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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON majority still an 80% betting chance

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  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    To be scrupulously fair, what we have seen tonight is a man who will stand by his principles when the personal and political advantage to him from resiling from them, just for 10 minutes, would be incalculable; and a woman of whom the same could not be said in light of her obfuscations over the dementia tax.

    Not complaining, just saying.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn anti nuclear? I'm shocked. Never thought I'd hear that. Not in a million years.

    Surely there was a big fuss 18 months or so ago over precisely the issue of whether Corbyn would retaliate against a nuclear attack?

    Doesn't anyone else remember it?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    Jonathan said:

    Boris going on about the logic of deterrents.

    I'm the age of suicide bombers, that logic no longer applies


    Food for thought.

    Not every threat is a suicidal terrorist. You have to defend against all threats, or as many as you can, not only the one that most recently occurred.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    See you in 2022

    Im going back to being a full time carer
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,343

    1) Don't underestimate the crapness of Mrs May

    2) I'm fairly certain most of the polls released tomorrow will have fieldwork that ended before tonight's QT, so expect a lot more bed wetting
    Please tell me when the uric miasma over PPB will dwindle. What with the guffawing and all, my eyes are constantly watering.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674

    Rob,reading this site for the last two weeks ,isn't helping my health ;-)

    You should listen to JohnO, JackW, and myself.
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225

    No matter the majority, Mrs May has fatally damaged her reputation among Tories.

    It's a question of

    1) When she goes in the next Parliament

    2) Is it at a time of her own choosing
    But a victory is a mandate. A Corbyn victory of 1 gives him a mandate.
    Of course a Corbyn minority govt is not a mandate and a coalition with the Nats woukd mesn we would have a Nat mandate. Anyone ready for that? Never mind Trident ... Sturgeon us the nuclear option.

    Only one issue has stirred up trouble for May and the govt and that is social care and that is a good bring honest with the people policy.

    We now have Corbyn and his chief cheerleader attacking small businesses. But they themselves attacked the budget over NI equalisation for self employed!!!
    Oh and that was Hammond (long time favourite on this board) NOT Mrs May.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    Our nukes, their missiles.
    Why can't we use French missiles ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,079
    Ishmael_Z said:

    To be scrupulously fair, what we have seen tonight is a man who will stand by his principles when the personal and political advantage to him from resiling from them, just for 10 minutes, would be incalculable; and a woman of whom the same could not be said in light of her obfuscations over the dementia tax.

    Not complaining, just saying.

    Unfortunately very few can stay absolutely true to their principles at all times and win a general election
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    BOOM!!

    That's a nuclear bomb to you Corbyn - oh no you will wait for Britain to be wiped out first - thanks for coming!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    surbiton said:

    Why can't we use French missiles ?
    Could do :p
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Incidentally, Corbyn was just as absurd about nuclear deterrence in the infamous Woman's Hour interview, but it got buried under the tsunami of derision about his childcare costings.

    Q: On Trident, who should voters believe? The Labour manifesto, which is in favour? Or you, who are against?

    Corbyn says the Labour party has committed to Trident.

    But they are agreed a nuclear war would be disastrous.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/30/general-election-2017-may-corbyn-paxman-snp-manifesto-politics-live?page=with:block-592d4043e4b00493c827772c

    'A nuclear war would be disastrous'. Deep analysis, eh?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Unfortunately very few can stay absolutely true to their principles at all times and win a general election
    Because we are all hypocrites ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    glw said:

    Not every threat is a suicidal terrorist. You have to defend against all threats, or as many as you can, not only the one that most recently occurred.
    What focussing on actual threats rather than cold war movie threats?

    These days anyone mad enough to want to use a nuclear weapons is far too mad to be deterred from using them from the threat of death. The like death. They seek death.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    MaxPB said:

    And can we block her stupid ideas (grammar schools, dementia tax, racial pay charter, energy cap).
    The first two of those are not stupid at all, just very badly presented.
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    RobD said:

    We've been told endlessly she doesn't have a mandate.
    By TSE.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    Thread...

    https://twitter.com/matthewdancona/status/870753908112621568
    *claps*
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    @bigjohnowls A left-wing leader with none of the problematic Trident/IRA views would romp home. I'd probably be voting for them, given May's deficiencies. Take that from the GE. Labour has a lot to smile about, despite my incessant moaning over the last week or so.

    I could maybe vote for a modernised form of Old Labour, but that isn't what we are being sold. The Labour party is infested with the middle class champagne socialist disease caring more about frigging Palestine and than Peterborough. And I don't see how that is going to change any time soon.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    A small majority and this campaign should teach that lesson.

    The Cabinet to ensure it is learnt.
    And what's their answer to the populist rage that's everywhere? There was an almost comical editorial in The Economist that sounded like the Ancien Regime in about 1780.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    surbiton said:

    First gay leader ? Not even the first Tory gay leader !
    Openly?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Labour will bankrupt our country and will lead us to nuclear wipeout!

    Don't risk it!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079

    In very extreme cases, you might use it to a limited extent.
    The best deterrent is to have a credible threat and promise that any person who authorised a nuclear strike would themselves die. If you want to be immoral, you could extend that threat to their family and relations. Then the guilty party suffers, not millions of innocents.

    Many on this thread think that Corbyn has blown it. I don't think so at all. There are some genuine warmongers in the population but not that many.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    TMA1 said:

    Its the only good thing Trump has done. But its not a Chinese hoax. It was started by NASA (James Hansen). And followed up by anybody who could get a grant out of it.
    The idea of global warming (whether true or otherwise) goes back a long way before James Hansen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553

    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    You should listen to JohnO, JackW, and myself.
    Of all the Cameroon commentators you make me the most petrified. :D
    If we're to stop Corbyn's dangerous nonsense our broad church from Clarke to Carswell has to compromise around Mrs May - crucially, for now.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    @bigjohnowls A left-wing leader with none of the problematic Trident/IRA views would romp home. I'd probably be voting for them, given May's deficiencies. Take that from the GE. Labour has a lot to smile about, despite my incessant moaning over the last week or so.

    A Labour leader who was proud of his/her country, who was pro brexit and tough on immigration would romp home.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    glw said:

    Not every threat is a suicidal terrorist. You have to defend against all threats, or as many as you can, not only the one that most recently occurred.
    We will nuke Salman Abedi. Sorry it is bit too late.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    All he had to,say was that if the uk faced an undistiuble threat of attack he would act he would act in our best interests
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Success equals performance minus anticipation.

    A 40 seat majority against Corbyn is a bit shite.
    Memories are short. A leaderene with a 50+ majority under her belt and the power of patronage is going to look very different from the way she looks now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,332

    A Labour leader who was proud of his/her country, who was pro brexit and tough on immigration would romp home.
    GE2022 is your chance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Interesting how Trident has been a constant issue in the last several elections. In the French election nukes barely came up at all. Melenchon certainly didn't speak out against them. Likewise, I don't recall Sanders making it a part of his campaign. Why is it always such an issue here?

    It's only ever been a real issue here since one of the genuine candidates for PM said he'd never use it.

    Previously was a fringe issue brought into debates by Green and SNP, raising the cost of it against things like NHS spending.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2017

    The first two of those are not stupid at all, just very badly presented.
    The fourth as well, because it isn't an energy price-cap and is not at all the same as Ed Miliband's daft idea.

    Still, they were political bear-traps she didn't need to walk into.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,332
    Barnesian said:

    The best deterrent is to have a credible threat and promise that any person who authorised a nuclear strike would themselves die. If you want to be immoral, you could extend that threat to their family and relations. Then the guilty party suffers, not millions of innocents.

    Many on this thread think that Corbyn has blown it. I don't think so at all. There are some genuine warmongers in the population but not that many.
    I wouldn't argue their use is always immoral.

    Hiroshima was very nasty, but defendable.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    Jonathan said:

    What focussing on actual threats rather than cold war movie threats?

    These days anyone mad enough to want to use a nuclear weapons is far too mad to be deterred from using them from the threat of death. The like death. They seek death.
    Even with nuclear weapons the threats range from essentially sensible states like China and Russia, who we assume deterrence will work against, to highly irrational states like North Korea who might nuke a neighbour out of the blue.

    If something doesn't work in all situations it doesn't follow that it works in none.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,332

    And what's their answer to the populist rage that's everywhere? There was an almost comical editorial in The Economist that sounded like the Ancien Regime in about 1780.
    An end to austerity as soon as possible, and a return to real wage growth.

    Money.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited June 2017

    No matter the majority, Mrs May has fatally damaged her reputation among Tories.

    It's a question of

    1) When she goes in the next Parliament

    2) Is it at a time of her own choosing
    I think she'll convince herself that she was brave by taking on the social care stuff and hence she got a fair and honest mandate. But it was poor planning and communication that did for it.

    I agree, IF she gets a majority she still needs to go in the next parliament. No way can she go through another election campaign again.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Well, I suppose a week is a long time in politics, but frankly, I think this is over.

    Until the next poll.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    surbiton said:

    Until the next poll.
    https://www.channel4.com/news/tories-target-seat-held-by-labour-since-1923
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,079

    GE2022 is your chance.
    Unfortunately for Labour though Corbyn may not have done well enough to win but he will also not do badly enough to lose the leadership
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    chrisb said:

    The same could be said of foreign aid. I was hoping May might have made that point when questioned on it tonight.
    Yes I agree about foreign aid. TBH I would prefer us to be a bit more self centred when giving it..
    Except emergency aid and we could give a bit more of that as a proportion.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    The first two of those are not stupid at all, just very badly presented.
    I'd rather the money be invested in expanding T-Levels and vocational education rather than grammar schools. I think if we fix the former the latter won't be necessary.

    The dementia tax is an attack on property rights. It's not the policy of a Conservative or conservative. As I said we'd have been better off making pesnioners pay for it via real terms cuts in the state pension until such time as there is enough money to pay for social care. 1% absolute rises per year for 5 years would be enough on the current maths.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,079
    surbiton said:

    Because we are all hypocrites ?
    Most of us to some degree
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    surbiton said:

    Because we are all hypocrites ?
    No. Because in a democracy we have to make compromises - and that also explains why it's perfectly possible to get contradictory policies. Now in an autocracy....
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    surbiton said:

    Why can't we use French missiles ?
    1. Because they're not as good, poor range.
    2. Because they are stupidly expensive, the low numbers mean that R&D costs are spread over a far smaller number of missiles.

    The more apt question would be "why don't the French use American missiles?" To which some reply that national pride drove them towards developing their own ... but the real reason is that the Americans don't trust them with the design.

    WillS
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Just got newsnight on, it's a good thing no one watches it, this Labour guy is awful.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    Mrs May seemed quite nice in a house-mistressy sort of way*

    (*Someone found at boarding schools-not Versailles)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    chrisb said:

    The same could be said of foreign aid. I was hoping May might have made that point when questioned on it tonight.
    Yep and it was an open goal given that she has already committed to maintaining the 0.7% of GDP. These sorts of things should be trumpeted far and wide as they are positives which will cut through in what has been a thoroughly negative campaign so far from all sides.
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225

    FPT

    The issue of Trident isn't simply just the mechanics of deterrent.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/870745616133103616

    Thats JUST what I said earlier.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    If a situation arose where pushing the button would save lives net, I would push it. That's what Corbyn had to say tonight.

    But if anyone out there believes that our nuclear weapons deter in any way the kind of nutters we face today, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    An end to austerity as soon as possible, and a return to real wage growth.

    Money.
    To be achieved how?
  • GE2022 is your chance.
    The risk for Labour is that some dim Corbynite is installed as the next leader - Angela Rayner, for example, if Corbs doesn't get an absolute doing on Thursday.

    A half decent Labour leader would have walked this against TMay and the manifesto from hell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    rcs1000 said:

    The idea of global warming (whether true or otherwise) goes back a long way before James Hansen.
    John Tyndall?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    A Labour leader who was proud of his/her country, who was pro brexit and tough on immigration would romp home.
    A Labour UKIP leader who was proud of his/her country, who was pro brexit and tough on immigration would romp home.

    Corrected.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273

    I think she'll convince herself that she was brave by taking on the social care stuff and hence she got a fair and honest mandate. But it was poor planning and communication that did for it.

    I agree, IF she gets a majority she still needs to go in the next parliament. No way can she go through another election campaign again.

    If she wins a majority I think she needs to shake up her advisers and her team. Also maybe look at herself, her style of governing as well though that would be much harder to change.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Roger said:

    Mrs May seemed quite nice in a house-mistressy sort of way*

    (*Someone found at boarding schools-not Versailles)

    She really is like Brown. Quite a moral person, haunted by the ghosts of childhood, hugely ambitious and out of their depth.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Jonathan said:

    If a situation arose where pushing the button would save lives net, I would push it. That's what Corbyn had to say tonight.

    But if anyone out there believes that our nuclear weapons deter in any way the kind of nutters we face today, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

    Serious question unrelated to Corbyn. Do you not think that the fact the UK and France have nuclear weapons has been or might be at least a small deterrent to Putin if the US becomes increasingly estranged from Europe?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Memories are short. A leaderene with a 50+ majority under her belt and the power of patronage is going to look very different from the way she looks now.
    She was much less waffley and flustered tonight.

    She would be several points better off if she hadnt dodged the debates.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Serious question unrelated to Corbyn. Do you not think that the fact the UK and France have nuclear weapons has been or might be at least a small deterrent to Putin if the US becomes increasingly estranged from Europe?
    Not at all.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    If a situation arose where pushing the button would save lives net, I would push it. That's what Corbyn had to say tonight.

    But if anyone out there believes that our nuclear weapons deter in any way the kind of nutters we face today, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

    The deterrent is to deter nuclear attacks primarily, although the annexation of Crimea would have been unlikely to have happened if they had not unilaterally disarmed.
    Just because it doesn't stop terror attacks doesn't mean we should throw the baby out with the bathwater. We need the right tool for the right job.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    The risk for Labour is that some dim Corbynite is installed as the next leader - Angela Rayner, for example, if Corbs doesn't get an absolute doing on Thursday.

    A half decent Labour leader would have walked this against TMay and the manifesto from hell.
    No doubt CCHQ have also learnt some lessons from this debacle.

    Surely....
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Thursday can't come fast enough my nerves are shattered I really hope the polling in the next few days shows something of a swing back to the Tories. How many will have watched the BBC debate tonight how much press coverage will it get over the weekend . Will it move that many votes ? hopefully it can stem the tide of momentum that Corbyn has at the moment. at this stage I'll just be happy at the exit poll when I hear the words " Conservative majority"
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    surbiton said:

    Because we are all hypocrites ?
    Exactly. Hypocrite lecteur, mon semblable, mon frere as the other TSE put it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear. I know it's a comic, but...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/870762466111827969
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jonathan said:

    If a situation arose where pushing the button would save lives net, I would push it. That's what Corbyn had to say tonight.

    But if anyone out there believes that our nuclear weapons deter in any way the kind of nutters we face today, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

    Corbyn is principled. But he is not smart. Ironically, the first bit makes him popular.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    Incidentally, Corbyn was just as absurd about nuclear deterrence in the infamous Woman's Hour interview ...

    Infamy, infamy!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    She was much less waffley and flustered tonight.

    She would be several points better off if she hadnt dodged the debates.
    I think Lynton gave her a lot of coaching for tonight, not sure she would have been able to handle the debates.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:

    I'd be curious to know how often innocent people are then done for something else due to their DNA being on the database.
    There have been cases of things like a man bought in for drinking and driving gives a fingerprint or DNA match for an unsolved murder from 20 years ago, not sure how deleting his DNA if he's innocent of the drink driving charge stops the police making a match though.

    I'd imagine the issue under discussion is the other way around - if they arrest a friend of last week's terrorist, but have to let him go and delete his record. A year later another bomb turns up with his DNA all over it, but the police can't match the samples to that guy any more because he wasn't charged.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    kjohnw said:

    Thursday can't come fast enough my nerves are shattered I really hope the polling in the next few days shows something of a swing back to the Tories. How many will have watched the BBC debate tonight how much press coverage will it get over the weekend . Will it move that many votes ? hopefully it can stem the tide of momentum that Corbyn has at the moment. at this stage I'll just be happy at the exit poll when I hear the words " Conservative majority"

    Debates last time didn't move the polls at all. And the polls maybe totally out anyway.

    Only five days and twenty-three hours until the bongs at ten.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Jonathan said:

    If a situation arose where pushing the button would save lives net, I would push it. That's what Corbyn had to say tonight.

    But if anyone out there believes that our nuclear weapons deter in any way the kind of nutters we face today, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

    The problem is the conditional "save lives net". One half of that is certain - millions of innocents will die from the nuclear strike(s). The other half, the lives thereby saved, is an unprovable hypothetical. And used as a post rationalisation for a criminal act.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    Jonathan said:

    No doubt CCHQ have also learnt some lessons from this debacle.

    Surely....

    I bloody well hope so. Unless they win by a huge margin there should be no celebrating the success of the campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    RobD said:

    No doubt CCHQ have also learnt some lessons from this debacle.

    Surely....
    Printing out Nick Timothy's P45 ?
  • HYUFD said:

    Unfortunately very few can stay absolutely true to their principles at all times and win a general election
    Nor should they. We have a Parliamentary system, and all PMs lead a coalition even if that's a single party. We have MPs who may be similarly minded within a party but are not and should not be identical. When you're party leader, you get a lot of what you want, but you're not meant to be there representing the May Party or the Corbyn Party - you're there for the Conservatives or Labour (or whoever) on an agreed platform which should not be your personal reckonings alone.

    Part of the problem is May doesn't like it, and Corbyn doesn't understand it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    glw said:

    I bloody well hope so. Unless they win by a huge margin there should be no celebrating the success of the campaign.
    Even if they win by a huge margin....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    MaxPB said:

    I'd rather the money be invested in expanding T-Levels and vocational education rather than grammar schools. I think if we fix the former the latter won't be necessary.

    The dementia tax is an attack on property rights. It's not the policy of a Conservative or conservative. As I said we'd have been better off making pesnioners pay for it via real terms cuts in the state pension until such time as there is enough money to pay for social care. 1% absolute rises per year for 5 years would be enough on the current maths.
    It is not a tax and is a very big improvement on the current situation. Plus you will be hitting the poorest pensioners (those with only the state pension to rely on) hardest unless you are suggesting stealing money from people's private pension funds a la Gordon Brown.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    A half decent Labour leader would have walked this against TMay and the manifesto from hell.

    Many people are saying this, but I'm not sure it's true.

    The reason for this is precisely because Corbyn's appeal is that he is bonkers and the Labour manifesto was written by the tooth-fairy. If Labour had a sensible leader, the manifesto would be more sensible, and therefore lose its appeal. The only reason that Labour have done as well as they have over the past few weeks is that no-one in the media took their manifesto seriously, so it has had zero scrutiny, whereas everything Theresa May has proposed is treated as likely to actually happen, downside and all.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    TMA1 said:

    Yes I agree about foreign aid. TBH I would prefer us to be a bit more self centred when giving it..
    Except emergency aid and we could give a bit more of that as a proportion.
    Emergency aid should be our military turning up with logistics, engineers and supplies, supported by well known NGOs like the Red Cross and Red Crescent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    Scott_P said:
    More Blunder Woman than Wonder Woman.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,332
    Scott_P said:
    Oh dear.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017

    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    True, but not in the way he thinks...

    https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/870763542764437504
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    kjohnw said:

    at this stage I'll just be happy at the exit poll when I hear the words " Conservative majority"

    Remember the exit poll failed last time on the small detail of whether the Tories would have a majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    surbiton said:

    A Labour UKIP leader who was proud of his/her country, who was pro brexit and tough on immigration would romp home.

    Corrected.
    Lol. If we've learnt anything from this election it is that the "Labour" brand is incredibly incredibly strong.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    surbiton said:

    A Labour UKIP leader who was proud of his/her country, who was pro brexit and tough on immigration would romp home.

    Corrected.
    labour could afford to lose far left voters who thinks we should have open borders to the rest of the world and still romp it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Chris said:

    Remember the exit poll failed last time on the small detail of whether the Tories would have a majority.
    Has there been an exit poll predicting a majority that was wrong? Maybe in some of the close elections in the past?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    More Blunder Woman than Wonder Woman.
    Is the J for Joker?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    It is not a tax and is a very big improvement on the current situation. Plus you will be hitting the poorest pensioners (those with only the state pension to rely on) hardest unless you are suggesting stealing money from people's private pension funds a la Gordon Brown.
    The hit on pensions will collectively be very small but will save the government billions to pay for social care which is disproportionately spent in pensioners. Working people already pay too much tax.

    How confiscation of all but £100k of one's home equity isn't a tax is not clear to me. It is also an untenable attack in property and inheritance rights.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Sandpit said:

    There have been cases of things like a man bought in for drinking and driving gives a fingerprint or DNA match for an unsolved murder from 20 years ago, not sure how deleting his DNA if he's innocent of the drink driving charge stops the police making a match though.

    I'd imagine the issue under discussion is the other way around - if they arrest a friend of last week's terrorist, but have to let him go and delete his record. A year later another bomb turns up with his DNA all over it, but the police can't match the samples to that guy any more because he wasn't charged.
    Only the DNA of convicted criminals ought to be kept on the database in my opinion, even if that makes it more difficult to trace people later on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,332

    To be achieved how?
    Pay off the deficit, obtain new tech, productivity, good education, good infrastructure, and be flexible on wages, investment, re/predistribution, taxes, business incentives, and find a better way of taxing net wealth, without robbing peoples homes.

    Something for everyone there.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Jonathan said:

    Not at all.
    In that case we really do disagree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,079

    Nor should they. We have a Parliamentary system, and all PMs lead a coalition even if that's a single party. We have MPs who may be similarly minded within a party but are not and should not be identical. When you're party leader, you get a lot of what you want, but you're not meant to be there representing the May Party or the Corbyn Party - you're there for the Conservatives or Labour (or whoever) on an agreed platform which should not be your personal reckonings alone.

    Part of the problem is May doesn't like it, and Corbyn doesn't understand it.
    Even a President has to compromise with the legislature, as Trump found on healthcare
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Pay off the deficit, obtain new tech, productivity, good education, good infrastructure, and be flexible on wages, investment, re/predistribution, taxes, business incentives, and find a better way of taxing net wealth, without robbing peoples homes.

    Something for everyone there.
    I'm hoping they made that 2025 commitment on the deficit so they can beat it, and come to the 2022 election saying that they've cleared the deficit. Of course, that might just be an invitation for people to vote Labour :p
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yep and it was an open goal given that she has already committed to maintaining the 0.7% of GDP. These sorts of things should be trumpeted far and wide as they are positives which will cut through in what has been a thoroughly negative campaign so far from all sides.
    Is it true the government gives North Korea aid money as suggested by a member of the audience tonight ?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Scott_P said:
    It's all been a bit too much for The National. Daddy's hat's fallen off.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Chris said:

    Remember the exit poll failed last time on the small detail of whether the Tories would have a majority.
    The exit poll was much closer to the actual result than any opinion poll.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LawDavF: @carlgardner Just a shame my Ladybird guide to Nuclear Deterrence not yet published (or even written) just when it is needed most.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Yep and it was an open goal given that she has already committed to maintaining the 0.7% of GDP. These sorts of things should be trumpeted far and wide as they are positives which will cut through in what has been a thoroughly negative campaign so far from all sides.
    I don't think for anybody who is actually struggling personally that would be seen as a positive. I think they might justifiably feel we need to put our own house in order. So no, May is very aware that would go down like a lead balloon with the people she needs to attract.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    The exit poll was much closer to the actual result than any opinion poll.
    Maybe it's because I'm a nerd, but I wish the BBC would plot the change in their projection as the night goes on.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL I really think SNP could implode

    If we CON get 10 seats I am not upset if SLAB get 20
This discussion has been closed.