I think Corbyn has lost the ukippers who were ruturning to Labour over the last few days with his promise of soft Brexit and guaranteeing rights of E.U nationals before U.K ones are too.
They do not care about free tuition fees because frankly ukippers don't/wont go to uni on the whole.
So question is will the ukippers who swithched to labour in the last few days including in ICM swithch back to ukip, stay with lab (unlikely imo) or switch to May?
The Hard Left certainly know the trick of saying whatever it takes to get into power, and then doing whatever they like afterwards.
Let's hope it's not enough for them to win though.
Is that better or worse than Team Theresa's approach of not even pretending to tell us what she'll do when she wins power, and asking for a mandate to do whatever she thinks is best for the next five years?
Really? There was me thinking there was a manifesto.
Well exactly. Is it a good one? Opinions will differ, but it is there.
Thank you for that link - its made me feel a bit better!
Sounds like most places which have this LVT don't set it anywhere near close to 100% so I don't think Labour, especially a Labour minority government could do that. Not in the least as it would be a fortune for everyone - homeowners and renters!
Also in the other countries where they have it, it's not applied to everyone either, so perhaps that would be the case here.
No problem.
I would be very wary about believing anything papers like the Sun and Express are writing about this - they're just trying to scare people IMO.
The Labour manifesto just says they will consider it - they certainly haven't decided on a rate yet or how it would work in practice.
The Labour Land Campaign proposed a 3% rate on the value of the land (note not the whole property value).
Labour rule out coalition. If minority will put forward QS and up to the rest to vote it down. Wow.
That implies we'll almost certainly be back at the polls for another bloody election in the Autumn or, at the latest, next Spring...
Think of the effect on Brexit negotiations if we keep changing govts every six months.
Does someone, somewhere, have a cunning plan?
The EU must be pissing themselves laughing at us.
At the very least they must be wondering WTF is going on over here. It should be quite clear that the UK is very unsettled, but as to how it will all play out... who knows?
"I pictured Nicholas Parsons in the chair: "The next topic is how Plymouth will be affected by Brexit, military cuts and transport meltdown. Theresa, you have three minutes to talk without clarity, candour or transparency. Your time starts now."
The right-wing press have vilified so many people who are even moderately centre-left that they've created a situation where when you genuinely do have a dodgy guy leading Labour, many simply don't believe them.
And LOL at that Farage story. To think he was so keen to associate himself with Trump as well
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Labour rule out coalition. If minority will put forward QS and up to the rest to vote it down. Wow.
That implies we'll almost certainly be back at the polls for another bloody election in the Autumn or, at the latest, next Spring...
Think of the effect on Brexit negotiations if we keep changing govts every six months.
Does someone, somewhere, have a cunning plan?
The EU must be pissing themselves laughing at us.
At the very least they must be wondering WTF is going on over here. It should be quite clear that the UK is very unsettled, but as to how it will all play out... who knows?
I don't think we're unsettled. We don't like the EU much (or at all) but we want alot of jam paid for by other people. The problem is that it isn't entirely clear which party most closely supports this generalised view of life.
The Hard Left certainly know the trick of saying whatever it takes to get into power, and then doing whatever they like afterwards.
Let's hope it's not enough for them to win though.
Is that better or worse than Team Theresa's approach of not even pretending to tell us what she'll do when she wins power, and asking for a mandate to do whatever she thinks is best for the next five years?
Really? There was me thinking there was a manifesto.
My understanding of the manifesto is that the few clear commitments it made could be replaced by an open-ended consultation that could "clarify" their meanings to be the opposite of the original commitment. Along with gems like "we won't commit not to raise taxes but we've been clear that our instinct is towards lower taxes" do seem to be preparing the ground for "doing whatever they like afterwards".
I think Corbyn has lost the ukippers who were ruturning to Labour over the last few days with his promise of soft Brexit and guaranteeing rights of E.U nationals before U.K ones are too.
They do not care about free tuition fees because frankly ukippers don't/wont go to uni on the whole.
So question is will the ukippers who swithched to labour in the last few days including in ICM swithch back to ukip, stay with lab (unlikely imo) or switch to May?
Quite a lot of working-class people like the idea of going to university later in life (for which, incidentally, no tuition fees is a particular bonus, because student loans are very hard to get for mature students meaning fees often have to be paid upfront), and of course many of them will have kids who they hope to go to uni.
In any case, I don't think tuition fees is the only driver of UKIP->Lab switchers; I think it's more the general sense of "FFS, make something change already!!!".
The right-wing press have vilified so many people who are even moderately centre-left that they've created a situation where when you genuinely do have a dodgy guy leading Labour, many simply don't believe them.
And LOL at that Farage story. To think he was so keen to associate himself with Trump as well
The right-wing press have vilified so many people who are even moderately centre-left that they've created a situation where when you genuinely do have a dodgy guy leading Labour, many simply don't believe them.
And LOL at that Farage story. To think he was so keen to associate himself with Trump as well
The boy who cried wolf.
You can chuck in the scare stories about Brexit too (what recession?).
Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.
The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.
The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.
They really aren't. The Tory lead is collapsing, and the collapse is ongoing. If the trend continues, and it has continued now for two weeks, TMay will lose her majority.
Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead.
Yes the Conservative vote share is falling , Labour vote share is rising .
And Farron is fighting to hold his seat - looks like you might be next up for leader - it really might be that bad.
Nah, the LibDems will still have the Liar of Orkney to lead them.....
I haven't commented much to date largely as I have been in Vancouver but it does look like Theresa has lost her confidence and is struggling. Watching Corbyn just now he is full of confidence and much improved.
I do think that the majority is at risk and that we are entering a terrible time of economic and political uncertainty. If UKIP do not turn out in force for TM next week I think we will end up with a soft Brexit and lots of angst.
If Corbyn gets anywhere near a budget all hell will break lose on the markets and I do not think he has any hope of putting in place all his goodies and in a year or two we will see the IMF back in again.
Very sorry tale really and of course if TM does not achieve a majority she will stand down.
I am very concerned for UKPLC but we are where we are
The right-wing press have vilified so many people who are even moderately centre-left that they've created a situation where when you genuinely do have a dodgy guy leading Labour, many simply don't believe them.
And LOL at that Farage story. To think he was so keen to associate himself with Trump as well
Can I just say that is exactly what the left did to anyone who dared speak about immigration in the negative. So when Farage/Trump came along and said they were racist, nobody believed them.
"A Brexit deal for a bright future." Huh? All that thinking about Brexit Theresa May did last night has clearly paid off, instead of "swapping soundbites" (!) with Corbyn et al at the debate. An improvement on "no deal is better than a bad deal", I guess.
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
The right-wing press have vilified so many people who are even moderately centre-left that they've created a situation where when you genuinely do have a dodgy guy leading Labour, many simply don't believe them.
And LOL at that Farage story. To think he was so keen to associate himself with Trump as well
Can I just say that is exactly what the left did to anyone who dared speak about immigration in the negative. So when Farage/Trump came along and said they were racist, nobody believed them.
The lesson: we need to learn to all engage with one another and try to consider many POVs.
You can chuck in the scare stories about Brexit too (what recession?).
Sterling’s Brexit-fuelled decline over the past year has been Britain’s “least successful” currency devaluation in history, an analysis of the latest growth figures has revealed.
The UK’s trade balance has worsened by 1.8% of GDP since the final quarter of 2015 — before worries over the EU referendum began to hurt the pound. Rising exports have been outstripped by an even faster rise in imports, according to Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.
The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.
The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.
They really aren't. The Tory lead is collapsing, and the collapse is ongoing. If the trend continues, and it has continued now for two weeks, TMay will lose her majority.
Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead.
Yes the Conservative vote share is falling , Labour vote share is rising .
And Farron is fighting to hold his seat - looks like you might be next up for leader - it really might be that bad.
Nah, the LibDems will still have the Liar of Orkney to lead them.....
Net gains for LD nailed on now. The Tories have blown it. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
I think Corbyn has lost the ukippers who were ruturning to Labour over the last few days with his promise of soft Brexit and guaranteeing rights of E.U nationals before U.K ones are too.
They do not care about free tuition fees because frankly ukippers don't/wont go to uni on the whole.
So question is will the ukippers who swithched to labour in the last few days including in ICM swithch back to ukip, stay with lab (unlikely imo) or switch to May?
Quite a lot of working-class people like the idea of going to university later in life (for which, incidentally, no tuition fees is a particular bonus, because student loans are very hard to get for mature students meaning fees often have to be paid upfront), and of course many of them will have kids who they hope to go to uni.
In any case, I don't think tuition fees is the only driver of UKIP->Lab switchers; I think it's more the general sense of "FFS, make something change already!!!".
Well they'll certainly get change with Corbyn, whether they'll like that change is another matter.
But yes I think that the strategy being deployed by the Conservatives suggests they are aware that some Kippers are not fully on board with the Theresa May party.
A family friend who always absolutely adored Tony Benn voted for UKIP in the European elections in 2014 (though she decided they were "racist" shortly afterwards and had gone back to Labour already by 2015).
The commentariat's understanding of UKIP voters/sympathisers has lways been very simplistic.
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
In which case they really will be disappointed. Dan Hannan's vision is sustainable. Corbyn's is not. They might as well be voting for the repeal of gravity.
I haven't commented much to date largely as I have been in Vancouver but it does look like Theresa has lost her confidence and is struggling. Watching Corbyn just now he is full of confidence and much improved.
I do think that the majority is at risk and that we are entering a terrible time of economic and political uncertainty. If UKIP do not turn out in force for TM next week I think we will end up with a soft Brexit and lots of angst.
If Corbyn gets anywhere near a budget all hell will break lose on the markets and I do not think he has any hope of putting in place all his goodies and in a year or two we will see the IMF back in again.
Very sorry tale really and of course if TM does not achieve a majority she will stand down.
I am very concerned for UKPLC but we are where we are
We won't see the IMF in, but we'll see more and more taxes on high and middle class earners and business. Labour will struggle to raise money to spend for their sweeties and the deficit will grow again meaning higher interest rates and more inflation.
Clear as mud. It seems to me that the much vaunted contention on here that the 650 seat system unduly favours Labour was rubbish, as I suggested at the time, much to the chagrin of the PB Tories. FPP is inherently unfair – which party it favours blows in the psephological wind, as your post above illustrates perfectly.
I really don't see what you find so hard to understand. Voters in some traditional Labour-voting areas (especially Wales and the NE) get more than their fair share of MPs on the current boundaries. That is all there is to it. What could possibly be difficult to understand about that?
Not sure where this Corbyn confident talk comes from. This week we've seen an underwhelming debate peformance and a car crash on women's hour. Both him and May do seem tired, which is perhaps to be expected given their ages, the brutal campaign and the terror attack.
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
Imagine how poor Dan Hannan would feel if Labour actually won. Brexit would have brought about a Corbyn premiership which would bring about a hard-Left Brexit, and it would all be Hannan's fault.
No. For every square foot of your garden you'd pay whatever the LVT rate was. Generally I think it's mooted at about 1%. So for every square foot of your garden you'd pay 40p (if and only if the value of your garden wasn't already counted in the 'land' proportion of the value of your house).
My best estimate based on the 1% rule and taking a mid-point of the 33-50% range for land vs house prices, LVT would cost just over £1k for every £250k of house price. Since house prices include gardens already I'm not sure we need to obsess about it.
Just don't apply for planning permission to turn your detached double garage into a small block of flats if you're not intending to go through with it.
It's a good way of forcing development. Would affect companies that have traditionally held large land banks without intending to develop them.
At 1%, the LVT on agricultural land would be in excess of typical market rents: interesting how that would be squared.
What does it do to supermarkets and utilities companies with massive land holdings ? Force up food and utility prices I assume ?
Depends what those landholdings are worth, and whether if they aren't being used productively, they can be sold to someone who will use them productively.
I'm not entirely clear why utility companies have massive land holdings (or rather I'm not clear what the basis for viewing that land as particularly valuable in cash terms is).
Farmland yields rather depend on separating out agricultural value elements of the sale price from 'ooh this might get planning permission in a decade or so' elements of the sale price.
Ms. Apocalypse, quite, but a problem is the increasing prevalence of online echo chambers and some people foolishly wrapping morality into mainstream politics. Then, voting becomes not a matter of judgement, but a matter of being a good person or an immoral one. Supporters of Another Party aren't just people with a different view, they're heretics.
Sod all. All poll rampers should be forcibly sent to a dinner party on the Isle of Man with Lynton Crosby, Paul Dacre, no women, no booze. Outside. On a Monday night. In November.
@bobajobPB So would a LVT tax just look at the value of a garden or the property as a whole? I am pretty worried about this.
It would most probably look at the value of the land on which the property sits, part of which is related to the fact that planning consent exists for the house, but not at the value of the house actually built.
Gardens are (best guess I can find) worth on average about £40 a square foot, so not a huge addition to the value of the house - and indeed may be double counting since the price you quote for buying the house includes buying the garden with it.
The main objective would be to reverse the current stupid situation where you pay more tax if you build a house than you pay if you sit on a planning permission and wait for prices to go up. Personally I think the quick win is just to apply business rates to plan-allocated land, and council tax to unbuilt permissions, but there we go.
Arguably there's an issue with bungalows, since they're an "inefficient" use of land and the land value / house price ratio will be different (if, hypothetically, the local council would be minded to grant permission to knock them down and build a house), but I doubt that's unfixable.
So for every square foot of your garden, you'd pay £40?
No. For every square foot of your garden you'd pay whatever the LVT rate was. Generally I think it's mooted at about 1%. So for every square foot of your garden you'd pay 40p (if and only if the value of your garden wasn't already counted in the 'land' proportion of the value of your house).
My best estimate based on the 1% rule and taking a mid-point of the 33-50% range for land vs house prices, LVT would cost just over £1k for every £250k of house price. Since house prices include gardens already I'm not sure we need to obsess about it.
Just don't apply for planning permission to turn your detached double garage into a small block of flats if you're not intending to go through with it.
It's a good way of forcing development. Would affect companies that have traditionally held large land banks without intending to develop them.
At 1%, the LVT on agricultural land would be in excess of typical market rents: interesting how that would be squared.
What does it do to supermarkets and utilities companies with massive land holdings ? Force up food and utility prices I assume ?
The allowed rates of return for utilities are based on their regulated asset bases.
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
Imagine how poor Dan Hannan would feel if Labour actually won? Brexit would have brought about a Corbyn premiership which would bring about a hard-Left Brexit, and it would all be Hannan's fault.
He would not be concerned. He would know that unlike anything emanating from the EU we would be able to vote them out again in 5 years. That of course was the point.
He would not be concerned. He would know that unlike anything emanating from the EU we would be able to vote them out again in 5 years. That of course was the point.
How much of Attlee's 1945 programme is still an annoyance for the right all these years later? Try winning a general election on a manifesto based on fundamental change in the NHS.
Whatever kind of Brexit we get, we will over time trend towards a UK-centric view of the world. Hard, soft, it doesn't matter much on longer timescales. Current agreements can and will be adjusted by future administrations. I see it as vanishingly unlikely we would ever vote ourselves back in. So the interesting question is not the terms we leave on but the steady state we head towards as a properly independent state. We will have more freedom to do stuff that is in our own direct national interest rather than in the advancement of a transnational project. We'll end up in a very good place. We just may have to go through some grief to get there.
could plaid lose arfon to labour ? 7% swing needed big student population of 11k in bangor of course.. labour are 13/2 with bet365
Probably only risk is PC and LibDem seats changing hands - unless the voting intention changes are not uniform across Wales. Hope of Tories winning seats in Wales now looking remote.
Plaid Cymru would lose all three seats according to Electoral Calculus on those numbers (two to Labour, one to the Conservatives). Carmarthen East & Dinefwr would be a cliffhanger with Labour just edging it from the Conservatives.
.... 7) If anything is to be salvaged from this disaster, it is by giving a voice to as many different interests as possible in the coming negotiations. That can only be achieved through a hung Parliament. Whatever comes next will at least be something that the entire country can feel some allegiance to. ....
Unfortunately there are two logical flaws in your argument, and both of them lie in this para 7.
- The effect of a hung parliament would be a chaotic outcome to Brexit (and certainly one worse than one negotiated by Theresa May with a majority), for the simple reason that a divided and weak government would be in a very bad position to negotiate and trade concessions.
- The net result would not be an outcome which the entire country can feel some allegiance to; instead it would be one which no-one in the entire country felt any allegiance to.
Whatever kind of Brexit we get, we will over time trend towards a UK-centric view of the world. Hard, soft, it doesn't matter much on longer timescales. Current agreements can and will be adjusted by future administrations. I see it as vanishingly unlikely we would ever vote ourselves back in. So the interesting question is not the terms we leave on but the steady state we head towards as a properly independent state. We will have more freedom to do stuff that is in our own direct national interest rather than in the advancement of a transnational project. We'll end up in a very good place. We just may have to go through some grief to get there.
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
Imagine how poor Dan Hannan would feel if Labour actually won? Brexit would have brought about a Corbyn premiership which would bring about a hard-Left Brexit, and it would all be Hannan's fault.
He would not be concerned. He would know that unlike anything emanating from the EU we would be able to vote them out again in 5 years. That of course was the point.
Yeah because in the EU we were not allowed to leave.
A family friend who always absolutely adored Tony Benn voted for UKIP in the European elections in 2014 (though she decided they were "racist" shortly afterwards and had gone back to Labour already by 2015).
The commentariat's understanding of UKIP voters/sympathisers has lways been very simplistic.
As Tony Benn was a fierce Eurosceptic, that is hardly earth shattering news
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
Imagine how poor Dan Hannan would feel if Labour actually won? Brexit would have brought about a Corbyn premiership which would bring about a hard-Left Brexit, and it would all be Hannan's fault.
He would not be concerned. He would know that unlike anything emanating from the EU we would be able to vote them out again in 5 years. That of course was the point.
Yeah because in the EU we were not allowed to leave.
In the EU we were not allowed to pursue our own policies for the best interests of our country as seen fit by our elected representatives.
Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.
The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.
The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.
They really aren't. The Tory lead is collapsing, and the collapse is ongoing. If the trend continues, and it has continued now for two weeks, TMay will lose her majority.
Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead. Look at the share not the lead.
Yes the Conservative vote share is falling , Labour vote share is rising .
And Farron is fighting to hold his seat - looks like you might be next up for leader - it really might be that bad.
Nah, the LibDems will still have the Liar of Orkney to lead them.....
Shome mishtake.
Surely the Lion of Orkney who bravely stood up to those ghastly Nats when they totally overreacted to him being a teensy bit economical with the actualité.
Imagine how poor Dan Hannan would feel if Labour actually won. Brexit would have brought about a Corbyn premiership which would bring about a hard-Left Brexit, and it would all be Hannan's fault.
I have always found Daniel Hannan to be totally disingenuous. Fair enough people voting Brexit because they don't like the EU much and would rather be masters of their own ship. Daniel Hannan is smart enough to know his "access to the Single Market is not the same as in the Single Market (but actually it is in terms of what we get)" sophistry is bollocks.
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
Imagine how poor Dan Hannan would feel if Labour actually won? Brexit would have brought about a Corbyn premiership which would bring about a hard-Left Brexit, and it would all be Hannan's fault.
He would not be concerned. He would know that unlike anything emanating from the EU we would be able to vote them out again in 5 years. That of course was the point.
Yeah because in the EU we were not allowed to leave.
In the EU we were not allowed to pursue our own policies for the best interests of our country as seen fit by our elected representatives.
In the EU successive democratically elected governments made decisions having been given the mandate to do so by voters.
Whatever kind of Brexit we get, we will over time trend towards a UK-centric view of the world. Hard, soft, it doesn't matter much on longer timescales. Current agreements can and will be adjusted by future administrations. I see it as vanishingly unlikely we would ever vote ourselves back in. So the interesting question is not the terms we leave on but the steady state we head towards as a properly independent state. We will have more freedom to do stuff that is in our own direct national interest rather than in the advancement of a transnational project. We'll end up in a very good place. We just may have to go through some grief to get there.
The UK is a transnational project is it not?
It is. If the Scots want out I wish them good luck.
No Scott it is just you are too dumb to understand it.
Britain, by its own lights, has built its prosperity on a role as a great trading nation. Yet by 2019 it will be the only significant European economy sitting outside all three of the continent’s trading blocs — the European Economic Area, the European Free Trade Area as well as the EU. This really does not make sense.
He just lost every kipper. Where's the surge coming from now?
Lots of kippers like the sound of no tuition fees, and bags of free emeralds, even more than they like Hard Brexit.
People who risked being called racist BNP lite to get us out of the EU and cut immigration won't vote Corbyn
You're much too political. I've seen at a count numerous people vote for a BNP candidate AND the vigorously anti-racist son of a Yugoslav immigrant in the same multi-member ward (Eastwood, Notts). And I had the support of a constituent who was so racist that he believed that it should be illegal to speak a foreign language in Britain, even tourists. I told him I thought his idea both undesirable and unworkable, and he said he'd still vote for me though, hey, he wasn't sure why.
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Brexit will happen (as AlastairMeeks outlines). The question now is "What sort of Brexit?".
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
Imagine how poor Dan Hannan would feel if Labour actually won? Brexit would have brought about a Corbyn premiership which would bring about a hard-Left Brexit, and it would all be Hannan's fault.
He would not be concerned. He would know that unlike anything emanating from the EU we would be able to vote them out again in 5 years. That of course was the point.
Yeah because in the EU we were not allowed to leave.
In the EU we were not allowed to pursue our own policies for the best interests of our country as seen fit by our elected representatives.
In the EU successive democratically elected governments made decisions having been given the mandate to do so by voters.
Those decisions were limited by or in some cases forbidden by the EU no matter what the people had voted for.
Plaid Cymru would lose all three seats according to Electoral Calculus on those numbers (two to Labour, one to the Conservatives). Carmarthen East & Dinefwr would be a cliffhanger with Labour just edging it from the Conservatives.
Labour would also win Gower and Cardiff North.
Tories should just hang on in Cardiff North. Gower will be very tight - 4,700 UKIP to plunder + incumbency not being enough to overcome no Green no TUSC and a rising Labour vote?
Labour's trying to avoid the Conservatives attacking them with a Lab-SNP poster, as they did with Miliband.
They want to replace it with this one
@alantravis40: Journalist @elliotttimes booed at Corbyn speech after asking JC whether he would invite Sinn Fein to Westminster to support a Lab coalition
Comments
They do not care about free tuition fees because frankly ukippers don't/wont go to uni on the whole.
So question is will the ukippers who swithched to labour in the last few days including in ICM swithch back to ukip, stay with lab (unlikely imo) or switch to May?
I would be very wary about believing anything papers like the Sun and Express are writing about this - they're just trying to scare people IMO.
The Labour manifesto just says they will consider it - they certainly haven't decided on a rate yet or how it would work in practice.
The Labour Land Campaign proposed a 3% rate on the value of the land (note not the whole property value).
http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/three-minutes-of-nothing-herald-reporter-reflects-on-pm-encounter/story-30363961-detail/story.html
And LOL at that Farage story. To think he was so keen to associate himself with Trump as well
The fact is that lots of people regard voting as a fairly minor activity, which will make little difference and they can exercise on a whim, if they get round to it. Sad but true.
Quite a lot of working-class people like the idea of going to university later in life (for which, incidentally, no tuition fees is a particular bonus, because student loans are very hard to get for mature students meaning fees often have to be paid upfront), and of course many of them will have kids who they hope to go to uni.
In any case, I don't think tuition fees is the only driver of UKIP->Lab switchers; I think it's more the general sense of "FFS, make something change already!!!".
Je sais ma francais est mauvais, qu'est-ce un lepenistes?
I do think that the majority is at risk and that we are entering a terrible time of economic and political uncertainty. If UKIP do not turn out in force for TM next week I think we will end up with a soft Brexit and lots of angst.
If Corbyn gets anywhere near a budget all hell will break lose on the markets and I do not think he has any hope of putting in place all his goodies and in a year or two we will see the IMF back in again.
Very sorry tale really and of course if TM does not achieve a majority she will stand down.
I am very concerned for UKPLC but we are where we are
Consrvative: 35% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 8% (-1)
Lib Dems: 5% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (dim newid)
Mr. Jonathan, reminds me of Steve Davis describing the approach of snooker players in the '70s and '80s: we used to bite them on the neck and hang on.
I think very few Leavers buy into the open Libertarian low tax Brexit of Dan Hannan. They like the protectionist welfare state socialist Brexit of Jezza.
Sterling’s Brexit-fuelled decline over the past year has been Britain’s “least successful” currency devaluation in history, an analysis of the latest growth figures has revealed.
The UK’s trade balance has worsened by 1.8% of GDP since the final quarter of 2015 — before worries over the EU referendum began to hurt the pound. Rising exports have been outstripped by an even faster rise in imports, according to Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
But yes I think that the strategy being deployed by the Conservatives suggests they are aware that some Kippers are not fully on board with the Theresa May party.
The commentariat's understanding of UKIP voters/sympathisers has lways been very simplistic.
A bit of damp squib, tbh.
Bobajob
Still grim.
Using my voter switching Scotland model (the one that is producing too-large-for-the-topline Con voteshare) SCons take Edinburgh North and Leith.
This would be, errrrrr, a brave bet for anyone to take.
I'm not entirely clear why utility companies have massive land holdings (or rather I'm not clear what the basis for viewing that land as particularly valuable in cash terms is).
Farmland yields rather depend on separating out agricultural value elements of the sale price from 'ooh this might get planning permission in a decade or so' elements of the sale price.
No, they'd fight to overcome Corbyn.
big student population of 11k in bangor of course..
labour are 13/2 with bet365
I personally think they've been terrible for my side of the political spectrum.
If this polling is right.....
Unlike Scotland, Wales hasn't diverged much from the results in the rest of the country in a long time. In elections or in referendums.
Labour would also win Gower and Cardiff North.
- The effect of a hung parliament would be a chaotic outcome to Brexit (and certainly one worse than one negotiated by Theresa May with a majority), for the simple reason that a divided and weak government would be in a very bad position to negotiate and trade concessions.
- The net result would not be an outcome which the entire country can feel some allegiance to; instead it would be one which no-one in the entire country felt any allegiance to.
It's just bollocks
Why would they opt for a Labour minority government?
Surely the Lion of Orkney who bravely stood up to those ghastly Nats when they totally overreacted to him being a teensy bit economical with the actualité.
But widely accepted that business rates and council tax are not very good taxes - whereas land value tax is theoretically very good.
Lab 46% (+2)
Con 35% (+1)
Plaid 8% (-1)
Lib Dems 5% (-1)
UKIP 5% (no change)
Ms. Apocalypse, they wouldn't.
Labour's trying to avoid the Conservatives attacking them with a Lab-SNP poster, as they did with Miliband.
A trading Nation, that doesn't want to trade.
Fucking genius...
Oh Who knows any more. The Tories on 44ish have to be SOMEWHERE though. Maybe they're on 70% of the vote in Lamb's constituency o_O
Because the idea of the SNP as part of a Labour coalition was a killer last time around.
It makes no difference of course, as a minority Labour government* would still be backed by the SNP and the effect would be the same.
*Not that this will be happening anyway.
@alantravis40: Journalist @elliotttimes booed at Corbyn speech after asking JC whether he would invite Sinn Fein to Westminster to support a Lab coalition