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First!

US weather service has had to add extra colours to its rain maps to cope with Harvey. A new colour denotes those areas of Texas that have received over 30" of rain during the storm!

Dayton TX is closing in on 40" - think on that a moment. In 24 hours, Dayton has received Plymouth's entire average annual rainfall!

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/28/546776542/national-weather-service-adds-new-colors-so-it-can-map-harveys-rains?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20170828

Wouldn't ye know it - something else CCHQ got wrong at GE2017:

The report is likely to be read with interest by local Conservative associations, many of which were angry at the role Tory HQ played in selecting candidates in the run-up to the election.

Associations can normally choose between any candidate who has been vetted by the party and put on the official candidate list. However, because Theresa May called a snap election, Conservative campaign headquarters selected a shortlist of up to three candidates for local Tories to choose from. Some of these contained no local candidates.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/00f58672-8c28-11e7-a5d5-0066a735a5c3

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

On topic, a very interesting article Mike. It makes perfect sense that there would be a few hundred votes for a clearly local candidate up against an outsider. I can understand why a party might want to find someone a reasonably safe seat, but they should still be putting them in an area where they know the electorate - what happened to the days where a local accountant or businessman would be the Conservative candidate, and the local factory shop steward the Labour candidate? I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

Sandpit said:

I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

Given the high profile Miliband brothers (for example) I'd always (lazily) assumed it was a particular problem for Labour ("Trades Unionists & Miners replaced by College lecturers"), and while under two thirds of your candidates being 'local' is not great, its a heck of a lot better than the Tories third.....I also guess there are 'degrees' of locality - the Milibands obviously weren't by any stretch of the imagination 'local' - but I suspect a lot of the 'South East' Tories will also be from the South East...maybe just not within 12 miles.....

rkrkrk said:

Surprised that there is such a difference between the two parties.
I would not have expected Labour to be so much more local - people often say they are a metropolitan elite etc... but perhaps that's overstated. Corbyn may have had a small effect in alllowing local candidates and causing the likes of Tristram Hunt to leave?

rkrkrk said:

Surprised that there is such a difference between the two parties.
I would not have expected Labour to be so much more local - people often say they are a metropolitan elite etc... but perhaps that's overstated. Corbyn may have had a small effect in alllowing local candidates and causing the likes of Tristram Hunt to leave?

What's probably had much more effect is the Tories' imposition of 'A List' candidates from the centre from 2005 onwards, while Labour's own attempts to impose candidates has unwound since around about the same time (although isn't non-existent). That's partially due to having less powerful leaders - Corbyn's allies failed several times to install non-local favoured candidates so not down to him. Probably goes all the way back to Brown and leaders feeling less able to dictate to the party. Plus of course, the reason parachuting people in officially became widespread - namely breaking through the conservatism of local parties to get more diverse candidates with additional expertise - became less pressing, earlier, within Labour. The Tories are a phase behind Labour in that, and so will still have candidates pushed through to boost representation fairly early in their career. In Labour, many of those who were put up as candidates from 1994-2005 will now have left parliament for whatever reason and may well have been replaced by a candidate with local links who also fits in with other criteria.

Very interesting piece which has challenged several of my priors.

Another surprise to me was how low the % of locals is in the South East.
Maybe a lot of people move down and settle there later... but I've always had the impression that MPs are predominantly from South East and London.

MTimT said:

US weather service has had to add extra colours to its rain maps to cope with Harvey. A new colour denotes those areas of Texas that have received over 30" of rain during the storm!

Dayton TX is closing in on 40" - think on that a moment. In 24 hours, Dayton has received Plymouth's entire average annual rainfall!

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/28/546776542/national-weather-service-adds-new-colors-so-it-can-map-harveys-rains?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20170828

This summer that would be a weeks worth in Scotland

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

Given the high profile Miliband brothers (for example) I'd always (lazily) assumed it was a particular problem for Labour ("Trades Unionists & Miners replaced by College lecturers"), and while under two thirds of your candidates being 'local' is not great, its a heck of a lot better than the Tories third.....I also guess there are 'degrees' of locality - the Milibands obviously weren't by any stretch of the imagination 'local' - but I suspect a lot of the 'South East' Tories will also be from the South East...maybe just not within 12 miles.....

Yes, maybe it’s that the Labour examples are more obvious - Blair in Sedgefield is another famous one, clearly not being from ‘around here’ - whereas your stereotypical Tory lawyer or accountant could come from anywhere in the south of England and not look out of place. Maybe the MP for somewhere in Surrey originally came from somewhere in Berkshire or Middlesex.

Edit: as @MJW notes there was also the Cameron A-List in the 2010 election, which possibly distorts the numbers a little too.

Depends what you mean by local, doesn't it? Also depends on how you use it.

The MP for Cannock, Amanda Milling, isn't 'local' according to a strict definition but is from Burton which isn't exactly a long way off.

Mark Harper is from Swindon, but after being selected as the Forest of Dean candidate really put his heart and soul into the seat, visiting it every weekend, working as a school governor and I think doing other volunteering too.

David Drew, Labour MP for Stroud, is a slightly different case because although he's not from Stroud originally he's lived there for years and was a very successful local councillor - so he's accepted as a local.

By contrast, Parmjit Dhanda, the former MP for Gloucester, claimed to be a local because he had a house in Matson which he visited about once a month, spending most of his time in Clapham. He then misguidedly ran a smear campaign against Richard Graham for not being local even though Graham was born near Stow (there are plenty of other things he could be criticised for, but not that).

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Mark Williams isn't from Ceredigion, although he made his home in Borth and worked the seat very hard. In fact I don't think he speaks Welsh either, but it may just be he never spoke it in my hearing.

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Good morning, everyone.

Bit depressing that people be judged on where their house is rather than their competence.

I see Kim Jong-Un [I can never remember if 'Un' should be capitalised or not] has decided to reignite the pissing contest.

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Mark Williams isn't from Ceredigion, although he made his home in Borth and worked the seat very hard. In fact I don't think he speaks Welsh either, but it may just be he never spoke it in my hearing.

He doesn't speak Welsh, and was the first such to represent Ceredigion in recent times.

My guess is Labour did just well enough among Aberystwyth & Lampeter students & university staff to hand the seat to Plaid.

Aberystwyth broke up on the 3rd June, so most of its students would have left by the time of the election. Trinity St David broke up still earlier, on the 23rd May.

A more plausible suggestion is Williams' base was supported by the students, but his lack of Welsh and outsider status meant his support among permanent residents was too weak to hold the seat in their absence.

If Australia win or even draw this Test from here, they will have batted sensationally well.

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

I think that's right. Other things being equal, it's clealry better to have local roots, and Mike's overview makes that clear, but it's possible to overcome it.

My personal experience was to be selected for a seat I'd not previously heard of in an area I'd never previously visited, while living in another country 1000 miles away, against an incumbent who had represented the area for 23 years. I came over every weekend for a year, went to every event I could find, put out press releases on everything, and campaigned as a fresh face. The incumbent didn't really bother, and was rarely in the news. We got an unusually large swing.

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

One of the things I notice all the time is how low an opinion some people on the right have of capitalism. In my experience of it, it is extremely good at solving problems. So the shock to the system of Brexit might well have some very positive outcomes. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the fruit picking could be mechanised a lot more if there weren't cheap labourers for example. We might even become so efficient that we can export the produce. Holland manages to have a very profitable flower growing trade even though it has very little land - so anything is possible. I'd have rather had the shock from creating better social provision rather than leaving our major market, but even so I don't doubt that British businesses will thrive outside the EU. It might even prove to be a positive thing in the long run enabling us to become a lot stronger when we rejoin.

It seems that discriminating against people because of their postcode is OK?

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

I came through the ferry port at Newcastle yesterday morning on my way to Holland. The volume of cars waiting to be exported was stunning. I would guess more than 3000 vehicles.

I think I am right in saying that the bulk of their output goes for export.

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

The key point is that Nissan isn't making the investments to source components locally. Its suppliers are. OEMs have a lot of power over their suppliers and manufacturers tend to like local sourcing anyway, for the reasons you give.

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

You can sometimes end up with weird things like that if you try to take a more empirical approach. It wouldn't surprise me if Toynbee had written more critical articles about Labour/Corbyn than Hitchens for instance... but as you suggest - the conclusion is weird.

Mr. Richard, depressed older turnout and UKIP types voting red will have helped a lot too.

I think this is true, living in a seat or being born and raised there (or even in the same county or region) can all boost a candidate.

Being a local councillor also helps raise your profile in the area and I would encourage more Tory associations, especially in marginal seats, to pick well known councillors as candidates

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

I came through the ferry port at Newcastle yesterday morning on my way to Holland. The volume of cars waiting to be exported was stunning. I would guess more than 3000 vehicles.

I think I am right in saying that the bulk of their output goes for export.

Over 80%

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

I think that's right. Other things being equal, it's clealry better to have local roots, and Mike's overview makes that clear, but it's possible to overcome it.

My personal experience was to be selected for a seat I'd not previously heard of in an area I'd never previously visited, while living in another country 1000 miles away, against an incumbent who had represented the area for 23 years. I came over every weekend for a year, went to every event I could find, put out press releases on everything, and campaigned as a fresh face. The incumbent didn't really bother, and was rarely in the news. We got an unusually large swing.

I think Nick while you clearly campaigned hard just having the party label 'Labour' after your name was enough to give you a big boost in 1997.

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

The Labour candidate got the biggest swing and had previously stood as a local councillor thus boosting his profile even if he did not win

CornishJohn said:

rkrkrk said:

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

You can sometimes end up with weird things like that if you try to take a more empirical approach. It wouldn't surprise me if Toynbee had written more critical articles about Labour/Corbyn than Hitchens for instance... but as you suggest - the conclusion is weird.

How would Laura Kuenssberg have written critical articles of Labour? There's clearly nothing empirical about that list.

The fact that Corbyn was routinely described by her as hard/far left when no other leader and especially Farage had their views qualified thus was in my view an appalling act of partisan judgement from the political editor of the BBC. And believe me, I'm no Corbynista.

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

London I suspect is high because there will be a lot of people who have worked in London before becoming an MP...

I also wonder what role accent makes in all this... even if I moved to a constituency in Scotland and worked there for 15 years - I wouldn't sound Scottish and I suspect would be viewed as more of an outsider than someone with a Scottish accent from a different part of the country.

SNP has French and English born MPs'/MSP's, had Pakistani ones as well.

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

Look at the comments below the Tweet:

https://twitter.com/themsley/status/902119661877297153
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/902121441436602368
https://twitter.com/MatthewBlott/status/902133857981521920

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

One of the things I notice all the time is how low an opinion some people on the right have of capitalism. In my experience of it, it is extremely good at solving problems. So the shock to the system of Brexit might well have some very positive outcomes. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the fruit picking could be mechanised a lot more if there weren't cheap labourers for example. We might even become so efficient that we can export the produce. Holland manages to have a very profitable flower growing trade even though it has very little land - so anything is possible. I'd have rather had the shock from creating better social provision rather than leaving our major market, but even so I don't doubt that British businesses will thrive outside the EU. It might even prove to be a positive thing in the long run enabling us to become a lot stronger when we rejoin.

Well said - except for the end of the last sentence. There’s no way we are going to go to the effort of re-engaging with the rest of the world only to abandon international trade again in favour of a diminishing and protectionist trade bloc.

Ask any petrol station who spent a hundred grand on an automatic car wash a decade ago how their investment looks now, with the industry overrun with cheap labour. A reduction in cheap imported labour will undoubtedly lead to productivity increases and innovations in a whole load of industries.

Video of automatic fruit tree shaker, one man can harvest a tree tree in under a minute:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=8eOlM-l1114

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

Look at the comments below the Tweet:

https://twitter.com/themsley/status/902119661877297153
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/902121441436602368
https://twitter.com/MatthewBlott/status/902133857981521920

I think 'The People's Champ may be a typo....

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

Well done.

Nadine Dorries, as well.

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

I believe Angela Rayner worked as a care worker for a while.

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

I don't think that it's possible for MP's to be truly representative. By definition, people who pursue full time political careers are unrepresentative.

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

And was that ever the case? You're indulging in fantasyland. I note the Tories are now apparently the party of the WWC, so I look forward to the cohort of new MPs in 2019/20/21/22 drawn from their ranks.

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

Well done.

Nadine Dorries, as well.

Eleanor Smith in Wolverhampton SW too.

Imagine the letter Trump will eventually write.....

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/763125862925492225

CarlottaVance said:

Imagine the letter Trump will eventually write.....

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/763125862925492225

1992 was a real battle of the centrists, politically Clinton and Bush Snr are closer to each other than Trump and Sanders

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

It's indisputable that this has declined significantly in Labour from 1979 to now.

I agree that people can vote in the interest of communities they don't come from/aren't currently part of... but I think it is significant that working class representation has fallen so much.

For instance - if Labour had had a more recognisably 'working class' leader campaigning for Remain - might that have swung the EU referendum the other way?

The decline in working class representation mirrors the crumbling of the working class and what it means. What could be a more working class job than train driver - it's what every 50s kid wanted to be. Yet some train drivers these days earn as much as an MP.

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

Surely that is up to the voters to decide. Ironically the party with most working class candidates is now probably the BNP followed by UKIP and I doubt you want too many MPs from them

HYUFD said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

It's indisputable that this has declined significantly in Labour from 1979 to now.

I agree that people can vote in the interest of communities they don't come from/aren't currently part of... but I think it is significant that working class representation has fallen so much.

For instance - if Labour had had a more recognisably 'working class' leader campaigning for Remain - might that have swung the EU referendum the other way?

Alan Johnson campaigned for Remain and was working class

Alan Johnson was beaten by Harriet Harman for the Deputyship.