At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
An assessment without a shred of evidence. I'm in France at the moment and have been more or less since their election and the mood of optimism is everywhere and tangible.
Until he starts to implement his economic reforms when he will have to face down the unions and the left
An interesting lead reflecting points I have been making on PB. Brexit was backed by a narrow vote a year ago but the government's approach to it was holed by a vote last week. The element missing from Kieran's analysis is the likely new vote that will be needed to enable Labour to square its previous adherence to backing A50 and respecting the first vote with the actual preference of almost all Labour MPs (and a majority of the new parliament), which is not to leave at all.
The dynamics that have changed are, firstly, that the authority of the 2016 vote is weakened by the 2017 vote, secondly, that the Commons has tilted further toward Remain (and with a bloc of Scottish Tories complicating the picture), and, thirdly, that Labour now faces not indefinite opposition but is favourite for a spell in office, possibly quite soon. Going along with A50 when the Tories were expected to carry the can is VERY different from either implementing Brexit themselves or finding themselves responsible for the immediate aftermath.
Labour MPs don't believe in Brexit, and whilst they might have let the Tories see it through, they will not want to be the ones left carrying this ticking parcel when the music stops.
There is not, as yet, a clear path towards the death of Brexit - but the fact that a majority wish it ill clearly points towards there being no guarantee that it will not die.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
Immediatey after Brexit my daughter sent me a piece she wrote about its consequences for her firm's clients. She's a lawyer (yes, I know....) and she dealt with the narrow technical implications, which I found illuminating. One surprising point that I found interesting but at the time seemed irrelevant is that the drafting of the Articles clearly intended to make it easy for countries to stay in the EU. In short, it seems that if a Country that has written an Article 50 letter changes its mind, it merely has to indicate as much and as long as it is not out of time, the whole leaving process comes to a halt.
I am not saying that we will or should do this, but if we do want to change our minds it seems the mechanism is blissfully easy.
That does not seem to be the majority view which is that the service of an Article 50 letter is irrevocable but this is a decision that will ultimately be made by politicians rather than lawyers.
I very much doubt it would be easy. The price for seeking to withdraw such a notice is likely to be revisiting such matters as the UK rebate and possibly some of our opt outs. I would fear for any government which put such a proposal to the British people.
Just delurking for this - I'm sure Peter is absolutely correct, under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, a nations, so long as it does so in good faith, may withdraw notice to leave a treaty agreement at any time up until the point at which that notice takes effect.
The EU treaties are drafted to refer to Vienna (so Andrew Duff explains) so as to allow them to remain manageable in the context of international convention, otherwise you would have had to insert many clauses from Vienna into the EU treaties themselves for them to be watertight.
Article 5 of the Vienna Convention says that it applies to any treaty adopted within an international organization "without prejudice to any relevant rules of the organizaion."
So I don't understand why people think anything in the Vienna Convention could negate the explicit provision in Article 50 for the UK automatically to cease to be a member of the EU two years after Article 50 was invoked. Even if all the other EU members were signatories of the Vienna Convention, which they aren't.
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
I imagine he is trying to respin that statement as "get more net gains". If he does want to switch horses, why not say something which is more honest, like, "yes, and while he didn't quite achieve that, he did better than anyone expected and is clearly best placed to take the Labour Party forward and back to government when May's discredit administration collapses." Or similar.
Looking ahead to Azerbaijan, there are three things worth considering: Bottas to win (each way), Perez win (each way), making sure you have a good book.
The Jacobite News Network understands that the DUP have "requested" that Arlene Foster replace Donald Trump for a state visit and also to invite the Queen for a reciprocal visit to Ulster, take the salute during the Orange Order marching season, pay her respects at the shrine of Reverend Ian Paisley and cut the ribbon of the new UK stated funded Museum of Homosexual Eternal Damnation in Antrim.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
What if the UK and the EU simply agreed to extend the A50 period indefinitely?
They could clearly do that, but the other members would need to agree unanimously. Even if a minority of the other members wanted to make adjustments to the UK's terms of membership as a condition of allowing us to stay, they could insist on that.
given that turnout was only up 2 % ish, then the surge had to be complemented by lack of turnout elsewhere and, as noted in the link, was split.
fine margins - but still a royal fuckup.
I'm quite angry, still, as that is solely down to one or two policies that could have been left for another day. There's three or four things that most annoy me but broadly its the Ed Miliband policies in that manifesto that really burn away.
Also - sorry, Justin124, a cooler, wiser head than mine. Hope you're sleeping in a bed made of crisp fivers.
Technical question: Let's say for the sake of argument that the UK has a government that's able to survive no-confidence votes, but it isn't able to get EU-related legislation through. What happens then? Presumably a lot of UK legislation is written on the premise that Britain is a member of the EU, but Article 50 has already been invoked, so Britain seems to be leaving unless somebody actively does something to stop it happening?
So if parliament is basically disfunctional, is it correct to say that the default outcome is car-crash Brexit, with added confusion?
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
But it is in Labour's interests to re-open the split in the right?
Technical question: Let's say for the sake of argument that the UK has a government that's able to survive no-confidence votes, but it isn't able to get EU-related legislation through. What happens then? Presumably a lot of UK legislation is written on the premise that Britain is a member of the EU, but Article 50 has already been invoked, so Britain seems to be leaving unless somebody actively does something to stop it happening?
So if parliament is basically disfunctional, is it correct to say that the default outcome is car-crash Brexit, with added confusion?
oh, and one big lesson - and it may be worth going back a few years
don't take your vote for granted <-- in bold, underlined.
The Tories did in three places:
1. The youth won't turn out - my hunch is that while up, it is still lower than the other cohorts but they did.
2. The oldies will turn out - they didn't and if they did, they were split
3. CON + UKIP > LAB - turned into CON + 0.5 UKIP < LAB + 0.5 UKIP
But then again, go back to 2015 - Labour took the Lib Dem and UKIP votes for granted. 2010? possibly an argument there - we thought we'd take all of the disaffected vote and didn't.
The public do a good job of scenting that arrogance and smashing it.
Immediatey after Brexit my daughter sent me a piece she wrote about its consequences for her firm's clients. She's a lawyer (yes, I know....) and she dealt with the narrow technical implications, which I found illuminating. One surprising point that I found interesting but at the time seemed irrelevant is that the drafting of the Articles clearly intended to make it easy for countries to stay in the EU. In short, it seems that if a Country that has written an Article 50 letter changes its mind, it merely has to indicate as much and as long as it is not out of time, the whole leaving process comes to a halt.
I am not saying that we will or should do this, but if we do want to change our minds it seems the mechanism is blissfully easy.
That does not seem to be the majority view which is that the service of an Article 50 letter is irrevocable but this is a decision that will ultimately be made by politicians rather than lawyers.
I very much doubt it would be easy. The price for seeking to withdraw such a notice is likely to be revisiting such matters as the UK rebate and possibly some of our opt outs. I would fear for any government which put such a proposal to the British people.
Even if one accepts that it's legally that simple, to do so would require the expenditure of vast political capital which neither party has to spend.
Imagine this was done without a second referendum by a Tory PM; it's split the party asunder, the betrayal / stab in the back narrative would take hold and UKIP would instantly poll 25%.
For a Labour PM (fanciful I know, tory + DUP is good till the current 2 year period expires), he'd have to burn bridges with half of his party base, the working class northern half. It'd condemn Labour to an urban liberal rump that would never govern again.
Brexit will not be stopped, because no potential PM thinks stopping it is worth the price. The country doesn't want to go through another referendum either.
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
But it is in Labour's interests to re-open the split in the right?
Labour would soon discover how much of its own support was on the right....
How George Osborne's robbing the young has come back to hurt the Conservatives:
' The Government has “betrayed a generation of students” after it “quietly put out” a report on one of the busiest days in UK politics in which it has backtracked on a promise it made to students in 2012 regarding their loans.
Students in England who started university in or after 2012 repay nine per cent of everything they earn above £21,000 (pre-tax salary) once they graduate. Yet, now, after launching a consultation, the team at MoneySavingExpert.com said the Conservatives have secretly put its conclusions out during the Autumn Statement, backtracking on this and, effectively, hiking costs retrospectively, despite an overwhelming 95 per cent of the consultaion’s respondents opposing the freeze.
The freeze in the threshold means graduates will now repay more of their cash each month towards the loans and - as many students won’t repay the full amount borrowed within the 30 years before the debt is wiped - also means they will pay more overall as well.
The freezing of the threshold means over two million graduates will end up paying £306 more each year by 2020/21 than they would have done without the change.
MoneySavingExpert.com said, “disgracefully,” the move was not announced by George Osborne in today's speech and, instead, it was “buried on page 126 of the Autumn Statement.” '
I, for one, would be happy to pay more tax so students can get a full grant and pay no tuition fees. I benefited significantly from having access to a full grant at university.
As has been pointed out, having triggered A50 we are leaving the EU if we do nothing - thats now the course we are set on. To not leave takes a lot more effort and with the Tories as divided and wounded as they are and Labour led by shy Lexit fans I don't see how the political capital is created to not leave.
Its not do we leave, but how we leave. And thats always been the question. As a Labour Leave voter the best solution to the UK is also the insurance solution - regain our membership of EFTA. We leave the EU - the specific thing people voted for - but retain our EEA membership thus avoiding catastrophic no deal economic ruin. And a rejuvenated EFTA with us as a member will have some decent negotiating power with the EU. And whats more - as a non-Eurozone EU member leaving the EU and joining EFTA was inevitable. For years a twin track or two speed Europe was talked about. The Euro needs a fiscal union which we would not be part, so a leave vote allows us to define the relationship in our own terms rather than being bundled in to the other non-Eurozone nations as they exit.
Some people won't like keeping freedom of movement. To which the question must be asked - do you want their job? Do you want to look after our elderly in the care home or go pick fruit or work in that factory doing "menial" labour? If you don't then we need migrant Labour. Thats why they came in the forst place, to do the jobs our own people chose not to do. Its all very well the people of Boston whining about bloody foreigners, but unless you're willing to pick fruit yourselves you need them.
I agree with most of this. Reforming welfare rules and obtaining an emergency brake should be enough on migration.
On freedon of movement, the number of eastern europeans moving into my area with children and having babies here who seem to be on benefits to me needs fixing.
Sky News Website- Cabinet meeting scheduled to take place today is not taking place.
Morning all. If that is the case it possibly means word has reached her embattledness that her meeting with the 1922 committee is going to be brutal and she will be gone afterwards. The process of government is already failing. I can see Corbyn being PM within a month and us voting again within 4.
As bad as things are now for the tories, I don't think the next election is all set for Labour.
1) The tories campaign was utter rubbish. Everyone accepts that. It won't be the case next time (hopefully) 2) No one thought labour was going to get into power. People will be looking a lot at their policies next time. 3) May won't be leader.
Those are things to build on and prepare for. It's tough, but it's doable.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
Shadow Home Secretary - he has the same way with numbers as Diane....
How George Osborne's robbing the young has come back to hurt the Conservatives:
' The Government has “betrayed a generation of students” after it “quietly put out” a report on one of the busiest days in UK politics in which it has backtracked on a promise it made to students in 2012 regarding their loans.
Students in England who started university in or after 2012 repay nine per cent of everything they earn above £21,000 (pre-tax salary) once they graduate. Yet, now, after launching a consultation, the team at MoneySavingExpert.com said the Conservatives have secretly put its conclusions out during the Autumn Statement, backtracking on this and, effectively, hiking costs retrospectively, despite an overwhelming 95 per cent of the consultaion’s respondents opposing the freeze.
The freeze in the threshold means graduates will now repay more of their cash each month towards the loans and - as many students won’t repay the full amount borrowed within the 30 years before the debt is wiped - also means they will pay more overall as well.
The freezing of the threshold means over two million graduates will end up paying £306 more each year by 2020/21 than they would have done without the change.
MoneySavingExpert.com said, “disgracefully,” the move was not announced by George Osborne in today's speech and, instead, it was “buried on page 126 of the Autumn Statement.” '
I, for one, would be happy to pay more tax so students can get a full grant and pay no tuition fees. I benefited significantly from having access to a full grant at university.
I'm slightly amused by this thread. When Brexit won, and let's be honest, against the wishes of the posh and metropolitan elite - including the BBC and Parliament - we had a few bitter Remainers asking why we were so suspicious. "Cheer up, you've won," they said. Now you see why we were so suspicious.
The Establishment does not accept a democratic result, it goes along until it can reverse it. This GE was meant to be about Brexit, but it wasn't. It ended up about the manifestos and about the relatively competent Corbyn performance and the totally useless May one. Many Brexit voters voted for Labour but retain their original opinion n Brexit. Of course the self-appointed great and good will paint it their way. This is why we were so suspicious.
The best we can hope for is a Brexit in name only. The slight problem the MPs have is to justify their actions. Muddy the waters, claim they never said or promised things they once said categorically, and hope enough voters have short-term memories. If it hadn't been this election, they would have used something else.
Science to be science, has to predict to show it's correct. This, unfortunately, was all to easy to do with the referendum result. I don't expect my natural cynicism to go away. I became a NOTA after the referendum, expecting this to happen. Voting is a mere camouflage. The media and MPs will always do what they want. Manifestos and referenda are pointless.
Funnily enough, I've returned to the political position I held as a seventeen-year. I've something in common with Jezza after all. But now I'm too old to get upset about it.
I'm wearing two hats here - as a pro-EU (not merely Remainer - I actually like the EU) voter with a lot of familiarity with how it works, and as a Corbynite Labour loyalist.
With the first hat - yes, it'd in practice by perfectly feasible to stay on if talks produce what both sides recognise is no satisfactory outcome. Ultimately the EU is driven by political consensus, and where there's a will there's a way - stopping the clock indefinitely, legal interpretation, whatever. I think the EU would see it as a return to sanity and would be happy to oblige, on condition that we promised not to flounce out again in the next 10 years.
But from the Labour viewpoint I see no big upsides and lots of downsides in leading on this at the moment. Corbyn's view is essentially that membership per se is not the key issue, what matters is the terms of our future relationship: the default is to assume we're leaving, but if so then we need to have customs-free access and protection of labour and environmental rights as well as protection for citizens on both sides. Labour will press on these issues and denounce the government if it slips on them. As for free movement, Corbyn can best be described as intensely relaxed, but persuaded by colleagues that something must be done to appease public concern on unrestricted movement - any mild restrictions would be fine.
If public opinion shifted decisively against leaving or Labour took over Government responsibility, Labour could fairly easily segue into a "This isn't going to work out, let's stay" position. But unless actually in Government, I don't expect us to be leading the charge.
The upsides for Labour are actually significant. And the potential downside of accidentally finding itself in office as Brexit is implemented, or during the immediate aftermath, are massive as well.
But not now, I agree. Wait for the dynamics to change as the government sinks into deeper unpopularity. And then pass the decision on whatever the Tories cook up as the final deal to the people, by way of another referendum.
Labour needs another national vote - any vote - as soon as possible, to confirm the Conservatives' newly won unpopularity. Another EU referendum, at the right time, would serve just fine. Clarke and Soubry etc. will surely be up for it.
And if the alternative is watching the Tories struggle on for up to five years with the DUP, bringing them down (for that is what it would mean) in early 2019 must be hugely tempting?
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
The Tory obsession with UKIP has already done this country huge damage. At some stage the Tories are going to have to start putting the national interest first. If they don't, they will never be forgiven.
How George Osborne's robbing the young has come back to hurt the Conservatives:
' The Government has “betrayed a generation of students” after it “quietly put out” a report on one of the busiest days in UK politics in which it has backtracked on a promise it made to students in 2012 regarding their loans.
Students in England who started university in or after 2012 repay nine per cent of everything they earn above £21,000 (pre-tax salary) once they graduate. Yet, now, after launching a consultation, the team at MoneySavingExpert.com said the Conservatives have secretly put its conclusions out during the Autumn Statement, backtracking on this and, effectively, hiking costs retrospectively, despite an overwhelming 95 per cent of the consultaion’s respondents opposing the freeze.
The freeze in the threshold means graduates will now repay more of their cash each month towards the loans and - as many students won’t repay the full amount borrowed within the 30 years before the debt is wiped - also means they will pay more overall as well.
The freezing of the threshold means over two million graduates will end up paying £306 more each year by 2020/21 than they would have done without the change.
MoneySavingExpert.com said, “disgracefully,” the move was not announced by George Osborne in today's speech and, instead, it was “buried on page 126 of the Autumn Statement.” '
I, for one, would be happy to pay more tax so students can get a full grant and pay no tuition fees. I benefited significantly from having access to a full grant at university.
I've already paid fees. So, no.
I can see you gained no benefit from your education .... so please feel free to opt out!
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
May lost seats, Corbyn won seats. Thus, he got more seats than May :-)
The last thing Jezza will do is renege on Brexit. It is a dream come true for him.
He sees the EU as a capitalist imperialist plot. So he will say he wants to leave by which he means ditch all the free market and completion stuff, and keep the power to the workers stuff.
The thing that amazed me in this election is the number of 'swing seats' we now have. There must be hundreds where majorities on both sides are less than 4000.
@PolhomeEditor: Humphreys: Corbyn rock solid safe now? Chuka: Absolutely. JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories. Chuka: And he's done that.
It's a good piece. Brexit not happening is highly unlikely but not impossible. It just needs the polls to turn substantially in the next 12 to 15 months.
No, it needs much more than that - for a start, it needs the EU27 to be happy for us to revoke A50 and/or to agree a readmission deal.
I'm wearing two hats here - as a pro-EU (not merely Remainer - I actually like the EU) voter with a lot of familiarity with how it works, and as a Corbynite Labour loyalist.
With the first hat - yes, it'd in practice by perfectly feasible to stay on if talks produce what both sides recognise is no satisfactory outcome. Ultimately the EU is driven by political consensus, and where there's a will there's a way - stopping the clock indefinitely, legal interpretation, whatever. I think the EU would see it as a return to sanity and would be happy to oblige, on condition that we promised not to flounce out again in the next 10 years.
But from the Labour viewpoint I see no big upsides and lots of downsides in leading on this at the moment. Corbyn's view is essentially that membership per se is not the key issue, what matters is the terms of our future relationship: the default is to assume we're leaving, but if so then we need to have customs-free access and protection of labour and environmental rights as well as protection for citizens on both sides. Labour will press on these issues and denounce the government if it slips on them. As for free movement, Corbyn can best be described as intensely relaxed, but persuaded by colleagues that something must be done to appease public concern on unrestricted movement - any mild restrictions would be fine.
If public opinion shifted decisively against leaving or Labour took over Government responsibility, Labour could fairly easily segue into a "This isn't going to work out, let's stay" position. But unless actually in Government, I don't expect us to be leading the charge.
Yep - sounds about right. However, it is not what McDonnell is saying. And that is a problem. He needs to be reined in on this as he is clearly not reflecting Labour policy or, more important, the views of Labour members. As you say, being in the Single Market in and of itself is not the key issue, it's what we replace it with that matters.
Like YellowSubmarine says, Brexit is now the default course. It got its mandate via a referendum and really can only be taken away via another one.
Neither major party has any desire to go to the country again on this, there's no political upside for either one. All all truth, they've accepted it and moves on to the details.
Indeed. Really, it should now be an EEA-type deal, the referendum means there's no mandate for anything less but the GE means there's no mandate for anything more.
The only problem is, that requires the EU to take notice of a democratic mandate for the first time in its history.
I don't see politically how you go from 500+ MP's elected on a hard brexit platform, to remaining in the EU. Even in these revolutionary times.
It is more likely that we end up with a different approach to Brexit. The point about the election is that Brexit is that it turns out that it is one issue of many for people, it is not the only issue.
Calling the referendum without any preparatory work on what a leave vote would mean was an absolute, profound, disaster. Party before country. Cameron and May are going to go down as the worst prime ministers in history.
I think one just has to understand that everything is provisional and contingent during these kafkaesque times. Yes, both parties stood on a hard Brexit platform but both parties are Remain parties. There are two opposite forces pulling both parties apart. It's hard to say which party is in the worse position. The Tories are _relatively_ relaxed about Brexit (There are obviously plenty of people in the party who think it's madness but there's a stoical belief that Britain will find a sufficiently strong solution) but now know that it's stirred up the anti-Tory forces, suddenly making it unlikely that they'll win the next couple of elections. Labour are split between Corbyn - who's been responsible for their success - and almost everyone else, and if/when they do get into power it's going to be messy.
At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
Probably - but I wasn't that far out on my other predictions, 2 seats and 777 votes would have seen me right on everything. I was however assuming that no matter how bad things were there would be a Tory majority of 50 and more realistically well over 100. I thought W&L would fall at about 90. If it fell at a less number then James had done well. If it didn't fall at over 90 then we had done badly. In fact it would have fallen between 0 and 10 - that was a fantastic result.
I was surprised by the Tory national campaign and with hindsight I should have seen that coming. The weird thing is the help from CCHQ here in Westmorland was excellent - how was the national campaign so bad.
Interesting article and comments. If I could mention that the Great British Public don't really have any interest in the internal philosophies of any political party. What they like is competence, honesty and sincerity amongst others.
Any general in a war, picks the reasons for a battle, the ground, the tactics, the subordinate officers to control and enforce the plans and be able to react to the enemies tactics.
May took the chance to destroy the Labour Party, no if's, no but's, that was the prime objective. She failed and in the process took a significant hit in her own support while strengthening her enemies.
The general view of the GBP is that she lost and lost miserably. Even in this forum, there is a majority who do not believe that May will still be leading the Tories in the very short term, and another GE soon. She underestimated her enemy and overestimated her capability, and that of her "army".
Minority governments can work, as we have proven in Scotland. The first SNP administration had the SCON's providing a un-acknowledged Confidence and Supply agreement, an assembly /parliament who co-operated mostly with a sense of goodwill, and most importantly a sense of cohesion within the SNP. Even, in the present government at Holyrood, there has been a consensus of the sorts up until now.
I think the gloves are coming off and it's going to be viscous. Sturgeon made a bad tactical error of judgement in relating a private conversation with a political opponent, to score a political point in a hustings. Leaders need to be trusted, not just by their own followers, but also by their opponents. If they are not, it leads to a lot of metaphorical blood being shed.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
given that turnout was only up 2 % ish, then the surge had to be complemented by lack of turnout elsewhere and, as noted in the link, was split.
fine margins - but still a royal fuckup.
I'm quite angry, still, as that is solely down to one or two policies that could have been left for another day. There's three or four things that most annoy me but broadly its the Ed Miliband policies in that manifesto that really burn away.
Also - sorry, Justin124, a cooler, wiser head than mine. Hope you're sleeping in a bed made of crisp fivers.
I am absolutely furious. But it's happened and there is precisely nothing we can do about it.
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
Many in the EU would not have the UK back anyway as they know soon enough the same whinging would start all over again. Young voters will never vote Tory, the best that can be hoped for is to make inroads into the youth vote
How George Osborne's robbing the young has come back to hurt the Conservatives:
' The Government has “betrayed a generation of students” after it “quietly put out” a report on one of the busiest days in UK politics in which it has backtracked on a promise it made to students in 2012 regarding their loans.
Students in England who started university in or after 2012 repay nine per cent of everything they earn above £21,000 (pre-tax salary) once they graduate. Yet, now, after launching a consultation, the team at MoneySavingExpert.com said the Conservatives have secretly put its conclusions out during the Autumn Statement, backtracking on this and, effectively, hiking costs retrospectively, despite an overwhelming 95 per cent of the consultaion’s respondents opposing the freeze.
The freeze in the threshold means graduates will now repay more of their cash each month towards the loans and - as many students won’t repay the full amount borrowed within the 30 years before the debt is wiped - also means they will pay more overall as well.
The freezing of the threshold means over two million graduates will end up paying £306 more each year by 2020/21 than they would have done without the change.
MoneySavingExpert.com said, “disgracefully,” the move was not announced by George Osborne in today's speech and, instead, it was “buried on page 126 of the Autumn Statement.” '
I, for one, would be happy to pay more tax so students can get a full grant and pay no tuition fees. I benefited significantly from having access to a full grant at university.
I've already paid fees. So, no.
I can see you gained no benefit from your education .... so please feel free to opt out!
I speak as someone who has put his children through private education. Should everyone have to pay to get a good education always assuming they have the ability?
How George Osborne's robbing the young has come back to hurt the Conservatives:
' The Government has “betrayed a generation of students” after it “quietly put out” a report on one of the busiest days in UK politics in which it has backtracked on a promise it made to students in 2012 regarding their loans.
Students in England who started university in or after 2012 repay nine per cent of everything they earn above £21,000 (pre-tax salary) once they graduate. Yet, now, after launching a consultation, the team at MoneySavingExpert.com said the Conservatives have secretly put its conclusions out during the Autumn Statement, backtracking on this and, effectively, hiking costs retrospectively, despite an overwhelming 95 per cent of the consultaion’s respondents opposing the freeze.
The freeze in the threshold means graduates will now repay more of their cash each month towards the loans and - as many students won’t repay the full amount borrowed within the 30 years before the debt is wiped - also means they will pay more overall as well.
The freezing of the threshold means over two million graduates will end up paying £306 more each year by 2020/21 than they would have done without the change.
MoneySavingExpert.com said, “disgracefully,” the move was not announced by George Osborne in today's speech and, instead, it was “buried on page 126 of the Autumn Statement.” '
I, for one, would be happy to pay more tax so students can get a full grant and pay no tuition fees. I benefited significantly from having access to a full grant at university.
I've already paid fees. So, no.
You'd need to reduce numbers to do that, which is fine - apprenticeships are already doing the job. When it is back down to late-80s figures, it'll be affordable again.
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
Technical question: Let's say for the sake of argument that the UK has a government that's able to survive no-confidence votes, but it isn't able to get EU-related legislation through. What happens then? Presumably a lot of UK legislation is written on the premise that Britain is a member of the EU, but Article 50 has already been invoked, so Britain seems to be leaving unless somebody actively does something to stop it happening?
So if parliament is basically disfunctional, is it correct to say that the default outcome is car-crash Brexit, with added confusion?
Yes.
You've clearly highlighted one of the structural faultlines running through the Conservative Crackpot Coalition of Chaos.There are about 50/60 hardline BREXIT Con MP, a vast swath of pragmatic BREXITeers and about 20 remainiacs. Added to which there are the 13 SCON's who want as much access to the single market as possible. And then there is the DUP BREXIT and the open border with the south.
A wishful thinking wankfest thread today, it seems. Seems the norm here now,
Laters. Work to do.
Not so different then to the endless threads debating whether the Tories could get a 200 seat majority, or whether Labour could sink below 20% of the vote and how TP was going to win Don Valley.
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
Many in the EU would not have the UK back anyway ad they know soon enough the same whinging would start all over again. Young voters will never vote Tory, the best that can be hoped for is to make inroads into the youth vote
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
They are being very cruel to Mrs May. She has no power. She knows it, they know it. She is there until they decide what should happen next. Labour should be under no illusions that the Tories will find a way back from here. They always do.
given that turnout was only up 2 % ish, then the surge had to be complemented by lack of turnout elsewhere and, as noted in the link, was split.
fine margins - but still a royal fuckup.
I'm quite angry, still, as that is solely down to one or two policies that could have been left for another day. There's three or four things that most annoy me but broadly its the Ed Miliband policies in that manifesto that really burn away.
Also - sorry, Justin124, a cooler, wiser head than mine. Hope you're sleeping in a bed made of crisp fivers.
I am absolutely furious. But it's happened and there is precisely nothing we can do about it.
So, it seems the LSE concur with us on here on PB who, within seconds of May announcing the Dementia Tax as the heart of her manifesto, were posting that this was an f-ing disaster that could well cost her the election.
The numbers are starting to come in to back our gut feelings.
A good article. One thing to throw into the mix is that although the polls indicate that there has been no great shift towards Remain, there has certainly been a great shift in the likelihood of younger voters to vote. It is likely that this has not been taken into consideration in the polls.
If they had voted in larger numbers in the Referendum, as they did last Thursday, it is likely that the result may well have swung the other way.
Now they have got themselves registered to vote in larger numbers, found their way to the polling stations and have discovered that their votes CAN change things, I would expect the youth to be a lot more influential in stopping Brexit if we were to ever be in the situation where we had another vote on the subject.
Turnout overall was even higher in the Referendum than on Thursday, so I imagine that working class voters would still carry it for Leave.
I am not sure either of the main parties is going to survive Brexit long term. It really is a party killer. At the moment it looks more likely to destroy the tories but the hard left aversion to the European social model will also be massive problem.
Look at Macron and he did not even need Brexit to galvanise a new movement.
I think sentiment has moved decidedly against a hard Brexit but there is no guarantee that we will now be offered anything but a hard Brexit. We didn't hold many cards before and Mrs May has chucked away the few we had.
My money is on an expedient second referendum in a couple of years time to dig us out of an impasse.
How George Osborne's robbing the young has come back to hurt the Conservatives:
' The Government has “betrayed a generation of students” after it “quietly put out” a report on one of the busiest days in UK politics in which it has backtracked on a promise it made to students in 2012 regarding their loans.
Students in England who started university in or after 2012 repay nine per cent of everything they earn above £21,000 (pre-tax salary) once they graduate. Yet, now, after launching a consultation, the team at MoneySavingExpert.com said the Conservatives have secretly put its conclusions out during the Autumn Statement, backtracking on this and, effectively, hiking costs retrospectively, despite an overwhelming 95 per cent of the consultaion’s respondents opposing the freeze.
The freeze in the threshold means graduates will now repay more of their cash each month towards the loans and - as many students won’t repay the full amount borrowed within the 30 years before the debt is wiped - also means they will pay more overall as well.
The freezing of the threshold means over two million graduates will end up paying £306 more each year by 2020/21 than they would have done without the change.
MoneySavingExpert.com said, “disgracefully,” the move was not announced by George Osborne in today's speech and, instead, it was “buried on page 126 of the Autumn Statement.” '
Compare the reaction to the proposed NI changes for the self-employed - Conservative MPs furious, media furious, immediate U-turn - to the non-reaction to graduates having to pay an extra £306 per year.
Is it any wonder that the young voted massively for a man who chose to take their side.
Technical question: Let's say for the sake of argument that the UK has a government that's able to survive no-confidence votes, but it isn't able to get EU-related legislation through. What happens then? Presumably a lot of UK legislation is written on the premise that Britain is a member of the EU, but Article 50 has already been invoked, so Britain seems to be leaving unless somebody actively does something to stop it happening?
So if parliament is basically disfunctional, is it correct to say that the default outcome is car-crash Brexit, with added confusion?
Correct. Which is why the Conservatives need to implement Brexit in consensus with Labour. Labour can stop the government doing something it doesn't like but will pin the blame on the Conservatives for anything that goes wrong. Not great from the Conservatives POV, but I don't think we need to be sorry for them.
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
As bad as things are now for the tories, I don't think the next election is all set for Labour.
1) The tories campaign was utter rubbish. Everyone accepts that. It won't be the case next time (hopefully) 2) No one thought labour was going to get into power. People will be looking a lot at their policies next time. 3) May won't be leader.
Those are things to build on and prepare for. It's tough, but it's doable.
Public opinion is both changeable and unpredictable.
My advice to the Conservatives is:-
1. Keep calm and carry on, 2. Don't form a circular firing squad, 3. Show some humility, 4. Don't throw in the towel.
"Voters seem resigned to the fact that they were duped by promises of a Brexit dividend of more cash for the National Health Service. No one has prepared them for the scale of the hardship they will endure in its name."
Brexit is causing staff shortages in the NHS already.
I am starting to feel encouraged. Should the Tories take us down the hard BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it. Should we go down the soft BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it! The Tory party is fcuked no matter what they do!
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
I am starting to feel encouraged. Should the Tories take us down the hard BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it. Should we go down the soft BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it! The Tory party is fcuked no matter what they do!
Labour are in no position to benefit though
The country is fucked (by Brexit), no matter what we do
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
Many in the EU would not have the UK back anyway ad they know soon enough the same whinging would start all over again. Young voters will never vote Tory, the best that can be hoped for is to make inroads into the youth vote
I've said before Brexit will kill off the NHS as a fully funded service.
When it all starts to go badly wrong those who voted to Leave will change their minds. A 2nd referendum has to be in play to save the country from its self. The LibDems are right.
I am starting to feel encouraged. Should the Tories take us down the hard BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it. Should we go down the soft BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it! The Tory party is fcuked no matter what they do!
Labour are in no position to benefit though
The country is fucked (by Brexit), no matter what we do
Two party politics is alive and well in the UK. And both main parties are doing just fine.
Labour is somewhat resurgent but is still led by a now unassailable Corbyn. Corbyn is still Corbyn and toxic to many. You'd think they had just won an election! I don't think 2022 (or sooner) is a walkover. They might well win next time but you can't count on it.
The Tories have just screwed up a GE. Actually, no, the PM has just screwed up a GE. The manifesto, the Miliband-lite nonsense, the hubris, the inarticulacy, the roboticism. It was her. And yet they still got 43%. The core Tory brand is in fine health. They just need to ditch the succubus at an opportune moment and rediscover some senisble policies.
Next GE completely open to play for. (But only for the Tories if she's gone well ahead of time).
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
"To be fair, the word "get" does seem to have changed its meaning"
Chuka is perhaps more like Humpty Dumpty ... ""When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean- neither more nor less."
Comments
Such an offensive thing to say.
So insulting to the dead.
The dynamics that have changed are, firstly, that the authority of the 2016 vote is weakened by the 2017 vote, secondly, that the Commons has tilted further toward Remain (and with a bloc of Scottish Tories complicating the picture), and, thirdly, that Labour now faces not indefinite opposition but is favourite for a spell in office, possibly quite soon. Going along with A50 when the Tories were expected to carry the can is VERY different from either implementing Brexit themselves or finding themselves responsible for the immediate aftermath.
Labour MPs don't believe in Brexit, and whilst they might have let the Tories see it through, they will not want to be the ones left carrying this ticking parcel when the music stops.
There is not, as yet, a clear path towards the death of Brexit - but the fact that a majority wish it ill clearly points towards there being no guarantee that it will not die.
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/ge2017-only-the-bookies-won
Chuka: Absolutely.
JH: You said his job was to get more seats than Tories.
Chuka: And he's done that.
So I don't understand why people think anything in the Vienna Convention could negate the explicit provision in Article 50 for the UK automatically to cease to be a member of the EU two years after Article 50 was invoked. Even if all the other EU members were signatories of the Vienna Convention, which they aren't.
https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/12/six-reasons-why-the-dup-must-be-considered-on-its-merits-rather-than-its-faults/
I don't want to get involved at those sort of prices for something that might be months or years away.
Looking ahead to Azerbaijan, there are three things worth considering:
Bottas to win (each way), Perez win (each way), making sure you have a good book.
CCCC - Day 4 - 0845 -
The Jacobite News Network understands that the DUP have "requested" that Arlene Foster replace Donald Trump for a state visit and also to invite the Queen for a reciprocal visit to Ulster, take the salute during the Orange Order marching season, pay her respects at the shrine of Reverend Ian Paisley and cut the ribbon of the new UK stated funded Museum of Homosexual Eternal Damnation in Antrim.
Developing story ....
fine margins - but still a royal fuckup.
I'm quite angry, still, as that is solely down to one or two policies that could have been left for another day. There's three or four things that most annoy me but broadly its the Ed Miliband policies in that manifesto that really burn away.
Also - sorry, Justin124, a cooler, wiser head than mine. Hope you're sleeping in a bed made of crisp fivers.
So if parliament is basically disfunctional, is it correct to say that the default outcome is car-crash Brexit, with added confusion?
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/canada-post-race-analysis-2017.html
don't take your vote for granted <-- in bold, underlined.
The Tories did in three places:
1. The youth won't turn out - my hunch is that while up, it is still lower than the other cohorts but they did.
2. The oldies will turn out - they didn't and if they did, they were split
3. CON + UKIP > LAB - turned into CON + 0.5 UKIP < LAB + 0.5 UKIP
But then again, go back to 2015 - Labour took the Lib Dem and UKIP votes for granted. 2010? possibly an argument there - we thought we'd take all of the disaffected vote and didn't.
The public do a good job of scenting that arrogance and smashing it.
Imagine this was done without a second referendum by a Tory PM; it's split the party asunder, the betrayal / stab in the back narrative would take hold and UKIP would instantly poll 25%.
For a Labour PM (fanciful I know, tory + DUP is good till the current 2 year period expires), he'd have to burn bridges with half of his party base, the working class northern half. It'd condemn Labour to an urban liberal rump that would never govern again.
Brexit will not be stopped, because no potential PM thinks stopping it is worth the price. The country doesn't want to go through another referendum either.
If that is the case it possibly means word has reached her embattledness that her meeting with the 1922 committee is going to be brutal and she will be gone afterwards. The process of government is already failing. I can see Corbyn being PM within a month and us voting again within 4.
1) The tories campaign was utter rubbish. Everyone accepts that. It won't be the case next time (hopefully)
2) No one thought labour was going to get into power. People will be looking a lot at their policies next time.
3) May won't be leader.
Those are things to build on and prepare for. It's tough, but it's doable.
Shadow Home Secretary - he has the same way with numbers as Diane....
I'm slightly amused by this thread. When Brexit won, and let's be honest, against the wishes of the posh and metropolitan elite - including the BBC and Parliament - we had a few bitter Remainers asking why we were so suspicious. "Cheer up, you've won," they said. Now you see why we were so suspicious.
The Establishment does not accept a democratic result, it goes along until it can reverse it. This GE was meant to be about Brexit, but it wasn't. It ended up about the manifestos and about the relatively competent Corbyn performance and the totally useless May one. Many Brexit voters voted for Labour but retain their original opinion n Brexit. Of course the self-appointed great and good will paint it their way. This is why we were so suspicious.
The best we can hope for is a Brexit in name only. The slight problem the MPs have is to justify their actions. Muddy the waters, claim they never said or promised things they once said categorically, and hope enough voters have short-term memories. If it hadn't been this election, they would have used something else.
Science to be science, has to predict to show it's correct. This, unfortunately, was all to easy to do with the referendum result. I don't expect my natural cynicism to go away. I became a NOTA after the referendum, expecting this to happen. Voting is a mere camouflage. The media and MPs will always do what they want. Manifestos and referenda are pointless.
Funnily enough, I've returned to the political position I held as a seventeen-year. I've something in common with Jezza after all. But now I'm too old to get upset about it.
But not now, I agree. Wait for the dynamics to change as the government sinks into deeper unpopularity. And then pass the decision on whatever the Tories cook up as the final deal to the people, by way of another referendum.
Labour needs another national vote - any vote - as soon as possible, to confirm the Conservatives' newly won unpopularity. Another EU referendum, at the right time, would serve just fine. Clarke and Soubry etc. will surely be up for it.
And if the alternative is watching the Tories struggle on for up to five years with the DUP, bringing them down (for that is what it would mean) in early 2019 must be hugely tempting?
He sees the EU as a capitalist imperialist plot. So he will say he wants to leave by which he means ditch all the free market and completion stuff, and keep the power to the workers stuff.
The only problem is, that requires the EU to take notice of a democratic mandate for the first time in its history.
Brexit was a trap.
Chuka said 'to GET more seats', not 'to GAIN more seats.' Where is George Orwell when you need him?
I was surprised by the Tory national campaign and with hindsight I should have seen that coming. The weird thing is the help from CCHQ here in Westmorland was excellent - how was the national campaign so bad.
Any general in a war, picks the reasons for a battle, the ground, the tactics, the subordinate officers to control and enforce the plans and be able to react to the enemies tactics.
May took the chance to destroy the Labour Party, no if's, no but's, that was the prime objective. She failed and in the process took a significant hit in her own support while strengthening her enemies.
The general view of the GBP is that she lost and lost miserably. Even in this forum, there is a majority who do not believe that May will still be leading the Tories in the very short term, and another GE soon. She underestimated her enemy and overestimated her capability, and that of her "army".
Minority governments can work, as we have proven in Scotland. The first SNP administration had the SCON's providing a un-acknowledged Confidence and Supply agreement, an assembly /parliament who co-operated mostly with a sense of goodwill, and most importantly a sense of cohesion within the SNP. Even, in the present government at Holyrood, there has been a consensus of the sorts up until now.
I think the gloves are coming off and it's going to be viscous. Sturgeon made a bad tactical error of judgement in relating a private conversation with a political opponent, to score a political point in a hustings. Leaders need to be trusted, not just by their own followers, but also by their opponents. If they are not, it leads to a lot of metaphorical blood being shed.
You've clearly highlighted one of the structural faultlines running through the Conservative Crackpot Coalition of Chaos.There are about 50/60 hardline BREXIT Con MP, a vast swath of pragmatic BREXITeers and about 20 remainiacs. Added to which there are the 13 SCON's who want as much access to the single market as possible. And then there is the DUP BREXIT and the open border with the south.
Messy Central.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21723191-conservatives-botched-campaign-will-bring-chaosand-opportunities-theresa-mays-failed-gamble
- Chuka has said he is willing to serve in Shadow Cabinet!
- Flint - one twitter comment disagreeing with Yvette, really? That isn't even about Corbyn's leadership.
- haven't heard much from John Woodcock at all. Only really heard Leslie complaining.
The numbers are starting to come in to back our gut feelings.
Look at Macron and he did not even need Brexit to galvanise a new movement.
My money is on an expedient second referendum in a couple of years time to dig us out of an impasse.
Compare the reaction to the proposed NI changes for the self-employed - Conservative MPs furious, media furious, immediate U-turn - to the non-reaction to graduates having to pay an extra £306 per year.
Is it any wonder that the young voted massively for a man who chose to take their side.
Who speaks like that?
.....
Bloody modernism.
"Forsooth, my good man, mine throat is parched and in pressing need of refreshment. Bring me mine coffee, and be quick about it!"
That's surely how we all order coffee?
My advice to the Conservatives is:-
1. Keep calm and carry on,
2. Don't form a circular firing squad,
3. Show some humility,
4. Don't throw in the towel.
The country is fucked (by Brexit), no matter what we do
I've said before Brexit will kill off the NHS as a fully funded service.
When it all starts to go badly wrong those who voted to Leave will change their minds. A 2nd referendum has to be in play to save the country from its self. The LibDems are right.
Isn't that what David Cameron got?
[ducks]
Labour is somewhat resurgent but is still led by a now unassailable Corbyn. Corbyn is still Corbyn and toxic to many. You'd think they had just won an election! I don't think 2022 (or sooner) is a walkover. They might well win next time but you can't count on it.
The Tories have just screwed up a GE. Actually, no, the PM has just screwed up a GE. The manifesto, the Miliband-lite nonsense, the hubris, the inarticulacy, the roboticism. It was her. And yet they still got 43%. The core Tory brand is in fine health. They just need to ditch the succubus at an opportune moment and rediscover some senisble policies.
Next GE completely open to play for. (But only for the Tories if she's gone well ahead of time).
The EUR64,000 question, and the one that will occupy UK politics for the next two years, IMO, is how people perceive EEA/EFTA membership.
Arguments (all of them ofc made on here over the past two years) that it is and that it isn't leaving.
Wherever consensus falls determines the nature of our Brexit.
"To be fair, the word "get" does seem to have changed its meaning"
Chuka is perhaps more like Humpty Dumpty ... ""When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean- neither more nor less."