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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prize Competition: How long a standing ovation will TMay get a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prize Competition: How long a standing ovation will TMay get at her party conference?
After an election that didn’t quite go to plan “How long in minutes and seconds will the standing ovation be at the end of Theresa May’s main speech at the Conservative Party conference in October?” This is the subject of the latest PB competition.
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... and off to Tescos. Enjoy yourselves!
I could be wrong about the Mercedes tyre call - the drying track seems to suit the wearing inters.
Your first point runs on the line that people voted Labour only because they thought the party weren't going to win. Given the degree of support for Corbyn's manifesto and the rise in his personal ratings, this is doubtful.
I'm not going one for one heave strategy. It's Momentum and Corbyn that are doing that. And it's not true they are making no effort to appeal to Tories - Momentum/Labour activists are already campaigning in Tory areas now trying to build up support. They were recently in Grant Shapps' constituency.
This idea that a Blair style Labour leader would have done better than Corbyn at this stage is foolhardy. There is deep dissatisfaction with the current economic status quo, a Blairite centrist who supports that status quo isn't going to gain as much support as someone who challenges it. That is why Corbyn did so well among under 45s.
The polls also told us a few months before the GE that May was going to win a big/significant majority. Opinium and many other polls with the exception of Survation and YouGov also told us the Tories were on course to win a majority and look how that turned out.
Boris to be the first to sit down...
Momentum had plenty of activists in Tory marginals last time but the Tories still won most of them because they made no effort to appeal to Tories in policy terms. Hence the Tories won almost 60 more seats than Labour.
A Blair rehash is not needed just a leader who does not want to turn the UK into Venezuela. The Tories won 42% in June, their highest voteshare since 1987 in a general election for a reason even if Corbyn united the left behind him
Yougov also had it tied last week and Survation has a Labour score similar to other pollsters just a slightly higher UKIP score at the expense of the Tories. All pollsters are now no longer overcompensating for their overestimation of Labour in 2015 as they did in 2017
Under 14.5 finishers bet pays out, this is a very good day!
I think that has aged rather well.
Being anti-Tory makes one a Corbyn sympathiser? LOL, that's a joke.
'Even today Corbyn can only tie the Tories?' Corbyn was supposed to lead Labour to sub 200 seats a few months ago and poll in the low twenties. The fact that someone as to left as he is is polling above 40% in of itself is unbelievable and should alarm Conservatives who thought that Britain was a solid small c Conservative country which would never entertain Corbyn's ideas. We don't live in a politics as usual world anymore where we can look at ties/small leads and assume something positive for the Tories about it. Only months ago the Tories had a double-digit lead over Labour with a leader with very high approval ratings, and in a position where it seemed implausible that they wouldn't win a majority. They managed to mess that one up in a matter of months, and they've got years of a Brexit fall out to deal with.
The Conservatives also lost their first majority in more than twenty years in June. Votes need to be places where it actually matters.
Anyway, I'm off for a late lunch.
Though she would get a standing ovation if she announced "I resign!"
I agree though, things are only going to get worse for the Tories. I think Labour's continuous campaigning in marginals is a good strategy. It will be remembered on GE day, and that is within 18 months, I reckon.
Cameron lied over a thousand times as much:
' David Cameron has received a reprimand from the official statistics watchdog over his claim that the government was "paying down Britain's debts".
The prime minister's assertion in last week's Conservative party political broadcast tiggered a furious complaint by Labour, which described his comments as "deliberately misleading" as the debt was actually rising.
Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Andrew Dilnot, confirmed on Friday that public sector net debt has risen from £811bn in 2010 when the coalition took office to £1.1tn at the end of last year. '
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/feb/01/david-cameron-rebuked-over-debt-claims
Was it a good one while it lasted?
The Tories did not get a majority because of the dementia tax etc which will be dropped next time and as Corbyn neutralised the Brexit issue which he can't do next time. Next time the Tories will be more realistic focusing on holding seats and a few targets not unrealistic targets and getting a majority however small, my seat for example last time targeted Ilford North and Enfield North to send workers which even Ed Miliband won next time Tory workers will be sent to Thurrock and Chingford and indeed local Tories have already attended an action day in the latter
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/909404591560773633
MY ENTRY 1 Minutes 21 Seconds
Who knows, though.
Pay close attention to the MP's who keep on clapping the longest. It'll be the most enthusiastic clappers who dispatch her.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411902178168832
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909411976920616961
There seem to be clear echos of our Brexit debate from Cameron's referendum pledge through to the Miller case.
That all this is taking place in an anglophone commonwealth democracy a year after our own referendum should be perfectly reasonable grounds to reference it in a debate. More so when it was the third media link in a series of three the first two being the Catalonian and Kurdish independence votes which are happening in the next fortnight. Two legally dubious votes which are throwing up so many similar issues to what the UK has been through twice now with #indyref and #euref.
But apparently gently offering a choice of or international contexts for our own mudslinging makes me a " fanatic ".
Sorry to snip out just one sentence, but that's an interesting betting-related point. Have any, some or all posters changed their methodology since June?
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/the-muslim-feminist-group-scrambling-frances-left-right-divides/539856/
But this too is verboten to the PB Brexiteers. Apparently only 46% support for Independence is " pathetic " .
I recall you had a good Moscow hotel, could you remind me of it? Anything in St Petersberg too? going with Fox jr.
Put it this way, the most accurate pollster, Survation haven't changed their methodology, and their most recent poll gives Labour a 5% lead.
The Spanish of course have sent in the military and police to stop a referendum on independence in Catalonia so Scottish nationalists should be grateful for the referendum they have had
Wait... Maybe I am taking this all too seriously?
SNP is at 41% (+4% since June). The Tories are on 27% (-2%), Labour on 24% (-3%), Lib Dems on 6% (-1%) and Greens on 2% (+2%).
PB Brexiteers decent into Millenarian Cult status is certainly entertaining. No matter how many times the Saviour/Aliens/End of the World doesn't turn up they just shove the date into the future and ramp up the belief.
F1: interesting result. Setting about the post-race analysis now.
MY ENTRY 3 minutes 12 seconds.
Corbyn of course will receive a delirious reception at the Labour conference. A whole week as the faithful celebrate Corbyn's triumphant defeat, a public demonstration of hubris which will put Neil Kinnock's Sheffield rally in the shade.
Oh dear!
Perhaps an interesting bet would be on the duration of the ovation for Boris vs Theresa...
That its been deleted suggests that someone is faking tweets - who that is would be worth knowing.
https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/909394200902475777
https://twitter.com/ScuderiaFerrari/status/909388428630003716
On ovations and your second point, I'd imagine the aim will be for the PM to get 30 seconds longer than Boris. Unfortunately OGH is closing entries tomorrow.
“It would be a fine thing, as many of us have pointed out, if a lot of that money went on the NHS, provided we use that cash injection to modernise and make the most of new technology.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-repeats-false-350-11181716
That language wriggles round Norgrove's point: we will have "taken back control" of money which we decide to use to give to ag/scientific research to replace eu payments; bojo is only talking about "a lot of money" not all of it.
We do btw need to scrap the convention that headlines are written by sub-editors, it is ridiculous that the only bit of an article which 99% of readers take in, is written by someone other than the author.
For Ferrari to blame Verstappen is both risible and contemptible.
If Alonso had won [and that was plausible] it would've been my best ever. Still, happy to be green.
Mr. Eagles, you are a tinker.
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g298484-d4961665-Reviews-Ibis_Moscow_Centre_Bakhrushina-Moscow_Central_Russia.html
At £40-odd/night it's a snip.
I can't remember where I stayed in StP, sorry!
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909421854137503745
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/909421931421675521
Still, indy support up, pro EU membership up, Brexitory credibility ever more diaphanous; one must seek succour where one can.