A fifth (20%) of 2017 CON voters tell Opinium that they currently disapprove of the way TMay is handling her job.
Is that all?
Historically that is quite poor for a Tory leader, Dave and Theresa used to have North Korean levels of approval from Tory voters, approval ratings used to be in the high 90s.
What about before Dave though?
Mrs May is now polling on a par/worse than IDS with some pollsters.
I meant within the Tory Party support. 20% still seems very low. On here it has to be 98%?
That's what I meant too, with some pollsters Mrs May is polling with Tory voters around the levels of IDS in 2002.
Edit - Ah I get you, there's a distinction between Tory members and Tory voters.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
Yep. Can't disagree with that. In the end young people are probably more concerned about jobs and housing than they are about Brexit, most people probably just associate Brexit with restrictions on being free to live, work travel around Europe.
The situation with jobs and housing for young people is really bad. Not just young people, people in their 30's, and even 40's. The conservative government 2010+ seem to have abandoned the idea that the state has any role in providing housing and stable jobs, which from a historical point of view is insane.
Talking to my kids Brexit is seen more a symbolic thing - the old dumping on the young, yet again - than an issue to live or die by in and of itself. Of course, Brexit will have a significant impact on just about everything, so it may well move beyond symbolism.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Mr. Observer, I'm re-reading Ian Mortimer's excellent biography of Sir Roger Mortimer. Edward II's on the throne and his (and Gaveston's) struggles with the older earls is perhaps reminiscent of that generational struggle.
Mr. Observer, I'm re-reading Ian Mortimer's excellent biography of Sir Roger Mortimer. Edward II's on the throne and his (and Gaveston's) struggles with the older earls is perhaps reminiscent of that generational struggle.
Mr. Observer, I'm re-reading Ian Mortimer's excellent biography of Sir Roger Mortimer. Edward II's on the throne and his (and Gaveston's) struggles with the older earls is perhaps reminiscent of that generational struggle.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
That Labour split is interesting. I wonder if there was quite a bit of churn in midland and northern areas? Perhaps the Tories did pick up a lot of Labour/Ukip leavers but couldn't hold on to enough of their own remainers.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
All that talk of respecting the result was guff then?
Opinium? Why post polls from pollsters that got two of the last GEs wrong? At least wait and see whether any adjustments they make in the future are right.
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
Exactly. Labour have also assumed that they will definitely win the next the GE. The electorate doesn't like that kind of hubris - as seen on June 8th.
Mr. Eagles, I believe recent history indicates that your suggestion competence is a factor in becoming leader of a major party is not necessarily correct.
This is like the antithesis of the Diadochi era. That had Craterus, Eumenes, Antipater, Antiochus, Ptolemy, Cassander, Seleucus and more all vying for dominance.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
Yep. Can't disagree with that. In the end young people are probably more concerned about jobs and housing than they are about Brexit, most people probably just associate Brexit with restrictions on being free to live, work travel around Europe.
The situation with jobs and housing for young people is really bad. Not just young people, people in their 30's, and even 40's. The conservative government 2010+ seem to have abandoned the idea that the state has any role in providing housing and stable jobs, which from a historical point of view is insane.
Talking to my kids Brexit is seen more a symbolic thing - the old dumping on the young, yet again - than an issue to live or die by in and of itself. Of course, Brexit will have a significant impact on just about everything, so it may well move beyond symbolism.
What is interesting about the Survation poll on Brexit is that there appears to be a huge divergence of opinion between men and women - a significant leave lead with men and a very large remain lead with women.
Is is that a new trend or just a statistical quirk?
Just like in the Scottish Indy polls. It's the women who wot won it for the UK.
May has had about as bad a time as possible - the fall out from the GE, Grenfell, Corbyn on crest of a wave and of course the toxic deal with the DUP only a few days ago - surely Con should now be falling well behind.
Yet Survation has Con +1. Though Opinium has Lab +6 which seems far more what would be expected as the minimum Lab lead.
Best bet for Con has to be head down, get through the next 3 weeks and then it's the summer recess. Then come back in 3 months and hope everything has started to calm down a bit.
Anyway these polls at least give Con supporters some hope that all is not lost - a new leader, a positive manifesto and whatever happens with Brexit they could well have a decent chance at any point between 2019 and 2022 especially if the Corbyn bubble starts deflating.
Odds on another 2017 GE on Betfair have drifted very significantly over the last few days.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
Yep. Can't disagree with that. In the end young people are probably more concerned about jobs and housing than they are about Brexit, most people probably just associate Brexit with restrictions on being free to live, work travel around Europe.
The situation with jobs and housing for young people is really bad. Not just young people, people in their 30's, and even 40's. The conservative government 2010+ seem to have abandoned the idea that the state has any role in providing housing and stable jobs, which from a historical point of view is insane.
Talking to my kids Brexit is seen more a symbolic thing - the old dumping on the young, yet again - than an issue to live or die by in and of itself. Of course, Brexit will have a significant impact on just about everything, so it may well move beyond symbolism.
+1. That's how a lot of us see it.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Isn't it the same as other recent polls ? TBH, I am not keeping a close track.
Other than the recent Survation just posted, it's similar to the previous polls from Survation and YouGov post GE - showing leads of 5 and 3 points for Labour IIRC.
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
I would never claim it was a whole-hearted endorsement of socialism, nor would I claim that all of Labour's gained voters are "in the bag" for Labour at future elections -- lots of people on the doorsteps who were switching or considering switching to Labour still had caveats and doubts about them.
However, I still maintain Brexit is neither here nor there in terms of holding onto those voters.
His adoring supporters chanted 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' and held up signs emblazoned with his name and red hearts. A number of middle aged women were seen taking selfies with the Opposition leader in the background.
I'm quite tempted by the 4s on us still being a full member on 1/1/2000. I think (assuming negotiations are going OK) that an extension is more likely than not. The "danger" to the bet is that an extension is more likely to be 6 months than 12.
Add in the small but real risk of a major recession causing second thoughts...
4s seems very slightly generous to me. If I had some money in my Ladbrokes account, I'd bet on it. But it's not sufficiently enticing to make me actually deposit cash.
We see why in this tweet. The examples are public sector, but I think many private sector voters experience is the same. Except those pensioners of course.
Really sad. A young solicitor or chartered accountant will probably start at £35k.
The medical example is without banding (typically 30% more for overtime) but this has been markedly reduced on the new contract from August. There are 4 levels below a band 5 Staff Nurse. Both graduates now will be repaying fees as well of course.
I think many other fields have seen similar erosion of income by nominal wage freezes. No wonder savings are reaching all time lows and credit card debts new highs. Austerity is very real for many Britons and seemingly without end. This is Corbyns appeal, nothing to do with Brexit.
I've had the equivalent of 4 significant promotions in the last ten years since leaving uni. In real terms my income now is only marginally higher than it was in my first job. Started on 30k, now 41k. So im having to get promoted all the time to stand still. I'm now in a position where there are very few more opportunities for promotion because i am at a senior level.
Still dont see how corbyn would solve this problem.
I don't think Corbyn can, but that is the source of the discontent that fuels Corbynism.
Yep. Can't disagree with that. In the end young people are probably more concerned about jobs and housing than they are about Brexit, most people probably just associate Brexit with restrictions on being free to live, work travel around Europe.
The situation with jobs and housing for young people is really bad. Not just young people, people in their 30's, and even 40's. The conservative government 2010+ seem to have abandoned the idea that the state has any role in providing housing and stable jobs, which from a historical point of view is insane.
The irony being that JC and McDonell would destroy job opportunities and our youth would find it more difficult to move to Spain that would then have a better job market.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
I can only comment on the London vote. It was ALL anti-Brexit.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
EU membership is an insurance againt demagogues like McDonell.
Mr. Eagles, I believe recent history indicates that your suggestion competence is a factor in becoming leader of a major party is not necessarily correct.
This is like the antithesis of the Diadochi era. That had Craterus, Eumenes, Antipater, Antiochus, Ptolemy, Cassander, Seleucus and more all vying for dominance.
We have May and Corbyn. *sighs*
The end result was stalemate, simply because they were all so evenly matched, in terms of ability.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
EU membership is an insurance againt demagogues like McDonell.
EU membership is an insurance against Right wing Tory demagogues abolishing workers rights.
Theresa May has suffered a startling decline in popularity since last month’s general election with a new opinion poll showing 61% of voters now view her in a more negative light than they did when the electorate denied her an overall majority on 8 June.
The extraordinary transformation in the prime minister’s ratings, which were sky high in early April after she called the snap election, has been accompanied by a rise in public respect for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, according to a new Opinium survey for the Observer.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
EU membership is an insurance againt demagogues like McDonell.
I dislike him as much as I dislike the likes of Dominic Raab, Philip Davies etc.
I also don't think Brexit will affect our next GE to much of an extent.
Look at it this way - the GE we've just had was meant to be all about Brexit and May started out on that path.
It didn't work because ultimately people were more interested in other things.
People have a limited attention span and I think many now think Brexit is quite complicated and technical - and of course they think it's decided. So they now think it's just a job that needs to be dealt with but they don't care about the details.
Unless it blows up big time - eg people heard it had been "cancelled" or whatever - I don't think it's going to be uppermost in people's minds.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
All that talk of respecting the result was guff then?
Not at all so long as they respect the next referendum. Don't forget Nige, like Nicola was planning future referenda until he got the right result. Only in his case he got the right result earlier than anticipated. .
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
So Remain strongly in the lead ? Almost 60 - 40 I'd say.
Makes you wonder if there is simply a "spanner in the works" vote. If we had a remain government it would likely be 60 40 the other way. The trouble is the symbolic tussling is about to give way to concrete decisions.
Ha, just a few weeks ago I would've been dancing the streets with 'just' a 1% Tory lead. Now it feels quite deflating
Labour has made the strategic decision that all the votes it received were a positive endorsement of pro-Brexit socialism. I am not sure it's the right call.
I can only comment on the London vote. It was ALL anti-Brexit.
It was more of a mix here. When I was in Bosworth it was austerity that went down best. Unfortunately it got the Labour vote out rather than tactical for LD. People are sick of grinding austerity* and are not going to be happy as it worsens.
*I wonder whether the Irish approach was better. A sharp round of welfare and spending cuts, but a short one that allows recovery.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to have been cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum. Lord knows what might happen then!
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to be cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum Lord knows what might happen then!
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
The LD = UKIP scores are horrific for a party that is about to be led by a septugenarian - even if he is only a stop gap.
LDs below five seats at the next election?
Unlikely, the LDs only got 7% this time and gained seats. The immediate future for the LDs is as an anti-tory (Eng) or anti-SNP tactical voting option. A 5% score would more likely see the complete routing of any seats where they are not the close second place challenger though.
I also don't think Brexit will affect our next GE to much of an extent.
Look at it this way - the GE we've just had was meant to be all about Brexit and May started out on that path.
It didn't work because ultimately people were more interested in other things.
People have a limited attention span and I think many now think Brexit is quite complicated and technical - and of course they think it's decided. So they now think it's just a job that needs to be dealt with but they don't care about the details.
Unless it blows up big time - eg people heard it had been "cancelled" or whatever - I don't think it's going to be uppermost in people's minds.
It certainly will! If it is a disaster, or conversely a raging success, the incumbent will be punished or rewarded accordingly!
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
While a lot of young people might think it would be cool if we were more like Cuba, Venezuela, or North Korea, I think The Apocalypse's point is that this would not be a desirable thing.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to have been cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum. Lord knows what might happen then!
Agreed. It will be a very HOT potato. The easiest thing is to lob it back to the people who created the mess in the first place. Let them decide with all the full facts. For example, no £350m a week for the NHS.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
Well, my post wasn't a comment about how the wider electorate see Corbyn. It me expressing MY own views about what I'd like a socialist government to look like in Britain. Thus, the 'I'd rather not be'. In any case though, during the GE I was saying that the IRA stuff wasn't going to shift voters.
In response to your points though, if anything will bring Corbyn down, it'll be taking his voters for granted and believing that he has them in the bag - as well as operating on a TMay style strategy of believing that you can win a GE by only trying to appeal to WWC/JAMs voters (which his Brexit strategy implies).
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
Marxist - yes
I am yet to be convinced about his intellectual thoroughness. You would not think of him as a Marxixt academic. How many articles has he written even in his backbench days.
I think people do see him as sincere whereas they see most politicians as a bunch of rats.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to have been cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum. Lord knows what might happen then!
That is quite possible. The question would be Deal vs WTO Brexit, but thede would be a lot wanting Remain as a third option. I think it very likely that a government would funk the decision and go for a referendum.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
Since all the signs were that Mrs M was cruising to a safe win, people not unreasonably thought that the prospective government should have something to say on its own account; the incessant Tory knocking copy about someone who everyone knew wasn't going to win turned people off in droves.
The mystery is why some PB Tories seem to think that stepping up the knocking copy on Corbyn is going to do anything other than turn people off even more?
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
While a lot of young people might think it would be cool if we were more like Cuba, Venezuela, or North Korea, I think The Apocalypse's point is that this would not be a desirable thing.
Yep, that's the point I was trying to make.
I also doubt sincerely that vast majority of Corbyn's voters actually want us to be like North Korea.
I know some Corbynistas on my Timeline that where admiring Castro and Chavez and appear to believe that anything that goes wrong in those countries is down to the capitalist West. It's odd to see the people with Iphones who admire people like Drake and his lifestyle believing that such views aren't at all contradictory with liking Chavez and Castro.
The LD = UKIP scores are horrific for a party that is about to be led by a septugenarian - even if he is only a stop gap.
LDs below five seats at the next election?
No. It will gain a few. Probably 18-20.
How? 5% is an ELE...
The Lib Dem share of the vote went down last month and they still made net gains.
Perhaps they were lucky this time that they had should be facing such an inept Tory leader.
There are so few Lib Dem seats now that the statistical variability is large. But outside Scotland they made a net gain of only one seat. So mostly they were lucky that the SNP fell back.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
Well, my post wasn't a comment about how the wider electorate see Corbyn. It me expressing MY own views about what I'd like a socialist government to look like in Britain. Thus, the 'I'd rather not be'. In any case though, during the GE I was saying that the IRA stuff wasn't going to shift voters.
In response to your points though, if anything will bring Corbyn down, it'll be taking his voters for granted and believing that he has them in the bag - as well as operating on a TMay style strategy of believing that you can win a GE by only trying to appeal to WWC/JAMs voters (which his Brexit strategy implies).
I am not sure PB is the best place to dissect his Brexit views. He does not see Brexit through the prism most PBers see through. Two points are important to him:
1. Workers rights
2. Reflation, when necessary.
So, there is a conflict. Even many people close to him are Remainers.
The LD = UKIP scores are horrific for a party that is about to be led by a septugenarian - even if he is only a stop gap.
LDs below five seats at the next election?
No. It will gain a few. Probably 18-20.
How? 5% is an ELE...
The Lib Dem share of the vote went down last month and they still made net gains.
Perhaps they were lucky this time that they had should be facing such an inept Tory leader.
There are so few Lib Dem seats now that the statistical variability is large. But outside Scotland they made a net gain of only one seat. So mostly they were lucky that the SNP fell back.
That's kinda my point.
When Dave became Tory leader there were 62 Lib Dem MPs, when his tenure ended there were but 8 Lib Dem MPs.
Brexit will lead inexorably to the election of a socialist government. Which wasn't the future its advocates imagined, at all.
Looking at recent polls, and other fundamentals we can't really say for sure that it's going to lead to the election of the socialist government, tbf. Politics is very unpredictable right now.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
in or out of the EU, we're bound to get a socialist government at some point.
I'd rather it not be a government that included (a. John McDonnell (b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Barely two months ago, people here and almost everywhere were saying the same about Corbyn. The moment his IRA "friends" stories will come out, the moment his association with Hamas will come out etc. etc.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
It was never going to work. More people support Hamas and Hezbollah than the brutal Netanyahu government. This site is not representative. During the Gaza slaughter the figures were overwhelming. You can't judge anything by the noise Guido makes
Since all the signs were that Mrs M was cruising to a safe win, people not unreasonably thought that the prospective government should have something to say on its own account; the incessant Tory knocking copy about someone who everyone knew wasn't going to win turned people off in droves.
The mystery is why some PB Tories seem to think that stepping up the knocking copy on Corbyn is going to do anything other than turn people off even more?
While that's happened in past discussions on here (people believing that criticisms of Corbyn will win the GE for the Tories) that isn't what this discussion was about, and I don't see how it couldn't be interpreted otherwise. I expressed my own personal views as to why I'd hope a future socialist government wouldn't include John McDonnell and anyone who admires those who have pursued undemocratic socialist systems (as opposed to democratic socialists/social democrats in Europe). I wasn't advocating the Tories pursue a hyper-critical strategy towards Corbyn in a GE, if anything for the last few weeks I've been saying they need to run a positive camapign and actually give people reasons to vote FOR them. And right now, I'm a LD voter.
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?
Two thoughts, Where does one find the 6% of UKIP voters who have changed their minds.
Secondly does 76% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters, plus 34% of Tory voters mean a majority overall?
Staggering how frightened so many Labour MPs appear to be of just 20% of their supporters. This won't last. They'll go for a second referendum to put a stop to Brexit, if ever they get the chance.
Dream on while Corbyn is in charge. It's like Nixon in China - only the Tories can cancel Brexit, and that would only be considered if the negotiations were to collapse altogether.
I agree Labour politicians couldn't vote to scrap it, which is where the second vote comes in.
Personally I think it quite likely that the negotiations will end without a ratified agreement - there are just too many hurdles which would have to have been cleared. The specific choice could then crystallise: revoke A50 and remain OR leave completely. That would be a huge crisis. I do not think the political class could cope with such a dilemma and would be tempted to throw it back to a referendum. Lord knows what might happen then!
That is quite possible. The question would be Deal vs WTO Brexit, but thede would be a lot wanting Remain as a third option. I think it very likely that a government would funk the decision and go for a referendum.
Exactly. However, it is quite possible the wolf in May [ or, Corbyn, as some here seem to think ] will come out. I always thought she was a Hard Brexiter,
That is when the mother and father of rebellions will occur. After all, there is nothing more democratic than asking the people again.
Mr. Eagles, disregarding the highly improbable (Osborne/Cameron returning) what's your preferred course of events as far as the Conservative leadership goes?
Theresa May is ousted at conference and replaced by Johnny Mercer.
'I am yet to be convinced about his intellectual thoroughness. You would not think of him as a Marxixt academic. How many articles has he written even in his backbench days.
I think people do see him as sincere whereas they see most politicians as a bunch of rats.'
His policies would put our country back decades. Interesting that business is sounding alarm over both Brexit and the politics in the UK. They are well aware how destructive Corbyn would be. The idiotic idea to pay £10 per hour to 16 and 17 year olds shows how inept her is. In the US there is a move to increase the minimum wage and McDonalds have already announced that they will automate their business to save costs
The minute there is a sign that Corbyn may take office business will take steps to defend themselves and suddenly Corbyn will find his forest of money trees have disappeared to Ireland or France, both in the EU, or even the US who are looking at 15% corporation tax
Comments
"The message was dismissed as a warped joke
The picture of the goat is awesome though:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/as-image-goat.jpg?strip=all&quality=100&w=596
And for the article about the party itself.. I bet the girl in the silver skirt couldn't walk for days afterwards.
Edit - Ah I get you, there's a distinction between Tory members and Tory voters.
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/881212943760805890
May: + 58
Corbyn: +77
Sturgeon: +89
Nuttall: +1
Farron: +24
Review here, for those interested: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/review-greatest-traitor-life-of-sir.html
Mr. Eagles, is Mercer becoming leader plausible, though?
shows how crap he is
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/881196583571902464
This is like the antithesis of the Diadochi era. That had Craterus, Eumenes, Antipater, Antiochus, Ptolemy, Cassander, Seleucus and more all vying for dominance.
We have May and Corbyn. *sighs*
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Pidcock
Edited extra bit: https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/eu-specials/225327493/
May has had about as bad a time as possible - the fall out from the GE, Grenfell, Corbyn on crest of a wave and of course the toxic deal with the DUP only a few days ago - surely Con should now be falling well behind.
Yet Survation has Con +1. Though Opinium has Lab +6 which seems far more what would be expected as the minimum Lab lead.
Best bet for Con has to be head down, get through the next 3 weeks and then it's the summer recess. Then come back in 3 months and hope everything has started to calm down a bit.
Anyway these polls at least give Con supporters some hope that all is not lost - a new leader, a positive manifesto and whatever happens with Brexit they could well have a decent chance at any point between 2019 and 2022 especially if the Corbyn bubble starts deflating.
Odds on another 2017 GE on Betfair have drifted very significantly over the last few days.
Add in the small but real risk of a major recession causing second thoughts...
4s seems very slightly generous to me. If I had some money in my Ladbrokes account, I'd bet on it. But it's not sufficiently enticing to make me actually deposit cash.
Anyway, must be off.
That said, Brexit does appear to have rather unexpectedly moved the political centre more leftwards. I think many Brexiteers would have liked to have seen Britain go down a root of small state, low regulation, low tax. As it is, many voters seem to want the end of austerity and the expansion of the state particuarly in regard to public services such as health and education. I don't think many Brexiteers would have expected that at all, although I think many Leave Tories would be prepared to compromise on this issue in order to avoid a Corbyn government.
LDs below five seats at the next election?
The extraordinary transformation in the prime minister’s ratings, which were sky high in early April after she called the snap election, has been accompanied by a rise in public respect for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, according to a new Opinium survey for the Observer.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/over-60-of-voters-view-theresa-may-as-pm-negatively-poll
Look at it this way - the GE we've just had was meant to be all about Brexit and May started out on that path.
It didn't work because ultimately people were more interested in other things.
People have a limited attention span and I think many now think Brexit is quite complicated and technical - and of course they think it's decided. So they now think it's just a job that needs to be dealt with but they don't care about the details.
Unless it blows up big time - eg people heard it had been "cancelled" or whatever - I don't think it's going to be uppermost in people's minds.
.
*I wonder whether the Irish approach was better. A sharp round of welfare and spending cuts, but a short one that allows recovery.
(a. John McDonnell
(b. Anyone who admires Lenin, Mao, Chavez, Julian Assange and watches RT. It's one thing to admire social democrats across the European continent, it's another thing to believe that a USSR style system is desirable for Britain.
Perhaps they were lucky this time that they had should be facing such an inept Tory leader.
Bugger all happened. In fact, I think, he got more street cred among young people. Why have posters about foreign revolutionaries, when you have one at home. In reality, he has hardly even shouted in anger. His politics is not based on any intellectual analysis. He is a waffle but a sincere waffler. The last bit, I think, helps him. He is seen as genuine.
In response to your points though, if anything will bring Corbyn down, it'll be taking his voters for granted and believing that he has them in the bag - as well as operating on a TMay style strategy of believing that you can win a GE by only trying to appeal to WWC/JAMs voters (which his Brexit strategy implies).
I think people do see him as sincere whereas they see most politicians as a bunch of rats.
Today I watched Despicable Me 3.
The mystery is why some PB Tories seem to think that stepping up the knocking copy on Corbyn is going to do anything other than turn people off even more?
I also doubt sincerely that vast majority of Corbyn's voters actually want us to be like North Korea.
I know some Corbynistas on my Timeline that where admiring Castro and Chavez and appear to believe that anything that goes wrong in those countries is down to the capitalist West. It's odd to see the people with Iphones who admire people like Drake and his lifestyle believing that such views aren't at all contradictory with liking Chavez and Castro.
1. Workers rights
2. Reflation, when necessary.
So, there is a conflict. Even many people close to him are Remainers.
When Dave became Tory leader there were 62 Lib Dem MPs, when his tenure ended there were but 8 Lib Dem MPs.
That is when the mother and father of rebellions will occur. After all, there is nothing more democratic than asking the people again.
Has anyone been to Doha on Qatar ? What is the lounge like ? I presume plush like Dubai.
https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/881114072871301120
Accrington StanleyJohnny Mercer? Who are they?REMAIN 48%
'I am yet to be convinced about his intellectual thoroughness. You would not think of him as a Marxixt academic. How many articles has he written even in his backbench days.
I think people do see him as sincere whereas they see most politicians as a bunch of rats.'
His policies would put our country back decades. Interesting that business is sounding alarm over both Brexit and the politics in the UK. They are well aware how destructive Corbyn would be. The idiotic idea to pay £10 per hour to 16 and 17 year olds shows how inept her is. In the US there is a move to increase the minimum wage and McDonalds have already announced that they will automate their business to save costs
The minute there is a sign that Corbyn may take office business will take steps to defend themselves and suddenly Corbyn will find his forest of money trees have disappeared to Ireland or France, both in the EU, or even the US who are looking at 15% corporation tax
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/30/chuka-umunna-single-market-amendment-brexit-split-labour-party