Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
But that's the "how would you vote in a 3rd referendum" scenario and we're not having a 3rd referendum, at least not for 15-20 years. I'm a Labour voter and Remainer. I would want to wave a magic wand and keep the UK in the European Union but we had the vote, Leave won so we have to leave. In that I fully support the Labour manifesto position of trying make the best of a bad job.
'I am yet to be convinced about his intellectual thoroughness. You would not think of him as a Marxixt academic. How many articles has he written even in his backbench days.
I think people do see him as sincere whereas they see most politicians as a bunch of rats.'
His policies would put our country back decades. Interesting that business is sounding alarm over both Brexit and the politics in the UK. They are well aware how destructive Corbyn would be. The idiotic idea to pay £10 per hour to 16 and 17 year olds shows how inept her is. In the US there is a move to increase the minimum wage and McDonalds have already announced that they will automate their business to save costs
The minute there is a sign that Corbyn may take office business will take steps to defend themselves and suddenly Corbyn will find his forest of money trees have disappeared to Ireland or France, both in the EU, or even the US who are looking at 15% corporation tax
Between Brexit and a Corbyn government, I can see that RCS1000's forecast of net outward migration is very possible. I think we last had that in the Eighties. There would probably be net inward Non EU migration because of family reunification, arranged marriages and asylum seekers, but significant net outflow of UK and EU citizens. It is quite likely that I would join the #Brexodus myself.
'I am yet to be convinced about his intellectual thoroughness. You would not think of him as a Marxixt academic. How many articles has he written even in his backbench days.
I think people do see him as sincere whereas they see most politicians as a bunch of rats.'
His policies would put our country back decades. Interesting that business is sounding alarm over both Brexit and the politics in the UK. They are well aware how destructive Corbyn would be. The idiotic idea to pay £10 per hour to 16 and 17 year olds shows how inept her is. In the US there is a move to increase the minimum wage and McDonalds have already announced that they will automate their business to save costs
The minute there is a sign that Corbyn may take office business will take steps to defend themselves and suddenly Corbyn will find his forest of money trees have disappeared to Ireland or France, both in the EU, or even the US who are looking at 15% corporation tax
Between Brexit and a Corbyn government, I can see that RCS1000's forecast of net outward migration is very possible. I think we last had that in the Eighties. There would probably be net inward Non EU migration because of family reunification, arranged marriages and asylum seekers, but significant net outflow of UK and EU citizens. It is quite likely that I would join the #Brexodus myself.
Leaving the UK especially for Australia or NZ is a very big decision. My eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and enjoyed the life style until the earthquakes devastated Christchurch and he was traumatised when he joined the rescuers and saw sights no one should witness. My wife and I went to see him from time to time but it is a very long way away.
As things turned out he met a Canadian of the same age (50) and single and they married in Canada in 2015 and now live happily in Vancouver. If I was emigrating Canada would be my first choice
Lol! There wasn't as much litter as there usually is.
Probably because it was an unusually dry Glasto. The rate of abandonment of tents etc is much higher whenaverymuddy festival. Generally the workers just move on to the next festi al to set up. It is quite a fun way to spend a summer, and there is a festval nearly every weekend until Bestival in early September.
Lol! There wasn't as much litter as there usually is.
Probably because it was an unusually dry Glasto. The rate of abandonment of tents etc is much higher whenaverymuddy festival. Generally the workers just move on to the next festi al to set up. It is quite a fun way to spend a summer, and there is a festval nearly every weekend until Bestival in early September.
So the story about people not being needed and not given any work is untrue?
It's an interesting mentality to just leave tents behind. I appreciate that you can probably get one for not very much money (and the attendees generally aren't poor), but I couldn't do that myself.
But the point was to show Labour supported Remain. Necessary after Corbyn and McDonnell's ambivalence. It was also a marker for Chuka who clearly has ambitions if Corbyn fails. But I don't think even Chuka expected him to fail so soon and so spectacularly.
'I am yet to be convinced about his intellectual thoroughness. You would not think of him as a Marxixt academic. How many articles has he written even in his backbench days.
I think people do see him as sincere whereas they see most politicians as a bunch of rats.'
His policies would put our country back decades. Interesting that business is sounding alarm over both Brexit and the politics in the UK. They are well aware how destructive Corbyn would be. The idiotic idea to pay £10 per hour to 16 and 17 year olds shows how inept her is. In the US there is a move to increase the minimum wage and McDonalds have already announced that they will automate their business to save costs
The minute there is a sign that Corbyn may take office business will take steps to defend themselves and suddenly Corbyn will find his forest of money trees have disappeared to Ireland or France, both in the EU, or even the US who are looking at 15% corporation tax
Between Brexit and a Corbyn government, I can see that RCS1000's forecast of net outward migration is very possible. I think we last had that in the Eighties. There would probably be net inward Non EU migration because of family reunification, arranged marriages and asylum seekers, but significant net outflow of UK and EU citizens. It is quite likely that I would join the #Brexodus myself.
Leaving the UK especially for Australia or NZ is a very big decision. My eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and enjoyed the life style until the earthquakes devastated Christchurch and he was traumatised when he joined the rescuers and saw sights no one should witness. My wife and I went to see him from time to time but it is a very long way away.
As things turned out he met a Canadian of the same age (50) and single and they married in Canada in 2015 and now live happily in Vancouver. If I was emigrating Canada would be my first choice
Unless you have a skill that means you can pull in a decent income and overcome visa rules, it is going to be very difficult option.
I guess people would move for personal and economic reasons.
Has anyone been to Doha on Qatar ? What is the lounge like ? I presume plush like Dubai.
Yes, lots of posh shops for people wanting to save tax and pay silly prices for brands, decent recharging facilities, OK choice of restaurants and seating areas. Nothing amazing though.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
I have worked in both Australia and NZ, but over 20 years ago it wasmuch more remote. I sent my mother an air letter each week and spoke by phone once in a year. Now I banter with friends and family on FB on 5 continents most weeks. It is a lot easier to stay in touch in the modern world.
That said, I am a bit too old to settle permanently, unless in a remote district. My skills are in demand for locums and short contracts covering maternity etc though. Professional registration is easier in Australasia than most of Canada, or in the Gulf or Singapore. I would prefer to work intermittently though, so as to travel and also to support the African mission that I have connections to.
I may well do this whatever happens with Brexit and the NHS. Health and Fox jr are more likely to be the deciding factor than anything.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
I wouldn't read too much into either the polls or the events in the Commons. I doubt that many people noticed the Chuka Umunna stuff.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to have been cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum. Lord knows what might happen then!
That is quite possible. The question would be Deal vs WTO Brexit, but thede would be a lot wanting Remain as a third option. I think it very likely that a government would funk the decision and go for a referendum.
Exactly. However, it is quite possible the wolf in May [ or, Corbyn, as some here seem to think ] will come out. I always thought she was a Hard Brexiter,
That is when the mother and father of rebellions will occur. After all, there is nothing more democratic than asking the people again.
I have worked in both Australia and NZ, but over 20 years ago it wasmuch more remote. I sent my mother an air letter each week and spoke by phone once in a year. Now I banter with friends and family on FB on 5 continents most weeks. It is a lot easier to stay in touch in the modern world.
That said, I am a bit too old to settle permanently, unless in a remote district. My skills are in demand for locums and short contracts covering maternity etc though. Professional registration is easier in Australasia than most of Canada, or in the Gulf or Singapore. I would prefer to work intermittently though, so as to travel and also to support the African mission that I have connections to.
I may well do this whatever happens with Brexit and the NHS. Health and Fox jr are more likely to be the deciding factor than anything.
I am fully aware that these are not easy decisions and the older you get the harder it is, especially if children and grandchildren are involved
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to have been cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum. Lord knows what might happen then!
That is quite possible. The question would be Deal vs WTO Brexit, but thede would be a lot wanting Remain as a third option. I think it very likely that a government would funk the decision and go for a referendum.
Exactly. However, it is quite possible the wolf in May [ or, Corbyn, as some here seem to think ] will come out. I always thought she was a Hard Brexiter,
That is when the mother and father of rebellions will occur. After all, there is nothing more democratic than asking the people again.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to have been cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum. Lord knows what might happen then!
That is quite possible. The question would be Deal vs WTO Brexit, but thede would be a lot wanting Remain as a third option. I think it very likely that a government would funk the decision and go for a referendum.
Exactly. However, it is quite possible the wolf in May [ or, Corbyn, as some here seem to think ] will come out. I always thought she was a Hard Brexiter,
That is when the mother and father of rebellions will occur. After all, there is nothing more democratic than asking the people again.
What if they give you the same answer?
Revoke Brexit first and then ask them if they want to go through it all over again.
Lol! There wasn't as much litter as there usually is.
Probably because it was an unusually dry Glasto. The rate of abandonment of tents etc is much higher whenaverymuddy festival. Generally the workers just move on to the next festi al to set up. It is quite a fun way to spend a summer, and there is a festval nearly every weekend until Bestival in early September.
So the story about people not being needed and not given any work is untrue?
It's an interesting mentality to just leave tents behind. I appreciate that you can probably get one for not very much money (and the attendees generally aren't poor), but I couldn't do that myself.
It is very easy to get free camping equipment at festivals, and wellies etc. I was at a very muddy Leeds Festival in 2013 and probably 50% of tents, sleeping bags and iceboxes etc abandoned. Much of it in very good nick, and some tents costing hundreds. If I wasn't carrying my own stuff, I would would have done well, but an hour round trip in the mud to come back for them didn't appeal.
Glasto is famously sticky mud and a big site so even more reason to travel light on the way back. Mind you in 87 when I went there were more than 50 cars abandoned. At that time you just parked and put up your tent next to it.
I have worked in both Australia and NZ, but over 20 years ago it wasmuch more remote. I sent my mother an air letter each week and spoke by phone once in a year. Now I banter with friends and family on FB on 5 continents most weeks. It is a lot easier to stay in touch in the modern world.
That said, I am a bit too old to settle permanently, unless in a remote district. My skills are in demand for locums and short contracts covering maternity etc though. Professional registration is easier in Australasia than most of Canada, or in the Gulf or Singapore. I would prefer to work intermittently though, so as to travel and also to support the African mission that I have connections to.
I may well do this whatever happens with Brexit and the NHS. Health and Fox jr are more likely to be the deciding factor than anything.
I am fully aware that these are not easy decisions and the older you get the harder it is, especially if children and grandchildren are involved
Just to echo that keeping in touch from NZ is very easy. Using tech like voice over iP ...... you even have a UK phone number that rings here. Friends and family can call me for the price of a UK national call.
I too work in the health sector and we are starting to see healthcare professionals make the move from the UK. I expect the rate of professional people leaving the UK will significantly increase when people finally see the disaster that is BREXIT for what it is!
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
I have worked in both Australia and NZ, but over 20 years ago it wasmuch more remote. I sent my mother an air letter each week and spoke by phone once in a year. Now I banter with friends and family on FB on 5 continents most weeks. It is a lot easier to stay in touch in the modern world.
That said, I am a bit too old to settle permanently, unless in a remote district. My skills are in demand for locums and short contracts covering maternity etc though. Professional registration is easier in Australasia than most of Canada, or in the Gulf or Singapore. I would prefer to work intermittently though, so as to travel and also to support the African mission that I have connections to.
I may well do this whatever happens with Brexit and the NHS. Health and Fox jr are more likely to be the deciding factor than anything.
I am fully aware that these are not easy decisions and the older you get the harder it is, especially if children and grandchildren are involved
Just to echo that keeping in touch from NZ is very easy. Using tech like voice over iP ...... you even have a UK phone number that rings here. Friends and family can call me for the price of a UK national call.
I too work in the health sector and we are starting to see healthcare professionals make the move from the UK. I expect the rate of professional people leaving the UK will significantly increase when people finally see the disaster that is BREXIT for what it is!
I really enjoyed my year in NZ, and I do have family there (including a Maori cousin in law), but I think I am too old for a permanent residence visa unless in Invercargill or similar.
After a year though, I felt that I had pretty much done the place. I was not unhappy to come back to England. I like the layers of history and cultural variety that we have in Europe. Being able to go for a weekend in Stockholm, London, Edinburgh or Barcelona is a great pleasure.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
Yes, I agree on both points. G.
Quite how a fringe, national political ideological grouping managed to infect and pervade our national politics is quite beyond me?
Brexit has already impacted on me personally massively. An overnight 20% hit in the exchange rate followed by legal advice to my wife telling her under no uncertain terms that she needed to return to the UK.
And for what...so we break free from a free trade agreement that massively benefits our economy and propel ourselves full force into an ongoing, never ending political, economic and soon social crisis.
I have not heard one little shred of anything that gives me any confidence that Brexit is anything other than a complete and utter disaster from start to finish.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
Yes, I agree on both points. G.
Quite how a fringe, national political ideological grouping managed to infect and pervade our national politics is quite beyond me?
Brexit has already impacted on me personally massively. An overnight 20% hit in the exchange rate followed by legal advice to my wife telling her under no uncertain terms that she needed to return to the UK.
And for what...so we break free from a free trade agreement that massively benefits our economy and propel ourselves full force into an ongoing, never ending political, economic and soon social crisis.
I have not heard one little shred of anything that gives me any confidence that Brexit is anything other than a complete and utter disaster from start to finish.
Totally agree!
In years to come there will be many theses written on why the UK committed such an act of self-harm. Whether any will get to the true answer, I doubt.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
Yes, I agree on both points. G.
Quite how a fringe, national political ideological grouping managed to infect and pervade our national politics is quite beyond me?
Brexit has already impacted on me personally massively. An overnight 20% hit in the exchange rate followed by legal advice to my wife telling her under no uncertain terms that she needed to return to the UK.
And for what...so we break free from a free trade agreement that massively benefits our economy and propel ourselves full force into an ongoing, never ending political, economic and soon social crisis.
I have not heard one little shred of anything that gives me any confidence that Brexit is anything other than a complete and utter disaster from start to finish.
What was the fringe can become orthodoxy very rapidly.
If there is one thing politicians should have learnt by now it is that the public are very happy to give the "wrong answer". I would expect referendums to be avoided if at all possible.
I have worked in both Australia and NZ, but over 20 years ago it wasmuch more remote. I sent my mother an air letter each week and spoke by phone once in a year. Now I banter with friends and family on FB on 5 continents most weeks. It is a lot easier to stay in touch in the modern world.
That said, I am a bit too old to settle permanently, unless in a remote district. My skills are in demand for locums and short contracts covering maternity etc though. Professional registration is easier in Australasia than most of Canada, or in the Gulf or Singapore. I would prefer to work intermittently though, so as to travel and also to support the African mission that I have connections to.
I may well do this whatever happens with Brexit and the NHS. Health and Fox jr are more likely to be the deciding factor than anything.
I am fully aware that these are not easy decisions and the older you get the harder it is, especially if children and grandchildren are involved
Just to echo that keeping in touch from NZ is very easy. Using tech like voice over iP ...... you even have a UK phone number that rings here. Friends and family can call me for the price of a UK national call.
I too work in the health sector and we are starting to see healthcare professionals make the move from the UK. I expect the rate of professional people leaving the UK will significantly increase when people finally see the disaster that is BREXIT for what it is!
I really enjoyed my year in NZ, and I do have family there (including a Maori cousin in law), but I think I am too old for a permanent residence visa unless in Invercargill or similar.
After a year though, I felt that I had pretty much done the place. I was not unhappy to come back to England. I like the layers of history and cultural variety that we have in Europe. Being able to go for a weekend in Stockholm, London, Edinburgh or Barcelona is a great pleasure.
seanT...where is he these days? Coming to think off it what has happened to Plato too?
Anyway, seanT once wrote he defied any expat that didn't miss home. I fully concur. I could have quite happily spent longer living in Italy....the never ending summers are wonderful....
But...Edinburgh is my favourite place on the planet, closely followed by New York...
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus and not much debt.
In the twenty years since Britain has transformed into the country you describe but it also consumes far more imported tat and takes far more foreign holidays.
So we've exchanged affordable housing for cheaper electrical goods, clothes and holidays plus extra debt. Lots of extra debt.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
This is a very well articulated example of what many are experiencing. And I suspect more and more are answering your last sentence with a 'why not'.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
Yes, I agree on both points. G.
Quite how a fringe, national political ideological grouping managed to infect and pervade our national politics is quite beyond me?
Brexit has already impacted on me personally massively. An overnight 20% hit in the exchange rate followed by legal advice to my wife telling her under no uncertain terms that she needed to return to the UK.
And for what...so we break free from a free trade agreement that massively benefits our economy and propel ourselves full force into an ongoing, never ending political, economic and soon social crisis.
I have not heard one little shred of anything that gives me any confidence that Brexit is anything other than a complete and utter disaster from start to finish.
You need to look on the bright side and appreciate the benefits it has brought people like me.
Not only am I many, many thousands of pounds richer because of the rising stock market but I have so much more work because of increased exports where I work.
Actually that second point benefits the owners more than me but I'm hoping for a much better pay rise this year.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus and not much debt.
In the twenty years since Britain has transformed into the country you describe but it also consumes far more imported tat and takes far more foreign holidays.
So we've exchanged affordable housing for cheaper electrical goods, clothes and holidays plus extra debt. Lots of extra debt.
Yeah but wouldn't that all that stuff have happened anyway due to technological advances? Cheap holidays are the result of deregulation of the airline industry and the internet.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
This is a very well articulated example of what many are experiencing. And I suspect more and more are answering your last sentence with a 'why not'.
Hisorically, house prices rarely go down in absolute terms. Generally affordability returns returns after a period of inflation (though this and the consequent high interest rates) do tend to make for a pretty painful couple of years.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus and not much debt.
In the twenty years since Britain has transformed into the country you describe but it also consumes far more imported tat and takes far more foreign holidays.
So we've exchanged affordable housing for cheaper electrical goods, clothes and holidays plus extra debt. Lots of extra debt.
Yeah but wouldn't that all that stuff have happened anyway due to technological advances? Cheap holidays are the result of deregulation of the airline industry and the internet.
Deregulation boosts consumers at the expense of producers.
I have worked in both Australia and NZ, but over 20 years ago it wasmuch more remote. I sent my mother an air letter each week and spoke by phone once in a year. Now I banter with friends and family on FB on 5 continents most weeks. It is a lot easier to stay in touch in the modern world.
That said, I am a bit too old to settle permanently, unless in a remote district. My skills are in demand for locums and short contracts covering maternity etc though. Professional registration is easier in Australasia than most of Canada, or in the Gulf or Singapore. I would prefer to work intermittently though, so as to travel and also to support the African mission that I have connections to.
I may well do this whatever happens with Brexit and the NHS. Health and Fox jr are more likely to be the deciding factor than anything.
I am fully aware that these are not easy decisions and the older you get the harder it is, especially if children and grandchildren are involved
Just to echo that keeping in touch from NZ is very easy. Using tech like voice over iP ...... you even have a UK phone number that rings here. Friends and family can call me for the price of a UK national call.
I too work in the health sector and we are starting to see healthcare professionals make the move from the UK. I expect the rate of professional people leaving the UK will significantly increase when people finally see the disaster that is BREXIT for what it is!
I really enjoyed my year in NZ, and I do have family there (including a Maori cousin in law), but I think I am too old for a permanent residence visa unless in Invercargill or similar.
After a year though, I felt that I had pretty much done the place. I was not unhappy to come back to England. I like the layers of history and cultural variety that we have in Europe. Being able to go for a weekend in Stockholm, London, Edinburgh or Barcelona is a great pleasure.
seanT...where is he these days? Coming to think off it what has happened to Plato too?
Anyway, seanT once wrote he defied any expat that didn't miss home. I fully concur. I could have quite happily spent longer living in Italy....the never ending summers are wonderful....
But...Edinburgh is my favourite place on the planet, closely followed by New York...
SeanT is probably getting value from his Corbynista girlfriend.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
Yes, I agree on both points. G.
Quite how a fringe, national political ideological grouping managed to infect and pervade our national politics is quite beyond me?
Brexit has already impacted on me personally massively. An overnight 20% hit in the exchange rate followed by legal advice to my wife telling her under no uncertain terms that she needed to return to the UK.
And for what...so we break free from a free trade agreement that massively benefits our economy and propel ourselves full force into an ongoing, never ending political, economic and soon social crisis.
I have not heard one little shred of anything that gives me any confidence that Brexit is anything other than a complete and utter disaster from start to finish.
You need to look on the bright side and appreciate the benefits it has brought people like me.
Not only am I many, many thousands of pounds richer because of the rising stock market but I have so much more work because of increased exports where I work.
Actually that second point benefits the owners more than me but I'm hoping for a much better pay rise this year.
I cashed in a substantial sum to buy a house at just over 7,000 on trackers about 18 mths ago...so the stock marker has performed just about OK in the interim...but factor in the exchange rate fall, and it has performed really quite badly since Brexit.....
Looking at the part of the Telegraph article I can see without paying it says: "A senior Downing Street figure briefed industry and City bosses... ...the briefing took place at a point after the general election was held last month and the figure has since left in the recent overhaul of Downing Street."
So that's Nick Timothy presumably? Suspect it should just be filed under 'fake news' given the current Westminster situation. I can't beleive even someone with Theresa May's emotional intelligence deficit would think that having a hissy fit would be very sensible in the current situation.
On the polls, I wonder if the reappearance of the Labour splits meme affected Survation, which sampled up to yesterday, but not Opinium, which sampled Mon/Tue. But the position is basically stable at the moment, advantage Labour but plenty to play for either way.
Nick - If we are all being honest no one can have a clue as to what will happen to the UK over the next five years. However, I am concerned at the business statement today saying Brexit and political instability could be devastating for the economy
Yes, I agree on both points. G.
Quite how a fringe, national political ideological grouping managed to infect and pervade our national politics is quite beyond me?
Brexit has already impacted on me personally massively. An overnight 20% hit in the exchange rate followed by legal advice to my wife telling her under no uncertain terms that she needed to return to the UK.
And for what...so we break free from a free trade agreement that massively benefits our economy and propel ourselves full force into an ongoing, never ending political, economic and soon social crisis.
I have not heard one little shred of anything that gives me any confidence that Brexit is anything other than a complete and utter disaster from start to finish.
You need to look on the bright side and appreciate the benefits it has brought people like me.
Not only am I many, many thousands of pounds richer because of the rising stock market but I have so much more work because of increased exports where I work.
Actually that second point benefits the owners more than me but I'm hoping for a much better pay rise this year.
I cashed in a substantial sum to buy a house at just over 7,000 on trackers about 18 mths ago...so the stock marker has performed just about OK in the interim...but factor in the exchange rate fall, and it has performed really quite badly since Brexit.....
I've not suffered from the exchange rate - food to fill my belly, fuel to fill my car and wine/beer to fill my spirit have not changed in cost.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus and not much debt.
In the twenty years since Britain has transformed into the country you describe but it also consumes far more imported tat and takes far more foreign holidays.
So we've exchanged affordable housing for cheaper electrical goods, clothes and holidays plus extra debt. Lots of extra debt.
The UK Balance of Payments Current Account was actually in deficit in 1997 - albeit not massively so.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.
The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus and not much debt.
In the twenty years since Britain has transformed into the country you describe but it also consumes far more imported tat and takes far more foreign holidays.
So we've exchanged affordable housing for cheaper electrical goods, clothes and holidays plus extra debt. Lots of extra debt.
The UK Balance of Payments Current Account was actually in deficit in 1997 - albeit not massively so.
The UK current account was in deficit by under £2bn in 1997.
In 2014, 2015 an d2016 the cumulative current account deficit was £250bn:
I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk: 1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously. 2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.
The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.
BTL has taken off because other investments have such poor returns. If interest rates were higher, and pensions not raided by the government, then the illiquid nature of BTL and the hassle factor would finish it off.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/06/29/lance-armstrongs-drug-choice-epo-doesnt-work-scientists-claim/
The minute there is a sign that Corbyn may take office business will take steps to defend themselves and suddenly Corbyn will find his forest of money trees have disappeared to Ireland or France, both in the EU, or even the US who are looking at 15% corporation tax
Between Brexit and a Corbyn government, I can see that RCS1000's forecast of net outward migration is very possible. I think we last had that in the Eighties. There would probably be net inward Non EU migration because of family reunification, arranged marriages and asylum seekers, but significant net outflow of UK and EU citizens. It is quite likely that I would join the #Brexodus myself.
Leaving the UK especially for Australia or NZ is a very big decision. My eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and enjoyed the life style until the earthquakes devastated Christchurch and he was traumatised when he joined the rescuers and saw sights no one should witness. My wife and I went to see him from time to time but it is a very long way away.
As things turned out he met a Canadian of the same age (50) and single and they married in Canada in 2015 and now live happily in Vancouver. If I was emigrating Canada would be my first choice
It's an interesting mentality to just leave tents behind. I appreciate that you can probably get one for not very much money (and the attendees generally aren't poor), but I couldn't do that myself.
LOL this man is a mess
As things turned out he met a Canadian of the same age (50) and single and they married in Canada in 2015 and now live happily in Vancouver. If I was emigrating Canada would be my first choice
Unless you have a skill that means you can pull in a decent income and overcome visa rules, it is going to be very difficult option.
I guess people would move for personal and economic reasons.
What was exploitative was the demand for exclusivity which has rightly been banned.
Film critic Barry Norman has died.
And why not.
I have worked in both Australia and NZ, but over 20 years ago it wasmuch more remote. I sent my mother an air letter each week and spoke by phone once in a year. Now I banter with friends and family on FB on 5 continents most weeks. It is a lot easier to stay in touch in the modern world.
That said, I am a bit too old to settle permanently, unless in a remote district. My skills are in demand for locums and short contracts covering maternity etc though. Professional registration is easier in Australasia than most of Canada, or in the Gulf or Singapore. I would prefer to work intermittently though, so as to travel and also to support the African mission that I have connections to.
I may well do this whatever happens with Brexit and the NHS. Health and Fox jr are more likely to be the deciding factor than anything.
Then you ask them again. Duh.
Glasto is famously sticky mud and a big site so even more reason to travel light on the way back. Mind you in 87 when I went there were more than 50 cars abandoned. At that time you just parked and put up your tent next to it.
I too work in the health sector and we are starting to see healthcare professionals make the move from the UK. I expect the rate of professional people leaving the UK will significantly increase when people finally see the disaster that is BREXIT for what it is!
After a year though, I felt that I had pretty much done the place. I was not unhappy to come back to England. I like the layers of history and cultural variety that we have in Europe. Being able to go for a weekend in Stockholm, London, Edinburgh or Barcelona is a great pleasure.
Brexit has already impacted on me personally massively. An overnight 20% hit in the exchange rate followed by legal advice to my wife telling her under no uncertain terms that she needed to return to the UK.
And for what...so we break free from a free trade agreement that massively benefits our economy and propel ourselves full force into an ongoing, never ending political, economic and soon social crisis.
I have not heard one little shred of anything that gives me any confidence that Brexit is anything other than a complete and utter disaster from start to finish.
A senior Downing Street figure briefed industry and City bosses to prepare for the Prime Minister walking away from negotiations in September.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/01/theresa-may-could-storm-brexit-talks-divorce-bill/
From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.
Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)
So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)
But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk:
1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously.
2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.
It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.
So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.
In years to come there will be many theses written on why the UK committed such an act of self-harm. Whether any will get to the true answer, I doubt.
Baffled and depressed
Anyway, seanT once wrote he defied any expat that didn't miss home. I fully concur. I could have quite happily spent longer living in Italy....the never ending summers are wonderful....
But...Edinburgh is my favourite place on the planet, closely followed by New York...
In the twenty years since Britain has transformed into the country you describe but it also consumes far more imported tat and takes far more foreign holidays.
So we've exchanged affordable housing for cheaper electrical goods, clothes and holidays plus extra debt. Lots of extra debt.
Labour 1997-2010 has a lot to answer for.
Not only am I many, many thousands of pounds richer because of the rising stock market but I have so much more work because of increased exports where I work.
Actually that second point benefits the owners more than me but I'm hoping for a much better pay rise this year.
Cheap holidays are the result of deregulation of the airline industry and the internet.
The motto of the rich leftist down the ages.
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/881256623712456705
NEW THREAD
Plato has been banned for about six months.
what was Plato banned for?
"A senior Downing Street figure briefed industry and City bosses... ...the briefing took place at a point after the general election was held last month and the figure has since left in the recent overhaul of Downing Street."
So that's Nick Timothy presumably? Suspect it should just be filed under 'fake news' given the current Westminster situation. I can't beleive even someone with Theresa May's emotional intelligence deficit would think that having a hissy fit would be very sensible in the current situation.
The likes of that Milo fellow.
The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.
In 2014, 2015 an d2016 the cumulative current account deficit was £250bn:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp