politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

A young lady on the BBC News just now stressing that more integration is key...whilsy wearing a full burka. She is doing her bit for integration!

MarqueeMark said:

How is an old LibDem retread like Vince going to change Govt. policy on Heathrow? Might as well get a Tory MP who at least stands a chance of getting the ear of the Minister, to try and win some concessions on the worst of the impact of the new runway....

Neither will have any impact on Mrs May. Nobody does, except her own very small circle of intimate advisers.

But a former Cabinet Minister will get a far greater hearing in the media than a very junior Tory backbencher, whom nobody has ever heard of.

RobD said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

How?

Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.

Here's the version from the Mail with the transcript: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html

Looks like an overheard conversation.

Dadge said:

What's this 39-35 Norstat poll that's been sneaked onto the list? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

Only 82% for Con + Lab + LD, which seems far too low.

RobD said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

How?

Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.

That might have been the daily mail

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The Conservatives' main plank is hard right Brexit. You can understand why a lot of the public might choose a different backward-looking fantasy instead, in the absence of anyone putting forward a forward-looking prospectus rooted in reality.

Not really. 52% of voters chose Brexit. That might have been a mistake, and it was certainly a high-risk decision, but it wasn't the Conservatives who made this choice. Theresa May has, very reasonably, gone for a policy of making the best of this democratic decision. Labour under Jeremy Corbyn seems to half-agree, so that isn't the dividing line

What's clear is that the Tories now own Brexit, for good or ill.

The Tories own everything. They are the only one of the two main parties even pretending to offer a programme for government (and the smaller parties have largely disappeared). So, yes, you are right.

Whoever wins this election is in for trouble. It's 92 or 05 times one thousand.

Remind me what was said in 2010....

Conservatives abandoned their deficit reduction plan at the first sign of economic wobble.

RobD said:

RobD said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

How?

Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.

Here's the version from the Mail with the transcript: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html

Looks like an overheard conversation.

Joking about national security....5 days time this mob could be in charge.

Typo said:

A young lady on the BBC News just now stressing that more integration is key...whilsy wearing a full burka. She is doing her bit for integration!

Did it have love spelled out with guns, hand grenades and knives?

Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Dadge said:

What's this 39-35 Norstat poll that's been sneaked onto the list? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

Only 82% for Con + Lab + LD, which seems far too low.

Don't knows?

Northern Ireland?

Dadge said:

Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

Any action on this has to be international, though. We need the US, EU, and UK all to agree a common position.

Dadge said:

Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

These media have also become a key intelligence gathering tool, cracking down only works if you can crack down on certain bits whilst leaving others to run.

Typo said:

A young lady on the BBC News just now stressing that more integration is key...whilsy wearing a full burka. She is doing her bit for integration!

I saw that too.

She might have no choice, or merely developing her own second thoughts.

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Dadge said:

What's this 39-35 Norstat poll that's been sneaked onto the list? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

Only 82% for Con + Lab + LD, which seems far too low.

Don't knows?

I'm guessing that's the reason. Which means you should probably add 3% to the Lab and Con scores, and one to the LibDem.

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.

20 Con losses would be perfect.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

Now even if they did report an individual, was it a SeanT type well my dry cleaner is acting a bit odd or something more concrete.

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/870673115935903744

There is a big difference between speculating on motivation, and sympathising.

RobD said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

How?

Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.

I read the transcript. It was only the Milne end. A passenger near Milne was recording his end of the conversation.

I thought what Milne said was entirely reasonable. But the transcript has disappeared and only a Sun edited version remains.

Edit: The transcript was in the Mail.

glw said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

How?

Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?

Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Dadge said:

Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

Any action on this has to be international, though. We need the US, EU, and UK all to agree a common position.

That'll be it, a single, united strategy from across the developed world to attack the sea with swords.

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.

It wasn't a muslim as I understand it but the mother of a child he tried to convert.

She herself is an Eastern European immigrant and then a Polish lady told the suspect that the first lady had called the police about him.

The Polish lady now concedes she might have been wrong about the man in question......

To be honest there may have been others who reported him but that is the only one that I saw in papers

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?

They must get hundreds of thousands of tips a year, and I suspect that many of them are a damn sight more worrying that "he said something a bit dodgy".

Ishmael_Z said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Ishmael_Z said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).

You okay? You're clearly quite triggered tonight. Take a chill pill, as Ariana would say 'it's gonna be alright'.

Acknowledging difference = racism? Really? Well, bloody hell that's a bit odd from you given that you've just popped to the of Enoch Powell (someone, who ironically is actually seen as a racist by many in communities of colour, especially West Indians - who overwhelming vote for the left that you argue is 'inherently racist'). Indeed, many of those minorities putting an x in the Labour box would argue the reverse - that the right has its own issues with racism.

Personally, I'd argue neither the left or right are 'inherently racist'. There are bad people in every group. But there you go. Have a nice night.

Yes sorry for putting it that way, but to repeat, it doesn't take a concert to persuade the British not to go demonising scapegoats, and your implication that it does was point scoring.

Huh?

I didn't say we needed a concert to persuade us not to go demonising scapegoats.

The whole point of my post was that the concert conveyed our values in the first place. Thus my comments about what message it sent out.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

There's something not quite working.

RobD said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

How?

Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.

How have the Sun managed to obtain a picture of the red button? Who knew it looked like a Scalextric controller?

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/870673115935903744

I don't see anything in that blog where she's "sympathising" with ISIS fighters, in the sense that she's saying it's an alright thing to do -- she is attempting to rationalise it (maybe in a wrong-headed and naive way, but still) and find what she considers solutions.

At least the public seem to finally be wising up to the right-wing press crying wolf with this sort of nonsense.

glw said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?

They must get hundreds of thousands of tips a year, and I suspect that many of them are a damn sight more worrying that "he said something a bit dodgy".

It must be a hell of a job to just eliminate the green ink brigade.

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.

It wasn't a muslim as I understand it but the mother of a child he tried to convert.

She herself is an Eastern European immigrant and then a Polish lady told the suspect that the first lady had called the police about him.

The Polish lady now concedes she might have been wrong about the man in question......

To be honest there may have been others who reported him but that is the only one that I saw in papers

Re the story above - I really don't think the press should be naming anyone who informs authorities of those they have suspicions of.

These people do not mind spilling blood.

CON 345
LAB 225
SNP 48
LD 9
PC 3
GRN 0
UKIP 0
NI 18
Speaker 1

Maj 40

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

There's something not quite working.

3000 people at imminent risk of attacking the UK according to an observer article. In general it takes 12 full time people to put 24/7 surveillance on one of them. That 3,000 is a shortlist of a larger 23,000 people who are serious concerns. Abedi may be have been on the longer list.

The best solution is to try and reduce the number of people on the lists, without raising the thresholds to get on them.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

There's something not quite working.

I am not saying there aren't problems. The authorities made mistakes over 7/7 and the follow up.

I am just saying I am very uncomfortable with the media just accepting somebody saying they reported somebody and immediately going with that. As they kept repeating on the BBC last night, witness reports are notoriously inaccurate.

We had the guy on Sky saying there was gunfire before any police turned up...

I want the facts.

Chris_A said:

glw said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

How?

Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?

Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?

Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

And what did they say, was it a SeanT style tip off about the dry cleaner? "He's got a beard now!" Or was it "he's spoken about killing people often". If it was the former then fair enough the SiS aren't going to expend too much following up on it, if it was the latter then they need to review what they deem as a threat because that's two in a row they've missed.

He said he would do anything for Islam even kill his mother. (So says the person who reported him)

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

There's something not quite working.

Someone told me that it's the way MI5 work that's a major issue and needs reviewing they let plots develop and then prevent them at the last minute so they can gather as much intelligence as possible and swoop on as many targets as possible, but it does leave us in trouble if they take their eye off the ball.

Swoop too early and you may get half the people, but lose all intel on the other half.

If 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn thinks that nuclear weapons don't keep us safe and are a waste of money - and there's a respectable argument for that position - then 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn should say so, carry his 'principles' of the last forty or so years into practical policy, and advocate cancellation of the Trident upgrade. But 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn's principles seem to disappear when he's trying to win an election.

Ishmael_Z said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Ishmael_Z said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Ishmael_Z said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).

You okay? You're clearly quite triggered tonight. Take a chill pill, as Ariana would say 'it's gonna be alright'.

Acknowledging difference = racism? Really? Well, bloody hell that's a bit odd from you given that you've just popped to the of Enoch Powell (someone, who ironically is actually seen as a racist by many in communities of colour, especially West Indians - who overwhelming vote for the left that you argue is 'inherently racist'). Indeed, many of those minorities putting an x in the Labour box would argue the reverse - that the right has its own issues with racism.

Personally, I'd argue neither the left or right are 'inherently racist'. There are bad people in every group. But there you go. Have a nice night.

Yes sorry for putting it that way, but to repeat, it doesn't take a concert to persuade the British not to go demonising scapegoats, and your implication that it does was point scoring.

Huh?

I didn't say we needed a concert to persuade us not to go demonising scapegoats.

The whole point of my post was that the concert conveyed our values in the first place. Thus my comments about what message it sent out.

OK. Perhaps​ I misunderstood you. In which case apologies.

It's okay. I'm prone to misunderstanding what people say as well from time to time. As MyBurningEars only knows too well

ReggieCide said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.

Have the police acknowledged they were told?

Not yet, but the journalists seem convinced. No doubt we will know more by the end of the week.

I am not suggesting the services are negligent, but any case like this should merit a serious internal inquiry to look at whether the clues were there.

Nobody bats 1000 as the Yanks say.

Danny565 said:

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/870673115935903744

I don't see anything in that blog where she's "sympathising" with ISIS fighters, in the sense that she's saying it's an alright thing to do -- she is attempting to rationalise it (maybe in a wrong-headed and naive way, but still) and find what she considers solutions.

At least the public seem to finally be wising up to the right-wing press crying wolf with this sort of nonsense.

The moral is don't cry wolf when there is no wolf or it loses its effectiveness, but of course in the end there was a wolf, and that was still bad for everyone involved, including those who ignored the cry in the end.

Not saying the press don't do all sorts of crap they shouldn't and it diminishes the effectiveness when they do have something, just that when we do miss something even if it is their fault for over saturating us with it, it's still not good for us.

I know it's been posted before but:

The Speaker counts as Conservative and should be included as Con when working out the Con majority. Not only is that how the BBC does it, it's how the official Parliament website does it also.

Reason: Lab will have to provide two Deputy Speakers and Con one. None of the four vote.

(Parliament website excludes all four giving same net result).

Chameleon said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

There's something not quite working.

Someone told me that it's the way MI5 work that's a major issue and needs reviewing they let plots develop and then prevent them at the last minute so they can gather as much intelligence as possible and swoop on as many targets as possible, but it does leave us in trouble if they take their eye off the ball.

Swoop too early and you may get half the people, but lose all intel on the other half.

Swoop early and you're definitely going to stop that specific plot.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

There's something not quite working.

Maybe we really do need control orders (or something similar) back.

For people like Abedi for whom there isn't enough evidence to give a good chance of a conviction in court, but nevertheless who should've been clearly kept tabs on.

Richard_Nabavi said:

If 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn thinks that nuclear weapons don't keep us safe and are a waste of money - and there's a respectable argument for that position - then 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn should say so, and carry his 'principles' of the last forty or so years into practical policy, and advocate cancellation of the Trident upgrade. But 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn's principles seem to disappear when he's trying to win an election.

Well he's not as different as people think - he is capable of adjusting, spinning, and all the other dark arts - he's just been as used to them until now.

Floater said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just like Salman Abedi

One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

And what did they say, was it a SeanT style tip off about the dry cleaner? "He's got a beard now!" Or was it "he's spoken about killing people often". If it was the former then fair enough the SiS aren't going to expend too much following up on it, if it was the latter then they need to review what they deem as a threat because that's two in a row they've missed.

He said he would do anything for Islam even kill his mother. (So says the person who reported him)

What about Mother-in-law? I might consider conversion if that was covered

People are saying Corbyn has done a u-turn on shoot to kill. No he hasn't read his words carefully. He says " "whatever force is necessary" to save lives. This could mean whatever *he* himself feels is neccessary, he would probably try to reason with the men stabbing thatwoman 15 times. I'm suprised none of the journalists actually asked him"so does this mean you support shoot to kill".

The Sun's leaked phone conversation on Trident shows this is all for show, he knows his pacifist views are toxic so him and slime have come up with a way to shut down the media questioning of him with this spin of "whatever force is necessary" it is a get out clause because what he deems is necessary will be different to what the avreage voter thinks.

And he is getting away with it. Ugh!

foxinsoxuk said:

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/870673115935903744

There is a big difference between speculating on motivation, and sympathising.

Quite. If you simply say terrorists are evil or mad and don't try to understand their motivations or how they are seduced into terrorism, you have less chance of effectively intervening. I'm sure the intelligence services put a lot of effort into understanding their motivations and influences. It doesn't mean they sympathise FFS!

Typical Tory dirty trick.

Luckily not many people in Richmond Park read the Sun.

Unluckily Zac Goldsmith is a master of the dirty trick so will probably get out a leaflet on this. But people remember the Sadiq Khan episode so it will rebound on him.

Richard_Nabavi said:

If 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn thinks that nuclear weapons don't keep us safe and are a waste of money - and there's a respectable argument for that position - then 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn should say so, carry his 'principles' of the last forty or so years into practical policy, and advocate cancellation of the Trident upgrade. But 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn's principles seem to disappear when he's trying to win an election.

I was saying this the other day.

This sums up Labours position re money.

We won't use it but will spend money we do not have on it anyway.

oxfordsimon said:

kle4 said:

CON 345
LAB 225
SNP 48
LD 9
PC 3
GRN 0
UKIP 0
NI 18
Speaker 1

Maj 40

You think Lucas will lose in Brighton?

I think there's a possibility of it (and frankly though she seems talented, I'd welcome it, as I think people give her too easy a ride because she is talented and they like the idea of a Green MP, irrespective of what the Greens themselves can be like as a party) during a Labour surge.

It's one of the bolder predictions I have.

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

CON 345
LAB 225
SNP 48
LD 9
PC 3
GRN 0
UKIP 0
NI 18
Speaker 1

Maj 40

I would mark Lab and SNP down slightly, largely to the benefit of Cons.

I hope you're right. I'd hope for something like

Con 370
Lab 190 (low enough that I think Corbyn would be forced out and his successor not being of his choosing)
SNP 43 (well really I'd hope for even fewer, but one has to keep a sense of realism)
LD 15 (holding most current areas, and gaining more than just in Scotland)

Unfortunately my hope is mathematically impossible, as I'd like Corbyn to be reduced enough to go, without the Tories having an unassailable majority, but without massive LD gains, only a Con landslide can get Corbyn out.