politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

Yorkcity said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.

And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.

And so it was.

And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.

Very true there has been no possibility of defeat but they spew hate out on here and elsewhere then condemn others for doing the same .

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.

And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.

And so it was.

And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.

Casino_Royale said:

KentRising said:

Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?

Here's what is going on: Corbyn is trendy, and right-on, and the Labour base is over-the-moon and totally enthused. Even in Surrey and Sussex Labour gets ~10% of the vote, and that's about 5,000 voters or so in each constituency.

It only takes the very few who love him, and live in the country, a retired artist, or wealthy London commuter in the media, to stick up one poster to shock people.

That's it.

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

KentRising said:

Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?

Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.

Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.

Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:

CON: 377
LAB: 198
SNP: 45
LD: 6
Others: 24

Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!

I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?

I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland.
Plus Ceredgion.

And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.

Course. I have those 6 as:

Westmorland & Lonsdale
Dunbartonshire East
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield Hallam

BUT:

Edinburgh West
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Fife North East

Are all projected LD second and without MOE....

I think Edinburgh West is by far the most likely LibDem gain in the country. Look at the results in the locals last month: they topped the poll in all three wards in constituency, and managed over 50% in the biggest (Almond). Sure, turnout will be down, but tactical voting will be up.

My guess is that Leeds NW will fall to Labour (albeit it'll be very close). Fife NE will also be very close, as the LDs won it at Holyrood last year and topped the polls in the locals there last month. (Albeit by a small margin.)

I also hope that Norman Lamb hangs on North Norfolk. I am Eurosceptic, socially liberal Conservative, and (frankly) think that the strand of liberalism he represents should be encouraged. I'd vote for him.

And Twickenham is also a 50/50 shot for the LDs. Why? Partly Brexit, mostly Heathrow.

oxfordsimon said:

glw said:

oxfordsimon said:

Farron's performance against Neil won't have helped. He has had a dreadful campaign.

He was a poor choice from a very limited pool. Lamb would have been a least a little better.

A little - but unlikely now to hold his Norfolk seat.

It is very hard to see who will replace Farron - the pool will be very small.

Prodicus said:

Casino_Royale said:

KentRising said:

Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?

Here's what is going on: Corbyn is trendy, and right-on, and the Labour base is over-the-moon and totally enthused. Even in Surrey and Sussex Labour gets ~10% of the vote, and that's about 5,000 voters or so in each constituency.

It only takes the very few who love him, and live in the country, a retired artist, or wealthy London commuter in the media, to stick up one poster to shock people.

That's it.

Rabble-rousing is easy for a specialist like Corbyn who's been honing his skill (and doing nothing else) for a lifetime, indulged by a party which alternately ignored and indulged him as an unthreatening souvenir of their own youthful fantasies. Or so they thought until the three-quidder black swan flew in.

Unfortunately, rabbles include malevolent useful idiots whose pathological hobby is violence, threatened or actual along with highly intelligent revolutionaries (I.e., better brains than Corbyn's... e.g., Milne) who are only too happy to use them. Corbyn is presently captain of such a motley crew. The ship, however, is effectively pilotless and will founder. Sooner or later. Let's hope sooner, before too many people get hurt.

Casino_Royale said:

MattyNeth said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Out cycling at the weekend, and not a single Conservative poster across Bournemouth East. A smattering for Conor Burns in Bournemouth West. Saw a single Labour activist in Bournemouth town centre handing out some leaflets to people who seemed interested - I saw hand out 1 as I walked up Commercial Road. One old lady cycling into Bournemouth with a Labout sticker on her basket.

Out in the New Forest, a handful of posters for Desmond Swayne in Burley and that's that.

This election is passing us by as usual down here....

Take an average street of 100 houses: Acacia Avenue. You see 8 x Labour posters in the windows of 8 x houses, that is, every 5-6 houses or so you see a Labour poster, and *nothing* else.

What do you think?

You think, if you're a Tory, "Oh, f*ck. Labour are going to walk it round here".

Why?

Because your mind naturally interpolates and fills the houses in-between as Labour voters as well.

Meanwhile, Crosby/Messina's data has 18 of those homes down as solid Cons, with a further 7 possibles and 6 waverers.

And they are being knocked up, and firmed up, whilst ignoring the others regularly.

What happens on the day?

Tory votes: 27. Labour votes: 8 (+ maybe a couple of others)

And you are shocked.

timmo said:

Casino_Royale said:

MattyNeth said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Out cycling at the weekend, and not a single Conservative poster across Bournemouth East. A smattering for Conor Burns in Bournemouth West. Saw a single Labour activist in Bournemouth town centre handing out some leaflets to people who seemed interested - I saw hand out 1 as I walked up Commercial Road. One old lady cycling into Bournemouth with a Labout sticker on her basket.

Out in the New Forest, a handful of posters for Desmond Swayne in Burley and that's that.

This election is passing us by as usual down here....

Take an average street of 100 houses: Acacia Avenue. You see 8 x Labour posters in the windows of 8 x houses, that is, every 5-6 houses or so you see a Labour poster, and *nothing* else.

What do you think?

You think, if you're a Tory, "Oh, f*ck. Labour are going to walk it round here".

Why?

Because your mind naturally interpolates and fills the houses in-between as Labour voters as well.

Meanwhile, Crosby/Messina's data has 18 of those homes down as solid Cons, with a further 7 possibles and 6 waverers.

And they are being knocked up, and firmed up, whilst ignoring the others regularly.

What happens on the day?

Tory votes: 27. Labour votes: 8 (+ maybe a couple of others)

And you are shocked.

Thats exactly what is happening in my area with the LDs.
They are knocking on doors and when they find a LD voter tgeybplead with them to put a yellow triangle in the window. They believe its psychology..mind you they have gone one better than that and are ringing pretty much the whole constituency every couple of days from an Egyptian call centre in Alexandria..explain that one away on election expenses..
Im sure OGH will give me the reason why that approach doesnt count towards election expenses..

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:

CON: 377
LAB: 198
SNP: 45
LD: 6
Others: 24

Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!

I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?

I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland.
Plus Ceredgion.

And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.

Course. I have those 6 as:

Westmorland & Lonsdale
Dunbartonshire East
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield Hallam

BUT:

Edinburgh West
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Fife North East

Are all projected LD second and without MOE....

I think Edinburgh West is by far the most likely LibDem gain in the country. Look at the results in the locals last month: they topped the poll in all three wards in constituency, and managed over 50% in the biggest (Almond). Sure, turnout will be down, but tactical voting will be up.

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.

And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.

And so it was.

I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.

rcs1000 said:

I think Edinburgh West is by far the most likely LibDem gain in the country. Look at the results in the locals last month: they topped the poll in all three wards in constituency, and managed over 50% in the biggest (Almond). Sure, turnout will be down, but tactical voting will be up.

My guess is that Leeds NW will fall to Labour (albeit it'll be very close). Fife NE will also be very close, as the LDs won it at Holyrood last year and topped the polls in the locals there last month. (Albeit by a small margin.)

I also hope that Norman Lamb hangs on North Norfolk. I am Eurosceptic, socially liberal Conservative, and (frankly) think that the strand of liberalism he represents should be encouraged. I'd vote for him.

And Twickenham is also a 50/50 shot for the LDs. Why? Partly Brexit, mostly Heathrow.

Casino_Royale said:

MarkSenior said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

KentRising said:

Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?

Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.

Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.

Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.

Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .

Local elections are not the same as General Elections.

Next.

Casino_Royale said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.

And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.

And so it was.

And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.

You mean we disagree with you.

The shame.

You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.

I don't need to polish it, it shines pure brilliance all by itself.

You okay? None of us are so perfect as to have halos.

I do. You can see it from the ISS.

surbiton said:

oxfordsimon said:

Pong said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

You logged onto this site within minutes of Gerald Kaufman dying and posted;

"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."

Far right types like you rival the far left in cruel and vindictive.

Why is it cruel and vindictive to want the truth about that man to emerge? I am a strong believer in justice - and that demands that that truth is brought into the open.

Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.

You are definitely far right.

MarkSenior said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarkSenior said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

KentRising said:

Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?

Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.

Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.

Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.

Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .

Local elections are not the same as General Elections.

Next.

True but in this GE all you Conservatives have offered not one positive reason to vote for Mts Weak and Wobbly . Loads and loads of reasons why Corbyn and or Labour will be bad but never ever a positive reason to vote for your party .

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

Only four days to go until the exit poll is announced! I can just hear the bongs at ten now....

I think the exit poll is probably the best part of the whole night for me...

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

Only four days to go until the exit poll is announced! I can just hear the bongs at ten now....

I think the exit poll is probably the best part of the whole night for me...

I'm in a bit of a pickle. The time lag on iPlayer is ~1 minute. Do I just not look at PB for a whole minute? Not sure I can manage that....

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

Only four days to go until the exit poll is announced! I can just hear the bongs at ten now....

I think the exit poll is probably the best part of the whole night for me...

I'm in a bit of a pickle. The time lag on iPlayer is ~1 minute. Do I just not look at PB for a whole minute? Not sure I can manage that....

You have to... You can't ruin the drama of the Big Ben Bongs by logging on to PB...

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.

And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.

And so it was.

I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.

Casino_Royale said:

Best thing to do:

(1) Log-on to Facebook at 10.01pm on Thursday.
(2) Go to 'update your status'
(3) Write: "Looooooooooooooooooooooollllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

Only four days to go until the exit poll is announced! I can just hear the bongs at ten now....

I think the exit poll is probably the best part of the whole night for me...

I'm in a bit of a pickle. The time lag on iPlayer is ~1 minute. Do I just not look at PB for a whole minute? Not sure I can manage that....

You have to... You can't ruin the drama of the Big Ben Bongs by logging on to PB...

I (somehow) managed in 2015....

Chameleon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.

And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.

And so it was.

I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.

Do you remember what happened in the aftermath of the Tory victory in GE2015?

Clue: they didn't take it very well.

This will be 2015 times 100.

rcs1000 said:

oxfordsimon said:

glw said:

oxfordsimon said:

Farron's performance against Neil won't have helped. He has had a dreadful campaign.

He was a poor choice from a very limited pool. Lamb would have been a least a little better.

A little - but unlikely now to hold his Norfolk seat.

It is very hard to see who will replace Farron - the pool will be very small.

Jo Swinson, if she wins East Dunbartonshire (which I think is the least likely of the potential Scottish gains for the LDs).

Nick Clegg, if he holds Sheffield Hallam (which I suspect he will).

Casino_Royale said:

MarkSenior said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarkSenior said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

KentRising said:

Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?

Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.

Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.

Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.

Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .

Local elections are not the same as General Elections.

Next.

True but in this GE all you Conservatives have offered not one positive reason to vote for Mts Weak and Wobbly . Loads and loads of reasons why Corbyn and or Labour will be bad but never ever a positive reason to vote for your party .

Right, the Conservatives won't win in OWAB this time because you don't like their message.

Got it.

SouthamObserver said:

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.

And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.

And so it was.

I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.

May has promised a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain. On 9th June she has to start delivering. Good luck Theresa :-D

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

Only four days to go until the exit poll is announced! I can just hear the bongs at ten now....

I think the exit poll is probably the best part of the whole night for me...

I'm in a bit of a pickle. The time lag on iPlayer is ~1 minute. Do I just not look at PB for a whole minute? Not sure I can manage that....

You have to... You can't ruin the drama of the Big Ben Bongs by logging on to PB...

I (somehow) managed in 2015....

I remember my jaw dropping when I saw what the exit poll was projecting in 2015! ;|)

surbiton said:

oxfordsimon said:

Pong said:

oxfordsimon said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

OldBasing said:

Anecdotal:

North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.

Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?

Make of that what you will.

I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.

Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.

There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.

Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...

The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.

And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.

The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.

Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace

You logged onto this site within minutes of Gerald Kaufman dying and posted;

"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."

Far right types like you rival the far left in cruel and vindictive.

Why is it cruel and vindictive to want the truth about that man to emerge? I am a strong believer in justice - and that demands that that truth is brought into the open.

Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.

You are definitely far right.

glw said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

I don't agree with that. If terrorists carry out a Beslan like attack in London or Paris I suspect all the happy-clappy stuff would be straight in the bin.

Jonathan said:

Curious thought. If Tories win, all they done is won two extra years. That's it. Barely makes a difference really. Not even half another term.

Ishmael_Z said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).

Ishmael_Z said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).

KentRising said:

Casino_Royale said:

Best thing to do:

(1) Log-on to Facebook at 10.01pm on Thursday.
(2) Go to 'update your status'
(3) Write: "Looooooooooooooooooooooollllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Hmmm, hubris, Casino. I don't like this overconfidence!

Chris said:

glw said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

I don't agree with that. If terrorists carry out a Beslan like attack in London or Paris I suspect all the happy-clappy stuff would be straight in the bin.

It rather depends how many people are too stupid to see that's the whole idea!

Mortimer said:

midwinter said:

Mortimer said:

Pulpstar said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:

CON: 377
LAB: 198
SNP: 45
LD: 6
Others: 24

Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!

I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?

I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland.
Plus Ceredgion.

And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.

Course. I have those 6 as:

Westmorland & Lonsdale
Dunbartonshire East
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredigion
Leeds North West (MOE only)
Sheffield Hallam (MOE only)

BUT:

Edinburgh West
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Fife North East

Are all projected LD second and without MOE....

Who do you have as closest challengers in Leeds NW and Hallam ?

How does Twickenham and Kingston also look ?
(Of course any model will have Richmond Park safely with the Tories)

Lab in both Leeds and Sheff H.

Twickenham, Tories by 6%
Kingston, Tories by 7%

And yep you're right - even I'm hoping my model is wrong on RP. Currently showing Con by 41%......

Out of interest what does your model predict for Hove if you don't mind saying. I think Labour should be comfortably odds on here and 11/10 is great value. I'm on at 9/4 and trying to persuade myself not to go in again! After all even the posh boys couldn't hold on in 2015!!!

Lab 46%, Con 40%....

But, as ever, DYOR

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

Curious thought. If Tories win, all they done is won two extra years. That's it. Barely makes a difference really. Not even half another term.

I'm not so sure about that, especially if the majority is larger.

It's a mathematical fact. She gambled three years to win five.

Jonathan said:

Curious thought. If Tories win, all they done is won two extra years. That's it. Barely makes a difference really. Not even half another term.

glw said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

I don't agree with that. If terrorists carry out a Beslan like attack in London or Paris I suspect all the happy-clappy stuff would be straight in the bin.