politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now for the Corbyn of the Right
Comments
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how much is a brazilian at your place ?David_Evershed said:
I doAlanbrooke said:
weve already established nobody reads the FT except people waiting for job interviews in nail barsScott_P said:
move on0 -
There might not have been any economic logic to it but there was a political logic ie it transferred wealth from a group which didn't vote Conservative to a group which did vote Conservative.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), I think the OBR said it would be a 9BN cost in the final year of the parliament and rather less each year before then, because fewer years' cumulative cap vs no-cap margin.Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
The amount of the increase and how it is raised will be fascinating. The IFS just said that there is not enough money in labour's policy to tax the rich and corporations and that everyone will have to see their taxes increase, or experience big cuts in spending or very heavy borrowing.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels
And George Osborne was a Chancellor who thought in political terms not economic.
To be fair he wasn't the first to do so nor will he be the last.
The long term problem though is that once something such as triple-lock pensions has been introduced its very difficult to stop it. As events of the last month have shown.0 -
No: it internalises some of the gains from free trade to the members while reducing the likelihood of a global deal.FF43 said:
That's wrong. The barriers are the same to the outer world whether the line is drawn at national borders or at the outer edge of the customs union. Inside the customs union however the trade is free. If we take the UK as an example it's the difference between 50% free trade (to the EU) and 50% not free (to RoW) compared with 100% (to EU and RoW). For simplicity I make a binary distinction between free and not free , but trade within the SIngle Market will always be free-er than outside it.Charles said:
His fundamental point - a customs union is inimical to global free trade - is undoubtedly right thoughFF43 said:
Actually the more interesting point he made, that the EU is an agent of economic nationalism, is wholly wrong. That misunderstanding doesn't bode well for the good Brexit deal he is supposedly working for as Brexit Minister.williamglenn said:
Wishing the EU to disappear in a peaceful way is logical. If that happens (and there is no reason to believe it will in short order) the Brexit problem goes away.
Unless the customs union is fully autarkial it will be net net worse off than under free trade. And the world as a whole will be much worse off.
It's like claiming sago is an adequate substitute for rice pudding0 -
SeanT may give her a few good write ups but I doubt he would vote for them, I don't think it would be allowed in Primrose Hill!IanB2 said:
It will at least give SeanT someone to vote for?HYUFD said:She sounds barking but with the Tories and Labour having taken their clothes on Brexit, ending free movement and leaving the single market and in the Tories case grammar schools an anti radical Islam message in the style of the FN or AfD may be the best way for them to go after the recent terror attacks
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If Man City go far and long...then your BT infinity deal is well worth the outlay.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Tyson - thought I would share it on here as the football season is not far away.tyson said:
Well done Big Man....I wish sports were free on terrestrial TV...Big_G_NorthWales said:Re football - just managed to get a £10.50 reduction on Sky's package including sport in HD - down from £83.50 per month to £73.00 per month by complaining that they were offering Sky sports to existing subscribers at £18 per month rather than £27.50 to those of us who have subscribed loyally for years.
It is worth making bit of a fuss
Mind you I have BT infinity so I get all the european matches on their platform for £3.50 per month
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Pay awards concentrated toward coalface blue lights would get the thumbs up here too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), I think the OBR said it would be a 9BN cost in the final year of the parliament and rather less each year before then, because fewer years' cumulative cap vs no-cap margin.Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:snip
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels0 -
To be fair, if the EU were merely a customs union you would have a point, but it isn't and never has been. It is a political union.Charles said:
It's not banal. It's an important reason why the UK has historically opposed customs unions from the Zollverien onwardswilliamglenn said:
It's a completely banal point unless he is also arguing against the nation state. It's just a question of how widely the borders are drawn.Charles said:
His fundamental point - a customs union is inimical to global free trade - is undoubtedly right thoughFF43 said:
Actually the more interesting point he made, that the EU is an agent of economic nationalism, is wholly wrong. That misunderstanding doesn't bode well for the good Brexit deal he is supposedly working for as Brexit Minister.williamglenn said:
Wishing the EU to disappear in a peaceful way is logical. If that happens (and there is no reason to believe it will in short order) the Brexit problem goes away.0 -
I thought the 1% pay rise had been debunked, and that people actually get more than that?foxinsoxuk said:
One of many paradoxes of the public sector cap is that by taking early retirement, I can have a pension that goes up by RPI, but by continuing to work I gain no more pension. The 2% real terms annual pay cut caused by 3% inflation outweighs any extra pension gained. There is a direct incentive to retire for all senior grades, at a time when recruitment is a major problem.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), I think the OBR said it would be a 9BN cost in the final year of the parliament and rather less each year before then, because fewer years' cumulative cap vs no-cap margin.Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
The amount of the increase and how it is raised will be fascinating. The IFS just said that there is not enough money in labour's policy to tax the rich and corporations and that everyone will have to see their taxes increase, or experience big cuts in spending or very heavy borrowing.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels0 -
If there is one thing guaranteed to increase the majority of IDS it is having to answer the door to a bunch of Corbynistas when you are trying to sunbathe in the garden in the middle of July!RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.0 -
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)0 -
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
Born within 5 miles of Old Trafford and having lived through Munich in 1958 and having been in the Camp Nou with my daughter and son in law when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wrote himself into history it is the glorious Man Utd not the young pretenders that I supporttyson said:
If Man City go far and long...then your BT infinity deal is well worth the outlay.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Tyson - thought I would share it on here as the football season is not far away.tyson said:
Well done Big Man....I wish sports were free on terrestrial TV...Big_G_NorthWales said:Re football - just managed to get a £10.50 reduction on Sky's package including sport in HD - down from £83.50 per month to £73.00 per month by complaining that they were offering Sky sports to existing subscribers at £18 per month rather than £27.50 to those of us who have subscribed loyally for years.
It is worth making bit of a fuss
Mind you I have BT infinity so I get all the european matches on their platform for £3.50 per month0 -
Yer what?Charles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
I'm sure you want to change the latter part of your second sentence.0 -
Sure. But Baker's speech was to the Libertarian Alliance on the EU and Fred tradewilliamglenn said:
To be fair, if the EU were merely a customs union you would have a point, but it isn't and never has been. It is a political union.Charles said:
It's not banal. It's an important reason why the UK has historically opposed customs unions from the Zollverien onwardswilliamglenn said:
It's a completely banal point unless he is also arguing against the nation state. It's just a question of how widely the borders are drawn.Charles said:
His fundamental point - a customs union is inimical to global free trade - is undoubtedly right thoughFF43 said:
Actually the more interesting point he made, that the EU is an agent of economic nationalism, is wholly wrong. That misunderstanding doesn't bode well for the good Brexit deal he is supposedly working for as Brexit Minister.williamglenn said:
Wishing the EU to disappear in a peaceful way is logical. If that happens (and there is no reason to believe it will in short order) the Brexit problem goes away.0 -
Looks like the thickies will take over imo and save the world to bootCharles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
Yorkshire men are outright softies who run nail bars so they can never be the Starks
your analysis of the Lannisters shows we agree theyre Londoners
Baelsih is a Dubliner - London without the jellied eels0 -
Never had anything like $1trn before but I agree it depends upon the conditionality that Trump manages to impose.Charles said:
In the past tax amnesties have had bugger all impact on growth. They get spent on share but backs and other low multiplier itemsDavidL said:Somewhat off topic, if not as much as kebabs, I had an interesting meeting with the fund managers looking after our corporate pension fund today. The take away point was that there is more than a trillion dollars of essentially untaxed money from US companies that their corporates cannot get into the US. $230bn from Apple alone. Trump is going to offer a window in which that money can be brought onshore for a highly advantageous tax rate with conditions that the money is invested in US industry. The effect should be QE on stilts with very positive effects on the USD and the rust bucket states. It may well lead to Trump's reelection and should fuel US growth. It will be a significant problem for Europe and London as a lot of the hot money there disappears.
I was told this should be in place by October. Might be well worth putting a bet on Trump in 2020 before then.0 -
The number of increments is reduced in the new contracts, with no automatic progression.RobD said:
I thought the 1% pay rise had been debunked, and that people actually get more than that?foxinsoxuk said:
One of many paradoxes of the public sector cap is that by taking early retirement, I can have a pension that goes up by RPI, but by continuing to work I gain no more pension. The 2% real terms annual pay cut caused by 3% inflation outweighs any extra pension gained. There is a direct incentive to retire for all senior grades, at a time when recruitment is a major problem.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), I think the OBR said it would be a 9BN cost in the final year of the parliament and rather less each year before then, because fewer years' cumulative cap vs no-cap margin.Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
The amount of the increase and how it is raised will be fascinating. The IFS just said that there is not enough money in labour's policy to tax the rich and corporations and that everyone will have to see their taxes increase, or experience big cuts in spending or very heavy borrowing.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels
Down banding with time limited pay protection often results in nominal pay cuts.
0 -
But if you retire you'll start voting Conservativefoxinsoxuk said:
One of many paradoxes of the public sector cap is that by taking early retirement, I can have a pension that goes up by RPI, but by continuing to work I gain no more pension. The 2% real terms annual pay cut caused by 3% inflation outweighs any extra pension gained. There is a direct incentive to retire for all senior grades, at a time when recruitment is a major problem.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), I think the OBR said it would be a 9BN cost in the final year of the parliament and rather less each year before then, because fewer years' cumulative cap vs no-cap margin.Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
The amount of the increase and how it is raised will be fascinating. The IFS just said that there is not enough money in labour's policy to tax the rich and corporations and that everyone will have to see their taxes increase, or experience big cuts in spending or very heavy borrowing.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels
0 -
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
0
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Looks like half got above inflation pay rises - https://fullfact.org/health/are-nhs-workers-getting-4-pay-rise/foxinsoxuk said:
The number of increments is reduced in the new contracts, with no automatic progression.
Down banding with time limited pay protection often results in nominal pay cuts.0 -
Only if we unilaterally, and unlike every other large economy, drop all customs and trade barriers. Being part of a customs union implies we are not going to do that for outer trade. We are for inner trade. The obvious problem remains. The other parties haven't dropped their trade barriers and those countries that were in the Single Market with us will apply new barriers. We are clearly more interested in what happens to our stuff than their stuff.Charles said:
No: it internalises some of the gains from free trade to the members while reducing the likelihood of a global deal.FF43 said:
That's wrong. The barriers are the same to the outer world whether the line is drawn at national borders or at the outer edge of the customs union. Inside the customs union however the trade is free. If we take the UK as an example it's the difference between 50% free trade (to the EU) and 50% not free (to RoW) compared with 100% (to EU and RoW). For simplicity I make a binary distinction between free and not free , but trade within the SIngle Market will always be free-er than outside it.Charles said:
His fundamental point - a customs union is inimical to global free trade - is undoubtedly right thoughFF43 said:
Actually the more interesting point he made, that the EU is an agent of economic nationalism, is wholly wrong. That misunderstanding doesn't bode well for the good Brexit deal he is supposedly working for as Brexit Minister.williamglenn said:
Wishing the EU to disappear in a peaceful way is logical. If that happens (and there is no reason to believe it will in short order) the Brexit problem goes away.
Unless the customs union is fully autarkial it will be net net worse off than under free trade. And the world as a whole will be much worse off.
It's like claiming sago is an adequate substitute for rice pudding
Your point about reducing the likelihood of a global trade deal applies much more to country to country preferential trade agreements than it does to regional ones (although it applies somewhat to regional PTAs). The first are a lot more distorting in terms of trade substitution.0 -
Always knew you were a sound chap.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Born within 5 miles of Old Trafford and having lived through Munich in 1958 and having been in the Camp Nou with my daughter and son in law when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wrote himself into history it is the glorious Man Utd not the young pretenders that I supporttyson said:
If Man City go far and long...then your BT infinity deal is well worth the outlay.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Tyson - thought I would share it on here as the football season is not far away.tyson said:
Well done Big Man....I wish sports were free on terrestrial TV...Big_G_NorthWales said:Re football - just managed to get a £10.50 reduction on Sky's package including sport in HD - down from £83.50 per month to £73.00 per month by complaining that they were offering Sky sports to existing subscribers at £18 per month rather than £27.50 to those of us who have subscribed loyally for years.
It is worth making bit of a fuss
Mind you I have BT infinity so I get all the european matches on their platform for £3.50 per month0 -
Sorry, you are right.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what?Charles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
I'm sure you want to change the latter part of your second sentence.
For "at the end of the day" please read "all day long"0 -
try getting a Yorkshireman to spell "IQ"Charles said:
Sorry, you are right.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what?Charles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
I'm sure you want to change the latter part of your second sentence.
For "at the end of the day" please read "all day long"0 -
Greetings from Praha.
Just wanted to say that comparing Corbyn to these people is frankly offensive. Wake up.0 -
Indeed - a lifetime of support in good days and bad - when we were winning everything under Alex I went into a meeting with Sir Bobby Charlton no less, who made the wise observations to enjoy the success as football always comes with ups and downsDavidL said:
Always knew you were a sound chap.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Born within 5 miles of Old Trafford and having lived through Munich in 1958 and having been in the Camp Nou with my daughter and son in law when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wrote himself into history it is the glorious Man Utd not the young pretenders that I supporttyson said:
If Man City go far and long...then your BT infinity deal is well worth the outlay.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Tyson - thought I would share it on here as the football season is not far away.tyson said:
Well done Big Man....I wish sports were free on terrestrial TV...Big_G_NorthWales said:Re football - just managed to get a £10.50 reduction on Sky's package including sport in HD - down from £83.50 per month to £73.00 per month by complaining that they were offering Sky sports to existing subscribers at £18 per month rather than £27.50 to those of us who have subscribed loyally for years.
It is worth making bit of a fuss
Mind you I have BT infinity so I get all the european matches on their platform for £3.50 per month0 -
Homeland Investment Act 2004. $299bn repatriated. 92% went on dividends/buybacks.DavidL said:
Never had anything like $1trn before but I agree it depends upon the conditionality that Trump manages to impose.Charles said:
In the past tax amnesties have had bugger all impact on growth. They get spent on share but backs and other low multiplier itemsDavidL said:Somewhat off topic, if not as much as kebabs, I had an interesting meeting with the fund managers looking after our corporate pension fund today. The take away point was that there is more than a trillion dollars of essentially untaxed money from US companies that their corporates cannot get into the US. $230bn from Apple alone. Trump is going to offer a window in which that money can be brought onshore for a highly advantageous tax rate with conditions that the money is invested in US industry. The effect should be QE on stilts with very positive effects on the USD and the rust bucket states. It may well lead to Trump's reelection and should fuel US growth. It will be a significant problem for Europe and London as a lot of the hot money there disappears.
I was told this should be in place by October. Might be well worth putting a bet on Trump in 2020 before then.
"Repatriations did not lead to an increase in domestic investment, employment or R&D" study cited in NYT article by Floyd Norris June 4, 20090 -
Public service pensions have been linked to CPI not RPI since Osborne sneakily changed it in 2010.This costs the average pensioner by £25,000 according to the TUC.I know this as I calculated my own loss to be £40,000 should I live to my expected age of death given to me by my GP.The Tories have always been thieves and remain thieves.foxinsoxuk said:
One of many paradoxes of the public sector cap is that by taking early retirement, I can have a pension that goes up by RPI, but by continuing to work I gain no more pension. The 2% real terms annual pay cut caused by 3% inflation outweighs any extra pension gained. There is a direct incentive to retire for all senior grades, at a time when recruitment is a major problem.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), I think the OBR said it would be a 9BN cost in the final year of the parliament and rather less each year before then, because fewer years' cumulative cap vs no-cap margin.Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
The amount of the increase and how it is raised will be fascinating. The IFS just said that there is not enough money in labour's policy to tax the rich and corporations and that everyone will have to see their taxes increase, or experience big cuts in spending or very heavy borrowing.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels0 -
Only by being promoted!RobD said:
Looks like half got above inflation pay rises - https://fullfact.org/health/are-nhs-workers-getting-4-pay-rise/foxinsoxuk said:
The number of increments is reduced in the new contracts, with no automatic progression.
Down banding with time limited pay protection often results in nominal pay cuts.
Most NHs posts have 6 or so points in the pay band, so a Health care assistant Band 2 will reach the maximum after 6 years experience. That is as high as they can go (without retraining for another role).
https://www.rcn.org.uk/employment-and-pay/nhs-pay-scales-2016-17
The figures in your fact sheet are only true for those in junior roles. The percentages are high just because so many are very junior, and do not stick around in the job.
One reason that recruitment and retention is such an issue in health care is that careers are short, often only a few years post qualification.
I am on the top increment now so can not get promoted.
0 -
You're lucky that I'm not one of PB's snowflakes who gets upset when people call them thick.Charles said:
Sorry, you are right.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what?Charles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
I'm sure you want to change the latter part of your second sentence.
For "at the end of the day" please read "all day long"0 -
-
That's because you don't understand what I'm saying...TheScreamingEagles said:
You're lucky that I'm not one of PB's snowflakes who gets upset when people call them thick.Charles said:
Sorry, you are right.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what?Charles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
I'm sure you want to change the latter part of your second sentence.
For "at the end of the day" please read "all day long"
Edit: and you're not a real Yorkshireman anyway...0 -
My mistake, but the principle of my argument remains. It makes financial sense for me to retire as soon as I can.volcanopete said:
Public service pensions have been linked to CPI not RPI since Osborne sneakily changed it in 2010.This costs the average pensioner by £25,000 according to the TUC.I know this as I calculated my own loss to be £40,000 should I live to my expected age of death given to me by my GP.The Tories have always been thieves and remain thieves.foxinsoxuk said:
One of many paradoxes of the public sector cap is that by taking early retirement, I can have a pension that goes up by RPI, but by continuing to work I gain no more pension. The 2% real terms annual pay cut caused by 3% inflation outweighs any extra pension gained. There is a direct incentive to retire for all senior grades, at a time when recruitment is a major problem.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), IBenpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
The amount of the increase and how it is raised will be fascinating. The IFS just said that there is not enough money in labour's policy to tax the rich and corporations and that everyone will have to see their taxes increase, or experience big cuts in spending or very heavy borrowing.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels
I can then return to work as a locum if I choose.0 -
That's fighting talk.Charles said:
That's because you don't understand what I'm saying...TheScreamingEagles said:
You're lucky that I'm not one of PB's snowflakes who gets upset when people call them thick.Charles said:
Sorry, you are right.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what?Charles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
I'm sure you want to change the latter part of your second sentence.
For "at the end of the day" please read "all day long"
Edit: and you're not a real Yorkshireman anyway...0 -
Because Corbyn's anti-semitism is just a bit of harmless fun, presumably.Monksfield said:Greetings from Praha.
Just wanted to say that comparing Corbyn to these people is frankly offensive. Wake up.
0 -
-
I think you mean Greg Rusedskitlg86 said:
He moved here to play tennis. It's like the Adnan Januzaj case.Sunil_Prasannan said:
He has been a British citizen since March 2015.tlg86 said:Some guy who isn't really British has just knocked out Ivo Karlovic.
0 -
As a Huddersfield season ticket holder I am still in a state of disbelief. We have already spent 16million on three players with a couple of 10 million signings about to be announced. All are current international players. With a canny chairman and an inspirational manager we could go far.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't think 'pool will do well this year. Thie gegen press style combined with Chamions Leage will wear and injure them out by Christmas.isam said:
Michael Keane would probably get in Liverpool's teamTheScreamingEagles said:@Dixiedean = Mignolet kept Sunderland in the Premier League, Pickford saw Sunderland relegated
Huddersfield for top 10 wouldn't surprise me though.0 -
You have a southern softie as your avatar QEDTheScreamingEagles said:
That's fighting talk.Charles said:
That's because you don't understand what I'm saying...TheScreamingEagles said:
You're lucky that I'm not one of PB's snowflakes who gets upset when people call them thick.Charles said:
Sorry, you are right.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what?Charles said:
The Starks are Yorkshiremen. Honourable to a fault, but really quite thick at the end of the day.Alanbrooke said:
sheeshCharles said:
I'd have thought the Lannisters would be DUPpersAlanbrooke said:
they've beeen cut out of the programme because of the DUPCharles said:
The reason why it's been so long is that because Winter is Coming they had to wait for grim conditions to start filming.Alanbrooke said:
pah who cares ?isam said:
If there is a group comparable with 1930s Nazis in modern Britain, it is Muslim extremistsIshmael_Z said:The "Brownshirts" comparison is compelling. How easily we forget that 1930s Berlin was plagued by radical Judaists detonating themselves in crowded places with cries of "Jahweh is the greatest".
Game of Thrones is back, the only politics that counts
The Northern Ireland bits were shot last August
it's now called It Aint half hot Mum
Starks obviously - theyre in the North
or possibly Snows - Northern Bastards
The Lannisters live in London
The Lannisters are greedy incestuous bastards who no one like
(Baelish is a Londoner. And Martin borrowed my family's name for part of his backstory - one of his extinct royal families)
I'm sure you want to change the latter part of your second sentence.
For "at the end of the day" please read "all day long"
Edit: and you're not a real Yorkshireman anyway...0 -
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
I will, next time I see himBig_G_NorthWales said:
I agree with you but I think you need to ask Corbyn why he rejected such a progressive measure along with the dementia tax.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:
Yes, although I think Big G is qualitatively right (hugely expensive, not costed, would be unwelcome question for LAB), I think the OBR said it would be a 9BN cost in the final year of the parliament and rather less each year before then, because fewer years' cumulative cap vs no-cap margin.Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels
My point was if pensioners need protecting why don't public servants? The Labour manifesto wanted to protect both, which has a degree of constistency.
Incidently Labour's manifesto costed the removal of the pay cap at £4bn over 4 years.
I'd still like to see your source... I believe public sector total pay is circa £170bn pa. Inflation would have to run at 3.25% for the 5 years of this parliament to cause an incremental cost of £40bn (and that would not be a 'real' incremental cost of course.) If inflation does that, the 1% pay cap would be untenable anyway. Plus tax revenues would be increasing by 3.25%.
Regarding the 200,000 extra employes, according to the ONS number of public sector workers in March 2014 = 5.409 million; in March 2017 5.424 million. Net increase 13,000.
0 -
That's the Chairman of the Northern Powerhouse.Charles said:You have a southern softie as your avatar QED
0 -
I hope you do - pity Denis Law is not in his primeslade said:
As a Huddersfield season ticket holder I am still in a state of disbelief. We have already spent 16million on three players with a couple of 10 million signings about to be announced. All are current international players. With a canny chairman and an inspirational manager we could go far.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't think 'pool will do well this year. Thie gegen press style combined with Chamions Leage will wear and injure them out by Christmas.isam said:
Michael Keane would probably get in Liverpool's teamTheScreamingEagles said:@Dixiedean = Mignolet kept Sunderland in the Premier League, Pickford saw Sunderland relegated
Huddersfield for top 10 wouldn't surprise me though.0 -
Given how unstable the government is, I don't blame Labour for being ready for another GE at short notice. And IDS is a viable targetRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.0 -
Confirmed, £50 at 7/2 that Everton finish above Liverpool, with any winnings on my part donated to the site.TheScreamingEagles said:
Agreed.nigel4england said:
So are you not offering me odds then?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Skybet are offering 7/2 on Everton finishing higher than Liverpool if you want to bet on that, that seems fair to me, especially if as it seems Everton sell Lukaku to your lot, and Liverpool are going to spend close to £200 million in the next few weeks.nigel4england said:
TSE, what odds will you give me that Everton finish above Liverpool?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Pickford's a very good player, my only concern is we've seen it before, a young promising English goalkeeper gets signed for big money and they kinda regress.dixiedean said:
Think that may be epic over simplification. Ask a SAFC fan which one they rate.TheScreamingEagles said:@Dixiedean = Mignolet kept Sunderland in the Premier League, Pickford saw Sunderland relegated
Richard Wright, Chris Kirkland, those sorts of players. There are others.
I would much rather have the bet with you as I don't have to tie my money up for almost a year, say £50 at 7/2 and I will donate any winnings to the site.
For the record, I'm worried about Liverpool, I can see us screwing up the play off match and tumbling into the Europa league, that's not a great way to start the season.
I think Liverpool will come flying out of the blocks same as last season when they murdered Chelsea at the Bridge, but as someone upthread said the pressing style will catch up with them eventually.
Is Sturridge still there or has he signed for Holby City yet?0 -
Yeh, surprise surprise, no one wants to lose seats.IanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
Sorry, but this just doesn't make sense. The government has a majority with the DUP. An election is in no way imminent.not_on_fire said:
Given how unstable the government is, I don't blame Labour for being ready for another GE at short notice. And IDS is a viable targetRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
What is it about lefties and figures?
0 -
Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
I think demographics will do it for IDS and Boris and quite a few other Tory MPs in London quite soon - maybe even as soon as 2022.HYUFD said:
If there is one thing guaranteed to increase the majority of IDS it is having to answer the door to a bunch of Corbynistas when you are trying to sunbathe in the garden in the middle of July!RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The white middle class Tory demographic is now restricted to a couple of solid wards in north Chingford and Woodford. More and more flats are being built in the south of the seat occupied by private renters which is essentially becoming north Walthamstow. And you saw the landslide Stella Creasy won by there.
I wouldn't be surprised if both look for safer seats quite soon - outside the capital.0 -
While I am pessimistic for Leicester at the moment, the players are just returning this week. Lots of comings and goings to come so I will not place season bets yet. I tend to leave it to the end of August. It was about Aug 20th 2015 that I put £1 each way at 3000/1 on Leicester winning the PL. Also £2 at 150/1 on a top 4 place. They had come out of the blocks flying, after a very poor summer (Pearson sacked, Cambiasso going, racist sex orgy etc).nigel4england said:
Confirmed, £50 at 7/2 that Everton finish above Liverpool, with any winnings on my part donated to the site.TheScreamingEagles said:
Agreed.nigel4england said:
So are you not offering me odds then?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Skybet are offering 7/2 on Everton finishing higher than Liverpool if you want to bet on that, that seems fair to me, especially if as it seems Everton sell Lukaku to your lot, and Liverpool are going to spend close to £200 million in the next few weeks.nigel4england said:
TSE, what odds will you give me that Everton finish above Liverpool?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Pickford's a very good player, my only concern is we've seen it before, a young promising English goalkeeper gets signed for big money and they kinda regress.dixiedean said:
Think that may be epic over simplification. Ask a SAFC fan which one they rate.TheScreamingEagles said:@Dixiedean = Mignolet kept Sunderland in the Premier League, Pickford saw Sunderland relegated
Richard Wright, Chris Kirkland, those sorts of players. There are others.
I would much rather have the bet with you as I don't have to tie my money up for almost a year, say £50 at 7/2 and I will donate any winnings to the site.
For the record, I'm worried about Liverpool, I can see us screwing up the play off match and tumbling into the Europa league, that's not a great way to start the season.
I think Liverpool will come flying out of the blocks same as last season when they murdered Chelsea at the Bridge, but as someone upthread said the pressing style will catch up with them eventually.
Is Sturridge still there or has he signed for Holby City yet?0 -
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
Enfield Southgate is now a Labour seat!HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
Erm, I'm not a leftie.RoyalBlue said:
Sorry, but this just doesn't make sense. The government has a majority with the DUP. An election is in no way imminent.not_on_fire said:
Given how unstable the government is, I don't blame Labour for being ready for another GE at short notice. And IDS is a viable targetRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
What is it about lefties and figures?
The Cons only have a majority on confidence and supply votes. Anything else is fair game. It's easy to see something coming up, probably Brexit related that causes it to fall apart.
After all, May called the election because her actual majority of 12 wasn't enough to get Brexit through0 -
@faisalislam: ... note warns Big pharma of "legal repercussions" of Brexit including moving marketing authorisation/other functions from UK to EU or EEA
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8819870964073635860 -
Seems reasonable, with time off for everyone she grasses on.isam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
Give her a 1-bedroom flat in Jaywickisam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
-
Thought treason is the only remaining capital offencefoxinsoxuk said:
Seems reasonable, with time off for everyone she grasses on.isam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
I have a mate who is also a season ticket holder, he gives me updates on the Chelsea loanees.slade said:
As a Huddersfield season ticket holder I am still in a state of disbelief. We have already spent 16million on three players with a couple of 10 million signings about to be announced. All are current international players. With a canny chairman and an inspirational manager we could go far.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't think 'pool will do well this year. Thie gegen press style combined with Chamions Leage will wear and injure them out by Christmas.isam said:
Michael Keane would probably get in Liverpool's teamTheScreamingEagles said:@Dixiedean = Mignolet kept Sunderland in the Premier League, Pickford saw Sunderland relegated
Huddersfield for top 10 wouldn't surprise me though.
Seems that Izzy Brown will sign a permanent deal and Kasey Palmer may stay on loan next season?0 -
If the Tories win most seats they should still win both Chingford and Uxbridge though Ilford North and Enfield North are now probably gone to the Tories for good short of a 1983 or 1997 style landslidebrendan16 said:
I think demographics will do it for IDS and Boris and quite a few other Tory MPs in London quite soon - maybe even as soon as 2022.HYUFD said:
If there is one thing guaranteed to increase the majority of IDS it is having to answer the door to a bunch of Corbynistas when you are trying to sunbathe in the garden in the middle of July!RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The white middle class Tory demographic is now restricted to a couple of solid wards in north Chingford and Woodford. More and more flats are being built in the south of the seat occupied by private renters which is essentially becoming north Walthamstow. And you saw the landslide Stella Creasy won by there.
I wouldn't be surprised if both look for safer seats quite soon - outside the capital.0 -
No longer, abolished under New Labour.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thought treason is the only remaining capital offencefoxinsoxuk said:
Seems reasonable, with time off for everyone she grasses on.isam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
Yes so if the Tories won it back and held Thurrock and Chingford they would be heading for a small overall majoritynot_on_fire said:
Enfield Southgate is now a Labour seat!HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
Brexit does not need to go through until 2019not_on_fire said:
Erm, I'm not a leftie.RoyalBlue said:
Sorry, but this just doesn't make sense. The government has a majority with the DUP. An election is in no way imminent.not_on_fire said:
Given how unstable the government is, I don't blame Labour for being ready for another GE at short notice. And IDS is a viable targetRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
What is it about lefties and figures?
The Cons only have a majority on confidence and supply votes. Anything else is fair game. It's easy to see something coming up, probably Brexit related that causes it to fall apart.
After all, May called the election because her actual majority of 12 wasn't enough to get Brexit through0 -
That is, from your point of view, insanely optimisticHYUFD said:
Brexit does not need to go through until 2019not_on_fire said:
Erm, I'm not a leftie.RoyalBlue said:
Sorry, but this just doesn't make sense. The government has a majority with the DUP. An election is in no way imminent.not_on_fire said:
Given how unstable the government is, I don't blame Labour for being ready for another GE at short notice. And IDS is a viable targetRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
What is it about lefties and figures?
The Cons only have a majority on confidence and supply votes. Anything else is fair game. It's easy to see something coming up, probably Brexit related that causes it to fall apart.
After all, May called the election because her actual majority of 12 wasn't enough to get Brexit through0 -
The South will riseTheScreamingEagles said:
That's the Chairman of the Northern Powerhouse.Charles said:You have a southern softie as your avatar QED
The South will rise
The South is gonna rise again!0 -
Epping Forest also has elections next year as do about a third of non London councils in England but as far as London goes it will be trying to resist the tide, I expect Havering, Bexley and Bromley will stay blue, I would not be surprised if Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Wandsworth went to NOC, inner London was almost a wipeout for the Tories at the general election but there are still a few more patches of blur in the suburbsIanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing d more effectively.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/881987771195371520
FWIW, another rat leaves the sinking HMS Brexit.0 -
Cummings ran the Vote Leave campaign, if anyone is responsible for Brexit it is him so he made his bed and can now lie in itfoxinsoxuk said:https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/881987771195371520
FWIW, another rat leaves the sinking HMS Brexit.0 -
No it is a statement of fact that Brexit talks are underway and will not conclude until mid 2019IanB2 said:
That is, from your point of view, insanely optimisticHYUFD said:
Brexit does not need to go through until 2019not_on_fire said:
Erm, I'm not a leftie.RoyalBlue said:
Sorry, but this just doesn't make sense. The government has a majority with the DUP. An election is in no way imminent.not_on_fire said:
Given how unstable the government is, I don't blame Labour for being ready for another GE at short notice. And IDS is a viable targetRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
What is it about lefties and figures?
The Cons only have a majority on confidence and supply votes. Anything else is fair game. It's easy to see something coming up, probably Brexit related that causes it to fall apart.
After all, May called the election because her actual majority of 12 wasn't enough to get Brexit through0 -
The Tories would hold Barnet, Havering, K & C, Bromley, Bexley, on 2017's numbers. Hillingdon, and Sutton would be very tight.IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as youRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.
I expect K & C is now vulnerable, but Wandsworth and Westminster will be held in local election conditions.0 -
Johnny English got it wrongfoxinsoxuk said:
No longer, abolished under New Labour.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thought treason is the only remaining capital offencefoxinsoxuk said:
Seems reasonable, with time off for everyone she grasses on.isam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/881982805621735426 0 -
And those Boroughs where you have previously been in contention with significant opposition groups will be reduced to small rumps.HYUFD said:
Epping Forest also has elections next year as do about a third of non London councils in England but as far as London goes it will be trying to resist the tide, I expect Havering, Bexley and Bromley will stay blue, I would not be surprised if Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Wandsworth went to NOC, inner London was almost a wipeout for the Tories at the general election but there are still a few more patches of blur in the suburbsIanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing d more effectively.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
Blimey he has broken the Remain rule "Be partisan at all times and never admit the other side could have a point"foxinsoxuk said:https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/881987771195371520
FWIW, another rat leaves the sinking HMS Brexit.0 -
Confidence votes are the only thing that could cause an early election. The FTPA has changed everything. Tory MPs do not want an early election.not_on_fire said:
Erm, I'm not a leftie.RoyalBlue said:
Sorry, but this just doesn't make sense. The government has a majority with the DUP. An election is in no way imminent.not_on_fire said:
Given how unstable the government is, I don't blame Labour for being ready for another GE at short notice. And IDS is a viable targetRoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
What is it about lefties and figures?
The Cons only have a majority on confidence and supply votes. Anything else is fair game. It's easy to see something coming up, probably Brexit related that causes it to fall apart.
After all, May called the election because her actual majority of 12 wasn't enough to get Brexit through
The Government can lose other votes (including the Finance Bill!) and no election is triggered.0 -
I didn't know thatfoxinsoxuk said:
No longer, abolished under New Labour.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thought treason is the only remaining capital offencefoxinsoxuk said:
Seems reasonable, with time off for everyone she grasses on.isam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8819828056217354260 -
Ilford North used to be theHYUFD said:
If the Tories win most seats they should still win both Chingford and Uxbridge though Ilford North and Enfield North are now probably gone to the Tories for good short of a 1983 or 1997 style landslidebrendan16 said:
I think demographics will do it for IDS and Boris and quite a few other Tory MPs in London quite soon - maybe even as soon as 2022.HYUFD said:
If there is one thing guaranteed to increase the majority of IDS it is having to answer the door to a bunch of Corbynistas when you are trying to sunbathe in the garden in the middle of July!RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The white middle class Tory demographic is now restricted to a couple of solid wards in north Chingford and Woodford. More and more flats are being built in the south of the seat occupied by private renters which is essentially becoming north Walthamstow. And you saw the landslide Stella Creasy won by there.
I wouldn't be surprised if both look for safer seats quite soon - outside the capital.niceTory end of Ilford
0 -
I think Labour may struggle to match the 55% it won in London, next time. London has swung by 1.5% to Labour, since 1997, whereas the country has swung 7.5% to the Conservatives. But, there's a Conservative core vote in London.brendan16 said:
I think demographics will do it for IDS and Boris and quite a few other Tory MPs in London quite soon - maybe even as soon as 2022.HYUFD said:
If there is one thing guaranteed to increase the majority of IDS it is having to answer the door to a bunch of Corbynistas when you are trying to sunbathe in the garden in the middle of July!RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The white middle class Tory demographic is now restricted to a couple of solid wards in north Chingford and Woodford. More and more flats are being built in the south of the seat occupied by private renters which is essentially becoming north Walthamstow. And you saw the landslide Stella Creasy won by there.
I wouldn't be surprised if both look for safer seats quite soon - outside the capital.
0 -
-
Cummings = c***.foxinsoxuk said:https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/881987771195371520
FWIW, another rat leaves the sinking HMS Brexit.
It's actually £163 million a week (Net);0 -
Havering is already NOC. (Edited!)IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.
I think Bromley, Bexley and Barnet are safe. I don't know enough about local politics in the other boroughs, but I think the Tories have a good chance in Westminster, Richmond, Wandsworth and Hillingdon.0 -
Of those, Kensington must be very dicey for obvious reasons; I would expect Barnet to go Labour, Sutton to stay LD, Bexley and Hillingdon the Tories will at least lose control. Wandsworth looks lost given the GE results. Havering, Bromley and Westminster will probably hang on but with smaller majorities than now. Richmond will go LD and in Kingston Tories will lose to both opposition parties.Sean_F said:
The Tories would hold Barnet, Havering, K & C, Bromley, Bexley, on 2017's numbers. Hillingdon, and Sutton would be very tight.IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.RoyalBlue said:.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.
I expect K & C is now vulnerable, but Wandsworth and Westminster will be held in local election conditions.0 -
Anxiety Over Brexit
“Brexit Anxiety” has been a theme of recent polling on the topic and a lack of confidence in whether the government will secure a good deal for Britain is apparent:
Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
I am confident that the UK government will secure a good Brexit deal for the UK, once negotiations are complete - 38%
I am not confident that the UK government will secure a good Brexit deal for the UK, once negotiations are complete - 49%
Don’t know - 13%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Conservative / DUP Arrangement
Finally, the Conservative party’s confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP, is off to a poor start in terms of public opinion. Whether this is due to the public’s general dislike of coalition that was seen in the 2010 parliament or aspects more specific to the DUP were not covered in detail. It is worth noting that our pre-election polling (page 44) showed a dislike of non-majority parties in government.
Do you agree or disagree with the Conservative Party entering into a confidence and supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party, whereby the DUP’s MPs will support the Conservative government on key votes in the House of Commons?
Agree 32%
Disagree 57%
Don’t know 11%
Full tables are available here.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Final-Daily-Record-Tables-1c0d1h7.pdf0 -
1998, though it hadn't been used since 1945, and then perhaps unfairly as Lord Haw Haw was Irish:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I didn't know thatfoxinsoxuk said:
No longer, abolished under New Labour.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thought treason is the only remaining capital offencefoxinsoxuk said:
Seems reasonable, with time off for everyone she grasses on.isam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/881982805621735426
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/oct/17/treason-act-facts-british-extremists-iraq-syria-isis0 -
Well the voters forced a hung parliament so tough and still give the Tories the lead with the same pollsterTheScreamingEagles said:Anxiety Over Brexit
“Brexit Anxiety” has been a theme of recent polling on the topic and a lack of confidence in whether the government will secure a good deal for Britain is apparent:
Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
I am confident that the UK government will secure a good Brexit deal for the UK, once negotiations are complete - 38%
I am not confident that the UK government will secure a good Brexit deal for the UK, once negotiations are complete - 49%
Don’t know - 13%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Conservative / DUP Arrangement
Finally, the Conservative party’s confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP, is off to a poor start in terms of public opinion. Whether this is due to the public’s general dislike of coalition that was seen in the 2010 parliament or aspects more specific to the DUP were not covered in detail. It is worth noting that our pre-election polling (page 44) showed a dislike of non-majority parties in government.
Do you agree or disagree with the Conservative Party entering into a confidence and supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party, whereby the DUP’s MPs will support the Conservative government on key votes in the House of Commons?
Agree 32%
Disagree 57%
Don’t know 11%
Full tables are available here.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Final-Daily-Record-Tables-1c0d1h7.pdf0 -
Enough of the "residents" councillors are proto-Tories that effectively Havering is a Conservative Borough with a Tory council leader.RoyalBlue said:
In order for the Conservatives to lose Havering, it would help if they actually held it now (they don't).IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.
I think Bromley, Bexley and Barnet are safe. I don't know enough about local politics in the other boroughs, but I think the Tories have a good chance in Westminster, Richmond, Wandsworth and Hillingdon.0 -
I am not at all a fan of Corbyn but I think equating him with Waters is grossly unfair to him.0
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Is there any evidence?isam said:
Try her for treason then if possCharles said:
Technically you can't under international law. And the law matters.isam said:Emily Thornberry would say we can't make this woman stateless. Any view?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/881982805621735426
Story says she left the UK in 2004 to live with her husband who is now dead. She wants to return but if being prevented from doing so by ISIS0 -
Jewish voters ensured Finchley stayed Tory and may keep Barnet blue, they despise Corbyn, Richmond was won by the Tories at the general election otherwise looks plausibleIanB2 said:
Of those, Kensington must be very dicey for obvious reasons; I would expect Barnet to go Labour, Sutton to stay LD, Bexley and Hillingdon the Tories will at least lose control. Wandsworth looks lost given the GE results. Havering, Bromley and Westminster will probably hang on but with smaller majorities than now. Richmond will go LD and in Kingston Tories will lose to both opposition parties.Sean_F said:
The Tories would hold Barnet, Havering, K & C, Bromley, Bexley, on 2017's numbers. Hillingdon, and Sutton would be very tight.IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want d Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.RoyalBlue said:.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.
I expect K & C is now vulnerable, but Wandsworth and Westminster will be held in local election conditions.0 -
Forgive me - have corrected my original post.IanB2 said:
Enough of the "residents" councillors are proto-Tories that effectively Havering is a Conservative Borough with a Tory council leader.RoyalBlue said:
In order for the Conservatives to lose Havering, it would help if they actually held it now (they don't).IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
I think Bromley, Bexley and Barnet are safe. I don't know enough about local politics in the other boroughs, but I think the Tories have a good chance in Westminster, Richmond, Wandsworth and Hillingdon.
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The most reasonable figure to use is £285 million a week. That is the gross figure ignoring the rebate which we never pay in the first place.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cummings = c***.foxinsoxuk said:https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/881987771195371520
FWIW, another rat leaves the sinking HMS Brexit.
It's actually £163 million a week (Net);0 -
That sounds like the 2015 general election.IanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
We do not know how long this government will last, it keeps the canvassing team going and canvassing outside election time can be done more leisurely. It brings its own rewards as you gain kudos by being interested between elections, and have a good database to go back to.RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.0 -
Havering had a big UKIP vote in 2014 which will mainly go to the Tories next yearRoyalBlue said:
Havering is already NOC. (Edited!)IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections experience suggests it puts off more than it attracts. Campaigning should only restart in the autumn and then focused on the London and local elections next May unless circumstances make a general election more likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:RoyalBlue said:One of my lefty friends on Facebook is interested in going to an event called 'Unseat Iain Duncan Smith'. It looks like a fairly well-attended canvassing session.
It's rather disturbing how Labour seem to want to fight a continuous election. It's almost as if the far left doesn't recognise any democratically elected representatives other than its own.
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.
I think Bromley, Bexley and Barnet are safe. I don't know enough about local politics in the other boroughs, but I think the Tories have a good chance in Westminster, Richmond, Wandsworth and Hillingdon.0 -
"In some possible branches of the future leaving will be an error"foxinsoxuk said:FWIW, another rat leaves the sinking HMS Brexit.
What a spineless argument. Cummings, like Gove, overestimates himself to an alarming degree.0 -
The absence of automatic pay rises with inflation leads to churn, ie people spending more time looking for new jobs with better pay. Thats what I have done. Having people move around a lot is incredibly disruptive and harms institutional memory.Benpointer said:
I will, next time I see himBig_G_NorthWales said:
I agree with you but I think you need to ask Corbyn why he rejected such a progressive measure along with the dementia tax.Benpointer said:
Where's the logic in retaining the pensions triple lock, which necessarily ensures pension spending rises at inflation or better, whilst capping public sector workers pay?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just cabinet minister, 40 conservative MP's have demanded the end of the freeze and they have the power.Drutt said:Benpointer said:
Have you got any sources for the £40bn and 200,000 jobs BigG? I'd be interested in understanding more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The public sector pay cap is receiving a lot of attention and not before time. I believe that this will finally 'out' Corbyn's incompetence on finance. Apparently to scrap the cap will cost 40 billion for this Parliament and this was not included in labour's manifesto.
Apparently the pay freeze has financed 200,000 public sector jobs
At last we should get the debate the GE missed
Of course taxes will have to rise - services have to be paid for.
But I think Gove and Boris are raising it to put Hammond in a difficult spot. Useful to have Phil the REMAINer tell everyone 'sorry, no magic money tree at No 11'. Boosts LEAVE's cause, and their own in two years' time.
I endorse their view and Theresa will test my membership if she does not agree a sensible deal for, in particular, the emergency services. However it needs to be addressed bottom up and nil at the higher salary levels
My point was if pensioners need protecting why don't public servants? The Labour manifesto wanted to protect both, which has a degree of constistency.
Incidently Labour's manifesto costed the removal of the pay cap at £4bn over 4 years.
I'd still like to see your source... I believe public sector total pay is circa £170bn pa. Inflation would have to run at 3.25% for the 5 years of this parliament to cause an incremental cost of £40bn (and that would not be a 'real' incremental cost of course.) If inflation does that, the 1% pay cap would be untenable anyway. Plus tax revenues would be increasing by 3.25%.
Regarding the 200,000 extra employes, according to the ONS number of public sector workers in March 2014 = 5.409 million; in March 2017 5.424 million. Net increase 13,000.0 -
Bexley is quite safe, IMHO. I think Barnet will retain a very narrow Conservative lead (currently 32-30). The Conservatives have long outpolled their Parliamentary results at local level in Wandsworth.IanB2 said:
Of those, Kensington must be very dicey for obvious reasons; I would expect Barnet to go Labour, Sutton to stay LD, Bexley and Hillingdon the Tories will at least lose control. Wandsworth looks lost given the GE results. Havering, Bromley and Westminster will probably hang on but with smaller majorities than now. Richmond will go LD and in Kingston Tories will lose to both opposition parties.Sean_F said:
The Tories would hold Barnet, Havering, K & C, Bromley, Bexley, on 2017's numbers. Hillingdon, and Sutton would be very tight.IanB2 said:
I would suggest that, unless something unexpected changes quite dramatically, you are facing oncoming doom as far as the London 2018 elections are concerned. Apart from Westminster and Havering, and possibly Bromley, it is hard to see where else the Tories can resist the perfect storm?HYUFD said:
Actually preparing a more sensible strategy, ie defend the local marginal seats we hold and add 1 or 2 lost in 2017. That reflects the current polls and if all the seats are won would give a small Tory majority, there is no point trying for a landslide again as it is a waste of resources. However there is also no point campaigning over the summer after county and general elections ore likelyIanB2 said:
The Tories having no majority and preparing for a defensive campaign tells us all we need to know.HYUFD said:
People are fed up of elections and referendums and just want a summer, this will backfire on the Corbynistas. In any case the Tories have volunteers it was just they were too ambitious last time and sent mainly to target Labour seats, next time they will also be sent to Tory marginals. I speak from experience as an Epping Forest Tory we were sent to Ilford North and Enfield North and Thurrock, next time it will be Chingford, Thurrock and Enfield Southgatefoxinsoxuk said:
The Tories have a party membership that is low, and similtaneously aging. They increasingly struggle to pound pavements. They are increasingly dependent on phone banks and paid for internet Ads. Labour activists do it for free, more personally and more effectively.RoyalBlue said:.
If business goes cold on funding the Tories they will be very short of effective campaign means next time.
I expect K & C is now vulnerable, but Wandsworth and Westminster will be held in local election conditions.0
