politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader

Backed him the other day too.

Always liked him, Dave sacking him a few years ago was a mistake by Cameron.

Crucially Damian Green doesn't have any enemies in the party, and people still admire him after his scandalous arrest in 2008.

Isn't he sopping wet/on the left of the party?

Can't see him becoming leader, but maybe that'll work as a trading bet. Same odds as Button was to win the title in 2009, though.

Morris_Dancer said:

Isn't he sopping wet/on the left of the party?

Can't see him becoming leader, but maybe that'll work as a trading bet. Same odds as Button was to win the title in 2009, though.

He's a proper One Nation Tory/TRGer, the only kind of Tory leader that has won the Tories a majority in the last 25 years.

GIN1138 said:

I don't think so...

Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

Completely agree. The only trouble is promoting people is easy, but relegating others may be painfully difficult.

GIN1138 said:

I don't think so...

Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

I agree with you Gin, when I look at the candidates and the names touted about I don't see many inspired choices.

Brom said:

GIN1138 said:

I don't think so...

Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

Completely agree. The only trouble is promoting people is easy, but relegating others may be painfully difficult.

I sense TM is beginning to get a grip and assert her authority slightly.

If she gets to Conservative conference her position will probably be secure until Brexit it done. At that point she can probably start to think about a proper reshuffle and getting some fresh faces into the Cabinet.

Mr. Eagles, TRG?

Not sure Green comes across as PM material.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, TRG?

Not sure Green comes across as PM material.

Tory Reform Group.

President of the TRG is Ken Clarke, Vice President if Damian Green.

If you type a longish post on here using your iPhone, then delete it by holding down the backspace key, it sounds very similar to the start of 'Blue Monday' by New Order

GIN1138 said:

Brom said:

GIN1138 said:

I don't think so...

Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

Completely agree. The only trouble is promoting people is easy, but relegating others may be painfully difficult.

I sense TM is beginning to get a grip and assert her authority slightly.

If she gets to Conservative conference her position will probably be secure until Brexit it done. At that point she can probably start to think about a proper reshuffle and getting some fresh faces into the Cabinet.

Sadly for the country, there is no alternative. Boris is the Tory Diane Abbott, Davis is currently winging it over Brexit and getting found out, and Hammond is far too sensible for the backbench swivel-eyed Euro-loons. The paucity of Tory talent is a thing to behold.

Roger said:

He's likeable.

So unless he joins the Lib Dems...

Unlikely. He ticks all the Yellow's boxes being White and Male, but he's far too young to be their leader.

A Green as Prime Minister ??

Brighton Pavilion Klaxon Alert.

I like Boris, he's great fun, would bring much needed light relief to the dullards we currently have. The PM sets the tone for the country, he'd put a smile on our faces in the same way Brown made us all miserable, Cameron/Clegg made us confused and May has us slowly shaking our heads.

No chance. Matthew Parris wrote years ago about how Green was seen by the grass roots as little short of a communist.

AlastairMeeks said:

He's homoiousian at a time when the Conservatives will insist on a homoousian.

A homoiousian (from the Greek: "similar" and "essence, being") was a member of 4th-century AD theological party which held that God the Son was of a similar, but not identical, substance or essence to God the Father.

freetochoose said:

I like Boris, he's great fun, would bring much needed light relief to the dullards we currently have. The PM sets the tone for the country, he'd put a smile on our faces in the same way Brown made us all miserable, Cameron/Clegg made us confused and May has us slowly shaking our heads.

The only problem with Boris is whether people are laughing with him or at him...

He's utterly beige and I just do not think that will cut the mustard with the party now, particularly if it is moving into a stage of renewal.

When a party has Lucy Frazer, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jonny Mercer wasted in its lower echelons, it does not need to look towards Damien Green. The likes of Davis, Johnson, Green, Fox should not be allowed anywhere near the leadership.

May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

Corbyn's response back to his weak level.

The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

Mr. L, no!

David_Evershed said:

May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

She's starting to get a grip, IMO.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tpfkar, agree he'd be better than Boris or Fox [discounting May as she won't be there].

Unsure of Davis.

Hammond is perhaps the best bet for the Conservatives.

Mr. Eagles, cheers, though I'm not sure saying Green is Ken Clarke's deputy will unite the party behind him

Davis-mmmm. Maybe he can come up with this magical Brexit deal that 80% of the country can live with - all power to his elbow if so, and it would put him in pole position. But I fear he's about to experience the opposite, accused of betrayal on both sides for any compromise on "true Brexit" and for damaging business and families.

I think he'd be quite similar to May in his aims and way of working, not sure that's enough of a change given the election result. But who knows - maybe there is inner charm and a uniting manner I haven't picked up on.

Was reading on twitter some comments that the identity of Tower blocks with combustible cladding needs to be made known. I'd have thought that would be a dangerous move, it would make a low tech terror attack far too easy to attempt.

isam said:

Now why is there a housing crisis again?

https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

That can't be right, I thought that since the referendum vote Britain had become so horrible that nobody wanted to come here, and that Remainers were fleeing to safety. Hmmm.

June 2016. So ignore my post.


A day or so ago Patrick made a comment about immigration in Germany and how it was less of an issue as it offset a lower birth rate.

I thought, is that true? Anyway I went a looked up some figures and it was basically correct. The German population is steady and projected to decline a little by the 2030s. On the other hand the UK population will blast past 70 million long before 2030 it now seems, and might even exceed that of Germany by 2050.

dyedwoolie said:

The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

It is most certainly a huge turning point in the issue of housing and especially high rise blocks.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Typo said:

He's utterly beige and I just do not think that will cut the mustard with the party now, particularly if it is moving into a stage of renewal.

When a party has Lucy Frazer, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jonny Mercer wasted in its lower echelons, it does not need to look towards Damien Green. The likes of Davis, Johnson, Green, Fox should not be allowed anywhere near the leadership.

To promote backbench talent, Theresa May needs to demote frontbenchers -- which she can't because she is too weak now and every dullard junior minister will have at least one big beast protecting them. The usual solution would be to free up spaces by kicking the incumbents upstairs to the House of Lords but the government will not want to risk by-elections.

She's weak NOW but if she get's to the Autumn then she's secure until March 2019 (will the Tories really risk a leadership contest in 2018? I don't think so)

And it won't really matter if she makes enemies once her postilion is secure because she'll be resigning after Brexit is signed anyway.

I think the timetable works something like this:

1. TM gets to 2017 Con conference.

2. Autumn/Winter 2017/18 she has a thorough reshuffle. Gets rid of several cabinet ministers and promotes plenty of fresh talent.

3. We leave the EU in March 2019 and TM resigns sometime shortly afterwards.

4. New Con leader (hopefully a fresh face) takes over by 2019 Con conference.

5. Possible general election in Spring 2020.

Richard_Nabavi said:

David Lammy:

The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.

Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.

He's really not very bright. Tottenham deserves better.

AndyJS said:

"I lost out on bank job because I ordered in English at an Italian restaurant, reveals Justine Greening as she launches new social mobility index"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4627286/Justine-Greening-lost-job-ordering-English.html

What is Italian for chip on the shoulder?

David_Evershed said:

dyedwoolie said:

The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

It was reported on Newnight that the cladding used on Grenfell has only been used in a few other places and is not widely used.

Which brings up s troubling point. Are other types of cladding being sent in for testing also combustible?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

David Lammy:

The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.

Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.

He's a mastermind.

He's grieving for a friend, and has my full sympathy. Nevertheless May can't prejudice the investigation.

William_H said:

dyedwoolie said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/877821404040843264

Part of criminal investigation. She knows but can't say in case it prejudices any prosecution.

How come Hammond could say it a few days ago?

He probably shouldn't have.

dyedwoolie said:

David_Evershed said:

dyedwoolie said:

The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

It was reported on Newnight that the cladding used on Grenfell has only been used in a few other places and is not widely used.

Which brings up s troubling point. Are other types of cladding being sent in for testing also combustible?

There have also been issues with the way the testing is specified, so panels that pass the tests are not as safe as we might assume.

See this example of the investigation into a recent fire here in Dubai:
http://www.thenational.ae/business/property/revealed-how-the-address-downtown-dubai-hotel-fire-test-was-meaningless

Dadge said:

Unfortunately although unsafe cladding needs to be removed I think that in many cases residents are being scared unnecessarily. A major contributing factor to the Grenfell disaster was the chimney effect caused by the way the cladding was fitted. Where the cladding has been fitted better, the fact that the cladding is not non-flammable is much less significant.

We don't know that for sure yet. We also don't know if there were other contributory factors (for example, in addition to fire spreading via the cladding it might also have spread internally, if the fire-barriers between floors were defective).

One helpful point is that it appears from the photos that the cladding remains in place unharmed on the lower part of the building, so they'll very easily be able to assess exactly how it was fitted.

David_Evershed said:

May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

Corbyn's response back to his weak level.

Corbyn: "I hope the prime minister will correct the mistakes of the former home secretary."

glw said:

isam said:

Now why is there a housing crisis again?

https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

That can't be right, I thought that since the referendum vote Britain had become so horrible that nobody wanted to come here, and that Remainers were fleeing to safety. Hmmm.

Looks like this lags the most recent immigration figures.

Put most broadly, the reason is 50/50 between net working age immigration and baby boomers aging and filling out the population tree. Our population rises by about 3-4m over the next generation even without the former, but would be very top heavy on pensioners.

The ideal net immigration numbers reduce that top heaviness in the short-term, but allow population to plateau and perhaps edge down slowly once baby boomers die off in greater numbers. The sweet spot for current net immigration is 100-150k per year, but obviously that would vary as the demographics develop.

Green seems a reasonable bet. Still 16 on BF. I have taken a nibble.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David_Evershed said:

May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

Corbyn's response back to his weak level.

It is sad that MP's always have to try to politicise events rather than add constructive commentary to what is a very serious national matter

Indeed, would the same questions be asked of the PM in response to something like a plane crash?

There's a team of experienced people who are investigating this accident, we need to give them the resources to get their job done quickly and thoroughly before paying close attention to their reports. As much as everyone would like this to be done in a week, in the real world these things take time to do properly.

Since there has been so much criticism of Theresa May in recent days (not least from me), it's only fair to point out that she is actually very good in getting a grip in this kind of crisis. She might not have been great in the public display of empathy immediately after the tragedy, but when it comes to actually getting things moving to deal with the problem, she's thorough and shows leadership.

Hopefuly she is now also getting over what must have been the hugely confidence-sapping shock of the election disaster.

"UK population sees sharpest rise in nearly 70 years"

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-06-22/uk-population-sees-sharpest-rise-in-70-years/

Pulpstar said:

"UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

Wrong type of immigrants ?

Worth reading all the responses to this

https://twitter.com/zoeconway1/status/877801383281524736

Richard_Nabavi said:

Since there has been so much criticism of Theresa May in recent days (not least from me), it's only fair to point out that she is actually very good in getting a grip in this kind of crisis. She might not have been great in the public display of empathy immediately after the tragedy, but when it comes to actually getting things moving to deal with the problem, she's thorough and shows leadership.

Hopefuly she is now also getting over what must have been the hugely confidence-sapping shock of the election disaster.

Indeed. An issue with these Tory leadership bets is that we may have tied our money up for two, three or possible even more years.

For the brave there is an 8% return available on BF for May being PM after QS vote i.e. forms a government after royal assent. 1.08 that it is May. 8% in a week is better than a bank account.

If I had more money to 'risk' in betting scenarios I might be tempted on this one.

I thought about backing Damian Green - and agree he's good - but changed my mind when he struggled to handle McDonnell when he went for him over being a director of a privatised water utility.

Green was absolutely right (McDonnell doesn't know jack about the Bond markets) but he came over as too gentile and avuncular.

Nice guy. Clever guy. Competent guy. Not enough grit.

And he doesn't have hair.

rottenborough said:

For the brave there is an 8% return available on BF for May being PM after QS vote i.e. forms a government after royal assent. 1.08 that it is May. 8% in a week is better than a bank account.

If I had more money to 'risk' in betting scenarios I might be tempted on this one.

You're probably right, but lesson learned a fortnight ago about betting big at short odds on the Tory majority.

ThreeQuidder said:

Beverley_C said:

Dadge said:

Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit

As the old proverb puts it... "Be careful what you wish for - you might get it"

Does "making it difficult to recruit" mean "he doesn't want to pay locals proper wages"?

How much extra a week are you prepared to pay for your groceries to ensure British farmers employ British workers?

Pro_Rata said:

The ideal net immigration numbers reduce that top heaviness in the short-term, but allow population to plateau and perhaps edge down slowly once baby boomers die off in greater numbers. The sweet spot for current net immigration is 100-150k per year, but obviously that would vary as the demographics develop.

I've no idea what the right level of immigration is, but it is going to put a huge strain on national resources if our population hits 70 million next decade and is still rising at a similar rate. I don't think many politicians have grasped the scale of the issue, we need to build at least a Birmingham's worth of everything every couple of years just to stand still, if we want to make up the deficit that has accrued we might need to nearly double that.

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

"UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

Wrong type of immigrants ?

Worth reading all the responses to this

https://twitter.com/zoeconway1/status/877801383281524736

Maybe people don't like working there.

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

If British consumers were prepared to pay higher prices, farmers could pay higher wages and would not be so dependent on cheap foreign labour. We're not, though.

Apparently he pays above minimum wage, with free accommodation

Is it full-time work, or seasonal?

SouthamObserver said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Beverley_C said:

Dadge said:

Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit

As the old proverb puts it... "Be careful what you wish for - you might get it"

Does "making it difficult to recruit" mean "he doesn't want to pay locals proper wages"?

How much extra a week are you prepared to pay for your groceries to ensure British farmers employ British workers?

And in turn, how much are people prepared to pay a week to ensure that immigrants doing menial jobs live in good quality social housing, with the necessary infrastructure?

SouthamObserver said:

Is it full-time work, or seasonal?

Packing Strawberries?

I am going to guess, seasonal.