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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON majority still an 80% betting chance
So that was the big set-piece of the campaign and I thought it was good programme well put together with a really excellent audience. TMay found herself having to answer direct question for just about the first time and looked the better for it. Platitudes weren’t going to work in this context.
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150 maj may be on!!!!
He will be all over the media on this tomorrow and he does not take prisoners
The issue of Trident isn't simply just the mechanics of deterrent.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/870745616133103616
The step change fallacy, curiously beloved by PBers. There are not two sets of people, those who know what JC's stance on nukes is and those who do not: there is a continuum all the way from people who have written PhDs and presented documentaries on JC and nuclear disarmament, to people who have never heard of Jeremy Corbyn. Somewhere on that continuum it is highly probable that there are voters who will have been nudged just enough in the right direction for their vote to be affected. It doesn't even have to be a lot of people because - again - things tend to happen in tiny increments, not in macro changes.
Who do you trust your family's security with?
Corbyn Too Big A Risk.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
Election Result
Con maj 1.24 1.25
NOM 6 6.2
Lab maj 28 29.
Other maj back 1000
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
Time to pile in?
2) I'm fairly certain most of the polls released tomorrow will have fieldwork that ended before tonight's QT, so expect a lot more bed wetting
She said it should be set, after consultation etc etc, at a level that does not draw upon money from the general tax payer.
Somebody in government knows what that number is.
I'm guessing it is at least £200K.
Whisper it, but I think this is a turning point for the Tories. I think the Corbyn surge will begin to peter out and some of those Lab -> UKIP -> Con will come back after those comments on defence. More than anything else they are patriots and those Trident answers were very poor.
Sorry.. couldn't resist
The proposed £72k cap was costed at something like £10bn a year of public money, to facilitate inheritances of the rich.
I'd have alot more respect for Labour and Corbyn if they'd just scrapped trident as a manifesto commitment. Having a nuclear deterrent and publicly stating you won't use it is a complete waste of money and makes you more vulnerable than not having one.
But he can't do that because the majority of his MP's and the Unions back Trident.
https://electionsetc.com/2017/06/02/combined-forecast-for-ge2017-third-update/#more-2436
It's a question of
1) When she goes in the next Parliament
2) Is it at a time of her own choosing
When asked about shooting terrorists if we had a Paris like attack he was more concerned with establishing a principle rather than acting. When asked about a drone strike if we located the head of IS he ruled it out.
Back in 2011 the government got a lot of stick from the press and Labour about Brits stranded in Libya, but secretly a rescue mission was already underway to round up Brits and fly them out of Libya from the a commandeered airfield in the desert. That was a very high-risk mission, but was carried out perfectly. A lot of lives were at risk, and more risked in sending UK forces into Libya. I can not see Corbyn being up to such a challenge. He'd flunk it, and lives would potentially be lost.
Quite. And no sane moral person would actually press the button and kill millions of innocent people.
Nixon understood this and had Kissinger convince the leaders of hostile Communist Bloc nations that Nixon was irrational and volatile. It's the only way it works. The upside for the US is that Trump doesn't need to simulate this. The downside is he could actually press the button. May and Corbyn are both sane moral people and neither would press the button. I suspect Churchill, Thatcher or Blair would - but perhaps I malign them.
In 1517, Machiavelli had argued that sometimes it is "a very wise thing to simulate madness".
https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/870730149305733120
There is as much chance of Lab stopping an increased TM Maj as Corbyn nuking a dung beetle
Fookin Nil None Zero F Fookin All,
I am off for a lie down just cashed out on a £200 profit.
Lets move on from Corbyn now I cannot do any more canvassing as i cannot defend that stupid nuclear answer.
My Account has not been hacked BTW
everybody's favourite viral video (now over 5.5m views).
Repeat, repeat, repeat.
If you keep the system, you need to keep the bluff.
https://twitter.com/matthewdancona/status/870753908112621568
Under current rules if you're arrested for a trigger offence, your DNA is taken.
But if no charges are brought or the person is found not guilty, Abbott wanted that person's record wiping.
Reckon that's free money now. 10%+ tax free return in 6 days
Although whether he was a proper Tory PM is more debatable.
He doesn't want to give anything that endorses that manifesto or makes Nick Timothy look like a master strategist.
The police should not have the power to build a covert database of innocent citizens.
I'm the age of suicide bombers, that logic no longer applies
Food for thought.
A 40 seat majority against Corbyn is a bit shite.
The Cabinet to ensure it is learnt.
"Red has its Merits but so does Green its an important question and we should consider each option on its merits"
Mrs Balls is dire thats why we ended up with this stupid pacifist
One of them has even bluffed his way into being interviewed on air, it seems.