politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the BREXIT negotiations start in Brussels LAB take 3% lead
Comments
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No, it was unattributable "supporters" who said it. Mrs May just said "strong and stable".CarlottaVance said:
No politician ever answers the 'have you stopped beating your wife' question......Media Training 101.......focus on what you want to say.....but the point is, she didn't say it, and condemned the terms.....IanB2 said:
Deniability is a wonderful thing. After the deed is done. She was repeatedly asked to condemn this appalling framing of the election at her final PMQs, and didn't.CarlottaVance said:
Theresa May has rejected the Daily Mail's framing of her call for an early election as a bid to "crush the saboteurs"......SouthamObserver said:
May framed the last election as a battle between patriots and saboteursalex. said:
This is rubbish IMO. The EU referendum result did not "create" a deeply divided country, it was the consequence of it. Just as easy to make a case for Brown. Or Blair. Or, of course, Thatcher. The divide in the country is between the haves and the have nots. And it all comes down to the insoluble problem that is the property market.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
Mrs May went on to condemn the Mail's coverage, saying it was "absolutely not" the description she would use for her critics.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-19/pm-rejects-daily-mails-saboteurs-election-headline-after-mcdonnell-criticises-nasty-coverage/0 -
This game. Plausible deniability. Let a story run and gain traction, then disown/deny it.CarlottaVance said:
Theresa May has rejected the Daily Mail's framing of her call for an early election as a bid to "crush the saboteurs"......SouthamObserver said:
May framed the last election as a battle between patriots and saboteursalex. said:
This is rubbish IMO. The EU referendum result did not "create" a deeply divided country, it was the consequence of it. Just as easy to make a case for Brown. Or Blair. Or, of course, Thatcher. The divide in the country is between the haves and the have nots. And it all comes down to the insoluble problem that is the property market.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
Mrs May went on to condemn the Mail's coverage, saying it was "absolutely not" the description she would use for her critics.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-19/pm-rejects-daily-mails-saboteurs-election-headline-after-mcdonnell-criticises-nasty-coverage/0 -
With the LibDems on 6%, there's no pressure from their 12 MPs for an early election. At least not until the new leader has been elected and had a play with the train set...0
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It's an OK poll for the Tories IMO - the news has been entirely negative for them, and this shows they have a strong core vote. The plurality opposing May stepping down will hlep her too. Labour might have hoped for a bigger bounce but obviously it's good to be ahead of the Government this soon.
And it's good in general to see the voters not reacting strongly to disasters - as we saw with the London and Manchester attacks, most people don't instantly look for someone to blame, unlike our dear media.
And, TSE, I like not just pineapple but also anchovies on my pizzas. Lots of them. Food snobs, they're the worst
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Labours election of Corbyn hasn't exactly helped matters either.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
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Potato is fine on a pizza, wafer thin slices, delicious.AlastairMeeks said:If it's ok for Italians to put potato on pizza (to be fair, it works surprisingly well), it's ok for me to put pineapple on pizza. I don't get the need to be purist about this.
Pineapple is not fine, now matter how thinly sliced.0 -
Does anyone believe Labour are on [insert% here].
We need Martin Kaboom Boon!!0 -
You make a good point. One of the things that appeals about Corbyn is that you know he'll never prostrate himself at the feet of Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre nor to the likes of Donald Trump Bibi Netanyahu or Salman al Saud. That in itself will be massively liberating for this country and one which which most thinking people will welcome.IanB2 said:
The gutter press's influence is gone.The_Apocalypse said:@DavidL No people haven't gone mad. Given how Labour did during the GE, how can anyone be shocked to see Labour polling above 40%? Labour supporters by and large are not taking what the right wing press say seriously anymore, and Corbyn comes across as fairly reasonable on TV and in the media generally especially to a voter who does not know about his past history and statements. Plus, the government is in chaos and many are discontented with the situation right now and Labour is a way for many to register that discontent.
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Sad to hear of the attack in Finsbury Park but fortunately it seems to have been contained before further loss of life beyond the man who died, though several still imjured0
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Haha.bigjohnowls said:Does anyone believe Labour are on [insert% here].
We need Martin Kaboom Boon!!
You remember the PB Tories laughing when Labour shown at 30% saying how implausible it was.0 -
If course a Corbyn premiership would really screw the country overJonathanD said:
Labours election of Corbyn hasn't exactly helped matters either.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
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Anchovies yes, but pineapple - yuck!NickPalmer said:It's an OK poll for the Tories IMO - the news has been entirely negative for them, and this shows they have a strong core vote. The plurality opposing May stepping down will hlep her too. Labour might have hoped for a bigger bounce but obviously it's good to be ahead of the Government this soon.
And it's good in general to see the voters not reacting strongly to disasters - as we saw with the London and Manchester attacks, most people don't instantly look for someone to blame, unlike our dear media.
And, TSE, I like not just pineapple but also anchovies on my pizzas. Lots of them. Food snobs, they're the worst0 -
With over 97% counted in the French parliamentary election the tally for the respective parties and allies :
LREM - 350 - Independent Orange Bookers
LR - 131 - Conservative/Sinn Fein Coalition ..
PS - 46 - Ed Stone/Green Alliance
LFI - 26 - Jezza/SWP Concordat
FN - 8 - Loony Faragist Whackjobs
Others 16 - Independent Liquorice Allsorts
LREM Maj 123
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Surprised at how high the Tories are tbh, thought we'd be down in the mid 30s and Labour surging.
There is hope for us yet if we can get rid of May.0 -
Pineapples on pizza is disgusting. Ugh....0
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+1Roger said:
You make a good point. One of the things that appeals about Corbyn is that you know he'll never prostrate himself at the feet of Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre nor to the likes of Donald Trump Bibi Netanyahu or Salman al Saud. That in itself will be massively liberating for this country and one which which most thinking people will welcome.IanB2 said:
The gutter press's influence is gone.The_Apocalypse said:@DavidL No people haven't gone mad. Given how Labour did during the GE, how can anyone be shocked to see Labour polling above 40%? Labour supporters by and large are not taking what the right wing press say seriously anymore, and Corbyn comes across as fairly reasonable on TV and in the media generally especially to a voter who does not know about his past history and statements. Plus, the government is in chaos and many are discontented with the situation right now and Labour is a way for many to register that discontent.
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I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
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By setting the terms for their support they have a portfolio without a ministry.CarlottaVance said:
How are they participating? Which ministerial posts will they fill?williamglenn said:
Is it the participation of the DUP in the UK government that makes you think the union is secure?Sean_F said:
You think leaving the EU is horrific. I think it's a good thing. A generation from now, we'll know which of us is right.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
At least the break up of the UK (a real prospect three years ago) looks to have been averted.0 -
Carry On Brexit it is.
https://twitter.com/ChristinaSNP/status/876690849895251968
'He' is Ian Duncan, newly ennobled SCon loser.0 -
That's the last thing I'd say. But after every event recently, the media have shown themselves to be irresponsible in their reporting.Bromptonaut said:
No, mustn't let these people have their say. That would never do.JosiasJessop said:
The BBC broadcast an interview with an eyewitness who made the same point, and claimed it took a long time for ambulances to get to the scene. Not a helpful interview to broadcast IMO.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-Islamic State channels are using reports of the incident in Finsbury Park to incite Muslims, according to groups which monitor jihadists.Blue_rog said:I do hope that any response to the anti islamic attack is proportionate and can't be perceived as 'biased'.
Irrespective, I'm sure some elements will try to portray it as such.
One pro-Isis post said “Oh Muslims you need to wake up the war starting on your own streets”. It also questioned why the police didn’t shoot dead the attacker.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/19/north-london-van-incident-finsbury-park-casualties-collides-pedestrians-live-updates
On the latter point, at a guess 'he'd already been apprehended, was not stabbing people and did not appear to be wearing a suicide vest'0 -
Intelligent maybe, he is just guessing though, until the terms of our deal are laid out any analysis is mainly entrenched guesswork. One thing for certain that get's ignored and why the referendum and result came to pass, we paid a lot into the EU and our influence from within was very limited. Cameron tried his very best to do something about that over several years and we know the result of that.Monksfield said:
Some of us do, and unlike many of those who seem to think British prosperity is just about waving flags harder, Southam has posted a great deal of intelligent analysis that backs his thinking up.currystar said:
Do you really believe this nonsense?SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
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I'm sure Labour will win if the election is in the next year for the reasons given by Southam Observer. The Tories have divided and diminished this country in a way that hasn't been seen for many decades. Michael Gove was on the radio this morning as Minister for the Environment. The desperation in reappointing him shows even the Tories know the game is up.bigjohnowls said:Does anyone believe Labour are on [insert% here].
We need Martin Kaboom Boon!!0 -
Can the government get the 2018 constituency boundary changes though before the next General Election?
They will help the Conservatives gain a majority but presumably the DUP aren't too happy with them as although they give Northern Ireland 2.88% of the new 600 member House of Commons as opposed to 2.77% at present, implied 2017 results see Sinn Fein gain 2 seats from DUP on the new boundaries.0 -
Here is a theory: this GE was the tipping point when "young people don't vote" became "young people used not to vote"; they have been pushed into it by a combination of the facts of the brutal unfairness of the system towards them (house prices and student loans) and this being the first election fought online rather than in traditional media. The young vote was got out by the "liar" song and the cassette boy montage of May. The cool thing about the cassette boy video was that it ended with a screen saying, not vote Corbyn, but simply VOTE.
Someone cleverer than me needs to look at turnout by age group in this and previous elections to see whether it is true.0 -
And very few people give a toss about their politicians.freetochoose said:
Deeply divided?SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
This place is getting ridiculous, 99% of the population go about their everyday lives without ever thinking about politics.
Some people's obsession with party politics is very worrying, it must be remembered that very few politicians give a toss about the people they represent.0 -
Roger you blow with the wind on political matters. Its hard to take anything seriouslyRoger said:
I'm sure Labour will win if the election is in the next year for the reasons given by Southam Observer. The Tories have divided and diminished this country in a way that hasn't been seen for many decades. Michael Gove was on the radio this morning as Minister for the Environment. The desperation in reappointing him shows even the Tories know the game is up.bigjohnowls said:Does anyone believe Labour are on [insert% here].
We need Martin Kaboom Boon!!0 -
In-depth analysis of the event has still to take place before a level of outrage is decided upon.nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/876704042772291584
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Just seen about the latest terrorist attack (fourth this year?). Bit more concerning/disturbing/depressing news to add to the pile.
Hope nobody else dies.0 -
There also haven't been the usual pathetic comments like 'I bet his name was Dave', etc, etc.nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
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Yes, fair enough, though personally I don't think Muslims in general need to take a view on ISIS (the official bodies like MCB do), any more than on North Korea - default, backed up by polling, is to assume they think they're bonkers as everyone else does.nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
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He will though to MacKluskey, Prentice and their scouse union cabals, who are potentially far more dangerous day to day for millions of Brits, than those you list. Most thinking people would not welcome that, especially if the conduct during the last Unite elections were more widely known. Another fail in the recent Conservative campaign.murali_s said:
+1Roger said:
You make a good point. One of the things that appeals about Corbyn is that you know he'll never prostrate himself at the feet of Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre nor to the likes of Donald Trump Bibi Netanyahu or Salman al Saud. That in itself will be massively liberating for this country and one which which most thinking people will welcome.IanB2 said:
The gutter press's influence is gone.The_Apocalypse said:@DavidL No people haven't gone mad. Given how Labour did during the GE, how can anyone be shocked to see Labour polling above 40%? Labour supporters by and large are not taking what the right wing press say seriously anymore, and Corbyn comes across as fairly reasonable on TV and in the media generally especially to a voter who does not know about his past history and statements. Plus, the government is in chaos and many are discontented with the situation right now and Labour is a way for many to register that discontent.
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+1Monksfield said:
Some of us do, and unlike many of those who seem to think British prosperity is just about waving flags harder, Southam has posted a great deal of intelligent analysis that backs his thinking up.currystar said:
Do you really believe this nonsense?SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
The sad truth is that we have become mostly a source of mirth for the ROW. Or bafflement on a good day.0 -
Is this a different type of Survation poll to the one which had Lab 6pts ahead of the Tories, 3 days after the election?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-lead-theresa-may-conservatives-tories-survation-poll-general-election-a7784171.html
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Had anyone heard from @Gallowgate?
On some kind of topic, it is easy to say that the Cons effed it up with the referendum. But I have a huge problem with people who have a problem with democracy. The EU was a boil that needed lancing and there were at least 4m people who wanted an opportunity to have a say on the matter and who were effectively disenfranchised.
Of course it was the wrong result but that is the public's fault, not the guys who built the ballot boxes.0 -
But I thought that that the French parliament has no power - all is supposed to be decided in Brussels.JackW said:With over 97% counted in the French parliamentary election the tally for the respective parties and allies :
LREM - 350 - Independent Orange Bookers
LR - 131 - Conservative/Sinn Fein Coalition ..
PS - 46 - Ed Stone/Green Alliance
LFI - 26 - Jezza/SWP Concordat
FN - 8 - Loony Faragist Whackjobs
Others 16 - Independent Liquorice Allsorts
LREM Maj 123
How was your BBQ? Did you marinade the Focus deliverer before kebabing?0 -
That's an online poll. This is a phone poll.tim80 said:Is this a different type of Survation poll to the one which had Lab 6pts ahead of the Tories, 3 days after the election?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-lead-theresa-may-conservatives-tories-survation-poll-general-election-a7784171.html0 -
Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.0 -
It's out of their hands. If all opposition votes them down on confidence they are gone.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.0 -
Correct.Essexit said:
And very few people give a toss about their politicians.freetochoose said:
Deeply divided?SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
This place is getting ridiculous, 99% of the population go about their everyday lives without ever thinking about politics.
Some people's obsession with party politics is very worrying, it must be remembered that very few politicians give a toss about the people they represent.
To say the country is "deeply divided" is pure nonsense, they're more concerned about the weather.0 -
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.0 -
Since when has the opposition been able to call an election?dyedwoolie said:
It's out of their hands. If all opposition votes them down on confidence they are gone.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.0 -
Presumably, though, Survation are confident of their methodology for both.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's an online poll. This is a phone poll.tim80 said:Is this a different type of Survation poll to the one which had Lab 6pts ahead of the Tories, 3 days after the election?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-lead-theresa-may-conservatives-tories-survation-poll-general-election-a7784171.html0 -
Correct, but they won't call an election and commit suicide.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.0 -
I don't think we really have the luxury of looking at the question in such philosophical terms. In the current atmosphere - not taking a stance is percieved as acquiescence.NickPalmer said:
Yes, fair enough, though personally I don't think Muslims in general need to take a view on ISIS (the official bodies like MCB do), any more than on North Korea - default, backed up by polling, is to assume they think they're bonkers as everyone else does.nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
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Lol @ "increasingly". We are still waiting to hear from the new Tory MP for Bolsover?freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.0 -
Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
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I believe so.alex. said:
Presumably, though, Survation are confident of their methodology for both.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's an online poll. This is a phone poll.tim80 said:Is this a different type of Survation poll to the one which had Lab 6pts ahead of the Tories, 3 days after the election?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-lead-theresa-may-conservatives-tories-survation-poll-general-election-a7784171.html0 -
And giving voice to people whose friends and relatives have been grievously attacked is irresponsible, is it? Perhaps it would be better to record their views and only broadcast them if they pass some kind of test.JosiasJessop said:
That's the last thing I'd say. But after every event recently, the media have shown themselves to be irresponsible in their reporting.Bromptonaut said:
No, mustn't let these people have their say. That would never do.JosiasJessop said:
The BBC broadcast an interview with an eyewitness who made the same point, and claimed it took a long time for ambulances to get to the scene. Not a helpful interview to broadcast IMO.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-Islamic State channels are using reports of the incident in Finsbury Park to incite Muslims, according to groups which monitor jihadists.Blue_rog said:I do hope that any response to the anti islamic attack is proportionate and can't be perceived as 'biased'.
Irrespective, I'm sure some elements will try to portray it as such.
One pro-Isis post said “Oh Muslims you need to wake up the war starting on your own streets”. It also questioned why the police didn’t shoot dead the attacker.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/19/north-london-van-incident-finsbury-park-casualties-collides-pedestrians-live-updates
On the latter point, at a guess 'he'd already been apprehended, was not stabbing people and did not appear to be wearing a suicide vest'0 -
She won't lead us into another election, for sure.MaxPB said:Surprised at how high the Tories are tbh, thought we'd be down in the mid 30s and Labour surging.
There is hope for us yet if we can get rid of May.
Keep her around till Brexit has happened, find a new leader, honeymoon period, intervene in housing market, witness 2020 Tory surge....0 -
The boundary changes probably will not happen. They will create a lot of work and upset a lot of incumbents for no real gain. The idea that the old boundaries are unfair to Conservatives was always spurious as was discussed here at the time -- the perceived bias was mainly due to differential turnout in safe seats. The fuss about Scotland and Wales was also OTT now that the Conservatives have rediscovered how to win seats in those countries.DeClare said:Can the government get the 2018 constituency boundary changes though before the next General Election?
They will help the Conservatives gain a majority but presumably the DUP aren't too happy with them as although they give Northern Ireland 2.88% of the new 600 member House of Commons as opposed to 2.77% at present, implied 2017 results see Sinn Fein gain 2 seats from DUP on the new boundaries.0 -
North Islington is fortunate to be represented by a member of parliament who has never shown any sympathy for terror killers.NickPalmer said:
Yes, fair enough, though personally I don't think Muslims in general need to take a view on ISIS (the official bodies like MCB do), any more than on North Korea - default, backed up by polling, is to assume they think they're bonkers as everyone else does.nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
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This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May
Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks 0 -
Before the Referendum no one apart from a few fruitcakes gave the EU even a passing thought. It ranked somewhere below enviroment as a concern. After the Referendum it moved to top spot. What's more before the Referendum there were no losers. Now there are 17,000,000. A large percentage of whom are very angry.alex. said:
This is rubbish IMO. The EU referendum result did not "create" a deeply divided country, it was the consequence of it. Just as easy to make a case for Brown. Or Blair. Or, of course, Thatcher. The divide in the country is between the haves and the have nots. And it all comes down to the insoluble problem that is the property market.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
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In theory, but almost certainly not in practice. It isn't as much in their favour, anyway, as before.DeClare said:Can the government get the 2018 constituency boundary changes though before the next General Election?
They will help the Conservatives gain a majority but presumably the DUP aren't too happy with them as although they give Northern Ireland 2.88% of the new 600 member House of Commons as opposed to 2.77% at present, implied 2017 results see Sinn Fein gain 2 seats from DUP on the new boundaries.0 -
Defections? Are you seriously suggesting a tory will join Corbyn's labour?DeClare said:
Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
See what I mean about people WANTING things to happen.0 -
F1: slightly interesting gossip, Sainz appears to have effectively made a pitch for Ricciardo's seat. The Spaniard's a good driver (cocking up and costing my a bet last time out notwithstanding) but Toro Rosso tends to chuck drivers out after a few years and he needs to find a new seat.
Bottas is driving pretty well for Mercedes, but that seat may yet be open. Raikkonen at Ferrari is another potential vacancy. Renault's likely to kick out Palmer. If Perez is successfully headhunted by Renault then Sainz could go to the Pink Panthers.0 -
Shouldn't we be suspending politics for several days?nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
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Hilarious!!Roger said:
Before the Referendum no one apart from a few fruitcakes gave the EU even a passing thought. It ranked somewhere below enviroment as a concern. After the Referendum it moved to top spot. What's more before the Referendum there were no losers. Now there are 17,000,000. A large percentage of whom are very angry.alex. said:
This is rubbish IMO. The EU referendum result did not "create" a deeply divided country, it was the consequence of it. Just as easy to make a case for Brown. Or Blair. Or, of course, Thatcher. The divide in the country is between the haves and the have nots. And it all comes down to the insoluble problem that is the property market.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
0 -
Well the government falls if it fails a confidence vote and if no other government can command a vote of confidence within 14 days an election then happens. Therefore, as a plurality but not a majority, it's not in the Tories hands, they are reliant on other party support or abstention.freetochoose said:
Since when has the opposition been able to call an election?dyedwoolie said:
It's out of their hands. If all opposition votes them down on confidence they are gone.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
That's the reality. Likelihood doesn't come into it.0 -
The really odd thing about Survation is that responders to both its phone and online surveys appear to be much more accurate about stating the chances of them voting compared with other pollsters.
Quite why this is the case is hard to ascertain. I've looked at the detailed questions and there is nothing that different from what other firms do.0 -
Yes I think that is the point. The Cons euroloons will prefer to blow the party up in the spirit of their cause. Always have, likely always will; won't take yes for an answer.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.0 -
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.0 -
I'm quite traumatized by the BBQ !! .... I'm sure Mrs JackW planned the whole affair to indicate what a future Jezza government would look like :Icarus said:
But I thought that that the French parliament has no power - all is supposed to be decided in Brussels.JackW said:With over 97% counted in the French parliamentary election the tally for the respective parties and allies :
LREM - 350 - Independent Orange Bookers
LR - 131 - Conservative/Sinn Fein Coalition ..
PS - 46 - Ed Stone/Green Alliance
LFI - 26 - Jezza/SWP Concordat
FN - 8 - Loony Faragist Whackjobs
Others 16 - Independent Liquorice Allsorts
LREM Maj 123
How was your BBQ? Did you marinade the Focus deliverer before kebabing?
The young full of power (and drink) .. someone else paying for the goodies and the old looking on in horror as the place goes to hell in a handcart ..
The funniest moment was when I introduced myself to an 18 year old young woman with piercings and more metal on display than the local ironmonger. She replied :
"Don't you recognize me I'm Mary* ..... " ..... * name changed to protect the guilty.
"Of course" I replied (lie) ... last time I saw her about 5 years ago she was a sweet unaffected little girl happily riding a pony. Yesterday afternoon she'd probably have slit the animals throat and flung it on the hot coals !!
I asked her if she knew any middle aged London authors. She didn't ..... luckily .... for SeanT !!0 -
The Brexit negotiations are going to be in the public domain and will at different times piss off the extremists of both wings in the Tory party. It wouldn't take much for one or more of the nuttier ones who are not expecting to get back next time to join the Lib Dems or UKIP.freetochoose said:
Defections? Are you seriously suggesting a tory will join Corbyn's labour?DeClare said:
Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
See what I mean about people WANTING things to happen.0 -
Apart from the millions who have been negatively affected by the wage erosion and job insecurity caused by mass immigration. And the tens of millions who have been impacted by the breakdown of the social contract between employers and education in this country.Roger said:
Before the Referendum no one apart from a few fruitcakes gave the EU even a passing thought. It ranked somewhere below enviroment as a concern. After the Referendum it moved to top spot. What's more before the Referendum there were no losers. Now there are 17,000,000. A large percentage of whom are very angry.alex. said:
This is rubbish IMO. The EU referendum result did not "create" a deeply divided country, it was the consequence of it. Just as easy to make a case for Brown. Or Blair. Or, of course, Thatcher. The divide in the country is between the haves and the have nots. And it all comes down to the insoluble problem that is the property market.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
Yeh, apart from those, no losers at all.
0 -
SCOTTISH SUN SAYS It’s quite clear Nicola Sturgeon hasn’t got a clue what she’s doing now with IndyRef2 after election ‘win’
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1165267/nicola-sturgeon-indyref2-election-win/0 -
Long game, 11 year revenge on Cameron.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.0 -
Implied results give Tories 298 seats, two short of a majority but in practice a majority of five as Sinn Fein are absent, by then, they could also say it's someone else's turn to be speaker.IanB2 said:
In theory, but almost certainly not in practice. It isn't as much in their favour, anyway, as before.DeClare said:Can the government get the 2018 constituency boundary changes though before the next General Election?
They will help the Conservatives gain a majority but presumably the DUP aren't too happy with them as although they give Northern Ireland 2.88% of the new 600 member House of Commons as opposed to 2.77% at present, implied 2017 results see Sinn Fein gain 2 seats from DUP on the new boundaries.0 -
It's a batshit mental suggestion. Theresa May is Prime Minister. The replacement has to be someone ready to serve on day one, especially since the electorate is not being consulted in the matter. Graham Brady has zero ministerial experience. Zilch. Nada. He's unknown by the general public and his sole qualification is that he's seen as "sound" on Brexit.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.
Only the most demented of Leavers could even contemplate installing such a choice. He'd be a 21st century Incitatus.0 -
Mr. Smithson, if the answers are more accurate but the questions are the same, surely that means the defining factor is a better pool of respondents?0
-
FPT
According to the World Bank we are the 5th largest economy in the world.Gallowgate said:
Source?malcolmg said:
Bit behind the times, we are down to 8th and on a downward trajectory, can Tories not just tell the truth.HYUFD said:
Except the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world not the 50th largest economy like Greece. It is though possible we may be in for the same round of elections, in 2012 there were two general elections in Greece which the conservative National Democracy narrowly won, in 2015 there were two general elections which the populist leftwing Syriza won and now the latest polls have National Democracy back in front in the polls againwilliamglenn said:
We're heading in a Greek trap, revolving government and all. The UK is facing a much more severe humiliation than Suez.FF43 said:I have to say I am getting seriously worried. They are all posturing on Brexit - Johnson, Davis and now the supposedly sensible one, Philip Hammond. On the Labour side you have Corbyn and Macdonnell who make it clear Brexit is just a bargaining chip for their advantage. Only Kier Starmer appears to be concerned about getting a decent Brexit arrangement, and no-one is paying HIM any attention.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/03/31/the-european-union-lays-out-a-greek-trap-for-the-united-kingdom/
According to the IMF we are the 9th largest economy in the world.
The difference between the two is that the World Bank use current exchange rates to convert each country's GDP to US Dollars whereas the IMF use PPP (purchasing power parity - in essence, how much stuff can you buy with this money).
Malcolm is completely wrong to say we are on a downward trajectory. I would imagine he thinks we have slipped from 5th to 9th. We haven't. In fact we are on an upwards trajectory. On World Bank figures we were the 6th largest economy in the world in 2010 and slipped to 7th in 2011 but are now the 5th largest. On IMF figures we were 9th from 2010 to the present.0 -
I have a feeling McKinsey's final bill will be significantly higher.
https://twitter.com/lucymcnulty/status/8767071880766300160 -
Nice, balanced and insulting as ever on Brexit related matters, I see.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a batshit mental suggestion. Theresa May is Prime Minister. The replacement has to be someone ready to serve on day one, especially since the electorate is not being consulted in the matter. Graham Brady has zero ministerial experience. Zilch. Nada. He's unknown by the general public and his sole qualification is that he's seen as "sound" on Brexit.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.
Only the most demented of Leavers could even contemplate installing such a choice. He'd be a 21st century Incitatus.
0 -
As someone has been arrested (as opposed to shot dead or blown himself up) then there will be a trial and there is a danger of saying something sub judice.nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
May I add my condolences to those who have friends or family who have been killed or injured.
0 -
When you say "current", which year is that ? 2017, 2016, 2015 ?prh47bridge said:FPT
According to the World Bank we are the 5th largest economy in the world.Gallowgate said:
Source?malcolmg said:
Bit behind the times, we are down to 8th and on a downward trajectory, can Tories not just tell the truth.HYUFD said:
Except the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world not the 50th largest economy like Greece. It is though possible we may be in for the same round of elections, in 2012 there were two general elections in Greece which the conservative National Democracy narrowly won, in 2015 there were two general elections which the populist leftwing Syriza won and now the latest polls have National Democracy back in front in the polls againwilliamglenn said:
We're heading in a Greek trap, revolving government and all. The UK is facing a much more severe humiliation than Suez.FF43 said:I have to say I am getting seriously worried. They are all posturing on Brexit - Johnson, Davis and now the supposedly sensible one, Philip Hammond. On the Labour side you have Corbyn and Macdonnell who make it clear Brexit is just a bargaining chip for their advantage. Only Kier Starmer appears to be concerned about getting a decent Brexit arrangement, and no-one is paying HIM any attention.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/03/31/the-european-union-lays-out-a-greek-trap-for-the-united-kingdom/
According to the IMF we are the 9th largest economy in the world.
The difference between the two is that the World Bank use current exchange rates to convert each country's GDP to US Dollars whereas the IMF use PPP (purchasing power parity - in essence, how much stuff can you buy with this money).
Malcolm is completely wrong to say we are on a downward trajectory. I would imagine he thinks we have slipped from 5th to 9th. We haven't. In fact we are on an upwards trajectory. On World Bank figures we were the 6th largest economy in the world in 2010 and slipped to 7th in 2011 but are now the 5th largest. On IMF figures we were 9th from 2010 to the present.0 -
If you're going to put forward bizarre suggestions, they're going to be treated with the ridicule they deserve.Mortimer said:
Nice, balanced and insulting as ever on Brexit related matters, I see.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a batshit mental suggestion. Theresa May is Prime Minister. The replacement has to be someone ready to serve on day one, especially since the electorate is not being consulted in the matter. Graham Brady has zero ministerial experience. Zilch. Nada. He's unknown by the general public and his sole qualification is that he's seen as "sound" on Brexit.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.
Only the most demented of Leavers could even contemplate installing such a choice. He'd be a 21st century Incitatus.0 -
What if say half a dozen pro-EU MPs on Labour's right wing get fed up with Corbyn and form a new party?freetochoose said:
Defections? Are you seriously suggesting a tory will join Corbyn's labour?DeClare said:
Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
See what I mean about people WANTING things to happen.
If we aren't getting a deal from the EU and on course to leave without one, one or two fanatical Tory remaindermen might be tempted to join them.0 -
Yes, as I said, the advantage in terms of political balance is significantly less than it has been assessed previously. Plus there are fewer MPs overall, which means some Tories losing their seats. And some seats get abolished or signficantly messed about, which means Tories having to carpetbag their way in somewhere else. And the major changes to the majority of seats would force a widescale reorganisation of local party structures. Finally, the so-called end of austerity and the probable end of the MEPs kills the original imperative for reducing the Commons.DeClare said:
Implied results give Tories 298 seats, two short of a majority but in practice a majority of five as Sinn Fein are absent, by then, they could also say it's someone else's turn to be speaker.IanB2 said:
In theory, but almost certainly not in practice. It isn't as much in their favour, anyway, as before.DeClare said:Can the government get the 2018 constituency boundary changes though before the next General Election?
They will help the Conservatives gain a majority but presumably the DUP aren't too happy with them as although they give Northern Ireland 2.88% of the new 600 member House of Commons as opposed to 2.77% at present, implied 2017 results see Sinn Fein gain 2 seats from DUP on the new boundaries.
In the round, there is nothing in it for the Tories any more. And even if collectively they try and proceed, the chance of some rebels joining the opposition to vote it down are high.
I suspect the Commission will be asked to start again, aiming at 650 for completion by 2020 using latest data and more sensible criteria.0 -
It's the way they select their sample, Mike. I read a detailed write-up on this on their website once.MikeSmithson said:The really odd thing about Survation is that responders to both its phone and online surveys appear to be much more accurate about stating the chances of them voting compared with other pollsters.
Quite why this is the case is hard to ascertain. I've looked at the detailed questions and there is nothing that different from what other firms do.0 -
Soubry for LibDem leader?DeClare said:
What if say half a dozen pro-EU MPs on Labour's right wing get fed up with Corbyn and form a new party?freetochoose said:
Defections? Are you seriously suggesting a tory will join Corbyn's labour?DeClare said:
Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
See what I mean about people WANTING things to happen.
If we aren't getting a deal from the EU and on course to leave without one, one or two fanatical Tory remaindermen might be tempted to join them.
0 -
Another government contract handed to American consultancies. Leaving aside the question of why the civil service cannot cope, does anyone imagine President Trump will be employing British management consultants any time soon?williamglenn said:I have a feeling McKinsey's final bill will be significantly higher.
https://twitter.com/lucymcnulty/status/8767071880766300160 -
Can you let us all know an ETA for when the Brexit Blinkers come off? It's all getting rather tiresome.AlastairMeeks said:
If you're going to put forward bizarre suggestions, they're going to be treated with the ridicule they deserve.Mortimer said:
Nice, balanced and insulting as ever on Brexit related matters, I see.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a batshit mental suggestion. Theresa May is Prime Minister. The replacement has to be someone ready to serve on day one, especially since the electorate is not being consulted in the matter. Graham Brady has zero ministerial experience. Zilch. Nada. He's unknown by the general public and his sole qualification is that he's seen as "sound" on Brexit.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.
Only the most demented of Leavers could even contemplate installing such a choice. He'd be a 21st century Incitatus.
0 -
Says the man who thinks that Graham Brady for next Prime Minister is a good idea.Mortimer said:
Can you let us all know an ETA for when the Brexit Blinkers come off? It's all getting rather tiresome.AlastairMeeks said:
If you're going to put forward bizarre suggestions, they're going to be treated with the ridicule they deserve.Mortimer said:
Nice, balanced and insulting as ever on Brexit related matters, I see.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a batshit mental suggestion. Theresa May is Prime Minister. The replacement has to be someone ready to serve on day one, especially since the electorate is not being consulted in the matter. Graham Brady has zero ministerial experience. Zilch. Nada. He's unknown by the general public and his sole qualification is that he's seen as "sound" on Brexit.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.
Only the most demented of Leavers could even contemplate installing such a choice. He'd be a 21st century Incitatus.0 -
UKIP? Now I've heard it all.Icarus said:
The Brexit negotiations are going to be in the public domain and will at different times piss off the extremists of both wings in the Tory party. It wouldn't take much for one or more of the nuttier ones who are not expecting to get back next time to join the Lib Dems or UKIP.freetochoose said:
Defections? Are you seriously suggesting a tory will join Corbyn's labour?DeClare said:
Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
See what I mean about people WANTING things to happen.0 -
Yes, it can be. You're perfectly free to differ, but IMO the interview on BBC One just after six (I think!) was unhelpful.Bromptonaut said:
And giving voice to people whose friends and relatives have been grievously attacked is irresponsible, is it? Perhaps it would be better to record their views and only broadcast them if they pass some kind of test.JosiasJessop said:
That's the last thing I'd say. But after every event recently, the media have shown themselves to be irresponsible in their reporting.Bromptonaut said:
No, mustn't let these people have their say. That would never do.JosiasJessop said:
The BBC broadcast an interview with an eyewitness who made the same point, and claimed it took a long time for ambulances to get to the scene. Not a helpful interview to broadcast IMO.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-Islamic State channels are using reports of the incident in Finsbury Park to incite Muslims, according to groups which monitor jihadists.Blue_rog said:I do hope that any response to the anti islamic attack is proportionate and can't be perceived as 'biased'.
Irrespective, I'm sure some elements will try to portray it as such.
One pro-Isis post said “Oh Muslims you need to wake up the war starting on your own streets”. It also questioned why the police didn’t shoot dead the attacker.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/19/north-london-van-incident-finsbury-park-casualties-collides-pedestrians-live-updates
On the latter point, at a guess 'he'd already been apprehended, was not stabbing people and did not appear to be wearing a suicide vest'0 -
History seems not to be your strongest point, Mr DeClare. The Lib Lab Pact did not "collapse". It came to an end, by agreement, so that the Liberals would have six months clear of entanglement before the general election. It was a very sensible arrangement.DeClare said:Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.
John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
But your main point is valid - even though there is a greater chance of the Conservative Party splitting.0 -
Brexit is just as much of a high-wire act as Theresa May's performance as PM. Remember when you thought she spoke for England and reached the parts the posh boys couldn't?Mortimer said:
Can you let us all know an ETA for when the Brexit Blinkers come off? It's all getting rather tiresome.AlastairMeeks said:
If you're going to put forward bizarre suggestions, they're going to be treated with the ridicule they deserve.Mortimer said:
Nice, balanced and insulting as ever on Brexit related matters, I see.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a batshit mental suggestion. Theresa May is Prime Minister. The replacement has to be someone ready to serve on day one, especially since the electorate is not being consulted in the matter. Graham Brady has zero ministerial experience. Zilch. Nada. He's unknown by the general public and his sole qualification is that he's seen as "sound" on Brexit.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.
Only the most demented of Leavers could even contemplate installing such a choice. He'd be a 21st century Incitatus.0 -
If May can survive 6 months, she can survive longer. Why should she be the sacrificial lamb ?Mortimer said:
She won't lead us into another election, for sure.MaxPB said:Surprised at how high the Tories are tbh, thought we'd be down in the mid 30s and Labour surging.
There is hope for us yet if we can get rid of May.
Keep her around till Brexit has happened, find a new leader, honeymoon period, intervene in housing market, witness 2020 Tory surge....0 -
It will turn out to be a guy with mental problems with a nice normal name like "Freedom for Britian, Death to Traitors"nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
Nothing to worry about.0 -
We were in so much better shape under Gordon Brown, I agree.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
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Urm, go and look at the vote shares...williamglenn said:
Brexit is just as much of a high-wire act as Theresa May's performance as PM. Remember when you thought she spoke for England and reached the parts the posh boys couldn't?Mortimer said:
Can you let us all know an ETA for when the Brexit Blinkers come off? It's all getting rather tiresome.AlastairMeeks said:
If you're going to put forward bizarre suggestions, they're going to be treated with the ridicule they deserve.Mortimer said:
Nice, balanced and insulting as ever on Brexit related matters, I see.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a batshit mental suggestion. Theresa May is Prime Minister. The replacement has to be someone ready to serve on day one, especially since the electorate is not being consulted in the matter. Graham Brady has zero ministerial experience. Zilch. Nada. He's unknown by the general public and his sole qualification is that he's seen as "sound" on Brexit.Mortimer said:
It is not as left field as you think.The_Apocalypse said:
This also has a lot of truth in it.logical_song said:
Reality is that the Tories are in a minority and some of their MPs care more about the EU than governing. As May or whoever has to make decisions the cracks will appear.freetochoose said:Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.
On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.
Look at Oakshott and Ashcroft bigging up Graham Brady as a successor to May Only someone obsessed with the EU would even suggest that. There are far too many with their mindset in Conservative ranks
Brady is hugely respected amongst the electorate for Tory leadership battles - I.e. Tory MPs.
He is also a communicator. Better than 75% of the cabinet.
I don't think he is interested in the job, mind.
Only the most demented of Leavers could even contemplate installing such a choice. He'd be a 21st century Incitatus.0 -
Boris & Gove."Once more unto the breach, dear friends ,once more ,". What they have done and are doing, is it really in the best interests of this country , or their own ego and importance.?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Not sure about that. Rather than a religious motive it may be more nationalistic where this guy feels that islam is attacking his country and people. Not mentally ill, just very very pissed off. Should be chucked away for life - 25 year with parole after 12.5 grrrAlistair said:
It will turn out to be a guy with mental problems with a nice normal name like "Freedom for Britian, Death to Traitors"nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
Nothing to worry about.0 -
Perfect result for france at this time. As we watch the stumbling back stabbing opportunists who are ruling the UK at the moment we should be very jealous.JackW said:With over 97% counted in the French parliamentary election the tally for the respective parties and allies :
LREM - 350 - Independent Orange Bookers
LR - 131 - Conservative/Sinn Fein Coalition ..
PS - 46 - Ed Stone/Green Alliance
LFI - 26 - Jezza/SWP Concordat
FN - 8 - Loony Faragist Whackjobs
Others 16 - Independent Liquorice Allsorts
LREM Maj 1230 -
Thank goodness that's the reason. I was beginning to worry it might be something else.SandraM said:
As someone has been arrested (as opposed to shot dead or blown himself up) then there will be a trial and there is a danger of saying something sub judice.nielh said:I don't see much concern on here about the Finsbury Park incident. Not saying that the PB comments section is particularly important in the scheme of things, but if we expect 'moderate muslims' to disown ISIS etc, then non muslims need to be equally outraged by acts like these.
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Because she didn't get the 100+ majority she called the election for?surbiton said:
If May can survive 6 months, she can survive longer. Why should she be the sacrificial lamb ?Mortimer said:
She won't lead us into another election, for sure.MaxPB said:Surprised at how high the Tories are tbh, thought we'd be down in the mid 30s and Labour surging.
There is hope for us yet if we can get rid of May.
Keep her around till Brexit has happened, find a new leader, honeymoon period, intervene in housing market, witness 2020 Tory surge....0 -
There is a German relative of the pizza that is served in Cologne. It is called, I think, a Koelsch pizza and the entire base is mashed potato instead of bread.AlastairMeeks said:If it's ok for Italians to put potato on pizza (to be fair, it works surprisingly well), it's ok for me to put pineapple on pizza. I don't get the need to be purist about this.
Probably only the Germans could a/ do this and b/ still consider it a pizza.0 -
Do they use pineapple as a topping?Alice_Aforethought said:
There is a German relative of the pizza that is served in Cologne. It is called, I think, a Koelsch pizza and the entire base is mashed potato instead of bread.AlastairMeeks said:If it's ok for Italians to put potato on pizza (to be fair, it works surprisingly well), it's ok for me to put pineapple on pizza. I don't get the need to be purist about this.
Probably only the Germans could a/ do this and b/ still consider it a pizza.0 -
You have no evidence whatsoever that wage erosion has been caused by immigration. Flight of jobs abroad has been a factor though, a consequence of the globalisation for which the Tories are big enthusiasts. Furthermore I can state categorically that my own wage erosion has been caused by your austerity programme.Mortimer said:
Apart from the millions who have been negatively affected by the wage erosion and job insecurity caused by mass immigration. And the tens of millions who have been impacted by the breakdown of the social contract between employers and education in this country.Roger said:
Before the Referendum no one apart from a few fruitcakes gave the EU even a passing thought. It ranked somewhere below enviroment as a concern. After the Referendum it moved to top spot. What's more before the Referendum there were no losers. Now there are 17,000,000. A large percentage of whom are very angry.alex. said:
This is rubbish IMO. The EU referendum result did not "create" a deeply divided country, it was the consequence of it. Just as easy to make a case for Brown. Or Blair. Or, of course, Thatcher. The divide in the country is between the haves and the have nots. And it all comes down to the insoluble problem that is the property market.SouthamObserver said:A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.
Yeh, apart from those, no losers at all.0
