politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end o

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

Until there is a credible replacement who is not tainted by either Brexit or Bremain she will stay.

There's only one potential leader who is untainted by the referendum: Ken Clarke. He voted against the referendum and Article 50 so has a clean pair of hands.

He is 77 years old and has lost in three leadership elections. Although Clarke stands with the likes of Bevin, Butler and Austen Chamberlain as a giant of twentieth century politics who could and probably should have been PM, it simply isn't going to happen.

Edited after autocorrect changed Bevin to Bevan - although arguably a case could be made either way!

Ishmael_Z said:

ydoethur said:

gettingbetter said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

isam said:

At least someone thinks there is an upside to these never ending attacks. Sign of the times that guards are attacked outside Buck House and no one on here mentions it

https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/901504529795035139

Just seen on twitter the man was shouting a well known phrase as he brandished his machete outside the Palace... anyone care to guess?

'Brexit means Brexit?'

You forgot the apostrophe

Is that a genuine error or is it sarcasm?

Refers to this:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/BREXITMEANSGRAMMAR.jpg

Ah, thank you.

I thought the integrity of my inner Grammar Nazi was being questioned, and I was about to come over all SeanT. Thank you for sparing me from a really quite unpleasant fate!

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

Until there is a credible replacement who is not tainted by either Brexit or Bremain she will stay.

There's only one potential leader who is untainted by the referendum: Ken Clarke. He voted against the referendum and Article 50 so has a clean pair of hands.

He is 77 years old and has lost in three leadership elections. Although Clarke stands with the likes of Bevin, Butler and Austen Chamberlain as a giant of twentieth century politics who could and probably should have been PM, it simply isn't going to happen.

Edited after autocorrect changed Bevin to Bevan - although arguably a case could be made either way!

Adenauer was Chancellor until the age of 87 so it's not unthinkable that Clarke could serve. We will need a true elder statesman to oversee our debrexification.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

Until there is a credible replacement who is not tainted by either Brexit or Bremain she will stay.

There's only one potential leader who is untainted by the referendum: Ken Clarke. He voted against the referendum and Article 50 so has a clean pair of hands.

You're only tainted if you voted for Brexit? Okay.

If he knew even an ounce about the Tory party the he'd realise that it's the remainers that are the most tainted with the members (who get the final say). It's why Matthew Parris had a bitch fest about it today.

On the subject of Betting but not politics. Don't forget the free money on the boxing tonight. No need to watch it.

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

Until there is a credible replacement who is not tainted by either Brexit or Bremain she will stay.

There's only one potential leader who is untainted by the referendum: Ken Clarke. He voted against the referendum and Article 50 so has a clean pair of hands.

He is 77 years old and has lost in three leadership elections. Although Clarke stands with the likes of Bevin, Butler and Austen Chamberlain as a giant of twentieth century politics who could and probably should have been PM, it simply isn't going to happen.

Edited after autocorrect changed Bevin to Bevan - although arguably a case could be made either way!

Adenauer was Chancellor until the age of 87 so it's not unthinkable that Clarke could serve. We will need a true elder statesman to oversee our debrexification.

He was already there. Clarke is not.

The oldest UK politician to become PM for the first time was Palmerston (71 in 1855) the oldest ever Gladstone (82 in 1892) and the oldest in the twentieth century Churchill (76 in 1951). All of them were either in cabinet or leading the opposition at the time and Clarke is not. Churchill and Gladstone both later accepted they had been too old and unfit to be PM when appointed for the final time, and were carrying on solely out of ego (helped in Gladstone's case by the weakness of his possible successors).

Just because of Trump/Clinton and May/Corbyn doesn't mean we have suddenly jumped back from the age of youth to the age of age. There are practical considerations too (which is why Sanders and Biden will not be running in 2020). The election of Cable as leader as much as anything else shows the Liberal Democrats are happy to be protestors on the fringe. Clarke's time has now gone. A remarkable career, but it will not be crowned with No. 10.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/901531869052895232

ydoethur said:

...I was about to come over all SeanT...

Worst. Porn. Evah.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/901531869052895232

The Daniel Hannan approach? Really? What happens if the rest of the EU says no? They're already proving sticky enough about tariff-free trade.

While the previous policy may have been unpopular with Labour voters at least it had some grasp of the realities and problems of the situation. This one, on the other hand...

Be in favour of not leaving, getting the referendum result reversed, by all means. But to accept that we're leaving and then to pretend we can stay in - does he take us all for fools?

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

...I was about to come over all SeanT...

Worst. Porn. Evah.

I realised he unfortunate double entendre just too late to correct it!

It could have been worse. I could have said I would 'come all over...'

Ishmael_Z said:

Alistair said:

Is anyone here backing McGregor?

Mayweather definitely won the weigh-in: “Weight doesn’t win fights, fighting wins fights,” he said. “It won’t go the distance, mark my words.”

Uh oh.

I have based my total confidence on Mayweather just doing what he always does.

He's not exactly a KO specialist is he?

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

...I was about to come over all SeanT...

Worst. Porn. Evah.

I realised he unfortunate double entendre just too late to correct it!

It could have been worse. I could have said I would 'come all over...'

Perhaps not - see my comment above...

Yes, very good. It conjures a rather strange image though...

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

...I was about to come over all SeanT...

Worst. Porn. Evah.

I realised he unfortunate double entendre just too late to correct it!

It could have been worse. I could have said I would 'come all over...'

Don't apologise: it was the funniest (albeit unintentional) phrase all day...

Not a field of stiff competition though, was it?

Ok, OK, I'll stop, I need to get some sleep anyway.

Goodnight and please don't have nightmares!

Alistair said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Alistair said:

Is anyone here backing McGregor?

Mayweather definitely won the weigh-in: “Weight doesn’t win fights, fighting wins fights,” he said. “It won’t go the distance, mark my words.”

Uh oh.

I have based my total confidence on Mayweather just doing what he always does.

He's not exactly a KO specialist is he?

It's an entertainment event at the end of the day. Fun, but all about the money. Let's hope it opens up other opportunities. Dolph Lundhren vs Jet Li. Stallone vs Schwarzenegger. Daniel Craig vs Tom Hardy. Could be a goldmine.

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic

***** Betting Post *****

Although John Kasich has strongly denied the recent and widely reported story from the Washington Examiner that he may launch a primary challenge against Trump in 2020, some might consider that there's seldom smoke without fire and accordingly decide to risk a few quid by backing him to become the next POTUS at the best odds currently available of 66/1 with Bet365/SkyBet/Marathon. Imho he came across as a very strong candidate last year but badly messed-up his timing in running for the GOP nomination by failing to secure sufficient financial support at the key stage of the campaign.

Decent punt, as a trading bet.
(& a decent guy.)

isam said:

I blame Brexit

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/901409402237976581

Well obviously he should have punched her in the face before proposing.

Recidivist said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

Until there is a credible replacement who is not tainted by either Brexit or Bremain she will stay.

There's only one potential leader who is untainted by the referendum: Ken Clarke. He voted against the referendum and Article 50 so has a clean pair of hands.

You're only tainted if you voted for Brexit? Okay.

I never intend to vote for a Brexit supporting candidate.

But you do by accident?

CopperSulphate said:

Alistair said:

Is anyone here backing McGregor?

I know zero about boxing, but it's a fight between one of the best boxers ever and a bloke who has never had a boxing match before in his life.

It's bizarre.

If Roger Federer was to face Son Wan Ho at a badminton match no one would think he had a chance of winning but make it a combat sport and suddenly the guy who's never competed in the discipline is only 6/1 to win. Bonkers.

Exit, no deal should have been the default position. This whole process aimed at hanging on to as much as possible of a settlement that never even favoured Britain is a farce.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MikeSmithson said:

TMay staying - the Tory git to LAB

You think she should step down now, or should have stepped down on 9 June? Either way I don't agree, because the improvement in PMhood would have to be great enough to offset the charge that the Tories are wasting invaluable time (if they have a contest) or that here we have yet another mandateless appointee (if they coronate). We have in effect a quadrumvirate at the moment where TMay is scarcely even prima inter pares. Passing the crown round among the quadrumvirs achieves nothing.

The Tories have a rubbish leader - go look at her terrible personal ratings.

She is simply unable to relate to people.

Yes, of course, that was why Labour won the recent election!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

Don't make yourself look so stupid.

CON had majority

TMay called election to get bigger one

CON lost majority

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MikeSmithson said:

TMay staying - the Tory git to LAB

You think she should step down now, or should have stepped down on 9 June? Either way I don't agree, because the improvement in PMhood would have to be great enough to offset the charge that the Tories are wasting invaluable time (if they have a contest) or that here we have yet another mandateless appointee (if they coronate). We have in effect a quadrumvirate at the moment where TMay is scarcely even prima inter pares. Passing the crown round among the quadrumvirs achieves nothing.

The Tories have a rubbish leader - go look at her terrible personal ratings.

She is simply unable to relate to people.

Yes, of course, that was why Labour won the recent election!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

Don't make yourself look so stupid.

CON had majority

TMay called election to get bigger one

CON lost majority

And Labour won a massive majority, I stayed up on Election Night just to watch that

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

May will stay at least until Brexit negotiations are over in March 2019, then and only then will she step down and Boris and Davis likely face each other in the membership ballot. Boris has no interest in challenging until Brexit is completed, he wants to take the leadership with clean hands and free of any compromises or unpopular outcomes emerging from any deal and Davis of course has his hands full negotiating the deal.

Of course May's 'failure' still secured the Tories 42% of the vote, their highest voteshare in 25 years, even if she was obviously disappointed to have to do a deal with her allies in the DUP to obtain a parliamentary majority rather than govern with an increased overall majority

There are a remarkable couple of thoughts in that, although I agree that unless there’s a vote of no confidence in the Party, she’ll stay. The first is that Boris has clean hands; mucky little toerag is how I’d describe him. Secondly the description of the DUP as her allies; they’re no-one’s allies except their own. If someone like the late John Smith or one of the Millibands had been leader they’d have been in there supporting like rats up a drainpipe.

Well you are not a conservative so it is no surprise you are no fan of Boris.

The DUP are the Democratic UNIONIST Party of course they are natural allies of the Conservative and UNIONIST Party and not Labour. Labour's historic allies in Northern Ireland are the Social Democratic and LABOUR Party

That’s true about the SDLP, but the DUP aren’t particularly enamoured of traditional Tories either. That’s why they are there. AIUI they started off, at least as a sort of Unionist Methodists, as in the Labour Party being a coalition of Methodism and Marxism.

And yes, I know the Rev Ian Paisley couldn’t be described, in today’s terms, as a Methodist, but his views were a lot closer to Methodist Unionists than to the Anglican Tories

The DUP grew out of the Ulster Unionist Party which in turn grew out of the Tory Party

The DUP developed separately from, and in opposition to, the UUP. It got some detectors, but it was the political wing of the Free Presbyterian Church, till well into the 1980's. After the GFA, high profile UUP members started switching to it.

The DUP evolved from Paisley's Protestant Unionist Party, dating from 1966. The DUP was founded in 1970.

surbiton said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/901531869052895232

It was always coming. Better late than never. Absolutely brilliant.

All the PB Tories who kept telling us Corbyn was a hard-Brexiter.

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/901549376379768832

williamglenn said:

surbiton said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/901531869052895232

It was always coming. Better late than never. Absolutely brilliant.

All the PB Tories who kept telling us Corbyn was a hard-Brexiter.

twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/901549376379768832

Almost as deluded as you are

https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/901542193848086532

@gabyhinsliff: Interesting btw that Lab is moving on Brexit only now threat of 2nd snap gen election is fading (ie now they're less likely to be put in..

Yes, this is very encouraging news. It's good that at long last one of the major parties now seems to be thinking in terms of what is good for the UK economy.

ThomasNashe said:

Yes, this is very encouraging news. It's good that at long last one of the major parties now seems to be thinking in terms of what is good for the UK economy.

Yes but uncertainty is going to go on for years - not good for business

Either stay or leave

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MikeSmithson said:

TMay staying - the Tory git to LAB

You think she should step down now, or should have stepped down on 9 June? Either way I don't agree, because the improvement in PMhood would have to be great enough to offset the charge that the Tories are wasting invaluable time (if they have a contest) or that here we have yet another mandateless appointee (if they coronate). We have in effect a quadrumvirate at the moment where TMay is scarcely even prima inter pares. Passing the crown round among the quadrumvirs achieves nothing.

The Tories have a rubbish leader - go look at her terrible personal ratings.

She is simply unable to relate to people.

Yes, of course, that was why Labour won the recent election!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

Don't make yourself look so stupid.

CON had majority

TMay called election to get bigger one

CON lost majority

There's a difference between failing to achieve your objectives and losing.

Theresa May is in a worse position than she was before the election. But she is still PM. A Pyrrhic victory (with apologies to Pyrrhus) but a victory nonetheless

You can tell Theresa May is a disaster for the country and the party, IDS wants her to remain as PM/Leader.

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MikeSmithson said:

TMay staying - the Tory git to LAB

You think she should step down now, or should have stepped down on 9 June? Either way I don't agree, because the improvement in PMhood would have to be great enough to offset the charge that the Tories are wasting invaluable time (if they have a contest) or that here we have yet another mandateless appointee (if they coronate). We have in effect a quadrumvirate at the moment where TMay is scarcely even prima inter pares. Passing the crown round among the quadrumvirs achieves nothing.

The Tories have a rubbish leader - go look at her terrible personal ratings.

She is simply unable to relate to people.

Yes, of course, that was why Labour won the recent election!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

Don't make yourself look so stupid.

CON had majority

TMay called election to get bigger one

CON lost majority

There's a difference between failing to achieve your objectives and losing.

Theresa May is in a worse position than she was before the election. But she is still PM. A Pyrrhic victory (with apologies to Pyrrhus) but a victory nonetheless

The Tories had a majority which through TMay's actions it lost. That's a simple fact however you try to spin it.

MikeSmithson said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MikeSmithson said:

TMay staying - the Tory git to LAB

You think she should step down now, or should have stepped down on 9 June? Either way I don't agree, because the improvement in PMhood would have to be great enough to offset the charge that the Tories are wasting invaluable time (if they have a contest) or that here we have yet another mandateless appointee (if they coronate). We have in effect a quadrumvirate at the moment where TMay is scarcely even prima inter pares. Passing the crown round among the quadrumvirs achieves nothing.

The Tories have a rubbish leader - go look at her terrible personal ratings.

She is simply unable to relate to people.

Yes, of course, that was why Labour won the recent election!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

Don't make yourself look so stupid.

CON had majority

TMay called election to get bigger one

CON lost majority

There's a difference between failing to achieve your objectives and losing.

Theresa May is in a worse position than she was before the election. But she is still PM. A Pyrrhic victory (with apologies to Pyrrhus) but a victory nonetheless

The Tories had a majority which through TMay's actions it lost. That's a simple fact however you try to spin it.

Indeed, they lost their majority. That was a setback. But they still won the election - after all they are the government.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just rejoice at this news, but not soon enough.

Mirror reports that Theresa May to has pencilled in Friday, August 30, 2019 as the day she will quit as Prime Minister.

So she's now officially a dead duck. If the government accepts that Article 50 deal won't include the final long term relationship, then why should she be the one to lead negotiations with the EU?

So the mirror is the official spokesman for the conservative party. You do talk daft at times

https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/901558437808623616

There is a rather unfortunate juxtaposition on the front page of tomorrow's Sunday Express:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/901545087406157825

MikeSmithson said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MikeSmithson said:

TMay staying - the Tory git to LAB

You think she should step down now, or should have stepped down on 9 June? Either way I don't agree, because the improvement in PMhood would have to be great enough to offset the charge that the Tories are wasting invaluable time (if they have a contest) or that here we have yet another mandateless appointee (if they coronate). We have in effect a quadrumvirate at the moment where TMay is scarcely even prima inter pares. Passing the crown round among the quadrumvirs achieves nothing.

The Tories have a rubbish leader - go look at her terrible personal ratings.

She is simply unable to relate to people.

Yes, of course, that was why Labour won the recent election!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

Don't make yourself look so stupid.

CON had majority

TMay called election to get bigger one

CON lost majority

There's a difference between failing to achieve your objectives and losing.

Theresa May is in a worse position than she was before the election. But she is still PM. A Pyrrhic victory (with apologies to Pyrrhus) but a victory nonetheless

The Tories had a majority which through TMay's actions it lost. That's a simple fact however you try to spin it.

May failed but didn't lose the election.

May lost her aura of strength and exposed weaknesses.

What the consequences will be we don't know yet.

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/901560009510842374

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MikeSmithson said:

TMay staying - the Tory git to LAB

You think she should step down now, or should have stepped down on 9 June? Either way I don't agree, because the improvement in PMhood would have to be great enough to offset the charge that the Tories are wasting invaluable time (if they have a contest) or that here we have yet another mandateless appointee (if they coronate). We have in effect a quadrumvirate at the moment where TMay is scarcely even prima inter pares. Passing the crown round among the quadrumvirs achieves nothing.

The Tories have a rubbish leader - go look at her terrible personal ratings.

She is simply unable to relate to people.

Yes, of course, that was why Labour won the recent election!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857

Don't make yourself look so stupid.

CON had majority

TMay called election to get bigger one

CON lost majority

There's a difference between failing to achieve your objectives and losing.

Theresa May is in a worse position than she was before the election. But she is still PM. A Pyrrhic victory (with apologies to Pyrrhus) but a victory nonetheless

More of a Gergovia or Dyrrhachium:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gergovia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dyrrhachium_(48_BC)

Whether May can recover as Caesar did we don't know.

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/901542944691322882

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/901542944691322882

The new headbangers trying to repeat the massive success of the Leadsom march? Guffaw.

Quincel said:

Alistair said:

Is anyone here backing McGregor?

Hasn't the head of William Hill (or some senior trader) said something like 'If we weren't having to broadly balance the book we'd price Mayweather at 1/100'? I'm just deciding how much I'm willing to risk, given that it seems free money but I know nothing about boxing.

Just 240 odd for me. In the middle of a mortgage application to move, would be more in normal times..

I suppose the EU will feel emboldened to raise its demands, and Labour will now be shouting at the government that the demands must be paid. And of course mass immigration is to continue, the Irish must be paid off, food prices must remain high to support the EU farmers and free trade with the rest of the world won't be allowed.

When the exit negotations tapes are leaked, and I think that is a certainty, I suspect the EU negotiators will look like a bunch of crooks. And Labour will be supporting them?

PAW said:

I suppose the EU will feel emboldened to raise its demands, and Labour will now be shouting at the government that the demands must be paid. And of course mass immigration is to continue, the Irish must be paid off, food prices must remain high to support the EU farmers and free trade with the rest of the world won't be allowed.

When the exit negotations tapes are leaked, and I think that is a certainty, I suspect the EU negotiators will look like a bunch of crooks. And Labour will be supporting them?

You been on the juice my friend? Brexit exit is on the cards now - thank f*cking God!

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

May. Stable and stagnant.

Hope is a weapon. Survival is victory.

In space nobody can hear you scream

Lt. Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?
Admiral TSE: Granted.
Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.
TSE: And why not?
Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.
TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every Prime Minister may face. Has that never occurred to you?
Theresa: No, sir, it has not.
TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?
Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.
TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.

If Labour sabotaged BREXIT I could not vote Labour ever again

bigjohnowls said:

If Labour sabotaged BREXIT I could not vote Labour ever again

Sad to hear but this is politics. The overwhelming majority who voted Labour at the last GE were very pro-EU. This is just a realisation of that very important fact. Brexit as we know it is dying...

More single market pressure on the government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/26/japan-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-visit

Japan to seek Brexit reassurances from Theresa May