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  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SeanT said:


    Huge Labour surge is my prediction. Judging by those Sky Vox Pops.

    Even if it was exactly the same as the last ten Welsh polls, it would be given top billing on PB, for which ALL Welsh polls are box office smashes. There is just something about Celtic polling – particularly that from west of Offa's Dyke, that appeals to the typical PB psyche. I think it might be something to do with those Scottish subsample controversies back in the halcyon days, but I can't be sure.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Labour more likely to have most seats in Parliament than vote leave with one week to go.

    Labour now biggest odds of 7/1. Hills offering 11/2
    Leave was 10/1 with one week to go.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    SeanT said:

    Nah. We really and simply don't know. The attack ads could be shoring up a Tory vote share, that might otherwise be in the 30s by now.

    I agree, however, that the Tories need some big positive VOTE FOR US policies, now. Promise everyone £3000 and a box of emeralds. I don't care. Anything.
    Something akin to GO's inheritance tax thing in October 2007.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098

    The re-count.
    Vince Cable as the sole Lib Dem in the entire UK :p ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

    Perhaps the Tories should do something more positive.
    The Tories offer nothing positive at the moment. It's just a blend of safety-first wrt Brexit and project-fear wrt Corbyn.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Look at the trend! I know everyone says trends don't mean much, but they certainly did in Brexit. The movement went all one way, for weeks, and the previously unthinkable happened
    We need polls from the likes of ICM and ComRes who still had the Tories 10%+ ahead in their most recent surveys to see if this really is a trend.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

    Perhaps the Tories should do something more positive.
    I get the feeling most voters under 65+ do not care about the IRA thing.

    Elections are won on bread and butter issues, I'd have thought Tories of all people would get that.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Messina and the anothet Tory strategist posted tweets yesterday dismissing YouGov. Implies that what they are seeing doesn't tallying up with YouGov's results.
    So does that mean that the sensationalised reporting of the yougov in the Times *wasnt* a Tory plot to discourage complacency, or just that the strategist in question didn't get the memo? It's so hard to calibrate misinformation: how far do you push "we could lose this, so vote for us" before it becomes self-fulfilling and you're actually seen as losing?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    Jonathan said:

    How can she go on trust on an election she promised she would never call or to deliver a Brexit she still clearly doesn't believe in? Or for that matter her latest promise to reduce immigration.
    On Brexit, she leads a party committed to Brexit and everything she's said since June last year backs up that she accepts the result. Indeed, her pre-referendum speech was decidedly luke-warm about the EU. And she has experience in delivering in foreign relations, with Abu Qatada's deportation.

    As for not calling the election, that's a non-issue even by the standards of this campaign, not least because Labour themselves voted for it.

    The Trust question comes down to not just which side would run an effective government but how badly the other would fail and what would be risked by their election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353

    BrExit wasnt FPTP.
    No, but we would rather not it be so close only the vagaries of FPTP will damage labour enough that Corbyn will go.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    RobD said:

    Down 2, if you are looking at the averages.
    Is that all thanks its a breeze really isnt it?

    TM performance is this bad and only down 2 amazing but true.

    I predicted 43/34 at the start

    Any PB Tory prepared to take that as the outcome yet.

    I am getting giddy and think it could now be 43/35

    TMICIPM 60 Maj
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    I remember when Kinnock had a 7pt poll lead over Major.

    The Tories are still going to win and probably win big.

    And of course let's not forget most of the polls are showing the blues up from 38% to around 44%. That's a significant increase in support which points to a good result for them even if Labour are up as well.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017
    rkrkrk said:

    But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly.
    So it's swings and roundabouts really...

    (Privately some of my London Tory friends have told me they wished Miliband had won because of Brexit. What will they say if they end up with Corbyn!?)
    "But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly."
    Breakfast means Breakfast.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Apart from the fact you have to pay tax on the rental income. ooops.
    De minimis

    A leasehold is *not the same* as a lease.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    Pulpstar said:

    BUT Nick Timothy wanted his place in history

    What a complete twat.
    He has his place. If he is not history by June 9, Theresa May will do well to see Christmas in No 10.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

    The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?
    It's the Cleggasm again. Remember when Clegg and co were briefly in the lead in 2010? They ended up losing seats.

    The Conservative party works like a slow dead hand that patiently throttles its opponent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252

    The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.
    And what proportion of votes have already been cast under these handy enough leads? For Labour to overcome that, they really need to be getting on level terms by next Thursday....
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    chrisb said:

    The transcript of that interview which has been doing the rounds has been edited down so it's incredibly misleading. Watch the accompanying video and her answers are actually much lengthier.
    But no more illuminating.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    Polruan said:

    So does that mean that the sensationalised reporting of the yougov in the Times *wasnt* a Tory plot to discourage complacency, or just that the strategist in question didn't get the memo? It's so hard to calibrate misinformation: how far do you push "we could lose this, so vote for us" before it becomes self-fulfilling and you're actually seen as losing?
    Indeed.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079
    Tories still on course for a comfortable victory. They deserve to get hammered but they will prevail sadly.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's a statement of the bleedin' obvious, but the line that 'no deal is a bad deal' is a tautology just as 'a bad deal is worse than no deal' is. It's equally bleedin' obvious that 'no deal is a bad deal' applies to the EU27 as well as to us.

    One thing the PM has unquestionably got right is her position on this. She wants a good deal, and she's made it very clear what kind of deal she wants. It completely baffles me that anyone thinks that this is a weak point; it's her strongest point, and makes perfect sense. The risks don't lie with the UK's position, but with the EU27's.

    I wish I was more surprised that you are still peddling this nonsense

    Britain, by its own lights, has built its prosperity on a role as a great trading nation. Yet by 2019 it will be the only significant European economy sitting outside all three of the continent’s trading blocs — the European Economic Area, the European Free Trade Area as well as the EU. This really does not make sense.

    For her part, Mrs May is fighting an election to prove such naysayers wrong. When the prime minister called the June 8 poll she said she needed a fresh mandate to negotiate Brexit. The constant refrain since of a lacklustre and shaky Conservative campaign has been that Mrs May alone offers the “strong and stable” leadership needed to strike a deal with the EU27. She would “get Brexit right”, “make a success of Brexit”, get “the best deal”. Take your pick.

    Election campaigns, with their tendency to elevate obfuscation over argument and slogan above fact, are often dispiriting. None, I can recall, more than this one. Brexit is the most consequential political and economic choice the nation has faced since 1945. Yet beyond the glib promises to be a tough negotiator, Mrs May refuses to talk about life outside the EU.


    https://www.ft.com/content/5c4e3720-45ed-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    Any word on how many more views the Corbyn IRA ad has had? I'm sure that's the really important number this afternoon.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    I get the feeling most voters under 65+ do not care about the IRA thing.

    Elections are won on bread and butter issues, I'd have thought Tories of all people would get that.
    Do the under 65's care about the Islamist terrorists?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    SeanT said:

    That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

    The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?
    Incredible it's so big though. Remember the locals? Why such a big public shifT? No policy or politician is so great or so crap as to explain that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545
    Corbyn could be on course to beat one symbolic target - the biggest post-Iraq vote share for the Labour party, eclipsing Blair's 2005 total of 35.2%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972

    He has his place. If he is not history by June 9, Theresa May will do well to see Christmas in No 10.
    The man who kept Corbyn in place? Seems a tad unfair.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Many thanks for the heads-up on this - I actually succeeded in getting on with Marathon Bet at even better odds of 11/4, following which they immediately chopped the odds back to 6/4!
    2/1 now
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I have disbelieved the last two on the Beeb at 22:01. I might as well have gone to bed because the exit polls called it well enough.

    The last one in 2015 stated 316 Tory seats as I recall with Labour about 240 when everyone was expecting a far, far closer result, perhaps even a Labour minority govt.
    Flashback worse than Tunisia stop it
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017
    chrisb said:

    The transcript of that interview which has been doing the rounds has been edited down so it's incredibly misleading. Watch the accompanying video and her answers are actually much lengthier.

    I've watched it now (here). Her answers are indeed a lot lengthier and she's not as out of it as the edited transcript makes her sound, but what she said didn't have much more in the way of content.

    On other occasions - e.g. in her "nuke 'em" speech in the Commons and last night trying to defend her absence from the debate in Cambridge - when she answers a question "yes" or "no" she does it in such a crazy-looking way as if to say "You didn't expect me to say 'yes' or 'no', did you? Well, I just did. That's how unusually clever and remarkable a personality I've got". But in Plymouth, the reporter received no direct answers at all.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Charles said:

    Leaseholds are peppercorn - effectively the rent is in the purchase price. You are transferring less value to your children but leaving yourself with a wasting asset (and their side of the equation accreting with each passing year)
    If you start mucking around with exchanges of leases and multiple cross-transfers of interests you need a decent lawyer and tax adviser, or the SDLT gets expensive very quickly indeed, particularly with the 3% additional charge (safe to assume most people with the wealth to play this game will have an existing property).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Unless there's a premium the two are going to be the same.
    No - you are just gifting something of lower value (an encumbered freehold vs a house with vacant occupancy)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Any word on how many more views the Corbyn IRA ad has had? I'm sure that's the really important number this afternoon.

    Numbers are not important...

    How many fingers?

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/870256851140718593
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Polruan said:

    So does that mean that the sensationalised reporting of the yougov in the Times *wasnt* a Tory plot to discourage complacency, or just that the strategist in question didn't get the memo? It's so hard to calibrate misinformation: how far do you push "we could lose this, so vote for us" before it becomes self-fulfilling and you're actually seen as losing?
    Have no idea.

    Personally, I think the conversations on here today in relation to YouGov polling giving newspapers a 'story' is the key more than anything. In an election which looked to be a walkover, newspapers will grab at anything to create a more exciting narrative that will actually get hits on their site/sell papers.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SeanT said:

    That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

    The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?
    Indyref.

    However, with indyref, even though they lost on the day, the losing side's supporters didn't lose their zeal afterwards, and they still look even now with a fighting chance when (if) the next time they get put on the ballot paper.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Looking at the You Gov effect.

    If you remove all You Gov polls then Labour has stalled out at and average of 34% over the last 15 polls or so.

    With YouGov in the Lab 10 poll average is 36% and rising.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    edited June 2017

    Corbyn could be on course to beat one symbolic target - the biggest post-Iraq vote share for the Labour party, eclipsing Blair's 2005 total of 35.2%.

    A possibility with the lds doing so poorly, to be sure.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    I received a leaflet this morning from that nice Mr Afriyie, my first of the campaign. Is he worried?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Any word on how many more views the Corbyn IRA ad has had? I'm sure that's the really important number this afternoon.

    6 million

    Mostly from Lab supporters trying to blow the Tory Ads budget
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Alistair said:

    Looking at the You Gov effect.

    If you remove all You Gov polls then Labour has stalled out at and average of 34% over the last 15 polls or so.

    With YouGov in the Lab 10 poll average is 36% and rising.

    And Tories pretty similar at 44ish?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    SeanT said:

    A smart friend of mine is panicking in central London. She says a Corbyn win or Corbyn-led govt would kill her husband's business stone dead.

    However, she has modestly better news on the polling. A friend of hers in politics (she is very well connected) says that certain pollsters believe their own results are skewed too much to the young who won't vote.

    Huge caveat emptor, of course.

    The Conservatives' average vote share has been on 44% for about a week now.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Corbyn could be on course to beat one symbolic target - the biggest post-Iraq vote share for the Labour party, eclipsing Blair's 2005 total of 35.2%.

    If it's a super-high turnout, he could even beat Blair 2001 in terms of raw number of votes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCVickiYoung: Corbyn says he doesn't do personal attacks but no-one on his #Brexit team fibbed about spending £350m a week on NHS #ge2017
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,150
    Celebrity endorsement - Frank Bruno is campaigning with Norman Lamb today. It's the mental health connection.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Nor surprised by that poll.

    48% was already too high a poll score for the Tories - in that sense, Panelbase is moving into line with other pollsters who show the Tory vote share to be about 42% - 44%. The 36% Labour share also reflects the polling average of Labour in mid-thirties.

    Because the previous poll was oddly quite old, it's seen some dramatic movements - but ones which basically reflect the overall trend of a declining Tory lead but the Tories still on course for a majority.

    8% lead = reflects the average Tory lead in the polls of about 8% - 9%.

    @bobajobPB So would a LVT tax just look at the value of a garden or the property as a whole? I am pretty worried about this.

    Labour are retaining the property tax (CT) aren't they? I assume this LVT is for undeveloped land.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    I received a leaflet this morning from that nice Mr Afriyie, my first of the campaign. Is he worried?

    QTWTAIN
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Jonathan said:

    It's the Cleggasm again. Remember when Clegg and co were briefly in the lead in 2010? They ended up losing seats.

    The Conservative party works like a slow dead hand that patiently throttles its opponent.
    I remember that. I was so shocked when the exit poll came in showing them losing seats.

    I truly thought back then that the LD surge was real.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 738
    IanB2 said:

    The question as to who turns out and who doesn't is at least finally resolved!

    They do however ignore the postal vote. The model used for the BBC poll simply assumes PVs fall in proportion to the polling station votes - which to be fair nowadays isn't as poor an assumption as once it would have been, back in the day when they were mostly oldies.

    But it's a potential source of error nevertheless.
    The exit poll uses change in party performance since last time (except for a few new polling stations), so they assume such changes are roughly consistent between postal and on-the-day votes, not actual vote shares. A reasonable assumption.

    In 2005 there was a vast increase in PV so they made an adjustment based on MORI polling of PVers.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Polruan said:

    If you start mucking around with exchanges of leases and multiple cross-transfers of interests you need a decent lawyer and tax adviser, or the SDLT gets expensive very quickly indeed, particularly with the 3% additional charge (safe to assume most people with the wealth to play this game will have an existing property).
    Leaseback relief should be available (this is not tax advice)
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

    The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?
    The only emotional reflexing going on is here on PB. How you can divine the above from the box tickings of a few self-selecting political anoraks that are engaged enough to complete online opinion polls I dont know. Its just as likely there is going to be another polling disaster, the latest of many.

    Mrs May is targeting people like my old Mum, a provincial voter, who doesnt do social media, barely watches the news because its too depressing (read, out of step with here rural values), isnt particularly politically active, but loves Mrs May. She will be down the polling booth like a shot when they open to put a cross in the blue box. Mrs Indigo(Snr) has never completed an online opinion poll, and neither have any of here similarly disposed neighbours.

    Meanwhile rather than just hyperventilating "because BrExit", do we have any actual evidence that any more 18-24 voters will manage to find their way to the polling booths than has previously been the case ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,242
    Danny565 said:

    Indyref.

    However, with indyref, even though they lost on the day, the losing side's supporters didn't lose their zeal afterwards, and they still look even now with a fighting chance when (if) the next time they get put on the ballot paper.
    That's fine. The next time will be in five years and it will be a whole new political landscape by then.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That assumes a substantial premium though. The kids may as well buy the freehold outright in that case.
    Who's paying who? (I'm not a tax adviser so genuinely interested if my idea doesn't work!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098

    Corbyn could be on course to beat one symbolic target - the biggest post-Iraq vote share for the Labour party, eclipsing Blair's 2005 total of 35.2%.

    He probably won't win this time, but he's started something. You can smell it in the air. Jez ready to take power after the clusterfuck of the Tory 2019 Brexit.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    SeanT said:

    They really aren't. The Tory lead is collapsing, and the collapse is ongoing. If the trend continues, and it has continued now for two weeks, TMay will lose her majority.

    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the trend.
  • EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55

    Flashback worse than Tunisia stop it
    Honey, I'm Home!

    Tick, Tock!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Pong said:

    Look at the trend.
    In the share? Pretty steady.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    There's no such thing as no deal. Brave.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017

    The only emotional reflexing going on is here on PB. How you can divine the above from the box tickings of a few self-selecting political anoraks that are engaged enough to complete online opinion polls I dont know. Its just as likely there is going to be another polling disaster, the latest of many.

    Mrs May is targeting people like my old Mum, a provincial voter, who doesnt do social media, barely watches the news because its too depressing (read, out of step with here rural values), isnt particularly politically active, but loves Mrs May. She will be down the polling booth like a shot when they open to put a cross in the blue box. Mrs Indigo(Snr) has never completed an online opinion poll, and neither have any of here similarly disposed neighbours.

    Meanwhile rather than just hyperventilating "because BrExit", do we have any actual evidence that any more 18-24 voters will manage to find their way to the polling booths than has previously been the case ?
    In other words "the opinion polls are wrong".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2017
    @BBCVickiYoung: Businesses need tariff free access to European single market says Labour leader. No such thing as no deal. #GE2017

    @BBCVickiYoung: "No deal is in fact a bad deal" says Corbyn #GE2017
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545

    Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.

    The EU's already put a detailed proposal on the table so if he's agreeing to that, it already is reciprocal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Corbyn: MAy says no deal I better than a bad deal - let's be clear it's the worst deal, an economic disaster for jobs
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sounds like it's not all bad polling news for the Conservatives today:

    https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/870277399409303552

    This in response to:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870275279629037568
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Messina and the anothet Tory strategist posted tweets yesterday dismissing YouGov. Implies that what they are seeing doesn't tallying up with YouGov's results.
    To be fair Andrew Cooper said much the same thing about polls showing a Leave win in the EU ref.

    Where is Andrew Cooper btw?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    He's just halted the surge. Rules out no deal. Says no deal is the worst possible deal. Will sign anything therefore. EU laughing like a drain.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives' average vote share has been on 44% for about a week now.
    Only 1 of the last 8 polls has had the Tories above 44. 1 on 44 and the other 6 below 44.

    Of course, there is a YouGov effect there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    The EU's already put a detailed proposal on the table so if he's agreeing to that, it already is reciprocal.
    I thought we couldn't pick and choose? :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    This election must be hysterical viewing from across the Channel.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Pulpstar said:

    He probably won't win this time, but he's started something. You can smell it in the air. Jez ready to take power after the clusterfuck of the Tory 2019 Brexit.

    Age maybe a problem then? Will be 73 in 2022.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Having been involved in a few Labour victories and defeats. This is not what like victory felt like before. Even in 2005, when the party got 35% Labour at this stage it was almost certainly in the bag.

    2015 felt like 1992 with no-one quite looking you in the eye. This one is just weird.

    IMO for Labour to win, they have to have virtually everything going for them. And even then it can be quite close.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    bobajobPB said:

    Labour are retaining the property tax (CT) aren't they? I assume this LVT is for undeveloped land.
    I thought the LVT was something they were looking to potentially replace the CT with?

    We will initiate a review into
    reforming council tax and business
    rates and consider new options
    such as a land value tax, to ensure
    local government has sustainable
    funding for the long term.


    This is a bit ambiguous about that. So they want you to pay CT and for your garden as well? So if gardens are low value I'm wondering how much that would add on to CT, then again I'm wondering how they will reform CT in the first place.

    In the case this comes to pass, I'd hope Labour MPs wouldn't allow them to do anything stupid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Sounds like it's not all bad polling news for the Conservatives today:

    https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/870277399409303552

    This in response to:

    twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870275279629037568

    Klaxons on standby? :o
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859

    Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.

    And correct to do so.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Yes the Conservative vote share is falling , Labour vote share is rising .
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.


    He really does hate us.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    And correct to do so.
    Morally perhaps, electorally nope
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Pong said:

    Look at the trend.
    The trend in the share is pretty flat, it's stabilised at around 44%.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    And Tories pretty similar at 44ish?
    Yes, If you remove YouGov then the Tories have a very gentle fall over the last pollset but rounable to 44%.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017

    I remember that. I was so shocked when the exit poll came in showing them losing seats.

    I truly thought back then that the LD surge was real.
    The LibDem percentage did increase slightly, but they lost seats because of FPTP, bad luck or bad targeting.
    I suppose that if the polls tell you that you're doing well you can end up spreading your resources too thin and getting too ambitious. Does that sound familiar?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    Has Corbyn done any REALLY big rallies this time round ?

    In the right places he could get alot of youngsters to turn out I think.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

    What sort of fucked up country do we live in if exposing the leader of the opposition as a terrorist sympathiser makes him MORE POPULAR?

    I am lost for words. And not a little scared
  • Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    Look at the share not the lead.
    It's down from consistently high 40s to consistently low 40s. Now it's true Corbyn has also picked up at the expense of UKIP, Greens and Lib Dems. But, looking at the share, it simply isn't true that May has been serenely sailing along while Labour hoovers up the rest - not by a long chalk.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    Theory. May doesn't care about the Labour surge, she thinks it won't turn out and it shores up her support to stop Jezza. She's playing a 45 to 47 strategy and knows if they turn out she's home and hosed. If the surge fades a little (2 percent or 3 maybe) and the polls are on the mean side for the blues as usual by a percent or so she's over the line. Everything she says or does for the next week is about making sure Brexiteers, kippers and the blue rinsers vote and vote blue.

    I agree. But it's taking some stern stuff to keep believing it.

    I'm comforted though by memories of the 2015 campaign and how the social media and, to a large degree, air war wqs won by Labour who also trumpeted their ground game and 4 million conversations. But unseen the Tory ground game and marginal seat efforts were clinically effective.

    I hope Crosby is as devastating this time, unseen. Currently I'm fearing for my NE Wales blue bets...

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pong said:

    Look at the trend.
    You can fit a beautiful (currently falling) polynominal curve to the Tory vote share
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098

    What sort of fucked up country do we live in if exposing the leader of the opposition as a terrorist sympathiser makes him MORE POPULAR?

    I am lost for words. And not a little scared
    Perhaps the relentless shitstorm thrown at Ed Miliband has made anyone on the centre or left think "Meh, just the right wing press throwing muck again".

    Just a thought.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    Alistair said:

    Only 1 of the last 8 polls has had the Tories above 44. 1 on 44 and the other 6 below 44.

    Of course, there is a YouGov effect there.
    I tend to look at the most recent from each company, to avoid duplication by companies like Yougov.

    So, Yougov 42%, Kantar 43%, Survation 43% (equivalent to 44% excluding Northern Ireland), Panelbase 44%, Survey Monkey 44%, ORB 44%, ICM 45%, Opinium 45%, Com Res 46%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    It's down from consistently high 40s to consistently low 40s. Now it's true Corbyn has also picked up at the expense of UKIP, Greens and Lib Dems. But, looking at the share, it simply isn't true that May has been serenely sailing along while Labour hoovers up the rest - not by a long chalk.
    The bump the Tories received after the calling of the election has disappeared, but they are still up one relative to where they were ante bellum.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,806
    llef said:

    welsh opinion poll out around 4pm and according to Roger Scully...

    Prof Roger Scully Retweeted SharpendITV
    And it's an interesting one!

    It's YouGov so it'll be terrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiibbbbbbllllleeeeee for the Tories...
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017

    In other words "the opinion polls are wrong".
    I think that is what I said in the third line of my post.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited June 2017
    Corbyn sounding very statesman like and parking his tanks on the Tory lawn - I must admit I'm surprised at how well Corbyn is doing - no doubt tomorrow he'll be taking TM to task on Grammar Schools !!

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/870278997623451648
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    GIN1138 said:

    It's YouGov so it'll be terrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiibbbbbbllllleeeeee for the Tories...
    If it's not, do we praise YouGov.. but then we have to believe their national figures... argh.. *head explodes*
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The EU's already put a detailed proposal on the table so if he's agreeing to that, it already is reciprocal.
    It showsgreat goodwill, and is inevitable.

    A simple opening gambit to win the trust of the EU and move onto other more critical matters.

    If only the Tories were as astute.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    6 million

    Mostly from Lab supporters trying to blow the Tory Ads budget
    Via Guido

    Donations from the last week via the Electoral Commission:


    Tories: £3,772,550

    Labour: £331,499

    LibDems: £310,500

    Women’s Equality Party: £71,552

    UKIP: £16,300

    Greens: £9,366
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    The LibDem percentage did increase slightly, but they lost seats because of FPTP, bad luck or bad targeting.
    I suppose that if the polls tell you that you're doing well you can end up spreading your resources too thin and getting too ambitious. Does that sound familiar?
    True, but a small percentage increase isn't really a surge.

    As for your latter point....yes, it does it sound very familiar....
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    @bobajobPB So would a LVT tax just look at the value of a garden or the property as a whole? I am pretty worried about this.

    It would most probably look at the value of the land on which the property sits, part of which is related to the fact that planning consent exists for the house, but not at the value of the house actually built.

    Gardens are (best guess I can find) worth on average about £40 a square foot, so not a huge addition to the value of the house - and indeed may be double counting since the price you quote for buying the house includes buying the garden with it.

    The main objective would be to reverse the current stupid situation where you pay more tax if you build a house than you pay if you sit on a planning permission and wait for prices to go up. Personally I think the quick win is just to apply business rates to plan-allocated land, and council tax to unbuilt permissions, but there we go.

    Arguably there's an issue with bungalows, since they're an "inefficient" use of land and the land value / house price ratio will be different (if, hypothetically, the local council would be minded to grant permission to knock them down and build a house), but I doubt that's unfixable.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    Scott_P said:

    Numbers are not important...

    How many fingers?

    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/870256851140718593
    At least we know one of your lot is familiar with numbers, though how accurate they are is another matter.

    "He claimed his was seven to eight inches long with a ‘medium to thick girth’"


  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Charles said:

    Who's paying who? (I'm not a tax adviser so genuinely interested if my idea doesn't work!)
    Assuming you're talking about a capital asset (a long leasehold interest) then there's a deemed market value transfer for a transaction between connected parties so doesn't matter who pays what to whom. It gets muddier when you look at exchanges of part-shares of land interests, grants of new leases and so on, so even assuming MV is not necessarily correct in this case.

    This is thinking about it in IHT/CGT terms though, it's not safe to assume that care cost assessments would follow the principles of either of those taxes.

    Feel free to send me a DM (vanilla does that, I assume?) if you'd like a bit more detail on the tax side.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353

    In other words "the opinion polls are wrong".
    I hope so. I do think more young people will turn out this time, but it's not a huge cohort, and the elderly are mostly steady for con. Depends on how much the middle age love Corbyn.
This discussion has been closed.