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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

SystemSystem Posts: 12,564
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,131
    edited June 2017
    May is a dud.

    Oh, and first like Labour.....



    ....In Wales.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Second
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,290
    Second like Labour.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    edited June 2017
    Fourth like the Liberal Democrats
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The_Taxman said:

    SeanT said:

    TravelJunkie said:

    TudorRose said:

    TravelJunkie said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    TravelJunkie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TravelJunkie said:

    RobD said:

    TravelJunkie said:

    What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?

    How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?

    Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.

    Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
    I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
    Are 70% even registered ?

    It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
    Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
    Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?

    Worked out well then didn't it?
    I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
    Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
    My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.

    It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
    Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
    What would you think if a defence industry company told its employees to vote Tory because Labour planned to ban their exports? Would that be fair or not fair?
    It would be silly, because all parties would know that Len McCluskey would be having a quiet word or two about any such ban being introduced.

    Is that a gotcha btw - has a company actually done this?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Freggles said:

    Fourth like the Liberal Democrats

    I saw that. ;)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,080
    dixiedean said:

    Second like Labour.

    Looks like Labour's third.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,143
    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    Damned kids?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    Fourth like the Liberal Democrats

    I saw that. ;)
    2fast4quotebutton
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    Damned kids?
    In that case it'd be a complete labslide - for Lab!
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Evening, is it just the Survation GMB poll tonight?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    On topic: the issue is that many voters will think both May and Corbz are terrible, but May is already the PM so better the devil you know.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    How firm is your ARSE?

    :smiley:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Labour will not win, that is all
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,380
    It's YouGov.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    MarqueeMark said:

    It's YouGov.....

    It's also Ipsos MORI as well, the gold standard when it comes to leader/satisfaction ratings.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    Corbyn speech - his Foreign policy one was well received below the line in the Mail

    Top comment this time 220 green arrows, 57 red arrows.

    Genuine red, Oxford, United Kingdom, 13 minutes ago

    So Corbynn is using people's deaths to get votes , this man didn't even want to arm our police , without arms there would have been more deaths . Only a man without honour would use this as an election statement .
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    How firm is your ARSE?

    :smiley:
    Rock Hard
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    MarqueeMark said:

    It's YouGov.....

    Yeah, the text says ipsos mori, needs changing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,131
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    Damned kids?
    Dispirited Kendallites?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 53/36 to 42/47
    Corb 15/67 to 42/44
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    SandyRentool said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    Damned kids?
    Dispirited Kendallites?
    Finally a label that fits!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 55/31 to 42/47
    Corb 13/71 to 42/44
    I was using the April figures


    http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,131
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 55/31 to 42/47
    Corb 13/71 to 42/44
    Those numbers sum up the campaign.

    Funny as feck too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 55/31 to 42/47
    Corb 13/71 to 42/44
    I was using the April figures


    http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest
    Oops, read the wrong column! Fixed my earlier post.

    And a bloody cheeky URL!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Least surprising news of the day

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    May's "too much tolerance things have got to change" is a very powerful message.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    SeanT said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.
    Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn speech - his Foreign policy one was well received below the line in the Mail

    Top comment this time 220 green arrows, 57 red arrows.

    Genuine red, Oxford, United Kingdom, 13 minutes ago

    So Corbynn is using people's deaths to get votes , this man didn't even want to arm our police , without arms there would have been more deaths . Only a man without honour would use this as an election statement .

    With respect, people who comment on newspaper articles tend to be keen. More so in the free to access Guardian and Mail.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 55/31 to 42/47
    Corb 13/71 to 42/44
    I was using the April figures


    http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest
    It's a good job not everyone has followed the campaign as closely as the Yougov survey takers has in general then :p
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,601
    I've just started a Yougov poll. It started with the usual questions about voting intentions, and moved on to an energy prices question which seemed impossible to move on from - I suspect there must have been a bug in the page. I don't think I'm being uniquely stupid - but I'd expect a lot of surveyees to have given up at this point too. In which case their next survey output might be a bit lacking in sample data.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SandyRentool said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 55/31 to 42/47
    Corb 13/71 to 42/44
    Those numbers sum up the campaign.

    Funny as feck too.
    If you're going to base your election campaign on being "strong and stable", probably not a great idea to have the main cut-through moments of the campaign be throwing a wobbly because some European leaders said some mean things about you in the press, U-turning on your flagship manifesto promise because some people criticised it, and chickening out of a TV debate.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    May's "too much tolerance things have got to change" is a very powerful message.
    Yes, but since it's May she'll probably just use this as an excuse to censor the internet rather than actually tackling the bloody issue. Plus the moment polling shows that she has something to gain by changing what she say - she will flipflop.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Cookie said:

    I've just started a Yougov poll. It started with the usual questions about voting intentions, and moved on to an energy prices question which seemed impossible to move on from - I suspect there must have been a bug in the page. I don't think I'm being uniquely stupid - but I'd expect a lot of surveyees to have given up at this point too. In which case their next survey output might be a bit lacking in sample data.

    These online panels really are full of political nerds aren't they? (no offence meant with the nerd comment!)
  • isamisam Posts: 42,157
    SeanT said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.
    Is there anyone who could say that, on balance, the Islamic immigration of the last 50 years has been a net positive for the UK?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    I have said before on here and elsewhere that France ii particular is effectively in a low intensity insurgency

    Mutti Merkel hasn't helped either
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    surbiton said:

    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?

    Entirely depends on how big the win is.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,896
    Tories not impressed with Jezza's speech.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    That's what I want, but I can't see it happening.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    Floater said:

    Least surprising news of the day

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html

    LOL Not a single audible word from Cornyn.

    This rag is desperate
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    I don't think even the staunchest of the Jezza twatterati are expecting Corbyn to reduce the Tories to four seats ....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Net change on leader ratings by Party

    May:

    Con -4 Well, +4 Bad
    Lab -9 Well, +13 Bad
    LD -4 Well, +5 Bad
    UKIP -3 Well, +4 Bad

    Corbyn:

    Con +10 Well, -11 Bad
    Lab +36 Well, -28 Bad
    LD +41 Well, -43 Bad
    UKIP +2 Well, +14 Bad
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    SandyRentool said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    Damned kids?
    Dispirited Kendallites?
    Dead Kennedys
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.
    Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.
    You will regret saying this when Germany beats England 4-0 in football 10 years from now and 6 Syrians will be in the German side.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Blimey
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,131
    surbiton said:

    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?

    Of those who stood for the leadership, probably yes.

    Unaccountably, the strongest Leaver candidate chose not to stand.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    SandyRentool said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 55/31 to 42/47
    Corb 13/71 to 42/44
    Those numbers sum up the campaign.

    Funny as feck too.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871445537714733057
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,601
    RobD said:

    Cookie said:

    I've just started a Yougov poll. It started with the usual questions about voting intentions, and moved on to an energy prices question which seemed impossible to move on from - I suspect there must have been a bug in the page. I don't think I'm being uniquely stupid - but I'd expect a lot of surveyees to have given up at this point too. In which case their next survey output might be a bit lacking in sample data.

    These online panels really are full of political nerds aren't they? (no offence meant with the nerd comment!)
    Ha - none taken! I can't imagine why anyone uninterested in politics would take them - it can't be for the financial rewards. Maybe they love thinking about what house-cleaning-product firm they would be proud to work for.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,442
    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?

    Entirely depends on how big the win is.
    No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.

    Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Downer.... hmm that's sobering. Especially given the absolute state of the opponents.

    I had to check FOUR times it wasn't a typo.

    There's been a 72% movement with YouGov in around six weeks.
    Well/Bad

    May 55/31 to 42/47
    Corb 13/71 to 42/44
    I was using the April figures


    http://tinyurl.com/AVIsDaBest
    It's a good job not everyone has followed the campaign as closely as the Yougov survey takers has in general then :p
    Thank god for small mercies.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    I don't think even the staunchest of the Jezza twatterati are expecting Corbyn to reduce the Tories to four seats ....
    fourteen is more like it, Corbynism sweeping the nation!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    surbiton said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.
    Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.
    You will regret saying this when Germany beats England 4-0 in football 10 years from now and 6 Syrians will be in the German side.
    Are they naturally better at football?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Cameron exploited Brown's ratings fall, and ended up with a coalition. I wasn't convinced that he was ruthless to secure a majority in 2010. However, the scale of the past Tory defeats was a huge mountain to climb.

    This analysis might calm some nerves, the analysis groups polls by methodology, and compares like with like.

    https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-5-5-steps-to-making-sense-of-the-latest-polls/
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    surbiton said:

    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?

    Hard to know as there was no contest.Dominac Rabb has been out and about taking questions from difficult audiences.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p

    four-ty ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    MarkHopkins said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p

    four-ty ?
    Was hoping for "fourteen hundred"
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    May really made a mistake by going to the polls so soon after becoming PM. The thing is that, although Joe Public had a positive view of her a few weeks ago, it was quite a vague and hazy view -- they had very few solid things to grasp onto to base their positive impressions on. So, once the campaign started and she started getting attacked and scrutinised much more closely, the positive impressions of her collapsed much more easily than they would've done if voters had years of her in office to base their opinions on, as well as specific moments they could recall which showed her to be a "strong leader", and specific policies which they approved of.

    The upside for her though is that, assuming she does scrape through this time, at the next General Election having a 5-year record to her name should be an easier sell to voters than her own personality and campaigning skills, which is what this campaign was staked on.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    surbiton said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.
    Or, make immigrant minorities integrate rather than create their own little communities and clusters.
    You will regret saying this when Germany beats England 4-0 in football 10 years from now and 6 Syrians will be in the German side.
    Why would that make any difference?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Blimey
    May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?

    Entirely depends on how big the win is.
    No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.

    Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.
    To be fair to May, I think she is a better administrator than she is a campaigner. Given the pitfalls of the Home Office, she survived longer than any other modern politician in that role - you only have to look at the many people who held that office under Blair and Brown and how frequently they left it under a cloud.

    She is not a campaigner - but she is the only viable PM candidate we have on offer in 4 days time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    bigjohnowls said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Blimey
    May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.
    Probably not a good attack line for Corbynistas to use.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p

    four-ty ?
    Was hoping for "fourteen hundred"

    You are Diane Abbot and I claim my $500,000.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Jesus christ. That's terrifying.

    However, I wonder what caused the upturn?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    RobD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Blimey
    May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.
    Probably not a good attack line for Corbynistas to use.
    I get the feeling the voters that will decide this election have finally rumbled Corbyn.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    spire2 said:

    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good on the latest jihadism.

    Horribly believable; chilling in its details. This isn't the IRA 2.0 - we are facing ongoing civil emergency. Maybe civil war.

    http://observer.com/2017/06/london-bridge-isis-attack-british-m15/

    Well a good first step would be electing someone who doesn't support Saudi Arabia and isn't a historical supporter of terrorism in the UK. Sadly that seems to be too much to ask for these days.
    A good first step would be Don't have a massive Muslim minority in your country. Too late for us, but well done all those nations that avoided this fucking disaster.
    Is there anyone who could say that, on balance, the Islamic immigration of the last 50 years has been a net positive for the UK?
    Only a mad, blinkered idiot. So about 40% of the country.
    TBF if you said it wasn't positive you would be called a racist.

    I have actually seen people looking over their shoulders before voicing negative opinions on these matters as they were worried about repercussions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    foxinsoxuk said:

    spire2 said:

    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...
    That's one way to delay Brexit, elections every six months!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,131
    Chameleon said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Jesus christ. That's terrifying.

    However, I wonder what caused the upturn?
    Must have been the triggering of Article 50.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    Although I know in my heart of hearts that a May majority is the best result for the country, a substantial silver lining of her losing is that the most authoritarian Tory will have been flushed out from the front line, and someone with a positive vision will be able to take over.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Strangely enough I think it is because Corbyn is so dreadful that the attacks on him are relatively ineffective. "Terrorist supporting" and so on sound like smears even though they are basically true. The Tories have also suffered from an adversary (the ecurrent Labour leadership) that is totally unscrupulous, tonight's speech being but one example. Ed Milliband's economic policies would probably have failed but they were genuinely supposed to be a programme for government. The current manifesto is a programme to provoke a crisis where they hope to see a radical transformation of society (a poor man's attempt at Trotsky's tactic of transitional demands). To puncture this we need a late intervention by one or more respected non-Tory figures attacking the morality of Corbyn. Ironically the idiotic Lib Dems have contributed to the siruation by not attacking Corbyn and spending their energy against the Tories. They could have had a much better campaign along the lines of "Corbyn and co are anti-democratic extremists, we are the sensible anti-Tory alternative."
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn speech - his Foreign policy one was well received below the line in the Mail

    Top comment this time 220 green arrows, 57 red arrows.

    Genuine red, Oxford, United Kingdom, 13 minutes ago

    So Corbynn is using people's deaths to get votes , this man didn't even want to arm our police , without arms there would have been more deaths . Only a man without honour would use this as an election statement .

    With respect, people who comment on newspaper articles tend to be keen. More so in the free to access Guardian and Mail.
    Momentum has absolutely swamped the MailOnline comment section in recent weeks. It's a war game. Proportionality in the comments there now means zero in relation to actual reader opinion. Regular Mail types won't bother to struggle to log a POV against such a tide.

    They will vote on Thurs though.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    foxinsoxuk said:

    fourteen is more like it, Corbynism sweeping the nation!

    14 Tory MP's in Scotland? .... :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    foxinsoxuk said:

    spire2 said:

    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...
    And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.

    Ooooh
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Jesus christ. That's terrifying.

    However, I wonder what caused the upturn?
    The collapse of IS in Mosul. As their geographic state collapses, they become a virtual one.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Just been watching the Manchester concert. I see that bed wetting is still going on, with the basis for it being YouGov figures of all things, so I haven't missed much then....
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    I have my eyes firmly fixed on Jack's ARSE.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    bigjohnowls said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Blimey
    May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.
    You really want to go there?

    brave as Sir Humphrey might say
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    spire2 said:

    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...
    And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.

    Ooooh
    I'm not sure on the rules. Does he have to be an MP? Suspect there are a few that would stand aside.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    spire2 said:

    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...
    And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.

    Ooooh
    lol

    you can smell your desperation

    GOWNBPM
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    If somehow May falls short, and no majority gov can be formed then by the time the second GE has happened (which may be inconclusive as well), May will have pissed away about 1/3rd of the time to negotiate the exit from the EU. Bloody brilliant 4D chess from May there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Prodicus said:

    I have my eyes firmly fixed on Jack's ARSE.

    I was admiring how firm it was earlier. :smiley:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    My big worry, politically speaking is that Corbyn's defeat won't be nearly big enough. It'd be a disaster for the centre and centre-left if he was to retain over 200 seats.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    spire2 said:

    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...
    And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.

    Ooooh
    lol

    you can smell your desperation

    GOWNBPM
    I would be so happy if Clegg or Osbourne made a serious challenge to become PM. Clegg especially, he could get me off my arse and campaigning.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,157
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Blimey
    Like I just said, we are facing a civil emergency, potentially a low-level but chronic civil war (when the native population finally fights back - which it will)

    23,000 jihadis in the UK. 23,000.

    Maybe 200,000 sympathisers. Mind-fucking stats

    Imagine if the jihadis up their game - just a bit - and these attacks come at us once a week, with numbing success and regularity. We will be Ulster in the 70s, with extra horror and race/religious hatred. Internment will be inevitable. And worse.
    https://youtu.be/-dRuPPSKNhE
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,143
    oxfordsimon said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?

    Entirely depends on how big the win is.
    No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.

    Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.
    To be fair to May, I think she is a better administrator than she is a campaigner. Given the pitfalls of the Home Office, she survived longer than any other modern politician in that role - you only have to look at the many people who held that office under Blair and Brown and how frequently they left it under a cloud.

    She is not a campaigner - but she is the only viable PM candidate we have on offer in 4 days time.
    With hindsight we were looking in the wrong place for a repeat of the TBGB dysfunctional dynamic that existed under New Labour. It was May as Home Secretary who was plotting and scheming and using her office to position herself for the top job.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    SeanT said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/871444260687630337

    Blimey
    May weak on terror Wobbly on the causes of terror.
    Ugh. The cockroaches of the left. Hugging Hamas and Hezbollah, fellating the IRA, arse-licking fucking ISIS.

    Your leader proudly "voted down every single piece of counter-terror legislation since 1983".

    And you have the gall, you loathsome piece of intellectual dung, to ask us to vote for him?
    May's barely that much better.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Chameleon said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    spire2 said:

    Surely everybody on this website woukd rather see a prediction of conservatives short of a majority by 10 seats? Imagine the fun of waiting for hours for the result from a south west marginal

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    chloe said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Will this all come down to how the DKs break?

    No.

    Con Landslide.
    Not with these leadership ratings. At this rate Corbyn will be ahead before Thursday.
    My dear lady it's the hope that kills you.

    Stone dead as the chimes of Big Ben finish at 10:00pm on Thursday and David Dimbledore crushes your hopes in these words :

    "Our exit polls shows a Conservatives landslide ..."
    I'm just hoping he says "four" as the first word when describing the number of seats for the Tories their exit poll suggests. :p
    Definitely, and further betting opportunities on Tory leadership and Autumn GE...
    And Osborne to stand as a Tory candidate in the Autumn GE.

    Ooooh
    lol

    you can smell your desperation

    GOWNBPM
    I would be so happy if Clegg or Osbourne made a serious challenge to become PM. Clegg especially, he could get me off my arse and campaigning.
    I fear Clegg is in the wrong party!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    Looks like the US Chargé d'affaires-ai in London has gone a bit rogue.

    How long until Trump fires him?

    https://twitter.com/USAinUK/status/871435629569212416
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,702
    williamglenn said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Even if the Tories win on Thursday and I think it will still be a comfortable win, Theresa May will not be seen anymore like she was 6 weeks back, Even amongst Tories.

    She is actually very poor. No wonder her failures at the Home Office.

    Yet she was the best Tory to be PM ?

    Entirely depends on how big the win is.
    No it doesn't. A lot of things will contribute to the size of any win (I hope it is a win). But whatever happens, excepting any revelations after the event such as illness, May has shown herself to be a very poor performer allowing a poorly constructed manifesto to be published, failing to score through large numbers of open goals and generally projecting an aura of vulnerability and incompetence.

    Whatever the result on Thursday many of us who want a Tory win will not forget how much uncertainty and concern she has caused us and this makes us seriously doubt her abilities going forward.
    To be fair to May, I think she is a better administrator than she is a campaigner. Given the pitfalls of the Home Office, she survived longer than any other modern politician in that role - you only have to look at the many people who held that office under Blair and Brown and how frequently they left it under a cloud.

    She is not a campaigner - but she is the only viable PM candidate we have on offer in 4 days time.
    With hindsight we were looking in the wrong place for a repeat of the TBGB dysfunctional dynamic that existed under New Labour. It was May as Home Secretary who was plotting and scheming and using her office to position herself for the top job.
    I don't think she's that clever.
This discussion has been closed.