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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited August 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will surely lead to recriminations

Is Johnson on manoeuvres? His refusal to back PM on immigration data looks interesting https://t.co/AAoXqydrmv

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,227
    edited August 2017
    Double First!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Secundus.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,227
    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,227
    Isn't this typical Johnson MO?

    Boris Johnson, the former 30% favourite to succeed TMay, was pressed hard on Radio 4 this morning but managed to avoid backing

    'managed to avoid backing' is not quite the same as 'refusing to support'.....I'd read it more as typical Johnson bluster and obfuscation (didn't want to tread on PM/Home Sec/Education's toes) than reading 'incipient leadership plot' into it....

    If I was launching a leadership plot I'm not sure 'student immigration' is where I'd start......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    edited August 2017
    Boris will not challenge May, he wants her to be responsible for whatever Brexit deal is done along with Davis so he can set himself up as a Brexit true believer and run for the leadership once May goes in 2019. If he beats Davis he will then call a general election within a few months running a far more populist campaign than May with tax cuts at the fore, commitments to public sector pay rises, an ending of student migrant reduction targets but commitments to reductions in immigration elsewhere essentially aiming to beat Corbyn at his own game
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    "Is Johnson on manoeuvres ?"
    Isn't he always on manoeuvres ?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    "If you want evidence of how immigration enriches our culture, then look no further than this weekend’s Notting Hill Carnival" says George in the Standard: a hostage to fortune, as a Google of "Notting Hill Carnival murder" demonstrates.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    This whole student migration figures 'debate' is an utter waste of time. If almost all students leave at the end of their study, including them in the immigration and emigration figures will make almost no difference to net migration.

    This agenda has been pushed by slimeballs like Osborne who don't have the balls to argue for open borders, and instead want to disarm the opponents of mass migration by taking away meaningful figures.

    It was absolutely typical of the BBC to bang on about how 96.3% of students leave at the end of their studies, rather than focusing on the fact that 40,000 overstay illegally. If that were 0, the government would be a third of the way to meeting its 100,000 target.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,525
    Don't understand the rationale behind this. Surely fewer foreign students leads to less revenue for unis, leading to higher fees for home students. A proven vote loser one would have thought. Moreover, these students live in areas least opposed to immigration.
    They certainly are contributing to the re-generation of Newcastle city centre.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    In terms of political ability TMay is a dwarf alongside the Chancellor she ceremonially sacked in July last year.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    FPT:

    Amina Lone, Muslim Labour councillor and MP candidate who stood up for Sarah Champion, deselected by the party.

    Do Labour really see cultural sensitivity as more important than child abuse?

    https://order-order.com/2017/08/25/labour-candidate-who-spoke-out-about-abuse-deselected/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    In terms of political ability TMay is a dwarf alongside the Chancellor she ceremonially sacked in July last year.
    Lol! If she's so rubbish and he's so wonderful, why is she PM and he is editor of a free local paper?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Isn't this typical Johnson MO?

    Boris Johnson, the former 30% favourite to succeed TMay, was pressed hard on Radio 4 this morning but managed to avoid backing

    'managed to avoid backing' is not quite the same as 'refusing to support'.....I'd read it more as typical Johnson bluster and obfuscation (didn't want to tread on PM/Home Sec/Education's toes) than reading 'incipient leadership plot' into it....

    If I was launching a leadership plot I'm not sure 'student immigration' is where I'd start......

    This is an issue where TMay is vulnerable and the mess-up over the figures put her in a poor light.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    In news that will surprise no-one, it’s raining at Spa.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,344
    edited August 2017
    tlg86 said:

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    In terms of political ability TMay is a dwarf alongside the Chancellor she ceremonially sacked in July last year.
    Lol! If she's so rubbish and he's so wonderful, why is she PM and he is editor of a free local paper?
    I compare it to the time when Churchill was on the backbenches and no marks like Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain were PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    tlg86 said:

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    In terms of political ability TMay is a dwarf alongside the Chancellor she ceremonially sacked in July last year.
    Lol! If she's so rubbish and he's so wonderful, why is she PM and he is editor of a free local paper?
    I compare it to the time when Churchill was on the backbenches and no marks like Stanley Badlwin and Neville Chamberlain were PM.
    If anyone is Churchill it is Boris not Osborne
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,344
    edited August 2017
    I'll let you into a little secret

    1) Boris Johnson is more liberal and pro-immigration than David Cameron

    2) Boris Johnson would do anything/damage anyone to become PM

    3) I think he knows his opportunity was straight after the election

    4) I'm told Tim Shipman's book, published in the middle of October are going to very bad for Mrs May and Boris Johnson, which leaves a small window of opportunity for Boris.
  • welfordwelford Posts: 20
    HYUFD said:

    Boris will not challenge May, he wants her to be responsible for whatever Brexit deal is done along with Davis so he can set himself up as a Brexit true believer and run for the leadership once May goes in 2019. If he beats Davis he will then call a general election within a few months running a far more populist campaign than May with tax cuts at the fore, commitments to public sector pay rises, an ending of student migrant reduction targets but commitments to reductions in immigration elsewhere essentially aiming to beat Corbyn at his own game

    If he has any brains, he'll have worked out a way to increase the NHS budget by £350m a week - that would take the wind out of his critics sails, even if it wasn't done by reallocating money that used to go to the EU....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Ishmael_Z said:

    "If you want evidence of how immigration enriches our culture, then look no further than this weekend’s Notting Hill Carnival" says George in the Standard: a hostage to fortune, as a Google of "Notting Hill Carnival murder" demonstrates.

    And why all the shopkeepers of Notting Hill have boarded up their shops and gone away for the weekend. How much business (and VAT receipts) gets lost to the carnival every year?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,227
    Not just this GE either:

    The Conservative Party has worked with Blue Telecoms before. In the 2015 campaign, it declared £265,205 with the firm and spent a further £83,500 in 2016 during the Welsh Assembly elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    This is actually an issue under the remit of the ICO not the police as the article makes clear, so there may be a fine but unlikely to be any criminal sanctions
  • HYUFD said:

    This is actually an issue under the remit of the ICO not the police as the article makes clear, so there may be a fine but unlikely to be any criminal sanctions
    That story is from June, events have moved on.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I thought Hayward said the *May* brand was trashed not the Con one?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    HYUFD said:

    This is actually an issue under the remit of the ICO not the police as the article makes clear, so there may be a fine but unlikely to be any criminal sanctions
    That story is from June, events have moved on.
    The legislation in question is primarily the responsibility of the ICO
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,344
    edited August 2017
    Police say they are carrying out a 'significant' investigation into a secretive call centre operating on behalf of the Conservative party in the run up to the election.

    An undercover investigation at the Blue Telecoms call centre in South Wales claimed the cold-call centre broke data protection and election law.....

    ....It's against the law to pay someone to canvass for a particular candidate.

    The investigation into the contracting of the business in Neath was confirmed in a letter from South Wales Police to Labour MP Wayne David.

    The Conservative Party has said it did not break the law by using the company, which it said was hired to carry out legal market research and direct marketing.

    In a letter to Mr David, South Wales Police confirmed the investigation is being carried out by its economic crime unit, who have experience in dealing with "electoral integrity investigations".

    It adds there is no timescale for the investigation because it is of "sufficient scale and significance that South Wales Police are unable to offer any specific timescale".

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-announce-significant-investigation-tory-11052322
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    I'll let you into a little secret

    1) Boris Johnson is more liberal and pro-immigration than David Cameron

    2) Boris Johnson would do anything/damage anyone to become PM

    3) I think he knows his opportunity was straight after the election

    4) I'm told Tim Shipman's book, published in the middle of October are going to very bad for Mrs May and Boris Johnson, which leaves a small window of opportunity for Boris.

    Books didn't do Cameron any harm, it was Boris who led Leave not Cameron, he will not make a bid until Brexit talks are complete
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    welford said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris will not challenge May, he wants her to be responsible for whatever Brexit deal is done along with Davis so he can set himself up as a Brexit true believer and run for the leadership once May goes in 2019. If he beats Davis he will then call a general election within a few months running a far more populist campaign than May with tax cuts at the fore, commitments to public sector pay rises, an ending of student migrant reduction targets but commitments to reductions in immigration elsewhere essentially aiming to beat Corbyn at his own game

    If he has any brains, he'll have worked out a way to increase the NHS budget by £350m a week - that would take the wind out of his critics sails, even if it wasn't done by reallocating money that used to go to the EU....
    He could even do that too
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    It seems unlikely to me that Theresa May would want to stick with false information that showed her in a worse light than the true information would have done.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    England's top order batting is embarrassing. There is no chance of winning the Ashes with the current squad, despite a really powerful middle order and a useful bowling attack.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    This is actually an issue under the remit of the ICO not the police as the article makes clear, so there may be a fine but unlikely to be any criminal sanctions
    I should think that "Paid canvassing on behalf of Conservative election candidates – banned under election law." would be a police matter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    In terms of political ability TMay is a dwarf alongside the Chancellor she ceremonially sacked in July last year.
    Neither inspires confidence.

    Don't forget that imposing austerity younger voters. while exempting older voters from its consequences, was Osborne's policy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,227
    Mrs Clennell's returning to the UK:

    A Home Office spokesperson said: "Mrs Clennell has been granted a visa as a spouse as her latest application meets the immigration rules to enter the UK.

    "This does not negate the previous decision which was the result of Mrs Clennell having entered the UK as a visitor, overstaying her leave to remain and making several applications while in the UK which did not meet the immigration rules.

    "During that time, it was open to her to leave the UK voluntarily at any time in order to reapply under the correct route as she has now done."

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-who-was-deported-from-britain-after-30-years?utm_term=.uwVdMYdvpq#.jpoJ4mJZBM
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Both the next Labour leader and the next Conservative leader races are wide open according to the bookies. No one is currently last traded on Betfair at less than 10/1 for next Labour leader David Davis is shortest priced for the next Conservative leader but even he is only just better than 5/1.

    When was the last time that neither main party had an obvious heir apparent?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843
    Sean_F said:

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    It seems unlikely to me that Theresa May would want to stick with false information that showed her in a worse light than the true information would have done.
    Just as some accuse the EU of using problems as an excuse for 'More Europe', May used problems as an excuse for 'More May'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    edited August 2017
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is actually an issue under the remit of the ICO not the police as the article makes clear, so there may be a fine but unlikely to be any criminal sanctions
    I should think that "Paid canvassing on behalf of Conservative election candidates – banned under election law." would be a police matter.
    Only if they had clear evidence the caller said vote for that particular candidate or asked if they would support that particular candidate over the phone
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Put a small sum on Boris. Also, handy Raikkonen was second fastest in P2. Hopefully that'll shift his odds.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    RoyalBlue said:

    This whole student migration figures 'debate' is an utter waste of time. If almost all students leave at the end of their study, including them in the immigration and emigration figures will make almost no difference to net migration.

    This agenda has been pushed by slimeballs like Osborne who don't have the balls to argue for open borders, and instead want to disarm the opponents of mass migration by taking away meaningful figures.

    It was absolutely typical of the BBC to bang on about how 96.3% of students leave at the end of their studies, rather than focusing on the fact that 40,000 overstay illegally. If that were 0, the government would be a third of the way to meeting its 100,000 target.

    True in the long-run but false in the short-term.

    If we stopped all students coming tomorrow, then net migration would fall for a few years - we would have students going out as their course finishes and no students coming in.

    On the other hand- imagine our universities manage to successfully recruit more international students to pay mega fees... then net migration will go up in the short-term - even though we know those people are going to leave.

    Including students creates the incentive to harm our universities to meet an arbitrary target.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    BoJo has a recommendation about elections:

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/900979718111068160
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    I heard what Boris said this morning and did not take this from it. He was very clear that he was "pro students" and that foreign students made a major contribution to our educational institutions and society. On the question of whether they should be included he said, in a somewhat confused way, that they should be counted in the way they are currently counted and would not be drawn as to whether that should continue.

    It was far from a ringing endorsement of May's position on this but he did not actually disagree with her.

    World record matching run of 50s for Root by the way.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    rkrkrk said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    This whole student migration figures 'debate' is an utter waste of time. If almost all students leave at the end of their study, including them in the immigration and emigration figures will make almost no difference to net migration.

    This agenda has been pushed by slimeballs like Osborne who don't have the balls to argue for open borders, and instead want to disarm the opponents of mass migration by taking away meaningful figures.

    It was absolutely typical of the BBC to bang on about how 96.3% of students leave at the end of their studies, rather than focusing on the fact that 40,000 overstay illegally. If that were 0, the government would be a third of the way to meeting its 100,000 target.

    True in the long-run but false in the short-term.

    If we stopped all students coming tomorrow, then net migration would fall for a few years - we would have students going out as their course finishes and no students coming in.

    On the other hand- imagine our universities manage to successfully recruit more international students to pay mega fees... then net migration will go up in the short-term - even though we know those people are going to leave.

    Including students creates the incentive to harm our universities to meet an arbitrary target.
    Indeed. Education is a massive British export, at both school and university levels. Provided that students are coming primarily to study for meaningful qualifications (rather than dodgy language courses acting as a front for economic migrants) we should be encouraging as many of them here as possible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. L, indeed. Some leading politicians have made some very poor decisions recently.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Having heard that Boris interview this morning, I'd have thought that the rational betting response would be to lay him, not back him. He came over very poorly, tentative and oddly unsure of himself.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
    But he’s decided not to help his party, but to petulantly snipe from the sidelines. In that behaviour he is showing his true colours.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
    But he’s decided not to help, but to snipe from the sidelines. In that behaviour he is showing his true colours.
    He thought the side lines was all that was on offer. A comfortable May majority with him left on the back benches to rot. He overestimated her but he was not alone in that.
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    He's attending conference this year, albeit as a newspaper editor.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
    But he’s decided not to help his party, but to petulantly snipe from the sidelines. In that behaviour he is showing his true colours.
    His party has veered away from his vision and hence his sacking. Hence also his desire to put forward the case for an alternative party vision.

    I think that if fair enough.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.

    I am not so sure

    Right now the 3 stooges are reduced to whining about Brussels "not being helpful" as they stumble around trying to find the least painful way out of their own disaster.

    If Osborne (and Cameron) were still in the house, the Brexiteers would turn their ire on them.

    I previously opined, before he left the house, that Osborne could stand on an "I told you so" ticket.

    At the next election, after the chaos of a bungled Brexit deal, he could stand on a "not only did I tell you so, but now do you want the grownups back to clear up the mess?" ticket.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Damn.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Both the next Labour leader and the next Conservative leader races are wide open according to the bookies. No one is currently last traded on Betfair at less than 10/1 for next Labour leader David Davis is shortest priced for the next Conservative leader but even he is only just better than 5/1.

    When was the last time that neither main party had an obvious heir apparent?

    2015 Labour 2016 Conservatives.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    But he’s decided not to help his party

    His party suffered a coup by the headbangers. He had no place there.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited August 2017


    Cameron will be remembered (deservedly) as a failure. Offering the public a referendum where you believe one of the options to be disastrous, whilst forbidding the civil service to do any preparation, is negligence.

    What was Osborne's vision exactly? Balancing the budget (eventually) at the cost of ever-growing generational inequality with much higher immigration than the public wants?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    George Osborne's services were evidently not welcome in the Conservative party of 2017: the depth of the loathing of the average Leave-supporting Conservative for him was abundantly obvious and smeared all over social media.

    It's a bit rich for those same Leave-supporting Conservatives now to be criticising him for doing exactly what they desired and getting off the stage. Rich, but entirely in keeping with their entire approach.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tuesday

    While most ordinary people try to work out which of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un is the more likely to start a nuclear war, North Korea stole a march by issuing two commemorative stamps to celebrate its military dominance over the US. One shows a battery of nuclear missiles locked on to the target of the White House, while the other depicts a giant fist breaking feeble, substandard US nukes. Some may think these stamps are a wee bit previous, given the relative military strengths of the two countries. But as the Korean peninsula is likely to become a nuclear wasteland after any first strike by either country, you could argue that it is better to get the stamps out sooner rather than later, because no one will be around to enjoy them once the conflict is over. Better to celebrate a victory in advance than annihilation afterwards. Perhaps Royal Mail could take a leaf out of North Korea’s book by issuing a series of Brexit stamps to celebrate a triumph that hasn’t yet happened. The plummeting rate of sterling that saw the pound trading near enough at parity with the euro and made European holidays exorbitantly expensive for most Britons over the summer? Resolved with the issue of a new £1 stamp superimposed with an exchange value of €1.50. Take that, EU.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/aug/25/north-korea-victory-stamps-brexit-digested-week
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:



    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.

    Really? The pasty tax budget wasn't a "we all make mistakes" mistake, it was wankerdom of the highest order. In retrospect it is the childishness of the Cameron government which is its most striking fixture; that budget was Osborne phoning in an Oxford essay because he had something more interesting to do. His current behaviour is purely undergraduate: he thinks he is the editor of Cherwell sniping at the president of the Union.

    This, incidentally, is what is wrong with the lazy assertion that JRM is another Boris; JRM shows serious signs of being a grown-up, and I doubt whether even in his Oxford days he smashed up a restaurant or irrumated a pig's head.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
    But he’s decided not to help, but to snipe from the sidelines. In that behaviour he is showing his true colours.
    He thought the side lines was all that was on offer. A comfortable May majority with him left on the back benches to rot. He overestimated her but he was not alone in that.
    He decided not to stand for the leadership, and then couldn’t accept that the winner didn’t want him there. Instead of flouncing off to edit a newspaper they have to give away, he could have chosen the Gove route of being a supportive backbencher for a year of penance, and probably back in the Cabinet by now.

    Now more then ever we need everyone singing from the same hymn sheet. David Cameron has stood down and shut up, Osborne showed his true colours by going down he route he has chosen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Blue, I agree entirely on the matter of the referendum/preparation, although the Coalition period will be seen as a period of generally good governance compared with the previous and succeeding governments.

    It's some time ago, but the comparison I drew (when Cameron was watering down his line to avoid saying we'd have a Third World War if we left) was of asking the public if they'd like cucumber or razorblade sandwiches. If you genuinely believe one option to be disastrous it's insane to offer it in a binary referendum. The lack of preparation was just weird and stupid in equal measure.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    F1: bit surprised second practice got so soggy. Something to bear in mind, and check, for both the race and qualifying.

    I had thought Honda's reliability had improved but the latest 'upgrade' seems a bit iffy.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. Blue, I agree entirely on the matter of the referendum/preparation, although the Coalition period will be seen as a period of generally good governance compared with the previous and succeeding governments.

    It's some time ago, but the comparison I drew (when Cameron was watering down his line to avoid saying we'd have a Third World War if we left) was of asking the public if they'd like cucumber or razorblade sandwiches. If you genuinely believe one option to be disastrous it's insane to offer it in a binary referendum. The lack of preparation was just weird and stupid in equal measure.

    Again, that's Oxford, where the holy grail is not to get a first, but to get a first without appearing to have done any work for it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,043
    I smell a rat. If you look at the crease it is clearly the same pillow so this is obviously a spoof or the sellers are having s joke or can't even be arsed to put any effort into the rip off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. Blue, I agree entirely on the matter of the referendum/preparation, although the Coalition period will be seen as a period of generally good governance compared with the previous and succeeding governments.

    It's some time ago, but the comparison I drew (when Cameron was watering down his line to avoid saying we'd have a Third World War if we left) was of asking the public if they'd like cucumber or razorblade sandwiches. If you genuinely believe one option to be disastrous it's insane to offer it in a binary referendum. The lack of preparation was just weird and stupid in equal measure.

    How can you prepare for something that can be delivered in many different ways? Since the government remains utterly clueless about its ultimate objective, the civil service presumably continue to be hamstrung for exactly this reason.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
    But he’s decided not to help, but to snipe from the sidelines. In that behaviour he is showing his true colours.
    He thought the side lines was all that was on offer. A comfortable May majority with him left on the back benches to rot. He overestimated her but he was not alone in that.
    He decided not to stand for the leadership, and then couldn’t accept that the winner didn’t want him there. Instead of flouncing off to edit a newspaper they have to give away, he could have chosen the Gove route of being a supportive backbencher for a year of penance, and probably back in the Cabinet by now.

    Now more then ever we need everyone singing from the same hymn sheet. David Cameron has stood down and shut up, Osborne showed his true colours by going down he route he has chosen.
    Gove supported Br*x*t so in a Brexiting government there was no real issue in supporting the main thrust (no matter how incompetently it is being delivered). George was a fervent remainer so couldn't support the government's main task over the next two years and beyond which is to Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843
    Sandpit said:

    Now more then ever we need everyone singing from the same hymn sheet.

    Which hymn should they be singing? "All Deals Deep and Special" or "Onward Brexit Soldiers"?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    How can you prepare for something that can be delivered in many different ways? Since the government remains utterly clueless about its ultimate objective, the civil service presumably continue to be hamstrung for exactly this reason.

    Yes, that particular criticism of Cameron is completely barmy. Which of the many mutually-exclusive Brexits were they supposed to be preparing for? In addition, there is the point that anything which had been produced would have been howled down as a betrayal/Project Fear etc etc.

    In retrospect, though, I think that Cameron and Osborne did miss one trick; they should have arranged for the Leave campaign to get funding and civil service help to prepare a Brexit plan; it would have been extremely hard for the Leave campaign to refuse, and it would have exposed the unreality of much of what they were campaigning on.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Mr. Blue, I agree entirely on the matter of the referendum/preparation, although the Coalition period will be seen as a period of generally good governance compared with the previous and succeeding governments.

    It's some time ago, but the comparison I drew (when Cameron was watering down his line to avoid saying we'd have a Third World War if we left) was of asking the public if they'd like cucumber or razorblade sandwiches. If you genuinely believe one option to be disastrous it's insane to offer it in a binary referendum. The lack of preparation was just weird and stupid in equal measure.

    How can you prepare for something that can be delivered in many different ways? Since the government remains utterly clueless about its ultimate objective, the civil service presumably continue to be hamstrung for exactly this reason.
    Let Vote Leave work with the civil service. It would have tied them down to single vision and resulted in all the ugly compromises being aired prior to the vote.

    It probably would have won the referendum for Remain.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. Blue, I agree entirely on the matter of the referendum/preparation, although the Coalition period will be seen as a period of generally good governance compared with the previous and succeeding governments.

    It's some time ago, but the comparison I drew (when Cameron was watering down his line to avoid saying we'd have a Third World War if we left) was of asking the public if they'd like cucumber or razorblade sandwiches. If you genuinely believe one option to be disastrous it's insane to offer it in a binary referendum. The lack of preparation was just weird and stupid in equal measure.

    He was over confident in his own abilities to persuade the British public .I wonder why even with just getting over the winning line against Brown and a real scare from the Scottish.Hubris mixed with power and up bringing can be a fatal mixture.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    @RoyalBlue: Snap!
  • TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
    But he’s decided not to help, but to snipe from the sidelines. In that behaviour he is showing his true colours.
    He thought the side lines was all that was on offer. A comfortable May majority with him left on the back benches to rot. He overestimated her but he was not alone in that.
    He decided not to stand for the leadership, and then couldn’t accept that the winner didn’t want him there. Instead of flouncing off to edit a newspaper they have to give away, he could have chosen the Gove route of being a supportive backbencher for a year of penance, and probably back in the Cabinet by now.

    Now more then ever we need everyone singing from the same hymn sheet. David Cameron has stood down and shut up, Osborne showed his true colours by going down he route he has chosen.
    Gove supported Br*x*t so in a Brexiting government there was no real issue in supporting the main thrust (no matter how incompetently it is being delivered). George was a fervent remainer so couldn't support the government's main task over the next two years and beyond which is to Brexit.
    You're forgetting that much of the cabinet including three of the four Great Offices of State are all held by people who were Remainers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    How can you prepare for something that can be delivered in many different ways? Since the government remains utterly clueless about its ultimate objective, the civil service presumably continue to be hamstrung for exactly this reason.

    Yes, that particular criticism of Cameron is completely barmy. Which of the many mutually-exclusive Brexits were they supposed to be preparing for? In addition, there is the point that anything which had been produced would have been howled down as a betrayal/Project Fear etc etc.

    In retrospect, though, I think that Cameron and Osborne did miss one trick; they should have arranged for the Leave campaign to get funding and civil service help to prepare a Brexit plan; it would have been extremely hard for the Leave campaign to refuse, and it would have exposed the unreality of much of what they were campaigning on.
    And their manifesto?! That was pretty clear wasn't it? It's been forgotten now, obvs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    F1: bit surprised second practice got so soggy. Something to bear in mind, and check, for both the race and qualifying.

    I had thought Honda's reliability had improved but the latest 'upgrade' seems a bit iffy.

    The F2 cars are currently having fun qualifying in the pouring rain.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    He must be seriously regretting standing down from the Commons. If he was still there this forthcoming Conference would be electric.
    The bit in the Standard editorial from "Benefits of Diversity" downwards could just as easily have been said while standing at the lectern outside No. 10. As I'm sure he intended.
    He is, with Cameron, the outstanding politician of his generation. I don't agree with him on everything, the EU being an obvious example, and like everyone in public life he has made mistakes or misjudgements but for competence, vision and the ability to articulate a position there is no one in the current House of Commons who is even close. It is very unfortunate that he is not available to help in a difficult situation.
    But he’s decided not to help, but to snipe from the sidelines. In that behaviour he is showing his true colours.
    He thought the side lines was all that was on offer. A comfortable May majority with him left on the back benches to rot. He overestimated her but he was not alone in that.
    He decided not to stand for the leadership, and then couldn’t accept that the winner didn’t want him there. Instead of flouncing off to edit a newspaper they have to give away, he could have chosen the Gove route of being a supportive backbencher for a year of penance, and probably back in the Cabinet by now.

    Now more then ever we need everyone singing from the same hymn sheet. David Cameron has stood down and shut up, Osborne showed his true colours by going down he route he has chosen.
    Gove supported Br*x*t so in a Brexiting government there was no real issue in supporting the main thrust (no matter how incompetently it is being delivered). George was a fervent remainer so couldn't support the government's main task over the next two years and beyond which is to Brexit.
    You're forgetting that much of the cabinet including three of the four Great Offices of State are all held by people who were Remainers.
    Yes I appreciate that, but I think Osborne more than the others was more invested both personally and as CotE. As has been much rehearsed on here, I think May's pro-Remain speech was one of the best of the campaign, while Rudd was sent out efficiently vs BoJo. But it was definitely the Dave & George show.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843

    In retrospect, though, I think that Cameron and Osborne did miss one trick; they should have arranged for the Leave campaign to get funding and civil service help to prepare a Brexit plan; it would have been extremely hard for the Leave campaign to refuse, and it would have exposed the unreality of much of what they were campaigning on.

    Hopelessly wishful thinking. Even 14 months on, people are still leaping on any half-baked report promising the sunlit uplands after walking away with no deal.

    Giving the Brexiteers access to the civil service would just have given them another stick to beat the government with as they'd have blamed Whitehall Remoaners for frustrating their patriotic mission.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Meeks/Mr. Nabavi, contingency planning doesn't have to be for one contingency. Work on various options to be presented post-referendum would have been sensible.

    And if no work was possible, why did Cameron forbid it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TOPPING said:


    Yes I appreciate that, but I think Osborne more than the others was more invested both personally and as CotE. As has been much rehearsed on here, I think May's pro-Remain speech was one of the best of the campaign, while Rudd was sent out efficiently vs BoJo. But it was definitely the Dave & George show.

    You only have to see the bile heaped on George Osborne here by the more intense Leavers to realise that the idea of him serving in government any time in the next few years is fanciful.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Having arrived late to this; been out enjoying the sunshine and the sculpture eehibition in a local park.I’d simply comment that Mays insistence on including students in immigation totals, and it being a Bad Idea, was what the Sage of Twickenham was banging on about yesterday
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    TOPPING said:


    Yes I appreciate that, but I think Osborne more than the others was more invested both personally and as CotE. As has been much rehearsed on here, I think May's pro-Remain speech was one of the best of the campaign, while Rudd was sent out efficiently vs BoJo. But it was definitely the Dave & George show.

    You only have to see the bile heaped on George Osborne here by the more intense Leavers to realise that the idea of him serving in government any time in the next few years is fanciful.
    True but at least through thick and thin he can count on the support of @Alanbrooke.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited August 2017
    TOPPING said:

    And their manifesto?! That was pretty clear wasn't it? It's been forgotten now, obvs.

    It was clear on peripheral issues of zero importance (VAT on tampons, for heaven's sake!), but contained nothing other than wishful thinking on the important and complex issues: rights of EU citizens, budget contributions, the Irish border, protection of the City, how we transition from EU-negotiated trade deals with third-party countries to our own, etc etc etc.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    TOPPING said:

    And their manifesto?! That was pretty clear wasn't it? It's been forgotten now, obvs.

    It was clear on peripheral issues of zero importance (VAT on tampons, for heaven's sake!), but contained nothing other than wishful thinking on the important and complex issues: rights of EU citizens, budget contributions, the Irish border, protection of the City, how we transition from EU-negotiated trade deals with third-party countries to our own, etc etc etc.
    I'll have to go back and have a look at it (or perhaps not) but it managed to fill 30-odd pages so must have had something in it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On the student migration numbers, I think there is some considerable confusion between two separate things:

    1. Should students be included in the official migration statistics?

    2. Should students be included in the government migration target?

    The first is hard to change, because it would mean our statistics are not compatible with the internationally-agreed definition. The second, of course, is entirely within the government's control.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,402
    Boris Johnson is not doing his job as Foreign Secretary. Why should we employ him as Prime Minister? It goes beyond mere incompetence to abdication of responsibility.

    On this, good piece by Sir John Kerr in the Standard this week.

    Why doesn’t he do the one thing that really would help? The divorce negotiation is intrinsically difficult, because it’s a zero-sum game. The less the EU gets from us, the more the other dozen net contributors have to pay, or the harder hit are the net recipients, the poorer countries of Southern and Eastern Europe. So all 27 seek to maximise their claims, and we are right to scrutinise them rigorously.

    But negotiating on a future relationship is different, because there’s a mutual interest in getting one that works. And the more promising it looks, the greater the incentive for the 27 to agree a sensible compromise on the money. Which is why the drafters of Article 50 insisted that the divorce terms must “take account of the framework for the future relationship”.

    So where, among the new UK papers, is our draft framework? It matters, because we will presumably still want, post-Brexit, to maximise European support for UK interests on wider world issues. We will presumably still aim to win the 27’s backing before key Security Council votes.

    In the fight against terrorism we will presumably still want to share intelligence and have access to the European Arrest Warrant and the Schengen Information System. We will presumably still see an interest in co-ordinating and so optimising development aid, action against global warming, support for democracy, human rights, and a rules-based international system. While no longer at the EU Council table, won’t we still want to influence its decisions? So why hasn’t the Foreign Secretary said so?

    It’s his business. Davis’s remit is divorce; Liam Fox’s is trade; Johnson’s is UK foreign policy, including its European dimension. So why, though so damagingly voluble on others’ business, is he so silent about his own?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I don't think the role of Foreign Secretary has been the same since prime ministers started travelling overseas, not to mention our secular decline in the world order. I think it would be a very frustrating post (intelligence agencies aside) for politicians anxious to govern, rather than simply hold office.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    FF43 said:

    It’s his business. Davis’s remit is divorce; Liam Fox’s is trade; Johnson’s is UK foreign policy, including its European dimension. So why, though so damagingly voluble on others’ business, is he so silent about his own?

    Actually, although I'm no great fan of Boris, on that particular point Sir John Kerr seems to have missed the obvious: Boris has been deliberately excluded from the European dimension, which is being handled almost entirely by DD as part of the negotiations. It's not the case that DD is responsible only for the divorce. That seems very sensible to me, both in terms of the personalities and the fact that (as Sir John says) all the various strands of the negotiations have to be handled together.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843
    FF43 said:

    Johnson’s is UK foreign policy, including its European dimension. So why, though so damagingly voluble on others’ business, is he so silent about his own?

    Brexit is terminal for the UK's place in the world as it stood up until 2016 and Johnson has a front row seat.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RoyalBlue said:

    I don't think the role of Foreign Secretary has been the same since prime ministers started travelling overseas, not to mention our secular decline in the world order. I think it would be a very frustrating post (intelligence agencies aside) for politicians anxious to govern, rather than simply hold office.

    Hasn't been the same since Suez, when we ceased to have the power to implement a foreign policy, rather than simply react to world events.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Yorkcity said:

    Mr. Blue, I agree entirely on the matter of the referendum/preparation, although the Coalition period will be seen as a period of generally good governance compared with the previous and succeeding governments.

    It's some time ago, but the comparison I drew (when Cameron was watering down his line to avoid saying we'd have a Third World War if we left) was of asking the public if they'd like cucumber or razorblade sandwiches. If you genuinely believe one option to be disastrous it's insane to offer it in a binary referendum. The lack of preparation was just weird and stupid in equal measure.

    He was over confident in his own abilities to persuade the British public .I wonder why even with just getting over the winning line against Brown and a real scare from the Scottish.Hubris mixed with power and up bringing can be a fatal mixture.
    I think possibly because of those narrow scrapes rather than in spite of them: they may have established a narrative in his head where it is always a damn close run thing, but Dave saves the day and HMQ purrs with pleasure again.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843
    MTimT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I don't think the role of Foreign Secretary has been the same since prime ministers started travelling overseas, not to mention our secular decline in the world order. I think it would be a very frustrating post (intelligence agencies aside) for politicians anxious to govern, rather than simply hold office.

    Hasn't been the same since Suez, when we ceased to have the power to implement a foreign policy, rather than simply react to world events.
    Thanks to our estrangement from the EU we won't be able even to implement a European policy and will merely react to European events.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    the new Home Secretary, Amber Rudd — who is sensible and rational

    Go on, tell us what you really think, George......

    It's pretty clear what he really thinks:

    ...the then Home Secretary thought it was better to stick with false information than get the real facts, which might force her to change the policy.
    In terms of political ability TMay is a dwarf alongside the Chancellor she ceremonially sacked in July last year.
    So you keep telling us Mike.

    However didn't you also tell us that Chris Huhne was the 'sharpest brain in politics'?

    As it turned out he wasn't even the sharpest brain in his own family.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    On the student migration numbers, I think there is some considerable confusion between two separate things:

    1. Should students be included in the official migration statistics?

    2. Should students be included in the government migration target?

    The first is hard to change, because it would mean our statistics are not compatible with the internationally-agreed definition. The second, of course, is entirely within the government's control.

    I believe it is crazy that apart from Commenwealth countries EU , USA , Japan all other foreign students have to register with the police.The police spend all this time registering but never hardly use the information provided for example leaving dates.Surely it is time to take this registration process away from the police.The Alien registration act needs amendment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843
    edited August 2017
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/25/remaniac-in-chief-blair-visit-juncker-brexit-talks/

    'Remainiac-in-chief' Blair to visit Juncker during Brexit talks

    Andrew Bridgen, a conserative MP, said he was certain that Mr Blair would discuss Brexit with Mr Juncker.

    "He has a track record since he stopped being prime minister of cosying up to and dealing with people who do not have the best interests of the UK at heart."
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Mr. Blue, I agree entirely on the matter of the referendum/preparation, although the Coalition period will be seen as a period of generally good governance compared with the previous and succeeding governments.

    It's some time ago, but the comparison I drew (when Cameron was watering down his line to avoid saying we'd have a Third World War if we left) was of asking the public if they'd like cucumber or razorblade sandwiches. If you genuinely believe one option to be disastrous it's insane to offer it in a binary referendum. The lack of preparation was just weird and stupid in equal measure.

    He was over confident in his own abilities to persuade the British public .I wonder why even with just getting over the winning line against Brown and a real scare from the Scottish.Hubris mixed with power and up bringing can be a fatal mixture.
    I think possibly because of those narrow scrapes rather than in spite of them: they may have established a narrative in his head where it is always a damn close run thing, but Dave saves the day and HMQ purrs with pleasure again.
    I think you make a good point .
This discussion has been closed.