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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both ICM and YouGov find CON dominance amongst the oldies is n
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both ICM and YouGov find CON dominance amongst the oldies is not as strong as before the manifesto launch
It is one of the overwhelming features of this election that the Tories have a huge advantage with the oldies – those aged 65 or more. So as was widely observed at the time of TMay’s manifesto launch her moves to limit winter fuel allowance and introduce what has become widely known as the dementia tax was a huge risk.
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ComRes doesn't show this trend, with the following Con/Lab splits (not accounting for DKs) for 65+
10-12 May: 62/15
24-26 May: 61/17
So maybe it is something in the last week of May that caused this?
Meanwhile in other news:
https://twitter.com/DrScottThinks/status/870236409562583044
12-13 May 56/23
19-20 May 53/24
26-27 May 53/27
02-Apr 61/12, +49
17-Apr 61/13, +48
18-Apr 68/12, +56
21-Apr 66/15, +51
24-Apr 62/15, +47
28-Apr 64/14, +50
02-May 66/13, +53
05-May 62/17, +45
07-May 73/11, +62
14-May 67/15, +52
21-May 65/18, +47
26-May 62/21, +41
29-May 64/20, +44
UKIP not standing, so that may help offset that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-40126614
Do we have the overnight Conservative Bedwetters numbers in yet?
Usual caveats but not promising for Labour. Hardly surprising from the heart of Brexitshire.
Why are all the lefties so upset ?
Well .... knock me down with an Ed Stone ....
I ask a simple question about coal and before you know it its the new world order
what if it was just the Left was wrong in 1985 ?
Donald's just an old leftie
if you could just have kept that to the first two wordsthat would have been a brave post :-)
Sounds as though your wife has a remarkable notion of how to get people to pay for their own giveaways. Would she be interested in a job in London, complete with grace and favour flat and country house, modest salary, rumoured to become vacant shortly? She would appear to be the ideal CotE!
Probably the last time they didn't was the 1832 election .... when all the Tory editors spent the campaign in the Dunny-on-the Wold spa, partaking of fornication, fundumptiousness and farting to a level unsurpassed since the infamous Danegeld Election of AD991.
I have to say Snap as it's my wifes birthday today - she's 55 - so Ive been serving her breakfast in bed.
have a cracking weekend, just think this time next week you couuld be waking up to Jezza PM!
Why would you put yourself next to such an unpredictable and unreliable person who may not be around that long and can't seem to get anything done in Congress?
Happy Birthday Young Un .....
Enjoy Aldeburgh. A truly lovely part of the coast.
Many happy returns of the day.
Its also a lottery based on whether we ( baby boomers) or for younger readers parents get dementia compared to cancer, strokes, heart disease, disabilities which currently may demand no house sale. It goes to the heart of what type of society we are- most UK voters would prefer the Lib Dem approach pay a few more pennies on income tax for European style health and social care - pool the risk or at least get a balance - not indifferent right wing American public policy misery.
Hopefully that will then be the end of this little experiment with polling-as-entertainment.
Reporting on the SNP/Labour rumours, the BBC quotes the Times as saying Emily Thornberry, 'the Shadow Home Secretary', will set out the stall for a coalition later.
I refuse on principle to give money to the third-rate pseudo-American pornographer. Is someone with more elastic principles able to confirm if it's the Times that has made a muck of this (which would call the story as a whole into question) or Auntie?
Enjoy the coast. Some lovely bird reserves around there. Have a long walk and escape the election. I suspect it will be rather low-key where you are.
Emily Thornberry gets her kit off for the Times
It's quite worrying how little understood this is. I had to explain it to my father when we were doing some financial planning and he's usually very shrewd about such things.
It's also quite shocking how badly this has been explained, allowing nuts like Caroline Lucas, of all people, to exploit it for partisan gain.
Not been to that part of the world before. We usually go to Dorset or Devon. I expect it will be very different - a lot flatter and big skies.
Emily Thornberry undressing while talking about a Labour/SNP alliance would almost certainly lead to the best Liberal result since 1923.
Bottom line is that the Tories should have prepared the ground for this change well in advance of the election, not least by making clear how severe the current £23k limit can be so that the move to £100k is then seen as a significant improvement.
Have to say i think they've had a very unimpressive campaign as well one way and another. Sloppy, disorganised and complacent. Suggests that cuts are biting even as their administration seems to bloat further?
Emily Thornberry gets him excited
Mrs May has certainly proved to be a bitter disappointment for those of us in the Blue Team. Even if the Tories narrowly win the election, I'll be surprised if she continues for more than 18 months as Prime Minister.
Since then the Tories numbers have been spiraling.....the egocentricity of the old is something we had all underestimated.
Of significance today though is Trump's trashing of the climate change agenda. Theresa May has hitched her wagon to Trump's incontinent horse and this is going to make some people -particularly the educated young-very angry indeed and therefore more likely to take the trouble to vote
Get off the internet and enjoy it ;-)
My wife did suggest we put Tory, Labour and Lib Dem posters up in the window in the hope that the SNP get the message. On that we are as one.
Unless she botched the negotiations so badly that Cabinet ministers resign, and then that triggers letters to the '22.
She obviously couldn't survive Davis quitting on her if he did so publicly, on Brexit grounds.
Which had a cap of 72k?
Certainly if she ends with a small majority then she'll be vulnerable but any Tory plotters would, I think, wait for Brexit to be done before moving for May, let her do the dirty stuff and then time their run for the following GE, starting from a low point in the polls and moving up from there.
Hypothetical it may be, but how would they actually react if the EU, say, stated that they will refuse to negotiate any trade deal unless the UK promised £50billion annual payment in return. And that's without even seeing how worthwhile the trade deal would be?
If you don't accept "no deal" as an option, then what is the point of negotiating? And what is the alternative to any fait d'accompli presented by the EU?
Oh and £9bn a year for largely middle class students who are going to earn significantly more in the future as well. Of course those in the gig economy should be paying taxes to fund that as well. Labour seem to really have it in for what was their core support.
Carpet-haggling 1.01. They have to believe you will walk out without a carpet. Corbyn has already said he will buy a carpet, regardless. The man is a fool.
Happy birthday! Have a good one.
It really isn't hard.
Simon Hughes has previous on it
1) Financial Transaction tax
2) Levy on all salaries over (?)£300k
3) No Government contracts for anyone without the approved top/bottom pay multiples
4) Large increases in corporation tax
5) Large rises in tax for higher earners
What's the point in the City lobbying a Corbyn Government?
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
This is Hillary 16 levels of shit. Worst campaign I've ever seen by the Tory party.
Happy birthday, Mr. Observer. You're a similar age to Caesar whilst still contending the civil war. I hope you have a better life expectancy, though.
On-topic: a clear decline in support, but the advantage remains massive. If May gets a 40 point lead over Labour in the demographic that votes the most, hard to see her losing, isn't it?