politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Tory MPs must stop the Tory DUP deal from happening
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Tory MPs must stop the Tory DUP deal from happening
Tory MPs tell BuzzFeed their inboxes are full of complaints from constituents about the DUP's gay rights record. https://t.co/igAMRsBLy4 pic.twitter.com/D1bAblrMdG
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The electorate wont welcome its having so much influence on the party that won a previous election on the back of scare stories about the Scots?
Many darkly joke that it is Mrs May who has ended up inflicting a “coalition of chaos” on the country. It may be closer to the mark to suggest that we will be governed by a coalition of paralysis.
Britain has a zombie prime minister.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/11/theresa-may-election-leadership-living-dead-no-power
They should bring Sinn Fein into the deal as well.
The problem with a leadership election is firstly that it will be divisive which isn't a good idea when you have so few votes to play with and secondly the result it'll throw up will almost certainly be catastrophic.
That is to say Boris is almost sure to win.
That is the person who is more responsible for this mess than Theresa herself. She was just incompetent. He was malevolent. He makes Iago seem like a mischievous little tinker. You'd suffer a no confidence vote within weeks.
Mps crossing the floor would make the HoC look like Timpsons.
I'm afraid you've got to make this arrangement work
PB deserves better than this.
It would be fair to ask Tim Farron a couple of questions about his stance.
It's incredible.
Anecdote Alert - Mrs JackW was a lady who lunched yesterday, with like minded small "c" conservative ladies. To my mind the "Axis of Evil Shoe-Buyers Alliance". She advised me that a peripheral discussion took place about the CCCC. Two of the ladies have close gay relatives and they were scathing about the prospect of the CCCC.
Meanwhile they have an obvious role in championing the path away from hard Brexit and helping Labour to rediscover its better sense on the EU issue. Being on the fence suited Labour very well in this election - contrary to most expectations including mine - but it is an unsustainable position for the next government in waiting to maintain.
Meanwhile we can return to enjoying seeing Conservatives lose Council by-elections every Thursday night; always the highlight of the PB'er's week.
This is the sort of thinking and excuse-making that comes back to bite you on the backside. As the Conservatives have just discovered.
Farron didn't make much of an impact during the election and most of it - not all - from people I spoke to was negative. The Andrew Neil interview was mentioned by many as very poor.
Delighted that the number of MPs went up due to hard fought ground wars in a few constituencies but where were second places?
We don't need a new leader yet - but think Farron should go in about 6 months.
https://tinyurl.com/hqwjq3w
I've taken the 18 to 24 year old figure as I'd imagine they're a bit more likely to be open about it, but anyway that would translate to something like 21 MPs. So to get 45 MPs I'd suggest they're doing well.
Not that it should matter, of course.
Read what people were predicting on here: most (with the exception of some like RCS) were predicting fewer seats or even essentially a wipeout. It did not occur.
As I said in about 2012: Farron's the person to rebuild the party. He isn't the person to lead them into a GE. Sadly a GE was called early, but he did more than wipe his face.
But looking to the future, there are opportunities. What the Lib Dems do next depends on whether there's going to be another election in the next two years. If there is, Farron should stand down with his head held high and remain working in the background (back to president, where he can continue working behind the scenes?)
I'd also look to try to appeal to Conservative and Labour MPs who might be fed up with their party's current position and leaders.
There is another positive: the Lib Dems got swamped in the media by not just Conservative and Labour, but UKIP and the SNP. With those two parties on the decline, it may be possible for the Lib Dems to gain more prominence. But they need better positioning.
But that's not the issue. The issue here is that Theresa May called this election looking for an increased majority. She has to go and I really think we need another election. And if that means Labour get in, so be it.
There is literally no other available combination of parties that produces a government with any stability. Dealing with the DUP is Hobson's choice. But the Conservatives should be doing so with a long spoon rather than enthusiasm. Just as if they'd had to deal with UKIP.
Am off out now to buy the papers and if I read anything in them half as good as what our two PBers wrote, they'll be well worth the price.
Thanks lads. PB just gets better and better.
Agreed that the present system is pretty toxic. Perhaps the system should instead be funded through an actual graduate tax? An extra 0.5/1p on income tax for graduates. You lose some money because people leave the country, but you can keep collecting the tax for life so you'll make more from the top taxpayers.
One young shop assistant said: "It's terrible the way they slandered Corbyn."
She was probably born after the end of the troubles. If many people feel that way, then it'll explain why the Conservative attacks didn't work.
It'll be Major's troubles in 1992-7 all over again. The 2010 coalition survived because there were two sensible adults at the top and they had a comfortable cushion of seats. May's obviously incompetent and the combination simply don't have enough seats for the long term.
The Conservatives need to call another GE; either before or after defenestrating May (though both of those have problems, and none of the possible replacements appeal).
And if we get a Labour government, so be it. That's democracy.
1. The perception of competence is crucial for the Tories: many Labour voters are prepared to take a risk to get a better society, but most Tories see "strong and stable government" as fundamental and non-negotiable. I don't think I'm being partisan when I say that Mrs May does not exude strength, stability or competence. The "oops, wrong press release!" story is just the latest example. She appears fundamentally out of her depth.
2. The DUP don't feel as weird and alien in the Ulster context as they do to most of us. It's a tough environment which has recently emerged from a low-level civil war: lots of people have said and done things that don't bear close scrutiny. That's why the apparently bizarre Good Friday deal with Sinn Fein was possible - the fact that you're working with someone whose associates once tried to kill you is not a good start, but not the total no-no that it would be in England. And the DUP MPs are mostly pleasant at a personal level.
3. That said, it IS alien to the British environment. If people were dubious about a Labour alliance with the SNP, they will see a Government in hock to Ulster fundamentalists as fundamentally unsound. After the first unpopular decision (every government needs to take them sometimes) passed by a majority of 10 with DUP votes, the backlash will be severe, and the Lords will bounce it back with enthusiasm. (Salisbury convention? But it wasn't in the DUP manifesto...)
4. The least bad option for May would be to run a minority government, challenge the Commons to vote down some pleasant measures, wait until they do vote something down, then say "Sorry, but this can't go on" and call an election asking for a majority. It probably wouldn't work but it's better than being seen to be dependent on the DUP.
5. If Cable's comment is a prelude to a medium term warming of relations with the Tories and ultimately a Con-LibDem agreement, it will simply tie them into the horror story.
I'd go for a graduate job tax. I know a very clever guy who did history at Southampton and he works in Morrisons (nothing wrong with that, btw). I don't think it would be fair to make those who go to university pay if they don't get a job that requires them to have been to university. Ultimately, there just aren't enough graduate jobs out there.
Why should I as a graduate pay for other graduates who spent years getting pointless degrees because there was never any incentive for them to do anything else?
The 9k per year fees are what is the problem, as is the fact that you cannot trust the tories not to tweak the rules about how the debt is paid back (see for instance the obsession they had with privatising student debt).
Labours policy is insane and defies economic logic, but in that regard is no different to the various bungs the tories have given to first time buyers (help to buy) and pensioners (triple lock etc)
Having politicians from the 6 counties closely associated with the UK government during the Brexit process may assist in achieving a better arrangement with the ROI which is within the EU. May has seemed tone-deaf so far regarding the concerns of the 6 counties on both sides of the divide. Until 1973, the Tories were closely linked with the main Unionist party and it is not wrong in principle to resuscitate such links. By contrast, a link between the SNP and Labour would be dangerous and wrong, because the SNP (like SF) are dedicated to destroying the UK.
PS: Timpson junior was dispatched by the residents of Crewe & Nantwich last Thursday.
I want what's good for the country. If the Conservatives were to win a bigger majority, fair enough. But I see a Labour government under Corbyn - especially one with a creakingly small majority - to be better for the country than five years of chaos under this unholy coalition.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/10/labour-sweeps-middle-england-reading-east-something-remarkable-happening
No one, not even the Tories are daft enough to let her within 100 miles of producing another manifesto!
"The least bad option for May would be to run a minority government, challenge the Commons to vote down some pleasant measures, wait until they do vote something down, then say "Sorry, but this can't go on" and call an election asking for a majority."
Sound advice. Jezza would love to have a chance at getting into Downing Street - he'd do exactly the same. Front-load all the sweeties and take the first chance available to reluctantly call an election while they're fresh in mind. He'll also have taken the opportunity to talk tough on terrorism.
The Grey Mist cannot stay because she has no good moves left. If she only passed sweetie bills, it will be clearly a blatant vote-seeking move and a total about-face. Trying to pass awkward legislation would be automatic suicide. She's now as useful as a leaky condom.
Put her out of her misery. The Grey Queen has been checkmated.
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It is not my preferred way forward for the 6 counties, because I am in favour of Irish re-unification (and Scottish independence).
Agree with the threadstarter.
Then again, given I tipped Vettel for pole perhaps I should lay off criticising silly decisions. Will set about writing the pre-race nonsense now (the race start is 7pm).
The problem for the DUP is that any agreement depends upon the personal commitment and trust between the leaders on both sides. But what trust can the DUP have that their goodies will arrive, when the person on the other end of the handshake faces looming departure? And very little political capital to deliver anything meanwhile - a handful of Tory rebels and any DUP-inspired proposals simply get voted down.
And if Corbyn doesn't compromise, which does tend to go against his nature, then his economics will get a lot more scrutiny in anoter election.
The Conservatives need to put this awful, incompetent woman out to pasture and have a leadership election.
She the second WORST PM of the post-war period, probably on being beaten by Anthony Eden.
Does it very well, too.
Labour increased its share from 30% to 40% - way ahead of Blair's achievement in 2005 when he achieved a 35% share and an overall majority of 60. This extraordinary performance has some further upside and very little downside.
The Conservative Party, on the other hand, increased its share from 37% to 42% entirely because of the collapse of the UKIP vote from 13% to 2%. Without the UKIP vote, the Tories would have actually lost share.
A hard Brexit now seems improbable. The consequence is that the Tories are going to lose UKIP support so their share is going to drop significantly, - not counting the drop caused by mainstream Tories losing confidence in their party and its leader. There is only downside for them.
A Labour overall majority at the next election is nailed on.
It is in the national interest that there is cross party cooperation on a soft brexit and no early general election. But it is in the Labour Party's interest that there is an early general election.
Will the Labour Party put the national interest first? Or will they, like the Tories, put party interest first and not cooperate. This will be a test of Corbyn's character. (I know what McDonnell would do.)
Other than that, I think Alistair Meeks is correct.
We will also have some idea of how Brexit is progressing...
Going in with the DUP pisses off their rising star in the north, the queen over the sea, Ruth Davidson and takes their public image backwards.
Minority or nothing.
We've elected 600+ adults; surely they can sort something out between them. Pity Nick Clegg's not still there.
I see an eensy-weensy problem though ....
There is a case for supporting governmenr proposals if they are genuinely liberal, address economic or social unfairness, or work towards minimising the damage from last year's referendum. But then the Q for Labour is why they would be on the other side of such votes?
She was much impressed by how, despite all the crap thrown at Corbyn by the Tories and Tabloids that he remained positive and did not respond in kind.
Jezza had a great campaign, by playing to his strengths, while May played to her own weaknesses.
Interesting article about Labours gain in Reading East. Dynamics of Labours appeal in the south east:
Student vote + concern about Housing + Brexit + popularity of Corbyn.
I was frequently wondering where labours gains were going to happen, I guess this is the answer.
The lib dems were ruined politically for the 2010 coalition. Any kind of co-operation between labour and the conservatives would be politically suicidal for Labour. It is in their interest for the tories to simply own Brexit and the calamity that will inevitably follow.
I remember the emergence of Ken Livingstone. The Tory press went mental over this red-fanged communist, but in interviews he came over aS reasonably charming but determined.
Keeping your temper is the number one requisite for a successful politician. Appearances are all.
If we have to talk about any opinion polls now, I think we just focus on Survation and YouGov. It's clear, despite my own instincts at the time that they were well on the money.
It is 1974 revisited.
You might think that would be mean they'd cut and run. However Micawberism syndrome will set in - something will turn up. I expect the CCCC will limp along shedding support just as Sunny Jim did in 1977-79 and as John Major did 1994-97.
I heard Vince Cable on the radio last night and it is clear that he thinks a DUP deal could work and I just cannot see the Lib Dems voting in a Corbyn Government.
The dynamic has changed with the DUP seeking a soft Brexit and more importantly so is Ruth Davidson. Hard Brexit will not happen now and if the conservative party can find cross party consensus on Brexit they should survive, though May will have to be replaced at some time before the next GE