politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both ICM and YouGov find CON dominance amongst the oldies is n

Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?

I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.

ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.

Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...

No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.

It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first

There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."

Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.

I pointed this out too.

If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.

I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.

The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.

It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.

Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.

Utter nonsense. What you mean is "you" want a socialist brexit, "the people" simply want to leave.

You really need to widen the circle of people you engage with, you appear to live in an echo chamber.

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nick Timothy is more a dick than a Willie.

But I've written a thread for Sunday on who should be Mrs May's Willie.

Willie Thorne .. Willie Rennie .. Willie Walsh .. Willie Nelson .. Wee Willie Winkie

What a choice - More willies available than on a Friday night in Brighton .... apparently ....

We've heard stories about the ARSE roadshow to Brighton....

Indeed .... Torbay was illuminating too. So many admirers, especially Tory canvassers ....

TheScreamingEagles said:

New BMG polling for Electoral Reform Soc finds 20% saying they'll be voting tactically. This compares with 9% at GE2015

And how many 'said' they would be voting tactically at this point at the last election.
I'd have thought the true figure would be less than 20%, and probably nearer to 9% again.

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?

I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.

ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.

Media ramping a close Race? Never!

Theuniondivvie said:

ThreeQuidder said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Pagan said:

leslie48 said:

Absolutely the reality of 'Can't pay ( dad's care bills) we'll take the property away' is frightening especially for those who had their children later in life or for those needing care earlier in their 70s. This potentially affects all house owners and affects many families full on.

Its also a lottery based on whether we ( baby boomers) or for younger readers parents get dementia compared to cancer, strokes, heart disease, disabilities which currently may demand no house sale. It goes to the heart of what type of society we are- most UK voters would prefer the Lib Dem approach pay a few more pennies on income tax for European style health and social care - pool the risk or at least get a balance - not indifferent right wing American public policy misery.

There are a huge amount of people in the country who struggle to make their pay last to the end of the month. People with no prospect of owning a house or inheriting a house, people for whom a few more pence on income tax would make their lives even harder. Sure they would happily spend 40 years of working life struggling harder so the haves could pass on the house to Tristan and Jemima

Quite. The dementia tax threatens to be the most effective wealth tax we have ever had. So, of course, Labour is against it. Inherited wealth must be protected apparently.

I still think Labour running to the defence of millionaires keeping their WFA is the most bizarre thing that has happened in this election. How the hell do they defend that on the doorsteps of council estates/social housing?

They don't have to because the Tories bungled it by saying it would stay in Scotland.

This is Hillary 16 levels of shit. Worst campaign I've ever seen by the Tory party.

It's been devolved...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

So that's at least 1.5-2 years of a special arrangement for Scotland. Thanks English voters!

Price I'm willing to pay.

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.

Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...

No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.

It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first

There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."

Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.

I pointed this out too.

If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.

I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.

The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.

It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.

Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.

Not if she does end up getting a landslide or comfortable majority she won't, as it will be proven to be mere fluff.

Patrick said:

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.

They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.

I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?

I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.

ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.

The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.

Kezia on board the Jezza bandwagon (apart from his inconvenient statements on another indy ref of course).

kle4 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.

Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...

No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.

It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first

There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."

Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.

I pointed this out too.

If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.

I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.

The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.

It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.

Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.

Not if she does end up getting a landslide or comfortable majority she won't, as it will be proven to be mere fluff.

That's what the Tories thought in 92.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.

Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...

deleted space issues


##that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.

It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first

There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."

Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.

I pointed this out too.

If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.

I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.

The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.

It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.

Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.

They want a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit on economics but a Le Pen/Farage Brexit on immigration and sovereignty

I have been saying for months that Corbyn should be flogging the peoples Brexit vs the Bosses Brexit, but I think that message has got through unspoken.

I am expecting a Tory majority, but it is going to be a pyrric victory. They are settingthemselves up for a 97 style Labour landslide in 22.

you are just parroting SO

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn?

Ignorance, but I do have a pet theory to explain it.

Although young people are theoretically better educated and qualified than ever before, they have a less broad and deep cultural and general knowledge.

This is driven by the rise of the internet, and to a lesser extent multi-channel television and the decline of newspapers. In the old days due to the lack of choice you would either entertain yourself or end up watching, reading, and listening to a broad range of programming and opinions, in many cases about subjects that you might previously never have shown any interest in.

In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.

I wonder how many young people today watch the equivalents of Horizon, Arena, Everyman, Heart of the Matter, Q.E.D., Equinox, Panorama, World in Action and the like? I used to watch those programmes regularly when I was a kid, because THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE ON, and there was no internet. So I was exposed to all sorts of subjects and opinions that I would never come across in day-to-day life or in school.

A perfect example of this I read recently was a university lecturer teaching history, they had a student who was certainly bright but had never heard of the term "the Cold War". It had never come up in her education nor had she picked it up from the wider media.

Incidentally I'm not saying that older people are not getting sucked down the same rabbit hole, but they did at least get exposed to a wider culture when they were growing up.

MarqueeMark said:

marke09 said:

Simon Hughes on SKY News saying hes out on the doorstep every day and the Lib Dems will win seats from Labour and the Conservatives BUT says Conservatives will win

SNP yes. Tories, hmmmm. But Labour???

Well there's Cambridge, which I think is safe but is a tiny majority and some think still in play. Other than that?

FF43 said:

The Conservatives have issued a Clear Plan for Brexit it's actually a wishlist, not a plan. 9 of the wishes are served by being a member of the EU; 2 by leaving. That implies a negotiation that aims to retain as many as possible of the 9 existing benefits while not compromising the two new benefits, which in principle have nothing to do with the EU. (That's why we are leaving the EU).

Your implication that the Conservative party has an EU exit "wishlist" is outrageous. Grossly defamatory.

Presently the Tory government has a slogan. "BREXIT Means BREXIT"

That's it .... Ooppps sorry .... they also have Liam Fox too.

What could possibly go wrong?

Mr. glw, that's astonishing, and deeply alarming.

Quite glad I'm old enough to remember the world before mobile telephones and the internet being widespread.

DavidL said:

alex. said:

FF43 said:

alex. said:

O/T - Serious question to those (like SO) who are so vehement in criticism of the "No deal is better than a bad deal" line of the Government. Taking at face value their claims that they accept that Brexit will happen, what do they actually think the Government should publicise as their minimum red lines.

Hypothetical it may be, but how would they actually react if the EU, say, stated that they will refuse to negotiate any trade deal unless the UK promised £50billion annual payment in return. And that's without even seeing how worthwhile the trade deal would be?

If you don't accept "no deal" as an option, then what is the point of negotiating? And what is the alternative to any fait d'accompli presented by the EU?

Hypothetically there must be a point where walking away is better than the best available alternative. In practice the alternative is extremely unlikely to be bad enough to be worth it. Going into a negotiation in that basis will lead to a bad result. The actual negotiating space is better than nothing but less than what we have already. You should negotiate for a lot better than nothing and the smallest downgrade. On that basis I think an acceptable deal is possible, even if we do end up worse off than we are now.

From what I have seen, Labour have a better approach to the Brexit negotiations than the Conservatives.

So effectively you accept that no deal is better than a (very) bad deal.

Isn't therefore the issue here where the definition of "bad deal" lies. Clearly if the Government is saying that they will walk away unless they get all the benefits/rights of EU membership and none of the responsibilities (financial or otherwise) then that is nonsensical. But is that what they are saying?

Why is this so complicated. "No deal" means WTO terms. A good deal is better than that provided the cost of that deal is not greater than the benefits. Tariff free access, for example, is a good deal and worth paying something for. But not an infinite amount.

It's more than that. We're highly integrated. No deal means an effectively permanent dock strike because there isn't the infrastructure on either side of the Channel to handle the paperwork and inspections. A permanent Icelandic volcano eruption because our planes wouldn't be certified and insured to fly. A permanent ban on our medicines and so on and so on.

Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.

Roger said:

timmo said:

Anecdote alert
Wss in a pub last night after a canvass session with a load of other Tory canvassers. A load of youngsters come up and started talking to us. They then burst into sing with Tory scum tory scum tory scum.... They again said they were going to vote for Corbyn but 7 out of 8 of them werent registered and got very upset when we pointed out they had missed the deadline to do so.

So your opponents couldn't vote......Well that's one way of winning an election

As long as you did not prevent them from voting, that's fine. If people make a conscious decision not to register, or register but not exercise their vote, that's fine.

Even though I dislike who must will vote fir, I hope the young vote is up this time.

TheScreamingEagles said:

New BMG polling for Electoral Reform Soc finds 20% saying they'll be voting tactically. This compares with 9% at GE2015

There may we'll be some LDs and Blairites tactically voting against Corbyn as PM in that.

Theuniondivvie said:

Kezia on board the Jezza bandwagon (apart from his inconvenient statements on another indy ref of course).

The soft sludge SNP vote is being squeezed from left and right. I think we'll see and smell a large expulsion of odorous Nat matter from Westminster's alimentary tract in the near future.

glw said:

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn?

Ignorance, but I do have a pet theory to explain it.

Although young people are theoretically better educated and qualified than ever before, they have a less broad and deep cultural and general knowledge.

This is driven by the rise of the internet, and to a lesser extent multi-channel television and the decline of newspapers. In the old days due to the lack of choice you would either entertain yourself or end up watching, reading, and listening to a broad range of programming and opinions, in many cases about subjects that you might previously never have shown any interest in.

In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.

I wonder how many young people today watch the equivalents of Horizon, Arena, Everyman, Heart of the Matter, Q.E.D., Equinox, Panorama, World in Action and the like? I used to watch those programmes regularly when I was a kid, because THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE ON, and there was no internet. So I was exposed to all sorts of subjects and opinions that I would never come across in day-to-day life or in school.

A perfect example of this I read recently was a university lecturer teaching history, they had a student who was certainly bright but had never heard of the term "the Cold War". It had never come up in her education nor had she picked it up from the wider media.

Incidentally I'm not saying that older people are not getting sucked down the same rabbit hole, but they did at least get exposed to a wider culture when they were growing up.

I would have thought you are absolutely correct. Multi channel tv means you just flick through constantly... too much choice! Have you read "Enough" by David Naish?

Patrick said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Patrick said:

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.

They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.

A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?

Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.

You'd still need a school inspection service to make sure that kids were getting taught sensible shot. Otherwise there might be schools that taught the kids practicality nothing and sent the money overseas for some reason.

timmo said:

Anecdote alert
Wss in a pub last night after a canvass session with a load of other Tory canvassers. A load of youngsters come up and started talking to us. They then burst into sing with Tory scum tory scum tory scum.... They again said they were going to vote for Corbyn but 7 out of 8 of them werent registered and got very upset when we pointed out they had missed the deadline to do so.

Did they admit to you that they had spent Wednesday evening in Cambridge where they had been included by the BBC in a studio audience having registered as Undecideds?

TheScreamingEagles said:

New BMG polling for Electoral Reform Soc finds 20% saying they'll be voting tactically. This compares with 9% at GE2015

That is the sliver of good news for the libdems.

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?

I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.

ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.

The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.

The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.

kjh said:

If this is the view our negotiators we are stuffed. Negotiating with someone you are never going to see again and one of the parties gets stuffed by the negotiation is fine e.g. you and the carpet seller. But if you plan an ongoing relationship this is not good. I posted about this yesterday. This is crap negotiating. Deals are successful if you look for the win win scenarios (or minimum loses). I used to represent a number of large organisations who were customers of a particular supplier on an ongoing basis. Both sides understood what the other wanted and gave it away as cheaply as they could get away with, with something they valued greater in return. But they genuinely looked at what the other wanted to achieve. There was no attempt to screw the other side. That doesn't mean the negotiations weren't tough.

Both sides come away happy (maybe not as happy as they would have liked) but better off than when they went in and both sides are happy to come back for more without resentment or likelihood of reneging on the deal

Are we ever going to be buying another Brexit carpet from this seller again? No. You get the best deal you can in this one-off transaction. Sure, we will have an ongoing relationship on security and trade and fishing and....but this one negotiation governs what we get from this parting of the ways.

And don't forget, the carpet seller has to feed his children, look after his elderly mother.... Of course there will be pressure to compromise. On both sides. Eventually. Just not as your stated position, up front.

They may of course ask a million pounds of their moth-eaten, flea-ridden rug. And we may say we will take it to the tip for them, for free. Then we haggle. It won't be a win-win. They are rare. But a sale is a sale. Pocket the money/take the carpet home. Each gets what they wanted - a deal. Start a new day.

Unless, to set out its stall for any future buyers, the EU does decide it wants to be known as The Carpet Seller Who Does Not Haggle. In which case, we shrug our shoulders, walk away and say "Your loss...."

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New BMG polling for Electoral Reform Soc finds 20% saying they'll be voting tactically. This compares with 9% at GE2015

There may we'll be some LDs and Blairites tactically voting against Corbyn as PM in that.

LOL!

The Deplorables know what to do.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. glw, that's astonishing, and deeply alarming.

I know, but we now live in a world where almost anyone can spend every waking hour talking with similar people about the most narrow of subjects. Like here.

The internet was meant to bring about the global village, but I think there is plenty of evidence that it is just as capable of narrowing knowledge and experience, and hardening views.

rcs1000 said:

Patrick said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Patrick said:

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.

They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.

A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?

Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.

You'd still need a school inspection service to make sure that kids were getting taught sensible shot. Otherwise there might be schools that taught the kids practicality nothing and sent the money overseas for some reason.

OFSTED is not part of the DfE. However, I would also close that and hand inspection powers to local authorities backed up by the police. The Home Office could run that perfectly satisfactorily.

One of the problems with Gove is that he listened to civil servants in the DfE - who are incredibly arrogant but actually not very intelligent (I still fume about the memo I had from Wormald where I had to correct his SPaG) and who are very hostile to teachers and indeed education. We could do without these lowlifes who got the job because daddy had the right contacts and that would free up several million more for actual schools.

We could also get rid of OFQUAL or transfer it to the university sector. To call them a bunch of useless numpties would be a gross slander on useless numpties.

Finally, abolishing academy chains and making schools genuinely independent via, if you like, a voucher system would definitely improve matters.

Gove talked about much of this before delivering the opposite.

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

Upping it to 9.1 would have made 350 million a week

Yes if they did it twice over four years it would be about right. That no one in team Theresa saw this is damning.

I really wonder what the hordes of SPADs do.

May would be better off if she got someone to read PB all day.

Yorkcity said:

kle4 said:

nichomar said:

Patrick said:

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.

They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.

I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.

I do t think age automatically comes with wisdom either, but I don't think the young have any special insight either.

Many do into housing problems, which some older people with a house bought some time ago have no real experience of .Especially the rented sector.

Granted, but I was thinking of in the generality. It evens out, as I have experience with renting, but not many issues affecting the elderly.

MikeSmithson said:

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?

I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.

ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.

The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.

The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.

The attitude that May took to the media got their backs up. At the beginning of the campaign she locked the Cornwall live reporters in a room and refused to speak to them. Since then their coverage has been pretty harsh:

http://m.cornwalllive.com/general-election-2017-cornwall-results-too-close-to-call-after-our-latest-shock-poll/story-30363616-detail/story.html

glw said:

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn?

Ignorance, but I do have a pet theory to explain it.

Although young people are theoretically better educated and qualified than ever before, they have a less broad and deep cultural and general knowledge.

This is driven by the rise of the internet, and to a lesser extent multi-channel television and the decline of newspapers. In the old days due to the lack of choice you would either entertain yourself or end up watching, reading, and listening to a broad range of programming and opinions, in many cases about subjects that you might previously never have shown any interest in.

In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.

I wonder how many young people today watch the equivalents of Horizon, Arena, Everyman, Heart of the Matter, Q.E.D., Equinox, Panorama, World in Action and the like? I used to watch those programmes regularly when I was a kid, because THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE ON, and there was no internet. So I was exposed to all sorts of subjects and opinions that I would never come across in day-to-day life or in school.

A perfect example of this I read recently was a university lecturer teaching history, they had a student who was certainly bright but had never heard of the term "the Cold War". It had never come up in her education nor had she picked it up from the wider media.

Incidentally I'm not saying that older people are not getting sucked down the same rabbit hole, but they did at least get exposed to a wider culture when they were growing up.

Surely young people are exposed to a far wider range of culture than ever before?

They watch cartoons from Japan, TV shows from America, play video games against people from all around the world... They are far more likely to have been abroad, met someone from a different religion etc...

Nicola Sturgeon Says The SNP Would Help Jeremy Corbyn Become Prime Minister

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/jamieross/nicola-sturgeon-says-the-snp-would-help-jeremy-corbyn

Harris_Tweed said:

Patrick said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Patrick said:

nichomar said:

Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.

They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.

A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?

Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.

The private view from (some people in) effective (Tory) LAs is that Gove dismantled a working system and left large rural areas at risk from a lack of provision. His ideas on competition probably work OK in urban areas with a lot of choice and even greater demand (and crap, dogmatic LAs), but are seen as a problem when the second-nearest primary school is 10 miles away and the local one's struggling. His curriculum changes also whiff a bit of tinkering to suit personal preference. Ofsted became more focused though, which deserves praise.

I struggle to reconcile his periods at Education and Justice. The latter seemed to be surprisingly progressive in comparison, in terms of encouraging rehabilitation rather than chucking away the key. It makes me wonder whether he's easily influenced by a small range of views around him in each job, rather than having the clear ideological vision he's sometimes apparently credited with.

It might not be that he is influenced by different views in each job, and that he does not have a clear ideological vision. People rarely have entirely consistent ideological views, sometimes they can even passionately hold contradiictory ones.

MikeSmithson said:

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?

I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.

ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.

The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.

The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.

TMay is not the most sparkling of leaders, and I agree she struggles with the riposte that others have had - but when we have had those leaders, they have been particularly poor at running the country.

So I will not be prejudiced against her because she's not a celeb, I will judge it on who is best to handle the next 4/5 years.

The Media have their own priorities and to make it more exciting they are exaggerating May's faults and smoothing Corbyn's toxic nature.

archer101au said:

We need to be serious here. Pretty much every country in the World manages to impose customs controls without destroying their entire economy. It really is not that hard. Every airline manages to get permission to fly over other countries. Medicines get shipped all around the World. The UK already has systems for all of this for the trade it does with the rest of the World. Sorry, but this argument does not fly.

FF43 said:

It's more than that. We're highly integrated. No deal means an effectively permanent dock strike because there isn't the infrastructure on either side of the Channel to handle the paperwork and inspections. A permanent Icelandic volcano eruption because our planes wouldn't be certified and insured to fly. A permanent ban on our medicines and so on and so on.

Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.

Indeed it has those agreements with countries around the world - negotiated on our behalf by the EU, and which will also need renegotiation after Brexit. We have a very deep and profitable integration with the EU that needs replacement with an almost certainly shallower and less profitable agreement. It will happen.

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New BMG polling for Electoral Reform Soc finds 20% saying they'll be voting tactically. This compares with 9% at GE2015

That is the sliver of good news for the libdems.

In Scotland, perhaps, and in existing LD seats. Elsewhere... is that the choice any more?

timmo said:

dyedwoolie said:

Crazy theory conspiracy whack job klaxon
the Lib Dem decline...... it's because their leader is called Tim. It's a weak and wobbly name. It conjures up images of Herman, and the inescapable truth of being a choker and loser (however unfairly), especially when he was superceded by a man mountain like Murray.
I agree with Tim..... sounds like you're agreeing the best day out would be to the exhibition of garden sheds rather than the fun fair.
I've lost it. I know.
And my apologies to all the Tims out there. It's not your fault!

I have always thought my name has held me back in life...

Sorry. I was feeling playful this morning. My dislike of Farron and Henman in equal measure has led me to gingerfy the entire Tim population.
Consider my tongue firmly in my cheek but ashamed of itself.
As punishment I pledge to change my name by deed poll to Cuthbert and stand for election in Glasgow NE.

FF43 said:

archer101au said:

We need to be serious here. Pretty much every country in the World manages to impose customs controls without destroying their entire economy. It really is not that hard. Every airline manages to get permission to fly over other countries. Medicines get shipped all around the World. The UK already has systems for all of this for the trade it does with the rest of the World. Sorry, but this argument does not fly.

FF43 said:

It's more than that. We're highly integrated. No deal means an effectively permanent dock strike because there isn't the infrastructure on either side of the Channel to handle the paperwork and inspections. A permanent Icelandic volcano eruption because our planes wouldn't be certified and insured to fly. A permanent ban on our medicines and so on and so on.

Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.

Indeed it has those agreements with countries around the world - negotiated on our behalf by the EU, and which will also need renegotiation after Brexit. We have a very deep and profitable integration with the EU that needs replacement with an almost certainly shallower and less profitable agreement. It will happen.

Sometimes the mind boggles as to how thick you are. Do you honestly believe that if we leave the EU with no deal that we won't be able to import medicine or flights will stop running? Are you actually that stupid or just being obtuse to try and make a ridiculous point?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. M, I'll have you know I live very near an internet.

Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.

I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.

I suspect there are a lot of adults in the UK who wouldn't know what the cold war was either even though they lived through it.

The fault in any case is with an education system which ensures everyone knows about WWII and the Tudors, Romans and then that's it.

After watching the wafflers and non-wafflers of the Labour and Tory leadership, the only regret the British people should truly have is that neither Sturgeon or the soon to be re-elected Robertson can ever (realistically, there are theories) become PM :-)

rkrkrk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. M, I'll have you know I live very near an internet.

Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.

I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.

I suspect there are a lot of adults in the UK who wouldn't know what the cold war was either even though they lived through it.

The fault in any case is with an education system which ensures everyone knows about WWII and the Tudors, Romans and then that's it.

God, yeah. Always grateful for my O Level (which shows how old it is) 20th Century History course which went from WW1 to Cuba and beyond, (I think)

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

Indeed it has those agreements with countries around the world - negotiated on our behalf by the EU, and which will also need renegotiation after Brexit. We have a very deep and profitable integration with the EU that needs replacement with an almost certainly shallower and less profitable agreement. It will happen.

Sometimes the mind boggles as to how thick you are. Do you honestly believe that if we leave the EU with no deal that we won't be able to import medicine or flights will stop running? Are you actually that stupid or just being obtuse to try and make a ridiculous point?

The danger is that lots of countries realise we're under the gun to replace existing treaties, and use the opportunity to make changes that are not entirely to our advantage.

Which is why, as I've said a hundred times already, it is best to think of Brexit as a process, and not as a big bang 22 months away.

MarkHopkins said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?

I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.

ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.

The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.

The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.

TMay is not the most sparkling of leaders, and I agree she struggles with the riposte that others have had - but when we have had those leaders, they have been particularly poor at running the country.

So I will not be prejudiced against her because she's not a celeb, I will judge it on who is best to handle the next 4/5 years.

The Media have their own priorities and to make it more exciting they are exaggerating May's faults and smoothing Corbyn's toxic nature.

You're saying the media aren't biased against CORBYN ????????


????

?

?


?

rkrkrk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. M, I'll have you know I live very near an internet.

Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.

I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.

I suspect there are a lot of adults in the UK who wouldn't know what the cold war was either even though they lived through it.

The fault in any case is with an education system which ensures everyone knows about WWII and the Tudors, Romans and then that's it.

I believe Mr Corbyn informs us it was the noble fight of the oppressed soviets against the war mongering of imperial America and it's drone colonies in Europe.

glw said:

rkrkrk said:

Surely young people are exposed to a far wider range of culture than ever before?

They watch cartoons from Japan, TV shows from America, play video games against people from all around the world... They are far more likely to have been abroad, met someone from a different religion etc...

That's the theory, in practice it's wider entertainment at best, and a narrower breadth of knowledge.

I used to talk with a much wider range of people on the internet in its early years than I do now. It's a much more focused experience in 2017, and I'm sure that's the case for most users.

I'll see your cold war anecdote and raise you a spaghetti tree hoax:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaghetti-tree_hoax

glw said:

dyedwoolie said:

Crazy theory conspiracy whack job klaxon
the Lib Dem decline...... it's because their leader is called Tim.!

Hmmm, Tim Farron contrast it with say Ted Farron. Edward Farron sounds like a stout-hearted Englishman to me. He's got my vote.

Frank Farron. Sweep up the WWC vote. Freddie Farron maybe.