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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while Yo

SystemSystem Posts: 12,259
edited August 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while YouGov has the Tories within one point

The last YouGov voting intention poll a month ago had with CON 3% behind so changes all within the margin of error.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,139
    First :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,

    Vince is very much yesterdays news.

    I don't think he was a good choice for the LibDems.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    philiph said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,

    Vince is very much yesterdays news.

    I don't think he was a good choice for the LibDems.
    I agree with that. The Lib Dems need to reposition themselves as the internationlist party. That's where the opportunities are for them rather than try to cling on to their remaining holdouts.

    The chart above shows there is no big downside to Labour taking a Brexit-sceptic stance.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,145
    Where the EU is concerned, I don't see that much has happened yet to bring about changes of mind. Unless, of course, the apparent steadiness is masking a lot of churn - people changing their minds in both directions & still roughly balancing out. That would be interesting, if it were happening, but (without having looked at the back catalogue of charts) the party differentials still seem to be ball-park similar too.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    How long until we go back to 25 smiling Theresa's? :D
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,734
    FPT:

    Fox News just permanently stopped broadcasting on Sky TV platform - went off air at 4pm.

    See link:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/29/sky-to-stop-broadcasting-rightwing-us-channel-fox-news-in-uk
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,734
    No new polls for what seems like ages - then two in a few minutes!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    Running those numbers through Baxter's site - Labour 31 short.

    Lab-SNP-LD coalition?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    Get your bets on:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-len-mccluskey-who-thinks-emily-thornberry-is-the-next-leader-of-the-labour-party-a7918606.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Lacklustre Government, Opposition by the far left, and both polling in the 40s, acting as one another's deterrent in a MAD situation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    First race at Carlisle, winner @ 25/1, FAKE NEWS
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,139
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Lacklustre Government, Opposition by the far left, and both polling in the 40s, acting as one another's deterrent in a MAD situation.

    The only winning move is not to play. HM rule by decree? :D
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Fox News just permanently stopped broadcasting on Sky TV platform - went off air at 4pm.

    See link:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/29/sky-to-stop-broadcasting-rightwing-us-channel-fox-news-in-uk

    HA! Hiding the rubbish from OFCOM...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,139
    rottenborough said:

    Get your bets on:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-len-mccluskey-who-thinks-emily-thornberry-is-the-next-leader-of-the-labour-party-a7918606.html

    The next leader "has to be a woman"? Talk about tokenism...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rottenborough said:

    Get your bets on:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-len-mccluskey-who-thinks-emily-thornberry-is-the-next-leader-of-the-labour-party-a7918606.html

    Done!

    I had completely forgotten ed sacked her for the flag photo.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    So basically Britain wants the government to leave without a deal?

    #HardBrexit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,634
    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    'No deal' it should be then.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,758
    Country split down the middle - large parts of both big parties' support probably driven by extreme antipathy to the other big party. We are not a happy country. Hard to see how this changes until new leaderships are installed. Tories likely to do that first, but the realistic options are less than mouthwatering, to say the least.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rottenborough said:

    Get your bets on:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-len-mccluskey-who-thinks-emily-thornberry-is-the-next-leader-of-the-labour-party-a7918606.html

    Done!

    I had completely forgotten ed sacked her for the flag photo.
    She's drifting down on BF. Now joint favourite.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,758
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    So basically Britain wants the government to leave without a deal?

    #HardBrexit

    Except they won't want what that leads to either.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    So basically Britain wants the government to leave without a deal?

    #HardBrexit
    The lower the number, the more acceptable it is.

    Who would have thunk it?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited August 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    Country split down the middle - large parts of both big parties' support probably driven by extreme antipathy to the other big party. We are not a happy country. Hard to see how this changes until new leaderships are installed. Tories likely to do that first, but the realistic options are less than mouthwatering, to say the least.

    The country has nearly always had a split down the middle, in many ways.

    This is true of politics, class, wealth, educational opportunity, housing quality, rural / urban.

    Because the figures are about 50 50 it is a mistake to interpret that as 50 fervent yes vs 50 diehard no, or as 50 hard left Marxist Labour fanatics vs 50 ultra right Trump loving Tory boys.

    As a Nation we are far more nuanced than that, we are different but not polar opposites.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    Country split down the middle - large parts of both big parties' support probably driven by extreme antipathy to the other big party. We are not a happy country. Hard to see how this changes until new leaderships are installed. Tories likely to do that first, but the realistic options are less than mouthwatering, to say the least.

    I suppose it isn't anything new for the country to be completely divided. It was in the 1980s when about half the country broadly supported Thatcher and the other half disliked her to varying degrees.

    As expected, the Labour lead is slowly evaporating as we head out of the summer.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Surely the country is less divided than it was in, say, 2005?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).

    No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the country is less divided than it was in, say, 2005?

    You cannot be serious.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,139
    AlastairMeeks said:

    So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).

    No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?

    Similarly, why has the economic catastrophe not converted leavers? :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited August 2017
    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    I don't think that polling is very helpful for understanding the public's stance. "Acceptable" and "Not acceptable" cover a multitude of sins. The question is whether "Not acceptable" means "painful" or "bring out the pitchforks, hay and matches".

    It also begs the question what the money is buying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited August 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,

    So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for Sturgeon
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    The money figures aren't much use without the other side of the equation (ie what're we members of, what rights and responsibilities do we have).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Cricket complete reversal of the odds from about four hours ago.
    ENG 10.5 WI 1.6 Draw 3.7 :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited August 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    I don't think that polling is very helpful for understanding the public's stance. "Acceptable" and "Not acceptable" cover a multitude of sins. The question is whether "Not acceptable" means "painful" or "bring out the pitchforks, hay and matches".

    It also begs the question what the money is buying.
    Also I'm very suspicious of the calibration. I have a sneaky feeling that if they had asked the same question, but offered £5bn, £10bn, £15bn and £20bn, the four bands would have received similar levels of support, because, irrespective of the actual figures quoted, the question is likely to be interpreted as 'a bit, quite a bit, a lot, a hell of a lot'.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    I don't think that polling is very helpful for understanding the public's stance. "Acceptable" and "Not acceptable" cover a multitude of sins. The question is whether "Not acceptable" means "painful" or "bring out the pitchforks, hay and matches".

    It also begs the question what the money is buying.
    Also I'm very suspicious of the calibration. I have a sneaky feeling that if they had asked the same question, but offered £5bn, £10bn, £15bn and £20bn, the four bands would have received similar levels of support, because, irrespective of the actual figures quoted, the question is likely to be interpreted as 'a bit, quite a bit, a lot, a hell of a lot'.
    Perhaps they should have polled on the basis of millions per week.

    Maybe:

    £150m per week
    £350m per week
    £550m per week
    £750m per week
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited August 2017
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely the country is less divided than it was in, say, 2005?

    You cannot be serious.
    Sure I'm serious. We have a higher proportion of voters supporting the government than we did then, and on Brexit the two main parties are in total agreement, notwithstanding Keir Starmer's intellectual gyrations of the weekend.

    Oh, and pretty much everyone agrees that the PM is rubbish!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,758
    England or the draw now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    on Brexit the two main parties are in total agreement

    Bollocks

    Not even the cabinet are in total agreement.

    Not even the Foreign Secretary is in total agreement with himself.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Scott_P said:

    Not even the Foreign Secretary is in total agreement with himself.

    Well, that's true. But then, that's true of the Foreign Secretary's views on almost any question you might care to mention, other than the question of who should be the next PM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited August 2017
    @FrankUnderwocd: I just leave this here.
    https://twitter.com/cgdavey1/status/902557524083318784
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    An i teresting twitter thread here on the parallels between a Britain divided over Iraq, and a Britain divided over Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/902553398469423106
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,227
    The last YouGov voting intention poll a month ago had with CON 3% behind so changes all within the margin of error.

    And their first poll after the GE had Labour 8 ahead......
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,353
    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,

    So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for Sturgeon
    No need to make guesses about a subsample when you can actually look at the Yougov one.

    Which I'm sure you already have.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SouthamObserver said:

    England or the draw now.

    Windies are favourites aren't they?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Nabavi, that's entirely possible.

    There's a natural trend to the middle on a similar basis. It's why kettles, for example, often have Superswanky, Middle, and Economy models. Most people won't spend a fortune but don't want to be Economy buyers, so even though it'll be functionally identical to the Middle model they'll spend a little extra.

    It'd be very useful to have polls with £5bn increments as you suggest, and with £20bn increments.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    edited August 2017
    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Which is presumably why the government is not negotiating with the EU on the exit amount. But I don't think it necessarily means the public are prepared for no deal. The problem is that the public is not prepared for any outcome that is worse than what we have already but all Brexit outcomes WILL be worse than what we have already. It's a case of picking your least bad option.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited August 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill

    I simply don't understand what the criticism of the government is on this issue. Clearly we want to pay as close to zero as we can get away with, if we're getting nothing in return. It would be insane, and irresponsible of the government, to do otherwise. So, if we are to pay more than tuppence ha'penny, we need to see the colour of their trade deal, and then we can judge if a given price is worth paying.

    Some of the commentators seem be suggesting that we should agree to pay sums comparable to the entire education budget just so as not to be beastly to Mr Juncker.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,965
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    It will be 'pivotal' until it's not.
    Of rather more interest is what happens to the UK economy post Brexit. A couple of tens of billions either way might make any deal easier or more difficult to sell, but it's what happens next that really counts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,965
    SouthamObserver said:

    England or the draw now.

    My money on WI from here - though all results possible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,634
    Nigelb said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    England or the draw now.

    My money on WI from here - though all results possible.
    At 1.91 ?

    Touch short in my opinion..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,965
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    England or the draw now.

    My money on WI from here - though all results possible.
    At 1.91 ?

    Touch short in my opinion..
    I wouldn't be putting more on at current odds, but not hedging, either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,634
    edited August 2017
    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,758
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill

    A few weeks of positive, adulatory headlines in the right wing press, a small boost in the polls and then what?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    It will be 'pivotal' until it's not.
    Of rather more interest is what happens to the UK economy post Brexit. A couple of tens of billions either way might make any deal easier or more difficult to sell, but it's what happens next that really counts.
    Liam Fox has it covered.
    https://twitter.com/isaby/status/902498543453253632
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,965
    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    And Blackwood can force the pace....

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Nabavi, I agree entirely. It's demented to expect payment to be sorted (beyond short-term commitments) when we don't know what the situation we're paying for will be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    If Shai Hope is still there in an hour, West Indies will surely win.

    But even if he goes, they'll have to bad pretty badly not to draw. Still, given their propensity for brain fades I suppose it can't be ruled out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,634
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    And Blackwood can force the pace....

    Well he can certainly see the ball at the moment !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    FF43 said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Which is presumably why the government is not negotiating with the EU on the exit amount. But I don't think it necessarily means the public are prepared for no deal. The problem is that the public is not prepared for any outcome that is worse than what we have already but all Brexit outcomes WILL be worse than what we have already. It's a case of picking your least bad option.
    Not if you voted Leave to reduce immigration, the rate of increase in migration has already fallen in the latest post Brexit figures
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,965
    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    It will be 'pivotal' until it's not.
    Of rather more interest is what happens to the UK economy post Brexit. A couple of tens of billions either way might make any deal easier or more difficult to sell, but it's what happens next that really counts.
    Liam Fox has it covered.
    https://twitter.com/isaby/status/902498543453253632
    Fox makes Piers Morgan's arse look smart.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,518
    edited August 2017
    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,758
    I would like the West Indies to win this. There, I've said it. For cricket generally it would be by far the best result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,634
    Drinks lol
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,145
    AlastairMeeks said:

    So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).

    No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?

    What seems rather more interesting, to me, is why the experience of the previous 40 years failed to convert so many Leavers.

    In my own case I was a fervent "Joiner" who wanted to believe in the political project. The past 40-odd years converted me to a Leaver.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    Pulpstar said:

    Drinks lol

    You can't blame Joe Root for needing a drink, probably a triple Scotch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,

    So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for Sturgeon
    No need to make guesses about a subsample when you can actually look at the Yougov one.

    Which I'm sure you already have.
    I was talking about ICM but the yougov subsample still has the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited August 2017
    Gardenwalker said:

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    As I was before the referendum, so I'm not sure what you mean by 'now'.

    As for your question as to why we are doing this - because that's what the buggers voted for. Simple as that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leave
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,965
    AnneJGP said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).

    No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?

    What seems rather more interesting, to me, is why the experience of the previous 40 years failed to convert so many Leavers.

    In my own case I was a fervent "Joiner" who wanted to believe in the political project. The past 40-odd years converted me to a Leaver.
    And could quite possibly be wrong both times...

  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    Iain Martin‏Verified account @iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
    Why is George Osborne always supporting the EU against Britain?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    Allan said:

    Iain Martin‏Verified account @iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
    Why is George Osborne always supporting the EU against Britain?

    Sir! I know the answer! Is it because he's an enemy of the people?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    This poll is quite bad news for Labour which if it were to stand much chance of forming a government should be way ahead in the polls, especially against such a mediocre government with a not very well respected prime minister -remember Miliband and Kinnock had double digit leads. Given that Yougov employs a methodology which is generous to Labour -it is unlikely to be understating Labour's popularity, I would say that those who think Jeremy Corbyn is marching on Downing Street to the tune of "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" might be in for a bit of a disappointment -and a long wait to experience it too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    edited August 2017
    Philip_Thompson said:

    If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?

    No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.

    Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    AnneJGP said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).

    No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?

    What seems rather more interesting, to me, is why the experience of the previous 40 years failed to convert so many Leavers.

    In my own case I was a fervent "Joiner" who wanted to believe in the political project. The past 40-odd years converted me to a Leaver.
    Me to. With age comes wisdom.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    It has been declared that Shai Hope's official nickname on TMS will be 'the London Bus.'

    Because he waited 11 Tests for his first century then two came along at once.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?

    No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.

    Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.
    I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Allan said:

    Iain Martin‏Verified account @iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
    Why is George Osborne always supporting the EU against Britain?

    Patriotism is the first refuge of Leavers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    Philip_Thompson said:

    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?

    No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.

    Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.
    I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.
    His older brother, Kyle, made his debut last week, which is where I think the confusion comes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Congratulations to Shai Hope on becoming the first player to score two centuries in the same first-class match at Headingley.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?

    No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.

    Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.
    I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.
    His older brother, Kyle, made his debut last week, which is where I think the confusion comes.
    So he is not a A New Hope.

    I'll get my coat.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,518
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leave
    Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.

    But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.

    The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?

    Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.


  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,758
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    edited August 2017
    Philip_Thompson said:

    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    ydoethur said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If Shai Hope were to retire after this Test then wouldn't he have a higher Test average than Donald Bradman?

    No, because he's averaging 18 before this Test.

    Although there is one West Indies keeper who does average higher than Bradman - 112. However as that was his sole innings it isn't technically an average.
    I thought this was his maiden Test. My mistake.
    His older brother, Kyle, made his debut last week, which is where I think the confusion comes.
    So he is not a A New Hope.

    I'll get my coat.
    He was Episode 1, the earlier person despite coming later on, but he's proving to be anything but a Phantom Menace.

    Could you pass me my coat too please?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,518
    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    Dear Alistair Cook

    You have never caught a cold.

    But could you please catch the f***ing edges?

    Yours, Y Doethur
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    Gardenwalker said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    Gardenwalker said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    Juncker's line comparing Cameron with Gorbachev does suggest that some are already planning for a post-UK era should it come to that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    Gardenwalker said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leave
    Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.

    But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.

    The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?

    Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.


    The desire to reduce immigration and payments to the EU has not reduced at all (see today's poll on payments)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Which is presumably why the government is not negotiating with the EU on the exit amount. But I don't think it necessarily means the public are prepared for no deal. The problem is that the public is not prepared for any outcome that is worse than what we have already but all Brexit outcomes WILL be worse than what we have already. It's a case of picking your least bad option.
    Not if you voted Leave to reduce immigration, the rate of increase in migration has already fallen in the latest post Brexit figures
    True, but then you wouldn't be exercised by exit costs as most people appear to be, according to that poll. Also the relative reduction in immigration is down to the authorities being unpleasant to would be immigrants, which they could and are doing while the UK remains in the EU. I don't support that unpleasantness. It's neither useful nor the right thing to do, but it does get immigration down.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is there some sort of stupid rule that says that the majority of light has to be natural rather than from the floodlights? A bit silly since the previous game was a day/night match.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,518
    edited August 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    williamglenn said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    Juncker's line comparing Cameron with Gorbachev does suggest that some are already planning for a post-UK era should it come to that.
    Silly comparison. No part of the UK left on Cameron's watch. I do hope for all our sakes that we don't end up by comparing Juncker to Gorby with us cast as Ukraine.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    edited August 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.
    There's an alternative way of interpreting the government's reluctance to discuss the exit bill in concrete terms or to provide any bold thinking on Northern Ireland.

    That is that they are already planning to abandon Brexit and don't want to weaken the UK's position unnecessarily before getting to that point. If their aim is the status quo ante, they need stalemate and there is no upside to making concessions.
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