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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the BREXIT negotiations start in Brussels LAB take 3% lead

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  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    calum said:
    Stormont is a very impressive building. I used to roller skate in from of it, it seemed totally unused at the time.
    My great-grandfather was a groundsman at Stormont for many years.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    edited June 2017

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries
    Only for a transitional period. And let's not forget that they took over responsibility for the first post-communist country to join the EU lock, stock and barrel.
    Well, 7 years! In that time UKIP went from 1% to 13% in the polls

    "In Germany, Austria, France and Italy, months of public debate led to the imposition of transitional controls, largely because of fears over job displacement, and in turn pressure from trade unions. Despite the early rhetoric of embracing free movement from these “old states”, at the eleventh hour, 12 out of 15 of them imposed restrictions to varying degrees, with Germany and Austria imposing the maximum seven-year period. This meant that citizens of the new member states had to wait until 2011 until they could freely work in Germany and Austria."

    http://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    Yep and I've told you why. Public sector wages are stagnant because we don't have the money to pay them - its called debt. Check out PFI and other repayments.

    And in the private sector, well most of it, there is an inexhaustable supply of cheap labour which keeps wages down.

    And unlike you I don't differentiate between EU and non EU immigration, I want a fair chance for all, but I want us to import the people we need not those who need us.

    We should copy the Singapore model.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. 43, it's a mystery why there's so much division in the country when more than half the voters are being compared to pro-slavery people from the 19th century...
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

  • Options
    welfordwelford Posts: 20
    edited June 2017

    Mr. Welford, Davidson isn't an MP.

    Not sure Greening has the profile or support from other MPs.

    That's why she needs to play a blinder over the next two years, if May stays for the short-term...Cameron went from Shadow Education Sec to Leader. She needs to sort the schools funding crisis (most of which hasn't stuck to her personally), which I suspect her colleagues will be minded to let her do (it was a factor in driving non-Tory voters to Labour on June 8).


    JACK W
    Hhmmm ....

    Remember the "gay mafia" - I think the "Sun" can just about tolerate one lesb1an in Ruth Davidson strutting her stuff on the national stage but not a lesb1an PM in the form of Justine Greening too. Unless of course they both agreed to naked mud wrestling with exclusive rights for the paper.


    end quote

    I think it could play the other way round these days. Philip Hammond's Achilles Heel is that he didn't vote to support gay marriage. That won't go down well with media commentators....

    Anyway, just a suggestion for the Party as it's stuck between the Devil and the DUP....
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,072

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    But not open borders from 2004 like it was here, which could explain why they don't have such a problem with EU immigration undercutting wages, which is why they didn't allow it. As you say, they made better decisions, we agree
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.

    You think leaving the EU is horrific. I think it's a good thing. A generation from now, we'll know which of us is right.

    At least the break up of the UK (a real prospect three years ago) looks to have been averted.

    I think leaving the EU in the utterly cack-handed, aggressive way the Tories have handled it over the last year is horrific. It has caused substantial damage to our international standing and made it much more likely we will suffer sustained economic harm. I thought the vote to leave the EU was unfortunate, but with care could have been a far from catastrophic development. Both you and I - as well as the wealthy establishment Tories who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns - are almost entirely shielded from the consequences. Millions of others will not be so lucky.

    Yet, it was, and remains, the rich who are most upset about Brexit.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries
    Only for a transitional period. And let's not forget that they took over responsibility for the first post-communist country to join the EU lock, stock and barrel.
    Well, 7 years! In that time UKIP went from 1% to 13% in the polls
    During that time EU immigration was dwarfed by non-EU immigration, as it was in the previous 7 year period too.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE.

    Yep, I'm amazined.

    I suspect within the next week or two Con will be closer to 30-35%.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Mr. 43, it's a mystery why there's so much division in the country when more than half the voters are being compared to pro-slavery people from the 19th century...

    I think some people view the British as feral, and barbaric, who need to be kept in check by the EU.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE.

    Yep, I'm amazined.

    I suspect within the next week or two Con will be closer to 30-35%.
    For that to happen labour would need to be on about 50-55%.... really?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    F1: just a Twitter rumour, but suggests Williams might drop Mercedes engines. For Honda.

    .....

    I can see why (money) Sauber might go for Honda. But this sounds rather mad.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.

    You think leaving the EU is horrific. I think it's a good thing. A generation from now, we'll know which of us is right.

    At least the break up of the UK (a real prospect three years ago) looks to have been averted.

    I think leaving the EU in the utterly cack-handed, aggressive way the Tories have handled it over the last year is horrific. It has caused substantial damage to our international standing and made it much more likely we will suffer sustained economic harm. I thought the vote to leave the EU was unfortunate, but with care could have been a far from catastrophic development. Both you and I - as well as the wealthy establishment Tories who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns - are almost entirely shielded from the consequences. Millions of others will not be so lucky.

    Yet, it was, and remains, the rich who are most upset about Brexit.
    Actually it's the better educated - who incidentally tend to earn more.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Good morning

    It is good to see that the PB Frothers are not politicising the Finsbury Park attack nor rampantly speculating on the backstory of the attacker. Instead they appear to be maintaining a wise distance.

    I can't imagine why!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,848

    Mr. 43, it's a mystery why there's so much division in the country when more than half the voters are being compared to pro-slavery people from the 19th century...

    I didn't intend to imply Leavers were into slavery, but to comment that people can see things in different ways. Including seeing the ownership of slaves as a freedom that needs to be defended. Apologies for the unintended and careless insult.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A deeply divided country that is not at ease with itself is David Cameron's legacy. A poorer country, diminished in the world and still deeply divided will be Theresa May's legacy. The Tories really have screwed the UK over.

    You think leaving the EU is horrific. I think it's a good thing. A generation from now, we'll know which of us is right.

    At least the break up of the UK (a real prospect three years ago) looks to have been averted.

    I think leaving the EU in the utterly cack-handed, aggressive way the Tories have handled it over the last year is horrific. It has caused substantial damage to our international standing and made it much more likely we will suffer sustained economic harm. I thought the vote to leave the EU was unfortunate, but with care could have been a far from catastrophic development. Both you and I - as well as the wealthy establishment Tories who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns - are almost entirely shielded from the consequences. Millions of others will not be so lucky.

    Yet, it was, and remains, the rich who are most upset about Brexit.

    Yep - most people are currently getting on with their lives, which is totally understandable. They will start to notice the practical consequences of the Tories' disastrous handling of the post-referendum fall-out later in the cycle.

  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    Yep and I've told you why. Public sector wages are stagnant because we don't have the money to pay them - its called debt. Check out PFI and other repayments.

    And in the private sector, well most of it, there is an inexhaustable supply of cheap labour which keeps wages down.

    And unlike you I don't differentiate between EU and non EU immigration, I want a fair chance for all, but I want us to import the people we need not those who need us.

    We should copy the Singapore model.
    The Steve Hilton model.

    It is currently easier for an unemployed Italian plasterer to work in the UK than it is a South Korean astrophysicist.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
    I think that some people have been alarmed by calls by the extreme left to overthrow the government.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291

    Good morning

    It is good to see that the PB Frothers are not politicising the Finsbury Park attack nor rampantly speculating on the backstory of the attacker. Instead they appear to be maintaining a wise distance.

    I can't imagine why!

    Restraint due to fears that OGH could done for contempt of court.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Good morning

    It is good to see that the PB Frothers are not politicising the Finsbury Park attack nor rampantly speculating on the backstory of the attacker. Instead they appear to be maintaining a wise distance.

    I can't imagine why!

    He's probably called Dave.....
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    edited June 2017
    JackW said:

    welford said:

    For the Tories, much attention on the leadership has focused on Boris, Davis, Rudd and Hammond (and Ruth).

    But what about thinking outside that circle a bit? People like Ruth Davidson because she's authentic - a working class lesbian who cuts against the Tory stereotype - but also with an eye for campaigning.

    Why doesn't Justine Greening - working class, Yorkshire born, London seat, in a lesbian relationship, no notable disasters on her CV - start grabbing a few photo opportunities? She'd be in a good position to take over from May in two years after the Brexit negotiations.....

    Hhmmm ....

    Remember the "gay mafia" - I think the "Sun" can just about tolerate one lesb1an in Ruth Davidson strutting her stuff on the national stage but not a lesb1an PM in the form of Justine Greening too. Unless of course they both agreed to naked mud wrestling with exclusive rights for the paper.

    I don't think the Sun cares about this anymore (even if it mattered what the Sun thinks about anything).
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "I hate to say it, but I can’t blame the millennials who voted for Corbyn

    Conservatism looked uninspirational and self-hating – no wonder it failed to capture the young in this election
    James Delingpole"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/i-hate-to-say-it-but-i-cant-blame-the-millennials-who-voted-for-corbyn/
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    But not open borders from 2004 like it was here, which could explain why they don't have such a problem with EU immigration undercutting wages, which is why they didn't allow it. As you say, they made better decisions, we agree

    Pre-2011 immigration to Germany from the A8 countries was concentrated in the low skills, low wage sectors. It issued hundreds of thousands of work permits to A8 citizens between 2004 and 2011.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. 43, np, and apology accepted.

    It's easy to say stuff carelessly or for things to be poorly expressed (or received) online. I know I've cocked up that way several times.

    Mr. F, that march is scheduled for Wednesday, right? The day of rage, to stop London and overthrow the government.

    We'll see how the far left get on.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287

    And unlike you I don't differentiate between EU and non EU immigration, I want a fair chance for all, but I want us to import the people we need not those who need us.

    So you'd end free movement for Irish EU citizens too?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,391
    welford said:

    For the Tories, much attention on the leadership has focused on Boris, Davis, Rudd and Hammond (and Ruth).

    But what about thinking outside that circle a bit? People like Ruth Davidson because she's authentic - a working class lesbian who cuts against the Tory stereotype - but also with an eye for campaigning.

    Why doesn't Justine Greening - working class, Yorkshire born, London seat, in a lesbian relationship, no notable disasters on her CV - start grabbing a few photo opportunities? She'd be in a good position to take over from May in two years after the Brexit negotiations.....

    I'm always slightly mystified by the description of Davidson as 'working class'. Her father was I believe in turn a woolen mill manager and a distillery manager, posts not traditionally thought of as working class in Scotland.

  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    welford said:


    I think it could play the other way round these days. Philip Hammond's Achilles Heel is that he didn't vote to support gay marriage. That won't go down well with media commentators....

    Anyway, just a suggestion for the Party as it's stuck between the Devil and the DUP....

    Graham Brady (whose name was being bandied about downthread) is also no equality champion. He used to be more liberal but from the mid-2000s seems to have been digging his heels in.

    On 19 Mar 2007: Graham Brady voted no on Equality Act (Sexual Orientation) Regulations

    On 5 Feb 2013: Graham Brady voted against allowing same sex couples to marry.

    On 21 May 2013: Graham Brady voted against allowing same sex couples to marry.

    On 5 Mar 2014: Graham Brady was absent for a vote on Same Sex Marriage — Enabling Courts to Deal with Divorce or Annulment Proceedings

    On 5 Mar 2014: Graham Brady was absent for a vote on Make Same Sex Marriage Available to Armed Forces Personnel Outside the United Kingdom


    - taken from theyworkforyou.com
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,584
    dr_spyn said:

    Good morning

    It is good to see that the PB Frothers are not politicising the Finsbury Park attack nor rampantly speculating on the backstory of the attacker. Instead they appear to be maintaining a wise distance.

    I can't imagine why!

    Restraint due to fears that OGH could done for contempt of court.
    See this thread:

    https://twitter.com/steveparks/status/876707670429978624
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    edited June 2017

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?





    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?



    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    But not open borders from 2004 like it was here, which could explain why they don't have such a problem with EU immigration undercutting wages, which is why they didn't allow it. As you say, they made better decisions, we agree

    Pre-2011 immigration to Germany from the A8 countries was concentrated in the low skills, low wage sectors. It issued hundreds of thousands of work permits to A8 citizens between 2004 and 2011.
    As opposed to our millions. Good decision from the Germans

    "So one of the largest immigration flows to Britain was not altogether an immigration policy. In retrospect, if the government had known just how large this wave of migration would be, it would have undoubtedly made a different decision, as Jack Straw, the former home secretary, admitted in 2013*."

    http://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077

    * http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24924219
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    And unlike you I don't differentiate between EU and non EU immigration, I want a fair chance for all, but I want us to import the people we need not those who need us.

    So you'd end free movement for Irish EU citizens too?
    Good suggestion for a solution to the Irish border question.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    @southam

    Did we agree that?

    Our problems (well part of it) have revolved around importing unskilled people to work for peanuts and therefore not contribute to the economy. At the same time they drive down wages.

    It really is straightforward, if ten people apply for a job the employer is in control. As somebody who purports to care for the poor in society I'm surprised you want to make life even harder for them by making it difficult to get a well paid job.

    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?

    For the reasons I've already told you, they make things and trade, we don't do that anywhere near as successfully. We get kids to do degrees in media studies and work in call centres.

    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    Yep and I've told you why. Public sector wages are stagnant because we don't have the money to pay them - its called debt. Check out PFI and other repayments.

    And in the private sector, well most of it, there is an inexhaustable supply of cheap labour which keeps wages down.

    And unlike you I don't differentiate between EU and non EU immigration, I want a fair chance for all, but I want us to import the people we need not those who need us.

    We should copy the Singapore model.

    Yep - for all kinds of reasons I would definitely give priority to economic immigrants from the EU. Germany also has the possibility of an inexhaustible supply of cheap labour, but wages are not falling as they are in the UK.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    welford said:

    For the Tories, much attention on the leadership has focused on Boris, Davis, Rudd and Hammond (and Ruth).

    But what about thinking outside that circle a bit? People like Ruth Davidson because she's authentic - a working class lesbian who cuts against the Tory stereotype - but also with an eye for campaigning.

    Why doesn't Justine Greening - working class, Yorkshire born, London seat, in a lesbian relationship, no notable disasters on her CV - start grabbing a few photo opportunities? She'd be in a good position to take over from May in two years after the Brexit negotiations.....

    I'm always slightly mystified by the description of Davidson as 'working class'. Her father was I believe in turn a woolen mill manager and a distillery manager, posts not traditionally thought of as working class in Scotland.

    The Tories' problem is always to imagine there's a Messiah, somewhere, who will lead them to a large overall majority.

    Then the Messiah turns out to have feet of clay.

    We've had three elections in a row where the Conservatives have won an average of 318 seats. That indicates a significant depth of support for the party, but also a significant depth of opposition, and I don't think the opposition is based upon whoever happens to be their leader for the time being.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,940

    welford said:


    I think it could play the other way round these days. Philip Hammond's Achilles Heel is that he didn't vote to support gay marriage. That won't go down well with media commentators....

    Anyway, just a suggestion for the Party as it's stuck between the Devil and the DUP....

    Graham Brady (whose name was being bandied about downthread) is also no equality champion. He used to be more liberal but from the mid-2000s seems to have been digging his heels in.

    On 19 Mar 2007: Graham Brady voted no on Equality Act (Sexual Orientation) Regulations

    On 5 Feb 2013: Graham Brady voted against allowing same sex couples to marry.

    On 21 May 2013: Graham Brady voted against allowing same sex couples to marry.

    On 5 Mar 2014: Graham Brady was absent for a vote on Same Sex Marriage — Enabling Courts to Deal with Divorce or Annulment Proceedings

    On 5 Mar 2014: Graham Brady was absent for a vote on Make Same Sex Marriage Available to Armed Forces Personnel Outside the United Kingdom


    - taken from theyworkforyou.com
    Must be chasing the footballer vote in Hale. ......

    As I mentioned the other day he's apparently known locally as 'thicko' so apart from his homophobia he should do nicely.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
    I think that some people have been alarmed by calls by the extreme left to overthrow the government.
    Hence Labour's rise in the polls?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?





    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?



    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    But not open borders from 2004 like it was here, which could explain why they don't have such a problem with EU immigration undercutting wages, which is why they didn't allow it. As you say, they made better decisions, we agree

    Pre-2011 immigration to Germany from the A8 countries was concentrated in the low skills, low wage sectors. It issued hundreds of thousands of work permits to A8 citizens between 2004 and 2011.
    As opposed to our millions. Good decision from the Germans

    "So one of the largest immigration flows to Britain was not altogether an immigration policy. In retrospect, if the government had known just how large this wave of migration would be, it would have undoubtedly made a different decision, as Jack Straw, the former home secretary, admitted in 2013*."

    http://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077

    * http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24924219

    Hundreds of thousands of work permits does not equate to overall numbers of immigrants; neither does it give any indication of numbers employed illegally.

  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    welford said:


    I think it could play the other way round these days. Philip Hammond's Achilles Heel is that he didn't vote to support gay marriage. That won't go down well with media commentators....

    Anyway, just a suggestion for the Party as it's stuck between the Devil and the DUP....

    Graham Brady (whose name was being bandied about downthread) is also no equality champion. He used to be more liberal but from the mid-2000s seems to have been digging his heels in.

    On 19 Mar 2007: Graham Brady voted no on Equality Act (Sexual Orientation) Regulations

    On 5 Feb 2013: Graham Brady voted against allowing same sex couples to marry.

    On 21 May 2013: Graham Brady voted against allowing same sex couples to marry.

    On 5 Mar 2014: Graham Brady was absent for a vote on Same Sex Marriage — Enabling Courts to Deal with Divorce or Annulment Proceedings

    On 5 Mar 2014: Graham Brady was absent for a vote on Make Same Sex Marriage Available to Armed Forces Personnel Outside the United Kingdom


    - taken from theyworkforyou.com
    Another socially conservative prat.

    And no-one has ever heard of him.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    edited June 2017

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?





    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?



    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    immigration undercutting wages, which is why they didn't allow it. As you say, they made better decisions, we agree

    Pre-2011 immigration to Germany from the A8 countries was concentrated in the low skills, low wage sectors. It issued hundreds of thousands of work permits to A8 citizens between 2004 and 2011.
    As opposed to our millions. Good decision from the Germans

    "So one of the largest immigration flows to Britain was not altogether an immigration policy. In retrospect, if the government had known just how large this wave of migration would be, it would have undoubtedly made a different decision, as Jack Straw, the former home secretary, admitted in 2013*."

    http://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077

    * http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24924219

    Hundreds of thousands of work permits does not equate to overall numbers of immigrants; neither does it give any indication of numbers employed illegally.

    So in short you are saying that the Germans were wrong to impose the transitional deal? Otherwise what are you arguing against here? You think we got it right and they were wrong? Our politicians that allowed the mass immigration that now say they were wrong are wrong to say that?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?





    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?



    Not ten people applying for every job? Go and talk to the kids leaving uni and tell them that. And go to a council estate outside London and ask the residents if immigration has affected their wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    But not open borders from 2004 like it was here, which could explain why they don't have such a problem with EU immigration undercutting wages, which is why they didn't allow it. As you say, they made better decisions, we agree

    Pre-2011 immigration to Germany from the A8 countries was concentrated in the low skills, low wage sectors. It issued hundreds of thousands of work permits to A8 citizens between 2004 and 2011.
    As opposed to our millions. Good decision from the Germans

    "So one of the largest immigration flows to Britain was not altogether an immigration policy. In retrospect, if the government had known just how large this wave of migration would be, it would have undoubtedly made a different decision, as Jack Straw, the former home secretary, admitted in 2013*."

    http://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077

    * http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24924219

    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
    I think that some people have been alarmed by calls by the extreme left to overthrow the government.
    Hence Labour's rise in the polls?
    Hence, the rise in people saying they want May to stay in place.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    dr_spyn said:

    Good morning

    It is good to see that the PB Frothers are not politicising the Finsbury Park attack nor rampantly speculating on the backstory of the attacker. Instead they appear to be maintaining a wise distance.

    I can't imagine why!

    Restraint due to fears that OGH could done for contempt of court.
    Yes, it's amazing just how disciplined the PB Frothers are being in that regard - they certainly seem to have turned over a new leaf!!
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?





    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?



    Not wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    But , we agree

    Pre-2011 immigration to Germany from the A8 countries was concentrated in the low skills, low wage sectors. It issued hundreds of thousands of work permits to A8 citizens between 2004 and 2011.
    As opposed to our millions. Good decision from the Germans

    "So one of the largest immigration flows to Britain was not altogether an immigration policy. In retrospect, if the government had known just how large this wave of migration would be, it would have undoubtedly made a different decision, as Jack Straw, the former home secretary, admitted in 2013*."

    http://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077

    * http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24924219

    Hundreds of thousands of work permits does not equate to overall numbers of immigrants; neither does it give any indication of numbers employed illegally.

    So in short you are saying that the Germans were wrong to impose the transitional deal? Otherwise what are you arguing against here? You think we got it right and they were wrong?

    No, I am saying that you cannot explain falling UK incomes and rising German incomes on the back of what happened between 2004 and 2011. Politically, it is absolutely clear to me that the Germans made the right call and we made the wrong one.

  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,156

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
    I think that some people have been alarmed by calls by the extreme left to overthrow the government.
    Hence Labour's rise in the polls?
    I just had a very, very long YouGov poll which basically consisted of a bunch of questions asking whether I wanted to help overthrow the elected government and install a dictatorship.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    I don't get why people give her the publicity she craves. There is no human tragedy she will not exploit to build her brand and make money. Surely she is better off ignored.

  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited June 2017

    God I loathe this woman.

    twitter.com/SnoozeInBrief/status/876736558707113985

    twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/876731613098520576

    She is a wart on the backside of humanity.
    Some "Compound W" might be in order ;)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    edited June 2017

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @southam

    Did we agree that?





    We have virtual full employment now. There are not 10 people applying for every job.

    Why haven't high rates of immigration driven down wages and living standards in Germany?



    Not wages.

    So the Germans have made much better decisions than us. Yes, I agree. Not sure what that has to do with EU immigration, though.

    You argued that employees have the upper hand when there is full employment. Unemployment rates are at historically low levels in this country, but real incomes are falling.


    They made the decision not to allow mass immigration from A8 countries

    It's been open borders for citizens of the A8 countries in Germany since May 2011, though even before that there were hundreds of thousands of them there.

    But , we agree

    Pre-2011 immigration to Germany from the A8 countries was concentrated in the low skills, low wage sectors. It issued hundreds of thousands of work permits to A8 citizens between 2004 and 2011.
    As opposed to our millions. Good decision from the Germans

    "So one of the largest immigration flows to Britain was not altogether an immigration policy. In retrospect, if the government had known just how large this wave of migration would be, it would have undoubtedly made a different decision, as Jack Straw, the former home secretary, admitted in 2013*."

    http://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077

    * http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24924219

    Hundreds of thousands of work permits does not equate to overall numbers of immigrants; neither does it give any indication of numbers employed illegally.

    So in short you are saying that the Germans were wrong to impose the transitional deal? Otherwise what are you arguing against here? You think we got it right and they were wrong?

    No, I am saying that you cannot explain falling UK incomes and rising German incomes on the back of what happened between 2004 and 2011. Politically, it is absolutely clear to me that the Germans made the right call and we made the wrong one.

    I think you can explain them by that, but I will agree to disagree
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,940
    I've just read the comments under her headline. It's surprising people take her seriously.
  • Options
    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I think 41% is surprisingly good for the Conservatives, given the media onslaught these last few weeks. It just proves once again, that the vast majority of people in this country are decent, law-abiding and have oodles of common-sense. Listening to the media, you would think they were brainless idiots.

    If the Conservatives hold their nerve and grow a pair, then they can get through this. They really need to, as this country is one-step away from Jeremy Corbyn and his vicious gang of thugs. His true colours are being exposed on a daily basis and yet the media are still treating him with kid-gloves.

  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    I think 41% is surprisingly good for the Conservatives, given the media onslaught these last few weeks. It just proves once again, that the vast majority of people in this country are decent, law-abiding and have oodles of common-sense. Listening to the media, you would think they were brainless idiots.

    If the Conservatives hold their nerve and grow a pair, then they can get through this. They really need to, as this country is one-step away from Jeremy Corbyn and his vicious gang of thugs. His true colours are being exposed on a daily basis and yet the media are still treating him with kid-gloves.

    Anybody would think this wasn't a self inflicted 'Crush the Saboteurs' election.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

    If - as is being reported - Grenfell (and many other blocks in London and elsewhere) were being illegally sublet to multiple occupancy, then maybe Labour takes some of the blame, for that obvious bad economic consequence on the housing market? But I don't expect anyone in Labour to be putting their hands up to that one...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Lady Bucket, I agree. The media treating the idea of throwing away property rights as just another suggestion, or the Leader of the Opposition openly advocating occupying vacant properties is a serious dereliction of duty.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    I don't get why people give her the publicity she craves. There is no human tragedy she will not exploit to build her brand and make money. Surely she is better off ignored.

    +1 Yes let's ignore her.
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    OchEye said:

    PeterC said:

    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    Anybody thinking there will be a general election in the next 5 years is deluded. Politics is about power, nothing but, Cameron and May foolishly rolled the dice and look what happened. There is not a chance the tories will relinquish power until 2022.

    On here people are increasingly conflating what they want to happen with reality.

    Yeah but what about by-elections and defections etc.? in Oct 1974 Labour won an overall majority of 3 but it soon got whittled away and they had to make a pact with the Liberals to stay in power. After that collapsed they beaten in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.

    John Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 but by 1997 he was running a minority government and had to do deals with the Ulstermen.
    Defections? Are you seriously suggesting a tory will join Corbyn's labour?

    See what I mean about people WANTING things to happen.
    What if say half a dozen pro-EU MPs on Labour's right wing get fed up with Corbyn and form a new party?
    If we aren't getting a deal from the EU and on course to leave without one, one or two fanatical Tory remaindermen might be tempted to join them.
    Political realignment is a possibility in this parliament: shut out both the Marxists and the europhobes: a new pro-business party supporting EFTA.
    Sorry, but with the possibility still of another GE this year or next, do you really think any MP of any party will want to piss off their local constituency party members, support or more importantly, their electorate? They might look and act like cabbages, but they are not that stupid.
    If it happens it's possible that it could be almost an organic process following the breakdown of party discipline over an existential Brexit vote.
    Er! Politicians caring about their Parties? When did that happen? They join a party of similarly like and thinking people to exert a co-ordinated control, but none of them are bound hand, foot and sexual organs to any one party. (Personal predilections aside that is)

    But saying that, the MP's know which side of the bread is buttered, and if they don't behave as the majority of the electorate in the constituency expects, or the constituency party members, supporters and foot soldiers want, then they will be toast. Without an existing local support network, they will not be elected again.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287

    I think 41% is surprisingly good for the Conservatives, given the media onslaught these last few weeks. It just proves once again, that the vast majority of people in this country are decent, law-abiding and have oodles of common-sense. Listening to the media, you would think they were brainless idiots.

    If the Conservatives hold their nerve and grow a pair, then they can get through this. They really need to, as this country is one-step away from Jeremy Corbyn and his vicious gang of thugs. His true colours are being exposed on a daily basis and yet the media are still treating him with kid-gloves.

    Anybody would think this wasn't a self inflicted 'Crush the Saboteurs' election.
    Her speech justifying the decision to call an election was pure Erdogan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39630009

    At this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division. The country is coming together, but Westminster is not.
  • Options



    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

    Given it lead directly to the Brexit vote. It would seem fairly obvious.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

    If - as is being reported - Grenfell (and many other blocks in London and elsewhere) were being illegally sublet to multiple occupancy, then maybe Labour takes some of the blame, for that obvious bad economic consequence on the housing market? But I don't expect anyone in Labour to be putting their hands up to that one...
    Pretty desperate stuff, especially as Labour has been in opposition since 2010. Who was Home Secretary under David Cameron?
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,400
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
    I think that some people have been alarmed by calls by the extreme left to overthrow the government.
    Although Grenfell is absolutely something to "play politics" about - it's not a tragedy caused by a random fanatic, but systemic government failure, sorry it's going to be political - if I was a Labour advisor I'd be a bit worried he and his media cheerleaders were getting high off their own supply. He did as well as he did in the election by defying the image of the borderline communist ogre the Tories cast him as. Instead he looked like a reasonable politician with a heart who desperately wanted to make a difference. That allowed a lot of voters who feel royally screwed by the Tories to vote for him, even if they were slightly sceptical about his ability to deliver. The danger is the success goes to his and McDonnell heads and he mistakes the Under-35's deep discontent and feelings of anger and betrayal towards the Tories for a full unequivocal endorsement of his more Marxist tendencies. I think a lot of people on the left will have cringed and recoiled when he used the word "occupy".

    If he does so, he wouldn't fall away, but put off the voters he needs to make the next step towards actually being the largest party and forming a government - getting stuck in the high 30s with the Tories just out of reach.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,940

    JackW said:

    What if it snows in London today?

    The DUP will not allow it. Climate change and all that ....
    Or if it does snow, it'll be the gayers to blame.
    Save Ulster From (al fresco) Sodomy!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. Glenn, no, it wasn't.

    Erdogan has suppressed and taken over media organisations, arrested vast numbers of soldiers, teachers, police and members of the judiciary and rewritten the constitution ('winning' a referendum with a less than free press).

    May was incompetent and her decision self-serving and full of hubris, but a comparison with Erdogan is very inaccurate.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. Borough, an alarming finding. I'm not sure the people of Venezuela would agree.

    https://twitter.com/kwilli1046/status/876397996111532033
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    edited June 2017

    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

    If - as is being reported - Grenfell (and many other blocks in London and elsewhere) were being illegally sublet to multiple occupancy, then maybe Labour takes some of the blame, for that obvious bad economic consequence on the housing market? But I don't expect anyone in Labour to be putting their hands up to that one...
    Where's the bad economic consequence on the housing market? The problem with the housing market is not enough supply to meet demand (because of the mad anti-construction Mary-Whitehouse-Meets-Brezhnev British planning system), so more people squeezing themselves into smaller places is helpful, no?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,391
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    welford said:

    For the Tories, much attention on the leadership has focused on Boris, Davis, Rudd and Hammond (and Ruth).

    But what about thinking outside that circle a bit? People like Ruth Davidson because she's authentic - a working class lesbian who cuts against the Tory stereotype - but also with an eye for campaigning.

    Why doesn't Justine Greening - working class, Yorkshire born, London seat, in a lesbian relationship, no notable disasters on her CV - start grabbing a few photo opportunities? She'd be in a good position to take over from May in two years after the Brexit negotiations.....

    I'm always slightly mystified by the description of Davidson as 'working class'. Her father was I believe in turn a woolen mill manager and a distillery manager, posts not traditionally thought of as working class in Scotland.

    The Tories' problem is always to imagine there's a Messiah, somewhere, who will lead them to a large overall majority.

    Then the Messiah turns out to have feet of clay.

    We've had three elections in a row where the Conservatives have won an average of 318 seats. That indicates a significant depth of support for the party, but also a significant depth of opposition, and I don't think the opposition is based upon whoever happens to be their leader for the time being.
    I think most parties nowadays have a tendency to start with which public appeal boxes are ticked for any candidate. Beginning with a template and then trying to squeeze individuals through it isn't a great way to help talent grow into power.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287
    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Mr. Borough, an alarming finding. I'm not sure the people of Venezuela would agree.

    It would be interesting to ask the 43% which country they think most closely matches their idea of a 'genuinely socialist' government.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
    I think that some people have been alarmed by calls by the extreme left to overthrow the government.
    I hadn't heard that rumour about Anna Soubrey ....
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Given the relentlessly negative coverage the Tories have had for the last two weeks, this poll is surprisingly good for them, 41% compared to 43.5% at the GE. It's consistent with the party losing a bit of support in places like London and staying about the same everywhere else.

    It's notable that there's been a big rise over the past 7 days in the number saying they want Theresa May to remain as PM. My guess would be that some people think the criticisms of her are overblown.
    Corbyn playing politics over Grenfell is playing badly with some too.
    I think that some people have been alarmed by calls by the extreme left to overthrow the government.
    Hence Labour's rise in the polls?
    Do you mean a fall in the lead compared to the earlier poll by Survation? Post after embarrassing post yet you can't keep your fingers away from the keyboard.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    edited June 2017

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    I don't get why people give her the publicity she craves. There is no human tragedy she will not exploit to build her brand and make money. Surely she is better off ignored.

    There are far too many people on all sides of the political divide seeking to exploit this tragedy.

    It is very depressing.

    The only thing we should all be concerned about is getting to the truth so it never happens again.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287
    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    It's not a question of keeping the voters at bay, but of defining the parameters within which democracy takes place. In reference to the discussion earlier, do you think making slavery unconstitutional is a question of 'keeping voters at bay'?

    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Mr. Borough, an alarming finding. I'm not sure the people of Venezuela would agree.

    It would be interesting to ask the 43% which country they think most closely matches their idea of a 'genuinely socialist' government.

    Agreed. It's a meaningless question unless you ask people what they understand by the term "genuinely socialist". I bet it's not Cuba or the former Soviet Union.

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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mr. Borough, an alarming finding. I'm not sure the people of Venezuela would agree.

    It would be interesting to ask the 43% which country they think most closely matches their idea of a 'genuinely socialist' government.
    It will not be a long list to choose from. It might only have North Korea on it.
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    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121

    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

    If - as is being reported - Grenfell (and many other blocks in London and elsewhere) were being illegally sublet to multiple occupancy, then maybe Labour takes some of the blame, for that obvious bad economic consequence on the housing market? But I don't expect anyone in Labour to be putting their hands up to that one...
    Where's the bad economic consequence on the housing market? The problem with the housing market is not enough supply to meet demand (because of the mad anti-construction Mary-Whitehouse-Meets-Brezhnev British planning system), so more people squeezing themselves into smaller places is helpful, no?
    Perhaps the UK should get a handle on immigration both legal and otherwise first? If people are sleeping 10 to a flat, it's highly likely they have no right to be here in the first place. Why on earth should we be concreting over the Green Belt to accommodate them.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    It's not a question of keeping the voters at bay, but of defining the parameters within which democracy takes place. In reference to the discussion earlier, do you think making slavery unconstitutional is a question of 'keeping voters at bay'?

    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    The election of a socialist government is hardly comparable to the reinstatement of slavery.

    Neither of the assertions in your final paragraph is correct.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Mr. Borough, an alarming finding. I'm not sure the people of Venezuela would agree.

    It would be interesting to ask the 43% which country they think most closely matches their idea of a 'genuinely socialist' government.

    Agreed. It's a meaningless question unless you ask people what they understand by the term "genuinely socialist". I bet it's not Cuba or the former Soviet Union.

    I imagine that people would have in mind a government like that of Clement Attlee, not Fidel Castro.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,150
    BBC report of Jeremy Corbyn's comments on the Finsbury Park attack:

    "He added he had visited the site last night to talk to the police.

    "Mr Corbyn said he had had a "long conversation" with Sadiq Khan at about 04:00 BST to ensure the response was "efficient and co-ordinated."

    "Mr Corbyn said he hadn't spoken to the prime minister since the attack but "Downing Street have been in touch with us," to send their condolences. Asked if Theresa May should visit, he said: "it is not up to me to decide what the prime minister does.""
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. F, perhaps. But Corbyn's closer to Castro than Attlee.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited June 2017

    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

    If - as is being reported - Grenfell (and many other blocks in London and elsewhere) were being illegally sublet to multiple occupancy, then maybe Labour takes some of the blame, for that obvious bad economic consequence on the housing market? But I don't expect anyone in Labour to be putting their hands up to that one...
    Where's the bad economic consequence on the housing market? The problem with the housing market is not enough supply to meet demand (because of the mad anti-construction Mary-Whitehouse-Meets-Brezhnev British planning system), so more people squeezing themselves into smaller places is helpful, no?
    Arguably, Labour's biggest fault when in power for 13 years was letting in millions of people - "to rub the Right's nose in diversity" - but not acknowledging it was doing that. So it couldn't front up the requirement for a vast increase in the needs for health, for transport, for education - or for housing. Because that would have been politically toxic.

    There are many reasons for Grenfell. The stresses put on accommodation by an unprecedented rise in immigration not matched by a growth in housing is one of them, and one for which Labour bears much, but not all, of the responsibility.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Borough, an alarming finding. I'm not sure the people of Venezuela would agree.

    It would be interesting to ask the 43% which country they think most closely matches their idea of a 'genuinely socialist' government.

    Agreed. It's a meaningless question unless you ask people what they understand by the term "genuinely socialist". I bet it's not Cuba or the former Soviet Union.

    I imagine that people would have in mind a government like that of Clement Attlee, not Fidel Castro.
    I hope not, the Attlee government was an unmitigated disaster in terms of economics and industrial policy (nationalisation of road transport, for heaven's sake!). Indeed we are still very badly affected by it, in the unwieldy structure of the NHS.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
    Their second best ever GE and an absolute majority of Scottish seats?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157

    Yep, I do agree Labour made a very bad call politically. Whether it was a bad one economically is much more open to question.

    If - as is being reported - Grenfell (and many other blocks in London and elsewhere) were being illegally sublet to multiple occupancy, then maybe Labour takes some of the blame, for that obvious bad economic consequence on the housing market? But I don't expect anyone in Labour to be putting their hands up to that one...
    Where's the bad economic consequence on the housing market? The problem with the housing market is not enough supply to meet demand (because of the mad anti-construction Mary-Whitehouse-Meets-Brezhnev British planning system), so more people squeezing themselves into smaller places is helpful, no?
    Perhaps the UK should get a handle on immigration both legal and otherwise first? If people are sleeping 10 to a flat, it's highly likely they have no right to be here in the first place. Why on earth should we be concreting over the Green Belt to accommodate them.
    It's not just non-UK immigrants living in shitty flat-share situations in London right now. People from all over the UK want to live there, and ambitious young people don't have any better options.

    Letting the market build new housing when the population grows isn't a mysteriously difficult problem. If you're really bothered about the green belt then you can let people build upwards as well; This is one of the big differences with Tokyo, which has also got a growing population, but it isn't resulting in silly rents.

    Britain simply has too much government involvement in deciding who is allowed to build what where, and it's having all the same obvious, predictable consequences that excessive government control has on the Venezuelan toilet paper market.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
    Their second best ever GE and an absolute majority of Scottish seats?
    The trend is not their friend....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
    Their second best ever GE and an absolute majority of Scottish seats?
    The trend is not their friend....
    One election doesn't establish a trend. A further SCON campaign of, "We said we said No and we meant what we said that we said," isn't likely to be as effective.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
    Their second best ever GE and an absolute majority of Scottish seats?
    The trend is not their friend....
    One election doesn't establish a trend. A further SCON campaign of, "We said we said No and we meant what we said that we said," isn't likely to be as effective.
    Focusing down on actually governing - you know, education and the like - is likely to be continually effective as the SNP has gone for "Ooh, look - bright shiny Independence!!" at the expense of a generation of Scottish kids having a sub-optimal education.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Excellent statement by the PM.

    Now don't blow it, get your self down the road to Finsbury, if necessary jointly with the local MP ... Jezza.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
    Their second best ever GE and an absolute majority of Scottish seats?
    The party won 35 of the 59 Scottish constituencies - a fall of 21 seats from the 56 they won in 2015....

    .....The SNP won 36.9% of the votes, a drop of 13.1 percentage points since 2015.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40192707
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    O/T

    Bloody Hell it's hot
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited June 2017

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
    Their second best ever GE and an absolute majority of Scottish seats?
    The trend is not their friend....
    FWIW the Daily Record haven't published Scottish voting figures from last week's Survation poll. However, Survation used the data and forecasted 6 SNP gains !
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,129

    Sean_F said:

    The red flag of Brexit. All those right-wing souverainistes agitating to implement Tony Benn and Michael Foot's agenda should face a terrible reckoning.
    I think that the very worst argument against Brexit is that the EU keeps the voters at bay. I don't like socialism, but if that's what people vote for, I'll have to suck it up.
    The UK was an entity in terminal political decline before we joined the EEC, and we're now back on the fast track to historical oblivion.
    I expect that's why the Nationalists in Scotland had the worst result of any party in the recent GE......
    Their second best ever GE and an absolute majority of Scottish seats?
    The trend is not their friend....
    One election doesn't establish a trend. A further SCON campaign of, "We said we said No and we meant what we said that we said," isn't likely to be as effective.
    Focusing down on actually governing - you know, education and the like - is likely to be continually effective as the SNP has gone for "Ooh, look - bright shiny Independence!!" at the expense of a generation of Scottish kids having a sub-optimal education.
    They are a NATIONALIST party for #%}*^ sake. The meme is; when we're REALLY in control....
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    That was a really good statement by May.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,584
    EU on encryption. Strongly supporting it. UK now at odds on this, but we might be leaving:

    https://www.macrumors.com/2017/06/19/eu-proposals-ban-encryption-backdoors/
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117
    Don't worry guys, I'm ok at the moment!
This discussion has been closed.