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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Everything is negotiable, how the election result may have improved Britain’s negotiating position in the Brexit talks
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Theresa May called the general election calling for a mandate for her Brexit vision. In her own words:
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It does improve our negotiating position, because being able to say "I won't be able to sell this" is a powerful negotiating tactic.
But it also increases the chance of no deal. So many people being able to veto the deal increases the likelihood of no deal being able to secure a majority in the House.
May's disastrous incompetence and misjudgement has both weakened the British side and made an agreement less likely. It is pretty hard to forgive her for that. And to be honest I am not really minded to even start.
The default, if Parliament passes nothing, is a cliff edge "chaos" to WTO terms in March 2019; how close to that date do the likes of Chuka Umunna think that supporting a Canada-type deal is preferable to the cliff?
As last, week saw, the PLP is more divided than the PCP on this, there's most likely to be an HoC Majority for whatever the Govt propose (with a lot of whipping required).
I have no confidence in our negotiating civil servants who are, on the very basis of their training and the prevailing Whitehall culture, a bunch of pinkos and traitors. The only reason they aren't still all commies any more is that there's nobody left to properly spy for. And the reduction in the number of Cambridge graduate recruits has helped with that too, obviously.
No, the last great hope we have is that too many competing voices on both sides help us along nicely to an ECJ-free WTO cushion of stability and freedom. Brexit despite our politicians ... not because of them.
Hard WTO Brexit is the default, and becomes ever more nailed on by the day. The only alternatives are agreeing the EU package or A50 withdrawal. Neither would be acceptable to a Tory government.
By nature an optimist, while a Remainer I reckoned the British people must have been onto something when they voted to Leave, and again as a Tory, I suspect history will reveal their wisdom in depriving Mrs May of her majority. From a constitutional point of view the Scots delivered the most important result.
It undoubtedly makes negotiating a deal more difficult - but the stark reminder of their own political mortality should have concentrated Tory minds wonderfully, meanwhile their opposition believe they can demonstrate their way into power......
Premier League champions Chelsea have signed ex-Manchester City goalkeeper Willy Caballero on a free transfer.
I can't see even a glimmer of hope for any sort of recognisable Brexit or even for the survival of those who sold the idea in the first place. All the weapons including the entire officer class are now lined up against a scattered and defeated rag-tag of chancers and opportunists.
It's not only the negotiators who can see this. The humiliation is visible to the world
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4656926/Student-union-president-calls-Islamic-takeover.html
It's a very old - medieval - Spanish surname but that's all I've got with this one.
And when I say 50, I mean 50. Apparently they have so many, they have their own dedicated WhatAps group where they give each other tips about playing out on loan for years on end.
PS. Your man had a good General Election. Well done!
As we've mostly agreed downthread though, Hameed should get the experience even if he's not in great nick and Ballance should have exhausted his chances by now.
Continually going back to Balance reminds me of Hick and more recently Finn. Neither were / are good enough, but the selectors keep going back to them.
Of course the EU briefs against our position. What else do you expect?
Ballance is currently looking Bothamesque with a strike rate of 31. It must be nail-biting stuff in the ground.
Hopefully Westley will get to treble figures before they give up and take the draw.
Hick was my example from below on the thread as well of someone who got too many chances. Finn was more horses for courses and in the right conditions, like so many bowlers, he was the right pick. And elsewhere he certainly wasn't.
On balance (see what I did there?) Hick and Ramps too were lucky in their run of selectors.
His bowling now reminds me of golfers who get the yips.
Ha-ha-ha. Suddenly, the deficit is not that important. Labour ain't gonna give up this winning formula. They get 18-24 olds and their parents for little cost. I read somewhere that large amounts of the loans have to written off apparently.
I think @CarlottaVance makes an important extra point; the political price of rebellion for every Tory MP has drastically increased since 8th June. I think that, plus the obvious influence of Hammond and other Remainers, will give the Europhiles the cover they need to support the government.
@faisalislam: ...pretty sure I did most reporting on Euratom first - heard no attempt even to suggest was 1. Sensible. 2. Good 3. Safe 4. Evidence-based..
@faisalislam: ..rationale was..we're leaving all jurisdiction of ECJ, because its will of the people, therefore we have to leave Euratom because of ECJ..
@faisalislam: ...and I say this as a journalist who did actually bother to try to explore ECJ as issue in referendum campaign live interview with Cameron
Incidentally, at first I was pleasantly surprised, and thought Islam was criticising the decision to fold Euratom into the EU (rather than have it be, *gasp*, a non-EU independent organisation), before realising he was, quite shockingly, criticising an aspect of our leaving the EU.
Incidentally 2: Incident Harder, it's amusing he 'actually bothered' to do some research for the Cameron interview, given that, during another interview, he kept referring to the Lord High Chancellor.
Edited extra bit: that latter interview being with Gove, of course.
Recession by the end of the year ?
How many working class people live in London, Birmingham, Manchester ? 60% of them voted Labour.
But I suppose the question is the outcome the EU is hoping for.
If they wish to 'punish' us, surely us dropping out to WTO in 2019 would be their optimal solution.
If they wish to keep us in the fold, their optimal outcome is probably to convince us to reverse Brexit entirely and remain.
Both of those options are now within easy grasp - simply present a deal up to the deadline on 2019 that is unacceptable and won't make it through Parliament and force us to choose between remaining in - they could leave the door open if they so choose - or inflicting maximum punishment.
A great article from Mr Meeks - but it assumes a middle-ground deal is in the EU's interest. If it's not, the EU's task of either keeping us in, or pushing us off the cliff, just got x100 easier.
He might just be one of those batsmen who can't successfully make the step up, but given the start of the season it's hard to argue he hasn't earned his second chance. I don't think the selectors would even have glanced at him had he not been in sparkling form - he might be a Hick, but he's not a Finn.
"The only alternative to hard Brexit is no Brexit"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/its-hard-brexit-or-no-brexit-at-all-says-eu-council-president
It is worth watching the videoclip embedded at the top of the article.
https://twitter.com/theifs/status/868023274491576320?lang=en-gb
It's very rare to put the principal in the room until you are ready to haggle the last details.
The funniest one I ever saw was when I kept my principal away from the room until the last minute. The President of a US multinational then flew in to close - with 5 points left to negotiate.
He insisted on meeting the principal so he could be the man who closed the deal himself... he came away from that room having given on all 5 points, and surrendered on 2 more that we had agreed with him team.
Motto: never negotiate with a German farmer...
I think that Brexit is like the monarchy, something that is of minor interest, and a distraction from his real political objectives. He really isn't that bothered, and in that is actually fairly in tune with most voters.
The idea that they only did well at the election thanks to people hoping they'd stop Brexit, or that they're going to be in trouble in future by supporting Brexit, is for the birds.
* Smashing capitalism, abolishing the monarchy, and disarmament all likely come ahead.
Half-heartedly backing Remain when it came to it was about the best thing he could do for us. Jeremy Corbyn, the quiet hero of Brexit.
https://twitter.com/NHAparty/status/880774788007985153
https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/881183317089017856
https://twitter.com/TheaDickinson/status/881148719445536768
What is the dispute resolution mechanism?
Are there rules preventing use of product standards as NTBs? (And if so, how are they enforced)
What about animal treatment standards? (I.e., can you import animal products that were treated less well in the exported-to country)
What are the Rules of Origin for re-exports?
Cross border provision of services: to what extent are qualifications recognised between countries?
What are the systems for the electronic provision of cargo manifests?
Rules regarding cross border provision of financial services?
etc. etc. etc.
Now, the NAFTA treaties are the extreme end (more than 22mb of text, excluding appendices).
But CETA, at 1,598 pages, isn't much better. (And in combination the Swiss bilateral treaties are more than 8,000 pages, depending on the language.)
Shorter agreements (like the Israel-EU Euromed agreement) would be unacceptable to large numbers of people, because (a) they don't offer the degree of services liberalisation that we need, and (b) they leave too much sovereignty in the hands of the EU as regards dispute resolution.
My personal view is that the government will likely fall in early 2019 because it will become clear that there are not the votes for the specific proposals of the government, and the Labour Party would rather see the Conservative government chaotically fall than back their Brexit deal. What happens then is unclear: the EU could agree to a three month extension while a new government is elected, or we could crash out. Irrespective, there is a great deal of uncertainty ahead.
I'm quite happy to "own" Brexit or "carry the can" as you put it. When it's a success nobody will admit to having been a remoaner. Rather like Headingley in 1981, when everything turns out great more people will claim to have been in the ground cheering on Botham than the place could have physically seated.