politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris has blown it again
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Ha, was waiting to see how long that comment would take to arrivefoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the NHS...Sandpit said:Ryanair thread on a pilots’ forum: fair to say from the comments there that the issue is they don’t have enough pilots to the point that they’re offering €10k sign on bonuses to anyone with a 737 Captain’s licence. Pilots are leaving faster than they can be trained.
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/599355-ryanair-cancelling-flights.html
I guess the difference is that they’re a profitable private company who should have been able to deal with the problem, except that they treat their staff the same way as they treat their customers.
Obviously the people posting on a forum aren’t going to be representative of everyone, but they’ve already been doing things like “rebasing” pilots (shorthand for forcing them to move their “base” airport, often to another country - which pisses off anyone with a spouse and kids) so have upset most of the guys and girls still working there. Pilots are starting to phone in sick - and “sick” - and now they’re totally screwed.0 -
Good for easyjet and BASandpit said:
Ha, was waiting to see how long that comment would take to arrivefoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the NHS...Sandpit said:Ryanair thread on a pilots’ forum: fair to say from the comments there that the issue is they don’t have enough pilots to the point that they’re offering €10k sign on bonuses to anyone with a 737 Captain’s licence. Pilots are leaving faster than they can be trained.
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/599355-ryanair-cancelling-flights.html
I guess the difference is that they’re a profitable private company who should have been able to deal with the problem, except that they treat their staff the same way as they treat their customers.
Obviously the people posting on a forum aren’t going to be representative of everyone, but they’ve already been doing things like “rebasing” pilots (shorthand for forcing them to move their “base” airport, often to another country - which pisses off anyone with a spouse and kids) so have upset most of the guys and girls still working there. Pilots are starting to phone in sick - and “sick” - and now they’re totally screwed.0 -
And some people in the media have been affected by them too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have flown a lot with BA both in Europe and Worldwide and never had a flight cancelled.brendan16 said:Seems a lot of fuss about Ryanair cancelling barely 2 per cent of their flights. If you book with BA based on experience in recent years you have a good chance that 100 per cent of flights could get cancelled on some days.
The news media are really having a go with interviews with passengers stranded in Europe and saying that only next weeks passengers have been told of their cancelled flights. Kicking 378,000 passengers off their planes over the next six weeks is a true 'Ratner' moment.
The media are also saying that many will never book flights with them again
Chris Harris for example, he was going to Belgium the other day to drive in a car race today.
He presents Top Gear, and has 178k followers on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/harrismonkey/status/9084150814651637760 -
TBF BA saw ALL their flights cancelled for two days a couple months back, unlike the relatively small proportion of Ryanair flights. That was for operational/cost-cutting reasons too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have flown a lot with BA both in Europe and Worldwide and never had a flight cancelled.brendan16 said:Seems a lot of fuss about Ryanair cancelling barely 2 per cent of their flights. If you book with BA based on experience in recent years you have a good chance that 100 per cent of flights could get cancelled on some days.
The news media are really having a go with interviews with passengers stranded in Europe and saying that only next weeks passengers have been told of their cancelled flights. Kicking 378,000 passengers off their planes over the next six weeks is a true 'Ratner' moment.
The media are also saying that many will never book flights with them again0 -
50 a day for six weeks is not a relative small number - 378,000 passengers let downFF43 said:
TBF BA saw ALL their flights cancelled for two days a couple months back, unlike the relatively small proportion of Ryanair flights. That was for operational/cost-cutting reasons too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have flown a lot with BA both in Europe and Worldwide and never had a flight cancelled.brendan16 said:Seems a lot of fuss about Ryanair cancelling barely 2 per cent of their flights. If you book with BA based on experience in recent years you have a good chance that 100 per cent of flights could get cancelled on some days.
The news media are really having a go with interviews with passengers stranded in Europe and saying that only next weeks passengers have been told of their cancelled flights. Kicking 378,000 passengers off their planes over the next six weeks is a true 'Ratner' moment.
The media are also saying that many will never book flights with them again0 -
Yep, another almighty airline cockup, and how we all laughed at BA at the time! This one looks a little more serious. Unlike your data centre crashing, training pilots takes a little longer than a couple of days to sort out. Takes the best part of a decade to produce a Captain from a student pilot.FF43 said:
TBF BA saw ALL their flights cancelled for two days a couple months back, unlike the relatively small proportion of Ryanair flights. That was for operational/cost-cutting reasons too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have flown a lot with BA both in Europe and Worldwide and never had a flight cancelled.brendan16 said:Seems a lot of fuss about Ryanair cancelling barely 2 per cent of their flights. If you book with BA based on experience in recent years you have a good chance that 100 per cent of flights could get cancelled on some days.
The news media are really having a go with interviews with passengers stranded in Europe and saying that only next weeks passengers have been told of their cancelled flights. Kicking 378,000 passengers off their planes over the next six weeks is a true 'Ratner' moment.
The media are also saying that many will never book flights with them again
The only reason the cancellations are for six weeks is that on 1st November their “Winter” timetable kicks in, which sees a number of planes chartered or parked for a few months.0 -
Fair enough. Probably about the same as the number of British Airways passengers let down earlier this year. BA are better at customer service when things go wrong, but if the Ryanair disruption goes on for longer, passengers on flights cunning up will have more time to make alternative arrangements. Ryanair get a lot of stick, some but not all of it deserved. Nevertheless the same cost pressures apply to all airlines.Big_G_NorthWales said:
50 a day for six weeks is not a relative small number - 378,000 passengers let downFF43 said:
TBF BA saw ALL their flights cancelled for two days a couple months back, unlike the relatively small proportion of Ryanair flights. That was for operational/cost-cutting reasons too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have flown a lot with BA both in Europe and Worldwide and never had a flight cancelled.brendan16 said:Seems a lot of fuss about Ryanair cancelling barely 2 per cent of their flights. If you book with BA based on experience in recent years you have a good chance that 100 per cent of flights could get cancelled on some days.
The news media are really having a go with interviews with passengers stranded in Europe and saying that only next weeks passengers have been told of their cancelled flights. Kicking 378,000 passengers off their planes over the next six weeks is a true 'Ratner' moment.
The media are also saying that many will never book flights with them again0 -
To be fair my recent flights on BA have been very poor on service even in premium classFF43 said:
Fair enough. Probably about the same as the number of British Airways passengers let down earlier this year. BA are better at customer service when things go wrong, but if the Ryanair disruption goes on for longer, passengers on flights cunning up will have more time to make alternative arrangements. Ryanair get a lot of stick, some but not all of it deserved. Nevertheless the same cost pressures apply to all airlines.Big_G_NorthWales said:
50 a day for six weeks is not a relative small number - 378,000 passengers let downFF43 said:
TBF BA saw ALL their flights cancelled for two days a couple months back, unlike the relatively small proportion of Ryanair flights. That was for operational/cost-cutting reasons too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have flown a lot with BA both in Europe and Worldwide and never had a flight cancelled.brendan16 said:Seems a lot of fuss about Ryanair cancelling barely 2 per cent of their flights. If you book with BA based on experience in recent years you have a good chance that 100 per cent of flights could get cancelled on some days.
The news media are really having a go with interviews with passengers stranded in Europe and saying that only next weeks passengers have been told of their cancelled flights. Kicking 378,000 passengers off their planes over the next six weeks is a true 'Ratner' moment.
The media are also saying that many will never book flights with them again0 -
Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.0
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He's talking about ultramontanism. That's a tendency that has bedevilled UK relations with Europe for the last 500 yearsAlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
It's perfectly possible to strongly believe that the UK should remain part of the EU without a loyalty to the EU overwhelming loyalty to the UK0 -
Just something to think about, considering the likelihood that the relevant UK government departments use Equifax to check up:
http://www.salon.com/2017/09/15/how-badly-did-equifax-breach-damage-the-social-security-system/0 -
500 years ago there was no more a UK than there was an EU.Charles said:He's talking about ultramontanism. That's a tendency that has bedevilled UK relations with Europe for the last 500 years
Perhaps the casual conflation of England with the UK is because of your conflicted loyalty to a supranational union?0 -
No it's because I chose to simplify my post to make my pointwilliamglenn said:
500 years ago there was no more a UK than there was an EU.Charles said:He's talking about ultramontanism. That's a tendency that has bedevilled UK relations with Europe for the last 500 years
Perhaps the casual conflation of England with the UK is because of your conflicted loyalty to a supranational union?
If you'd wanted to be really pedantic you'd have pointed out ultramontanism was France vs Italy and to do with clerical authority. But you'd have spectacularly missed the point0 -
It is an illegal referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the EU are making threatening voices - why do they fear the ballot boxCopperSulphate said:
Arresting people taking part in a voluntary vote is never a good look.Sandpit said:
Every policeman is Spain is armed, no?geoffw said:
Catalonia referendum: Spain sends ARMED POLICE to hunt for ballot boxes to BLOCK voteBig_G_NorthWales said:
Why has it been stoppedpartypoliticalorphan said:Betfair have voided their Catalan Independence Referendum market.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/854987/Catalonia-referendum-2017-Spain-Catalan-independence-vote-police-raid-search0 -
It's true. All NHS Trusts are paying more for staff than the official rates in difficult to recruit specialties.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the NHS...Sandpit said:Ryanair thread on a pilots’ forum: fair to say from the comments there that the issue is they don’t have enough pilots to the point that they’re offering €10k sign on bonuses to anyone with a 737 Captain’s licence. Pilots are leaving faster than they can be trained.
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/599355-ryanair-cancelling-flights.html0 -
I wonder if Theresa is hastily rewriting her Florence speech after Boris's intervention. She won't want to concede any of the hard-Brexit ground to him, and he's now seriously upped the ante. 'Citizens of nowhere', or some variant thereof, might get a reboot.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
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Sadly it might.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if Theresa is hastily rewriting her Florence speech after Boris's intervention. She won't want to concede any of the hard-Brexit ground to him, and he's now seriously upped the ante. 'Citizens of nowhere', or some variant thereof, might get a reboot.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
The Conservatives seem determined to alienate anyone who sees themselves as living with an awareness of the wider world.0 -
RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
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Yet within our society today, we see division and unfairness all around. Between a more prosperous older generation and a struggling younger generation. Between the wealth of London and the rest of the country.AlastairMeeks said:
Sadly it might.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if Theresa is hastily rewriting her Florence speech after Boris's intervention. She won't want to concede any of the hard-Brexit ground to him, and he's now seriously upped the ante. 'Citizens of nowhere', or some variant thereof, might get a reboot.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
The Conservatives seem determined to alienate anyone who sees themselves as living with an awareness of the wider world.
But perhaps most of all, between the rich, the successful and the powerful - and their fellow citizens.
Now don’t get me wrong. We applaud success. We want people to get on.
But we also value something else: the spirit of citizenship.
That spirit that means you respect the bonds and obligations that make our society work. That means a commitment to the men and women who live around you, who work for you, who buy the goods and services you sell.
That spirit that means recognising the social contract that says you train up local young people before you take on cheap labour from overseas.
That spirit that means you do as others do, and pay your fair share of tax.
But today, too many people in positions of power behave as though they have more in common with international elites than with the people down the road, the people they employ, the people they pass in the street.
But if you believe you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere. You don’t understand what the very word ‘citizenship’ means.
So if you’re a boss who earns a fortune but doesn’t look after your staff…
An international company that treats tax laws as an optional extra…
A household name that refuses to work with the authorities even to fight terrorism…
A director who takes out massive dividends while knowing that the company pension is about to go bust…
I’m putting you on warning. This can’t go on anymore.0 -
Nor could you be Scottish (Welsh, Irish, Cornish etc) and British. I guarantee that if you deny the possibility of being Scottish AND British the next Indyref will be carried by 80%.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
Boris Johnson is incoherent as the piece below exposes brilliantly. In particular why dust off the £350 million claim? He knows it's nonsense. That's why he went to all that effort to deny he said it. Is he trying to pull the Conservative edifice down so he can emerge or of the rubble? Or is he laying out his stall for when Theresa May eventually goes, in which case he can't dodge the realities and compromises the government has to face?
https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/0 -
The Census forces that very choice.FF43 said:
Nor could you be Scottish (Welsh, Irish, Cornish etc) and British. I guarantee that if you deny the possibility of being Scottish AND British the next Indyref will be carried by 80%.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
Boris Johnson is incoherent as the piece below exposes brilliantly. In particular why dust off the £350 million claim? He knows it's nonsense. That's why he went to all that effort to deny he said it. Is he trying to pull the Conservative edifice down so he can emerge or of the rubble? Or is he laying out his stall for when Theresa May eventually goes, in which case he can't dodge the realities and compromises the government has to face?
https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/0 -
One of the many binds the government is in is that any possible intellectual case for Brexit must be either an attack on the EU or an appeal to British exceptionalism. Neither is a good place to negotiate from, but admitting that it's a damage limitation exercise wouldn't make for a very inspirational speech.AlastairMeeks said:
Sadly it might.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if Theresa is hastily rewriting her Florence speech after Boris's intervention. She won't want to concede any of the hard-Brexit ground to him, and he's now seriously upped the ante. 'Citizens of nowhere', or some variant thereof, might get a reboot.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
The Conservatives seem determined to alienate anyone who sees themselves as living with an awareness of the wider world.0 -
Looks like the Republicans have the numbers for one last attempt to repeal and replace Obamamcare before the 30th September deadline.
McCain is basically on board with it.0 -
He may inadvertently have offered us the route to an exit from Brexit. By sucking all the poison from the debate into his own body, suddenly what was ethereal becomes personal, and Boris presents an increasingly soft target. He came to praise Brexit, but he may have buried it.FF43 said:Nor could you be Scottish (Welsh, Irish, Cornish etc) and British. I guarantee that if you deny the possibility of being Scottish AND British the next Indyref will be carried by 80%.
Boris Johnson is incoherent as the piece below exposes brilliantly. In particular why dust off the £350 million claim? He knows it's nonsense. That's why he went to all that effort to deny he said it. Is he trying to pull the Conservative edifice down so he can emerge or of the rubble? Or is he laying out his stall for when Theresa May eventually goes, in which case he can't dodge the realities and compromises the government has to face?
https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/0 -
Despite its location, it is a speech for a domestic audience. Nobody else matters when you have a minority and a conference to face.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if Theresa is hastily rewriting her Florence speech after Boris's intervention. She won't want to concede any of the hard-Brexit ground to him, and he's now seriously upped the ante. 'Citizens of nowhere', or some variant thereof, might get a reboot.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
Brexit is going to be shit by its nature, but also also because negotiations are for our press rather than the EU27.0 -
Interesting point, but I don't think it does quite. The nationality question in England lists a number of nationalities: British, English ,Scottish etc. You don't have to choose between them because it's the same tick box. In Scotland you get to choose between Scottish and "Other British". You might feel excluded if you see yourself as just British but it doesn't exclude being Scottish AND British ( you would tick the first box)tlg86 said:
The Census forces that very choice.FF43 said:
Nor could you be Scottish (Welsh, Irish, Cornish etc) and British. I guarantee that if you deny the possibility of being Scottish AND British the next Indyref will be carried by 80%.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
Boris Johnson is incoherent as the piece below exposes brilliantly. In particular why dust off the £350 million claim? He knows it's nonsense. That's why he went to all that effort to deny he said it. Is he trying to pull the Conservative edifice down so he can emerge or of the rubble? Or is he laying out his stall for when Theresa May eventually goes, in which case he can't dodge the realities and compromises the government has to face?
https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/0 -
Isn't the problem the issue of FOM and the fact that appears to be a red line for the EU?nielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.0 -
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.0 -
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.0 -
Full marks to your cause - but it is lostwilliamglenn said:
He may inadvertently have offered us the route to an exit from Brexit. By sucking all the poison from the debate into his own body, suddenly what was ethereal becomes personal, and Boris presents an increasingly soft target. He came to praise Brexit, but he may have buried it.FF43 said:Nor could you be Scottish (Welsh, Irish, Cornish etc) and British. I guarantee that if you deny the possibility of being Scottish AND British the next Indyref will be carried by 80%.
Boris Johnson is incoherent as the piece below exposes brilliantly. In particular why dust off the £350 million claim? He knows it's nonsense. That's why he went to all that effort to deny he said it. Is he trying to pull the Conservative edifice down so he can emerge or of the rubble? Or is he laying out his stall for when Theresa May eventually goes, in which case he can't dodge the realities and compromises the government has to face?
https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/0 -
I would say that the problem is ending FOM on Brexit day has become a red line for us. Even if we agree it is desirable and necessary, surely not at any cost?felix said:
Isn't the problem the issue of FOM and the fact that appears to be a red line for the EU?nielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
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If that is the result so be itfoxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.0 -
This has been true of Brexiteers since long before the vote.nielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
They have no plan, no clue, no solution. No problem to which Brexit is a plausible answer.
Or not leave, which solves all of the problems created by Brexit, with the additional advantage of being better terms than any of the transitional alternatives.nielh said:most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period.
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They have spent the summer arguing about where the red lines should be drawn in any transitional period, and can't decide on what they want to do. If they can't decide what they want, how can they negotiate any deal?foxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
0 -
Yes. I agree with that - he hasn't moved on at all from the campaign. It's as if he's been asleep for the past year.nielh said:
I would say that the problem is ending FOM on Brexit day has become a red line for us. Even if we agree it is desirable and necessary, surely not at any cost?felix said:
Isn't the problem the issue of FOM and the fact that appears to be a red line for the EU?nielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
This, from John Lanchester's excellent "brexit blues" essay, July 2016;
"Leave’s arguments were based on lies. The first of these was that Britain ‘sends’ £350 million a week to the EU. This is a straightforward, knowing falsehood, and the fact that so many prominent Brexiters started rowing backwards on it the day after the vote is a sign that they knew it all along. The campaign’s second big lie was that the UK would be able to have access to the single market without accepting the free movement of people from the EU. No country has this arrangement, and there is no reason to think it is possible."
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/john-lanchester/brexit-blues
There's nothing new in Boris's manifesto, just a restatement of an impossible, absurd position.
"Together, we shall smash through the iceberg!"0 -
A few of them suggested that the problem it would solve is that we spend too much time talking about Europe... How's that working out?Scott_P said:They have no plan, no clue, no solution. No problem to which Brexit is a plausible answer.
0 -
£163 million a week, assuming £8.5 billion net in 2015Pong said:
Yes. I agree with that - he hasn't moved on at all from the campaign. It's as if he's been asleep for the past year.nielh said:
I would say that the problem is ending FOM on Brexit day has become a red line for us. Even if we agree it is desirable and necessary, surely not at any cost?felix said:
Isn't the problem the issue of FOM and the fact that appears to be a red line for the EU?nielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
This, from John Lanchester's excellent "brexit blues" essay, July 2016;
"Leave’s arguments were based on lies. The first of these was that Britain ‘sends’ £350 million a week to the EU. This is a straightforward, knowing falsehood, and the fact that so many prominent Brexiters started rowing backwards on it the day after the vote is a sign that they knew it all along. The campaign’s second big lie was that the UK would be able to have access to the single market without accepting the free movement of people from the EU. No country has this arrangement, and there is no reason to think it is possible."
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/john-lanchester/brexit-blues
There's nothing new in Boris's manifesto, just a restatement of an impossible, absurd position.
"Together, we shall smash through the iceberg!"0 -
Have you decided whether 5.1% HPI is good or bad yet ?Scott_P said:
This has been true of Brexiteers since long before the vote.nielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
They have no plan, no clue, no solution. No problem to which Brexit is a plausible answer.
Or not leave, which solves all of the problems created by Brexit, with the additional advantage of being better terms than any of the transitional alternatives.nielh said:most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period.
I can understand your unwillingness to talk about it.
After all Osborne is an advocate of rising house prices so you wouldn't want to oppose him.
On the other hand supporting high house price inflation makes frothing about much lower general inflation look ridiculous. Not to mention rising house prices transfer wealth from the young to the old and that's not a popular thing to be in favour of at present.0 -
What a surprise.
https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/9091482832511016960 -
They cannot, which is why I have said for over a year that WTO Brexit is the most likely outcome. It is rather worrying that HMRC reckons 5 years and £5 billion are required to prepare. We have 18 months and haven't even started.nielh said:
They have spent the summer arguing about where the red lines should be drawn in any transitional period, and can't decide on what they want to do. If they can't decide what they want, how can they negotiate any deal?foxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.0 -
The cost of pulling up the drawbridge is going to be far, far greater than £163m/week - or £350m for that matter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
£163 million a week, assuming £8.5 billion net in 20150 -
Yep, I agree that this looks like the most likely option.foxinsoxuk said:
They cannot, which is why I have said for over a year that WTO Brexit is the most likely outcome. It is rather worrying that HMRC reckons 5 years and £5 billion are required to prepare. We have 18 months and haven't even started.nielh said:
They have spent the summer arguing about where the red lines should be drawn in any transitional period, and can't decide on what they want to do. If they can't decide what they want, how can they negotiate any deal?foxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
Lots of jobs will be lost. The prices will go up in the shops, significantly, because it is going to mess up supply chains. Hard Border with Ireland. Anyone think that this is a good idea? It all sounds like a bad idea to me.0 -
I'm starting to shift towards the scenario where we have a Brexit-in-name-only (i.e. transition where the only change is no political representation), followed by a break up of the UK, followed by re-accession.foxinsoxuk said:They cannot, which is why I have said for over a year that WTO Brexit is the most likely outcome. It is rather worrying that HMRC reckons 5 years and £5 billion are required to prepare. We have 18 months and haven't even started.
0 -
True. When the election result came out I thought it was a fluke and they would be back on form when the shock had sunk in. But they seem even more introspective and out of touch than they were before. It isn't as if there isn't a market for what they normally offer. But they sound more like a cult than a mainstream party at the moment.AlastairMeeks said:
Sadly it might.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if Theresa is hastily rewriting her Florence speech after Boris's intervention. She won't want to concede any of the hard-Brexit ground to him, and he's now seriously upped the ante. 'Citizens of nowhere', or some variant thereof, might get a reboot.AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, the sheer effrontery of a man who had dual nationality until earlier this year complaining about other people having split allegiances (quite apart from the sheer nastiness and unBritishness of denying people multiple identities) is quite breathtaking.
The Conservatives seem determined to alienate anyone who sees themselves as living with an awareness of the wider world.0 -
Remainer's love in on here tonight0
-
And my 8,000 postBig_G_NorthWales said:Remainer's love in on here tonight
0 -
good article, thanks.Pong said:
Yes. I agree with that - he hasn't moved on at all from the campaign. It's as if he's been asleep for the past year.nielh said:
I would say that the problem is ending FOM on Brexit day has become a red line for us. Even if we agree it is desirable and necessary, surely not at any cost?felix said:
Isn't the problem the issue of FOM and the fact that appears to be a red line for the EU?nielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue. it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
This, from John Lanchester's excellent "brexit blues" essay, July 2016;
"Leave’s arguments were based on lies. The first of these was that Britain ‘sends’ £350 million a week to the EU. This is a straightforward, knowing falsehood, and the fact that so many prominent Brexiters started rowing backwards on it the day after the vote is a sign that they knew it all along. The campaign’s second big lie was that the UK would be able to have access to the single market without accepting the free movement of people from the EU. No country has this arrangement, and there is no reason to think it is possible."
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/john-lanchester/brexit-blues
There's nothing new in Boris's manifesto, just a restatement of an impossible, absurd position.
"Together, we shall smash through the iceberg!"
It is interesting the way that everyone assumed last year that we will get a soft Brexit, we would get some sort of EU in all but name type arrangement. Fascinating that we have arrived at the current position, which doesn't even represent a majority view.
0 -
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html0 -
I'm beginning to think Boris was on the wind up with his article. With reference to the £350 million and VAT on tampons, he'd clearly set himself on devising the most fatuous pro-Leave piece imaginable and seeing how it flew. But why? Was it some kind of spoiler for Theresa's Florence speech - reducing the whole debate and process to low farce? If so, he must be very cross with Theresa.0
-
It's back to the 90s with Tory splits on Europe as the main story.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9091525500537118720 -
As the parent of two children about to embark on adulthood that attitude, which is also indicative of the current government, fills me with dread for their futures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is the result so be itfoxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
Frightening!0 -
-
I am the Grandfather to four children and I have every confidence in the future post BrexitMexicanpete said:
As the parent of two children about to embark on adulthood that attitude, which is also indicative of the current government, fills me with dread for their futures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is the result so be itfoxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
Frightening!0 -
NEW YORK—Trump administration officials said Saturday the U.S. wouldn’t pull out of the Paris Agreement, offering to re-engage in the international deal to fight climate change, according to the European Union’s top energy official.
The shift from President Donald Trump’s decision in June to renegotiate the landmark accord or craft a new deal came during a meeting of more than 30 ministers led by Canada, China and the European Union in Montreal.
“The U.S. has stated that they will not renegotiate the Paris accord, but they will try to review the terms on which they could be engaged under this agreement,” European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete said.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/trump-administration-wont-withdraw-from-paris-climate-deal-15055939220 -
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.
0 -
I hope you are right, but I fear you are not!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am the Grandfather to four children and I have every confidence in the future post BrexitMexicanpete said:
As the parent of two children about to embark on adulthood that attitude, which is also indicative of the current government, fills me with dread for their futures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is the result so be itfoxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
Frightening!0 -
Because our politicians are so competent.Big_G_NorthWales said:I have every confidence in the future post Brexit
Oh, wait...0 -
The solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU. Interestingly, if you assume that the UK government also sees it this way, then their repeated position that they need to know what the trade arrangement is still makes perfect sense, but it's the NI/GB border they're thinking of, not NI/Ireland.nielh said:
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.0 -
Amazing. But Boris should be okay. He just has to do his sheepish puppy-dog thing, say he's very very sorry and it'll blow over. And he will have established himself as Mr Hard Brexit. Job done.williamglenn said:It's back to the 90s with Tory splits on Europe as the main story.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9091525500537118720 -
Good news BoZo !! Gove is right behind you...
https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/9091578828218572800 -
-
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.
If that is the result so be it
As the parent of two children about to embark on adulthood that attitude, which is also indicative of the current government, fills me with dread for their futures.
Frightening!
I am the Grandfather to four children and I have every confidence in the future post Brexit
I hope you are right, but I fear you are not!
There is an argument for both sides of the debate but A50 has been served and we must leave and on the best terms we can achieve
However if the EU are determined to punish the UK they will have tariffs just the same as ourselves and that is not sustainable, so in the end a trade deal will happen
The biggest problem for the EU is if the electorate perceive them to be the bad guys, aided by some in the UK, as the Country will reject the EU and move on developing new trading relationships, especially in the growth markets of the far east
I have no doubt that our history of a trading nation will flourish once set free from the EU0 -
Too much about this debate is about gut instinct. Boris Johnsons article is yet another example of it. The Wetherspoon news is full of it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am the Grandfather to four children and I have every confidence in the future post BrexitMexicanpete said:
As the parent of two children about to embark on adulthood that attitude, which is also indicative of the current government, fills me with dread for their futures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is the result so be itfoxinsoxuk said:
A transition period is contingent on a deal. No deal means cliff edge rather than a transition. We would legally be a third party on 30th March 2019.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Media reports did say that he had not ruled out a transition period or paying our legitimate chargesnielh said:RE Boris Johnson.
I've been thinking about it all day. He is still effectively re running and recycling the arguments made in the referendum, albeit updating them for the new circumstances.
He offers no insight at all on how we are going to leave the EU without reverting to WTO rules on Brexit day and all the chaos that would then ensue.
He is ruling out the customs union and single market but offers no alternative.
So this is actually an irrellevant intervention, because most people accept that we are leaving the EU, but worry about what happens after we leave. And Boris has no answer. He has no clue. He seems to think we can bluster it out. But that is, objectively, a completely insane position.
I've been following Oliver Norgrove recently. He is right, in that sensible people need to unite to advocate for remaining in the single market.
This website is mad, because people are having the same arguments, day in day out, but actually most people would agree that what we need to do, is revert to either the EEA or EFTA for some sort of transitional period. In line, pretty much, with what the Flexcit people were saying from day one.
Sadly the Brexit vote and the aftermath has poisoned the whole political discourse, and created these impossible and largely unnecessary divisions that prevent any type of progress on the issue.
Frightening!
You have to move on from it and look at the actual detail of the situation. IE if we leave with no deal, what actually happens. What are the risks. How can we prepare ourselves. etc
0 -
Boris Johnson has gone from calling London property an international asset class, to saying we should tax foreign buyers. Lower prices may be on the way just because people adjust their perception of political risk.another_richard said:Have you decided whether 5.1% HPI is good or bad yet ?
0 -
Hmm. I might have been misreading things. The hard Right look to be going in for the kill here.Scott_P said:Good news BoZo !! Gove is right behind you...
https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/9091578828218572800 -
I think what will happen is far simpler.williamglenn said:
The solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU. Interestingly, if you assume that the UK government also sees it this way, then their repeated position that they need to know what the trade arrangement is still makes perfect sense, but it's the NI/GB border they're thinking of, not NI/Ireland.nielh said:
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.
On 30 March 2019, a hard border will theoretically exist in Ireland and Channel, but will not be enforced for the simple pragmatic reason that we cannot enforce it. I do not think Irish or French will be able to either in the short term.
The long term effect of Brexit will be a slow decline to the sick man of Europe rather than a cliff edge.0 -
You do talk rubbishwilliamglenn said:
The solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU. Interestingly, if you assume that the UK government also sees it this way, then their repeated position that they need to know what the trade arrangement is still makes perfect sense, but it's the NI/GB border they're thinking of, not NI/Ireland.nielh said:
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.0 -
We do what we've done for years and years: informal police controls between NI and GB. There's only about five exit points from NI to GB and for years there's been no passport control but nice burly chaps in suits "just looking" as you cross to GB.nielh said:
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.0 -
This is a fairy story.Big_G_NorthWales said:The biggest problem for the EU is if the electorate perceive them to be the bad guys, aided by some in the UK, as the Country will reject the EU and move on developing new trading relationships, especially in the growth markets of the far east
I have no doubt that our history of a trading nation will flourish once set free from the EU
Maybe your Grandkids believe it. Grown ups shouldn't0 -
So you think the EU will simply not police the boundry of the customs union?foxinsoxuk said:
I think what will happen is far simpler.williamglenn said:
The solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU. Interestingly, if you assume that the UK government also sees it this way, then their repeated position that they need to know what the trade arrangement is still makes perfect sense, but it's the NI/GB border they're thinking of, not NI/Ireland.nielh said:
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.
On 30 March 2019, a hard border will theoretically exist in Ireland and Channel, but will not be enforced for the simple pragmatic reason that we cannot enforce it. I do not think Irish or French will be able to either in the short term.
The long term effect of Brexit will be a slow decline to the sick man of Europe rather than a cliff edge.0 -
It doesn't fit your narrative Scott but the idea we remain is the fairy storyScott_P said:
This is a fairy story.Big_G_NorthWales said:The biggest problem for the EU is if the electorate perceive them to be the bad guys, aided by some in the UK, as the Country will reject the EU and move on developing new trading relationships, especially in the growth markets of the far east
I have no doubt that our history of a trading nation will flourish once set free from the EU
Maybe your Grandkids believe it. Grown ups shouldn't0 -
https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/909160751784431618
We're going to sign a treaty with the EU. Which court will that be policed by?
Oh...0 -
We will not, possibly the EU may not. That is up to them, but I think that they lack the capability too.PeterC said:
So you think the EU will simply not police the boundry of the customs union?foxinsoxuk said:
I think what will happen is far simpler.williamglenn said:
The solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU. Interestingly, if you assume that the UK government also sees it this way, then their repeated position that they need to know what the trade arrangement is still makes perfect sense, but it's the NI/GB border they're thinking of, not NI/Ireland.nielh said:
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.
On 30 March 2019, a hard border will theoretically exist in Ireland and Channel, but will not be enforced for the simple pragmatic reason that we cannot enforce it. I do not think Irish or French will be able to either in the short term.
The long term effect of Brexit will be a slow decline to the sick man of Europe rather than a cliff edge.
It will be a defacto tolerance of smuggling rather than de jure during "transition", but may not last long, at least on their side.
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Maybe we were, but there is nothing inevitable about us making a success of it.Scott_P said:
This is a fairy story.Big_G_NorthWales said:The biggest problem for the EU is if the electorate perceive them to be the bad guys, aided by some in the UK, as the Country will reject the EU and move on developing new trading relationships, especially in the growth markets of the far east
I have no doubt that our history of a trading nation will flourish once set free from the EU
Maybe your Grandkids believe it. Grown ups shouldn't
Reverting to a WTO situation strikes me as starting with a major and unnecessary handicap.
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Equally nothing inevitable about it being a failurenielh said:
Maybe we were, but there is nothing inevitable about us making a success of it.Scott_P said:
This is a fairy story.Big_G_NorthWales said:The biggest problem for the EU is if the electorate perceive them to be the bad guys, aided by some in the UK, as the Country will reject the EU and move on developing new trading relationships, especially in the growth markets of the far east
I have no doubt that our history of a trading nation will flourish once set free from the EU
Maybe your Grandkids believe it. Grown ups shouldn't
Reverting to a WTO situation strikes me as starting with a major and unnecessary handicap.0 -
Except we have spent decades, and millions of man hours negotiating treaties to avoid WTO rules, as has every other developed nation.Big_G_NorthWales said:Equally nothing inevitable about it being a failure
They are bad. Much, much worse than the status quo.0 -
Could be a kind of 'suicide by cop' manoeuvre to get her to sack him. He's getting a lot of flak as Foreign Secretary for not being very good at it and doesn't seem to be enjoying it too much. He must know that the government will have to jump one way and either royally annoy the Tories' fruitcake tendency by giving into many of Brussels' demands or risk economic turmoil by not. He's seen the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg use his backbench freedom to build himself up as a grassroots darling by indulging the more fantastical notions of Brexiteers and fancy a bit of it himself. Perhaps his only route left to becoming PM is to be sacked, build himself up as a maverick preacher of Brexit and wait for the government's strategy to founder when it comes into contact with reality and ride in as an apparent white knight who can make the Tories feel good again about a decision that they are turning (perhaps as was always inevitable given the contradictions in what people saw as its justification) into a shambolic disaster.Stark_Dawning said:I'm beginning to think Boris was on the wind up with his article. With reference to the £350 million and VAT on tampons, he'd clearly set himself on devising the most fatuous pro-Leave piece imaginable and seeing how it flew. But why? Was it some kind of spoiler for Theresa's Florence speech - reducing the whole debate and process to low farce? If so, he must be very cross with Theresa.
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I see our Brexiteers are miserable again this evening. In all my political life I've never seen such an unhappy bunch of winners.
Re the front pages: And so it begins. Our pound shop Frank Underwood sets a new gold standard in europhobia and every other Tory MP with leadership ambitions has to rush to meet it. This of course was Cameron's biggest mistake. The mistake that will dominate the first paragraph of his obituary. You can't satisfy a Tory europhobe. What ever you give them they always want more. We've given them Brexit it's self and it's not enough.
This is a carefully crafted attempt to destroy the Florence speech before it's made. At exactly the same time Leo Varadkar is pulling May in the opposite direction with his open threat to veto Stage 2 if things stay as they are for the next month.
We may be about to see a replay of the Maastricht rebellion on Crack without Major's majority.0 -
And on the Autumn Statement Hammond looking a big changes in student fees, interest payments, and looking at value for money and the huge Vice Chancellor salaries0
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And how much will we ' send ' the EU each week as our share of the running costs ?Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/909160751784431618
We're going to sign a treaty with the EU. Which court will that be policed by?
Oh...0 -
The EU mandates a hard external border. But we can't have one in Ireland. So we either break the CTA (war), impose an internal boundary within the uk (war), break NI off the UK (war), persuade ROI to leave too (it wont), or gamble that the EU says "you're right, we don't need a border (*giggles*)PeterC said:
So you think the EU will simply not police the boundry of the customs union?foxinsoxuk said:
I think what will happen is far simpler.williamglenn said:
The solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU. Interestingly, if you assume that the UK government also sees it this way, then their repeated position that they need to know what the trade arrangement is still makes perfect sense, but it's the NI/GB border they're thinking of, not NI/Ireland.nielh said:
I don't see what the solution is.williamglenn said:
I can't see it. One interesting comment in this piece is Leo Varadkar saying they've made a lot of progress on Northern Ireland. There must be more substantive discussions going on than we're aware of, and not about trade or customs borders.nielh said:Hard Border with Ireland.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-set-to-block-next-stage-of-brexit-talks-806207.html
From our perspective, It is possible to have no border with Ireland, but then doesn't that defeat the whole point of taking back control? Anyone can walk straight over the border from Ireland in to the UK.
On 30 March 2019, a hard border will theoretically exist in Ireland and Channel, but will not be enforced for the simple pragmatic reason that we cannot enforce it. I do not think Irish or French will be able to either in the short term.
The long term effect of Brexit will be a slow decline to the sick man of Europe rather than a cliff edge.
Hard Brexit fails on many fronts - our lack of a customs service/staff/resources/computer to cope for one, but Ireland is the biggie. They didn't think it through. Or don't give a shit about Norniron0 -
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They should be paying us for our world class securityYellowSubmarine said:
And how much will we ' send ' the EU each week as our share of the running costs ?Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/909160751784431618
We're going to sign a treaty with the EU. Which court will that be policed by?
Oh...0 -
They didn't think it through applies to all of BrexitRochdalePioneers said:They didn't think it through. Or don't give a shit about Norniron
Don't give a shit about Norniron is also unquestionably true0 -
They should give a shit. Northern Ireland is a beautiful countryScott_P said:
They didn't think it through applies to all of BrexitRochdalePioneers said:They didn't think it through. Or don't give a shit about Norniron
Don't give a shit about Norniron is also unquestionably true0 -
Papers reporting the tube bomber may be a refugee0
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And it will remain so but not remain in the way you hopeRochdalePioneers said:
They should give a shit. Northern Ireland is a beautiful countryScott_P said:
They didn't think it through applies to all of BrexitRochdalePioneers said:They didn't think it through. Or don't give a shit about Norniron
Don't give a shit about Norniron is also unquestionably true0 -
What about all of the northern European ports which accept imports from the UK to the EU? Are customs checks going to be waived here too as they are simply too impractical?Scott_P said:
They didn't think it through applies to all of BrexitRochdalePioneers said:They didn't think it through. Or don't give a shit about Norniron
Don't give a shit about Norniron is also unquestionably true0 -
Is there a unit of measurement smaller than a straw that can be clutched at?williamglenn said:0 -
So to summarise: To move to Stage 2 next month May had to move. She moved and briefed that Florence was about offering full EU payments for a 3 year transition period buried beneath some waffle the Renaissance cloth trade.
That would probably be enough to fudge Stage 2 and keep the talks doing. But then Boris blew up May's approach despite holding a Great Office of State in her cabinet. We know have one month to find a fudge that allows both the Tory right and the EUCO to pretend Stage 2 can proceed.
If we don't Stage 1 is extended and we have to suck it up and look weak or we walk.
The creative genius of the EU is fudge and deals at the 13th hour. It:s possible. But it's a hell of a mess.0 -
Harsh. Accurate. But harsh.Scott_P said:
This is a fairy story.Big_G_NorthWales said:The biggest problem for the EU is if the electorate perceive them to be the bad guys, aided by some in the UK, as the Country will reject the EU and move on developing new trading relationships, especially in the growth markets of the far east
I have no doubt that our history of a trading nation will flourish once set free from the EU
Maybe your Grandkids believe it. Grown ups shouldn't0 -
Or May sacks BorisYellowSubmarine said:Boris blew up May's approach despite holding a Great Office of State in her cabinet. We know have one month to find a fudge that allows both the Tory right and the EUCO to pretend Stage 2 can proceed.
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Oliver Norgrove's twitter links to a great article in New York review of books;nielh said:
good article, thanks.Pong said:
Yes. I agree with that - he hasn't moved on at all from the campaign. It's as if he's been asleep for the past year.nielh said:
I would say that the problem is ending FOM on Brexit day has become a red line for us. Even if we agree it is desirable and necessary, surely not at any cost?felix said:
Isn't the problem the issue of FOM and the fact that appears to be a red line for the EU?
This, from John Lanchester's excellent "brexit blues" essay, July 2016;
"Leave’s arguments were based on lies. The first of these was that Britain ‘sends’ £350 million a week to the EU. This is a straightforward, knowing falsehood, and the fact that so many prominent Brexiters started rowing backwards on it the day after the vote is a sign that they knew it all along. The campaign’s second big lie was that the UK would be able to have access to the single market without accepting the free movement of people from the EU. No country has this arrangement, and there is no reason to think it is possible."
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/john-lanchester/brexit-blues
There's nothing new in Boris's manifesto, just a restatement of an impossible, absurd position.
"Together, we shall smash through the iceberg!"
It is interesting the way that everyone assumed last year that we will get a soft Brexit, we would get some sort of EU in all but name type arrangement. Fascinating that we have arrived at the current position, which doesn't even represent a majority view.
"On the one hand, Brexit is fueled by fantasies of “Empire 2.0,” a reconstructed global trading empire in which the old colonies will be reconnected to the mother country. On the other, it is an insurgency and therefore needs an oppressor to revolt against. Since England doesn’t actually have an oppressor, it was necessary to invent one. Decades of demonization by Rupert Murdoch’s newspapers and by the enormously influential Daily Mail made the European Union a natural fit for the job."
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/09/28/brexits-irish-question/
Brexit is best understood as an english nationalist social movement.0 -
The problem with this is that Boris supports the transition period and paying our legitimate dues but he should have kept his council for nowYellowSubmarine said:So to summarise: To move to Stage 2 next month May had to move. She moved and briefed that Florence was about offering full EU payments for a 3 year transition period buried beneath some waffle the Renaissance cloth trade.
That would probably be enough to fudge Stage 2 and keep the talks doing. But then Boris blew up May's approach despite holding a Great Office of State in her cabinet. We know have one month to find a fudge that allows both the Tory right and the EUCO to pretend Stage 2 can proceed.
If we don't Stage 1 is extended and we have to suck it up and look weak or we walk.
The creative genius of the EU is fudge and deals at the 13th hour. It:s possible. But it's a hell of a mess.0 -
Only the loony tunes in the electorate believe it to be so.Recidivist said:
Harsh. Accurate. But harsh.Scott_P said:
This is a fairy story.Big_G_NorthWales said:The biggest problem for the EU is if the electorate perceive them to be the bad guys, aided by some in the UK, as the Country will reject the EU and move on developing new trading relationships, especially in the growth markets of the far east
I have no doubt that our history of a trading nation will flourish once set free from the EU
Maybe your Grandkids believe it. Grown ups shouldn't0 -
Needless to say if he is your Brexiteer chums will conflate it with the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:Papers reporting the tube bomber may be a refugee
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Yes. That's a possibility. The question since #GE17 has been what's the point of Theresa May ? Boris is curiously the first person to provide a cogent post #GE17 answer to that.Scott_P said:
Or May sacks BorisYellowSubmarine said:Boris blew up May's approach despite holding a Great Office of State in her cabinet. We know have one month to find a fudge that allows both the Tory right and the EUCO to pretend Stage 2 can proceed.
0 -
The leadership of the Conservative Party continues to be a real mess. Indeed, a disaster.
Meanwhile the Lib Dem Conference in Bournemouth has the highest number of attendees.
Is there some kind of correlation?0 -
If he is, and it is not confirmed, it will cause concern amongst the public without any help from your so called BrexiteersChris_A said:
Needless to say if he is your Brexiteer chums will conflate it with the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:Papers reporting the tube bomber may be a refugee
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The party has been taken over by continuity Remain.PClipp said:The leadership of the Conservative Party continues to be a real mess. Indeed, a disaster.
Meanwhile the Lib Dem Conference in Bournemouth has the highest number of attendees.
Is there some kind of correlation?
There needs to be more to a party than that.0
