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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Brexit is blinding us resulting in other massive issues being ignored
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Two (or more) years of government not doing very much may not be an unmitigated disaster.....
Meanwhile, in a heroic Trump distraction effort, Nige is blaming the EU for Barcelona:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/17/nigel-farage-blames-eu-leaders-for-continued-isis-terror-in-europe.html
FPT - James Murdoch letter on Trump & Nazis:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/james-murdoch-rips-trump-standing-up-nazis-is-essential-1030778
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/arnold-schwarzenegger-tells-trump-are-not-two-sides-hatred-1030788?utm_source=twitter
The fall of Mosul is great but is just one more part of a long campaign against ISIS and no one can seriously believe that even if Raqqa falls it will mean the end of ISIS.
As for the Gulf cold war that is generally viewed as a case of a plague on both your houses. Personally my sympathies lie far more with Qatar than with Saudi and the idea that this isolation of Qatar is anything to do with their attitude to terrorism is just laughable given the long established and well funded Saudi support for terrorism both around the world and in any neighbouring country that doesn't share their particular brand of Islam.
I really struggle to see that either of these news items would have garnered - or deserved - any more interest in the UK even if Brexit had never happened.
I hear precious little talk or debate about the latter.
I'm sure it was well fought and sometimes that sadly isn't enough.
https://i.redd.it/i2l1quvt8lfz.png
My own belief (fwiw) is that if Trump does leave office early, it will be by resignation to rescue the family business rather than through impeachment.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-dc-hotel-turns-2-million-profit-in-four-months/2017/08/10/23bd97f0-7e02-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?utm_term=.349dc70eee3e
The 'elephant in the room' is social care for the elderly - but I doubt any politicians are in a hurry to propose anything on that.....so a couple of years of focussing on BREXIT may be no bad thing - and we can point and laugh at look on in wonder as 'Jupiter' Macron reforms France's Labour laws.......
Of all the issues listed I think housing is the biggest domestic issue. Finding somewhere decent to live at a reasonable cost is becoming impossible in London and this is spreading elsewhere. It affects the future of our children and, for those with property already, our old age - if no-one can buy how much of a "pension" can that property be?
From purely anecdotal reports it is something which bothers my children and their friends and affects their decisions re careers etc. It is making them less than enamoured of the current economic/political settlement.
Britain needs to start building good quality homes and being more imaginative in the use it makes of existing space.
Off topic: a depressing sign of the times that another major terrorist attack gets barely a mention these days.
Finally re what Foxnsox said on the ladt thread: "If I were a regular Joe at such a rally, I would do a reverse ferret very quickly, just as I would if I were to be at anti-war rally if people started flying Hamas flags and making anti-semetic remarks." - absolutely right. By the company you keep you will be judged. But not all those who some seem to think are regular Joes or nice people, do do such reverse ferrets at such rallies. Some even choose to speak at them.
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/898424337111203842
Also
For Mr Corbyn, the American president epitomises reactionary bigotry. For Mr Trump, the Labour leader (assuming he knows who he is), exemplifies the business-hating, government-loving, politically correct left.
Yet both men are falling into the same trap, blurring distinctions through muddled thinking and political cowardice.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/both-trump-and-corbyn-are-political-cowards-vkgzqsx0p
Some of the naivety shown by some of the under 35s on socialism is extremely worrying.
One of Thatcher's most popular policies was opening up the housing market. Now her successors are presiding over its closure to anyone other than the very rich, many of them foreign who treat London property as a bank. That is causing resentment, righly so IMO.
I despise Corbyn's socialism as much as anyone. But I look at the future for my children and see debt, no chance of a home and restricted life choices as a result. Criticising them for naivety about Corbyn is self-indulgent. We are being naive in thinking that they should be in favour of things as they are.
Miss Cyclefree, I agree.
Mr. P, very good news the attack was stopped. I do wonder if this use of vehicles as murder weapons will end when the last vestiges of those who've been to/trained by ISIS are dead, or whether it's here to stay.
The King of Spain will be in Barcelona today for a minute's silence in the heart of the City - the Placa de Catalunya, which is at the top of the Ramblas. I only hope he gets a civil reception from the Catalan nationalist, political and in the crowd. That I'm concerned he might not says it all.
Sitting back, doing nothing, and hoping the Macron will make a mess of his domestic policy as some sort of consolation, as Carlotta suggests, would be a pretty pathetic way to conduct the next few years of government, irrespective of any party political considerations.
But did they also manage the oil industry better?
This article points out they generated twice the revenue per barrel for the state compared to the UK, for a number of reasons. Headline conclusion:
"given political stability and competent institutions, a state can have both a relatively high tax burden on its industry and direct ownership of assets, and deliver more revenue for its citizens and still attract investment."
https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-£400-billion-worth-oil-revenue
Interesting and depressing bit of info on the parallel responses.
One reason why I want to carry on working rather than live on my pension/savings is that I want to be in a position to help my children and give them more choices than they would otherwise have.
The Conservative manifesto ideas on pensions, adult social care and WFA were steps in the right direction but done so incompetently.
And inevitably the privileged don't like having some of their privileges removed.
Where it went wrong was in handing out the big money to pensioners and universities in the first place and assuming that the young wouldn't mind paying for it.
Just saw that the five terrorists shot dead in Cambrils (a very nice, very Catalan resort right next door to Salou) were dealt with by the national Spanish police, not the Catalan Mossos. Hopefully, now at least, operationally they're all totally coordinated.
And now the state sponsored property bubble is ironically pricing those who need it most out of the market. Housing benefit is a perfect example of inept govt, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
None of the above is remotely connected to Brexit.
1) Brown's tax increases on pensions shifting investment money into property
2) Increased immigration creating a demand for rented housing
Of course you're correct about immigration, property is about supply and demand, it really isn't rocket science. And in London where property prices are astronomical they continue to vote for more immigration, its bizarre.
Sorry, but if you are on a march like that. you aren't in a position to complain about being unfairly tarred as racist.
If you choose to march at the same time as a massed group of neo-Nazis, then yes, you are keeping company with them.
Antifrank (sorry, Alastair) is correct. There's a lot else other than Brexit to talk about - I posted a couple of pieces from Public Finance about the financial crisis in Council Children's Services Departments and a study showing 70,000 additional care places for Adults will be required by 2025 and got not a single comment.
The trouble is these are tough issues with no easy answers but they matter.
One much less relevant piece to lighten the mood on Friday, also from Public Finance, showing the move of the BBC to Manchester had little or no discernible economic benefit. Needless to say, that hasn't been universally welcomed.
http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2017/08/bbcs-manchester-move-had-little-economic-benefit
While obviously at the moment their energies are concentrated on getting their new property as they want it, the last time I spoke to them on the subject of politics neither had any intention of ever voting Tory.
We went with them to buy some furniture. We paid a substantial deposit for them, but there’s a bit left over on HP and while they were asked about their salaries there was no mention of repayment of student loans, although obviously both are doing so.
You seem to be quoting, so trying that phrase in the Google seems to only give us a similar phrase from the hideous SPLC. Admittedly I gave up after the first page but at first verification it does seem to be fake news.
The hypothesis was not about people "on the march", it was about a non-Nazi citizen who was there to protest for non-racist reasons about the removal of the statue.
"Why not have a second protest at a different time from the one led / infiltrated by neo-Nazis,"
My marching days are long gone, but I do remember any vaguely left-wing demo being infiltrated by the SWP and the anarchists. They get everywhere.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-leadership-candidate-wants-cut-11006718
Quite extraordinary.
There are far too many questions to list but as an example, should we be providing financial encouragement for families to take a leading role in the care of elderly relatives ? The tradition of children being able to stay near older parents has been shattered by the housing market and the advent of mass-scale University education which saw youngsters move away and put down roots in other towns and cities (and indeed other countries).
How can living a vital economically active and productive life be combined (when and if it needs to be) with the provision of an appropriate environment for the care of an elderly relative ? How do we meet the demands of an increasingly inter-generational workforce where people from 17 to 70 could be in the same office or organisation ?
Again, these are difficult questions and answers often cut across traditional tribal political loyalties.
Ofnadwy / terrible. Is this more far right terrorism? My thoughts are with all those affected.
High-cost housing and low wages are south-east problems. The one is caused not by genuine property shortage, but by an influx into the City of highly-paid workers bidding prices up; the other is caused by an influx of young workers, some unskilled and some with degrees, neither of which type can get a job back home in Spain, Estonia, or wherever.
The solution to the latter would appear to be Brexit, unfortunately. It's not just a simple matter of the state deliberately crashing the property market by overbuilding. Infrastructure is required too.
Australia citizenship: Sixth MP in eligibility trouble
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40970963
And Michael Gove may be impeached if his lousy education system has led the BBC to think Australia is in Europe.
Don't mention Coopersale or you'll get Sunil on here waxing lyrical about the Epping-Ongar railway.
What you fail to see is that organisations like AmericanCancer are taking such actions because they consider it right (a virtue) not to associate with a POTUS who appears to support white-supremacists. It's not about signalling the virtue, it's about applying it.
As for SJW's, the vast majority of people want to see social justice; you don't have to be any kind of 'warrior'. Many wealthy AmericanCancer donors will be liberal-minded people who support social justice. They are a far cry from your crass stereotype of soap-avoiding 'SJWs'.
PS You'll be pleased to know the National Trust survived your political stand against them. Membership numbers have grown from 2 million in 1990 to 4.24 million in 2015, and in 2016 reached a record 4.59m. Together with NT Scotland it is one of the truly great British institutions. Shame you can't see your way to support it, but that's your loss.
This is the latest nonsense in this vein which rather proves the organisers' point:
http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/facing-pushback-ryerson-cancels-panel-discussion-on-campus-free-speech/wcm/65986f6f-d393-4213-b10d-003e1c348c44
It was thus that the old mortgage lending rules of 3.5x the main salary / 2.5x main plus 1x the other originally arose. Lenders quite correctly heavily discounted the little woman's salary because there was so little left of it relative to the man's that it wasn't worth the same as man- money when it came to servicing a mortgage.
Lawson, the bastard, swept all that away so that a woman got her own personal allowance and was taxed as a person rather than a chattel (Labour voted against this wickedness). Whatever was he thinking? As a result, mortgage lending - and hence what couples could bid for houses - adjusted to 3x joint salary, and with secularly-falling interest rates for the last 25 years, to 4x or even 5x salary.
Even worse, the little wives now bothered to work where previously it hadn't been worth it. They no longer knew their place and unwisely left the kitchen. As a result you now need two average salaries to fund the average mortgage, and the man's wages have been competed down by women.
This is pure Tory evil and the answer clearly is to return to the enlightened Saudi-style taxation policies of pre-1988. I feel sure that any party setting all this out as I have done would sweep to power - the trade unions would certainly like it.
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It was the maligned Ed Miliband who got it that high house prices are anti-aspirational and so went against a totem firmly held by all governments. Much good it did him.
The impending humiliation of Brexit is going to have a lot more in common with Suez.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/08/britain-has-built-national-myth-winning-second-world-war-it-s-distorting-our
I'm putting forward this statue of Forrest in Nashville as being a superior art form representative of neo-Nazis everywhere:
http://images.gawker.com/1310553686853971558/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800.jpg
http://images.gawker.com/1310553686994018150/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636.jpg
Well, if that's what Baroness Chakrabarti's report says, it must be true. Indeed, Champion throwing herself from the rooftop of reality can only be further proof of Chairman Corbyn's innate goodness.
(everyone's a critic)
And canvass and leaflet too.
It's often forgotten that in 1989 to 1995 rents went through the roof because people were prepared to pay up to avoid the capital loss of buying. It's why BTL took off too - in 1996 you could buy a flat with a 75% BTL mortgage and instantly let it out for more than the mortgage was costing. BTL was started and enabled by the last house price crash, basically.