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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Bollocks.
    Fighting the last war always works - especially when you lost it!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068

    So that's a 'Yes' - May was rated more highly than her party - a position not sustained on greater exposure (or lack of it) - but thats where they started - so it was based on data you don't like.......Sturgeon had pulled a similar trick in 2015.
    Though clearly not in 2017
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852

    Fighting the last war always works - especially when you lost it!
    The last war was the war to strengthen Theresa May's hand. How did it go again?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    isam said:

    He was still one of the main men of Remain, who were heavy odds on favourites throughout, had all the levers of power at their disposal... and lost

    Mr 'Instant Recession' and 'Punishment Budget' - its striking how his acolytes can't see he's a completely busted flush....
  • Bollocks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_MzHFiu-6Y
    Interesting that the video says the money "could be spent on our priorities like the NHS" not "every penny will be spent on the NHS".
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    Bollocks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_MzHFiu-6Y
    As with FPTP by elections, good second places are useless in a referendum. The winner takes it all. Remain need to learn this.

    At least you got rid of UKIP!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852


    Mr 'Instant Recession' and 'Punishment Budget' - its striking how his acolytes can't see he's a completely busted flush....
    This argument is contingent on having a government 'making a success of Brexit'. They are not, and they cannot.
  • tlg86 said:

    I don't think the 100k figure for students not going home is an annual figure.
    So what time period is it for and how much of the annual figure is accounted for by student changes rather than Brexit?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852

    Interesting that the video says the money "could be spent on our priorities like the NHS" not "every penny will be spent on the NHS".
    https://www.twitter.com/vote_leave/status/728537630166659073
  • isam said:

    You think her plan was to overstate immigration at a time when her party was under attack on immigration, and she was in charge of it, so that when she became leader, which looked unlikely to ever happen at the time, she could then massage the figures downwards?

    That is cunning, I thought she was meant to be shit!

    Her plan was to use being tough on immigration to improve her standing among Tory party members. It worked for a while. But because she is shit she's been caught out.

  • isam said:

    As with FPTP by elections, good second places are useless in a referendum. The winner takes it all. Remain need to learn this.

    At least you got rid of UKIP!
    Two birds one stone :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    The numbers shouldn't be removed as it is an international standard. An alternative perhaps would be to report both with and without?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    surbiton said:

    Basically, she is a liar !
    How did she know it wasn't true if the figures were only released days ago?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    This argument is contingent on having a government 'making a success of Brexit'. They are not, and they cannot.
    He's a busted flush politically what ever the outcome of BREXIT - he may well end up a more successful free-sheet local newspaper editor than politician.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    Her plan was to use being tough on immigration to improve her standing among Tory party members. It worked for a while. But because she is shit she's been caught out.

    But that doesn't answer the point of why she would inflate the immigration figures as Hom Sec. That would make her look weak on immigration among the Tory members she thought she would need to become leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068

    Her plan was to use being tough on immigration to improve her standing among Tory party members. It worked for a while. But because she is shit she's been caught out.

    Yet 42% voted for it and even Corbyn has accepted free movement must end
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    https://www.twitter.com/vote_leave/status/728537630166659073
    Neither of those sides.

    Next.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,551
    Pulpstar said:

    I thought he might pursue a less interventionist policy on the world stage (Which I think would do the USA good to be frank given their crazily inflated veteran budget) but seems he is even more hawkish than the Neo-Cons he derided in the debates now.
    I'd say I wouldn't vote for him now, but
    a) I don't have a vote
    b) I'd have ticked the Hillary box anyway :)
    "even more hawkish than the Neo-Cons"

    He doesn't have a clue. I doubt he would even know what you are referring to. He doesn't keep one idea in his head longer than a goldfish and seems to decide policy based on the late night cable news channels and twitter.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    edited August 2017

    Two birds one stone :D
    :blush:

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Someone who already has French & German nationality complains about becoming British too - but at least she's done her homework:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41053684
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    For ABBA loving Remain supporters.

    I don't wanna talk
    About things we've gone through
    Though it's hurting me
    Now it's history
    I've played all my cards
    And that's what you've done too
    Nothing more to say
    No more ace to play

    The winner takes it all
    The loser's standing small
    Beside the victory
    That's UK destiny

    I was in EU arms
    Thinking I belonged there
    I figured it made sense
    Building me a fence
    Building me a home
    Thinking I'd be strong there
    But I was a fool
    Playing by the rules

    The gods may throw the dice
    Their minds as cold as ice
    And someone way down here
    Loses someone dear
    The winner takes it all
    The loser has to fall
    It's simple and it's plain
    Why should I complain?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    isam said:

    But that doesn't answer the point of why she would inflate the immigration figures as Hom Sec. That would make her look weak on immigration among the Tory members she thought she would need to become leader.
    Their visceral loathing of May has rendered some otherwise sensible posters strangers to reason.
  • If students over staying their visas is only 2,000 or so a year, then why does it matter if we include them or exclude them in the immigration figures? If all of those coming leave at the end of their studies then the net figure will be approximately zero in the scheme of things.

    Under the proposals to exclude them, would we add back in those students transferring to other visa categories? If not, it seems like a very dodgy exclusion.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,551

    If students over staying their visas is only 2,000 or so a year, then why does it matter if we include them or exclude them in the immigration figures? If all of those coming leave at the end of their studies then the net figure will be approximately zero in the scheme of things.

    Under the proposals to exclude them, would we add back in those students transferring to other visa categories? If not, it seems like a very dodgy exclusion.

    See my last post!
  • https://www.twitter.com/vote_leave/status/728537630166659073
    You are aware of the difference between "thinks we should" and "will", presumably?
  • The last war was the war to strengthen Theresa May's hand. How did it go again?
    She got an extra two years of Conservative government.

  • Their visceral loathing of May has rendered some otherwise sensible posters strangers to reason.

    I talked about this the other day. It's Chapman syndrome - the replacement of all ability to reason with visceral loathing of anyone connected to Brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    You are aware of the difference between "thinks we should" and "will", presumably?
    Apparently not, he often says the UK "will" join the euro. :smiley:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537
    Have a read of the Office for Statistics Regulation's report on student migration:

    https://tinyurl.com/ybpywy63

    This paragraph stands out:

    The ONS estimate of non-EU student immigration shows good coherence with other statistics,
    such as the Home Office visa data. In spite of definitional differences between the two data
    sources, in general, the trends align. This helps give users confidence that the IPS is reliably
    capturing the scale of non-EU student immigration and that the estimate is a high-quality
    measure, in line with Principle 4, Practice 3 of the Code. In contrast, the estimate of former student emigration is the only source of information about when a student leaves the UK; the other sources of information do not confirm the point at which the student has the left the country. This lack of ability to verify and triangulate the estimate means that assurances cannot be given to provide the same level of confidence in the former-student emigration figures.


    Basically, the OSR is questioning the former student emigration figures because they don't trust the International Passenger Survey (IPS). What I'd like to know is, why do the OSR think that the IPS would be any less reliable for students leaving after finishing their studies that anyone else? Perhaps there would be an issue with students not identifying as students as they leave but I doubt it.

    I have to say, that report looks like it's been done to cause a bit of a storm.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Allan said:

    For ABBA loving Remain supporters.

    I don't wanna talk
    About things we've gone through
    Though it's hurting me
    Now it's history
    I've played all my cards
    And that's what you've done too
    Nothing more to say
    No more ace to play

    The winner takes it all
    The loser's standing small
    Beside the victory
    That's UK destiny

    I was in EU arms
    Thinking I belonged there
    I figured it made sense
    Building me a fence
    Building me a home
    Thinking I'd be strong there
    But I was a fool
    Playing by the rules

    The gods may throw the dice
    Their minds as cold as ice
    And someone way down here
    Loses someone dear
    The winner takes it all
    The loser has to fall
    It's simple and it's plain
    Why should I complain?

    An ABBA song more appropriate for the EU would be Money,Money, Money
  • One of May's fatal flaws is that she believes she can easily deal with issues with a single cunning move. So she thinks she's killed the Cameroons with a brutal reshuffle, but they are still there and angry. She thinks she can get her mandate by calling an election, but forgets to run a vigorous, disciplined campaign. She believes she can dictate terms to Europe, and seems surprised that it's a long process and that our neighbours have been doing a bit of work on their strategy while she was d1cking about not running an election campaign to speak of.
    It was not out of revenge, but out of the sentiment that George Osborne would have been a petty force of instability in the cabinet, consumed with his own ambition. I was unsure whether it was the right call to sack him at the time, but his petty, ambition-consumed, instability-causing behaviour since being Standard Editor shows it was the right call. Since becoming editor he has clearly put his own score-settling and vengeance above of the need to keep Corbyn's radical socialism out of government.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    I talked about this the other day. It's Chapman syndrome - the replacement of all ability to reason with visceral loathing of anyone connected to Brexit.
    Oh well, history will be changed by the 9/9 demo! I expect they'll all be going!
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262

    I talked about this the other day. It's Chapman syndrome - the replacement of all ability to reason with visceral loathing of anyone connected to Brexit.
    Brexititus?
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262

    An ABBA song more appropriate for the EU would be Money,Money, Money
    Some Remain supporters need a period of mourning.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I'm confused with the immigration numbers.

    Heard reports that the student numbers were over-inflated by 100k.

    However also heard reports that net migration is down by nearly 100k "due to Brexit".

    If the student numbers were now reported as 100k less then net migration is essentially unchanged on last year so no has there been no Brexit change afterall? Or are the student numbers still recorded as 100k in which case do we need to change the net migration figure?

    The drop in Non EU students coming last year was about 20 000. Most of the drop in net migtation was because A8 EU citizens now come and go in equal numbers.

    The net migration figures for the last year were roughly:

    EU: +115 000
    Non EU: +145 000
    UK: - 50 000
  • isam said:

    But that doesn't answer the point of why she would inflate the immigration figures as Hom Sec. That would make her look weak on immigration among the Tory members she thought she would need to become leader.

    She did not inflate them. She saw an opportunity to talk tough and because of that did not act on the fact that the original numbers were completely wrong. Why else would she conceal numbers that would have been very helpful to the government?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    edited August 2017

    She did not inflate them. She saw an opportunity to talk tough and because of that did not act on the fact that the original numbers were completely wrong. Why else would she conceal numbers that would have been very helpful to the government?

    So why did she sit on good news in 2015 again? I honestly don't follow

    You are saying she wanted immigration to look higher than it was, even though it was her job to control it, so that if she ever became PM, she could reveal the true numbers and look good?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    Have a read of the Office for Statistics Regulation's report on student migration:

    https://tinyurl.com/ybpywy63

    This paragraph stands out:

    The ONS estimate of non-EU student immigration shows good coherence with other statistics,
    such as the Home Office visa data. In spite of definitional differences between the two data
    sources, in general, the trends align. This helps give users confidence that the IPS is reliably
    capturing the scale of non-EU student immigration and that the estimate is a high-quality
    measure, in line with Principle 4, Practice 3 of the Code. In contrast, the estimate of former student emigration is the only source of information about when a student leaves the UK; the other sources of information do not confirm the point at which the student has the left the country. This lack of ability to verify and triangulate the estimate means that assurances cannot be given to provide the same level of confidence in the former-student emigration figures.


    Basically, the OSR is questioning the former student emigration figures because they don't trust the International Passenger Survey (IPS). What I'd like to know is, why do the OSR think that the IPS would be any less reliable for students leaving after finishing their studies that anyone else? Perhaps there would be an issue with students not identifying as students as they leave but I doubt it.

    I have to say, that report looks like it's been done to cause a bit of a storm.

    The really interesting question is: If the International passenger survey is wrong on students, how reliable are its figures for other groups?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Arguably, the fact foreign students DON'T stay on is the concern. These are young, well educated, well connected, motivated and highly marketable people.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited August 2017
    isam said:

    So why did she sit on good news in 2015 again? I honestly don't follow

    You are saying she wanted immigration to look higher than it was, even though it was her job to control it, so that if she ever became PM, she could reveal the true numbers and look good?

    Because it would have meant a lost opportunity to look and talk tough. Without a problem there could be no posturing. She was never a team player.

    As she is ultimately not very good, she did not think through the consequences of the true figures becoming known.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    edited August 2017
    Allan said:

    Brexititus?
    Other symptoms include putting words in the mouths of those one disagrees with, assuming Leavers are horrid, and continually thinking that the EU has us over a barrel.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    Because it would have meant a lost opportunity to look and talk tough. Without a problem there could be no posturing. She was never a team player.

    But how could she have known she would get the opportunity to look and talk tough?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,551

    The really interesting question is: If the International passenger survey is wrong on students, how reliable are its figures for other groups?
    I am not up-to-speed with the details of exiting the UK. But surely every passport is scanned?
    So we should know exactly who has left the country?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    I am not up-to-speed with the details of exiting the UK. But surely every passport is scanned?
    So we should know exactly who has left the country?
    Don't think so - at least definitely not on ferries or Eurotunnel.
  • I am not up-to-speed with the details of exiting the UK. But surely every passport is scanned?
    So we should know exactly who has left the country?
    No that's not the case though it will change soon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Because it would have meant a lost opportunity to look and talk tough. Without a problem there could be no posturing. She was never a team player.

    As she is ultimately not very good, she did not think through the consequences of the true figures becoming known.
    You make it sound like she suppressed the true figures.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537

    The really interesting question is: If the International passenger survey is wrong on students, how reliable are its figures for other groups?

    That's easy to answer. The 2011 mid year estimate was 63,285,100. The 2011 Census estimate was 63,181,775. So in the 10 years between 2001 and 2011, the mid year estimates were pretty good.

    Of course, things might have changed since 2011.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Whilst this is becoming boring in the extreme whY did governments in previous times not limit immigration from outside the EU when it was clearly their responsibility?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    No that's not the case though it will change soon.
    Apparently it started a few years ago

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-32205970

  • The drop in Non EU students coming last year was about 20 000. Most of the drop in net migtation was because A8 EU citizens now come and go in equal numbers.

    The net migration figures for the last year were roughly:

    EU: +115 000
    Non EU: +145 000
    UK: - 50 000
    Once we are outside the EU, cutting immigration is easy. We have gross emigration of about 150k and gross immigration of about 500k. Half of that immigration is high skill and the other half is low skill if you look at jobs data. Stop the inflow of 250k low skill immigrants and you have your 100k a year target. This means tightening the visa system on non-EU work migration to truly limit it to high skill, applying that to EU workers, and increasing the income to sponsor family migrants to the £35k a year needed to be a net tax payer. We'd still have all the skills that we actually need and we'd hit the promise. Clearly communicate this is what you're doing and you'd get the support of almost all Conservative voters and a big chunk of the Labour base.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,551

    No that's not the case though it will change soon.
    No wonder we don't know who has left the country. As I say, I'm not up to speed. Haven't been abroad in years for various reasons.
  • nichomar said:

    Whilst this is becoming boring in the extreme whY did governments in previous times not limit immigration from outside the EU when it was clearly their responsibility?

    Because they wanted to rub the right's nose in diversity. It's the same reason Blair got rid of exit checks in 1998. He didn't want the true facts known.
  • FF43 said:

    Arguably, the fact foreign students DON'T stay on is the concern. These are young, well educated, well connected, motivated and highly marketable people.

    The numbers are just about those overstaying their visas, not people transferring to new visa categories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    No wonder we don't know who has left the country. As I say, I'm not up to speed. Haven't been abroad in years for various reasons.
    I think the scheme is up and running (see my link below). I am not sure why it wasn't done before though.. all you need is a database with one table for arrivals, and another for departure, each storing the passport number, date, and port of entry. Why is that so complicated?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,551
    nichomar said:

    Whilst this is becoming boring in the extreme whY did governments in previous times not limit immigration from outside the EU when it was clearly their responsibility?

    A profoundly important question. The only answer is they choose not to because it was a) bad economics b) bloody difficult and expensive to enforce c) went against broader policy of being an open country d) business would kick up a right fuss.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,551
    RobD said:

    I think the scheme is up and running (see my link below). I am not sure why it wasn't done before though.. all you need is a database with one table for arrivals, and another for departure, each storing the passport number, date, and port of entry. Why is that so complicated?
    Home Office. Not fit for purpose as Charles Clarke once said.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,551
    I'm off out now. Play nicely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Interesting from James Landale on Boris in Libya:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-41049074
  • RobD said:

    Apparently it started a few years ago

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-32205970
    Weird that article was on the BBC News homepage earlier this week. Didn't read that it was 2 years old already!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    nichomar said:

    Whilst this is becoming boring in the extreme whY did governments in previous times not limit immigration from outside the EU when it was clearly their responsibility?

    May suspended civil servants back in 2011 over a border row regarding passport checks of non EU nationals.She blamed them for relaxing checks to ease queues.Governments take less responsibility and say the agency is at fault .
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    The Foreign Office really would like a bit of stability just at the moment. I suspect they'll get it, no matter what the spin balloon might look like.

    May clearly will face a leadership challenge at some point, but anyone that challenges her now simply self-defines themselves as deeply stupid (Assuming that the challenger isn't offering a pretty monumental change of policy).

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    A profoundly important question. The only answer is they choose not to because it was a) bad economics b) bloody difficult and expensive to enforce c) went against broader policy of being an open country d) business would kick up a right fuss.
    I suppose the answer to my own question is that the Weatminster elite were unaware of the actual impact it was having on communities and the Labour MP's representing those areas had become dependant on their votes.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Home Office. Not fit for purpose as Charles Clarke once said.
    I thought it was John Reid.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2017

    I am not up-to-speed with the details of exiting the UK. But surely every passport is scanned?
    So we should know exactly who has left the country?
    Passports are not checked by UK Borders on leaving, however they are checked by airlines and other carriers. That is the source of the exit data now.

    It is likely that those on student visas changing to other visa types are missing from the supposedly net neutral figures.

    For Brexit to work as intended we do need a substantial increase in HM Customs and Border Agency staff, and for more Civil Servants to plough through up to 3 million extra cases applying for permanent status. There is no sign of this, or indeed on many other issues such as medicines licencing etc. If Brexit is not to be cliff edge, then this needs doing now, or we have to swallow the EU deal to keep the wheels turning.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    Yorkcity said:

    I thought it was John Reid.
    A ghastly phrase. John Reid.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    A very interesting twitter thread on here:

    https://twitter.com/conspirator0/status/900158639884955648
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    Passports are not checked by UK Borders on leaving, however they are checked by airlines and other carriers. That is the source of the exit data now.

    It is likely that those on student visas changing to other visa types are missing from the supposedly net neutral figures.

    For Brexit to work as intended we do need a substantial increase in HM Customs and Border Agency staff, and for more Civil Servants to plough through up to 3 million extra cases applying for permanent status. There is no sign of this, or indeed on many other issues such as medicines licencing etc. If Brexit is not to be cliff edge, then this needs doing now, or we have to swallow the EU deal to keep the wheels turning.
    Something as simple as a national Oyster card works. Breeze in, breeze out. I find it very hard to believe that anyone's that worried about their movements being tracked in London now. So the national-identity-card idea needs to return.
  • So has anyone yet explained how removing students from the immigration figures reduces net migration ?

    Student enters Britain = immigrant
    Student leaves Britain = emigrant

    All removing students from the migration figures does is reduce the gross immigration and gross emigration numbers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2017

    Passports are not checked by UK Borders on leaving, however they are checked by airlines and other carriers. That is the source of the exit data now.

    It is likely that those on student visas changing to other visa types are missing from the supposedly net neutral figures.

    For Brexit to work as intended we do need a substantial increase in HM Customs and Border Agency staff, and for more Civil Servants to plough through up to 3 million extra cases applying for permanent status. There is no sign of this, or indeed on many other issues such as medicines licencing etc. If Brexit is not to be cliff edge, then this needs doing now, or we have to swallow the EU deal to keep the wheels turning.
    Agree with all of that. Yes there’s currently no exit checks leaving the UK, airlines send passenger lists to the Home Office and unless you’re flagged on a wanted database or are stopped by customs you leave without anyone except the airline looking at your passport at the gate.

    Mrs Rudd is vulnerable If her department doesn’t get on top of things as basic as sending the right letters to people. Depending on exactly what the EU deal looks like there are likely to be a couple of million EU nationals applying for leave to remain in the UK in the next couple of years. Every one they screw up will probably make the papers.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    Mortimer said:

    Other symptoms include putting words in the mouths of those one disagrees with, assuming Leavers are horrid, and continually thinking that the EU has us over a barrel.
    We know that it is infectious, but is it treatable?
  • So has anyone yet explained how removing students from the immigration figures reduces net migration ?

    Student enters Britain = immigrant
    Student leaves Britain = emigrant

    All removing students from the migration figures does is reduce the gross immigration and gross emigration numbers.

    It doesn't reduce net migration figures. It provides better figures since students here are no more migrants than tourists are.

    If next year the UK universities attract more students that is a good thing and is an economic export for the UK - yet it will be reported as a negative if students are counted because immigration has gone up.

    If next year UK universities fail to attract good students then that is a bad thing yet means the government is perversely rewarded with better migration figures.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537

    So has anyone yet explained how removing students from the immigration figures reduces net migration ?

    Student enters Britain = immigrant
    Student leaves Britain = emigrant

    All removing students from the migration figures does is reduce the gross immigration and gross emigration numbers.

    The report I linked to earlier in the thread implies that the IPS is good at counting students in but not good at counting them out. Actually, not even that. It complained that the ONS are unable to "triangulate" the exit numbers.

    How this is any different to any other group of migrants I don't know. We're only five years away from finding out how the 2021 mid year estimates compare to the 2021 Census. That's the ultimate arbiter of the migration statistics.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537

    It doesn't reduce net migration figures. It provides better figures since students here are no more migrants than tourists are.

    If next year the UK universities attract more students that is a good thing and is an economic export for the UK - yet it will be reported as a negative if students are counted because immigration has gone up.

    If next year UK universities fail to attract good students then that is a bad thing yet means the government is perversely rewarded with better migration figures.
    I don't think that's true at the moment. The immigration stats are being reported as though people don't want to come here. As I showed last night, the figures for January to March this year were very similar to 2016. I reckon the Brexit blip is over and the rolling annual figures will start to go up again in six months time.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483

    Interesting from James Landale on Boris in Libya:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-41049074

    Indeed and my estimation of Boris rises a couple of notches if that's what he's thinking. To be fair, having a semi-failed state on the northern shore of the Mediterranean doesn't help any of us and there still seems a shortage of long-term thinking about stopping the flow of migrants from points further south.

    It will be interesting to see if this represents a step-change in diplomatic practice and international co-operation or whether this is just cynical power-politics trying to build influence in a strategic and oil-rich (well, there's a thing) area.
  • tlg86 said:

    I don't think that's true at the moment. The immigration stats are being reported as though people don't want to come here. As I showed last night, the figures for January to March this year were very similar to 2016. I reckon the Brexit blip is over and the rolling annual figures will start to go up again in six months time.
    Well yes there is that. Migration goes up = bad = out of control. Migration goes down = bad = not an attractive country.

    However the issue is that students are temporary residents of the country who are here for potentially three or four years. Potentially going back home in the holidays and probably going home afterwards. Yes at the end of their course they could be counted as an emigrant but why should we do that? That leaves the figures reflecting not simply who is properly coming and going now but who registered three to four years ago.

    A student going back home at the end of their studies is no more an emigrant than a tourist going back home at the end of their holiday is.
  • It doesn't reduce net migration figures. It provides better figures since students here are no more migrants than tourists are.

    If next year the UK universities attract more students that is a good thing and is an economic export for the UK - yet it will be reported as a negative if students are counted because immigration has gone up.

    If next year UK universities fail to attract good students then that is a bad thing yet means the government is perversely rewarded with better migration figures.
    But the people who are concerned about immigration aren't concerned about students ** but with the effects that unskilled and non-assimilating immigration brings.

    This whole student numbers issue looks like politicians and media types obsessing about an irrelevance which they're interested in rather than sorting a genuine problem which they're not.

    ** Assuming that the students aren't 'students'.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    isam said:

    As with FPTP by elections, good second places are useless in a referendum. The winner takes it all. Remain need to learn this. !

    That is where you go wrong, I`m afraid. In FPTP elections, where the first placed candidate takes everything, their party may end up with power. But, depending on the size and distribution of votes cast against them, they do not necessarily end up with authority.

    We see this quite clearly in the case of the present administration in the USA. Trump is totally without authority.

    It is the same in the UK, where Mrs May has power, thanks not least to her bribing of the DUP, but she has no authority whatsoever. Neither does the Conservative Party as a whole, whoever is its leader..

    Nobody respects Mrs May, not even within her own party.

    In a referendum, there are not really winners and losers, are there? We had a proposal, and everybody voted in terms of what they wanted it to mean. A senseless waste of time.

    But the fact that a large number of people voted to Remain shows that the country is strongly divided - probably. Nobody in his right mind would take that as an endorsement for going full steam ahead, with half the country strongly against you. Still less for imposing drastic short-sighted hard-line Tory measures, which are claimed to be a consequence of the vote.

    The government ought to be trying to bring people together. It i positive proof of Mrs May`s uselessness that she is busy making the country even more divided.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537

    Well yes there is that. Migration goes up = bad = out of control. Migration goes down = bad = not an attractive country.

    However the issue is that students are temporary residents of the country who are here for potentially three or four years. Potentially going back home in the holidays and probably going home afterwards. Yes at the end of their course they could be counted as an emigrant but why should we do that? That leaves the figures reflecting not simply who is properly coming and going now but who registered three to four years ago.

    A student going back home at the end of their studies is no more an emigrant than a tourist going back home at the end of their holiday is.
    Here's why students are included:

    Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics use the UN recommended definition of a long-term international migrant: “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.”
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    PClipp said:

    That is where you go wrong, I`m afraid. In FPTP elections, where the first placed candidate takes everything, their party may end up with power. But, depending on the size and distribution of votes cast against them, they do not necessarily end up with authority.

    We see this quite clearly in the case of the present administration in the USA. Trump is totally without authority.

    It is the same in the UK, where Mrs May has power, thanks not least to her bribing of the DUP, but she has no authority whatsoever. Neither does the Conservative Party as a whole, whoever is its leader..

    Nobody respects Mrs May, not even within her own party.

    In a referendum, there are not really winners and losers, are there? We had a proposal, and everybody voted in terms of what they wanted it to mean. A senseless waste of time.

    But the fact that a large number of people voted to Remain shows that the country is strongly divided - probably. Nobody in his right mind would take that as an endorsement for going full steam ahead, with half the country strongly against you. Still less for imposing drastic short-sighted hard-line Tory measures, which are claimed to be a consequence of the vote.

    The government ought to be trying to bring people together. It i positive proof of Mrs May`s uselessness that she is busy making the country even more divided.
    No
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    Arguably, the fact foreign students DON'T stay on is the concern. These are young, well educated, well connected, motivated and highly marketable people.

    Encouraging a brain drain is not a good thing. The school I am involved with actively encourages students to return home - their skills are needed more there than here
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    PClipp said:

    That is where you go wrong, I`m afraid. In FPTP elections, where the first placed candidate takes everything, their party may end up with power. But, depending on the size and distribution of votes cast against them, they do not necessarily end up with authority.

    We see this quite clearly in the case of the present administration in the USA. Trump is totally without authority.

    It is the same in the UK, where Mrs May has power, thanks not least to her bribing of the DUP, but she has no authority whatsoever. Neither does the Conservative Party as a whole, whoever is its leader..

    Nobody respects Mrs May, not even within her own party.

    In a referendum, there are not really winners and losers, are there? We had a proposal, and everybody voted in terms of what they wanted it to mean. A senseless waste of time.

    But the fact that a large number of people voted to Remain shows that the country is strongly divided - probably. Nobody in his right mind would take that as an endorsement for going full steam ahead, with half the country strongly against you. Still less for imposing drastic short-sighted hard-line Tory measures, which are claimed to be a consequence of the vote.

    The government ought to be trying to bring people together. It i positive proof of Mrs May`s uselessness that she is busy making the country even more divided.
    By the same reasoning, no government elected under fptp should enact any of the policies in its manifesto.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Weird that article was on the BBC News homepage earlier this week. Didn't read that it was 2 years old already!
    I fly from Heathrow a couple of times a week and I've only ever once been checked (a couple of years ago)
  • tlg86 said:

    Here's why students are included:

    Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics use the UN recommended definition of a long-term international migrant: “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.”
    I would suggest that a student here temporarily during term-times is NOT making this "his or her new country of usual residence".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Charles said:

    I fly from Heathrow a couple of times a week and I've only ever once been checked (a couple of years ago)
    By an interviewer? I think this system just takes the data from the airlines.
  • Charles said:

    I fly from Heathrow a couple of times a week and I've only ever once been checked (a couple of years ago)
    Every time I've flown I've had my passport scanned by the airline.

    Travelling by ferry was different.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    Encouraging a brain drain is not a good thing. The school I am involved with actively encourages students to return home - their skills are needed more there than here
    The same arguably applies to the claim that the NHS couldn't function without immigrants. What we are doing in recruiting them is abusing our financial advantage to steal human capital from the third world.
  • But the people who are concerned about immigration aren't concerned about students ** but with the effects that unskilled and non-assimilating immigration brings.

    This whole student numbers issue looks like politicians and media types obsessing about an irrelevance which they're interested in rather than sorting a genuine problem which they're not.

    ** Assuming that the students aren't 'students'.
    If the people who are concerned about immigration aren't concerned about students then all the more reason to take students out of the equation. That way the Home Office is left with the figures of what is actually getting people concerned about.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Every time I've flown I've had my passport scanned by the airline.

    Travelling by ferry was different.
    All ferries count their passengers for safety reasons, so do have a reasonably accurate figure. Even the Isle of Wight Ferry records these numbers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    If the people who are concerned about immigration aren't concerned about students then all the more reason to take students out of the equation. That way the Home Office is left with the figures of what is actually getting people concerned about.
    Or they publish two sets of figures, with and without. The with figures are published because it is an international norm.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully no one was seriously hurt...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    By an interviewer? I think this system just takes the data from the airlines.
    Some people at the desk where the interviewers usually sit but this time they were scanning all oassports
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    edited August 2017
    Surrey's opening bowler Jade Dernbach. Is 204 enough?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    By an interviewer? I think this system just takes the data from the airlines.
    Squeezyjet send a vaguely threatening email about a week before each outbound flight asking you to specify in advance the travel document on which you are travelling (i.e. passport with number and expiry date). This is less onerous than it sounds because once you have given those details once you can say "same as usual".
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    All ferries count their passengers for safety reasons, so do have a reasonably accurate figure. Even the Isle of Wight Ferry records these numbers.
    Even the Portsmouth-Gosport ferry (which I am horribly familiar with) has a bloke with a ticker to check the 6 minute journey.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Charles said:

    Encouraging a brain drain is not a good thing. The school I am involved with actively encourages students to return home - their skills are needed more there than here
    A good point.

    Anecdote is not data but I was in Ukraine on holiday a few weeks back, and one of my tasks was to help do up the house of the in-laws. We had huge difficulty finding a local plumber, because apparently all the plumbers in Ukraine have gone to Poland - because all the Polish plumbers are in the UK!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    RobD said:
    This sort of event seems to happen several times a week now somewhere across Europe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    PClipp said:

    That is where you go wrong, I`m afraid. In FPTP elections, where the first placed candidate takes everything, their party may end up with power. But, depending on the size and distribution of votes cast against them, they do not necessarily end up with authority.

    We see this quite clearly in the case of the present administration in the USA. Trump is totally without authority.

    It is the same in the UK, where Mrs May has power, thanks not least to her bribing of the DUP, but she has no authority whatsoever. Neither does the Conservative Party as a whole, whoever is its leader..

    Nobody respects Mrs May, not even within her own party.

    In a referendum, there are not really winners and losers, are there? We had a proposal, and everybody voted in terms of what they wanted it to mean. A senseless waste of time.

    But the fact that a large number of people voted to Remain shows that the country is strongly divided - probably. Nobody in his right mind would take that as an endorsement for going full steam ahead, with half the country strongly against you. Still less for imposing drastic short-sighted hard-line Tory measures, which are claimed to be a consequence of the vote.

    The government ought to be trying to bring people together. It i positive proof of Mrs May`s uselessness that she is busy making the country even more divided.
    There was definitely a winner and a loser in the AV referendum though ;)
This discussion has been closed.