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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON majority still an 80% betting chance

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  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    It gives an internal mental justification to tick the filthy Tory box.
    One of us. One of us.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Ave_it said:

    LOL I really think SNP could implode

    If we CON get 10 seats I am not upset if SLAB get 20

    Where's the Scottish equivalent of Bootle? :p
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @bigjohnowls A left-wing leader with none of the problematic Trident/IRA views would romp home. I'd probably be voting for them, given May's deficiencies. Take that from the GE. Labour has a lot to smile about, despite my incessant moaning over the last week or so.

    A Labour leader who was proud of his/her country, who was pro brexit and tough on immigration would romp home.
    GE2022 is your chance.
    All along the realistic goal of this election is to keep the Con majority small enough to fear the following election, and to allow real scrutiny by the opposition.

    Ideally I would like the Tories to be in a minority government, but I will stick by my forecast of Con maj 76.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It gives an internal mental justification to tick the filthy Tory box.
    One of us. One of us.
    Did I ever tell you the story of Darth Crosby the Wise?.... :naughty:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Paul Mason: Corbyn HQ still preparing for a win or hung parliament.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    Yeah, but as a part of a fully-costed manifesto. Maybe one for 2022.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    No, better return NI to its original principles of funding pensions, healthcare and welfare
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    TBH I am depressed.

    There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle

    Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,

    I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.

    Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.

    My Account has not been hacked BTW

    If you'd selected Yvette Cooper as leader she'd be heading for Downing Street in a few days. I said so at the time of the leadership election.
    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
    LOL. Don't know where you get that idea.

    I don't share any of Plato's alt-right views or sympathy for Trump.

    Nor have I dramatically shifted from where I used to be. I've been anti-Corbyn from the period he was running for Labour leader. You act like I've only just recently become a Corbyn critic. I've been critical for a year and a half, and my position has been very consistient. I've also been consitient that I wouldn't vote for Labour under him, and am voting for a centre-left party this time round - LDs.

    Don't know why you or the others were so angry with me a few days ago for expressing views I've expressed for a long time. Presumably you thought despite by anti-Corbyn position, I'd still vote Labour, but I made clear at the start of the campaign I wouldn't do this.

    I'd vote for Yvette to be PM, if I could right now. Same with Ed M.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Go Max!

    I agree abolish NI

    And pay for it by abolishing tax credits which are not tax credits but handouts to spongers!!!!!

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,939
    Yorkcity said:

    chrisb said:

    The issue of Trident isn't simply just the mechanics of deterrent.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/870745616133103616

    The same could be said of foreign aid. I was hoping May might have made that point when questioned on it tonight.
    Yep and it was an open goal given that she has already committed to maintaining the 0.7% of GDP. These sorts of things should be trumpeted far and wide as they are positives which will cut through in what has been a thoroughly negative campaign so far from all sides.
    Is it true the government gives North Korea aid money as suggested by a member of the audience tonight ?
    No idea. I knew we gave it to India which I thought was dumb given their space programme but have never thought that individual examples of bad execution of a service was an excuse for abandoning it entirely. If it were we would have no public services at all.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Ave_it said:

    LOL I really think SNP could implode

    If we CON get 10 seats I am not upset if SLAB get 20

    John Harris has done another one of his videos, this time in Moray.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2017/jun/01/a-fishy-business-why-the-tories-are-back-in-scotland-video
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Ave_it

    Ave it you have totally lost it!

    The SNP are heading to a comfortable 50 seats without apparantly breaking sweat. If it turns into a hung parliament then they win. If it doesn't then they still win.

    So get used to it guys.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Yorkcity said:

    chrisb said:

    The issue of Trident isn't simply just the mechanics of deterrent.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/870745616133103616

    The same could be said of foreign aid. I was hoping May might have made that point when questioned on it tonight.
    Yep and it was an open goal given that she has already committed to maintaining the 0.7% of GDP. These sorts of things should be trumpeted far and wide as they are positives which will cut through in what has been a thoroughly negative campaign so far from all sides.
    Is it true the government gives North Korea aid money as suggested by a member of the audience tonight ?
    The USA did during the famine.

    Our stuff was English lessons for some of their government, and remedial training in phisiotherapy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/uk-gave-4-million-foreign-aid-north-korea-past-six-years/

    Fairly light "soft diplomacy" really. The "English lessons" may well have really been intelligence gathering too.

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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It gives an internal mental justification to tick the filthy Tory box.
    One of us. One of us.
    Did I ever tell you the story of Darth Crosby the Wise?.... :naughty:
    Go on....
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    surbiton said:

    Well, I suppose a week is a long time in politics, but frankly, I think this is over.

    Until the next poll.
    https://www.channel4.com/news/tories-target-seat-held-by-labour-since-1923
    Mansfield indeed!
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    The great thing about Corbyn during QT was his usual pivot trick caused the mishap. He started to waffle about Trident in an incredible way, a full 45 seconds of just pure gibberish getting onto world inequality at one point.

    That's when the audience started to get irritable and it went downhill rapidly from there.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,939
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The question is, what happens when TMay returns with a similar mandate to what she already has?

    No matter the majority, Mrs May has fatally damaged her reputation among Tories.

    It's a question of

    1) When she goes in the next Parliament

    2) Is it at a time of her own choosing
    And can we block her stupid ideas (grammar schools, dementia tax, racial pay charter, energy cap).
    The first two of those are not stupid at all, just very badly presented.
    I'd rather the money be invested in expanding T-Levels and vocational education rather than grammar schools. I think if we fix the former the latter won't be necessary.

    The dementia tax is an attack on property rights. It's not the policy of a Conservative or conservative. As I said we'd have been better off making pesnioners pay for it via real terms cuts in the state pension until such time as there is enough money to pay for social care. 1% absolute rises per year for 5 years would be enough on the current maths.
    It is not a tax and is a very big improvement on the current situation. Plus you will be hitting the poorest pensioners (those with only the state pension to rely on) hardest unless you are suggesting stealing money from people's private pension funds a la Gordon Brown.
    The hit on pensions will collectively be very small but will save the government billions to pay for social care which is disproportionately spent in pensioners. Working people already pay too much tax.

    How confiscation of all but £100k of one's home equity isn't a tax is not clear to me. It is also an untenable attack in property and inheritance rights.
    It is payment for a specific service. The alternative is to get other people to pay for the service for you through taxation even if the chances are they will never need it. Which is in my mind far worse than being made to pay for it yourself if you have the funds available. What you are advocating is a form of old age sponging. Which I note you were happy to attack in an earlier posting.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    It also happened closer to 10pm rather than 9pm.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    just promise to raise the income tax allowence again paid for by cuts to sponger benefits.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,975
    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    The only thing that matters is the clips that appear continually on the news - the actual show is always irrelevant only the repeated clips (for good or ill) matter..
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    scotslass said:

    The SNP are heading to a comfortable 50 seats

    You think losing 9% of their seats is a "win"...

    That's what I call expectations management :smiley:
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,939

    surbiton said:

    Well, I suppose a week is a long time in politics, but frankly, I think this is over.

    Until the next poll.
    https://www.channel4.com/news/tories-target-seat-held-by-labour-since-1923
    Mansfield indeed!
    I pointed that out earlier this evening!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The question is, what happens when TMay returns with a similar mandate to what she already has?

    No matter the majority, Mrs May has fatally damaged her reputation among Tories.

    It's a question of

    1) When she goes in the next Parliament

    2) Is it at a time of her own choosing
    And can we block her stupid ideas (grammar schools, dementia tax, racial pay charter, energy cap).
    The first two of those are not stupid at all, just very badly presented.
    I'd rather the money be invested in expanding T-Levels and vocational education rather than grammar schools. I think if we fix the former the latter won't be necessary.

    The dementia tax is an attack on property rights. It's not the policy of a Conservative or conservative. As I said we'd have been better off making pesnioners pay for it via real terms cuts in the state pension until such time as there is enough money to pay for social care. 1% absolute rises per year for 5 years would be enough on the current maths.
    It is not a tax and is a very big improvement on the current situation. Plus you will be hitting the poorest pensioners (those with only the state pension to rely on) hardest unless you are suggesting stealing money from people's private pension funds a la Gordon Brown.
    The hit on pensions will collectively be very small but will save the government billions to pay for social care which is disproportionately spent in pensioners. Working people already pay too much tax.

    How confiscation of all but £100k of one's home equity isn't a tax is not clear to me. It is also an untenable attack in property and inheritance rights.
    It is payment for a specific service. The alternative is to get other people to pay for the service for you through taxation even if the chances are they will never need it. Which is in my mind far worse than being made to pay for it yourself if you have the funds available. What you are advocating is a form of old age sponging. Which I note you were happy to attack in an earlier posting.
    As I said, pay for it by limiting the state pension to 1% annual rises for around 5 years. Collectively this will raise/save a lot of money but individuals will barely feel it.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,966

    Jonathan said:

    If a situation arose where pushing the button would save lives net, I would push it. That's what Corbyn had to say tonight.

    But if anyone out there believes that our nuclear weapons deter in any way the kind of nutters we face today, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

    Serious question unrelated to Corbyn. Do you not think that the fact the UK and France have nuclear weapons has been or might be at least a small deterrent to Putin if the US becomes increasingly estranged from Europe?
    Yes.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    scotslass said:

    Ave_it

    Ave it you have totally lost it!

    The SNP are heading to a comfortable 50 seats without apparantly breaking sweat. If it turns into a hung parliament then they win. If it doesn't then they still win.

    So get used to it guys.

    Ave it, lost it ! Rhymes well. He lost it when he stopped voting Labour. Then again, he supports Watford.................
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,939
    Ave_it said:

    Go Max!

    I agree abolish NI

    And pay for it by abolishing tax credits which are not tax credits but handouts to spongers!!!!!

    I did notice today that if you have 3 children in childcare you can earn up to £65,000 a year and still get tax credits. That is seriously f***ked up.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    I agree we over egg the direct effect. But the indirect effect is the impact on morale and momentum.

    The surge from corbyn this last few weeks has been incredible. Now the Tories have a clear strategy to attack him and it has been described on this site well by Richard Nabavi.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It gives an internal mental justification to tick the filthy Tory box.
    One of us. One of us.
    Did I ever tell you the story of Darth Crosby the Wise?.... :naughty:
    Go on....
    I thought not. It's not a story the lefties would tell you. It's a PB Tory Legend. Darth Crosby was a Dark Lord of the Polls, so powerful and so wise he could use his targeted advertising to influence the voters to create Tory majorities…

    :p
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    Yeah, the debates in 2015 didn't do a thing to change the polls. Even after Miliband's reply about spending too much,
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    surbiton said:

    Well, I suppose a week is a long time in politics, but frankly, I think this is over.

    Until the next poll.
    https://www.channel4.com/news/tories-target-seat-held-by-labour-since-1923
    Mansfield indeed!
    I pointed that out earlier this evening!
    I have been busy with brandy in my local hostelry. As a possible Con gain?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IIRC Abbott wanted to wipe the DNA of innocent people.

    Under current rules if you're arrested for a trigger offence, your DNA is taken.

    But if no charges are brought or the person is found not guilty, Abbott wanted that person's record wiping.
    I'd be curious to know how often innocent people are then done for something else due to their DNA being on the database.
    There have been cases of things like a man bought in for drinking and driving gives a fingerprint or DNA match for an unsolved murder from 20 years ago, not sure how deleting his DNA if he's innocent of the drink driving charge stops the police making a match though.

    I'd imagine the issue under discussion is the other way around - if they arrest a friend of last week's terrorist, but have to let him go and delete his record. A year later another bomb turns up with his DNA all over it, but the police can't match the samples to that guy any more because he wasn't charged.
    Only the DNA of convicted criminals ought to be kept on the database in my opinion, even if that makes it more difficult to trace people later on.
    I agree, with the exception of terrorism offences. These things in practice are more difficult than they are in theory, unfortunately.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    scotslass said:

    The SNP are heading to a comfortable 50 seats

    You think losing 9% of their seats is a "win"...

    That's what I call expectations management :smiley:
    Considering their starting point is 56, yes !
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893
    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    So who's paying for the social care?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    So who's paying for the social care?
    Tax pensions at 100%!
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2017
    eek said:

    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    The only thing that matters is the clips that appear continually on the news - the actual show is always irrelevant only the repeated clips (for good or ill) matter..
    The bit with the partial sighted girl will be good for TV. She was nearly breaking down.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,404
    Scott_P said:
    I should have copyrighted 'Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown'
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    Catching up with QT.

    I think Theresa did well. Easily her most assured performance of the campaign.

    She dealt with the emotional partially sighted lady very well.

    Now on to Jezz!
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IIRC Abbott wanted to wipe the DNA of innocent people.

    Under current rules if you're arrested for a trigger offence, your DNA is taken.

    But if no charges are brought or the person is found not guilty, Abbott wanted that person's record wiping.
    I'd be curious to know how often innocent people are then done for something else due to their DNA being on the database.
    There have been cases of things like a man bought in for drinking and driving gives a fingerprint or DNA match for an unsolved murder from 20 years ago, not sure how deleting his DNA if he's innocent of the drink driving charge stops the police making a match though.

    I'd imagine the issue under discussion is the other way around - if they arrest a friend of last week's terrorist, but have to let him go and delete his record. A year later another bomb turns up with his DNA all over it, but the police can't match the samples to that guy any more because he wasn't charged.
    Only the DNA of convicted criminals ought to be kept on the database in my opinion, even if that makes it more difficult to trace people later on.
    I agree, with the exception of terrorism offences. These things in practice are more difficult than they are in theory, unfortunately.

    And they create an awful lot of noise.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    GIN1138 said:

    Catching up with QT.

    I think Theresa did well. Easily her most assured performance of the campaign.

    She dealt with the emotional partially sighted lady very well.

    Now on to Jezz!

    Unrelated question....

    Have you got popcorn on standby?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    TBH I am depressed.

    There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle

    Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,

    I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.

    Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.

    My Account has not been hacked BTW

    If you'd selected Yvette Cooper as leader she'd be heading for Downing Street in a few days. I said so at the time of the leadership election.
    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
    LOL. Don't know where you get that idea.

    I don't share any of Plato's alt-right views or sympathy for Trump.

    Nor have I dramatically shifted from where I used to be. I've been anti-Corbyn from the period he was running for Labour leader. You act like I've only just recently become a Corbyn critic. I've been critical for a year and a half, and my position has been very consistient. I've also been consitient that I wouldn't vote for Labour under him, and am voting for a centre-left party this time round - LDs.

    Don't know why you or the others were so angry with me a few days ago for expressing views I've expressed for a long time. Presumably you thought despite by anti-Corbyn position, I'd still vote Labour, but I made clear at the start of the campaign I wouldn't do this.

    I'd vote for Yvette to be PM, if I could right now. Same with Ed M.
    That's why I am worried. I too voted for Yvette and for Ed Miliband, who was a very thoughtful leader. Of course, we judge people in this country on whether they can eat sandwiches or not and having a prying camera with a long lens ready.

    But I always stay loyal to my party.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,939

    surbiton said:

    Well, I suppose a week is a long time in politics, but frankly, I think this is over.

    Until the next poll.
    https://www.channel4.com/news/tories-target-seat-held-by-labour-since-1923
    Mansfield indeed!
    I pointed that out earlier this evening!
    I have been busy with brandy in my local hostelry. As a possible Con gain?
    No. I am not that brave. I was pointing out how ridiculous it seemed to be campaigning in a seat that has been Labour since 1923 and has had the same sitting MP (who is standing again) since 1987.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    scotslass said:

    Ave_it

    Ave it you have totally lost it!

    The SNP are heading to a comfortable 50 seats without apparantly breaking sweat. If it turns into a hung parliament then they win. If it doesn't then they still win.

    So get used to it guys.

    If the SNP poll below the 45% Yes got in 2014 it will certainly not be great news for the SNP, especially if combined with Angus Robertson losing his seat
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    surbiton said:

    scotslass said:

    Ave_it

    Ave it you have totally lost it!

    The SNP are heading to a comfortable 50 seats without apparantly breaking sweat. If it turns into a hung parliament then they win. If it doesn't then they still win.

    So get used to it guys.

    Ave it, lost it ! Rhymes well. He lost it when he stopped voting Labour. Then again, he supports Watford.................
    Scotslass and Surbiton good luck with that!

    SNP 45 max more likely 35

    Surbiton = :lol: (as usual)
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,285

    eek said:

    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    The only thing that matters is the clips that appear continually on the news - the actual show is always irrelevant only the repeated clips (for good or ill) matter..
    The bit with the partial sighted girl will be good for TV. She was nearly breaking down.
    I do not think that will be the story.

    It will be interesting to see if the journalists start chasing Corbyn and harassing him about nuclear at his appearances this weekend
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The question is, what happens when TMay returns with a similar mandate to what she already has?

    No matter the majority, Mrs May has fatally damaged her reputation among Tories.

    It's a question of

    1) When she goes in the next Parliament

    2) Is it at a time of her own choosing
    And can we block her stupid ideas (grammar schools, dementia tax, racial pay charter, energy cap).
    The first two of those are not stupid at all, just very badly presented.
    I'd rather the money be invested in expanding T-Levels and vocational education rather than grammar schools. I think if we fix the former the latter won't be necessary.

    The dementia tax is an attack on property rights. It's not the policy of a Conservative or conservative. As I said we'd have been better off making pesnioners pay for it via real terms cuts in the state pension until such time as there is enough money to pay for social care. 1% absolute rises per year for 5 years would be enough on the current maths.
    It is not a tax and is a very big improvement on the current situation. Plus you will be hitting the poorest pensioners (those with only the state pension to rely on) hardest unless you are suggesting stealing money from people's private pension funds a la Gordon Brown.
    The hit on pensions will collectively be very small but will save the government billions to pay for social care which is disproportionately spent in pensioners. Working people already pay too much tax.

    How confiscation of all but £100k of one's home equity isn't a tax is not clear to me. It is also an untenable attack in property and inheritance rights.
    That is gibberish. The fundamental rule is, if you contract with someone for personal services you pay them for those services; if you have to sell your house to raise the money, you have to sell your house. State intervention privileging n thousand pounds from being at risk is interference in your favour. It just looks like a tax to you because the caring business looks to you like the health business and you think it should work like the NHS. It doesn't. You are implicitly arguing for a huge extension of the welfare state but unless and until that happens, the dementia tax is no such thing.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes we will win Mansfield cheerio Meale

    And Derbyshire NE

    Not hopeful in Enfield N :lol:

  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    TBH I am depressed.

    There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle

    Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,

    I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.

    Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.

    My Account has not been hacked BTW

    If you'd selected Yvette Cooper as leader she'd be heading for Downing Street in a few days. I said so at the time of the leadership election.
    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
    LOL. Don't know where you get that idea.

    I don't share any of Plato's alt-right views or sympathy for Trump.

    Nor have I dramatically shifted from where I used to be. I've been anti-Corbyn from the period he was running for Labour leader. You act like I've only just recently become a Corbyn critic. I've been critical for a year and a half, and my position has been very consistient. I've also been consitient that I wouldn't vote for Labour under him, and am voting for a centre-left party this time round - LDs.

    Don't know why you or the others were so angry with me a few days ago for expressing views I've expressed for a long time. Presumably you thought despite by anti-Corbyn position, I'd still vote Labour, but I made clear at the start of the campaign I wouldn't do this.

    I'd vote for Yvette to be PM, if I could right now. Same with Ed M.
    That's why I am worried. I too voted for Yvette and for Ed Miliband, who was a very thoughtful leader. Of course, we judge people in this country on whether they can eat sandwiches or not and having a prying camera with a long lens ready.

    But I always stay loyal to my party.
    lol ,you were going to vote lib dem because you hate the tories more.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    TBH I am depressed.

    There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle

    Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,

    I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.

    Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.

    My Account has not been hacked BTW

    If you'd selected Yvette Cooper as leader she'd be heading for Downing Street in a few days. I said so at the time of the leadership election.
    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
    LOL. Don't know where you get that idea.

    I don't share any of Plato's alt-right views or sympathy for Trump.

    Nor have I dramatically shifted from where I used to be. I've been anti-Corbyn from the period he was running for Labour leader. You act like I've only just recently become a Corbyn critic. I've been critical for a year and a half, and my position has been very consistient. I've also been consitient that I wouldn't vote for Labour under him, and am voting for a centre-left party this time round - LDs.

    Don't know why you or the others were so angry with me a few days ago for expressing views I've expressed for a long time. Presumably you thought despite by anti-Corbyn position, I'd still vote Labour, but I made clear at the start of the campaign I wouldn't do this.

    I'd vote for Yvette to be PM, if I could right now. Same with Ed M.
    That's why I am worried. I too voted for Yvette and for Ed Miliband, who was a very thoughtful leader. Of course, we judge people in this country on whether they can eat sandwiches or not and having a prying camera with a long lens ready.

    But I always stay loyal to my party.
    Why? Even if they put forward vile filth as the top team you still would vote for them?

    So, the saying about donkeys and red rosettes turns out to be true.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Catching up with QT.

    I think Theresa did well. Easily her most assured performance of the campaign.

    She dealt with the emotional partially sighted lady very well.

    Now on to Jezz!

    Unrelated question....

    Have you got popcorn on standby?
    I'ts being delivered in the morning... ;)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,966
    Ave_it said:

    LOL I really think SNP could implode

    If we CON get 10 seats I am not upset if SLAB get 20

    I think it's quite likely that the Labour Party will be fourth (in seat terms) in Scotland.

    My guess would be:

    SNP 43
    Con 9
    LD 4
    Lab 3
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    surbiton said:

    Well, I suppose a week is a long time in politics, but frankly, I think this is over.

    Until the next poll.
    https://www.channel4.com/news/tories-target-seat-held-by-labour-since-1923
    Mansfield indeed!
    I pointed that out earlier this evening!
    I have been busy with brandy in my local hostelry. As a possible Con gain?
    No. I am not that brave. I was pointing out how ridiculous it seemed to be campaigning in a seat that has been Labour since 1923 and has had the same sitting MP (who is standing again) since 1987.
    It's either a sign of an ad-hoc, shambolic Tory campaign or a sign CCHQ is getting the sort of numbers we ain't seeing. We'll know this time next week,
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    TBH I am depressed.

    There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle

    Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,

    I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.

    Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.

    My Account has not been hacked BTW

    If you'd selected Yvette Cooper as leader she'd be heading for Downing Street in a few days. I said so at the time of the leadership election.
    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
    LOL. Don't know where you get that idea.

    I don't share any of Plato's alt-right views or sympathy for Trump.

    Nor have I dramatically shifted from where I used to be. I've been anti-Corbyn from the period he was running for Labour leader. You act like I've only just recently become a Corbyn critic. I've been critical for a year and a half, and my position has been very consistient. I've also been consitient that I wouldn't vote for Labour under him, and am voting for a centre-left party this time round - LDs.

    Don't know why you or the others were so angry with me a few days ago for expressing views I've expressed for a long time. Presumably you thought despite by anti-Corbyn position, I'd still vote Labour, but I made clear at the start of the campaign I wouldn't do this.

    I'd vote for Yvette to be PM, if I could right now. Same with Ed M.
    That's why I am worried. I too voted for Yvette and for Ed Miliband, who was a very thoughtful leader. Of course, we judge people in this country on whether they can eat sandwiches or not and having a prying camera with a long lens ready.

    But I always stay loyal to my party.
    lol ,you were going to vote lib dem because you hate the tories more.
    Must be weird basing your vote on which party you hate the most.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,939
    surbiton said:


    That's why I am worried. I too voted for Yvette and for Ed Miliband, who was a very thoughtful leader. Of course, we judge people in this country on whether they can eat sandwiches or not and having a prying camera with a long lens ready.

    But I always stay loyal to my party.

    That, if you will excuse me, is your error. You should stay loyal to your principles not to a party. If that party moves away from your principles or, as in this case, elects a leader who is clearly a liability (a fact only masked by the complete idiocy of May) and everyone moves with it out of loyalty then it is doomed. Better to stand on your principles in the hope others will stand with you. In that case it will be much easier to bring your party back to where you want it to be.

    My party right or wrong is just as bad as my country right or wrong.

    Of course I hate all political parties so I would say that :-)
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    TBH I am depressed.

    There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle

    Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,

    I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.

    Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.

    My Account has not been hacked BTW

    If you'd selected Yvette Cooper as leader she'd be heading for Downing Street in a few days. I said so at the time of the leadership election.
    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
    LOL. Don't know where you get that idea.

    I don't share any of Plato's alt-right views or sympathy for Trump.

    Nor have I dramatically shifted from where I used to be. I've been anti-Corbyn from the period he was running for Labour leader. You act like I've only just recently become a Corbyn critic. I've been critical for a year and a half, and my position has been very consistient. I've also been consitient that I wouldn't vote for Labour under him, and am voting for a centre-left party this time round - LDs.

    Don't know why you or the others were so angry with me a few days ago for expressing views I've expressed for a long time. Presumably you thought despite by anti-Corbyn position, I'd still vote Labour, but I made clear at the start of the campaign I wouldn't do this.

    I'd vote for Yvette to be PM, if I could right now. Same with Ed M.
    That's why I am worried. I too voted for Yvette and for Ed Miliband, who was a very thoughtful leader. Of course, we judge people in this country on whether they can eat sandwiches or not and having a prying camera with a long lens ready.

    But I always stay loyal to my party.
    I can't be loyal to Labour when I believe that Corbyn would genuinely be a bad thing for the country. I never thought that about either Yvette or Ed. Indeed, anyone outside Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott in the Labour party would be a great thing for this country given what a May Tory government looks like. Right now we need a moderate, centre-left government in this country more than ever, but Corbyn (and no one really) isn't offering that.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,285
    Michael Fallon in addition to attacking Corbyn on defence has announced that no higher rate taxpayers will pay anymore in raised tax under the conservatives
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    @paulmasonnews

    You know what. It's time somebody called out the dog whistle racism behind Tory insults to Diane Abbott and I just decided to do it
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    So who's paying for the social care?
    Tax pensions at 100%!
    Tax the contributions or the payments? Or do you mean eliminate the tax relief on contributions so that most people don't bother?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Now was this not a much fairer and balanced audience?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,939
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The question is, what happens when TMay returns with a similar mandate to what she already has?

    No matter the majority, Mrs May has fatally damaged her reputation among Tories.

    It's a question of

    1) When she goes in the next Parliament

    2) Is it at a time of her own choosing
    And can we block her stupid ideas (grammar schools, dementia tax, racial pay charter, energy cap).
    The first two of those are not stupid at all, just very badly presented.
    I'd rather the money be invested in expanding T-Levels and vocational education rather than grammar schools. I think if we fix the former the latter won't be necessary.

    The dementia tax is an attack on property rights. It's not the policy of a Conservative or conservative. As I said we'd have been better off making pesnioners pay for it via real terms cuts in the state pension until such time as there is enough money to pay for social care. 1% absolute rises per year for 5 years would be enough on the current maths.
    It is not a tax and is a very big improvement on the current situation. Plus you will be hitting the poorest pensioners (those with only the state pension to rely on) hardest unless you are suggesting stealing money from people's private pension funds a la Gordon Brown.
    The hit on pensions will collectively be very small but will save the government billions to pay for social care which is disproportionately spent in pensioners. Working people already pay too much tax.

    How confiscation of all but £100k of one's home equity isn't a tax is not clear to me. It is also an untenable attack in property and inheritance rights.
    That is gibberish. The fundamental rule is, if you contract with someone for personal services you pay them for those services; if you have to sell your house to raise the money, you have to sell your house. State intervention privileging n thousand pounds from being at risk is interference in your favour. It just looks like a tax to you because the caring business looks to you like the health business and you think it should work like the NHS. It doesn't. You are implicitly arguing for a huge extension of the welfare state but unless and until that happens, the dementia tax is no such thing.
    Wot he said :) Thanks Ishmael
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Scott_P said:
    Except May still had the guts to call an election less than a year into her Premiership unlike Gordon and it still looks like she will be returned to power after
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    AndyJS said:

    Paul Mason: Corbyn HQ still preparing for a win or hung parliament.

    Paul Mason...... Mark Senior has more credibility
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893
    nunu said:

    Now was this not a much fairer and balanced audience?

    Yes.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    rcs1000 said:

    Ave_it said:

    LOL I really think SNP could implode

    If we CON get 10 seats I am not upset if SLAB get 20

    I think it's quite likely that the Labour Party will be fourth (in seat terms) in Scotland.

    My guess would be:

    SNP 43
    Con 9
    LD 4
    Lab 3
    Nine.... nine seats.. *faints*
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017
    Watching QT on iPlayer now.

    1) Decent audience, more properly representative (seemingly)
    2) Someone put something in Tezza's tea. Bit of energy for once and much, much clearer.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    Important for Mulholland, "Conservatives can't win here" squeeze literature will have to have effort redoubled in Otley.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    marke09 said:

    @paulmasonnews

    You know what. It's time somebody called out the dog whistle racism behind Tory insults to Diane Abbott and I just decided to do it

    LOL. What?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Yorkcity said:

    chrisb said:

    The issue of Trident isn't simply just the mechanics of deterrent.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/870745616133103616

    The same could be said of foreign aid. I was hoping May might have made that point when questioned on it tonight.
    Yep and it was an open goal given that she has already committed to maintaining the 0.7% of GDP. These sorts of things should be trumpeted far and wide as they are positives which will cut through in what has been a thoroughly negative campaign so far from all sides.
    Is it true the government gives North Korea aid money as suggested by a member of the audience tonight ?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/uk-gave-4-million-foreign-aid-north-korea-past-six-years/
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    So who's paying for the social care?
    Tax pensions at 100%!
    Tax the contributions or the payments? Or do you mean eliminate the tax relief on contributions so that most people don't bother?
    There should be no tax on pension contributions or pensions cos that is what hard working people have paid for

    Thanks for capping my pension Osborne - I can't rely on share income from expensive wallpaper like some can!
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    How has Newsnight got the gall to have Mason back on as a pundit when he was their economics editor only a few years ago?

    He's not even a moderate pundit, he's an extremist. It should be quite embarrassing for them but apparently not.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Ashcroft gets to the crunch in his last focus group

    'If Jeremy Corbyn were a biscuit, what kind of biscuit would he be? “A Jammie Dodger. He dodges all the important questions.” “A Custard Cream. It’s not something you’d go, ‘ooh, I want a Custard Cream’. I’d take it if it was given to me, I wouldn’t choose it off the shelf.” “Bourbon. The kind that nobody really wants but it’s often the only one left.” “Hard tack army rations. They taste horrible, they don’t fill you up, they’re not much use for anything.” “A Digestive. You can dunk him and he tastes nicer.” What? “He’s a nice and comforting Digestive.”
    And if the Leader of the Opposition were a drink? “A smoothie or something, made out of something organic and foul.” “Ale. A down-to-earth pint. Something your dad would drink, your Grampy.” “Bitter lemon. Because he’s bitter, and a lemon.”
    What about if Theresa May were a drink? “Bailey’s or prosecco. Because she’s sophisticated, she’s classy.” “Strong builder’s tea that you forgot to drink and it’s gone cold.” “A glass of water. You need it to survive, but there’s nothing to it.” “A double vodka. Comes with a kick.”
    And if the Prime Minister were a biscuit? “A Marks & Spencer selection”. “A Viennese Whirl, or something like that.” “A chocolate Hobnob.” That’s a pretty fancy biscuit. “Well, she’s up herself, isn’t she, and so are chocolate Hobnobs.” “A Jaffa Cake. She’s nice on the outside, but I don’t like the middle of a Jaffa Cake.” “A cookie. They’re tough, and they crumble.” “One of them hard ones at the bottom of the tin that have been there six months. It looks quite nice but you bite it and break all your teeth.”
    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/lord-ashcroft-she-called-the-snap-election-and-cant-be-bothered-turning-up-to-it-my-final-general-election-focus-groups.html
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Michael Fallon in addition to attacking Corbyn on defence has announced that no higher rate taxpayers will pay anymore in raised tax under the conservatives

    Heh, if that's what it sounds like it doesn't sound like an election-winning new line of attack to me. How many of the (not terribly numerous as % of the population) higher-rate taxpayers were considering voting Corbyn in the hope he would protect them from evil Tory tax rises - and will now be reassured that it is safe to vote Conservative again?

    Doesn't this mean that the tax we all know needs to be raised is going to be squeezed out of other people? Like, erm, "ordinary people", JAMs and swing voters maybe?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    surbiton said:

    Well, I suppose a week is a long time in politics, but frankly, I think this is over.

    Until the next poll.
    https://www.channel4.com/news/tories-target-seat-held-by-labour-since-1923
    Mansfield indeed!
    Lab maj was only 5,000 with Cameron as Tory leader.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    TBH I am depressed.

    There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle

    Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,

    I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.

    Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.

    My Account has not been hacked BTW

    If you'd selected Yvette Cooper as leader she'd be heading for Downing Street in a few days. I said so at the time of the leadership election.
    YC couldnt even pick a colour of the nuclear button

    "Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"

    Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
    No, Andy is right.
    Yep. I voted for Yvette in 2015.
    Yet, I thought you were Plato reincarnated. But then again she also voted for Bliar.
    LOL. Don't know where you get that idea.

    I don't share any of Plato's alt-right views or sympathy for Trump.

    Nor have I dramatically shifted from where I used to be. I've been anti-Corbyn from the period he was running for Labour leader. You act like I've only just recently become a Corbyn critic. I've been critical for a year and a half, and my position has been very consistient. I've also been consitient that I wouldn't vote for Labour under him, and am voting for a centre-left party this time round - LDs.

    Don't know why you or the others were so angry with me a few days ago for expressing views I've expressed for a long time. Presumably you thought despite by anti-Corbyn position, I'd still vote Labour, but I made clear at the start of the campaign I wouldn't do this.

    I'd vote for Yvette to be PM, if I could right now. Same with Ed M.
    That's why I am worried. I too voted for Yvette and for Ed Miliband, who was a very thoughtful leader. Of course, we judge people in this country on whether they can eat sandwiches or not and having a prying camera with a long lens ready.

    But I always stay loyal to my party.
    lol ,you were going to vote lib dem because you hate the tories more.
    Must be weird basing your vote on which party you hate the most.
    Hmm To be fair to Surbiton Labour can't win in Surbiton though. So he needs to go with his next favourite choice to keep the party out that he doesn't want to win there.

    Just a feature of FPTP that a "top" preference can't be explicitly expressed.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Ishmael_Z said:

    That is gibberish. The fundamental rule is, if you contract with someone for personal services you pay them for those services; if you have to sell your house to raise the money, you have to sell your house. State intervention privileging n thousand pounds from being at risk is interference in your favour. It just looks like a tax to you because the caring business looks to you like the health business and you think it should work like the NHS. It doesn't. You are implicitly arguing for a huge extension of the welfare state but unless and until that happens, the dementia tax is no such thing.

    It is care and I don't see why it isn't funded in the same way as the NHS. It's not a huge extension of the welfare state since state provision already exists for social care, it is just chargeable until a person reaches "continuing care" and then it is paid for by the NHS.

    If we're going to have private provision then just go all in and have nothing available like it currently is, or if we're going to have a state healthcare service then do it that way. This halfway house is stupid and a completely stupid attack on property rights by a party which is supposed to be in favour of property rights.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Pulpstar said:



    Hmm To be fair to Surbiton Labour can't win in Surbiton though. So he needs to go with his next favourite choice to keep the party out that he doesn't want to win there.

    Just a feature of FPTP that a "top" preference can't be explicitly expressed.

    Well if you do that, Surbiton is guaranteed never to be Labour.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2017
    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/870767300881809408

    Paul Mason‏Verified account
    @paulmasonnews
    You know what. It's time somebody called out the dog whistle racism behind Tory insults to Diane Abbott and I just decided to do it
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    So who's paying for the social care?
    Tax pensions at 100%!
    Tax the contributions or the payments? Or do you mean eliminate the tax relief on contributions so that most people don't bother?
    Payments!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Interesting that we didn't have a poll on who won either of the debates.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Hmm To be fair to Surbiton Labour can't win in Surbiton though. So he needs to go with his next favourite choice to keep the party out that he doesn't want to win there.

    Just a feature of FPTP that a "top" preference can't be explicitly expressed.

    Well if you do that, Surbiton is guaranteed never to be Labour.
    That's life !
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/870767300881809408

    Paul Mason‏Verified account
    @paulmasonnews
    You know what. It's time somebody called out the dog whistle racism behind Tory insults to Diane Abbott and I just decided to do it

    Gosh he's such a dickhead.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,285

    Michael Fallon in addition to attacking Corbyn on defence has announced that no higher rate taxpayers will pay anymore in raised tax under the conservatives

    Heh, if that's what it sounds like it doesn't sound like an election-winning new line of attack to me. How many of the (not terribly numerous as % of the population) higher-rate taxpayers were considering voting Corbyn in the hope he would protect them from evil Tory tax rises - and will now be reassured that it is safe to vote Conservative again?

    Doesn't this mean that the tax we all know needs to be raised is going to be squeezed out of other people? Like, erm, "ordinary people", JAMs and swing voters maybe?
    Low corporation tax and attracting lots of business and start ups to invest in the economy, creating jobs paying tax for public services. That is how it works
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893
    edited June 2017
    Being shit at numbers is now racist, apparently.
    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870766960652558338
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,966
    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    RobD said:

    Interesting that we didn't have a poll on who won either of the debates.

    Can be gamed far too easily, and become the debate itself. Glad the worms etc are gone.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Sandpit said:

    Being shit at numbers is now racist, apparently.
    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870766960652558338

    *Not* being shit at numbers. Apparently.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925

    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'

    Sounds like she's lost her patience with Labour !
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/870767300881809408

    Paul Mason‏Verified account
    @paulmasonnews
    You know what. It's time somebody called out the dog whistle racism behind Tory insults to Diane Abbott and I just decided to do it

    The comments are even better. Yes pointing out her ineptitude is racist. No it isn't. Yes it is
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    That is gibberish. The fundamental rule is, if you contract with someone for personal services you pay them for those services; if you have to sell your house to raise the money, you have to sell your house. State intervention privileging n thousand pounds from being at risk is interference in your favour. It just looks like a tax to you because the caring business looks to you like the health business and you think it should work like the NHS. It doesn't. You are implicitly arguing for a huge extension of the welfare state but unless and until that happens, the dementia tax is no such thing.

    It is care and I don't see why it isn't funded in the same way as the NHS. It's not a huge extension of the welfare state since state provision already exists for social care, it is just chargeable until a person reaches "continuing care" and then it is paid for by the NHS.

    If we're going to have private provision then just go all in and have nothing available like it currently is, or if we're going to have a state healthcare service then do it that way. This halfway house is stupid and a completely stupid attack on property rights by a party which is supposed to be in favour of property rights.
    I don't understand why dead people should have property rights?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'

    This is the result of the left diluting the word "racist" and "Nazi".
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    How has Newsnight got the gall to have Mason back on as a pundit when he was their economics editor only a few years ago?

    He's not even a moderate pundit, he's an extremist. It should be quite embarrassing for them but apparently not.

    I don't think Newsnight does embarrassment, they keep putting cub reporter Maitlis on don't they.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    The Tories have been slamming Abbott as part of a 'terrible triumvirate', with Corbyn and McDonnell. Are the Tories being racist towards them as well?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
This discussion has been closed.