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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader

One of TMay’s appointments that didn’t get much attention in the post GE2017 reshuffle was that of Damian Green as First Secretary of State. He’s effectively her deputy and looks set to be the safe pair of hands that gets put up to be interviewed when things look tricky. This is likely to happen a lot given the lack of a parliamentary majority.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    edited June 2017
    Backed him the other day too.

    Always liked him, Dave sacking him a few years ago was a mistake by Cameron.

    Crucially Damian Green doesn't have any enemies in the party, and people still admire him after his scandalous arrest in 2008.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    I don't think so...

    Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

    There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Isn't he sopping wet/on the left of the party?

    Can't see him becoming leader, but maybe that'll work as a trading bet. Same odds as Button was to win the title in 2009, though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited June 2017
    4th like Liverpool!

    A good bet from Mike, 19.5 on Betfair now!!
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    edited June 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Isn't he sopping wet/on the left of the party?

    Can't see him becoming leader, but maybe that'll work as a trading bet. Same odds as Button was to win the title in 2009, though.

    He's a proper One Nation Tory/TRGer, the only kind of Tory leader that has won the Tories a majority in the last 25 years.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    FPT

    All this stuff about hard/soft Brexit seems pointless to me now the DUP have confirmed they are in favour of leaving the single market and customs union and will be voting with the government?

    Even accounting for Con rebellions from the likes of Clarke and Soubry the government should still have the numbers for the Brexit they want (especially as you'll have a few people on the Labour side like Field and Hoey also voting with the government)

    Looks like we're leaving the single market and customs union. The only question is whether there's any transitional arrangements and if so how long they last.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think so...

    Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

    There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

    Completely agree. The only trouble is promoting people is easy, but relegating others may be painfully difficult.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    GIN1138 said:


    Looks like we're leaving the single market and customs union. The only question is whether there's any transitional arrangements and if so how long they last.

    #PrayforTysonstaxes
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think so...

    Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

    There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

    I agree with you Gin, when I look at the candidates and the names touted about I don't see many inspired choices.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Brom said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think so...

    Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

    There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

    Completely agree. The only trouble is promoting people is easy, but relegating others may be painfully difficult.
    Yep, that's the difficult bit, promoting new talent while avoiding making enemies. These things are a lot more difficult in government than opposition too, the likes of Cameron and Blair had years to build a new and young team when out of power.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    Brom said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think so...

    Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

    There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

    Completely agree. The only trouble is promoting people is easy, but relegating others may be painfully difficult.
    I sense TM is beginning to get a grip and assert her authority slightly.

    If she gets to Conservative conference her position will probably be secure until Brexit it done. At that point she can probably start to think about a proper reshuffle and getting some fresh faces into the Cabinet.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    He's homoiousian at a time when the Conservatives will insist on a homoousian.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Eagles, TRG?

    Not sure Green comes across as PM material.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Green seems to be well to the left of the Tory mainstream on most things. He's even on record as saying he doesn't think the BBC is a huge anti-Tory plot, isn't he?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, TRG?

    Not sure Green comes across as PM material.

    Tory Reform Group.

    President of the TRG is Ken Clarke, Vice President if Damian Green.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    He's likeable.

    So unless he joins the Lib Dems he's got no chance
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If you type a longish post on here using your iPhone, then delete it by holding down the backspace key, it sounds very similar to the start of 'Blue Monday' by New Order
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    I think the Tories could do a lot worse than Green. Theresa May, Boris, Fox, Davis et al may be popular within the party but they are all hated outside. There comes a point where a divisive nature gets in the way of leading the whole country and they all seem the wrong side of the line.

    Green may well be a breath of fresh air if it comes to it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    GIN1138 said:

    Brom said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think so...

    Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.

    There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.

    Completely agree. The only trouble is promoting people is easy, but relegating others may be painfully difficult.
    I sense TM is beginning to get a grip and assert her authority slightly.

    If she gets to Conservative conference her position will probably be secure until Brexit it done. At that point she can probably start to think about a proper reshuffle and getting some fresh faces into the Cabinet.

    Sadly for the country, there is no alternative. Boris is the Tory Diane Abbott, Davis is currently winging it over Brexit and getting found out, and Hammond is far too sensible for the backbench swivel-eyed Euro-loons. The paucity of Tory talent is a thing to behold.

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    tpfkar said:

    I think the Tories could do a lot worse than Green. Theresa May, Boris, Fox, Davis et al may be popular within the party but they are all hated outside. There comes a point where a divisive nature gets in the way of leading the whole country and they all seem the wrong side of the line.

    Green may well be a breath of fresh air if it comes to it.

    I think it's a stretch to say Davis is hated. Boris is very much marmite and personal ratings are on the wane. Fox will never be leader.

    A breath of fresh air would be Stewart or Kwarteng. Less so Damien Green.
  • kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    edited June 2017
    Roger said:

    He's likeable.

    So unless he joins the Lib Dems...

    Unlikely. He ticks all the Yellow's boxes being White and Male, but he's far too young to be their leader.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Tpfkar, agree he'd be better than Boris or Fox [discounting May as she won't be there].

    Unsure of Davis.

    Hammond is perhaps the best bet for the Conservatives.

    Mr. Eagles, cheers, though I'm not sure saying Green is Ken Clarke's deputy will unite the party behind him :p
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    A Green as Prime Minister ??

    Brighton Pavilion Klaxon Alert.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    AlastairMeeks said:

    He's homoiousian at a time when the Conservatives will insist on a homoousian.

    You took the words out of my mouth......
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    I like Boris, he's great fun, would bring much needed light relief to the dullards we currently have. The PM sets the tone for the country, he'd put a smile on our faces in the same way Brown made us all miserable, Cameron/Clegg made us confused and May has us slowly shaking our heads.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done

    So, 10 years then...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    No chance. Matthew Parris wrote years ago about how Green was seen by the grass roots as little short of a communist.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    AlastairMeeks said:

    He's homoiousian at a time when the Conservatives will insist on a homoousian.

    A homoiousian (from the Greek: "similar" and "essence, being") was a member of 4th-century AD theological party which held that God the Son was of a similar, but not identical, substance or essence to God the Father.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    "The House of Commons has primacy, not the executive or government"

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/877817998450585600
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    freetochoose said:

    I like Boris, he's great fun, would bring much needed light relief to the dullards we currently have. The PM sets the tone for the country, he'd put a smile on our faces in the same way Brown made us all miserable, Cameron/Clegg made us confused and May has us slowly shaking our heads.

    The only problem with Boris is whether people are laughing with him or at him... ;)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Tpfkar, agree he'd be better than Boris or Fox [discounting May as she won't be there].

    Unsure of Davis.

    Hammond is perhaps the best bet for the Conservatives.

    Mr. Eagles, cheers, though I'm not sure saying Green is Ken Clarke's deputy will unite the party behind him :p

    Green is Theresa May's deputy as well as Ken Clarke's: does that help?
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    He's utterly beige and I just do not think that will cut the mustard with the party now, particularly if it is moving into a stage of renewal.

    When a party has Lucy Frazer, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jonny Mercer wasted in its lower echelons, it does not need to look towards Damien Green. The likes of Davis, Johnson, Green, Fox should not be allowed anywhere near the leadership.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    isam said:

    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

    "UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

    Wrong type of immigrants ?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

    Corbyn's response back to his weak level.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "I lost out on bank job because I ordered in English at an Italian restaurant, reveals Justine Greening as she launches new social mobility index"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4627286/Justine-Greening-lost-job-ordering-English.html
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.
  • kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    isam said:

    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

    Thousands of Rentier landlords returning from Europe for tax reasons.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. L, no! :p
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited June 2017
    Typo said:

    He's utterly beige and I just do not think that will cut the mustard with the party now, particularly if it is moving into a stage of renewal.

    When a party has Lucy Frazer, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jonny Mercer wasted in its lower echelons, it does not need to look towards Damien Green. The likes of Davis, Johnson, Green, Fox should not be allowed anywhere near the leadership.

    That's my view.

    I don't know much about about the individuals but I do think after Theresa May it'll be time for fresh faces and renewal... That's the only way to take on Jezza (who might be looking rather old hat by 2019/2020 as well)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    David_Evershed said:

    May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

    She's starting to get a grip, IMO.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Typo said:

    He's utterly beige and I just do not think that will cut the mustard with the party now, particularly if it is moving into a stage of renewal.

    When a party has Lucy Frazer, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jonny Mercer wasted in its lower echelons, it does not need to look towards Damien Green. The likes of Davis, Johnson, Green, Fox should not be allowed anywhere near the leadership.

    To promote backbench talent, Theresa May needs to demote frontbenchers -- which she can't because she is too weak now and every dullard junior minister will have at least one big beast protecting them. The usual solution would be to free up spaces by kicking the incumbents upstairs to the House of Lords but the government will not want to risk by-elections.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Tpfkar, agree he'd be better than Boris or Fox [discounting May as she won't be there].

    Unsure of Davis.

    Hammond is perhaps the best bet for the Conservatives.

    Mr. Eagles, cheers, though I'm not sure saying Green is Ken Clarke's deputy will unite the party behind him :p

    Davis-mmmm. Maybe he can come up with this magical Brexit deal that 80% of the country can live with - all power to his elbow if so, and it would put him in pole position. But I fear he's about to experience the opposite, accused of betrayal on both sides for any compromise on "true Brexit" and for damaging business and families.

    I think he'd be quite similar to May in his aims and way of working, not sure that's enough of a change given the election result. But who knows - maybe there is inner charm and a uniting manner I haven't picked up on.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/877821404040843264
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Was reading on twitter some comments that the identity of Tower blocks with combustible cladding needs to be made known. I'd have thought that would be a dangerous move, it would make a low tech terror attack far too easy to attempt.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    David_Evershed said:

    May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

    Corbyn's response back to his weak level.

    It is sad that MP's always have to try to politicise events rather than add constructive commentary to what is a very serious national matter
  • glwglw Posts: 10,005
    edited June 2017
    isam said:

    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

    That can't be right, I thought that since the referendum vote Britain had become so horrible that nobody wanted to come here, and that Remainers were fleeing to safety. Hmmm.

    June 2016. So ignore my post.


    A day or so ago Patrick made a comment about immigration in Germany and how it was less of an issue as it offset a lower birth rate.

    I thought, is that true? Anyway I went a looked up some figures and it was basically correct. The German population is steady and projected to decline a little by the 2030s. On the other hand the UK population will blast past 70 million long before 2030 it now seems, and might even exceed that of Germany by 2050.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/877821404040843264

    Part of criminal investigation. She knows but can't say in case it prejudices any prosecution.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    dyedwoolie said:

    The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

    It is most certainly a huge turning point in the issue of housing and especially high rise blocks.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    David Lammy:

    The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.

    Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited June 2017
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Typo said:

    He's utterly beige and I just do not think that will cut the mustard with the party now, particularly if it is moving into a stage of renewal.

    When a party has Lucy Frazer, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jonny Mercer wasted in its lower echelons, it does not need to look towards Damien Green. The likes of Davis, Johnson, Green, Fox should not be allowed anywhere near the leadership.

    To promote backbench talent, Theresa May needs to demote frontbenchers -- which she can't because she is too weak now and every dullard junior minister will have at least one big beast protecting them. The usual solution would be to free up spaces by kicking the incumbents upstairs to the House of Lords but the government will not want to risk by-elections.
    She's weak NOW but if she get's to the Autumn then she's secure until March 2019 (will the Tories really risk a leadership contest in 2018? I don't think so)

    And it won't really matter if she makes enemies once her postilion is secure because she'll be resigning after Brexit is signed anyway.

    I think the timetable works something like this:

    1. TM gets to 2017 Con conference.

    2. Autumn/Winter 2017/18 she has a thorough reshuffle. Gets rid of several cabinet ministers and promotes plenty of fresh talent.

    3. We leave the EU in March 2019 and TM resigns sometime shortly afterwards.

    4. New Con leader (hopefully a fresh face) takes over by 2019 Con conference.

    5. Possible general election in Spring 2020.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    dyedwoolie said:

    The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

    It was reported on Newnight that the cladding used on Grenfell has only been used in a few other places and is not widely used.
  • kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    edited June 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    David Lammy:

    The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.

    Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.

    He's really not very bright. Tottenham deserves better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    David Lammy:

    The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.

    Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.

    He's a mastermind.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    AndyJS said:

    "I lost out on bank job because I ordered in English at an Italian restaurant, reveals Justine Greening as she launches new social mobility index"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4627286/Justine-Greening-lost-job-ordering-English.html


    What is Italian for chip on the shoulder?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    dyedwoolie said:

    The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

    Unfortunately although unsafe cladding needs to be removed I think that in many cases residents are being scared unnecessarily. A major contributing factor to the Grenfell disaster was the chimney effect caused by the way the cladding was fitted. Where the cladding has been fitted better, the fact that the cladding is not non-flammable is much less significant.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    David_Evershed said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

    It was reported on Newnight that the cladding used on Grenfell has only been used in a few other places and is not widely used.
    Which brings up s troubling point. Are other types of cladding being sent in for testing also combustible?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/877801585090281473
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    David Lammy:

    The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.

    Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.

    He's a mastermind.
    He's grieving for a friend, and has my full sympathy. Nevertheless May can't prejudice the investigation.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    dyedwoolie said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/877821404040843264

    Part of criminal investigation. She knows but can't say in case it prejudices any prosecution.
    How come Hammond could say it a few days ago?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    William_H said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/877821404040843264

    Part of criminal investigation. She knows but can't say in case it prejudices any prosecution.
    How come Hammond could say it a few days ago?
    He probably shouldn't have.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    kurtjester said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    David Lammy:

    The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.

    Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.

    He's really not very bright. Tottenham deserves better.
    I am convinced there must have been a mix up when he applied to harvard. There is probably some Dave lammies from London who got rejected who is a bloody genius.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    dyedwoolie said:

    David_Evershed said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

    It was reported on Newnight that the cladding used on Grenfell has only been used in a few other places and is not widely used.
    Which brings up s troubling point. Are other types of cladding being sent in for testing also combustible?
    There have also been issues with the way the testing is specified, so panels that pass the tests are not as safe as we might assume.

    See this example of the investigation into a recent fire here in Dubai:
    http://www.thenational.ae/business/property/revealed-how-the-address-downtown-dubai-hotel-fire-test-was-meaningless
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

    "UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

    Wrong type of immigrants ?
    No. Not enough immigrants. They're being put off from coming by Brexit.

    Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit, and wants clarity from govt so that eastern Europeans aren't put off now, and will be welcome in future.

    He also pointed out that only one Brit has worked for him in 5 years, and he only lasted one day.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Dadge said:

    Unfortunately although unsafe cladding needs to be removed I think that in many cases residents are being scared unnecessarily. A major contributing factor to the Grenfell disaster was the chimney effect caused by the way the cladding was fitted. Where the cladding has been fitted better, the fact that the cladding is not non-flammable is much less significant.

    We don't know that for sure yet. We also don't know if there were other contributory factors (for example, in addition to fire spreading via the cladding it might also have spread internally, if the fire-barriers between floors were defective).

    One helpful point is that it appears from the photos that the cladding remains in place unharmed on the lower part of the building, so they'll very easily be able to assess exactly how it was fitted.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Woolie, not just terrorists, but pyromaniacs.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    David_Evershed said:

    May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

    Corbyn's response back to his weak level.

    Corbyn: "I hope the prime minister will correct the mistakes of the former home secretary."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    David_Evershed said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The PMs admission that a number of tests have shown cladding to be combustible is the big news today. Thousands of people across the nation are about to become aware they are living in a potential death trap. This is a watershed moment, make no mistake.

    It was reported on Newnight that the cladding used on Grenfell has only been used in a few other places and is not widely used.
    Hope that's the case, although there is definitely an urgent need to look closely at all older high-rise buildings which have been re-clad.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,383
    glw said:

    isam said:

    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

    That can't be right, I thought that since the referendum vote Britain had become so horrible that nobody wanted to come here, and that Remainers were fleeing to safety. Hmmm.
    Looks like this lags the most recent immigration figures.

    Put most broadly, the reason is 50/50 between net working age immigration and baby boomers aging and filling out the population tree. Our population rises by about 3-4m over the next generation even without the former, but would be very top heavy on pensioners.

    The ideal net immigration numbers reduce that top heaviness in the short-term, but allow population to plateau and perhaps edge down slowly once baby boomers die off in greater numbers. The sweet spot for current net immigration is 100-150k per year, but obviously that would vary as the demographics develop.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    “At least 79 people are dead. It is both a tragedy and an outrage, because every single one of those deaths should and could have been avoided."

    He added: “From Hillsborough to the child sex abuse scandal to Grenfell Tower, the pattern is consistent. Working class people’s voices are ignored, their concerns dismissed by those in power.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Green seems a reasonable bet. Still 16 on BF. I have taken a nibble.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Dadge said:

    Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit

    As the old proverb puts it... "Be careful what you wish for - you might get it"

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    David_Evershed said:

    May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

    Corbyn's response back to his weak level.

    It is sad that MP's always have to try to politicise events rather than add constructive commentary to what is a very serious national matter
    Indeed, would the same questions be asked of the PM in response to something like a plane crash?

    There's a team of experienced people who are investigating this accident, we need to give them the resources to get their job done quickly and thoroughly before paying close attention to their reports. As much as everyone would like this to be done in a week, in the real world these things take time to do properly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Dadge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

    "UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

    Wrong type of immigrants ?
    No. Not enough immigrants. They're being put off from coming by Brexit.

    Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit, and wants clarity from govt so that eastern Europeans aren't put off now, and will be welcome in future.

    He also pointed out that only one Brit has worked for him in 5 years, and he only lasted one day.
    Has he recanted his sin yet and come over to the "2nd Referendum" brigade?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Since there has been so much criticism of Theresa May in recent days (not least from me), it's only fair to point out that she is actually very good in getting a grip in this kind of crisis. She might not have been great in the public display of empathy immediately after the tragedy, but when it comes to actually getting things moving to deal with the problem, she's thorough and shows leadership.

    Hopefuly she is now also getting over what must have been the hugely confidence-sapping shock of the election disaster.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    Listening to the debate on the PM's statement the Country must be in despair at the quality of opposition questions which are at times so seriously stupid it raises the question how the electorate could elect those who are simply not suited to public service.

    They demand answers that are simply impossible to provide without proper investigation
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "UK population sees sharpest rise in nearly 70 years"

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-06-22/uk-population-sees-sharpest-rise-in-70-years/
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Beverley_C said:

    Dadge said:

    Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit

    As the old proverb puts it... "Be careful what you wish for - you might get it"

    Does "making it difficult to recruit" mean "he doesn't want to pay locals proper wages"?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    "UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

    Wrong type of immigrants ?

    Worth reading all the responses to this

    https://twitter.com/zoeconway1/status/877801383281524736
  • kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    bigjohnowls said:

    “At least 79 people are dead. It is both a tragedy and an outrage, because every single one of those deaths should and could have been avoided."

    He added: “From Hillsborough to the child sex abuse scandal to Grenfell Tower, the pattern is consistent. Working class people’s voices are ignored, their concerns dismissed by those in power.

    Sex abuse largely ignored under a Labour government. As was Hillsborough.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Since there has been so much criticism of Theresa May in recent days (not least from me), it's only fair to point out that she is actually very good in getting a grip in this kind of crisis. She might not have been great in the public display of empathy immediately after the tragedy, but when it comes to actually getting things moving to deal with the problem, she's thorough and shows leadership.

    Hopefuly she is now also getting over what must have been the hugely confidence-sapping shock of the election disaster.

    Indeed. An issue with these Tory leadership bets is that we may have tied our money up for two, three or possible even more years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    Just wondering do students not do summer jobs these days? And if they do what do they do? Because when I was a student I did fruit and veg picking / packing and warehouse work every vacation and so did most of the people I knew.

    Although physically pretty tough it used to be quite good fun meeting lots of other young people.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    For the brave there is an 8% return available on BF for May being PM after QS vote i.e. forms a government after royal assent. 1.08 that it is May. 8% in a week is better than a bank account.

    If I had more money to 'risk' in betting scenarios I might be tempted on this one.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Dadge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Now why is there a housing crisis again?

    https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144

    "UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

    Wrong type of immigrants ?
    No. Not enough immigrants. They're being put off from coming by Brexit.

    Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit, and wants clarity from govt so that eastern Europeans aren't put off now, and will be welcome in future.

    He also pointed out that only one Brit has worked for him in 5 years, and he only lasted one day.

    If British consumers were prepared to pay higher prices, farmers could pay higher wages and would not be so dependent on cheap foreign labour. We're not, though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    I thought about backing Damian Green - and agree he's good - but changed my mind when he struggled to handle McDonnell when he went for him over being a director of a privatised water utility.

    Green was absolutely right (McDonnell doesn't know jack about the Bond markets) but he came over as too gentile and avuncular.

    Nice guy. Clever guy. Competent guy. Not enough grit.

    And he doesn't have hair.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Roger said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He's homoiousian at a time when the Conservatives will insist on a homoousian.

    You took the words out of my mouth......
    .... Oh it must have been while you were kissing me.
    You took the words right out of my mouth.
    And I swear it's true,
    I was just about to say I love you.

    - Jim Steinman / Meatloaf

    :D:D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    rottenborough said:

    For the brave there is an 8% return available on BF for May being PM after QS vote i.e. forms a government after royal assent. 1.08 that it is May. 8% in a week is better than a bank account.

    If I had more money to 'risk' in betting scenarios I might be tempted on this one.

    You're probably right, but lesson learned a fortnight ago about betting big at short odds on the Tory majority.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SouthamObserver said:

    If British consumers were prepared to pay higher prices, farmers could pay higher wages and would not be so dependent on cheap foreign labour. We're not, though.

    Apparently he pays above minimum wage, with free accommodation
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Dadge said:

    Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit

    As the old proverb puts it... "Be careful what you wish for - you might get it"

    Does "making it difficult to recruit" mean "he doesn't want to pay locals proper wages"?

    How much extra a week are you prepared to pay for your groceries to ensure British farmers employ British workers?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    edited June 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    All this stuff about hard/soft Brexit seems pointless to me now the DUP have confirmed they are in favour of leaving the single market and customs union and will be voting with the government?

    Even accounting for Con rebellions from the likes of Clarke and Soubry the government should still have the numbers for the Brexit they want (especially as you'll have a few people on the Labour side like Field and Hoey also voting with the government)

    Looks like we're leaving the single market and customs union. The only question is whether there's any transitional arrangements and if so how long they last.

    I think the DUP issue is that they are also committed to a "frictionless" border with the Republic of Ireland. If they have to choose between passport checks plus customs booths and single market/customs union, which way do they jump?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,005
    Pro_Rata said:

    The ideal net immigration numbers reduce that top heaviness in the short-term, but allow population to plateau and perhaps edge down slowly once baby boomers die off in greater numbers. The sweet spot for current net immigration is 100-150k per year, but obviously that would vary as the demographics develop.

    I've no idea what the right level of immigration is, but it is going to put a huge strain on national resources if our population hits 70 million next decade and is still rising at a similar rate. I don't think many politicians have grasped the scale of the issue, we need to build at least a Birmingham's worth of everything every couple of years just to stand still, if we want to make up the deficit that has accrued we might need to nearly double that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    David_Evershed said:

    May has given a confident and comprehensive statement on Grenfell this morning.

    Corbyn's response back to his weak level.

    She needs to seal a deal with the DUP, cobble together a new fiscal plan, and start to put Corbyn on the back foot.

    Then she'll be ok for another 22 months.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "UK summer fruit and salad growers are having difficulty recruiting pickers according to a BBC survey."

    Wrong type of immigrants ?

    Worth reading all the responses to this

    https://twitter.com/zoeconway1/status/877801383281524736
    Maybe people don't like working there.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Hopefuly she is now also getting over what must have been the hugely confidence-sapping shock of the election disaster.

    Yes, she's had to work through her seven stages of grief over that very quickly, and come up with an entirely different way of working and operating.

    She's not there yet (not by a long stretch) but she's starting to get a grip.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Scott_P said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If British consumers were prepared to pay higher prices, farmers could pay higher wages and would not be so dependent on cheap foreign labour. We're not, though.

    Apparently he pays above minimum wage, with free accommodation

    Is it full-time work, or seasonal?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Scott_P said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If British consumers were prepared to pay higher prices, farmers could pay higher wages and would not be so dependent on cheap foreign labour. We're not, though.

    Apparently he pays above minimum wage, with free accommodation
    Given that 40% of our 18-22 year olds are at university, what exactly do they now do all summer?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    SouthamObserver said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Dadge said:

    Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit

    As the old proverb puts it... "Be careful what you wish for - you might get it"

    Does "making it difficult to recruit" mean "he doesn't want to pay locals proper wages"?

    How much extra a week are you prepared to pay for your groceries to ensure British farmers employ British workers?

    And in turn, how much are people prepared to pay a week to ensure that immigrants doing menial jobs live in good quality social housing, with the necessary infrastructure?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If British consumers were prepared to pay higher prices, farmers could pay higher wages and would not be so dependent on cheap foreign labour. We're not, though.

    Apparently he pays above minimum wage, with free accommodation
    Given that 40% of our 18-22 year olds are at university, what exactly do they now do all summer?
    Go to festivals?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SouthamObserver said:

    Is it full-time work, or seasonal?

    Packing Strawberries?

    I am going to guess, seasonal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    All this stuff about hard/soft Brexit seems pointless to me now the DUP have confirmed they are in favour of leaving the single market and customs union and will be voting with the government?

    Even accounting for Con rebellions from the likes of Clarke and Soubry the government should still have the numbers for the Brexit they want (especially as you'll have a few people on the Labour side like Field and Hoey also voting with the government)

    Looks like we're leaving the single market and customs union. The only question is whether there's any transitional arrangements and if so how long they last.

    I think the DUP issue is that they are also committed to a "frictionless" border with the Republic of Ireland. If they have to choose between passport checks plus customs booths and single market/customs union, which way do they jump?

    Or customs checks on the UK mainland for flights and ships coming from NI - which is the easiest way to ensure a frictionless border between north and south.

This discussion has been closed.