Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON majority still an 80% betting chance

124

Comments

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    Ave_it said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    So who's paying for the social care?
    Tax pensions at 100%!
    Tax the contributions or the payments? Or do you mean eliminate the tax relief on contributions so that most people don't bother?
    There should be no tax on pension contributions or pensions cos that is what hard working people have paid for

    Thanks for capping my pension Osborne - I can't rely on share income from expensive wallpaper like some can!
    Yes, tax relief at 40% on the payments and tax paid at 20% (less a large personal allowance) on the pension itself when paid out. If they screw up the inputs with caps then most middle class people just won't bother with the pension at all - and guess what that costs the state 30 or 40 years down the line.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    I put a small bet on the SpreadEx seats market, and it gets suspended.

    Sheesh.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    MaxPB said:

    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'

    This is the result of the left diluting the word "racist" and "Nazi".
    They love labelling people, don't they.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Pong said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    That is gibberish. The fundamental rule is, if you contract with someone for personal services you pay them for those services; if you have to sell your house to raise the money, you have to sell your house. State intervention privileging n thousand pounds from being at risk is interference in your favour. It just looks like a tax to you because the caring business looks to you like the health business and you think it should work like the NHS. It doesn't. You are implicitly arguing for a huge extension of the welfare state but unless and until that happens, the dementia tax is no such thing.

    It is care and I don't see why it isn't funded in the same way as the NHS. It's not a huge extension of the welfare state since state provision already exists for social care, it is just chargeable until a person reaches "continuing care" and then it is paid for by the NHS.

    If we're going to have private provision then just go all in and have nothing available like it currently is, or if we're going to have a state healthcare service then do it that way. This halfway house is stupid and a completely stupid attack on property rights by a party which is supposed to be in favour of property rights.
    Dead people should have property rights?
    Their children should have inheritance rights, not have it stolen by some insurance parasite.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    “Bourbon. The kind that nobody really wants but it’s often the only one left.”

    Maddest thing anyone's send this election?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
    Sorry, I was using WTI. Still, Brent was below $50 at the start of May.
  • Options
    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    That is gibberish. The fundamental rule is, if you contract with someone for personal services you pay them for those services; if you have to sell your house to raise the money, you have to sell your house. State intervention privileging n thousand pounds from being at risk is interference in your favour. It just looks like a tax to you because the caring business looks to you like the health business and you think it should work like the NHS. It doesn't. You are implicitly arguing for a huge extension of the welfare state but unless and until that happens, the dementia tax is no such thing.

    It is care and I don't see why it isn't funded in the same way as the NHS. It's not a huge extension of the welfare state since state provision already exists for social care, it is just chargeable until a person reaches "continuing care" and then it is paid for by the NHS.

    If we're going to have private provision then just go all in and have nothing available like it currently is, or if we're going to have a state healthcare service then do it that way. This halfway house is stupid and a completely stupid attack on property rights by a party which is supposed to be in favour of property rights.
    You need to devote some time to researching this issue. What you say is trite nonsense.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
    Good. Screw fracking.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    What we need to do to close this out and win the GE is for one big worker friendly policy to come out!

    A 2% cut in NI for all workers ie reduce the rate from 12% to 10% for the general NI band (up to £45k pa?) and eliminate the higher 2% band to be paid for by cuts to sponger benefits!!

    CON supporting hard working families!!!

    I'd be up for that. Abolish NI entirely!
    So who's paying for the social care?
    Tax pensions at 100%!
    Tax the contributions or the payments? Or do you mean eliminate the tax relief on contributions so that most people don't bother?
    Payments!
    Payments from a pension already count as income, for income tax purposes.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'

    Sounds like she's lost her patience with Labour !
    She's never been party political. She's voted for all the three main parties. She, like me voted for Ed M in 2015. But she has also never been very keen on Corbyn (although she did like him during the leadership contest in 2015). I thought she'd vote LD, but she really doesn't like Farron.

    She's never liked Diane Abbott either.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Sandpit said:

    Being shit at numbers is now racist, apparently.
    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870766960652558338

    Isn't it about just being shit?
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    LOL yes of course

    CON gain Wrexham
    CON gain Delyn
    CON gain Carshalton
    CON hold Surbiton

    That's not a loss :lol:

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    How has Newsnight got the gall to have Mason back on as a pundit when he was their economics editor only a few years ago?

    He's not even a moderate pundit, he's an extremist. It should be quite embarrassing for them but apparently not.

    I don't think Newsnight does embarrassment, they keep putting cub reporter Maitlis on don't they.
    Considering BBC News has a flaming Tory as their News Editor.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
    Good. Screw fracking.
    Other way round I'm afraid. The fracking companies can survive now with the price down at around $25 a barrel or less. It is the conventional oil companies that are suffering.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,277
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    That is gibberish. The fundamental rule is, if you contract with someone for personal services you pay them for those services; if you have to sell your house to raise the money, you have to sell your house. State intervention privileging n thousand pounds from being at risk is interference in your favour. It just looks like a tax to you because the caring business looks to you like the health business and you think it should work like the NHS. It doesn't. You are implicitly arguing for a huge extension of the welfare state but unless and until that happens, the dementia tax is no such thing.

    It is care and I don't see why it isn't funded in the same way as the NHS. It's not a huge extension of the welfare state since state provision already exists for social care, it is just chargeable until a person reaches "continuing care" and then it is paid for by the NHS.

    If we're going to have private provision then just go all in and have nothing available like it currently is, or if we're going to have a state healthcare service then do it that way. This halfway house is stupid and a completely stupid attack on property rights by a party which is supposed to be in favour of property rights.
    To be honest Max social care amounts to billions to the point some have estimated it would need a 5% increase in basic tax and that is why Theresa May says it needs consultation otherwise the young are paying for the social care of the wealthy elderly. Before the manifesto it seems few if any knew that their home and savings were all at risk if they needed long term care (apart from £23,250 allowance)

    As I have said I have many years experience in this field and have seen home owners with £250,000 + homes lose the lot and have the home sold while they are alive.

    No one has an answer, not even the insurance companies, and at least Theresa May has identified and is addressing one of the biggest social problems of our time
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
    Good. Screw fracking.
    Spot LNG cargoes can be had for about $5 in Europe right now. They need to be around $12 to make fraccing in the UK economic.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    This is the Mason diane abbott racist comment here.

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/870770726516674561
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
    Good. Screw fracking.
    Other way round I'm afraid. The fracking companies can survive now with the price down at around $25 a barrel or less. It is the conventional oil companies that are suffering.
    In the US and Canada, sure. But in the UK (where there isn't much infrastructure and there are lots of people), I don't think there will be any significant investment while LNG prices are sub $12.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    This is the Mason diane abbott racist comment here.

    twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/870770726516674561

    He really has gone quite mad, hasn't he?
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    surbiton said:

    How has Newsnight got the gall to have Mason back on as a pundit when he was their economics editor only a few years ago?

    He's not even a moderate pundit, he's an extremist. It should be quite embarrassing for them but apparently not.

    I don't think Newsnight does embarrassment, they keep putting cub reporter Maitlis on don't they.
    Considering BBC News has a flaming Tory as their News Editor.
    Surbiton = :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'

    He is right, I would never deride a white Cambridge history graduate who thought there were Roman centurions in England hundreds of years before Christmas.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'

    He is right, I would never deride a white Cambridge history graduate who thought there were Roman centurions in England hundreds of years before Christmas.
    Which Christmas?

    So long as we're talking Christmas 500AD (for example), it doesn't sound unreasonable at all.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    RobD said:

    This is the Mason diane abbott racist comment here.

    twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/870770726516674561

    He really has gone quite mad, hasn't he?
    Yep.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    On Emily Maitlis, she's actually one of Newsnight's bettter presenters, along with Kirsty Wark. Evan Davis is awful. James O'Brien is much more suited to LBC, he's not very good on Newsnight either, although I don't know whether he's still a presenter there as I watch Newsnight infrequently these days.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    I put a small bet on the SpreadEx seats market, and it gets suspended.

    Sheesh.

    One of your small £100 a seat bets?

    I was about to drop £2 a seat on the Tories at 369 when they suspended.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936
    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
    Good. Screw fracking.
    Other way round I'm afraid. The fracking companies can survive now with the price down at around $25 a barrel or less. It is the conventional oil companies that are suffering.
    In the US and Canada, sure. But in the UK (where there isn't much infrastructure and there are lots of people), I don't think there will be any significant investment while LNG prices are sub $12.
    The main impediment to fracking in the UK is public and local authority opposition. There are plenty of companies already drilling conventionally onshore and the fracking infrastructure is no different to conventional oil or gas. Indeed because they have unfortunately waived many of the rules that apply to conventional drilling, it is cheaper to go fracking than to drill conventional wells.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    RobD said:

    This is the Mason diane abbott racist comment here.

    twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/870770726516674561

    He really has gone quite mad, hasn't he?
    Not recently.

    Also not the sort of rant a person who thinks their team is winning would utter either.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    surbiton said:

    How has Newsnight got the gall to have Mason back on as a pundit when he was their economics editor only a few years ago?

    He's not even a moderate pundit, he's an extremist. It should be quite embarrassing for them but apparently not.

    I don't think Newsnight does embarrassment, they keep putting cub reporter Maitlis on don't they.
    Considering BBC News has a flaming Tory as their News Editor.
    My observation was personal not party political, unlike yours
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    I watch Newsnight infrequently these days.

    You're not alone, judging by the viewing figures.
  • Options
    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    RobD said:

    This is the Mason diane abbott racist comment here.

    twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/870770726516674561

    He really has gone quite mad, hasn't he?
    He really is not an asset to Labour. Someone should lock him in a sound-proofed cupboard.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Fairly important news: the oil price has dipped below $50 for the first time in months.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Errr... it spent much of May below $50.
    See: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
    I thought Brent Crude had been above $50 until today but maybe I was wrong.
    Good. Screw fracking.
    Other way round I'm afraid. The fracking companies can survive now with the price down at around $25 a barrel or less. It is the conventional oil companies that are suffering.
    In the US and Canada, sure. But in the UK (where there isn't much infrastructure and there are lots of people), I don't think there will be any significant investment while LNG prices are sub $12.
    The main impediment to fracking in the UK is public and local authority opposition. There are plenty of companies already drilling conventionally onshore and the fracking infrastructure is no different to conventional oil or gas. Indeed because they have unfortunately waived many of the rules that apply to conventional drilling, it is cheaper to go fracking than to drill conventional wells.
    That would change overnight if the areas where the fracking happens got a cheque instead of a council tax bill.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    LOL yes of course

    CON gain Wrexham
    CON gain Delyn
    CON gain Carshalton
    CON hold Surbiton

    That's not a loss :lol:

    CON lose Gower and Vale of Clwyd. And Surbiton and Twickenham. LD keeps Carshalton.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    nunu said:
    That's my favourite statistic of the day.

    Spreadex still suspended so have just thrown a bag of sand at the 1.25 Tory majority on Betfair.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nunu said:
    All 65+ do not vote Tory an dmuch less so than 5 weeks back. Also, 18-24 olds turnout will be higher than 2010, let alone 2015.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2017

    RobD said:

    This is the Mason diane abbott racist comment here.

    twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/870770726516674561

    He really has gone quite mad, hasn't he?
    He really is not an asset to Labour. Someone should lock him in a sound-proofed cupboard.
    Makes you wonder how the hell was this guy with his thoughts/views today impartial when he worked for the bbc ;-)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Sandpit said:

    nunu said:
    That's my favourite statistic of the day.

    Spreadex still suspended so have just thrown a bag of sand at the 1.25 Tory majority on Betfair.
    Looks like there are 60 of them (Lab seats with majority < 5000)
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MikeL said:

    There is a risk that people on here overestimate the importance of that QT.

    Betfair is unmoved and history shows programmes like that don't make much difference.

    The electorate data out tonight is more important in my view.

    We can't really judge the importance of it - certainly not by movements in the polls, as they aren't reliable in judging any other aspect of the election. It is clear from comments here that it felt game changing, just as Ed's QT in 2015 did. That raises the question whether things were changed directly by Ed's QT or by his forced errors resulting from it - no QT, no edstone.

    One thing, just as all good rules of generalship say Never march on Moscow, future Labour party playbooks will say Never agree to a Yorkshire QT the weekend before polling day.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    nunu said:
    That's my favourite statistic of the day.

    Spreadex still suspended so have just thrown a bag of sand at the 1.25 Tory majority on Betfair.
    Looks like there are 60 of them (Lab seats with majority < 5000)
    Yep, and lots of them in the Midlands with large UKIP votes to squeeze. 30-40 gains should be easy now, judging by the coverage tonight.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    surbiton said:

    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    LOL yes of course

    CON gain Wrexham
    CON gain Delyn
    CON gain Carshalton
    CON hold Surbiton

    That's not a loss :lol:

    CON lose Gower and Vale of Clwyd. And Surbiton and Twickenham. LD keeps Carshalton.

    HAHAHAHAHA!

    I was off to bed in my £1m 3 bedroom detached house (all figures approximate :lol: ) paid for by myself

    But had to come back on this

    CON will win Surbiton by 20,000

    Enjoy your dreams of Diane Abbott


    :lol::lol::lol: etc
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Just told my mother (who is Black, and like Diane is the daughter of Jamacian immigrants) about Paul Mason claiming that the Tory attacks towards Diane Abbott are 'dog whistle' racism and she said 'BS.'

    He is right, I would never deride a white Cambridge history graduate who thought there were Roman centurions in England hundreds of years before Christmas.
    Which Christmas?

    So long as we're talking Christmas 500AD (for example), it doesn't sound unreasonable at all.
    Sodding autocorrect (genuinely, for once)!
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    surbiton said:

    nunu said:
    All 65+ do not vote Tory an dmuch less so than 5 weeks back. Also, 18-24 olds turnout will be higher than 2010, let alone 2015.
    There are only 6 million 18-24 year olds but 12 million 65+ year olds. The tories still have a 40% LEAD with them, turnout of 18-24 year old was only 50% in 2010 but turnout of 65+ was 74% in 2015 and the young live in safe labour seats but oldies are more evenly spread out.

    Sorry oldies votes matter much much much more then the yoof vote.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Floater said:

    Yorkcity said:

    chrisb said:

    The issue of Trident isn't simply just the mechanics of deterrent.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/870745616133103616

    The same could be said of foreign aid. I was hoping May might have made that point when questioned on it tonight.
    Yep and it was an open goal given that she has already committed to maintaining the 0.7% of GDP. These sorts of things should be trumpeted far and wide as they are positives which will cut through in what has been a thoroughly negative campaign so far from all sides.
    Is it true the government gives North Korea aid money as suggested by a member of the audience tonight ?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/uk-gave-4-million-foreign-aid-north-korea-past-six-years/
    For intelligence gathering.
  • Options
    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169

    I watch Newsnight infrequently these days.

    You're not alone, judging by the viewing figures.
    On the rare occasions I do a YouGov survey I always get asked how often I watch Newsnight. Perhaps that is part of their demographic screening for deciding whether you should be part of their political opinion poll group.

    I hardly ever watch it anymore.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    edited June 2017
    Have caught up on QT.

    Theresa gave her best performance of the campaign.

    Jezza was OK until the nuclear question and then stumbled very badly (and never really recovered)

    Scores on the doors:

    Tezza - 7

    Jezza - 5
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Michael Fallon in addition to attacking Corbyn on defence has announced that no higher rate taxpayers will pay anymore in raised tax under the conservatives

    Only basic rate taxpayers will get right royally screwed. As your PM categorically withdrew the 2015 manifesto pledge on Income Tax and NIC from the 2017 manifesto.

    I suppose it is good for me. I will save several thousand pounds compared to McDonnell's budget.

    Do I want the Tories to win ? Hell no !
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    LOL yes of course

    CON gain Wrexham
    CON gain Delyn
    CON gain Carshalton
    CON hold Surbiton

    That's not a loss :lol:

    CON lose Gower and Vale of Clwyd. And Surbiton and Twickenham. LD keeps Carshalton.

    HAHAHAHAHA!

    I was off to bed in my £1m 3 bedroom detached house (all figures approximate :lol: ) paid for by myself

    But had to come back on this

    CON will win Surbiton by 20,000

    Enjoy your dreams of Diane Abbott


    :lol::lol::lol: etc
    Isn't the great johnO on the vote trail in kingston and surbition,we could get a advanced view of how the ground games going ;-)
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    nunu said:

    surbiton said:

    nunu said:
    All 65+ do not vote Tory an dmuch less so than 5 weeks back. Also, 18-24 olds turnout will be higher than 2010, let alone 2015.
    There are only 6 million 18-24 year olds but 12 million 65+ year olds. The tories still have a 40% LEAD with them, turnout of 18-24 year old was only 50% in 2010 but turnout of 65+ was 74% in 2015 and the young live in safe labour seats but oldies are more evenly spread out.

    Sorry oldies votes matter much much much more then the yoof vote.
    Plus even now May is doing even better with over 65s than Cameron, even if Corbyn is doing even better with young voters than Miliband
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    Isnt the basic rate protected in the manifesto? I thought it was NICs that was dropped?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I put a small bet on the SpreadEx seats market, and it gets suspended.

    Sheesh.

    One of your small £100 a seat bets?

    I was about to drop £2 a seat on the Tories at 369 when they suspended.
    They let me put £2 on at £368, and then suspended!
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    LOL yes of course

    CON gain Wrexham
    CON gain Delyn
    CON gain Carshalton
    CON hold Surbiton

    That's not a loss :lol:

    CON lose Gower and Vale of Clwyd. And Surbiton and Twickenham. LD keeps Carshalton.

    HAHAHAHAHA!

    I was off to bed in my £1m 3 bedroom detached house (all figures approximate :lol: ) paid for by myself

    But had to come back on this

    CON will win Surbiton by 20,000

    Enjoy your dreams of Diane Abbott


    :lol::lol::lol: etc
    Isn't the great johnO on the vote trail in kingston and surbition,we could get a advanced view of how the ground games going ;-)
    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Ave_it said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    LOL yes of course

    CON gain Wrexham
    CON gain Delyn
    CON gain Carshalton
    CON hold Surbiton

    That's not a loss :lol:

    CON lose Gower and Vale of Clwyd. And Surbiton and Twickenham. LD keeps Carshalton.

    HAHAHAHAHA!

    I was off to bed in my £1m 3 bedroom detached house (all figures approximate :lol: ) paid for by myself

    But had to come back on this

    CON will win Surbiton by 20,000

    Enjoy your dreams of Diane Abbott


    :lol::lol::lol: etc
    3 bedroom house ? Looks like you are on tax credits. I wouldn't know how I will survive in less than 5 bedrooms. I am only talking about the house, I actually live in.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    Isnt the basic rate protected in the manifesto? I thought it was NICs that was dropped?
    No. It is NOT !!!!!
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
    Why national polling when we have specific London polling.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-jeremy-corbyn-in-shock-surge-in-london-as-labour-leader-now-more-popular-a3554371.html
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    lol
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I put a small bet on the SpreadEx seats market, and it gets suspended.

    Sheesh.

    One of your small £100 a seat bets?

    I was about to drop £2 a seat on the Tories at 369 when they suspended.
    They let me put £2 on at £368, and then suspended!
    Boring, don't they want to take bets? Still bloody suspended. SpIn are suspended too, don't either of them have traders working nights?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    surbiton said:

    nunu said:
    All 65+ do not vote Tory an dmuch less so than 5 weeks back. Also, 18-24 olds turnout will be higher than 2010, let alone 2015.
    Do you really think an asset rich pensioner will think: "yes I'll be much better off under Labour."?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    Excluding the basic rate taxpayers the Tories took out of tax altogether of course and which the Tories are likely to raise again
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    I'm obviously getting too tired and emotional, was thinking of LD Farron rather than Tory Fallon.

    I think the Tories will leave 40% rate well alone, but will try and reform NI rates and thresholds to align them with the income tax rates and thresholds. Self-employed NI will rise as was proposed in the budget, there's now too many self-employed not paying employer NI.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Fallon's quote on tax:

    But in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Sir Michael made it clear that income tax “absolutely” will not rise under a new Conservative government.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited June 2017
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
    Why national polling when we have specific London polling.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-jeremy-corbyn-in-shock-surge-in-london-as-labour-leader-now-more-popular-a3554371.html
    That is the poll I was originally talking about, Labour are on a huge 60% in inner London and the Tories just 25% but Labour are only on 44% in suburban London with the Tories on 37%. Inner London prefers Corbyn to May by 41% to 27% but suburban London May to Corbyn by 39% to 34%. So Labour may hold Hampstead and Kilburn and Westminster North and Southwark and Bermondsey but still lose Ilford North, Brentford and Isleworth and Enfield North to the Tories in the suburbs

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6zez44zpnt/QueenMaryResults_London_May31st2017_W.pdf
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    You are despreate.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    Labour are the party that will desperately trying to raise revenue to pay for their "plans"
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,277
    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
    But he DID NOT say that.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
    But he DID NOT say that.
    Read the article.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
    Why national polling when we have specific London polling.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-jeremy-corbyn-in-shock-surge-in-london-as-labour-leader-now-more-popular-a3554371.html
    That is the poll I was originally talking about, Labour are on a huge 60% in inner London and the Tories just 25% but Labour are only on 44% in suburban London with the Tories on 37%. Inner London prefers Corbyn to May by 41% to 27% but suburban London May to Corbyn by 39% to 34%. So Labour may hold Hampstead and Kilburn and Westminster North and Southwark and Bermondsey but still lose Ilford North, Brentford and Isleworth and Enfield North to the Tories in the suburbs

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6zez44zpnt/QueenMaryResults_London_May31st2017_W.pdf
    But 39-34 is better than 2015. In fact, this poll is the same as 1997 !!!!
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    Labour pledge to scrap the married couples allowance meaning I would pay more income tax at the basic rate.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
    Why national polling when we have specific London polling.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-jeremy-corbyn-in-shock-surge-in-london-as-labour-leader-now-more-popular-a3554371.html
    That is the poll I was originally talking about, Labour are on a huge 60% in inner London and the Tories just 25% but Labour are only on 44% in suburban London with the Tories on 37%. Inner London prefers Corbyn to May by 41% to 27% but suburban London May to Corbyn by 39% to 34%. So Labour may hold Hampstead and Kilburn and Westminster North and Southwark and Bermondsey but still lose Ilford North, Brentford and Isleworth and Enfield North to the Tories in the suburbs

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6zez44zpnt/QueenMaryResults_London_May31st2017_W.pdf
    I think they will lose Dagenham & Rainham as well to the tories, even though tories start in third place.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    edited June 2017
    Good to see some love in the world. :)

    Singer Ariana Grande, who was headlining the bombed Manchester concert, turns up unannounced at hospital where the injured are being treated.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/ariana-grande-surprises-injured-fans-hospital-following-manchester/

    Good night.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    Labour pledge to scrap the married couples allowance meaning I would pay more income tax at the basic rate.
    Desperate rearguard action like Sunderland, Middlesborough and Hull.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,277
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
    But he DID NOT say that.
    He did not need to - he was cancelling all Corbyn's attack on the £80,000 plus aspirational earners There will be no increase in basic by the conservatives
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Despite all the froth about the nuclear question, I'm not convinced it will shift any votes, though it seems to have motivated a degree of betting activity. I doubt there are too many voters who genuinely fear we are in danger of imminent attack.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
    Why national polling when we have specific London polling.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-jeremy-corbyn-in-shock-surge-in-london-as-labour-leader-now-more-popular-a3554371.html
    That is the poll I was originally talking about, Labour are on a huge 60% in inner London and the Tories just 25% but Labour are only on 44% in suburban London with the Tories on 37%. Inner London prefers Corbyn to May by 41% to 27% but suburban London May to Corbyn by 39% to 34%. So Labour may hold Hampstead and Kilburn and Westminster North and Southwark and Bermondsey but still lose Ilford North, Brentford and Isleworth and Enfield North to the Tories in the suburbs

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6zez44zpnt/QueenMaryResults_London_May31st2017_W.pdf
    I think they will lose Dagenham & Rainham as well to the tories, even though tories start in third place.
    Harrow west could also be a tory GAIN, more likely imo then Ealing Central and acton,
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    Fallon's quote on tax:

    But in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Sir Michael made it clear that income tax “absolutely” will not rise under a new Conservative government.

    So why didn't May said that earlier ? Why did she keep schtum when she was in the press conference with Hammond ?

    Another U-turn ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Fallon's quote on tax:

    But in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Sir Michael made it clear that income tax “absolutely” will not rise under a new Conservative government.

    So why didn't May said that earlier ? Why did she keep schtum when she was in the press conference with Hammond ?

    Another U-turn ?
    Nope, unless I missed where it was announced that the basic rate would go up.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
    Why national polling when we have specific London polling.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-jeremy-corbyn-in-shock-surge-in-london-as-labour-leader-now-more-popular-a3554371.html
    That is the poll I was originally talking about, Labour are on a huge 60% in inner London and the Tories just 25% but Labour are only on 44% in suburban London with the Tories on 37%. Inner London prefers Corbyn to May by 41% to 27% but suburban London May to Corbyn by 39% to 34%. So Labour may hold Hampstead and Kilburn and Westminster North and Southwark and Bermondsey but still lose Ilford North, Brentford and Isleworth and Enfield North to the Tories in the suburbs

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6zez44zpnt/QueenMaryResults_London_May31st2017_W.pdf
    I think they will lose Dagenham & Rainham as well to the tories, even though tories start in third place.
    Harrow west could also be a tory GAIN, more likely imo then Ealing Central and acton,
    I think Labour will hold Harrow West and Dagenham and Rainham is a more likely Tory gain than Ealing Central and Acton though Labour should hold both
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    Do you mean the peoples militia?

    http://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/1044/a-well-ordered-militia/

    Bonus question which Labour shadow cabinet minister was caught in a picture smiling and holding holding a pamphlet calling for a peoples militia ?

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,277

    Despite all the froth about the nuclear question, I'm not convinced it will shift any votes, though it seems to have motivated a degree of betting activity. I doubt there are too many voters who genuinely fear we are in danger of imminent attack.

    Wishful thinking. This is the big story and is going to be played over and over again with his car crash reply.

    Canvassers will be on the doorsteps from tomorrow on with attack ads and I have just received the attack e mail from CCHQ
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
    But he DID NOT say that.
    He did not need to - he was cancelling all Corbyn's attack on the £80,000 plus aspirational earners There will be no increase in basic by the conservatives
    So, let's get this right.

    The 2015 manifesto explicitly ruled out any increase in Income Tax and basic rate NIC.

    The 2017 manifesto omitted that.

    Now you are saying that they will not increase any taxes. So why not keep the pledge ?

    Wobble ? U-turn ? What next ?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nunu said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    You are despreate.
    Surbiton always makes me laugh.

    Sheer desperation shines through
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited June 2017
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Meanwhile from real regional polls: In Wales and in London, the Tories are set to lose 2 seats in each region.

    If you look at the subsamples of the London poll for example the big swing to Labour is inner London, in suburban London they still prefer May to Corbyn
    Like Surbiton and Twickenham, you mean. We have other means to get rid of Tories.
    On national polling the Tories will see a swing to them there so there needs to be heavy anti Tory tactical voting there
    Why national polling when we have specific London polling.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-jeremy-corbyn-in-shock-surge-in-london-as-labour-leader-now-more-popular-a3554371.html
    That is the poll I was originally talking about, Labour are on a huge 60% in inner London and the Tories just 25% but Labour are only on 44% in suburban London with the Tories on 37%. Inner London prefers Corbyn to May by 41% to 27% but suburban London May to Corbyn by 39% to 34%. So Labour may hold Hampstead and Kilburn and Westminster North and Southwark and Bermondsey but still lose Ilford North, Brentford and Isleworth and Enfield North to the Tories in the suburbs

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6zez44zpnt/QueenMaryResults_London_May31st2017_W.pdf
    But 39-34 is better than 2015. In fact, this poll is the same as 1997 !!!!
    Not in suburban London, it is closer to 2010/15 there, in inner London it is 1997. Even though suburban London will see a smaller pro Tory swing than the national average I think it will see a Tory swing and the Tories can pick up a few seats they won in 2010 but lost in 2015 in north London but maybe lose a few to the LDs in the SouthWest, inner London though will see a clear swing to Labour
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Despite all the froth about the nuclear question, I'm not convinced it will shift any votes, though it seems to have motivated a degree of betting activity. I doubt there are too many voters who genuinely fear we are in danger of imminent attack.

    Wishful thinking. This is the big story and is going to be played over and over again with his car crash reply.

    Canvassers will be on the doorsteps from tomorrow on with attack ads and I have just received the attack e mail from CCHQ
    49% of the population does not want trident. Labour is not going to get 49%.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,277
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
    But he DID NOT say that.
    He did not need to - he was cancelling all Corbyn's attack on the £80,000 plus aspirational earners There will be no increase in basic by the conservatives
    So, let's get this right.

    The 2015 manifesto explicitly ruled out any increase in Income Tax and basic rate NIC.

    The 2017 manifesto omitted that.

    Now you are saying that they will not increase any taxes. So why not keep the pledge ?

    Wobble ? U-turn ? What next ?
    You do talk rubbish - the basic rates of tax remain but that does not include NI which is avaiable if needed, possibly only on the employer.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Fallon's quote on tax:

    But in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Sir Michael made it clear that income tax “absolutely” will not rise under a new Conservative government.

    So why didn't May said that earlier ? Why did she keep schtum when she was in the press conference with Hammond ?

    Another U-turn ?
    Nope, unless I missed where it was announced that the basic rate would go up.
    The manifesto did not specifically rule it out like it did in 2015.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
    But he DID NOT say that.
    He did not need to - he was cancelling all Corbyn's attack on the £80,000 plus aspirational earners There will be no increase in basic by the conservatives
    So, let's get this right.

    The 2015 manifesto explicitly ruled out any increase in Income Tax and basic rate NIC.

    The 2017 manifesto omitted that.

    Now you are saying that they will not increase any taxes. So why not keep the pledge ?

    Wobble ? U-turn ? What next ?
    LOL. Changing policies between manifestos is a U-turn now? Desperate indeed.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    No rise in basic either
    But he DID NOT say that.
    He did not need to - he was cancelling all Corbyn's attack on the £80,000 plus aspirational earners There will be no increase in basic by the conservatives
    So, let's get this right.

    The 2015 manifesto explicitly ruled out any increase in Income Tax and basic rate NIC.

    The 2017 manifesto omitted that.

    Now you are saying that they will not increase any taxes. So why not keep the pledge ?

    Wobble ? U-turn ? What next ?
    You do talk rubbish - the basic rates of tax remain but that does not include NI which is avaiable if needed, possibly only on the employer.
    Does the 2017 manifesto specifically rule out increase in basic rate of income tax ? As it did in 2015. Show us.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    Labour pledge to scrap the married couples allowance meaning I would pay more income tax at the basic rate.
    Fake news? I can see no mention of the married couples allowance in Labour's manifesto, though page 9 does say: A Labour government will guarantee no rises in income tax for those earning below £80,000 a year, and no increases in personal National Insurance Contributions or the rate of VAT.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.

    So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.

    I assumed that the ADDITIONAL RATE taxpayers are who he'll hit, upping 45% to 50%.
    Don't try to wobble now. Tories will never increase the HR. The cat is out of the bag.

    TORIES WILL INCREASE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX.
    Labour pledge to scrap the married couples allowance meaning I would pay more income tax at the basic rate.
    Fake news? I can see no mention of the married couples allowance in Labour's manifesto, though page 9 does say: A Labour government will guarantee no rises in income tax for those earning below £80,000 a year, and no increases in personal National Insurance Contributions or the rate of VAT.
    Typical Tories, always lying.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    Catching up on Tim Farron's interview with Andrew Neil.

    Brutal, brutal stuff...
This discussion has been closed.