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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well if this Brexit polling turns out to be a harbinger of fut
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well if this Brexit polling turns out to be a harbinger of future polling then the 4/1 might be value
Iff this @Survation poll with a 9% lead for Remain turns out not to be an outlier but the start of a trend, what will this mean for Brexit? pic.twitter.com/dMxkLBfhwW
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There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.
This sounds like the sort of a bet a handsome young morris dancer mentioned only the other day
Forget that its the EU issue and I have a view. If we have a referendum on anything and reverse before implementing the decision it is bad.
I've written a thread to be published in the next few days about George Osborne, and it includes a quote from Alan Brooke, I hope this doesn't trigger you.
Must dash, this weather is wonderful.
how do we rejoin, certainly not on our current terms and we're forever damaged goods
oh wait we wont get a vote will we ?
We see his disciples arousal when there is bad news for the country, maybe they are following the leader
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2017/07/01/01002-20170701LIVWWW00037-en-direct-le-fil-politique-du-week-end-des-1er-et-2-juillet-2017.php
Le chef de file de la France insoumise expose sa stratégie dans une interview au Journal du Dimanche. "L'opposition sera globale et frontale. Mais surtout nous serons une opposition qui argumente et propose afin de convaincre", promet-il au sujet de la réforme du Code du travail qui sera menée par ordonnances. Estimant qu'il n'y a rien à "négocier", il prévient : "Nous ne lâcherons rien. Nous informerons, nous mobiliserons. S'il le faut, nous appellerons nous-mêmes à des mobilisations populaires avec la jeunesse et dans les quartiers."
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/now-britain-not-france-risks-being-sick-man-of-europe-1497461230
When a grand edifice is destined to tumble, it's better to be outside it than within.
Mr. Meeks, indeed.
However, that also creates a potential problem. if polls shift to, say, 58:42, the EU might start trying to give us the worst possible deal to force a second referendum. If it doesn't happen *or* we vote to leave again, that could then see us leave without any deal.
That was always the problem with the Lib Dem position of a second referendum where we either accept the deal or stay in. It created a strong incentive for the EU to try and give us the worst terms possible to influence the electorate, rather than to try and create a good, long-term relationship.
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
They're entitled to their opinion. But the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Most big business, media etc are pro EU type organisations. I don't think citing them being critical of our decision is evidence of the whole world laughing at us. I think the average man in the street is disturbed by stories of foreign governments ignoring referendums that they dont agree with though.
Brexit will be a drag on our economy other things being equal - but I do think better economic policy-making has the potential to more than make up for it. I doubt we can get that from TM though.
I doubt things are very different throughout the rest of Europe (unless you count the Russians, who think Brexit is great.)
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/majority-of-french-voters-want-an-eu-referendum-citi.html
However, consider the alternatives. The eurozone has a critical mass on QMV. Banking union has, I believe, already occurred, and monetary union happened already. There is now talk, denied pre-referendum, of an EU Army. The other natural integration step is fiscal union.
You might argue that the UK has significant opt-outs, would retain those, and would not join the single currency or be compelled to do so. Let us assume that is correct. We surrendered a swathe of vetoes when Brown reneged upon his manifesto commitment for a referendum and signed Lisbon (ironically, bringing into effect the very mechanism that allowed us to leave). In every area of QMV we are unable to determine our own destiny, and a great number, the overwhelming majority, of EU countries have the single currency's interests at heart. They can, and will, act in that interest and we cannot prevent that in any area of QMV.
Or consider the EU Army. Would we join it? Doubtful. But if the EU determines EU funds should be provided to sustain and supply the new armed force (which would seem to needlessly duplicate NATO...), could we possibly prevent this, and could we prevent billions of pounds being used for this purpose?
Without any new treaties, or any signing away of more power, we could, and would, find ourselves ever more at the whim of the EU.
And this is assuming everything trundles along. It doesn't assume the migrant crisis causes the resurgence in nationalism (we'd have a far right Austrian president if there hadn't been Tower Hamlets turnout levels for his opponent in the original election) that divides things. It doesn't assume the EU collapses in the near future (I think the EU will crumble but that it will take a while).
I'm not delighted by where we find ourselves. But the alternatives are, to my mind, worse. By leaving, we at least regain democratic accountability and become masters of our own destiny. Ceding authority to the unaccountable in an artificial federation that has no unifying culture or identity but has been concocted by ideologically driven bureaucrats is no way for an advanced nation to conduct its affairs.
Sorry, bit rambly.
No-one
For instance - they may decide not to open a new office in London, but instead expand in Dublin. But even if that happens - it's hard to notice that, and harder still to notice it before it has happened.
If we saw some kind of mass exodus of jobs before Brexit I could believe that would be noticed- but that doesn't seem very likely to me. It would involve businesses taking an enormous gamble that negotiations will turn out badly...
I wonder if the E.U vote was a release valve for people to express their (understandable) frustrations on the issue, and now some pressure has been released will be deflated as an issue?
If a country, not currently an EU member, has a referendum on whether to join and votes YES, I wouldn't laugh at them despite it probably being a bad idea in my opinion. If their government, who were against joining, then held another referendum on the matter before they joined, I would think they were a laughing stock
Mr. Eagles, those charming sentiments didn't exactly help stave off division or resentment when Cameron came out with them, and I don't think they'll do well now either.
What were their motivations?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/734222/Brexit-Scotland-not-vote-unanimously-remain-European-Union-Nicola-Sturgeon
"The voter turnout was 82.6%, and the result was 55.9% against and 42.0% in favor.[1] A majority of voters in Stockholm county voted in favor of adopting the euro (54.7% "yes", 43.2% "no"). "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_euro_referendum,_2003
Sheemsh it wash da Shwedish Shkegnessh wot won it
Instead of taking the 3 points and keeping the scoreboard ticking over, we've kicked for touch. Time will tell whether our lineout is good enough, whether it's worth losing 3 safe points for 7 risky ones. But too early to know for sure yet.
I struggle to think of anyone. Blair and Mandelson lack trust, Ken Clarke splits his own party, the LDs are in limbo and Sturgeon turns stomachs.
Of course, we don't know how many vessels similar to the Mayflower foundered, never mind how many other similar hare-brained schemes met with disaster, but you can't dispute the Mayflower venture was successful - in the end.
Just decide on a polling sample of 1000 people using a single polling company and no context.
I'm a longtime poster on this site, but now that I am actively involved in politics I thought best to start a new account to avoid anything from years ago being taken out of context. I'm sure keen observers would be able to work out who I am, but I'd respectfully request you keep it to yourselves if you do.
I'm a member of the North East Party (NEP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Party
We recently won 3 seats on Durham County Council and control Peterlee Town Council.
I'm hoping to get us a foothold in Teesside (or should I be saying 'the Tees Valley' now?).
I fundamentally disagree with your party's raison d'etre, which is utterly wrong-headed, short-sighted and fails to learn the recent and obvious lessons of Scottish devolution.
The DUP deal shows that voting in the same party year in year out benefits no-one. The squeaky wheel gets the oil, whether it's Scottish nationalism, Welsh nationalism or the DUP.