It does improve our negotiating position, because being able to say "I won't be able to sell this" is a powerful negotiating tactic.
But it also increases the chance of no deal. So many people being able to veto the deal increases the likelihood of no deal being able to secure a majority in the House.
My thinking is at what point do the Remainers decide to be pragmatic in the HoC and HoL?
The default, if Parliament passes nothing, is a cliff edge "chaos" to
I am not too sure. The.
I suspect no end of plans and discussions are goNow the shock of her humiliation has passed, the Tories will be thinking about how to install a pragmatist. There's no point in going with another Brexit zealot, as Corbyn has now secured that role, probably to far better effect.
I can assure you, the Labour Party inside and outside is not a Brexit party. Even Emily is not.
Its difficult to convince people after the other night that he's any less a Brexiteer than May. A pretty fundamental mistake in my opinion and an unnecessary one
If our limpalong government maintains its majority and progresses towards Brexit, Labour will be entirely happy watching on and letting the Tories carry the can for the consequences. If, however, Labour votes become critical to the outcome, the party will jump to a Remain position in a heartbeat, whatever Corbyn himself thinks.
You two lovebirds seem to be quite happy rattling along at all times assuming and hoping for the worst.
I'm quite happy to "own" Brexit or "carry the can" as you put it. When it's a success nobody will admit to having been a remoaner. Rather like Headingley in 1981, when everything turns out great more people will claim to have been in the ground cheering on Botham than the place could have physically seated.
Lol. You enjoy denial, as long as you can.
@GeoffM is stuck at phase (1) of the project cycle, @RCS1000 has reached stage (2):
The Welke project cycle
(1) wild euphoria when the new system is announced, (2) growing concern, (3) ”near total disillusionment as the systems people realize almost all the goals set down in stage 1 are unattainable (mainly because management has not set down what it wants),” (4) unmitigated disaster, (5) search for the guilty, (6) punishment of the innocent, and (7) promotion of the uninvolved. (The last three stages occur in quick order, according to Mr. Welke.)
I'm quite happy to "own" Brexit or "carry the can" as you put it. When it's a success nobody will admit to having been a remoaner. Rather like Headingley in 1981, when everything turns out great more people will claim to have been in the ground cheering on Botham than the place could have physically seated.
I think the bit way you, and a lot of my fellow Leavers, are most optimistic is not regarding the EU, but our trade relations with the rest of the world. My misconceptions about the rest of the world list:
1. There are very few genuinely free trade countries out there. South Korea, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Singapore are the obvious ones. But most countries are pretty secretly protectionist. (Countries like India wish to protect their agriculture and financial services, for example.)
2. We will be on significantly worse terms of trade on Brexit day unless Dr Fox gets his socks on. The EU has a lot of treaties with other countries regarding mutual recognition of standards and the like that we potentially drop out of in about 20 months time. And at the very least we need to replace FTAs with Canada, South Korea, Israel, the EFTA countries, Mercosur, and South Africa.
3. The currency can just "adjust", and this will mean tariffs have little or no effect. Were products exported by the UK solely made up of bit sourced in the UK, then it would be true. But exports today have multi-country supply chains, and bits of products often pass borders many times. This means you need to look at the value add in a country.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
I'm quite happy to "own" Brexit or "carry the can" as you put it. When it's a success nobody will admit to having been a remoaner. Rather like Headingley in 1981, when everything turns out great more people will claim to have been in the ground cheering on Botham than the place could have physically seated.
I think the bit way you, and a lot of my fellow Leavers, are most optimistic is not regarding the EU, but our trade relations with the rest of the world. My misconceptions about the rest of the world list:
1. There are very few genuinely free trade countries out there. South Korea, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Singapore are the obvious ones. But most countries are pretty secretly protectionist. (Countries like India wish to protect their agriculture and financial services, for example.)
2. We will be on significantly worse terms of trade on Brexit day unless Dr Fox gets his socks on. The EU has a lot of treaties with other countries regarding mutual recognition of standards and the like that we potentially drop out of in about 20 months time. And at the very least we need to replace FTAs with Canada, South Korea, Israel, the EFTA countries, Mercosur, and South Africa.
3. The currency can just "adjust", and this will mean tariffs have little or no effect. Were products exported by the UK solely made up of bit sourced in the UK, then it would be true. But exports today have multi-country supply chains, and bits of products often pass borders many times. This means you need to look at the value add in a country.
The vast number of countries, all believe in tariff-free trade, as long as they are exporters !
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Why put ourselves through all this. Simply stand up to the British public and the likes of Bill Cash, tell them as it is, not what we think they would like to hear, and end this whole sordid business. Enough is enough!!. Time to get back to normality and get on with government, not all this exit negotiating nonsense. People I speak to at work who amazed me by voting leave, "its this immigration", openly say they would not do it again and regret their vote. Some live in the Stoke area.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
I am pretty sure the loss of Theresa May's majority doesn't make our negotiating task easier. It might not make any difference to the likelihood of success. The premise behind the negotiations for us is continuity. We want continued access to markets, WTO schedules that don't change from what we have, common drug certification regimes, open skies agreements, access to nuclear fission technologies, free flow of goods across borders and on and on. The EU wants us out quickly with the minimum damage to them. The objectives are very different.
We can make a case to the EU for continuity, but no-one on our side has ever made it. We would pretty much have to do it on their terms (ECJ oversight etc) , sort out citizens' rights, money payments etc. Unless we make case and accept the constraints, continuity will be lost
It's funny how in all the discussions of Britain's economic problems (which are the route cause of debates on austerity and pay), nobody ever brings up the chronic deterioration in our trading position and the public finances due to the rundown of North Sea oil.
I suppose it's because it's a problem without an obvious slogan-friendly solution. Thatcher's greatest error was to let the pound become a petro-currency, rather than copy the Norwegians.
It's funny how in all the discussions of Britain's economic problems (which are the route cause of debates on austerity and pay), nobody ever brings up the chronic deterioration in our trading position and the public finances due to the rundown of North Sea oil.
I suppose it's because it's a problem without an obvious slogan-friendly solution. Thatcher's greatest error was to let the pound become a petro-currency, rather than copy the Norwegians.
Pretty much every Chancellor since Clarke has worked to make the North Sea unattractive to oil and gas companies too.
Here we go, Mike goes on holiday and leaves boy wonder in charge and straight the way Leadsom goes on manoeuvres....
There is no way to leave the EU that brings the country together because some of us will be saying it is a mistake for the next twenty years (if it happens at all).
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
It's funny how in all the discussions of Britain's economic problems (which are the route cause of debates on austerity and pay), nobody ever brings up the chronic deterioration in our trading position and the public finances due to the rundown of North Sea oil.
I suppose it's because it's a problem without an obvious slogan-friendly solution. Thatcher's greatest error was to let the pound become a petro-currency, rather than copy the Norwegians.
I believe William Keagan wrote a whole book on just that subject.
Yes, this is a very well written post by Alastair Meeks.
But I suppose the question is the outcome the EU is hoping for.
If they wish to 'punish' us, surely us dropping out to WTO in 2019 would be their optimal solution. If they wish to keep us in the fold, their optimal outcome is probably to convince us to reverse Brexit entirely and remain.
Both of those options are now within easy grasp - simply present a deal up to the deadline on 2019 that is unacceptable and won't make it through Parliament and force us to choose between remaining in - they could leave the door open if they so choose - or inflicting maximum punishment.
A great article from Mr Meeks - but it assumes a middle-ground deal is in the EU's interest. If it's not, the EU's task of either keeping us in, or pushing us off the cliff, just got x100 easier.
I sort of agree with you. Given we probably don't want either a car crash or to cancel Brexit entirely, it implies a middle ground although no-one is articulating a sensible policy position. The EU wants us out, ideally with the least pain to them, but would probably accept a cancellation of Brexit. I don't think they are particularly interested in punishment. In fact they are not interested in Brexit, period.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
I'm quite happy to "own" Brexit or "carry the can" as you put it. When it's a success nobody will admit to having been a remoaner. Rather like Headingley in 1981, when everything turns out great more people will claim to have been in the ground cheering on Botham than the place could have physically seated.
I think the bit way you, and a lot of my fellow Leavers, are most optimistic is not regarding the EU, but our trade relations with the rest of the world. My misconceptions about the rest of the world list:
1. There are very few genuinely free trade countries out there. South Korea, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Singapore are the obvious ones. But most countries are pretty secretly protectionist. (Countries like India wish to protect their agriculture and financial services, for example.)
2. We will be on significantly worse terms of trade on Brexit day unless Dr Fox gets his socks on. The EU has a lot of treaties with other countries regarding mutual recognition of standards and the like that we potentially drop out of in about 20 months time. And at the very least we need to replace FTAs with Canada, South Korea, Israel, the EFTA countries, Mercosur, and South Africa.
3. The currency can just "adjust", and this will mean tariffs have little or no effect. Were products exported by the UK solely made up of bit sourced in the UK, then it would be true. But exports today have multi-country supply chains, and bits of products often pass borders many times. This means you need to look at the value add in a country.
The secret to happiness is wanting what you have. You are more than capable of making the rational case for what we have, but you deceive yourself with the emotional case for what we do not have.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
I'm quite happy to "own" Brexit or "carry the can" as you put it. When it's a success nobody will admit to having been a remoaner. Rather like Headingley in 1981, when everything turns out great more people will claim to have been in the ground cheering on Botham than the place could have physically seated.
I think the bit way you, and a lot of my fellow Leavers, are most optimistic is not regarding the EU, but our trade relations with the rest of the world. My misconceptions about the rest of the world list:
1. There are very few genuinely free trade countries out there. South Korea, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Singapore are the obvious ones. But most countries are pretty secretly protectionist. (Countries like India wish to protect their agriculture and financial services, for example.)
2. We will be on significantly worse terms of trade on Brexit day unless Dr Fox gets his socks on. The EU has a lot of treaties with other countries regarding mutual recognition of standards and the like that we potentially drop out of in about 20 months time. And at the very least we need to replace FTAs with Canada, South Korea, Israel, the EFTA countries, Mercosur, and South Africa.
3. The currency can just "adjust", and this will mean tariffs have little or no effect. Were products exported by the UK solely made up of bit sourced in the UK, then it would be true. But exports today have multi-country supply chains, and bits of products often pass borders many times. This means you need to look at the value add in a country.
The secret to happiness is wanting what you have. You are more than capable of making the rational case for what we have, but you deceive yourself with the emotional case for what we do not have.
Ah. I see you've met my wife and also our babysitter.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
800k gets you 8 acres up here or 80 square metres in certain London postcodes so the utility of your 40k depends very much where you earn it
Why put ourselves through all this. Simply stand up to the British public and the likes of Bill Cash, tell them as it is, not what we think they would like to hear, and end this whole sordid business. Enough is enough!!. Time to get back to normality and get on with government, not all this exit negotiating nonsense. People I speak to at work who amazed me by voting leave, "its this immigration", openly say they would not do it again and regret their vote. Some live in the Stoke area.
They only tell you that to get rid of you because they are sick and tired of your whining.
Why put ourselves through all this. Simply stand up to the British public and the likes of Bill Cash, tell them as it is, not what we think they would like to hear, and end this whole sordid business. Enough is enough!!. Time to get back to normality and get on with government, not all this exit negotiating nonsense. People I speak to at work who amazed me by voting leave, "its this immigration", openly say they would not do it again and regret their vote. Some live in the Stoke area.
They only tell you that to get rid of you because they are sick and tired of your whining.
His adoring supporters chanted 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' and held up signs emblazoned with his name and red hearts. A number of middle aged women were seen taking selfies with the Opposition leader in the background.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
It depends how many Labour voters are bothered. A lot will be, in Inner London, and some other big cities, but Labour can afford to lose votes in those places.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Regarding a ‘deal’ on the terms of the UK’s EU exit, Theresa May has said 'I am equally clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain'. If Theresa May decides after negotiations end that ‘no deal’ is better than the deal EU has offered the UK, which of the following is closest to your view?
Would accept her judgment: 51 Would not accept her judgment: 44
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
If people think Corbyn's support will melt away with when they find out he is a LEAVER and a hard leaver at that, they are kidding themselves,
Corbynism is the third biggest religion in Britain after Christainity and Islam.
Regarding a ‘deal’ on the terms of the UK’s EU exit, Theresa May has said 'I am equally clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain'. If Theresa May decides after negotiations end that ‘no deal’ is better than the deal EU has offered the UK, which of the following is closest to your view?
Would accept her judgment: 51 Would not accept her judgment: 44
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
If people think Corbyn's support will melt away with when they find out he is a LEAVER and a hard leaver at that, they are kidding themselves,
Corbyism is the third biggest religion in Britain after Christainity and Islam.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Who says that they have changed their minds?
I'm sure we've chuckled on here in that past about 3% and 5% and 7% etc of UKIP voters occasionally saying Remain even before the referendum.
Also, I think it was RCS who observed that you can ask Have You Been Decapitated and you'll get a few Yes answers in every survey (apologies if the phrase was from someone else).
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
If people think Corbyn's support will melt away with when they find out he is a LEAVER and a hard leaver at that, they are kidding themselves,
Corbynism is the third biggest religion in Britain after Christainity and Islam.
Regarding a ‘deal’ on the terms of the UK’s EU exit, Theresa May has said 'I am equally clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain'. If Theresa May decides after negotiations end that ‘no deal’ is better than the deal EU has offered the UK, which of the following is closest to your view?
Would accept her judgment: 51 Would not accept her judgment: 44
Weren't there once polls saying that, if Cameron returned from Brussels with a renegotiation that he proclaimed a "good deal", then the overwhelming majority of the country would vote Remain?
I don't see that the poll you're quoting is much different to that.
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
Yep. Can't disagree with that. In the end young people are probably more concerned about jobs and housing than they are about Brexit, most people probably just associate Brexit with restrictions on being free to live, work travel around Europe.
The situation with jobs and housing for young people is really bad. Not just young people, people in their 30's, and even 40's. The conservative government 2010+ seem to have abandoned the idea that the state has any role in providing housing and stable jobs, which from a historical point of view is insane.
Although tories shouldn't be complacent, that is actually really bad news for labour; with May's ratings in the gutter and JC actually showing a net positive you would expect a double digit labour lead.
I wonder if the hung pariliament was accidental, with many remain tories deciding it was safe to not vote for May.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
If people think Corbyn's support will melt away with when they find out he is a LEAVER and a hard leaver at that, they are kidding themselves,
Corbynism is the third biggest religion in Britain after Christainity and Islam.
It will never be big enough to win Labour a majority. That is only possible when the leadership accepts Labour is a left of centre coalition. The current leadership has very deliberately rejected that idea.
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
I would never claim it was a whole-hearted endorsement of socialism, nor would I claim that all of Labour's gained voters are "in the bag" for Labour at future elections -- lots of people on the doorsteps who were switching or considering switching to Labour still had caveats and doubts about them.
However, I still maintain Brexit is neither here nor there in terms of holding onto those voters.
What is interesting about the Survation poll on Brexit is that there appears to be a huge divergence of opinion between men and women - a significant leave lead with men and a very large remain lead with women.
Is is that a new trend or just a statistical quirk?
Although tories shouldn't be complacent, that is actually really bad news for labour; with May's ratings in the gutter and JC actually showing a net positive you would expect a double digit labour lead.
I wonder if the hung pariliament was accidental, with many remain tories deciding it was safe to not vote for May.
I am sure the message the Tories were on for a landslide didn't help, but then the stuff like dementia tax just doubled down on "ok love should we go to the polls today and vote for May"..."no need, they are going to win anyway, and I am not going to support her. Hopefully they only get a small majority and they won't be doing any of that bat shit crazy stuff".
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
Sounds like you picked the wrong industry.
Possibly. But overall I am quite happy with what I earn, its significantly in excess of the national average wage, and I enjoy my job and sleep well at night.
What is interesting about the Survation poll on Brexit is that there appears to be a huge divergence of opinion between men and women - a significant leave lead with men and a very large remain lead with women.
Is is that a new trend or just a statistical quirk?
I believe there are plenty of studies out that showing that women are on average more risk-averse than men.
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
I would never claim it was a whole-hearted endorsement of socialism, nor would I claim that all of Labour's gained voters are "in the bag" for Labour at future elections -- lots of people on the doorsteps who were switching or considering switching to Labour still had caveats and doubts about them.
However, I still maintain Brexit is neither here nor there in terms of holding onto those voters.
Labour has lost its Survation lead at the same time as Survatuon has a clear Remain lead. It might be a coincidence, I guess.
If we get regular polls show 60% Remain 40% Leave, Brexit is over.
That's what the next 12 months of negativity is for.
I think it would probably have to be 65% to 35% to get a government rethink. That is unlikely, but also would have to be in circumstances where major carnage had already been wrought on the economy.
Much more likely post Brexit than before, but voters are rather fickle like that.
A fifth (20%) of 2017 CON voters tell Opinium that they currently disapprove of the way TMay is handling her job.
Is that all?
Historically that is quite poor for a Tory leader, Dave and Theresa used to have North Korean levels of approval from Tory voters, approval ratings used to be in the high 90s.
What is interesting about the Survation poll on Brexit is that there appears to be a huge divergence of opinion between men and women - a significant leave lead with men and a very large remain lead with women.
Is is that a new trend or just a statistical quirk?
I believe there are plenty of studies out that showing that women are on average more risk-averse than men.
I don't think there was any substantial gender gap in the Referendum.
A fifth (20%) of 2017 CON voters tell Opinium that they currently disapprove of the way TMay is handling her job.
Is that all?
Historically that is quite poor for a Tory leader, Dave and Theresa used to have North Korean levels of approval from Tory voters, approval ratings used to be in the high 90s.
Mr. Eagles, disregarding the highly improbable (Osborne/Cameron returning) what's your preferred course of events as far as the Conservative leadership goes?
A fifth (20%) of 2017 CON voters tell Opinium that they currently disapprove of the way TMay is handling her job.
Is that all?
Historically that is quite poor for a Tory leader, Dave and Theresa used to have North Korean levels of approval from Tory voters, approval ratings used to be in the high 90s.
What about before Dave though?
Mrs May is now polling on a par/worse than IDS with some pollsters.
Below is a list of ten things the government could potentially have as a priority during the Brexit talks. Which of the following do you think should be the government’s priority to include in the UK’s deal when negotiating with the European Union (EU)?
1. The UK should continue to cooperate with EU law enforcement bodies and share terrorist intelligence material with the EU (38%)
2. The UK should guarantee the rights of EU citizens who already live and work in Britain to continue to do so (37%)
3. The European Court of Justice should no longer have any jurisdiction in Britain (33%)
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
I would never claim it was a whole-hearted endorsement of socialism, nor would I claim that all of Labour's gained voters are "in the bag" for Labour at future elections -- lots of people on the doorsteps who were switching or considering switching to Labour still had caveats and doubts about them.
However, I still maintain Brexit is neither here nor there in terms of holding onto those voters.
Labour has lost its Survation lead at the same time as Survatuon has a clear Remain lead. It might be a coincidence, I guess.
The Labour left's hubris will not end well.
Statistically, there's not much difference between a 3% lead and a 1% deficit in a poll.
A fifth (20%) of 2017 CON voters tell Opinium that they currently disapprove of the way TMay is handling her job.
Is that all?
Historically that is quite poor for a Tory leader, Dave and Theresa used to have North Korean levels of approval from Tory voters, approval ratings used to be in the high 90s.
What about before Dave though?
Mrs May is now polling on a par/worse than IDS with some pollsters.
I meant within the Tory Party support. 20% still seems very low. On here it has to be 98%?
Mr. Eagles, disregarding the highly improbable (Osborne/Cameron returning) what's your preferred course of events as far as the Conservative leadership goes?
Theresa May is ousted at conference and replaced by Johnny Mercer.
Comments
The Welke project cycle
(1) wild euphoria when the new system is announced, (2) growing concern, (3) ”near total disillusionment as the systems people realize almost all the goals set down in stage 1 are unattainable (mainly because management has not set down what it wants),” (4) unmitigated disaster, (5) search for the guilty, (6) punishment of the innocent, and (7) promotion of the uninvolved. (The last three stages occur in quick order, according to Mr. Welke.)
1. There are very few genuinely free trade countries out there. South Korea, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Singapore are the obvious ones. But most countries are pretty secretly protectionist. (Countries like India wish to protect their agriculture and financial services, for example.)
2. We will be on significantly worse terms of trade on Brexit day unless Dr Fox gets his socks on. The EU has a lot of treaties with other countries regarding mutual recognition of standards and the like that we potentially drop out of in about 20 months time. And at the very least we need to replace FTAs with Canada, South Korea, Israel, the EFTA countries, Mercosur, and South Africa.
3. The currency can just "adjust", and this will mean tariffs have little or no effect. Were products exported by the UK solely made up of bit sourced in the UK, then it would be true. But exports today have multi-country supply chains, and bits of products often pass borders many times. This means you need to look at the value add in a country.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
But it will happen.
I have known junior doctors referred to the NHS fraud office and GMC for such actions. It simply is not worth it.
We can make a case to the EU for continuity, but no-one on our side has ever made it. We would pretty much have to do it on their terms (ECJ oversight etc) , sort out citizens' rights, money payments etc. Unless we make case and accept the constraints, continuity will be lost
Corbyn knows the score with "old Labour" voters position on the EU anyway
CON 39 (-5)
LAB 45 (+4)
LD 5 (-3)
UKIP 5 (+3)
GRN 2 (=)
SNP 3 (=)
Ch vs result
27-29 Jun
N=2,010
I suppose it's because it's a problem without an obvious slogan-friendly solution. Thatcher's greatest error was to let the pound become a petro-currency, rather than copy the Norwegians.
CON 41% (+1) LAB 40% (-4) LD 7% (+1) UKIP 2% (NC) Others 10% (+2)
EU Referendum Voting Intention ex Undecided (with change from last Survation poll 19/6*)
Leave 46% (-3)
Remain 54% (+3)
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
Corbynism sweeping the nation.
Too late. They voted to leave when it mattered...
Shouldn't they start from the proviso that leave won the referendum and ask whether people agree that we should now leave the EU?
Leave / Remain - 2017 Vote:
Con: 65 / 34
Lab: 20 / 76
LD: 21 / 80
UKIP: 94 / 6
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Final-Survation-UK-Attitudes-Tracker-280617MMDLLMTDC-1c0d1h7-chd.pdf
Which party is out of step with its voters?
Cause that's worked out well for Nicola hasn't it...
His adoring supporters chanted 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' and held up signs emblazoned with his name and red hearts. A number of middle aged women were seen taking selfies with the Opposition leader in the background.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657086/Jeremy-Corbyn-says-Labour-government-waiting.html
We're going to leave the EU. Once we have left the EU would you vote in a referendum to rejoin?
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Elsewhere, Labour voters have other concerns.
Would accept her judgment: 51
Would not accept her judgment: 44
Corbynism is the third biggest religion in Britain after Christainity and Islam.
I'm sure we've chuckled on here in that past about 3% and 5% and 7% etc of UKIP voters occasionally saying Remain even before the referendum.
Also, I think it was RCS who observed that you can ask Have You Been Decapitated and you'll get a few Yes answers in every survey (apologies if the phrase was from someone else).
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/881209592306434052
That's what the next 12 months of negativity is for.
I don't see that the poll you're quoting is much different to that.
The situation with jobs and housing for young people is really bad. Not just young people, people in their 30's, and even 40's. The conservative government 2010+ seem to have abandoned the idea that the state has any role in providing housing and stable jobs, which from a historical point of view is insane.
I wonder if the hung pariliament was accidental, with many remain tories deciding it was safe to not vote for May.
It's already tedious. It'll just make people turn off.
However, I still maintain Brexit is neither here nor there in terms of holding onto those voters.
Is is that a new trend or just a statistical quirk?
https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/881196978364862464
Mr. 1000, think it was 5 for 2022. Could be wrong.
The Labour left's hubris will not end well.
Much more likely post Brexit than before, but voters are rather fickle like that.
1. The UK should continue to cooperate with EU law enforcement bodies and share terrorist intelligence material with the EU (38%)
2. The UK should guarantee the rights of EU citizens who already live and work in Britain to continue to do so (37%)
3. The European Court of Justice should no longer have any jurisdiction in Britain (33%)
Conservative voters put 3 top on 55%
OPINIUM