politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories
Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE
Comments
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May is a dud.
Oh, and first like Labour.....
....In Wales.0 -
Second0
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Second like Labour.0
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Fourth like the Liberal Democrats0
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It would be silly, because all parties would know that Len McCluskey would be having a quiet word or two about any such ban being introduced.The_Taxman said:
What would you think if a defence industry company told its employees to vote Tory because Labour planned to ban their exports? Would that be fair or not fair?SeanT said:
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.TravelJunkie said:
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.TudorRose said:
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.TravelJunkie said:
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.oxfordsimon said:
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?TravelJunkie said:
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Worked out well then didn't it?
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Is that a gotcha btw - has a company actually done this?0 -
Will this all come down to how the DKs break?0
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Looks like Labour's third.dixiedean said:Second like Labour.
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Damned kids?RobD said:Will this all come down to how the DKs break?
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In that case it'd be a complete labslide - for Lab!williamglenn said:
Damned kids?RobD said:Will this all come down to how the DKs break?
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Evening, is it just the Survation GMB poll tonight?0
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Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.0
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On topic: the issue is that many voters will think both May and Corbz are terrible, but May is already the PM so better the devil you know.0
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Labour will not win, that is all0
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It's YouGov.....0
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I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.0 -
It's also Ipsos MORI as well, the gold standard when it comes to leader/satisfaction ratings.MarqueeMark said:It's YouGov.....
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Corbyn speech - his Foreign policy one was well received below the line in the Mail
Top comment this time 220 green arrows, 57 red arrows.
Genuine red, Oxford, United Kingdom, 13 minutes ago
So Corbynn is using people's deaths to get votes , this man didn't even want to arm our police , without arms there would have been more deaths . Only a man without honour would use this as an election statement .0 -
Yeah, the text says ipsos mori, needs changing.MarqueeMark said:It's YouGov.....
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Dispirited Kendallites?williamglenn said:
Damned kids?RobD said:Will this all come down to how the DKs break?
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Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 53/36 to 42/47
Corb 15/67 to 42/440 -
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
Finally a label that fits!SandyRentool said:
Dispirited Kendallites?williamglenn said:
Damned kids?RobD said:Will this all come down to how the DKs break?
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I was using the April figuresRobD said:
Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 55/31 to 42/47
Corb 13/71 to 42/44
http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest0 -
Those numbers sum up the campaign.RobD said:
Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 55/31 to 42/47
Corb 13/71 to 42/44
Funny as feck too.0 -
Oops, read the wrong column! Fixed my earlier post.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was using the April figuresRobD said:
Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 55/31 to 42/47
Corb 13/71 to 42/44
http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest
And a bloody cheeky URL!0 -
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."0 -
Least surprising news of the day
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html0 -
May's "too much tolerance things have got to change" is a very powerful message.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.SeanT said:
A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
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With respect, people who comment on newspaper articles tend to be keen. More so in the free to access Guardian and Mail.Pulpstar said:Corbyn speech - his Foreign policy one was well received below the line in the Mail
Top comment this time 220 green arrows, 57 red arrows.
Genuine red, Oxford, United Kingdom, 13 minutes ago
So Corbynn is using people's deaths to get votes , this man didn't even want to arm our police , without arms there would have been more deaths . Only a man without honour would use this as an election statement .0 -
It's a good job not everyone has followed the campaign as closely as the Yougov survey takers has in general thenTheScreamingEagles said:
I was using the April figuresRobD said:
Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 55/31 to 42/47
Corb 13/71 to 42/44
http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest 0 -
I've just started a Yougov poll. It started with the usual questions about voting intentions, and moved on to an energy prices question which seemed impossible to move on from - I suspect there must have been a bug in the page. I don't think I'm being uniquely stupid - but I'd expect a lot of surveyees to have given up at this point too. In which case their next survey output might be a bit lacking in sample data.0
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If you're going to base your election campaign on being "strong and stable", probably not a great idea to have the main cut-through moments of the campaign be throwing a wobbly because some European leaders said some mean things about you in the press, U-turning on your flagship manifesto promise because some people criticised it, and chickening out of a TV debate.SandyRentool said:
Those numbers sum up the campaign.RobD said:
Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 55/31 to 42/47
Corb 13/71 to 42/44
Funny as feck too.0 -
Yes, but since it's May she'll probably just use this as an excuse to censor the internet rather than actually tackling the bloody issue. Plus the moment polling shows that she has something to gain by changing what she say - she will flipflop.Ishmael_Z said:
May's "too much tolerance things have got to change" is a very powerful message.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
These online panels really are full of political nerds aren't they? (no offence meant with the nerd comment!)Cookie said:I've just started a Yougov poll. It started with the usual questions about voting intentions, and moved on to an energy prices question which seemed impossible to move on from - I suspect there must have been a bug in the page. I don't think I'm being uniquely stupid - but I'd expect a lot of surveyees to have given up at this point too. In which case their next survey output might be a bit lacking in sample data.
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Is there anyone who could say that, on balance, the Islamic immigration of the last 50 years has been a net positive for the UK?SeanT said:
A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
I have said before on here and elsewhere that France ii particular is effectively in a low intensity insurgencySeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/
Mutti Merkel hasn't helped either0 -
Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?0 -
Entirely depends on how big the win is.surbiton said:Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?0 -
Tories not impressed with Jezza's speech.0
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That's what I want, but I can't see it happening.RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
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LOL Not a single audible word from Cornyn.Floater said:Least surprising news of the day
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html
This rag is desperate0 -
I don't think even the staunchest of the Jezza twatterati are expecting Corbyn to reduce the Tories to four seats ....RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."0 -
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Net change on leader ratings by Party
May:
Con -4 Well, +4 Bad
Lab -9 Well, +13 Bad
LD -4 Well, +5 Bad
UKIP -3 Well, +4 Bad
Corbyn:
Con +10 Well, -11 Bad
Lab +36 Well, -28 Bad
LD +41 Well, -43 Bad
UKIP +2 Well, +14 Bad0 -
Dead KennedysSandyRentool said:
Dispirited Kendallites?williamglenn said:
Damned kids?RobD said:Will this all come down to how the DKs break?
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You will regret saying this when Germany beats England 4-0 in football 10 years from now and 6 Syrians will be in the German side.Chameleon said:
Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.SeanT said:
A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
0
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Of those who stood for the leadership, probably yes.surbiton said:Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?
Unaccountably, the strongest Leaver candidate chose not to stand.0 -
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871445537714733057SandyRentool said:
Those numbers sum up the campaign.RobD said:
Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 55/31 to 42/47
Corb 13/71 to 42/44
Funny as feck too.0 -
Ha - none taken! I can't imagine why anyone uninterested in politics would take them - it can't be for the financial rewards. Maybe they love thinking about what house-cleaning-product firm they would be proud to work for.RobD said:
These online panels really are full of political nerds aren't they? (no offence meant with the nerd comment!)Cookie said:I've just started a Yougov poll. It started with the usual questions about voting intentions, and moved on to an energy prices question which seemed impossible to move on from - I suspect there must have been a bug in the page. I don't think I'm being uniquely stupid - but I'd expect a lot of surveyees to have given up at this point too. In which case their next survey output might be a bit lacking in sample data.
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No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.Pulpstar said:
Entirely depends on how big the win is.surbiton said:Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?
Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.0 -
Thank god for small mercies.Pulpstar said:
It's a good job not everyone has followed the campaign as closely as the Yougov survey takers has in general thenTheScreamingEagles said:
I was using the April figuresRobD said:
Well/BadTheScreamingEagles said:
I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.Scrapheap_as_was said:Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
May 55/31 to 42/47
Corb 13/71 to 42/44
http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest0 -
fourteen is more like it, Corbynism sweeping the nation!JackW said:
I don't think even the staunchest of the Jezza twatterati are expecting Corbyn to reduce the Tories to four seats ....RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."0 -
Are they naturally better at football?surbiton said:
You will regret saying this when Germany beats England 4-0 in football 10 years from now and 6 Syrians will be in the German side.Chameleon said:
Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.SeanT said:
A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
Cameron exploited Brown's ratings fall, and ended up with a coalition. I wasn't convinced that he was ruthless to secure a majority in 2010. However, the scale of the past Tory defeats was a huge mountain to climb.
This analysis might calm some nerves, the analysis groups polls by methodology, and compares like with like.
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-5-5-steps-to-making-sense-of-the-latest-polls/0 -
Hard to know as there was no contest.Dominac Rabb has been out and about taking questions from difficult audiences.surbiton said:Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?0 -
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
four-ty ?
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Was hoping for "fourteen hundred"MarkHopkins said:RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
four-ty ?0 -
Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginalRobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."0 -
May really made a mistake by going to the polls so soon after becoming PM. The thing is that, although Joe Public had a positive view of her a few weeks ago, it was quite a vague and hazy view -- they had very few solid things to grasp onto to base their positive impressions on. So, once the campaign started and she started getting attacked and scrutinised much more closely, the positive impressions of her collapsed much more easily than they would've done if voters had years of her in office to base their opinions on, as well as specific moments they could recall which showed her to be a "strong leader", and specific policies which they approved of.
The upside for her though is that, assuming she does scrape through this time, at the next General Election having a 5-year record to her name should be an easier sell to voters than her own personality and campaigning skills, which is what this campaign was staked on.0 -
Why would that make any difference?surbiton said:
You will regret saying this when Germany beats England 4-0 in football 10 years from now and 6 Syrians will be in the German side.Chameleon said:
Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.SeanT said:
A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/0 -
May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.RobD said:0 -
To be fair to May, I think she is a better administrator than she is a campaigner. Given the pitfalls of the Home Office, she survived longer than any other modern politician in that role - you only have to look at the many people who held that office under Blair and Brown and how frequently they left it under a cloud.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.Pulpstar said:
Entirely depends on how big the win is.surbiton said:Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?
Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.
She is not a campaigner - but she is the only viable PM candidate we have on offer in 4 days time.0 -
Probably not a good attack line for Corbynistas to use.bigjohnowls said:
May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.RobD said:0 -
RobD said:
Was hoping for "fourteen hundred"MarkHopkins said:RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
four-ty ?
You are Diane Abbot and I claim my $500,000.
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0
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I get the feeling the voters that will decide this election have finally rumbled Corbyn.RobD said:
Probably not a good attack line for Corbynistas to use.bigjohnowls said:
May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.RobD said:0 -
Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...spire2 said:Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."0 -
TBF if you said it wasn't positive you would be called a racist.SeanT said:
Only a mad, blinkered idiot. So about 40% of the country.isam said:
Is there anyone who could say that, on balance, the Islamic immigration of the last 50 years has been a net positive for the UK?SeanT said:
A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.Chameleon said:
Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.SeanT said:This is good on the latest jihadism.
Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.
http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/
I have actually seen people looking over their shoulders before voicing negative opinions on these matters as they were worried about repercussions.0 -
That's one way to delay Brexit, elections every six months!foxinsoxuk said:
Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...spire2 said:Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."0 -
Although I know in my heart of hearts that a May majority is the best result for the country, a substantial silver lining of her losing is that the most authoritarian Tory will have been flushed out from the front line, and someone with a positive vision will be able to take over.0
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Strangely enough I think it is because Corbyn is so dreadful that the attacks on him are relatively ineffective. "Terrorist supporting" and so on sound like smears even though they are basically true. The Tories have also suffered from an adversary (the ecurrent Labour leadership) that is totally unscrupulous, tonight's speech being but one example. Ed Milliband's economic policies would probably have failed but they were genuinely supposed to be a programme for government. The current manifesto is a programme to provoke a crisis where they hope to see a radical transformation of society (a poor man's attempt at Trotsky's tactic of transitional demands). To puncture this we need a late intervention by one or more respected non-Tory figures attacking the morality of Corbyn. Ironically the idiotic Lib Dems have contributed to the siruation by not attacking Corbyn and spending their energy against the Tories. They could have had a much better campaign along the lines of "Corbyn and co are anti-democratic extremists, we are the sensible anti-Tory alternative."0
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Momentum has absolutely swamped the MailOnline comment section in recent weeks. It's a war game. Proportionality in the comments there now means zero in relation to actual reader opinion. Regular Mail types won't bother to struggle to log a POV against such a tide.matt said:
With respect, people who comment on newspaper articles tend to be keen. More so in the free to access Guardian and Mail.Pulpstar said:Corbyn speech - his Foreign policy one was well received below the line in the Mail
Top comment this time 220 green arrows, 57 red arrows.
Genuine red, Oxford, United Kingdom, 13 minutes ago
So Corbynn is using people's deaths to get votes , this man didn't even want to arm our police , without arms there would have been more deaths . Only a man without honour would use this as an election statement .
They will vote on Thurs though.
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14 Tory MP's in Scotland? ....foxinsoxuk said:fourteen is more like it, Corbynism sweeping the nation!
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And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.foxinsoxuk said:
Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...spire2 said:Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
Ooooh0 -
Just been watching the Manchester concert. I see that bed wetting is still going on, with the basis for it being YouGov figures of all things, so I haven't missed much then....0
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I have my eyes firmly fixed on Jack's ARSE.0
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You really want to go there?bigjohnowls said:
May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.RobD said:
brave as Sir Humphrey might say0 -
I'm not sure on the rules. Does he have to be an MP? Suspect there are a few that would stand aside.TheScreamingEagles said:
And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.foxinsoxuk said:
Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...spire2 said:Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
Ooooh0 -
lolTheScreamingEagles said:
And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.foxinsoxuk said:
Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...spire2 said:Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
Ooooh
you can smell your desperation
GOWNBPM0 -
If somehow May falls short, and no majority gov can be formed then by the time the second GE has happened (which may be inconclusive as well), May will have pissed away about 1/3rd of the time to negotiate the exit from the EU. Bloody brilliant 4D chess from May there.0
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My big worry, politically speaking is that Corbyn's defeat won't be nearly big enough. It'd be a disaster for the centre and centre-left if he was to retain over 200 seats.0
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I would be so happy if Clegg or Osbourne made a serious challenge to become PM. Clegg especially, he could get me off my arse and campaigning.Alanbrooke said:
lolTheScreamingEagles said:
And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.foxinsoxuk said:
Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...spire2 said:Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
Ooooh
you can smell your desperation
GOWNBPM0 -
https://youtu.be/-dRuPPSKNhESeanT said:
Like I just said, we are facing a civil emergency, potentially a low-level but chronic civil war (when the native population finally fights back - which it will)RobD said:
23,000 jihadis in the UK. 23,000.
Maybe 200,000 sympathisers. Mind-fucking stats
Imagine if the jihadis up their game - just a bit - and these attacks come at us once a week, with numbing success and regularity. We will be Ulster in the 70s, with extra horror and race/religious hatred. Internment will be inevitable. And worse.0 -
With hindsight we were looking in the wrong place for a repeat of the TBGB dysfunctional dynamic that existed under New Labour. It was May as Home Secretary who was plotting and scheming and using her office to position herself for the top job.oxfordsimon said:
To be fair to May, I think she is a better administrator than she is a campaigner. Given the pitfalls of the Home Office, she survived longer than any other modern politician in that role - you only have to look at the many people who held that office under Blair and Brown and how frequently they left it under a cloud.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.Pulpstar said:
Entirely depends on how big the win is.surbiton said:Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?
Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.
She is not a campaigner - but she is the only viable PM candidate we have on offer in 4 days time.0 -
May's barely that much better.SeanT said:
Ugh. The cockroaches of the left. Hugging Hamas and Hezbollah, fellating the IRA, arse-licking fucking ISIS.bigjohnowls said:
May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.RobD said:
Your leader proudly "voted down every single piece of counter-terror legislation since 1983".
And you have the gall, you loathsome piece of intellectual dung, to ask us to vote for him?0 -
I fear Clegg is in the wrong party!Chameleon said:
I would be so happy if Clegg or Osbourne made a serious challenge to become PM. Clegg especially, he could get me off my arse and campaigning.Alanbrooke said:
lolTheScreamingEagles said:
And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.foxinsoxuk said:
Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...spire2 said:Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
RobD said:
I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests.JackW said:
My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.chloe said:
Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :
"Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
Ooooh
you can smell your desperation
GOWNBPM0 -
Looks like the US Chargé d'affaires-ai in London has gone a bit rogue.
How long until Trump fires him?
https://twitter.com/USAinUK/status/8714356295692124160 -
I don't think she's that clever.williamglenn said:
With hindsight we were looking in the wrong place for a repeat of the TBGB dysfunctional dynamic that existed under New Labour. It was May as Home Secretary who was plotting and scheming and using her office to position herself for the top job.oxfordsimon said:
To be fair to May, I think she is a better administrator than she is a campaigner. Given the pitfalls of the Home Office, she survived longer than any other modern politician in that role - you only have to look at the many people who held that office under Blair and Brown and how frequently they left it under a cloud.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.Pulpstar said:
Entirely depends on how big the win is.surbiton said:Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.
She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.
Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?
Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.
She is not a campaigner - but she is the only viable PM candidate we have on offer in 4 days time.0
