politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while Yo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while YouGov has the Tories within one point
The last YouGov voting intention poll a month ago had with CON 3% behind so changes all within the margin of error.
Comments
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First
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A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:
Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)
Conservatives: 42% (no change)
Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
Ukip: 3% (no change)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live
16:15
It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,0 -
Vince is very much yesterdays news.Richard_Nabavi said:A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:
Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)
Conservatives: 42% (no change)
Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
Ukip: 3% (no change)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live
16:15
It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,
I don't think he was a good choice for the LibDems.0 -
I agree with that. The Lib Dems need to reposition themselves as the internationlist party. That's where the opportunities are for them rather than try to cling on to their remaining holdouts.philiph said:
Vince is very much yesterdays news.Richard_Nabavi said:A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:
Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)
Conservatives: 42% (no change)
Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
Ukip: 3% (no change)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live
16:15
It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,
I don't think he was a good choice for the LibDems.
The chart above shows there is no big downside to Labour taking a Brexit-sceptic stance.0 -
Where the EU is concerned, I don't see that much has happened yet to bring about changes of mind. Unless, of course, the apparent steadiness is masking a lot of churn - people changing their minds in both directions & still roughly balancing out. That would be interesting, if it were happening, but (without having looked at the back catalogue of charts) the party differentials still seem to be ball-park similar too.
Good afternoon, everybody.0 -
How long until we go back to 25 smiling Theresa's?
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FPT:
Fox News just permanently stopped broadcasting on Sky TV platform - went off air at 4pm.
See link:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/29/sky-to-stop-broadcasting-rightwing-us-channel-fox-news-in-uk0 -
No new polls for what seems like ages - then two in a few minutes!0
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Running those numbers through Baxter's site - Labour 31 short.
Lab-SNP-LD coalition?0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Lacklustre Government, Opposition by the far left, and both polling in the 40s, acting as one another's deterrent in a MAD situation.0 -
First race at Carlisle, winner @ 25/1, FAKE NEWS0
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The only winning move is not to play. HM rule by decree?Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Lacklustre Government, Opposition by the far left, and both polling in the 40s, acting as one another's deterrent in a MAD situation. 0 -
HA! Hiding the rubbish from OFCOM...MikeL said:FPT:
Fox News just permanently stopped broadcasting on Sky TV platform - went off air at 4pm.
See link:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/29/sky-to-stop-broadcasting-rightwing-us-channel-fox-news-in-uk0 -
The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%0 -
The next leader "has to be a woman"? Talk about tokenism...rottenborough said:0 -
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So basically Britain wants the government to leave without a deal?williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
#HardBrexit0 -
'No deal' it should be then.williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%0 -
Country split down the middle - large parts of both big parties' support probably driven by extreme antipathy to the other big party. We are not a happy country. Hard to see how this changes until new leaderships are installed. Tories likely to do that first, but the realistic options are less than mouthwatering, to say the least.0
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She's drifting down on BF. Now joint favourite.Ishmael_Z said:0 -
Except they won't want what that leads to either.GIN1138 said:
So basically Britain wants the government to leave without a deal?williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
#HardBrexit
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The lower the number, the more acceptable it is.GIN1138 said:
So basically Britain wants the government to leave without a deal?williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
#HardBrexit
Who would have thunk it?0 -
The country has nearly always had a split down the middle, in many ways.SouthamObserver said:Country split down the middle - large parts of both big parties' support probably driven by extreme antipathy to the other big party. We are not a happy country. Hard to see how this changes until new leaderships are installed. Tories likely to do that first, but the realistic options are less than mouthwatering, to say the least.
This is true of politics, class, wealth, educational opportunity, housing quality, rural / urban.
Because the figures are about 50 50 it is a mistake to interpret that as 50 fervent yes vs 50 diehard no, or as 50 hard left Marxist Labour fanatics vs 50 ultra right Trump loving Tory boys.
As a Nation we are far more nuanced than that, we are different but not polar opposites.0 -
I suppose it isn't anything new for the country to be completely divided. It was in the 1980s when about half the country broadly supported Thatcher and the other half disliked her to varying degrees.SouthamObserver said:Country split down the middle - large parts of both big parties' support probably driven by extreme antipathy to the other big party. We are not a happy country. Hard to see how this changes until new leaderships are installed. Tories likely to do that first, but the realistic options are less than mouthwatering, to say the least.
As expected, the Labour lead is slowly evaporating as we head out of the summer.0 -
Surely the country is less divided than it was in, say, 2005?0
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So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).
No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?0 -
You cannot be serious.Richard_Nabavi said:Surely the country is less divided than it was in, say, 2005?
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Similarly, why has the economic catastrophe not converted leavers?AlastairMeeks said:So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).
No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?
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Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%0 -
I don't think that polling is very helpful for understanding the public's stance. "Acceptable" and "Not acceptable" cover a multitude of sins. The question is whether "Not acceptable" means "painful" or "bring out the pitchforks, hay and matches".williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
It also begs the question what the money is buying.0 -
So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for SturgeonRichard_Nabavi said:A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:
Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)
Conservatives: 42% (no change)
Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
Ukip: 3% (no change)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live
16:15
It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,0 -
The money figures aren't much use without the other side of the equation (ie what're we members of, what rights and responsibilities do we have).0
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Cricket complete reversal of the odds from about four hours ago.
ENG 10.5 WI 1.6 Draw 3.7 0 -
Also I'm very suspicious of the calibration. I have a sneaky feeling that if they had asked the same question, but offered £5bn, £10bn, £15bn and £20bn, the four bands would have received similar levels of support, because, irrespective of the actual figures quoted, the question is likely to be interpreted as 'a bit, quite a bit, a lot, a hell of a lot'.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that polling is very helpful for understanding the public's stance. "Acceptable" and "Not acceptable" cover a multitude of sins. The question is whether "Not acceptable" means "painful" or "bring out the pitchforks, hay and matches".williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
It also begs the question what the money is buying.0 -
Perhaps they should have polled on the basis of millions per week.Richard_Nabavi said:
Also I'm very suspicious of the calibration. I have a sneaky feeling that if they had asked the same question, but offered £5bn, £10bn, £15bn and £20bn, the four bands would have received similar levels of support, because, irrespective of the actual figures quoted, the question is likely to be interpreted as 'a bit, quite a bit, a lot, a hell of a lot'.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that polling is very helpful for understanding the public's stance. "Acceptable" and "Not acceptable" cover a multitude of sins. The question is whether "Not acceptable" means "painful" or "bring out the pitchforks, hay and matches".williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
It also begs the question what the money is buying.
Maybe:
£150m per week
£350m per week
£550m per week
£750m per week0 -
Sure I'm serious. We have a higher proportion of voters supporting the government than we did then, and on Brexit the two main parties are in total agreement, notwithstanding Keir Starmer's intellectual gyrations of the weekend.williamglenn said:
You cannot be serious.Richard_Nabavi said:Surely the country is less divided than it was in, say, 2005?
Oh, and pretty much everyone agrees that the PM is rubbish!0 -
England or the draw now.0
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BollocksRichard_Nabavi said:on Brexit the two main parties are in total agreement
Not even the cabinet are in total agreement.
Not even the Foreign Secretary is in total agreement with himself.0 -
Well, that's true. But then, that's true of the Foreign Secretary's views on almost any question you might care to mention, other than the question of who should be the next PM.Scott_P said:Not even the Foreign Secretary is in total agreement with himself.
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This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill0 -
An i teresting twitter thread here on the parallels between a Britain divided over Iraq, and a Britain divided over Brexit:
https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/9025533984694231060 -
The last YouGov voting intention poll a month ago had with CON 3% behind so changes all within the margin of error.
And their first poll after the GE had Labour 8 ahead......0 -
No need to make guesses about a subsample when you can actually look at the Yougov one.HYUFD said:
So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for SturgeonRichard_Nabavi said:A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:
Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)
Conservatives: 42% (no change)
Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
Ukip: 3% (no change)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live
16:15
It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,
Which I'm sure you already have.0 -
Windies are favourites aren't they?SouthamObserver said:England or the draw now.
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Mr. Nabavi, that's entirely possible.
There's a natural trend to the middle on a similar basis. It's why kettles, for example, often have Superswanky, Middle, and Economy models. Most people won't spend a fortune but don't want to be Economy buyers, so even though it'll be functionally identical to the Middle model they'll spend a little extra.
It'd be very useful to have polls with £5bn increments as you suggest, and with £20bn increments.0 -
Which is presumably why the government is not negotiating with the EU on the exit amount. But I don't think it necessarily means the public are prepared for no deal. The problem is that the public is not prepared for any outcome that is worse than what we have already but all Brexit outcomes WILL be worse than what we have already. It's a case of picking your least bad option.williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%0 -
I simply don't understand what the criticism of the government is on this issue. Clearly we want to pay as close to zero as we can get away with, if we're getting nothing in return. It would be insane, and irresponsible of the government, to do otherwise. So, if we are to pay more than tuppence ha'penny, we need to see the colour of their trade deal, and then we can judge if a given price is worth paying.Big_G_NorthWales said:This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
Some of the commentators seem be suggesting that we should agree to pay sums comparable to the entire education budget just so as not to be beastly to Mr Juncker.0 -
It will be 'pivotal' until it's not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
Of rather more interest is what happens to the UK economy post Brexit. A couple of tens of billions either way might make any deal easier or more difficult to sell, but it's what happens next that really counts.
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My money on WI from here - though all results possible.SouthamObserver said:England or the draw now.
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At 1.91 ?Nigelb said:
My money on WI from here - though all results possible.SouthamObserver said:England or the draw now.
Touch short in my opinion..0 -
I wouldn't be putting more on at current odds, but not hedging, either.Pulpstar said:
At 1.91 ?Nigelb said:
My money on WI from here - though all results possible.SouthamObserver said:England or the draw now.
Touch short in my opinion..
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Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)
Bad light stops play I reckon...
The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.
Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..0 -
A few weeks of positive, adulatory headlines in the right wing press, a small boost in the polls and then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
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Liam Fox has it covered.Nigelb said:
It will be 'pivotal' until it's not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
Of rather more interest is what happens to the UK economy post Brexit. A couple of tens of billions either way might make any deal easier or more difficult to sell, but it's what happens next that really counts.
https://twitter.com/isaby/status/9024985434532536320 -
Mr. Nabavi, I agree entirely. It's demented to expect payment to be sorted (beyond short-term commitments) when we don't know what the situation we're paying for will be.0
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If Shai Hope is still there in an hour, West Indies will surely win.
But even if he goes, they'll have to bad pretty badly not to draw. Still, given their propensity for brain fades I suppose it can't be ruled out.0 -
Well he can certainly see the ball at the moment !Nigelb said:
And Blackwood can force the pace....Pulpstar said:Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)
Bad light stops play I reckon...
The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.
Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..0 -
Not if you voted Leave to reduce immigration, the rate of increase in migration has already fallen in the latest post Brexit figuresFF43 said:
Which is presumably why the government is not negotiating with the EU on the exit amount. But I don't think it necessarily means the public are prepared for no deal. The problem is that the public is not prepared for any outcome that is worse than what we have already but all Brexit outcomes WILL be worse than what we have already. It's a case of picking your least bad option.williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%0 -
Fox makes Piers Morgan's arse look smart.williamglenn said:
Liam Fox has it covered.Nigelb said:
It will be 'pivotal' until it's not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
Of rather more interest is what happens to the UK economy post Brexit. A couple of tens of billions either way might make any deal easier or more difficult to sell, but it's what happens next that really counts.
https://twitter.com/isaby/status/902498543453253632
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We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?
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I would like the West Indies to win this. There, I've said it. For cricket generally it would be by far the best result.0
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Drinks lol0
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What seems rather more interesting, to me, is why the experience of the previous 40 years failed to convert so many Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).
No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?
In my own case I was a fervent "Joiner" who wanted to believe in the political project. The past 40-odd years converted me to a Leaver.0 -
I was talking about ICM but the yougov subsample still has the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014Theuniondivvie said:
No need to make guesses about a subsample when you can actually look at the Yougov one.HYUFD said:
So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for SturgeonRichard_Nabavi said:A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:
Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)
Conservatives: 42% (no change)
Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
Ukip: 3% (no change)
Greens: 3% (up 1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live
16:15
It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,
Which I'm sure you already have.0 -
As I was before the referendum, so I'm not sure what you mean by 'now'.Gardenwalker said:Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
As for your question as to why we are doing this - because that's what the buggers voted for. Simple as that.0 -
Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under LabourBig_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill0 -
Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leaveGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?0 -
Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planetGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?0 -
And could quite possibly be wrong both times...AnneJGP said:
What seems rather more interesting, to me, is why the experience of the previous 40 years failed to convert so many Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).
No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?
In my own case I was a fervent "Joiner" who wanted to believe in the political project. The past 40-odd years converted me to a Leaver.
0 -
Iain MartinVerified account @iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
Why is George Osborne always supporting the EU against Britain?0 -
If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?0
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Sir! I know the answer! Is it because he's an enemy of the people?Allan said:Iain MartinVerified account @iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
Why is George Osborne always supporting the EU against Britain?0 -
This poll is quite bad news for Labour which if it were to stand much chance of forming a government should be way ahead in the polls, especially against such a mediocre government with a not very well respected prime minister -remember Miliband and Kinnock had double digit leads. Given that Yougov employs a methodology which is generous to Labour -it is unlikely to be understating Labour's popularity, I would say that those who think Jeremy Corbyn is marching on Downing Street to the tune of "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" might be in for a bit of a disappointment -and a long wait to experience it too.0
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No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.Philip_Thompson said:If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?
Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.0 -
Me to. With age comes wisdom.AnneJGP said:
What seems rather more interesting, to me, is why the experience of the previous 40 years failed to convert so many Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).
No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?
In my own case I was a fervent "Joiner" who wanted to believe in the political project. The past 40-odd years converted me to a Leaver.
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It has been declared that Shai Hope's official nickname on TMS will be 'the London Bus.'
Because he waited 11 Tests for his first century then two came along at once.0 -
I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.ydoethur said:
No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.Philip_Thompson said:If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?
Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.0 -
Patriotism is the first refuge of Leavers.Allan said:Iain MartinVerified account @iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
Why is George Osborne always supporting the EU against Britain?0 -
His older brother, Kyle, made his debut last week, which is where I think the confusion comes.Philip_Thompson said:
I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.ydoethur said:
No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.Philip_Thompson said:If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?
Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.0 -
Congratulations to Shai Hope on becoming the first player to score two centuries in the same first-class match at Headingley.0
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So he is not a A New Hope.ydoethur said:
His older brother, Kyle, made his debut last week, which is where I think the confusion comes.Philip_Thompson said:
I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.ydoethur said:
No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.Philip_Thompson said:If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?
Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.
I'll get my coat.0 -
Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leaveGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?
But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.
The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?
Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.
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If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.HYUFD said:
Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under LabourBig_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
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He was Episode 1, the earlier person despite coming later on, but he's proving to be anything but a Phantom Menace.Philip_Thompson said:
So he is not a A New Hope.ydoethur said:
His older brother, Kyle, made his debut last week, which is where I think the confusion comes.Philip_Thompson said:
I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.ydoethur said:
No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.Philip_Thompson said:If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?
Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.
I'll get my coat.
Could you pass me my coat too please?0 -
But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.HYUFD said:
Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planetGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?0 -
Dear Alistair Cook
You have never caught a cold.
But could you please catch the f***ing edges?
Yours, Y Doethur0 -
China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economyGardenwalker said:
But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.HYUFD said:
Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planetGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp
Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum0 -
Juncker's line comparing Cameron with Gorbachev does suggest that some are already planning for a post-UK era should it come to that.Gardenwalker said:
But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.HYUFD said:
Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planetGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?0 -
No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill0 -
The desire to reduce immigration and payments to the EU has not reduced at all (see today's poll on payments)Gardenwalker said:
Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leaveGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?
But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.
The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?
Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.0 -
True, but then you wouldn't be exercised by exit costs as most people appear to be, according to that poll. Also the relative reduction in immigration is down to the authorities being unpleasant to would be immigrants, which they could and are doing while the UK remains in the EU. I don't support that unpleasantness. It's neither useful nor the right thing to do, but it does get immigration down.HYUFD said:
Not if you voted Leave to reduce immigration, the rate of increase in migration has already fallen in the latest post Brexit figuresFF43 said:
Which is presumably why the government is not negotiating with the EU on the exit amount. But I don't think it necessarily means the public are prepared for no deal. The problem is that the public is not prepared for any outcome that is worse than what we have already but all Brexit outcomes WILL be worse than what we have already. It's a case of picking your least bad option.williamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%0 -
Is there some sort of stupid rule that says that the majority of light has to be natural rather than from the floodlights? A bit silly since the previous game was a day/night match.0
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The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EUSouthamObserver said:
If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.HYUFD said:
Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under LabourBig_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill0 -
China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.HYUFD said:
China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economyGardenwalker said:
But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.HYUFD said:
Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planetGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp
Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.0 -
Silly comparison. No part of the UK left on Cameron's watch. I do hope for all our sakes that we don't end up by comparing Juncker to Gorby with us cast as Ukraine.williamglenn said:
Juncker's line comparing Cameron with Gorbachev does suggest that some are already planning for a post-UK era should it come to that.Gardenwalker said:
But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.HYUFD said:
Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planetGardenwalker said:We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.
Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.
The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.
Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.
We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.
Why are we doing this again?0 -
There's an alternative way of interpreting the government's reluctance to discuss the exit bill in concrete terms or to provide any bold thinking on Northern Ireland.foxinsoxuk said:
No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.HYUFD said:
Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boriswilliamglenn said:The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.
£10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
£20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
£30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
£40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
That is that they are already planning to abandon Brexit and don't want to weaken the UK's position unnecessarily before getting to that point. If their aim is the status quo ante, they need stalemate and there is no upside to making concessions.0
