The EU's trade with the U.K. is about the same as its trade with the US and we know the urgency with which that trade deal is being concluded...
That's already being conducted on a WTO basis (mostly) and the US market is 5x bigger. What you're suggesting is we move down to per capita trading on the same level as the US then the EU will lose 80% of the trade surplus it currently has with the UK, worth about £60bn per year for the EU. In addition to the loss of the £12bn net contribution per year to the EU budget.
£72bn = 0.4% of EU GDP. A price worth paying pour discourager les autres.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
I see you're in trolling mode this morning! I am 53 today and feeling old, so will not partake. Off to Aldeburgh for the weekend later. Looking forward to hearing and seeing the sea, and eating and drinking my fill. My wife has said it's my birthday present; but as I'm paying for it and driving us there I am not sure how that works!
53 is old ............... Tsk .............
Happy Birthday Young Un .....
It's all relative. If you've never been 53 before, it's old. I was 27 last week, I'm sure ;-)
I turn 30 this summer, that feels old.
Happy birthday! Have a good one.
30 was a tough one. I was quite unhappy about it. Felt far too grown up
Might be my imagination, but since turning 30 it feels like a lot more people seek or are willing to hear my advice, even though I occupy the same position. Feels weird.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first
There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."
Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.
I pointed this out too.
If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.
I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.
The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.
Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.
Utter nonsense. What you mean is "you" want a socialist brexit, "the people" simply want to leave.
You really need to widen the circle of people you engage with, you appear to live in an echo chamber.
The youth will all be down the pub June 8 celebrating their surge to get Jeremy elected. Then, at 10 and just like Bart Simpsons class president campaign, they'll turn to each other and realise none of them actually voted.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
I agree wholeheartedly with that. There is an overriding managerial style in the Tory effort, something that looks pretty unattractive when you keep making mistakes. Where is the vision?
Why did she not focus so much more on what she wants to do in education, for example? I am not a fan of grammar schools but a strong commitment to helping those from every background succeed could have been a rallying point.
There in stuff in there on that in the manifesto, but Theresa isn't a good communicator.
She badly needs a Willie. And I don't mean Nick Timothy.
Nick Timothy is more a dick than a Willie.
But I've written a thread for Sunday on who should be Mrs May's Willie.
Aren't a spine and a brain rather higher priorities ?
New BMG polling for Electoral Reform Soc finds 20% saying they'll be voting tactically. This compares with 9% at GE2015
And how many 'said' they would be voting tactically at this point at the last election. I'd have thought the true figure would be less than 20%, and probably nearer to 9% again.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
Absolutely the reality of 'Can't pay ( dad's care bills) we'll take the property away' is frightening especially for those who had their children later in life or for those needing care earlier in their 70s. This potentially affects all house owners and affects many families full on.
Its also a lottery based on whether we ( baby boomers) or for younger readers parents get dementia compared to cancer, strokes, heart disease, disabilities which currently may demand no house sale. It goes to the heart of what type of society we are- most UK voters would prefer the Lib Dem approach pay a few more pennies on income tax for European style health and social care - pool the risk or at least get a balance - not indifferent right wing American public policy misery.
There are a huge amount of people in the country who struggle to make their pay last to the end of the month. People with no prospect of owning a house or inheriting a house, people for whom a few more pence on income tax would make their lives even harder. Sure they would happily spend 40 years of working life struggling harder so the haves could pass on the house to Tristan and Jemima
Quite. The dementia tax threatens to be the most effective wealth tax we have ever had. So, of course, Labour is against it. Inherited wealth must be protected apparently.
I still think Labour running to the defence of millionaires keeping their WFA is the most bizarre thing that has happened in this election. How the hell do they defend that on the doorsteps of council estates/social housing?
They don't have to because the Tories bungled it by saying it would stay in Scotland.
This is Hillary 16 levels of shit. Worst campaign I've ever seen by the Tory party.
I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.
Me too. What this site needs is a bit of server side cleverness which auto-corrects "PB Tories" to "straw men" every time the expression is typed.
Indeed, I remember when I floated the idea there was a lot of agreement that we should do it because Labour would. Imagine revealing the manifesto with that pledge in it "an additional £350m per week for the NHS by the end of 2022" it would have massively resonated and disarmed all those idiots asking for £350m per week.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first
There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."
Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.
I pointed this out too.
If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.
I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.
The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.
Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.
Not if she does end up getting a landslide or comfortable majority she won't, as it will be proven to be mere fluff.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first hour of the first strategy meeting for how to fight this election. And Labour were always going to pull numbers out their arse and offer sweeties to all. Obvious from the first hour of the first strategy meeting for how to fight this election.
The Tories can still win a massive majority. Fight Labour on both fronts - give the people the £350m a week extra for the NHS they clearly want. By the end of this term, after she has negotiated Brexit, thereng to raise tax to achieve it by 2022. So they may have to end up stealing the LibDems only policy, the 1p on tax for the NHS. So what. They have already suffered the pain of refusing to raise Income Tax. Make some bloody mileage out of it.
There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."
Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.
I pointed this out too.
If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.
They did promise an extra £8 billion a year for the next 2 years for the NHS
And completely failed to communicate it!
May is a total dud.
No one gives the Tories credit for increasing NHS funding, especially if others are offering even more.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first
There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."
Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.
I pointed this out too.
If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.
I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.
The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.
Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.
Not if she does end up getting a landslide or comfortable majority she won't, as it will be proven to be mere fluff.
Mr. Hopkins, Peston was hard-hitting yesterday, though. Corbyn handled the questions well, especially the difficult one about whether or not he would keep his allotment.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
deleted space issues
##that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first
There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."
Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.
I pointed this out too.
If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.
I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.
The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.
Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.
They want a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit on economics but a Le Pen/Farage Brexit on immigration and sovereignty
I have been saying for months that Corbyn should be flogging the peoples Brexit vs the Bosses Brexit, but I think that message has got through unspoken.
I am expecting a Tory majority, but it is going to be a pyrric victory. They are settingthemselves up for a 97 style Labour landslide in 22.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.
I do t think age automatically comes with wisdom either, but I don't think the young have any special insight either.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn?
Ignorance, but I do have a pet theory to explain it.
Although young people are theoretically better educated and qualified than ever before, they have a less broad and deep cultural and general knowledge.
This is driven by the rise of the internet, and to a lesser extent multi-channel television and the decline of newspapers. In the old days due to the lack of choice you would either entertain yourself or end up watching, reading, and listening to a broad range of programming and opinions, in many cases about subjects that you might previously never have shown any interest in.
In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.
I wonder how many young people today watch the equivalents of Horizon, Arena, Everyman, Heart of the Matter, Q.E.D., Equinox, Panorama, World in Action and the like? I used to watch those programmes regularly when I was a kid, because THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE ON, and there was no internet. So I was exposed to all sorts of subjects and opinions that I would never come across in day-to-day life or in school.
A perfect example of this I read recently was a university lecturer teaching history, they had a student who was certainly bright but had never heard of the term "the Cold War". It had never come up in her education nor had she picked it up from the wider media.
Incidentally I'm not saying that older people are not getting sucked down the same rabbit hole, but they did at least get exposed to a wider culture when they were growing up.
"I've been going around the country talking to real people and they have been concerned that our NHS is being underfunded. Once we have left the EU we will support the NHS by a further 350 million pounds a week, as people believe they were promised during the Referendum. This will support one of our key institutions, but acheieving this will require a strong mandate from the British people so that I can stop sending money to Brussels."
Simon Hughes on SKY News saying hes out on the doorstep every day and the Lib Dems will win seats from Labour and the Conservatives BUT says Conservatives will win
SNP yes. Tories, hmmmm. But Labour???
Well there's Cambridge, which I think is safe but is a tiny majority and some think still in play. Other than that?
The EU's trade with the U.K. is about the same as its trade with the US and we know the urgency with which that trade deal is being concluded...
That's already being conducted on a WTO basis (mostly) and the US market is 5x bigger. What you're suggesting is we move down to per capita trading on the same level as the US then the EU will lose 80% of the trade surplus it currently has with the UK, worth about £60bn per year for the EU. In addition to the loss of the £12bn net contribution per year to the EU budget.
£72bn = 0.4% of EU GDP. A price worth paying pour discourager les autres.
And a prolonged recession in Northern Europe? A possible trade war over the EU trying redomicile Euro trading vs deregulation in the City?
The Conservatives have issued a Clear Plan for Brexit it's actually a wishlist, not a plan. 9 of the wishes are served by being a member of the EU; 2 by leaving. That implies a negotiation that aims to retain as many as possible of the 9 existing benefits while not compromising the two new benefits, which in principle have nothing to do with the EU. (That's why we are leaving the EU).
Your implication that the Conservative party has an EU exit "wishlist" is outrageous. Grossly defamatory.
Presently the Tory government has a slogan. "BREXIT Means BREXIT"
That's it .... Ooppps sorry .... they also have Liam Fox too.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first
There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."
Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging an additional £350m per week by the end of 2022. It would literally have won the election. Fuck the economics of doing so, I'd rather we be in charge of an unfunded economy than Labour be in charge of it.
I pointed this out too.
If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.
I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.
The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.
Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.
Not if she does end up getting a landslide or comfortable majority she won't, as it will be proven to be mere fluff.
That's what the Tories thought in 92.
This time they might be able to avoid being systemically corrupt and shoving carrots up donkeys arses for sex kicks.
The BBC - for some years now - has had rules keeping polls well down its agenda during election campaigns (probably what drew me to PB to find out the latest )
7.1 Reporting Polls During the campaign our reporting of opinion polls should take into account three key factors: • they are part of the story of the campaign and audiences should, where appropriate, be informed about them; • context is essential, and we must ensure the accuracy and appropriateness of the language used in reporting them; • polls can be wrong - there are real dangers in only reporting the most “newsworthy” polls – i.e. those which, on a one-off basis, show dramatic movement. Even apparently consistent trends may be wrong or failing to tell the whole story of what is happening So, the general rules and guidance applying to the reporting of polls need to be strictly applied during election campaigns. They are: • not to lead a news bulletin or programme simply with the results of an opinion poll (especially a single voting intention poll); • not to headline, on broadcast output, the results of a single voting intention poll unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll’s findings is necessary to make sense of it; • not to rely on the interpretation given to a poll’s results by the organisation or publication which commissioned it, but to come to our own view by looking at the questions, the results and the trend; • to report the findings of voting intentions polls in the context of trend. The trend may consist of the results of all major polls over a period or may be limited to the change in a single pollster’s findings. Poll results which defy trends without convincing explanation should be treated with particular scepticism and caution; • not to use language which gives greater credibility to the polls than they deserve: polls “suggest” but never “prove” or even “show”; it is important that other editorial judgements – eg which aspects of the election may be given more coverage – do not rely too heavily on what the polls may appear to be indicating. • to report the expected margin of error if the gap between the contenders is within the margin. On television and online, graphics should always show the margin of error; • to report the organisation which carried out the poll and the organisation or publication which commissioned it; Particular care should be taken with newspaper reviews; polling alone should not normally be the lead item in a newspaper review and should always be reported with a sentence of context (e.g: “that’s rather out of line with other polls this week”).
O/T - Serious question to those (like SO) who are so vehement in criticism of the "No deal is better than a bad deal" line of the Government. Taking at face value their claims that they accept that Brexit will happen, what do they actually think the Government should publicise as their minimum red lines.
Hypothetical it may be, but how would they actually react if the EU, say, stated that they will refuse to negotiate any trade deal unless the UK promised £50billion annual payment in return. And that's without even seeing how worthwhile the trade deal would be?
If you don't accept "no deal" as an option, then what is the point of negotiating? And what is the alternative to any fait d'accompli presented by the EU?
Hypothetically there must be a point where walking away is better than the best available alternative. In practice the alternative is extremely unlikely to be bad enough to be worth it. Going into a negotiation in that basis will lead to a bad result. The actual negotiating space is better than nothing but less than what we have already. You should negotiate for a lot better than nothing and the smallest downgrade. On that basis I think an acceptable deal is possible, even if we do end up worse off than we are now.
From what I have seen, Labour have a better approach to the Brexit negotiations than the Conservatives.
So effectively you accept that no deal is better than a (very) bad deal.
Isn't therefore the issue here where the definition of "bad deal" lies. Clearly if the Government is saying that they will walk away unless they get all the benefits/rights of EU membership and none of the responsibilities (financial or otherwise) then that is nonsensical. But is that what they are saying?
Why is this so complicated. "No deal" means WTO terms. A good deal is better than that provided the cost of that deal is not greater than the benefits. Tariff free access, for example, is a good deal and worth paying something for. But not an infinite amount.
It's more than that. We're highly integrated. No deal means an effectively permanent dock strike because there isn't the infrastructure on either side of the Channel to handle the paperwork and inspections. A permanent Icelandic volcano eruption because our planes wouldn't be certified and insured to fly. A permanent ban on our medicines and so on and so on.
Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.
The BME community really did not like the only I can unlock your talent pitch. Won't shift votes though, it's like social care and the elderly. Might have some sit on their hands though.
Anecdote alert Wss in a pub last night after a canvass session with a load of other Tory canvassers. A load of youngsters come up and started talking to us. They then burst into sing with Tory scum tory scum tory scum.... They again said they were going to vote for Corbyn but 7 out of 8 of them werent registered and got very upset when we pointed out they had missed the deadline to do so.
So your opponents couldn't vote......Well that's one way of winning an election
As long as you did not prevent them from voting, that's fine. If people make a conscious decision not to register, or register but not exercise their vote, that's fine.
Even though I dislike who must will vote fir, I hope the young vote is up this time.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.
I do t think age automatically comes with wisdom either, but I don't think the young have any special insight either.
Actually agree there I was trying to provide a view on the why this is "apparently" happening as opposed to suggesting they are right.
Kezia on board the Jezza bandwagon (apart from his inconvenient statements on another indy ref of course).
The soft sludge SNP vote is being squeezed from left and right. I think we'll see and smell a large expulsion of odorous Nat matter from Westminster's alimentary tract in the near future.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn?
In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn?
Ignorance, but I do have a pet theory to explain it.
Although young people are theoretically better educated and qualified than ever before, they have a less broad and deep cultural and general knowledge.
This is driven by the rise of the internet, and to a lesser extent multi-channel television and the decline of newspapers. In the old days due to the lack of choice you would either entertain yourself or end up watching, reading, and listening to a broad range of programming and opinions, in many cases about subjects that you might previously never have shown any interest in.
In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.
I wonder how many young people today watch the equivalents of Horizon, Arena, Everyman, Heart of the Matter, Q.E.D., Equinox, Panorama, World in Action and the like? I used to watch those programmes regularly when I was a kid, because THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE ON, and there was no internet. So I was exposed to all sorts of subjects and opinions that I would never come across in day-to-day life or in school.
A perfect example of this I read recently was a university lecturer teaching history, they had a student who was certainly bright but had never heard of the term "the Cold War". It had never come up in her education nor had she picked it up from the wider media.
Incidentally I'm not saying that older people are not getting sucked down the same rabbit hole, but they did at least get exposed to a wider culture when they were growing up.
I would have thought you are absolutely correct. Multi channel tv means you just flick through constantly... too much choice! Have you read "Enough" by David Naish?
Surely May could pull a rabbit out of the hat......
With the dire state of the Conservative campaign if the PM tried to pull a rabbit out of the hat the probability is that it would be a dead Bugs Bunny ripped to pieces by local huntsman.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
You'd still need a school inspection service to make sure that kids were getting taught sensible shot. Otherwise there might be schools that taught the kids practicality nothing and sent the money overseas for some reason.
Simon Hughes on SKY News saying hes out on the doorstep every day and the Lib Dems will win seats from Labour and the Conservatives BUT says Conservatives will win
SNP yes. Tories, hmmmm. But Labour???
Well there's Cambridge, which I think is safe but is a tiny majority and some think still in play. Other than that?
They were favs for Burnley at the start of the campaign but I don't see any hope there at all.
Anecdote alert Wss in a pub last night after a canvass session with a load of other Tory canvassers. A load of youngsters come up and started talking to us. They then burst into sing with Tory scum tory scum tory scum.... They again said they were going to vote for Corbyn but 7 out of 8 of them werent registered and got very upset when we pointed out they had missed the deadline to do so.
Did they admit to you that they had spent Wednesday evening in Cambridge where they had been included by the BBC in a studio audience having registered as Undecideds?
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
You'd still need a school inspection service to make sure that kids were getting taught sensible shot. Otherwise there might be schools that taught the kids practicality nothing and sent the money overseas for some reason.
Doesn't that already happen in parts of Birmingham?
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
The BME community really did not like the only I can unlock your talent pitch. Won't shift votes though, it's like social care and the elderly. Might have some sit on their hands though.
It was hilarious. Only this white man can be trusted to unlock your potential. Yes, even those of you who disagree and support other parties.
I know what they were trying to say, but as a white man on behalf of bame everywhere , it was poorly expressed.
As this in the internet, I clarify that was a joke.
If this is the view our negotiators we are stuffed. Negotiating with someone you are never going to see again and one of the parties gets stuffed by the negotiation is fine e.g. you and the carpet seller. But if you plan an ongoing relationship this is not good. I posted about this yesterday. This is crap negotiating. Deals are successful if you look for the win win scenarios (or minimum loses). I used to represent a number of large organisations who were customers of a particular supplier on an ongoing basis. Both sides understood what the other wanted and gave it away as cheaply as they could get away with, with something they valued greater in return. But they genuinely looked at what the other wanted to achieve. There was no attempt to screw the other side. That doesn't mean the negotiations weren't tough.
Both sides come away happy (maybe not as happy as they would have liked) but better off than when they went in and both sides are happy to come back for more without resentment or likelihood of reneging on the deal
Are we ever going to be buying another Brexit carpet from this seller again? No. You get the best deal you can in this one-off transaction. Sure, we will have an ongoing relationship on security and trade and fishing and....but this one negotiation governs what we get from this parting of the ways.
And don't forget, the carpet seller has to feed his children, look after his elderly mother.... Of course there will be pressure to compromise. On both sides. Eventually. Just not as your stated position, up front.
They may of course ask a million pounds of their moth-eaten, flea-ridden rug. And we may say we will take it to the tip for them, for free. Then we haggle. It won't be a win-win. They are rare. But a sale is a sale. Pocket the money/take the carpet home. Each gets what they wanted - a deal. Start a new day.
Unless, to set out its stall for any future buyers, the EU does decide it wants to be known as The Carpet Seller Who Does Not Haggle. In which case, we shrug our shoulders, walk away and say "Your loss...."
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.
I do t think age automatically comes with wisdom either, but I don't think the young have any special insight either.
Many do into housing problems, which some older people with a house bought some time ago have no real experience of .Especially the rented sector.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.
I do t think age automatically comes with wisdom either, but I don't think the young have any special insight either.
Actually agree there I was trying to provide a view on the why this is "apparently" happening as opposed to suggesting they are right.
Oh I thought so, but you see the 'insight' line peddled so etimes, even to the point of the elderly shouldn't get to vote!
We need to be serious here. Pretty much every country in the World manages to impose customs controls without destroying their entire economy. It really is not that hard. Every airline manages to get permission to fly over other countries. Medicines get shipped all around the World. The UK already has systems for all of this for the trade it does with the rest of the World. Sorry, but this argument does not fly.
It's more than that. We're highly integrated. No deal means an effectively permanent dock strike because there isn't the infrastructure on either side of the Channel to handle the paperwork and inspections. A permanent Icelandic volcano eruption because our planes wouldn't be certified and insured to fly. A permanent ban on our medicines and so on and so on.
Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
This is sadly true. She is Gordon Brown, but even worse. It's pretty clear now she's been found out. Just hope the tories get away with it, if they let Corbyn in......
Ed might have been crap, but I think most people could have lived with it, Corbyn will be an utter disaster with all he bring with him.
I know, but we now live in a world where almost anyone can spend every waking hour talking with similar people about the most narrow of subjects. Like here.
The internet was meant to bring about the global village, but I think there is plenty of evidence that it is just as capable of narrowing knowledge and experience, and hardening views.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
You'd still need a school inspection service to make sure that kids were getting taught sensible shot. Otherwise there might be schools that taught the kids practicality nothing and sent the money overseas for some reason.
Okay, to be fair you're right and that won't change in a hurry.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
You'd still need a school inspection service to make sure that kids were getting taught sensible shot. Otherwise there might be schools that taught the kids practicality nothing and sent the money overseas for some reason.
OFSTED is not part of the DfE. However, I would also close that and hand inspection powers to local authorities backed up by the police. The Home Office could run that perfectly satisfactorily.
One of the problems with Gove is that he listened to civil servants in the DfE - who are incredibly arrogant but actually not very intelligent (I still fume about the memo I had from Wormald where I had to correct his SPaG) and who are very hostile to teachers and indeed education. We could do without these lowlifes who got the job because daddy had the right contacts and that would free up several million more for actual schools.
We could also get rid of OFQUAL or transfer it to the university sector. To call them a bunch of useless numpties would be a gross slander on useless numpties.
Finally, abolishing academy chains and making schools genuinely independent via, if you like, a voucher system would definitely improve matters.
Gove talked about much of this before delivering the opposite.
Crazy theory conspiracy whack job klaxon the Lib Dem decline...... it's because their leader is called Tim. It's a weak and wobbly name. It conjures up images of Herman, and the inescapable truth of being a choker and loser (however unfairly), especially when he was superceded by a man mountain like Murray. I agree with Tim..... sounds like you're agreeing the best day out would be to the exhibition of garden sheds rather than the fun fair. I've lost it. I know. And my apologies to all the Tims out there. It's not your fault!
New BMG polling for Electoral Reform Soc finds 20% saying they'll be voting tactically. This compares with 9% at GE2015
There may we'll be some LDs and Blairites tactically voting against Corbyn as PM in that.
On the podcast yesterday there were remarks that some anti-Corbyn Labour voters were going to vote Labour to avoid annihilation - now that no longer appears to be a worry....
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
I'm afraid I don't buy "with age comes wisdom" line our younger generation have a greater exposure to world events and views than I did during the 60's and 70's and are better informed than I was. Yes with age comes different responsibilities which will alter the way you individually see things but that in itself doesn't confer wisdom.
I do t think age automatically comes with wisdom either, but I don't think the young have any special insight either.
Many do into housing problems, which some older people with a house bought some time ago have no real experience of .Especially the rented sector.
Granted, but I was thinking of in the generality. It evens out, as I have experience with renting, but not many issues affecting the elderly.
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
The private view from (some people in) effective (Tory) LAs is that Gove dismantled a working system and left large rural areas at risk from a lack of provision. His ideas on competition probably work OK in urban areas with a lot of choice and even greater demand (and crap, dogmatic LAs), but are seen as a problem when the second-nearest primary school is 10 miles away and the local one's struggling. His curriculum changes also whiff a bit of tinkering to suit personal preference. Ofsted became more focused though, which deserves praise.
I struggle to reconcile his periods at Education and Justice. The latter seemed to be surprisingly progressive in comparison, in terms of encouraging rehabilitation rather than chucking away the key. It makes me wonder whether he's easily influenced by a small range of views around him in each job, rather than having the clear ideological vision he's sometimes apparently credited with.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
The attitude that May took to the media got their backs up. At the beginning of the campaign she locked the Cornwall live reporters in a room and refused to speak to them. Since then their coverage has been pretty harsh:
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn?
Ignorance, but I do have a pet theory to explain it.
Although young people are theoretically better educated and qualified than ever before, they have a less broad and deep cultural and general knowledge.
This is driven by the rise of the internet, and to a lesser extent multi-channel television and the decline of newspapers. In the old days due to the lack of choice you would either entertain yourself or end up watching, reading, and listening to a broad range of programming and opinions, in many cases about subjects that you might previously never have shown any interest in.
In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.
I wonder how many young people today watch the equivalents of Horizon, Arena, Everyman, Heart of the Matter, Q.E.D., Equinox, Panorama, World in Action and the like? I used to watch those programmes regularly when I was a kid, because THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE ON, and there was no internet. So I was exposed to all sorts of subjects and opinions that I would never come across in day-to-day life or in school.
A perfect example of this I read recently was a university lecturer teaching history, they had a student who was certainly bright but had never heard of the term "the Cold War". It had never come up in her education nor had she picked it up from the wider media.
Incidentally I'm not saying that older people are not getting sucked down the same rabbit hole, but they did at least get exposed to a wider culture when they were growing up.
Surely young people are exposed to a far wider range of culture than ever before?
They watch cartoons from Japan, TV shows from America, play video games against people from all around the world... They are far more likely to have been abroad, met someone from a different religion etc...
Mr. M, I'll have you know I live very near an internet.
Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.
I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.
Crazy theory conspiracy whack job klaxon the Lib Dem decline...... it's because their leader is called Tim. It's a weak and wobbly name. It conjures up images of Herman, and the inescapable truth of being a choker and loser (however unfairly), especially when he was superceded by a man mountain like Murray. I agree with Tim..... sounds like you're agreeing the best day out would be to the exhibition of garden sheds rather than the fun fair. I've lost it. I know. And my apologies to all the Tims out there. It's not your fault!
I have always thought my name has held me back in life...
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
The private view from (some people in) effective (Tory) LAs is that Gove dismantled a working system and left large rural areas at risk from a lack of provision. His ideas on competition probably work OK in urban areas with a lot of choice and even greater demand (and crap, dogmatic LAs), but are seen as a problem when the second-nearest primary school is 10 miles away and the local one's struggling. His curriculum changes also whiff a bit of tinkering to suit personal preference. Ofsted became more focused though, which deserves praise.
I struggle to reconcile his periods at Education and Justice. The latter seemed to be surprisingly progressive in comparison, in terms of encouraging rehabilitation rather than chucking away the key. It makes me wonder whether he's easily influenced by a small range of views around him in each job, rather than having the clear ideological vision he's sometimes apparently credited with.
It might not be that he is influenced by different views in each job, and that he does not have a clear ideological vision. People rarely have entirely consistent ideological views, sometimes they can even passionately hold contradiictory ones.
The EU's trade with the U.K. is about the same as its trade with the US and we know the urgency with which that trade deal is being concluded...
That's already being conducted on a WTO basis (mostly) and the US market is 5x bigger. What you're suggesting is we move down to per capita trading on the same level as the US then the EU will lose 80% of the trade surplus it currently has with the UK, worth about £60bn per year for the EU. In addition to the loss of the £12bn net contribution per year to the EU budget.
£72bn = 0.4% of EU GDP. A price worth paying pour discourager les autres.
And a prolonged recession in Northern Europe? A possible trade war over the EU trying redomicile Euro trading vs deregulation in the City?
The full Fraser there. I thought you lot didn't go in for Project Fear?
Mr. Roger, saw a tiny clip of that on Twitter. Farron came across as an absolute dick (constantly trying to talk over Neil when being asked a question on a second referendum). It really wasn't a good look.
Indeed, but I think Neil was asking the wrong question: the right question is, how can you imagine that the A50 negotiations can yield two agreements - a Leave agreement and a Remain Anyway agreement?
Not just the left. In practice, Trump's decision will change nothing and cost more US jobs than it saves as cleantech investors and businesses look elsewhere. Geopolitically it marks the moment that the US gave up on global leadership, clearing the path for others to take over. Mrs May has thrown the UK's lot in with a loser, all in the hope of a trade deal she's not going to get.
tsk
I ask a simple question about coal and before you know it its the new world order
what if it was just the Left was wrong in 1985 ?
It was. So was the right. Deindustrialisation was handled appallingly in the UK (see squandering of North Sea oil money, for example). We continue to pay the price now - particularly outside London.
lol
if you could just have kept that to the first two wordsthat would have been a brave post :-)
I see you're in trolling mode this morning! I am 53 today and feeling old, so will not partake. Off to Aldeburgh for the weekend later. Looking forward to hearing and seeing the sea, and eating and drinking my fill. My wife has said it's my birthday present; but as I'm paying for it and driving us there I am not sure how that works!
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
TMay is not the most sparkling of leaders, and I agree she struggles with the riposte that others have had - but when we have had those leaders, they have been particularly poor at running the country.
So I will not be prejudiced against her because she's not a celeb, I will judge it on who is best to handle the next 4/5 years.
The Media have their own priorities and to make it more exciting they are exaggerating May's faults and smoothing Corbyn's toxic nature.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
Quite correct Mike.
However the Conservatives will still romp home despite May's poor campaign. They opted for a ultra low risk strategy protecting the PM from as much scrutiny as they could get away with.
What the Tories hadn't factored for was that Jezza loves campaigning, even in lost causes. He's been doing it for decades. The contrast is stark :
Corbyn loves talking boll*cks and does so with conviction and passion. Headmistress May talks in soundbites and platitudes and can't wait for parents evening to finish.
We need to be serious here. Pretty much every country in the World manages to impose customs controls without destroying their entire economy. It really is not that hard. Every airline manages to get permission to fly over other countries. Medicines get shipped all around the World. The UK already has systems for all of this for the trade it does with the rest of the World. Sorry, but this argument does not fly.
It's more than that. We're highly integrated. No deal means an effectively permanent dock strike because there isn't the infrastructure on either side of the Channel to handle the paperwork and inspections. A permanent Icelandic volcano eruption because our planes wouldn't be certified and insured to fly. A permanent ban on our medicines and so on and so on.
Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.
Indeed it has those agreements with countries around the world - negotiated on our behalf by the EU, and which will also need renegotiation after Brexit. We have a very deep and profitable integration with the EU that needs replacement with an almost certainly shallower and less profitable agreement. It will happen.
I would have thought you are absolutely correct. Multi channel tv means you just flick through constantly... too much choice! Have you read "Enough" by David Naish?
Even flicking through the channels is better than today where you can just go on YouTube and watch millions of videos about your interest.
Imagine trying to explain to young people that channels were off-air over night, or even mid-afternoon, and that we had just 4 or even less channels to choose from. Then explain that channels would schedule "boring" programmes in prime time, and you had to watch them because your parents wanted to watch them, and there was only one TV in the house.
Let's face it, the whole thing was made up by Labour as they went along. No coherence whatsoever. The REAL level of failure of the Tory campaign was never to get that nailed. Now, I can accept there might be an argument that you are giving it an undeserved credibility by even talking about it. But it is a huge failure.
Where is Hammond - he should be nailing every line of their manifesto as a fiasco that will result in vast tax hikes for Joe and Joanna Average. Anyone would think he is off sulking because he expects to lose his job...
No the real failure was not having any positive message, and still not having one. Whatever one thinks of the Labour campaign, it is relentlessly positive (just unrealistic). Our campaign is "Theresa isn't Jeremy, and here's a bunch of policies that our base will hate plus a bunch that make us look like house confiscators". It's just awful.
It was a Brexit election. There is nothing to talk about in Brexit - it is going to happen. Obvious from the first
There is still time for it being about the only thing people remember from this campaign. "Theresa stands by delivering Brexit, so that the NHS can get the money it needs...bless her, she's got my vote...."
Yes, I honestly think that the Tories made a mistake in not pledging nomy than Labour be in charge of it.
I pointed this out too.
If only the PB Tories hadn't been deriding it for a year whenever I or others mentioned it.
I said it here ages before, pledge an additional £350m by the end of the five years, let inflation eat into some and then it's not much higher than the £8bn already pledged.
The people want a Socialist Brexit, a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit, not a Hannanite one.
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at the Tory panic, while May scrabbles around.
Whoever wins the election is going to have to meet those demands, or the pitchforks and torches will be on their way to Westminster. That is how populist movements end.
They want a Melenchon/Corbyn Brexit on economics but a Le Pen/Farage Brexit on immigration and sovereignty
I have been saying for months that Corbyn should be flogging the peoples Brexit vs the Bosses Brexit, but I think that message has got through unspoken.
I am expecting a Tory majority, but it is going to be a pyrric victory. They are settingthemselves up for a 97 style Labour landslide in 22.
No this is 1987 with Corbyn doing well enough to survive like Kinnock. That means 2022 is 1992 not 1997
Crazy theory conspiracy whack job klaxon the Lib Dem decline...... it's because their leader is called Tim. It's a weak and wobbly name. It conjures up images of Herman, and the inescapable truth of being a choker and loser (however unfairly), especially when he was superceded by a man mountain like Murray. I agree with Tim..... sounds like you're agreeing the best day out would be to the exhibition of garden sheds rather than the fun fair. I've lost it. I know. And my apologies to all the Tims out there. It's not your fault!
I have always thought my name has held me back in life...
Sorry. I was feeling playful this morning. My dislike of Farron and Henman in equal measure has led me to gingerfy the entire Tim population. Consider my tongue firmly in my cheek but ashamed of itself. As punishment I pledge to change my name by deed poll to Cuthbert and stand for election in Glasgow NE.
We need to be serious here. Pretty much every country in the World manages to impose customs controls without destroying their entire economy. It really is not that hard. Every airline manages to get permission to fly over other countries. Medicines get shipped all around the World. The UK already has systems for all of this for the trade it does with the rest of the World. Sorry, but this argument does not fly.
It's more than that. We're highly integrated. No deal means an effectively permanent dock strike because there isn't the infrastructure on either side of the Channel to handle the paperwork and inspections. A permanent Icelandic volcano eruption because our planes wouldn't be certified and insured to fly. A permanent ban on our medicines and so on and so on.
Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.
Indeed it has those agreements with countries around the world - negotiated on our behalf by the EU, and which will also need renegotiation after Brexit. We have a very deep and profitable integration with the EU that needs replacement with an almost certainly shallower and less profitable agreement. It will happen.
Sometimes the mind boggles as to how thick you are. Do you honestly believe that if we leave the EU with no deal that we won't be able to import medicine or flights will stop running? Are you actually that stupid or just being obtuse to try and make a ridiculous point?
Why are young people apparently turning to Corbyn? They have grown up in a multicultural world and don't hate immigrants, the are too young to remember what more power to the unions and creeping nationalisation could mean. He is taking his time to actually court them and most of all given the complete failure to look into the future past brexit by all parties they are choosing what is to them the least worse option.
They have grown up and been educated in the intensely lefty patisan world of our public education system. They have not been exposed to history, alternative worldviews or reality yet.
A lefty partisan education system run by the Tories, you mean?
Yes. Gove fought The Blob pretty heroically but could only achieve so much. I think we should go to a 100% vouchers system and close the Department for Education.
The private view from (some people in) effective (Tory) LAs is that Gove dismantled a working system and left large rural areas at risk from a lack of provision. His ideas on competition probably work OK in urban areas with a lot of choice and even greater demand (and crap, dogmatic LAs), but are seen as a problem when the second-nearest primary school is 10 miles away and the local one's struggling. His curriculum changes also whiff a bit of tinkering to suit personal preference. Ofsted became more focused though, which deserves praise.
I struggle to reconcile his periods at Education and Justice. The latter seemed to be surprisingly progressive in comparison, in terms of encouraging rehabilitation rather than chucking away the key. It makes me wonder whether he's easily influenced by a small range of views around him in each job, rather than having the clear ideological vision he's sometimes apparently credited with.
It might not be that he is influenced by different views in each job, and that he does not have a clear ideological vision. People rarely have entirely consistent ideological views, sometimes they can even passionately hold contradiictory ones.
True. I'm sure I do. I was just surprised to see him expose them, given what seemed quite a dogmatic streak at education.
Mr. M, I'll have you know I live very near an internet.
Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.
I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.
I suspect there are a lot of adults in the UK who wouldn't know what the cold war was either even though they lived through it.
The fault in any case is with an education system which ensures everyone knows about WWII and the Tudors, Romans and then that's it.
Surely young people are exposed to a far wider range of culture than ever before?
They watch cartoons from Japan, TV shows from America, play video games against people from all around the world... They are far more likely to have been abroad, met someone from a different religion etc...
That's the theory, in practice it's wider entertainment at best, and a narrower breadth of knowledge.
I used to talk with a much wider range of people on the internet in its early years than I do now. It's a much more focused experience in 2017, and I'm sure that's the case for most users.
After watching the wafflers and non-wafflers of the Labour and Tory leadership, the only regret the British people should truly have is that neither Sturgeon or the soon to be re-elected Robertson can ever (realistically, there are theories) become PM :-)
Mr. M, I'll have you know I live very near an internet.
Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.
I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.
I suspect there are a lot of adults in the UK who wouldn't know what the cold war was either even though they lived through it.
The fault in any case is with an education system which ensures everyone knows about WWII and the Tudors, Romans and then that's it.
God, yeah. Always grateful for my O Level (which shows how old it is) 20th Century History course which went from WW1 to Cuba and beyond, (I think)
The tories are at risk of looking tired. Even more so in the next parliment. They need to renew their domestic and public sector polices to find ways of getting teachers and doctors back on their side. Give people a reason to vote 'for' them, instead of against labour.
Otherwise they WILL lose to labour in the next election, even if they win ok this time (and I hope they do).
Indeed it has those agreements with countries around the world - negotiated on our behalf by the EU, and which will also need renegotiation after Brexit. We have a very deep and profitable integration with the EU that needs replacement with an almost certainly shallower and less profitable agreement. It will happen.
Sometimes the mind boggles as to how thick you are. Do you honestly believe that if we leave the EU with no deal that we won't be able to import medicine or flights will stop running? Are you actually that stupid or just being obtuse to try and make a ridiculous point?
The danger is that lots of countries realise we're under the gun to replace existing treaties, and use the opportunity to make changes that are not entirely to our advantage.
Which is why, as I've said a hundred times already, it is best to think of Brexit as a process, and not as a big bang 22 months away.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
TMay is not the most sparkling of leaders, and I agree she struggles with the riposte that others have had - but when we have had those leaders, they have been particularly poor at running the country.
So I will not be prejudiced against her because she's not a celeb, I will judge it on who is best to handle the next 4/5 years.
The Media have their own priorities and to make it more exciting they are exaggerating May's faults and smoothing Corbyn's toxic nature.
You're saying the media aren't biased against CORBYN ????????
Mr. M, I'll have you know I live very near an internet.
Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.
I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.
I suspect there are a lot of adults in the UK who wouldn't know what the cold war was either even though they lived through it.
The fault in any case is with an education system which ensures everyone knows about WWII and the Tudors, Romans and then that's it.
I believe Mr Corbyn informs us it was the noble fight of the oppressed soviets against the war mongering of imperial America and it's drone colonies in Europe.
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
TMay is not the most sparkling of leaders, and I agree she struggles with the riposte that others have had - but when we have had those leaders, they have been particularly poor at running the country.
So I will not be prejudiced against her because she's not a celeb, I will judge it on who is best to handle the next 4/5 years.
The Media have their own priorities and to make it more exciting they are exaggerating May's faults and smoothing Corbyn's toxic nature.
The idea that the best PM is someone who is photogenic and able to handle public speaking rather reduces the number of potential candidates for said job...
You wouldn't pick a project manager on his ability to handle a TV interview yet we do it for the PM.
Surely young people are exposed to a far wider range of culture than ever before?
They watch cartoons from Japan, TV shows from America, play video games against people from all around the world... They are far more likely to have been abroad, met someone from a different religion etc...
That's the theory, in practice it's wider entertainment at best, and a narrower breadth of knowledge.
I used to talk with a much wider range of people on the internet in its early years than I do now. It's a much more focused experience in 2017, and I'm sure that's the case for most users.
I'll see your cold war anecdote and raise you a spaghetti tree hoax:
Is it me, or are we suddenly getting quite a lot of YouGov polls, with their exciting new methodology?
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
The media is just totally pissed with "never give a straight answer" TMay. What she's showing is that she hasn't got the mental dexterity to deal with questions. At elections leaders get scrutinised & all TMay has got is platitudes.
TMay is not the most sparkling of leaders, and I agree she struggles with the riposte that others have had - but when we have had those leaders, they have been particularly poor at running the country.
So I will not be prejudiced against her because she's not a celeb, I will judge it on who is best to handle the next 4/5 years.
The Media have their own priorities and to make it more exciting they are exaggerating May's faults and smoothing Corbyn's toxic nature.
You're saying the media are biased against CORBYN ????????
Comments
I don't want a repeat of the tracker (was that 2010?) when they spammed the media and got vastly disproportionate coverage to other polls simply because they kept on churning them out.
ITV was less than good yesterday when they referred to narrowing polls (fair enough) but gave the impression things were far worse for May than the 3-15 point (or so) vast spread. The polls indicate anything from Con largest party but losing the majority to a landslide, but the impression given was far worse.
You really need to widen the circle of people you engage with, you appear to live in an echo chamber.
Then, at 10 and just like Bart Simpsons class president campaign, they'll turn to each other and realise none of them actually voted.
I'd have thought the true figure would be less than 20%, and probably nearer to 9% again.
And Corbyn would have offered £500m per week...
:-)
The Media have been lapping up Corbyn, and presenting him as far better than he is, over a number of issues.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/gummer-lined-up-for-brexit-secretary-in-victory-reshuffle-hq8c70qqf
Although young people are theoretically better educated and qualified than ever before, they have a less broad and deep cultural and general knowledge.
This is driven by the rise of the internet, and to a lesser extent multi-channel television and the decline of newspapers. In the old days due to the lack of choice you would either entertain yourself or end up watching, reading, and listening to a broad range of programming and opinions, in many cases about subjects that you might previously never have shown any interest in.
In 2017 a young person can spend all their time hyper-focused on a single interest, spend all their time communicating with similar like-minded people, and never (apart from a couple of hours a week at school) be exposed to differing views, or subjects they aren't interested in.
I wonder how many young people today watch the equivalents of Horizon, Arena, Everyman, Heart of the Matter, Q.E.D., Equinox, Panorama, World in Action and the like? I used to watch those programmes regularly when I was a kid, because THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE ON, and there was no internet. So I was exposed to all sorts of subjects and opinions that I would never come across in day-to-day life or in school.
A perfect example of this I read recently was a university lecturer teaching history, they had a student who was certainly bright but had never heard of the term "the Cold War". It had never come up in her education nor had she picked it up from the wider media.
Incidentally I'm not saying that older people are not getting sucked down the same rabbit hole, but they did at least get exposed to a wider culture when they were growing up.
"I've been going around the country talking to real people and they have been concerned that our NHS is being underfunded. Once we have left the EU we will support the NHS by a further 350 million pounds a week, as people believe they were promised during the Referendum. This will support one of our key institutions, but acheieving this will require a strong mandate from the British people so that I can stop sending money to Brussels."
Presently the Tory government has a slogan. "BREXIT Means BREXIT"
That's it .... Ooppps sorry .... they also have Liam Fox too.
What could possibly go wrong?
Quite glad I'm old enough to remember the world before mobile telephones and the internet being widespread.
Of course that's so ridiculous, there will be a deal. That's my point. It's the Blazing Saddles gambit People will laugh.
Won't shift votes though, it's like social care and the elderly. Might have some sit on their hands though.
Even though I dislike who must will vote fir, I hope the young vote is up this time.
(Not disagreeing with your central thrust, btw)
That would set another hare running ....
I know what they were trying to say, but as a white man on behalf of bame everywhere , it was poorly expressed.
As this in the internet, I clarify that was a joke.
And don't forget, the carpet seller has to feed his children, look after his elderly mother.... Of course there will be pressure to compromise. On both sides. Eventually. Just not as your stated position, up front.
They may of course ask a million pounds of their moth-eaten, flea-ridden rug. And we may say we will take it to the tip for them, for free. Then we haggle. It won't be a win-win. They are rare. But a sale is a sale. Pocket the money/take the carpet home. Each gets what they wanted - a deal. Start a new day.
Unless, to set out its stall for any future buyers, the EU does decide it wants to be known as The Carpet Seller Who Does Not Haggle. In which case, we shrug our shoulders, walk away and say "Your loss...."
The Deplorables know what to do.
Ed might have been crap, but I think most people could have lived with it, Corbyn will be an utter disaster with all he bring with him.
The internet was meant to bring about the global village, but I think there is plenty of evidence that it is just as capable of narrowing knowledge and experience, and hardening views.
It'd be racist, innit.
One of the problems with Gove is that he listened to civil servants in the DfE - who are incredibly arrogant but actually not very intelligent (I still fume about the memo I had from Wormald where I had to correct his SPaG) and who are very hostile to teachers and indeed education. We could do without these lowlifes who got the job because daddy had the right contacts and that would free up several million more for actual schools.
We could also get rid of OFQUAL or transfer it to the university sector. To call them a bunch of useless numpties would be a gross slander on useless numpties.
Finally, abolishing academy chains and making schools genuinely independent via, if you like, a voucher system would definitely improve matters.
Gove talked about much of this before delivering the opposite.
the Lib Dem decline...... it's because their leader is called Tim. It's a weak and wobbly name. It conjures up images of Herman, and the inescapable truth of being a choker and loser (however unfairly), especially when he was superceded by a man mountain like Murray.
I agree with Tim..... sounds like you're agreeing the best day out would be to the exhibition of garden sheds rather than the fun fair.
I've lost it. I know.
And my apologies to all the Tims out there. It's not your fault!
May would be better off if she got someone to read PB all day.
I struggle to reconcile his periods at Education and Justice. The latter seemed to be surprisingly progressive in comparison, in terms of encouraging rehabilitation rather than chucking away the key. It makes me wonder whether he's easily influenced by a small range of views around him in each job, rather than having the clear ideological vision he's sometimes apparently credited with.
http://m.cornwalllive.com/general-election-2017-cornwall-results-too-close-to-call-after-our-latest-shock-poll/story-30363616-detail/story.html
How fares the bed wetting?
They watch cartoons from Japan, TV shows from America, play video games against people from all around the world... They are far more likely to have been abroad, met someone from a different religion etc...
Mr. glw, yes but even PB diverges into wonderful tangents such as classical history, Formula 1, trains and so forth.
I felt I had been like someone who didn't realise other planets existed after finishing Norwich's three volume history on the Eastern Roman Empire. The idea of not knowing what the sodding Cold War was is baffling in its ignorance.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/jamieross/nicola-sturgeon-says-the-snp-would-help-jeremy-corbyn
TMay is not the most sparkling of leaders, and I agree she struggles with the riposte that others have had - but when we have had those leaders, they have been particularly poor at running the country.
So I will not be prejudiced against her because she's not a celeb, I will judge it on who is best to handle the next 4/5 years.
The Media have their own priorities and to make it more exciting they are exaggerating May's faults and smoothing Corbyn's toxic nature.
However the Conservatives will still romp home despite May's poor campaign. They opted for a ultra low risk strategy protecting the PM from as much scrutiny as they could get away with.
What the Tories hadn't factored for was that Jezza loves campaigning, even in lost causes. He's been doing it for decades. The contrast is stark :
Corbyn loves talking boll*cks and does so with conviction and passion. Headmistress May talks in soundbites and platitudes and can't wait for parents evening to finish.
Imagine trying to explain to young people that channels were off-air over night, or even mid-afternoon, and that we had just 4 or even less channels to choose from. Then explain that channels would schedule "boring" programmes in prime time, and you had to watch them because your parents wanted to watch them, and there was only one TV in the house.
Consider my tongue firmly in my cheek but ashamed of itself.
As punishment I pledge to change my name by deed poll to Cuthbert and stand for election in Glasgow NE.
WillS.
The fault in any case is with an education system which ensures everyone knows about WWII and the Tudors, Romans and then that's it.
I used to talk with a much wider range of people on the internet in its early years than I do now. It's a much more focused experience in 2017, and I'm sure that's the case for most users.
Otherwise they WILL lose to labour in the next election, even if they win ok this time (and I hope they do).
Which is why, as I've said a hundred times already, it is best to think of Brexit as a process, and not as a big bang 22 months away.
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You wouldn't pick a project manager on his ability to handle a TV interview yet we do it for the PM.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaghetti-tree_hoax