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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.

    On the other hand, the EU27 have the reverse problem. It's unclear to me whether they are bluffing, or whether they really do think we'd be so irrational as to gift them tens of billions for nothing in return, but no deal is a very bad deal for them as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Which is presumably why the government is not negotiating with the EU on the exit amount. But I don't think it necessarily means the public are prepared for no deal. The problem is that the public is not prepared for any outcome that is worse than what we have already but all Brexit outcomes WILL be worse than what we have already. It's a case of picking your least bad option.
    Not if you voted Leave to reduce immigration, the rate of increase in migration has already fallen in the latest post Brexit figures
    True, but then you wouldn't be exercised by exit costs as most people appear to be, according to that poll. Also the relative reduction in immigration is down to the authorities being unpleasant to would be immigrants, which they could and are doing while the UK remains in the EU. I don't support that unpleasantness. It's neither useful nor the right thing to do, but it does get immigration down.
    The rate of migration continued to increase when we were in the EU, only once we left has the rate started to fall
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    Nonetheless it shows neither think we made a massive error leaving the EU, at most both are indifferent
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.
    There's an alternative way of interpreting the government's reluctance to discuss the exit bill in concrete terms or to provide any bold thinking on Northern Ireland.

    That is that they are already planning to abandon Brexit and don't want to weaken the UK's position unnecessarily before getting to that point. If their aim is the status quo ante, they need stalemate and there is no upside to making concessions.
    This seems to fit *some* of the facts - for example, why a British cabinet would be leading the country toward a status both economically and geopolitically inferior than before?

    But it doesn't explain the pathetic, alienating rhetoric to the tabloids, does it? Or - does it?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.

    On the other hand, the EU27 have the reverse problem. It's unclear to me whether they are bluffing, or whether they really do think we'd be so irrational as to gift them tens of billions for nothing in return, but no deal is a very bad deal for them as well.
    Yup

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    He's a peril to the continued existence of global civilisation, but any influence he might have on the future prosperity of the UK is likely minimal.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.

    On the other hand, the EU27 have the reverse problem. It's unclear to me whether they are bluffing, or whether they really do think we'd be so irrational as to gift them tens of billions for nothing in return, but no deal is a very bad deal for them as well.
    I am not particularly advocating WTO Brexit, just see it as inevitable. The positions and politicians on both sides are entrenched and it is the default outcome.

    We do also need to allow for ratification time, so we are probably just 12 months off the end of negotiations. It makes me very glad to be in the ultimate secure job...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,402

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Assuming the EU and member countries don't care what the UK public think about the money demands, the problem is that walking away without a deal doesn't resolve anything. Massively the opposite actually. There will be chaos and our government would have justify that chaos to the public. They are far better taking the hit on the money and moving on.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    As I was before the referendum, so I'm not sure what you mean by 'now'.

    As for your question as to why we are doing this - because that's what the buggers voted for. Simple as that.
    You voted Remain. Would you still do so, with the facts as they are known today?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    You voted Remain. Would you still do so, with the facts as they are known today?

    Yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.

    On the other hand, the EU27 have the reverse problem. It's unclear to me whether they are bluffing, or whether they really do think we'd be so irrational as to gift them tens of billions for nothing in return, but no deal is a very bad deal for them as well.
    I am not particularly advocating WTO Brexit, just see it as inevitable. The positions and politicians on both sides are entrenched and it is the default outcome.

    We do also need to allow for ratification time, so we are probably just 12 months off the end of negotiations. It makes me very glad to be in the ultimate secure job...
    Unless you are an undertaker, midwife or lady of the night I don't think anyone can say their job is absolutely secure
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    Nonetheless it shows neither think we made a massive error leaving the EU, at most both are indifferent
    I don't think that's a credible statement.

    Both China and the US supported the UK in Brexit - and for similar reasons - as a potentially powerful pro-trade ally within the EU.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2017
    HYUFD said:

    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.

    On the other hand, the EU27 have the reverse problem. It's unclear to me whether they are bluffing, or whether they really do think we'd be so irrational as to gift them tens of billions for nothing in return, but no deal is a very bad deal for them as well.
    I am not particularly advocating WTO Brexit, just see it as inevitable. The positions and politicians on both sides are entrenched and it is the default outcome.

    We do also need to allow for ratification time, so we are probably just 12 months off the end of negotiations. It makes me very glad to be in the ultimate secure job...
    Unless you are an undertaker, midwife or lady of the night I don't think anyone can say their job is absolutely secure
    One thing I can be certain of is that Leave or Remain, or even in a Zombie apocalypse, there will be sick people.

    It is also a usefully in demand skill worldwide too.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    Doesn't light get offered?

    Hick and Thorpe won in the dark in pakistan a decade or so back....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    FF43 said:

    Assuming the EU and member countries don't care what the UK public think about the money demands, the problem is that walking away without a deal doesn't resolve anything. Massively the opposite actually. There will be chaos and our government would have justify that chaos to the public. They are far better taking the hit on the money and moving on.

    The problem with that analysis is the EU27 are not offering a deal in return for the money. If they were, we could have a sensible negotiation.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Don't tell Activate, but their website still has a link (in the top right corner) to the old Twitter account (the one that got hacked) instead of the new one (which replaced it).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    He's a peril to the continued existence of global civilisation, but any influence he might have on the future prosperity of the UK is likely minimal.
    that says he's not an irrelevance

    as for global civilisation your comment is just plain daft

    has the US stopped elections every 4 years ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    Doesn't light get offered?

    Hick and Thorpe won in the dark in pakistan a decade or so back....
    It can be, but as the umpires have not taken a prior reading in the match they don't have to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    Doesn't light get offered?

    Hick and Thorpe won in the dark in pakistan a decade or so back....
    No. England were robbed of a win in similar conditions fairly recently.

    One feels the umpires might fear a lynching if they were to stop the game now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    The same reason they reported ad nauseum on Love Island, with the added titillation of moral horror.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Because a proportion of our population likes waving flags and mooning in a superior fashion at the furriners across the Channel.

    After Brexit, I was initially mainly disappointed but since I've become increasingly pissed off with those who pushed it, how they went about pushing it, their failure to have a real plan and most significantly their failure to acknowledge how it would impact negatively on many people's lives.

    The country is totally divided. The mistake of all was to see Brexit as a great victory for one side. Now we've all got to pay the price, which will be a big one.



  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528

    You voted Remain. Would you still do so, with the facts as they are known today?

    Yes.
    Good. It does appear that apart from Big G nobody on this board has changed their minds.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Because a proportion of our population likes waving flags and mooning in a superior fashion at the furriners across the Channel.


    This quote is a good indication of why so many voted Leave. Because smug Remainers stopped listening and assumed they had natural superiority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    Nonetheless it shows neither think we made a massive error leaving the EU, at most both are indifferent
    I don't think that's a credible statement.

    Both China and the US supported the UK in Brexit - and for similar reasons - as a potentially powerful pro-trade ally within the EU.
    The US President is the first US President in post-war history to have advocated the UK leave the EU when the UK PM was arguing it should stay, China could not really care less either way
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    No politician can survive paying a Brexit bill. That is why none will name what they think is reasonable, and one of many reasons WTO Brexit is nailed on. A sensible government may want to start planning, even just as a contingency.

    On the other hand, the EU27 have the reverse problem. It's unclear to me whether they are bluffing, or whether they really do think we'd be so irrational as to gift them tens of billions for nothing in return, but no deal is a very bad deal for them as well.
    I am not particularly advocating WTO Brexit, just see it as inevitable. The positions and politicians on both sides are entrenched and it is the default outcome.

    We do also need to allow for ratification time, so we are probably just 12 months off the end of negotiations. It makes me very glad to be in the ultimate secure job...
    Unless you are an undertaker, midwife or lady of the night I don't think anyone can say their job is absolutely secure
    One thing I can be certain of is that Leave or Remain, or even in a Zombie apocalypse, there will be sick people.

    It is also a usefully in demand skill worldwide too.
    True but even sone minor surgery etc may fall to automation
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    Then we have a stupid impasse again, like the Irish issue. Who came up with this crap timetable again?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    Doesn't light get offered?

    Hick and Thorpe won in the dark in pakistan a decade or so back....
    No. England were robbed of a win in similar conditions fairly recently.

    One feels the umpires might fear a lynching if they were to stop the game now.
    My bet obviously looks like a loser now - but was based off the fact umpires often don't apply common sense in these situations.
    Thankfully for the good of the game it seems they may well be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Mortimer said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Because a proportion of our population likes waving flags and mooning in a superior fashion at the furriners across the Channel.


    This quote is a good indication of why so many voted Leave. Because smug Remainers stopped listening and assumed they had natural superiority.
    Indeed, the Leave vote was the first time the majority of the working class outvoted the majority of the Middle class since Harold Wilson beat Ted Heath in October 1974
  • Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    Then we have a stupid impasse again, like the Irish issue. Who came up with this crap timetable again?

    The UK triggered A50 without fully understanding how the process would work and without a negotiating strategy.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    The same reason they reported ad nauseum on Love Island, with the added titillation of moral horror.
    so in other words he's more relevant to what people are interested in than Brexit

    hardly an irrelevance then
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    Nonetheless it shows neither think we made a massive error leaving the EU, at most both are indifferent
    I don't think that's a credible statement.

    Both China and the US supported the UK in Brexit - and for similar reasons - as a potentially powerful pro-trade ally within the EU.
    The US President is the first US President in post-war history to have advocated the UK leave the EU when the UK PM was arguing it should stay, China could not really care less either way
    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    Then we have a stupid impasse again, like the Irish issue. Who came up with this crap timetable again?

    The UK triggered A50 without fully understanding how the process would work and without a negotiating strategy.

    Who was it that came up with article 50?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    Doesn't light get offered?

    Hick and Thorpe won in the dark in pakistan a decade or so back....
    This reminds me of being at Pakistan v England in Abu Dhabi a couple of years ago. With all three results still possible and about five overs left they went off for bad light. The ultimate anticlimax.

    Edit: a dozen for the Windies from that over. England are gonna lose this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    Whether we get a transition deal or not for a year or so or a trade deal does not really make much difference as we will still be out fully under the Tories soon enough, only Labour is committed to a long term transition, long term continued free movement and long term continued payments to the EU
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    Nonetheless it shows neither think we made a massive error leaving the EU, at most both are indifferent
    I don't think that's a credible statement.

    Both China and the US supported the UK in Brexit - and for similar reasons - as a potentially powerful pro-trade ally within the EU.
    The US President is the first US President in post-war history to have advocated the UK leave the EU when the UK PM was arguing it should stay, China could not really care less either way
    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.
    I'm sure the yanks and Chinese are gagging to transfer all their investment to Malta.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    FF43 said:

    Assuming the EU and member countries don't care what the UK public think about the money demands, the problem is that walking away without a deal doesn't resolve anything. Massively the opposite actually. There will be chaos and our government would have justify that chaos to the public. They are far better taking the hit on the money and moving on.

    The problem with that analysis is the EU27 are not offering a deal in return for the money. If they were, we could have a sensible negotiation.
    This is essential, and the major flaw in the EU's stance for all "de haut en bas" comments from the likes of Junker, treating us as if we are naughty school kids late with their homework. Any "bill" is only worth paying or not worth paying in the context of the rest of the deal concerning trade and citizens' rights/ECJ.

    40bn might be sellable and "cheap", equally 5bn might be a total pointless waste.

    To use a cricket analogy (seems appropriate today) 170/9 might be below an average score but perfectly fine if you were 250 ahead from the first innings and you've had a quick blast in order to leave three and a bit sessions to bowl the opponents out. If it's your tea score on day one of a five dayer on a perfect wicket in sunny conditions with a ball doing nothing - it's rubbish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise eferendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    Nonetheless it shows neither think we made a massive error leaving the EU, at most both are indifferent
    I don't think that's a credible statement.

    Both China and the US supported the UK in Brexit - and for similar reasons - as a potentially powerful pro-trade ally within the EU.
    The US President is the first US President in post-war history to have advocated the UK leave the EU when the UK PM was arguing it should stay, China could not really care less either way
    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.
    In foreign policy the President and his administration are the current establishment in the US, as I said China could not care less either way.

    As I have already pointed out China is not a great fan of the EU at present and Trump has no love for it either
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    Whether we get a transition deal or not for a year or so or a trade deal does not really make much difference as we will still be out fully under the Tories soon enough, only Labour is committed to a long term transition, long term continued free movement and long term continued payments to the EU

    But that will be irrelevant by 2020 if there is no deal. We'll have jumped off the cliff. Any election would be about the consequences.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    The same reason they reported ad nauseum on Love Island, with the added titillation of moral horror.
    so in other words he's more relevant to what people are interested in than Brexit

    hardly an irrelevance then
    I'm talking about Brexit, though. In fact it is you who are talking irrelevantly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether
    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    Whether we get a transition deal or not for a year or so or

    But that will be irrelevant by 2020 if there is no deal. We'll have jumped off the cliff. Any election would be about the consequences.

    A majority of UK trade goes outside the EU so no whatever happens, even tariffs, it may be harder but we are not jumping off a cliff. The next general election will be about affirming support for controlling free movement for the next few years and ending continued large payments to the EU or staying in the single market for years with continued unlimited immigration and continued vast payments to the EU
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    Then we have a stupid impasse again, like the Irish issue. Who came up with this crap timetable again?

    The UK triggered A50 without fully understanding how the process would work and without a negotiating strategy.

    Who was it that came up with article 50?

    A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Mortimer said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Because a proportion of our population likes waving flags and mooning in a superior fashion at the furriners across the Channel.


    This quote is a good indication of why so many voted Leave. Because smug Remainers stopped listening and assumed they had natural superiority.
    If you say so, Morty. But I demur. You may not like it, but that very sentiment has been pushed in the Express/Mail/Sun on a daily basis for the last 30 years and a good proportion of the leave vote saw it that way accordingly. I see it on my facebook feed every day. So I'm not sure that the vote was driven by anyone's natural superiority except those who still seem to see England, and yes it is largely England, as the special country. Dear God, don't we see it every World Cup. Have we learnt nothing from it?


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    6 runs needed
    6 wickets remaining
    6 overs left.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    Nonetheless it shows neither think we made a massive error leaving the EU, at most both are indifferent
    I don't think that's a credible statement.

    Both China and the US supported the UK in Brexit - and for similar reasons - as a potentially powerful pro-trade ally within the EU.
    The US President is the first US President in post-war history to have advocated the UK leave the EU when the UK PM was arguing it should stay, China could not really care less either way
    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.
    I'm sure the yanks and Chinese are gagging to transfer all their investment to Malta.
    Jeez the Brexiters are talking shite tonight.
    I can only assume there's absolutely no substance there.

    Must be traumatising to have actually *voted* for this circus.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The ICM polling on the Brexit bill is interesting and will be giving the government a big headache.

    £10bn: Acceptable: 41% - Not acceptable: 40%
    £20bn: Acceptable: 18% - Not acceptable: 65%
    £30bn: Acceptable: 11% - Not acceptable: 72%
    £40bn: Acceptable: 9% - Not acceptable: 75%

    Makes it even more likely the transition period lasts no longer than a year then it is full Brexit under Boris
    This is the point I have been making for some time. The Brexit bill will be pivotal to public opinion and the government standing firm against 20 billion plus will see the narrative turn very much against the EU.

    I would also ask the remainers which politician or party is going to concede to the EU on a large Brexit bill
    Indeed, it will be a general election in 2020 and an end to free movement and big payments to the EU with the Tories or their continuing for years under Labour

    If we don't agree a payment schedule we'll have walked off the cliff way before 2020 and there'll be no transition.

    The end point for talks is March 2019 and of course the EU also has an interested in keeping at least some of the billions it is set to lose once the UK leaves the EU

    We leave in March 2019. A deal will need to be finalised way before that so it can be approved by EU27 member states and the UK Parliament, and its provisions put in place.

    Negotiations on any trade agreement will likely run into 2020 but whether in 2019 or 2020 the general election choice will be the same - ending free movement and large payments to the EU under the Tories or continuing them for years under Labour

    Only if we get to a point where the EU27 agree to a transition deal. That won't happen without the UK agreeing a payment deal.

    But that will be irrelevant by 2020 if there is no deal. We'll have jumped off the cliff. Any election would be about the consequences.

    You can repeat the same cliched analogies all you want. It doesn't make them any more true than "losing the City to Frankfurt" when we didn't join the Euro. This so-called cliff jumping will be a mild slowdown, a flurry of retweeted news stories in a few sectors, and then continued growth. Albeit with a better skill mix in immigration, less money sent to Brussels and more control over our own laws.


  • A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

    That's simply not true. Remainers mocked Davis for saying national governments would add pressure to Brussels' negotiating stance. Now it turns out the French are doing exactly that. He was the one that understood the whole time, while Remainers wrongly argued we were an unimportant minnow.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.

    I would regret the loss of influence, if I thought we had any. In fact the closest we got with the US was that in the Iraq war Bush temporarily granted us Most Favoured Sycophant status, and China has probably scarcely heard of us. Quite simply, we are small beer.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    The same reason they reported ad nauseum on Love Island, with the added titillation of moral horror.
    so in other words he's more relevant to what people are interested in than Brexit

    hardly an irrelevance then
    I'm talking about Brexit, though. In fact it is you who are talking irrelevantly.
    seems to me you havent much an idea of what is happening around you

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

    On the contrary, they seem to have read Article 50, but the EU27 don't, or at least are pretending not to see the bit about 'taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union'.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    That reminded me of Headingley 01, only the other way around. Hope = Butcher, Braithwaite = Hussain, Blackwood = Ramprakash.

    And Root = Gilchrist's captaincy...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Was Root right to declare last night? Probably depends on what happens at Lords.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Ishmael_Z said:



    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.

    I would regret the loss of influence, if I thought we had any. In fact the closest we got with the US was that in the Iraq war Bush temporarily granted us Most Favoured Sycophant status, and China has probably scarcely heard of us. Quite simply, we are small beer.
    Apart from China the US, Russia and maybe India there are not really that many bigger beers out of 190 global nations
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leave
    Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.

    But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.

    The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?

    Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.


    People have not changed their minds about Brexit. A second vote would produce a similar result.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,402

    FF43 said:

    Assuming the EU and member countries don't care what the UK public think about the money demands, the problem is that walking away without a deal doesn't resolve anything. Massively the opposite actually. There will be chaos and our government would have justify that chaos to the public. They are far better taking the hit on the money and moving on.

    The problem with that analysis is the EU27 are not offering a deal in return for the money. If they were, we could have a sensible negotiation.
    We can propose what we like with whatever conditionality we like just as the EU have done. We don't because the government is unwilling to justify any plausible figure to the British public. What the EU will offer is a degree of continuity. They won't offer a trade deal beyond an agreement to have one at some point. Brexit will be expensive because we will be going a la carte instead buying the package and because we will aim to buy influence as a substitute for membership and direct influence. It's pay to play basically.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is forced to reckon with it.

    Trump is increasingly an irrelevance and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    The same reason they reported ad nauseum on Love Island, with the added titillation of moral horror.
    so in other words he's more relevant to what people are interested in than Brexit

    hardly an irrelevance then
    I'm talking about Brexit, though. In fact it is you who are talking irrelevantly.
    seems to me you havent much an idea of what is happening around you

    It's true I didn't see Love Island.
    So can't really comment on its "relevance" in preference to any coherent pro-Brexit argument.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528
    edited August 2017



    A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

    That's simply not true. Remainers mocked Davis for saying national governments would add pressure to Brussels' negotiating stance. Now it turns out the French are doing exactly that. He was the one that understood the whole time, while Remainers wrongly argued we were an unimportant minnow.
    At least, according to the Telegraph.
    Which is well known these days for its investment in journalism and acute political insight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    England, you bunch of mucking fuppets declaring early again, don’t you ever learn?

    On the other hand, £60 at 10.5 on the Windies from lunchtime, thank you very much!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    edited August 2017



    A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

    That's simply not true. Remainers mocked Davis for saying national governments would add pressure to Brussels' negotiating stance. Now it turns out the French are doing exactly that. He was the one that understood the whole time, while Remainers wrongly argued we were an unimportant minnow.

    LOL

    https://twitter.com/daviddavismp/status/735770073822961664

    https://twitter.com/daviddavismp/status/735770127564607489
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    AnneJGP said:

    So overall, no change (after a brief bump for Jeremy Corbyn after the general election).

    No change is in itself interesting. Why has the experience of the last year failed to convert Remainers?

    What seems rather more interesting, to me, is why the experience of the previous 40 years failed to convert so many Leavers.

    In my own case I was a fervent "Joiner" who wanted to believe in the political project. The past 40-odd years converted me to a Leaver.
    I think that's the point. Younger people in 1975 overwhelmingly voted for EU membership. What did the EU do to make them change their minds?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

    On the contrary, they seem to have read Article 50, but the EU27 don't, or at least are pretending not to see the bit about 'taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union'.
    And the EU are the ones who can't and won't negotiate.

    Junker will continue to give any papers we submit an F grade, unless they have reflected and accepted the EU position. They aren't negotiating they are confirming the position they hold, a position which is handed to the facilitators (Barnier and Co.) as the agreement that the EU 27 have come to.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Sean_F said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leave
    Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.

    But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.

    The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?

    Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.


    People have not changed their minds about Brexit. A second vote would produce a similar result.
    Not sure. I have a friend who couldn't make up his mind and abstained. He is now firmly in the remain camp. Any revote would be knife edge imo. Which wouldn't resolve anything.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited August 2017
    Sean_F said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leave
    Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.

    But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.

    The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?

    Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.


    People have not changed their minds about Brexit. A second vote would produce a similar result.
    I think you're right - broadly similar +-5%

    But if remain won 52/48, what would that achieve?

    "Remain means remain!" for the next 30 years?

    "Our European future is secure!"

    That would be the political interpretation of such a result - as profoundly wrong and undemocratic as the outcome being pursued by the nutters currently in government.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718
    GIN1138 said:

    How long until we go back to 25 smiling Theresa's? :D

    Evening GIN
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Assuming the EU and member countries don't care what the UK public think about the money demands, the problem is that walking away without a deal doesn't resolve anything. Massively the opposite actually. There will be chaos and our government would have justify that chaos to the public. They are far better taking the hit on the money and moving on.

    The problem with that analysis is the EU27 are not offering a deal in return for the money. If they were, we could have a sensible negotiation.
    We can propose what we like with whatever conditionality we like just as the EU have done. We don't because the government is unwilling to justify any plausible figure to the British public. What the EU will offer is a degree of continuity. They won't offer a trade deal beyond an agreement to have one at some point. Brexit will be expensive because we will be going a la carte instead buying the package and because we will aim to buy influence as a substitute for membership and direct influence. It's pay to play basically.
    Yes it is pay to play - sure. But what's on offer? Full tariff free access no holds barred just like now, with full control of borders without ECJ, and some technology Norway/Sweden style border betweeen Armagh and Dundalk, or no guarantee about tariffs, full ECJ control full immigration rights as now? Or something between the two? - the more likely one would think.

    If I offer £50 without seeing the a la carte possibilities am I getting fine dining or baked potato with cheesy beans and a vertical fish finger sticking out of it? I'd like an idea before offering £50, or £40 or 99p,
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    Ishmael_Z said:



    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.

    I would regret the loss of influence, if I thought we had any. In fact the closest we got with the US was that in the Iraq war Bush temporarily granted us Most Favoured Sycophant status, and China has probably scarcely heard of us. Quite simply, we are small beer.
    Compare the relative international influence of May vs Merkel and Blair vs Schroeder.

    Now it could be just my warped view of the world but I think it's fair to say that the pendulum has swung towards the German leader. The primary reason for our decline is our political estrangement from the EU since we opted out of the Euro.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    Was Root right to declare last night? Probably depends on what happens at Lords.

    Yes. He should not be blamed. England had a 90% chance of winning under "normal" circumstances. Let's face it, the Windies deserved this. Their second team.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.
    again?

    Says who? The USA and indeed China at the G20 said post Brexit UK had a great future and they are the 2 most powerful nations on the planet
    But you don't really believe that. It's the sort of guff countries say after G20s. they would have said it about the Austrian-Hungarians if the G20 had been a thing in say, 1913.
    China has no love for the EU after it refused to recognise it as a market economy
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/816526/Angela-Merkel-EU-European-Union-China-WTO-market-economy-status/amp

    Trump backed Brexit even before the referendum
    China may not "like" the EU, but it is and a joke.
    bizarre

    if he's such an irrelevance why are the media reporting everything he does ?
    The same reason they reported ad nauseum on Love Island, with the added titillation of moral horror.
    so in other wordsevance then
    I'm talking about Brexit, though. In fact it is you who are talking irrelevantly.
    seems to me you havent much an idea of what is happening around you

    It's true I didn't see Love Island.
    So can't really comment on its "relevance" in preference to any coherent pro-Brexit argument.
    maybe thats the learning point and you should get out more and mix with ordinary people

    the Brexit vote as well as the GE simply show that the UK public have had enough of a political model which no longer commands confidence

    the UK establishment has been sent back to the drawing board and told to have a rethink

    the sooner you come to terms with it the more time you will have for love island

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-4833128/Love-Island-Rykard-Jenkins-emerges-nightclub-assault.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,

    So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for Sturgeon
    No need to make guesses about a subsample when you can actually look at the Yougov one.

    Which I'm sure you already have.
    I was talking about ICM but the yougov subsample still has the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014
    You thicko , not everybody who voted yes was an SNP voter. How stupid can one person be. There is no correlation.
  • malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How long until we go back to 25 smiling Theresa's? :D

    Evening GIN
    Wonderful new road bridge at Queensferry Malc.

    Coming home from the north east last week we went over the old bridge which would you believe I watched from my bedroom window in Edinburgh being built over 4 years and crossed it on opening day.

    Showing my age just like the old bridge
  • A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

    On the contrary, they seem to have read Article 50, but the EU27 don't, or at least are pretending not to see the bit about 'taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union'.

    "Taking into account" is woolly and ambiguous. No-one bothered to find out how the EU27 might interpret it. Instead, the Leavers said we held all the cards, a deal would be easy, we'd get numerous beneficial FTAs done in no time. It turns out they did not understand how the EU works, what drives FTA dealmaking and how complex EU withdrawal would be. They never took the time to find out.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited August 2017
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A new ICM poll shows a similar picture:

    Labour: 42% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM in mid July)

    Conservatives: 42% (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/aug/29/executive-pay-tuc-boss-says-mays-plans-to-curb-excessive-executive-pay-are-feeble-politics-live

    16:15

    It's interesting that so far Vince doesn't seem to be attracting more support for the LibDems than Tim Farron managed, but I suspect that people aren't paying that much attention to politics at the moment,

    So Tories and LDs now unchanged from the general election but Labour up 2%, presumably from the SNP? If so more bad news for Sturgeon
    No need to make guesses about a subsample when you can actually look at the Yougov one.

    Which I'm sure you already have.
    I was talking about ICM but the yougov subsample still has the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014
    You thicko , not everybody who voted yes was an SNP voter. How stupid can one person be. There is no correlation.
    No correlation at all?
  • philiph said:

    A Brit, I believe. Leavers like Davis, Boris & Fox had years to understand how things would work. They didn't bother.

    On the contrary, they seem to have read Article 50, but the EU27 don't, or at least are pretending not to see the bit about 'taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union'.
    And the EU are the ones who can't and won't negotiate.

    Junker will continue to give any papers we submit an F grade, unless they have reflected and accepted the EU position. They aren't negotiating they are confirming the position they hold, a position which is handed to the facilitators (Barnier and Co.) as the agreement that the EU 27 have come to.

    Juncker is an irrelevance.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846

    the UK establishment has been sent back to the drawing board and told to have a rethink

    the sooner you come to terms with it the more time you will have for love island

    It's interesting to see what we were thinking the last time we were thinking about Europe in any meaningful way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5t3tg6TwQk
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited August 2017
    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    Ishmael_Z said:



    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.

    I would regret the loss of influence, if I thought we had any. In fact the closest we got with the US was that in the Iraq war Bush temporarily granted us Most Favoured Sycophant status, and China has probably scarcely heard of us. Quite simply, we are small beer.
    Compare the relative international influence of May vs Merkel and Blair vs Schroeder.

    Now it could be just my warped view of the world but I think it's fair to say that the pendulum has swung towards the German leader. The primary reason for our decline is our political estrangement from the EU since we opted out of the Euro.
    the primary reason is german unity

    it's why we should have sat out 1914 and let them get on with it
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.

    I would regret the loss of influence, if I thought we had any. In fact the closest we got with the US was that in the Iraq war Bush temporarily granted us Most Favoured Sycophant status, and China has probably scarcely heard of us. Quite simply, we are small beer.
    Apart from China the US, Russia and maybe India there are not really that many bigger beers out of 190 global nations
    That reminds me of William Gibson's gag about nations so backward that they still took the concept of nationhood seriously. From the US or China, we look like 3 or 4% (if that) of EMEA.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    edited August 2017

    Ishmael_Z said:



    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.

    I would regret the loss of influence, if I thought we had any. In fact the closest we got with the US was that in the Iraq war Bush temporarily granted us Most Favoured Sycophant status, and China has probably scarcely heard of us. Quite simply, we are small beer.
    Compare the relative international influence of May vs Merkel and Blair vs Schroeder.

    Now it could be just my warped view of the world but I think it's fair to say that the pendulum has swung towards the German leader. The primary reason for our decline is our political estrangement from the EU since we opted out of the Euro.
    No.

    The primary reason is because of the slow and painful rebuilding of the German economy which has turned it into the world's second-largest exporter of manufactured goods while a certain Chancellor and PM ducked hard decisions and left our economy too far in debt and dependent on house prices and credit cards for prosperity. Neither course was inevitable or solely due to our choices on the Euro.

    Indeed, if we had been in the Euro, the whole of Europe would surely have broken to pieces when RBS went under - it as near as toucher did for Ireland.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited August 2017
    Pong said:

    Sean_F said:

    We haven't really commented on the YouGov results yet.

    Most people now think Brexit a mistake.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the economy.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for jobs.
    Most people now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS.
    Most people now think Brexit reduces our global influence.

    The pound is down, and foreign investment has declined significantly.

    Even Nabavi (usually a reliable guide to "official" Tory thinking) is now blithely talking about the expected hit to auto manufacturing.

    The government still looks to be aiming for a hard Brexit but with seemingly no accompanying policy initiatives.

    We have crippled our government and are somewhere between a laughing stock and a global irrelevance.

    Why are we doing this again?

    Assume you support remaining in the EU but the answer to your last question is because the UK voted to leave
    Yes, and the government committed to pursuing a Leave agenda, even though what "Leave" meant was never defined.

    But that was 12 months ago. It's clearer now - according to polls - that we don't actually like what "Leave" means. To a small but significant majority, any way.

    The only argument for Brexit can't be simply that we voted for it. We also voted for the Iraq war. When is it OK for a people to change their mind?

    Keir Starmer gets it and has manoeuvred appropriately. it's time to reverse ferret, in the most elegant way possible.


    People have not changed their minds about Brexit. A second vote would produce a similar result.
    I think you're right but broadly similar +-5%

    If remain won 52/48, what would that achieve?

    "Remain means remain" for the next 30 years? It would be an outcome as profoundly wrong and undemocratic as the outcome being pursued by the nutters currently in government.
    The position we had was unattractive, half in, half out, the disruptive awkward reluctant member, outside the core and disruptive. Not a sustainable position.

    Given the of vote, if that is to be followed through there is no option other than leaving the shingle market, customs union and free movement. The EU won't and can't be seen to let us keep trading without some changes.

    Remain should have gone for full integration, Euro, the whole monty. It is a far more sustainable solution than our half in half out membership.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    Doesn't light get offered?

    Hick and Thorpe won in the dark in pakistan a decade or so back....
    It can be, but as the umpires have not taken a prior reading in the match they don't have to.
    The playing conditions are now different. Flood lights were on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    surbiton said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay West Indies 2.22 £10.00 £12.20 (Just for interest)

    Bad light stops play I reckon...

    The light laws are weird and umpires interpret them over-conservatively.

    Edit: Root can keep the quicks on to force the decision too..

    Doesn't light get offered?

    Hick and Thorpe won in the dark in pakistan a decade or so back....
    It can be, but as the umpires have not taken a prior reading in the match they don't have to.
    The playing conditions are now different. Flood lights were on.
    Technically they should have taken them off when the floodlights were providing all light.

    However, despite some shocking umpiring all the way through this match, they sensibly chose not to.
  • nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    The problem is that the remainers also treat leavers with disdain and contempt with no attempt by either side to compromise.

    I have no idea how it will work out but the idea we pay a huge exit bill without explanation, have no control over immigration and the ECJ will rule on EU citizens living in the UK over the UK supreme court will not be acceptable to a good majority
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528
    edited August 2017
    nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    Indeed. The arguments for Brexit have collapsed. The only thing left is "well, we voted for it".

    I know Remainers are guilty of a world of guff too, but I search in vain for a confident articulation of Brexit today.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    Indeed. The arguments for Brexit have collapsed. The only thing left is "well, we voted for it".

    I know Remainers are guilty of a world of guff too, but I search in vain for a confident articulation of Brexit today.
    chortle

    while youre at it see if you can find a confident articulation for remain

    3 political parties couldnt find one last year and still cant
  • Great stuff from the Windies. If they can build on this win it would be fantastic for cricket.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    Indeed. The arguments for Brexit have collapsed. The only thing left is "well, we voted for it".

    I know Remainers are guilty of a world of guff too, but I search in vain for a confident articulation of Brexit today.
    chortle

    while youre at it see if you can find a confident articulation for remain

    3 political parties couldnt find one last year and still cant
    3?

    Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems, green, and??
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,528

    nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    Indeed. The arguments for Brexit have collapsed. The only thing left is "well, we voted for it".

    I know Remainers are guilty of a world of guff too, but I search in vain for a confident articulation of Brexit today.
    chortle

    while youre at it see if you can find a confident articulation for remain

    3 political parties couldnt find one last year and still cant
    So, no argument then.
  • Well I froze my nuts off at Headingley to see history made.

    Paging Liverpool fans, looks like we've accepted a €160 million bid for Judas Philippe 'Mark Reckless' Coutinho.

    What a sporting shit show of a day.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    Indeed. The arguments for Brexit have collapsed. The only thing left is "well, we voted for it".

    I know Remainers are guilty of a world of guff too, but I search in vain for a confident articulation of Brexit today.
    chortle

    while youre at it see if you can find a confident articulation for remain

    3 political parties couldnt find one last year and still cant
    So, no argument then.
    I had the argument in the run up to the vote

    maybe thats when you should have set your stall out

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    Indeed. The arguments for Brexit have collapsed. The only thing left is "well, we voted for it".

    I know Remainers are guilty of a world of guff too, but I search in vain for a confident articulation of Brexit today.
    chortle

    while youre at it see if you can find a confident articulation for remain

    3 political parties couldnt find one last year and still cant
    So, no argument then.
    Only with the political elite by the ignored and disadvantaged.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    edited August 2017
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    You're just repeating yourself. Trump is a sideshow. The US "establishment" and China are both pro-Remain.

    With the UK heading out, we undeniably lose some of our influence with the two superpowers of the 21st century.

    Some on this board positively welcome that. I do not.

    I would regret the loss of influence, if I thought we had any. In fact the closest we got with the US was that in the Iraq war Bush temporarily granted us Most Favoured Sycophant status, and China has probably scarcely heard of us. Quite simply, we are small beer.
    Compare the relative international influence of May vs Merkel and Blair vs Schroeder.

    Now it could be just my warped view of the world but I think it's fair to say that the pendulum has swung towards the German leader. The primary reason for our decline is our political estrangement from the EU since we opted out of the Euro.
    No.

    The primary reason is because of the slow and painful rebuilding of the German economy which has turned it into the world's second-largest exporter of manufactured goods while a certain Chancellor and PM ducked hard decisions and left our economy too far in debt and dependent on house prices and credit cards for prosperity. Neither course was inevitable or solely due to our choices on the Euro.

    Indeed, if we had been in the Euro, the whole of Europe would surely have broken to pieces when RBS went under - it as near as toucher did for Ireland.
    And to think I get accused of catastrophising by Brexiteers... (That scenario would have have been of the same order of magnitude as that crisis faced by the US in the same era and whatever it took would have been done.)

    Imagine however an alternative history in which Brown had continued the rebalancing that had happened under Major and Clarke and not got out the national credit card, mortgage lending had been more tightly regulated, and on top of that we had joined the Euro.

    Not only would we have been better prepared for the financial crisis but we would have permanently cemented the City's position as the financial capital of the Eurozone, we would have been more insulated from migration pressure due to wage differentials as our currency wouldn't have become overvalued as it was for too long. We would have been at the table when all the key decisions regarding the Eurozone had been taken. The dysfunctional semi-detached relationship with the EU that we ended with would have been avoided. The current crisis wouldn't have happened and we'd have been altogether more at ease with our successful and privileged position in Europe and the world.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    Well I froze my nuts off at Headingley to see history made.

    Paging Liverpool fans, looks like we've accepted a €160 million bid for Judas Philippe 'Mark Reckless' Coutinho.

    What a sporting shit show of a day.

    4-0 over arsenal

    Im still laughing
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Well I froze my nuts off at Headingley to see history made.

    Paging Liverpool fans, looks like we've accepted a €160 million bid for Judas Philippe 'Mark Reckless' Coutinho.

    What a sporting shit show of a day.

    Better out than a resentful squad member. I think that is the right decision in the end.


    All your incomers have just got more expensive!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2017
    Sandpit said:

    England, you bunch of mucking fuppets declaring early again, don’t you ever learn?

    That's A50 for you...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited August 2017
    philiph said:

    And the EU are the ones who can't and won't negotiate.

    Junker will continue to give any papers we submit an F grade, unless they have reflected and accepted the EU position. They aren't negotiating they are confirming the position they hold, a position which is handed to the facilitators (Barnier and Co.) as the agreement that the EU 27 have come to.

    Even that wouldn't be so bad, if their position were vaguely coherent. Lord only knows how they think the Irish border question can be resolved, if they refuse to discuss what border controls they would require.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,157
    edited August 2017

    nichomar said:

    I wish I could have such unwavering beief in a viewpoit that some leavers have. Their desire to leave is beyond question and yet I have still not seen an argument that tells how in the short or medium term it will make "things better". They treat people who try to explain their concerns with disdain and contempt.

    Indeed. The arguments for Brexit have collapsed. The only thing left is "well, we voted for it".
    The problem is, it's an unanswerable reason. If it were set aside, or even reversed, it would confirm every criticism of the EU as undemocratic and corrupt, determined to carry out the agenda of an elite - and let's face it, a pretty corrupt elite at that - contrary to the will of the people.

    I look forward to Brexit without enthusiasm but the prospect of civil war worries me far more. And yes, that is a real possibility. I don't think Remainers leading comfortable lives in the South of England get the very real sense of alienation and even fury from those left behind. If their views are ignored, as they have been for 40 years, they will turn violent.

    Until there is a material change - which means, until we have exited and people accept we are sufficiently worse off we have to go back in - we can't set this aside. We have therefore to play this one out.
This discussion has been closed.