politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the SNP’s MPs would probably not support a vote for an ear

Sandpit said:

GIN1138 said:

21hrs since Chappers last Tweeted... Wonder what happened?

So many possibilities...

Hopefully either his wife or his lawyer has managed to confiscate his internet connection!

He was complaining that he'd been locked out 5 times - maybe someone managed to do it properly at last!

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yorkshire now well on top

Never in doubt.

All over now. Thanks for the nudge that made me a quick couple of beer tokens. I owe you a pint!

I'm nailed on for PB tipster of the year now.

Nope. @Chris_from_Paris nailed on for his Macron tip before anyone had heard of him.

Have you forgotten my tip of Diane Abbott as next Labour leader at 100/1?

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yorkshire now well on top

Never in doubt.

All over now. Thanks for the nudge that made me a quick couple of beer tokens. I owe you a pint!

I'm nailed on for PB tipster of the year now.

Nope. @Chris_from_Paris nailed on for his Macron tip before anyone had heard of him.

Have you forgotten my tip of Diane Abbott as next Labour leader at 100/1?

Doesn't a tip generally have to turn out to be correct to be in any way good?

https://twitter.com/fahrenthold/status/898280607012212736

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/898286193758154752

There is going to be an America First rally and counter protest in Laguna this weekend

The mayor is quoted as saying "locals should stay away as we want calmness to prevail"

I'm not entire sure that's what he meant...

I'm tempted to go watch the fun...

Alistair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yorkshire now well on top

Never in doubt.

All over now. Thanks for the nudge that made me a quick couple of beer tokens. I owe you a pint!

I'm nailed on for PB tipster of the year now.

Nope. @Chris_from_Paris nailed on for his Macron tip before anyone had heard of him.

Surely my repeated warning people off backing the Tories in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock whilst sticking money on them at 7/1 must win me some kind of award?

Didn't you win an award in 2015 for not backing Jeremy Corbyn as next Labour leader at 969/1?

GeoffM said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/fahrenthold/status/898280607012212736

So virtue signalling is now more important than raising money to fight cancer.

Noted.

Or maybe they took another look at Donald no-mates and did a cost/benefit analysis ?

https://twitter.com/clickhole/status/898273473419784192

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

dixiedean said:

Match suspended at Goodison... there are violent people on both sides.

Only one giving Nazi salutes however.

I watched the video closely, more closely than you and I know there are many good people among them....

You can tell character from looking at a video? Impressive.

But as I said at the time, I expect the crowd did include some people who were just nostalgic and I hope went eeek if they noticed the Nazis. It is, however, oddly hair-splitting of Trump to focus on these, in the same way as it would be odd if he said that ISIS probably has some chaps who signed up with good intentions, even if it's true.

I don't know if you missed that my post was a gag or not. We were talking about the football.

https://twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/898290546661142528

GeoffM said:

Benpointer said:

GeoffM said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/fahrenthold/status/898280607012212736

So virtue signalling is now more important than raising money to fight cancer.

Noted.

You think they couldn't raise money anywhere else?

I'm sure they can, but its a risk for any charity.

Whenever a charity starts taking an overtly political stance they will lose some donors and they have to hope to maybe gain others to offset that. The SJWs might cheer the virtue signalling but they don't have enough money to buy themselves soap.

I am sure they know they would lose more donors by associating with Trump.

Still, I expect he's pleased to know he still has a supportier in you!

619 said:

Benpointer said:

GeoffM said:

Benpointer said:

GeoffM said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/fahrenthold/status/898280607012212736

So virtue signalling is now more important than raising money to fight cancer.

Noted.

You think they couldn't raise money anywhere else?

I'm sure they can, but its a risk for any charity.

Whenever a charity starts taking an overtly political stance they will lose some donors and they have to hope to maybe gain others to offset that. The SJWs might cheer the virtue signalling but they don't have enough money to buy themselves soap.

I am sure they know they would lose more donors by associating with Trump.

Still, I expect he's pleased to know he still has a supportier in you!

Bloody cancer charity do gooders.

They are still doing the fundraiser and are avoiding association with a crazy racist. Win win!

Indeed! What's not to like? Unless you're GeoffM of course!

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yorkshire now well on top

Never in doubt.

All over now. Thanks for the nudge that made me a quick couple of beer tokens. I owe you a pint!

I'm nailed on for PB tipster of the year now.

Nope. @Chris_from_Paris nailed on for his Macron tip before anyone had heard of him.

Surely my repeated warning people off backing the Tories in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock whilst sticking money on them at 7/1 must win me some kind of award?

Didn't you win an award in 2015 for not backing Jeremy Corbyn as next Labour leader at 969/1?

Yes.

...

Yes.

It could be worse.

You could have been the one laying Corbyn at 969/1.

Charles said:

619 said:

No love for the Nazis

https://twitter.com/okcupid/status/898249291382345729

Do you think this will (a) help persuade him / followers / potential followers that they are wrong; or (b) reinforce their views that they are an oppressed minority despised by the liberal California elite?

Probably (b). But then again almost anything at all would be (b).

619 said:

No love for the Nazis

https://twitter.com/okcupid/status/898249291382345729

It took me about 15 mins to find an archived copy of Chris Cantwell's OKCupid advert. I thought about posting it here but I figured that would be me being a bastard so I didn't.

Charles said:

619 said:

No love for the Nazis

https://twitter.com/okcupid/status/898249291382345729

Do you think this will (a) help persuade him / followers / potential followers that they are wrong; or (b) reinforce their views that they are an oppressed minority despised by the liberal California elite?

Also, surprised he didn't use one of the many existing Aryan supremist dating sites.

felix said:

Sean_F said:

On topic, how on earth did the Conservatives get so close in Lanark and Hamilton? That's like running close in Bootle.

Indeed - Ruth Davidson ran a very much more successful campaign in Scotland. Quite a few on here don't quite get how different Scottish politics has become. However, there are serious lessons for English and welsh Tories to learn here.

One Nation Toryism, social liberalism, europhile and with a sense of humour?

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

619 said:

No love for the Nazis

https://twitter.com/okcupid/status/898249291382345729

Do you think this will (a) help persuade him / followers / potential followers that they are wrong; or (b) reinforce their views that they are an oppressed minority despised by the liberal California elite?

Indeed. Where there were a bunch of KKK and a bunch of Swastika-flagged neo-Nazis at last week's protest, there were also a large bunch of more regular Trump-supporting WWC types. And for the past week everyone in the media has been calling that last group, to think of a phrase, the deplorables.

This is undoubtedly true. However, Cantwell is a raging anti-Semite, and all-round nasty piece of work. OK Cupid has a duty of care.

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

619 said:

No love for the Nazis

https://twitter.com/okcupid/status/898249291382345729

Do you think this will (a) help persuade him / followers / potential followers that they are wrong; or (b) reinforce their views that they are an oppressed minority despised by the liberal California elite?

Indeed. Where there were a bunch of KKK and a bunch of Swastika-flagged neo-Nazis at last week's protest, there were also a large bunch of more regular Trump-supporting WWC types. And for the past week everyone in the media has been calling that last group, to think of a phrase, the deplorables.

Were there really? Walking with KKK members, chanting "blood and soil"?, flying Nazi flags and fascist symbols?

If I were a regular Joe at such a rally, I would do a reverse ferret very quickly, just as I would if I were to be at anti-war rally if people started flying Hamas flags and making anti-semetic remarks.

MarkSenior said:

Epping Town Council Hemnall ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative

LD 805
Con 481

The Conservative candidate was our very own HYUFD

Commiserations to HYUFD. Putting oneself up for election is admirable, and there is no shame in not succeeding.

So often it is the political tide, and not the candidate. Better luck next time.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

619 said:

No love for the Nazis

https://twitter.com/okcupid/status/898249291382345729

Do you think this will (a) help persuade him / followers / potential followers that they are wrong; or (b) reinforce their views that they are an oppressed minority despised by the liberal California elite?

Also, surprised he didn't use one of the many existing Aryan supremist dating sites.

Californians are prettier

GeoffM said:

I was making a serious and non-political point. I'm not sure if you missed it or deliberately chose to ignore it but I'll have one more go.

When a charity decides to go political, they face losing some donors and have to hope that they offset those by gaining others... Going all SJW risks alienating some of your philanthropic base. By virtue signalling they are gambling with lifesaving levels of fund raising. That's all. It's not a political thing. Charities should stay out of politics.

A few months ago I was in a second-hand bookshop and working on the grounds that God does not forgive you if you leave without buying one, I bought a copy of John Simpson's "A Mad World, My Masters" for about 50p. In it he relates his interviews of various ne'er-do-wells. One of them was with Maurice Rossel, the International Red Cross delegate who visited Theresienstadt in 1944 and reported that conditions there were fair and reasonable. Rossel's rationale was that criticising the Nazis would serve no purpose other than prevent further visits by the Red Cross. A defensible point-of-view but one that neutered the Red Cross and saved no lives

The reason why I bring this up is that charities are frequently faced with circumstances that can only be described as political. It is a little-known fact that in the first few days of any given disaster the first-responders are mostly Christian charities, who receive much funding from the various North American congregations, and how to deal with the politics of disaster is always a problem. But the idea that charities should stay out of politics is difficult to defend, since they spend a lot of their time in it up to their neck.

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Epping Town Council Hemnall ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative

LD 805
Con 481

The Conservative candidate was our very own HYUFD

Commiserations to HYUFD. Putting oneself up for election is admirable, and there is no shame in not succeeding.

So often it is the political tide, and not the candidate. Better luck next time.

Ditto. He's not my color but HYUFD's a decent sort and I am sure he would have made a good Councillor.

Charles said:

I could quote Voltaire but you probably wouldn't understand.

If he's broken the law then prosecute him and lock him up.

In a free society people have the right to be despicable arseholes.

I understand without Googling the Voltarian precept about defending to the death the right to say it, although I did have to check that "Voltarian" was a word. But it would be difficult to extend that to an absolute right to go on a dating website.

Peter_the_Punter said:

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Epping Town Council Hemnall ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative

LD 805
Con 481

The Conservative candidate was our very own HYUFD

Commiserations to HYUFD. Putting oneself up for election is admirable, and there is no shame in not succeeding.

So often it is the political tide, and not the candidate. Better luck next time.

Ditto. He's not my color but HYUFD's a decent sort and I am sure he would have made a good Councillor.

Yes!

Commiserations to HYUFD.

GeoffM said:

I was making a serious and non-political point. I'm not sure if you missed it or deliberately chose to ignore it but I'll have one more go.

When a charity decides to go political, they face losing some donors and have to hope that they offset those by gaining others.

Consider the National Trust. They decided to rip up the written legacies of their benefactors over field sports rights on land left to them, for example. They lost some members over that (me, for example). Whether they gained any members on the flip-side is debatable. Similarly with me and the RSPCA on the same subject.

Going all SJW risks alienating some of your philanthropic base. By virtue signalling they are gambling with lifesaving levels of fund raising. That's all. It's not a political thing. Charities should stay out of politics.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Take an example with opposite colours. Say you're a charity in Venezuala trying to alleviate desperate poverty, and the Government keeps making matters worse. Do you just keep plugging on, or do you say something to draw attention to the source much of the problem? I think there's a case for the latter, and it's more a judgment issue that a simple right or wrong.

I can see it the other way too - in the Red Cross example that viewcode cites, I think that though actually lying to appease a monstrous government goes too far (he should perhaps have at least declined to comment), I value the Red Cross for not taking political stances - we need some who are trusted by everyone to be discreetly helpful to victims.

Where I do agree is that charities should acknowledge good work by people who some of their staff might personally not support. i currently work as Head of Policy for an animal welfare charity, and have said publically that Michael Gove is potentially the best Secretary of State for DEFRA in 20 years in view of his recent excellent speeches. It's simply true, and my private political persuasion is irrelevant.

viewcode said:

Charles said:

viewcode said:

Charles said:

I could quote Voltaire but you probably wouldn't understand.

If he's broken the law then prosecute him and lock him up.

In a free society people have the right to be despicable arseholes.

I understand without Googling the Voltarian precept about defending to the death the right to say it, although I did have to check that "Voltarian" was a word. But it would be difficult to extend that to an absolute right to go on a dating website.

@619 also celebrated a different racist toss pot being sacked. He clearly thinks they should be persecuted. I disagree: I believe in robust engagement.

And failing that, well, there are other options...

On another point: you quoting Voltaire is OK but me quoting Dostoyevsky isn't?

It sucks being you doesn't it?

Charles said:

619 said:

Charles said:

619 said:

No love for the Nazis

https://twitter.com/okcupid/status/898249291382345729

Do you think this will (a) help persuade him / followers / potential followers that they are wrong; or (b) reinforce their views that they are an oppressed minority despised by the liberal California elite?

This is the guy who was on vice youtube saying he wants more violence in charlotteville, was cauhht on camera on the march making anti-semitic remarks, and was hilariously on twitter crying about how he isnt a violent raciat, so he is being unfsirly targetted by the police.

So he is a violent racist wanted by the police you are defending

I could quote Voltaire but you probably wouldn't understand.

If he's broken the law then prosecute him and lock him up.

In a free society people have the right to be despicable arseholes.

I am not sure the mis-attributed Voltaire quote is supposed to extend to direct incitement to violence.

When will UKIP call it a day?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/898324500852256768
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/898325976802672640

AndyJS said:

Commiserations to HYUFD.

Thanks though it is at least a platform for the 2019 town council elections. I got about 37%, in the 2016 district elections the Tories got 34% in the same ward so it was alright. The last town council elections were fought in May 2015 when Dave won his majority. The LDs put out 6 leaflets and threw the book at it over the local plan so while I am obviously disappointed to lose it at least got my name known and is something to build on but we need more action days locally and more leaflets

NickPalmer said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Epping Town Council Hemnall ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative

LD 805
Con 481

The Conservative candidate was our very own HYUFD

Commiserations to HYUFD. Putting oneself up for election is admirable, and there is no shame in not succeeding.

So often it is the political tide, and not the candidate. Better luck next time.

Ditto. He's not my color but HYUFD's a decent sort and I am sure he would have made a good Councillor.

Yes!

Thanks Nick

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Epping Town Council Hemnall ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative

LD 805
Con 481

The Conservative candidate was our very own HYUFD

Commiserations to HYUFD. Putting oneself up for election is admirable, and there is no shame in not succeeding.

So often it is the political tide, and not the candidate. Better luck next time.

Thanks Dixiedean and yes I will try again if I can, I now need some much needed sleep having been going since 7am this morning. Night all

The Brexit lie machine has kicked into gear again:

Leaving EU without deal would not be a disaster, says thinktank.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/18/leaving-eu-without-deal-would-not-be-a-disaster-says-thinktank

British consumers could benefit from the removal of all tariffs because the UK would be able to import goods at lower prices from countries on which the EU imposes high tariffs, such as oranges from South Africa, according to the IEA.

And what exactly is this high tariff we're currently paying on oranges from South Africa? 0%!

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805102210?country=ZA#import

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

The Brexit lie machine has kicked into gear again:

Leaving EU without deal would not be a disaster, says thinktank.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/18/leaving-eu-without-deal-would-not-be-a-disaster-says-thinktank

British consumers could benefit from the removal of all tariffs because the UK would be able to import goods at lower prices from countries on which the EU imposes high tariffs, such as oranges from South Africa, according to the IEA.

And what exactly is this high tariff we're currently paying on oranges from South Africa? 0%!

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805102210?country=ZA#import

Perhaps they are talking about the third country duty, or is that something separate?

The preferential tariff overrides it if the product originates in that country.

http://exporthelp.europa.eu/thdapp/display.htm?page=it/it_Tips__TricksOnEUTariffs.html

williamglenn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/18/leaving-eu-without-deal-would-not-be-a-disaster-says-thinktank

Good article - the Times would have reported the IFG report (Brexit Disaster) the Mail the IEA (Brexit Triumph) - I've observed before, the Guardian, reporting both, is about the only reliable source on Brexit....

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

And what exactly is this high tariff we're currently paying on oranges from South Africa? 0%!

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805102210?country=ZA#import

Others (Mandarins, Clementines, Tangerines, Minneolas)......16%.......

They are all 0% too. The erga omnes duty you're looking at is the default that does not apply to South Africa or any other country with preferential access.

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Epping Town Council Hemnall ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative

LD 805
Con 481

The Conservative candidate was our very own HYUFD

Commiserations to HYUFD. Putting oneself up for election is admirable, and there is no shame in not succeeding.

So often it is the political tide, and not the candidate. Better luck next time.

Thanks Dixiedean and yes I will try again if I can, I now need some much needed sleep having been going since 7am this morning. Night all

Commiserations. Better luck next time!

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

And what exactly is this high tariff we're currently paying on oranges from South Africa? 0%!

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805102210?country=ZA#import

Others (Mandarins, Clementines, Tangerines, Minneolas)......16%.......

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805219011?country=ZA
https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805220011?country=ZA#import
https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805219091?country=ZA#import
https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0805290021?country=ZA#import

I cast my eyes over the EU-SA FTA a few months ago, and I'm pretty sure that William is right on this one.

Yes - I misread it - SA (and some others) 0%, everyone else, 16%.......bargain!

williamglenn said:

Interesting news:
https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/898345325139640321

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/18/james-murdoch-criticises-donald-trumps-response-to-charlottesville?CMP=twt_gu

rcs1000 said:

Commiserations to HYUFD. Better luck next time.

Thanks RCS

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

Commiserations to HYUFD. Better luck next time.

Seconded! Or fifthed!

Until people stand for election I don't think they fully understand the absolute power the electorate holds - hence the insouciance some appear to hold when it comes to respecting their decisions.....

Thanks Carlotta