis now.

MY ENTRY 3 minutes 12 seconds.

stevef

IDS got one of the longest standing ovations -just before he was overthrown.

Corbyn of course will receive a delirious reception at the Labour conference. A whole week as the faithful celebrate Corbyn's triumphant defeat, a public demonstration of hubris which will put Neil Kinnock's Sheffield rally in the shade.

Oh dear!

foxinsoxuk

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Threat level reduced.

The coup has failed?

A PM who tolerates such a split with her Foreign Secretary, on the issue facing the country is in a very weak position indeed.

Perhaps an interesting bet would be on the duration of the ovation for Boris vs Theresa...

DecrepitJohnL

Thanks to the Formula One tipsters on the previous thread btw. Hamilton at 20s; Verstappen DNF at 4s; fewer than 14 finishers.

another_richard

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Was it a good one while it lasted?

It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.

That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.

TheScreamingEagles

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Was it a good one while it lasted?

It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.

That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.

The letter is genuine.

https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/909394200902475777

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.

I do like this tweet from Ferrari. Nice to know the former Iraqi Information Minister is working for Ferrari.

https://twitter.com/ScuderiaFerrari/status/909388428630003716

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).

Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.

DecrepitJohnL

foxinsoxuk said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Threat level reduced.

The coup has failed?

A PM who tolerates such a split with her Foreign Secretary, on the issue facing the country is in a very weak position indeed.

Perhaps an interesting bet would be on the duration of the ovation for Boris vs Theresa...

Theresa May is in a very weak position and has been since June: each of the big beasts has enough backbench followers to bring her down. That is why I am not rushing to back any potential stars on the backbenches whose path to the cabinet is blocked unless the PM can find someone who fancies a new ermine dressing gown.

On ovations and your second point, I'd imagine the aim will be for the PM to get 30 seconds longer than Boris. Unfortunately OGH is closing entries tomorrow.

HYUFD

YellowSubmarine said:

But I digress. As the PB Brexit mob has moved on to it's new toy. Boris is going to replace May by Spring 2019 having engineered a chaotic but jingoistic Brexit, will call another early election and this time win the landslide everyone ( including me ) predicted May would. This is so obvious anyone challenging the narrative is a " Corbyn sympathiser ".

PB Brexiteers decent into Millenarian Cult status is certainly entertaining. No matter how many times the Saviour/Aliens/End of the World doesn't turn up they just shove the date into the future and ramp up the belief.

Who said anything about a landslide? Even a Boris majority of 1 would be enough

volcanopete

MY ENTRY 0 Minute 20 seconds

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).

Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.

If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Was it a good one while it lasted?

It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.

That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.

The letter is genuine.

https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/909394200902475777

So why delete the tweet ?

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.

I think that was my best F1 betting day ever!

TheScreamingEagles

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Was it a good one while it lasted?

It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.

That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.

The letter is genuine.

https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/909394200902475777

So why delete the tweet ?

You'd have to take it up with Sebastian Payne.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.

I do like this tweet from Ferrari. Nice to know the former Iraqi Information Minister is working for Ferrari.

https://twitter.com/ScuderiaFerrari/status/909388428630003716

I think the stewards might be about to disagree with the Scuderia.

GF2

MY ENTRY 6 minutes 01 seconds

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, wish I'd backed that Hamilton bet. Miffed my 67 didn't come off, but we can't have everything.

I do like this tweet from Ferrari. Nice to know the former Iraqi Information Minister is working for Ferrari.

https://twitter.com/ScuderiaFerrari/status/909388428630003716

Just Ferrari showing their usual class.

Ishmael_Z

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Edit - Tweet deleted

Was it a good one while it lasted?

It was supposedly a tweet from the ONS rebuking Boris.

That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.

The letter is genuine.

https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/909394200902475777

“Once we have settled our accounts, we will take back control of roughly £350 million a week,” Johnson writes in the Telegraph.

“It would be a fine thing, as many of us have pointed out, if a lot of that money went on the NHS, provided we use that cash injection to modernise and make the most of new technology.”

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-repeats-false-350-11181716

That language wriggles round Norgrove's point: we will have "taken back control" of money which we decide to use to give to ag/scientific research to replace eu payments; bojo is only talking about "a lot of money" not all of it.

We do btw need to scrap the convention that headlines are written by sub-editors, it is ridiculous that the only bit of an article which 99% of readers take in, is written by someone other than the author.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.

Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.

Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.

Not sure it's quite as clearcut as that - probably didn't imagine that Raikkonen would get the drop on him as well as Verstappen - but it was pretty stupid given the state of the championship.

For Ferrari to blame Verstappen is both risible and contemptible.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, congrats

If Alonso had won [and that was plausible] it would've been my best ever. Still, happy to be green.

Mr. Eagles, you are a tinker.

NickPalmer

foxinsoxuk said:

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017

Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?

I am looking at going to the Russia World cup.

I recall you had a good Moscow hotel, could you remind me of it? Anything in St Petersberg too? going with Fox jr.

It was the Ibis - in fact my review appears top of the Tripadvisor list, and the other reviews seem to generally agree:

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g298484-d4961665-Reviews-Ibis_Moscow_Centre_Bakhrushina-Moscow_Central_Russia.html

At £40-odd/night it's a snip.

I can't remember where I stayed in StP, sorry!

williamglenn

Norgrove hits back:
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909421854137503745
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909421931421675521

Stark_Dawning

foxinsoxuk said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Threat level reduced.

The coup has failed?

A PM who tolerates such a split with her Foreign Secretary, on the issue facing the country is in a very weak position indeed.

Perhaps an interesting bet would be on the duration of the ovation for Boris vs Theresa...

Boris needs to make the speech of his life. His moment has come. If he presses all the right buttons, while still sounding unimpeachably loyal, then the conference will end with Boris as leader in all but name.

OldKingCole

2 minutes, 45 seconds.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).

Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.

If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.

That's kind of always been a thing, since 2007 anyway.
Still, indy support up, pro EU membership up, Brexitory credibility ever more diaphanous; one must seek succour where one can.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.

Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.

Not sure it's quite as clearcut as that - probably didn't imagine that Raikkonen would get the drop on him as well as Verstappen - but it was pretty stupid given the state of the championship.

For Ferrari to blame Verstappen is both risible and contemptible.

For the tweet alone Ferrari and Vettel to be punished.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, just a lap 1 racing incident, in my book. Shame, I want the title fight to be close. Not sure if I make more if Bottas is 2nd, now I come to think of it. Probably not.

Dangerous driving by Seb, he deserves a 20 place grid penalty for the next three races.

Not sure it's quite as clearcut as that - probably didn't imagine that Raikkonen would get the drop on him as well as Verstappen - but it was pretty stupid given the state of the championship.

For Ferrari to blame Verstappen is both risible and contemptible.

For the tweet alone Ferrari and Vettel to be punished.

If you start penalising trash talking in F1, no one's going to make it to the grid.

williamglenn

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).

Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.

If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.

That's kind of always been a thing, since 2007 anyway.
Still, indy support up, pro EU membership up, Brexitory credibility ever more diaphanous; one must seek succour where one can.

Structurally everything is set up for Labour to be forced onto the fence somewhat on independence. That would be a game changer.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Scottish Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).

Quite close to the Panelbase Holyrood poll last week that the Scotch subsamplers were pooh-poohing (they seem to be in possession of quite a lot of pooh). Holyrood constituency polling has mostly been a reasonable surrogate for WM vi.

If I maybe so bold, looking at the wider Panelbase polling and other Scottish polling, it seems the Scots are still keen on voting for the SNP but less keen on backing Independence.

That's kind of always been a thing, since 2007 anyway.
Still, indy support up, pro EU membership up, Brexitory credibility ever more diaphanous; one must seek succour where one can.

If Brexit continues on its current trajectory I won't be shocked to see polling showing Yes to Independence ahead in the next six months.

Penddu

Entry.... 2 minutes 37 seconds