politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More worrying numbers for Team Theresa as doubts amongst punte

SeanT said:

llef said:

welsh opinion poll out around 4pm and according to Roger Scully...

Prof Roger Scully Retweeted SharpendITV
And it's an interesting one!

Huge Labour surge is my prediction. Judging by those Sky Vox Pops.

Even if it was exactly the same as the last ten Welsh polls, it would be given top billing on PB, for which ALL Welsh polls are box office smashes. There is just something about Celtic polling – particularly that from west of Offa's Dyke, that appeals to the typical PB psyche. I think it might be something to do with those Scottish subsample controversies back in the halcyon days, but I can't be sure.

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

Perhaps the Tories should do something more positive.

Nah. We really and simply don't know. The attack ads could be shoring up a Tory vote share, that might otherwise be in the 30s by now.

I agree, however, that the Tories need some big positive VOTE FOR US policies, now. Promise everyone £3000 and a box of emeralds. I don't care. Anything.

Something akin to GO's inheritance tax thing in October 2007.

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

Perhaps the Tories should do something more positive.

The Tories offer nothing positive at the moment. It's just a blend of safety-first wrt Brexit and project-fear wrt Corbyn.

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

Perhaps the Tories should do something more positive.

I get the feeling most voters under 65+ do not care about the IRA thing.

Elections are won on bread and butter issues, I'd have thought Tories of all people would get that.

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

TOPPING said:

david_herdson said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.

It's *still* campaigning on the wrong issues (the right issues are Brexit, the economy and security).

But not in that order. The right issues are:

the economy, the economy, the economy.

And then acknowledge, as Tezza began to today, that we can't let health and education fall back, funding-wise. Dear god compared with Jezza's spending Tezza could promise a free taxi for everyone going to their GP for a year and still come out up vs Lab's plans.

The overarching theme should have been Trust.

Who do you trust to deliver a growing economy while keeping the nation's finances under control?
Who do you trust to negotiate with the European Union to deliver the best deal for Britain?
Who do you trust to keep you and your family safe?

Those are the questions that the context of May vs Corbyn should have been set within. Frankly, we've had enough public service reform these last seven years. promising not to bugger about with structures would of itself be a vote winner as well as easily deliverable.

How can she go on trust on an election she promised she would never call or to deliver a Brexit she still clearly doesn't believe in? Or for that matter her latest promise to reduce immigration.

On Brexit, she leads a party committed to Brexit and everything she's said since June last year backs up that she accepts the result. Indeed, her pre-referendum speech was decidedly luke-warm about the EU. And she has experience in delivering in foreign relations, with Abu Qatada's deportation.

As for not calling the election, that's a non-issue even by the standards of this campaign, not least because Labour themselves voted for it.

The Trust question comes down to not just which side would run an effective government but how badly the other would fail and what would be risked by their election.

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

KentRising said:

So in the past fortnight there's been, like, what, one poll with the Tories rising? Down 4 this time is unignorably down.

If you look at the averages, the Tories are still up a point or so relative to their position prior to the calling of the election.

And down how many points since the first polls after the election was called?

Down 2, if you are looking at the averages.

Is that all thanks its a breeze really isnt it?

TM performance is this bad and only down 2 amazing but true.

I predicted 43/34 at the start

Any PB Tory prepared to take that as the outcome yet.

I am getting giddy and think it could now be 43/35

TMICIPM 60 Maj

rkrkrk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Pulpstar said:

Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.

He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn.
We'd have not had Brexit either.

But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly.
So it's swings and roundabouts really...

(Privately some of my London Tory friends have told me they wished Miliband had won because of Brexit. What will they say if they end up with Corbyn!?)

"But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly."
Breakfast means Breakfast.

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

TOPPING said:

david_herdson said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.

It's *still* campaigning on the wrong issues (the right issues are Brexit, the economy and security).

But not in that order. The right issues are:

the economy, the economy, the economy.

And then acknowledge, as Tezza began to today, that we can't let health and education fall back, funding-wise. Dear god compared with Jezza's spending Tezza could promise a free taxi for everyone going to their GP for a year and still come out up vs Lab's plans.

The overarching theme should have been Trust.

Who do you trust to deliver a growing economy while keeping the nation's finances under control?
Who do you trust to negotiate with the European Union to deliver the best deal for Britain?
Who do you trust to keep you and your family safe?

Those are the questions that the context of May vs Corbyn should have been set within. Frankly, we've had enough public service reform these last seven years. promising not to bugger about with structures would of itself be a vote winner as well as easily deliverable.

BUT Nick Timothy wanted his place in history

What a complete twat.

He has his place. If he is not history by June 9, Theresa May will do well to see Christmas in No 10.

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.

And what proportion of votes have already been cast under these handy enough leads? For Labour to overcome that, they really need to be getting on level terms by next Thursday....

Polruan said:

The_Apocalypse said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Alistair said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.

I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.

But the Tory vote isn't the problem according to public polling, Con vote is steady, it's the Labour surge (klaxon alert) that is the issue. I don't see how grammars arrests the surge.

Perhaps private polling or canvassing returns are telling them that the Labour surge is bollocks ?

Messina and the anothet Tory strategist posted tweets yesterday dismissing YouGov. Implies that what they are seeing doesn't tallying up with YouGov's results.

So does that mean that the sensationalised reporting of the yougov in the Times *wasnt* a Tory plot to discourage complacency, or just that the strategist in question didn't get the memo? It's so hard to calibrate misinformation: how far do you push "we could lose this, so vote for us" before it becomes self-fulfilling and you're actually seen as losing?

Indeed.

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's a statement of the bleedin' obvious, but the line that 'no deal is a bad deal' is a tautology just as 'a bad deal is worse than no deal' is. It's equally bleedin' obvious that 'no deal is a bad deal' applies to the EU27 as well as to us.

One thing the PM has unquestionably got right is her position on this. She wants a good deal, and she's made it very clear what kind of deal she wants. It completely baffles me that anyone thinks that this is a weak point; it's her strongest point, and makes perfect sense. The risks don't lie with the UK's position, but with the EU27's.

I wish I was more surprised that you are still peddling this nonsense

Britain, by its own lights, has built its prosperity on a role as a great trading nation. Yet by 2019 it will be the only significant European economy sitting outside all three of the continent’s trading blocs — the European Economic Area, the European Free Trade Area as well as the EU. This really does not make sense.

For her part, Mrs May is fighting an election to prove such naysayers wrong. When the prime minister called the June 8 poll she said she needed a fresh mandate to negotiate Brexit. The constant refrain since of a lacklustre and shaky Conservative campaign has been that Mrs May alone offers the “strong and stable” leadership needed to strike a deal with the EU27. She would “get Brexit right”, “make a success of Brexit”, get “the best deal”. Take your pick.

Election campaigns, with their tendency to elevate obfuscation over argument and slogan above fact, are often dispiriting. None, I can recall, more than this one. Brexit is the most consequential political and economic choice the nation has faced since 1945. Yet beyond the glib promises to be a tough negotiator, Mrs May refuses to talk about life outside the EU.

https://www.ft.com/content/5c4e3720-45ed-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

Perhaps the Tories should do something more positive.

I get the feeling most voters under 65+ do not care about the IRA thing.

Elections are won on bread and butter issues, I'd have thought Tories of all people would get that.

Do the under 65's care about the Islamist terrorists?

Corbyn could be on course to beat one symbolic target - the biggest post-Iraq vote share for the Labour party, eclipsing Blair's 2005 total of 35.2%.

https://twitter.com/reactionlife/status/870276249733795840

Beverley_C said:

Pulpstar said:

David_Evershed said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

You believe exit polls?

They are normally quite accurate.

I have disbelieved the last two on the Beeb at 22:01. I might as well have gone to bed because the exit polls called it well enough.

The last one in 2015 stated 316 Tory seats as I recall with Labour about 240 when everyone was expecting a far, far closer result, perhaps even a Labour minority govt.

Flashback worse than Tunisia stop it

Charles said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Charles said:

Carolus_Rex said:

TravelJunkie said:

oldpolitics said:

TravelJunkie said:

If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?

Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.

A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.

We won't evict mum and dad.

But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.

If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.

Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.

That works if you pay something close to a market rent. And better not let anyone catch you receiving the rent back from the kids!

Leaseholds are peppercorn - effectively the rent is in the purchase price. You are transferring less value to your children but leaving yourself with a wasting asset (and their side of the equation accreting with each passing year)

If you start mucking around with exchanges of leases and multiple cross-transfers of interests you need a decent lawyer and tax adviser, or the SDLT gets expensive very quickly indeed, particularly with the 3% additional charge (safe to assume most people with the wealth to play this game will have an existing property).

Theuniondivvie said:

Any word on how many more views the Corbyn IRA ad has had? I'm sure that's the really important number this afternoon.

Numbers are not important...

How many fingers?

https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/870256851140718593

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Fieldwork 26 May - 01 Jun

Surge surge surge, where does it end?

Labour genuinely had some rougher days at the beginning of this week, but no sign of any effect.

The trend is set now. Snowball effect. Would take a real gamechanger for the trend to reverse with just 7 days until polling day. The Tories will be relieved that there's only a week to go, not more. But it has felt like an awfully long 'snap' election for them.

That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?

Indyref.

However, with indyref, even though they lost on the day, the losing side's supporters didn't lose their zeal afterwards, and they still look even now with a fighting chance when (if) the next time they get put on the ballot paper.

williamglenn said:

Corbyn could be on course to beat one symbolic target - the biggest post-Iraq vote share for the Labour party, eclipsing Blair's 2005 total of 35.2%.

A possibility with the lds doing so poorly, to be sure.

Theuniondivvie said:

Any word on how many more views the Corbyn IRA ad has had? I'm sure that's the really important number this afternoon.

6 million

Mostly from Lab supporters trying to blow the Tory Ads budget

SeanT said:

A smart friend of mine is panicking in central London. She says a Corbyn win or Corbyn-led govt would kill her husband's business stone dead.

However, she has modestly better news on the polling. A friend of hers in politics (she is very well connected) says that certain pollsters believe their own results are skewed too much to the young who won't vote.

Huge caveat emptor, of course.

The Conservatives' average vote share has been on 44% for about a week now.

@BBCVickiYoung: Corbyn says he doesn't do personal attacks but no-one on his #Brexit team fibbed about spending £350m a week on NHS #ge2017

The_Apocalypse said:

Nor surprised by that poll.

48% was already too high a poll score for the Tories - in that sense, Panelbase is moving into line with other pollsters who show the Tory vote share to be about 42% - 44%. The 36% Labour share also reflects the polling average of Labour in mid-thirties.

Because the previous poll was oddly quite old, it's seen some dramatic movements - but ones which basically reflect the overall trend of a declining Tory lead but the Tories still on course for a majority.

8% lead = reflects the average Tory lead in the polls of about 8% - 9%.

@bobajobPB So would a LVT tax just look at the value of a garden or the property as a whole? I am pretty worried about this.

Labour are retaining the property tax (CT) aren't they? I assume this LVT is for undeveloped land.

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Fieldwork 26 May - 01 Jun

Surge surge surge, where does it end?

Labour genuinely had some rougher days at the beginning of this week, but no sign of any effect.

The trend is set now. Snowball effect. Would take a real gamechanger for the trend to reverse with just 7 days until polling day. The Tories will be relieved that there's only a week to go, not more. But it has felt like an awfully long 'snap' election for them.

That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?

It's the Cleggasm again. Remember when Clegg and co were briefly in the lead in 2010? They ended up losing seats.

The Conservative party works like a slow dead hand that patiently throttles its opponent.

I remember that. I was so shocked when the exit poll came in showing them losing seats.

I truly thought back then that the LD surge was real.

Polruan said:

Charles said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Charles said:

Carolus_Rex said:

TravelJunkie said:

oldpolitics said:

TravelJunkie said:

If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?

Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.

A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.

We won't evict mum and dad.

But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.

If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.

Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.

That works if you pay something close to a market rent. And better not let anyone catch you receiving the rent back from the kids!

Leaseholds are peppercorn - effectively the rent is in the purchase price. You are transferring less value to your children but leaving yourself with a wasting asset (and their side of the equation accreting with each passing year)

If you start mucking around with exchanges of leases and multiple cross-transfers of interests you need a decent lawyer and tax adviser, or the SDLT gets expensive very quickly indeed, particularly with the 3% additional charge (safe to assume most people with the wealth to play this game will have an existing property).

Leaseback relief should be available (this is not tax advice)

Danny565 said:

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Fieldwork 26 May - 01 Jun

Surge surge surge, where does it end?

Labour genuinely had some rougher days at the beginning of this week, but no sign of any effect.

The trend is set now. Snowball effect. Would take a real gamechanger for the trend to reverse with just 7 days until polling day. The Tories will be relieved that there's only a week to go, not more. But it has felt like an awfully long 'snap' election for them.

That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?

Indyref.

However, with indyref, even though they lost on the day, the losing side's supporters didn't lose their zeal afterwards, and they still look even now with a fighting chance when (if) the next time they get put on the ballot paper.

That's fine. The next time will be in five years and it will be a whole new political landscape by then.

Carolus_Rex said:

Charles said:

Blue_rog said:

Charles said:

Carolus_Rex said:

TravelJunkie said:

oldpolitics said:

TravelJunkie said:

If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?

Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.

A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.

We won't evict mum and dad.

But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.

If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.

Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.

You'd have to pay market rent though wouldn't you?

Not with a leasehold. Ground rent is a few hundred pounds a year.

That assumes a substantial premium though. The kids may as well buy the freehold outright in that case.

Who's paying who? (I'm not a tax adviser so genuinely interested if my idea doesn't work!)

Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.

They really aren't. The Tory lead is collapsing, and the collapse is ongoing. If the trend continues, and it has continued now for two weeks, TMay will lose her majority.

Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.

Look at the trend.

Pong said:

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.

They really aren't. The Tory lead is collapsing, and the collapse is ongoing. If the trend continues, and it has continued now for two weeks, TMay will lose her majority.

Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.

Look at the trend.

In the share? Pretty steady.

AlsoIndigo said:

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Fieldwork 26 May - 01 Jun

Surge surge surge, where does it end?

Labour genuinely had some rougher days at the beginning of this week, but no sign of any effect.

The trend is set now. Snowball effect. Would take a real gamechanger for the trend to reverse with just 7 days until polling day. The Tories will be relieved that there's only a week to go, not more. But it has felt like an awfully long 'snap' election for them.

That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?

The only emotional reflexing going on is here on PB. How you can divine the above from the box tickings of a few self-selecting political anoraks that are engaged enough to complete online opinion polls I dont know. Its just as likely there is going to be another polling disaster, the latest of many.

Mrs May is targeting people like my old Mum, a provincial voter, who doesnt do social media, barely watches the news because its too depressing (read, out of step with here rural values), isnt particularly politically active, but loves Mrs May. She will be down the polling booth like a shot when they open to put a cross in the blue box. Mrs Indigo(Snr) has never completed an online opinion poll, and neither have any of here similarly disposed neighbours.

Meanwhile rather than just hyperventilating "because BrExit", do we have any actual evidence that any more 18-24 voters will manage to find their way to the polling booths than has previously been the case ?

In other words "the opinion polls are wrong".

dyedwoolie said:

Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.

The EU's already put a detailed proposal on the table so if he's agreeing to that, it already is reciprocal.

Sounds like it's not all bad polling news for the Conservatives today:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/870277399409303552

This in response to:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870275279629037568

He's just halted the surge. Rules out no deal. Says no deal is the worst possible deal. Will sign anything therefore. EU laughing like a drain.

williamglenn said:

dyedwoolie said:

Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.

The EU's already put a detailed proposal on the table so if he's agreeing to that, it already is reciprocal.

I thought we couldn't pick and choose?

Pulpstar said:

He probably won't win this time, but he's started something. You can smell it in the air. Jez ready to take power after the clusterfuck of the Tory 2019 Brexit.

Age maybe a problem then? Will be 73 in 2022.

bobajobPB said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Nor surprised by that poll.

48% was already too high a poll score for the Tories - in that sense, Panelbase is moving into line with other pollsters who show the Tory vote share to be about 42% - 44%. The 36% Labour share also reflects the polling average of Labour in mid-thirties.

Because the previous poll was oddly quite old, it's seen some dramatic movements - but ones which basically reflect the overall trend of a declining Tory lead but the Tories still on course for a majority.

8% lead = reflects the average Tory lead in the polls of about 8% - 9%.

@bobajobPB So would a LVT tax just look at the value of a garden or the property as a whole? I am pretty worried about this.

Labour are retaining the property tax (CT) aren't they? I assume this LVT is for undeveloped land.

I thought the LVT was something they were looking to potentially replace the CT with?

We will initiate a review into
reforming council tax and business
rates and consider new options
such as a land value tax, to ensure
local government has sustainable
funding for the long term.

This is a bit ambiguous about that. So they want you to pay CT and for your garden as well? So if gardens are low value I'm wondering how much that would add on to CT, then again I'm wondering how they will reform CT in the first place.

In the case this comes to pass, I'd hope Labour MPs wouldn't allow them to do anything stupid.

dyedwoolie said:

Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.

And correct to do so.

dyedwoolie said:

Corbyn confirms full rights for EUs in Britain without guarantee of reciprocal. Brave.

He really does hate us.

The_Apocalypse said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Fieldwork 26 May - 01 Jun

Surge surge surge, where does it end?

Labour genuinely had some rougher days at the beginning of this week, but no sign of any effect.

The trend is set now. Snowball effect. Would take a real gamechanger for the trend to reverse with just 7 days until polling day. The Tories will be relieved that there's only a week to go, not more. But it has felt like an awfully long 'snap' election for them.

That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?

It's the Cleggasm again. Remember when Clegg and co were briefly in the lead in 2010? They ended up losing seats.

The Conservative party works like a slow dead hand that patiently throttles its opponent.

I remember that. I was so shocked when the exit poll came in showing them losing seats.

I truly thought back then that the LD surge was real.

The LibDem percentage did increase slightly, but they lost seats because of FPTP, bad luck or bad targeting.
I suppose that if the polls tell you that you're doing well you can end up spreading your resources too thin and getting too ambitious. Does that sound familiar?

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

What sort of fucked up country do we live in if exposing the leader of the opposition as a terrorist sympathiser makes him MORE POPULAR?

I am lost for words. And not a little scared

dyedwoolie said:

Theory. May doesn't care about the Labour surge, she thinks it won't turn out and it shores up her support to stop Jezza. She's playing a 45 to 47 strategy and knows if they turn out she's home and hosed. If the surge fades a little (2 percent or 3 maybe) and the polls are on the mean side for the blues as usual by a percent or so she's over the line. Everything she says or does for the next week is about making sure Brexiteers, kippers and the blue rinsers vote and vote blue.

I agree. But it's taking some stern stuff to keep believing it.

I'm comforted though by memories of the 2015 campaign and how the social media and, to a large degree, air war wqs won by Labour who also trumpeted their ground game and 4 million conversations. But unseen the Tory ground game and marginal seat efforts were clinically effective.

I hope Crosby is as devastating this time, unseen. Currently I'm fearing for my NE Wales blue bets...

JonCisBack said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

What sort of fucked up country do we live in if exposing the leader of the opposition as a terrorist sympathiser makes him MORE POPULAR?

I am lost for words. And not a little scared

Perhaps the relentless shitstorm thrown at Ed Miliband has made anyone on the centre or left think "Meh, just the right wing press throwing muck again".

Just a thought.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000

The surge continues.

Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.

The polls are beginning to be consistent around a Tory share of 44%. That is enough for a comfortable majority.

They really aren't. The Tory lead is collapsing, and the collapse is ongoing. If the trend continues, and it has continued now for two weeks, TMay will lose her majority.

Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.
Look at the share not the lead.

It's down from consistently high 40s to consistently low 40s. Now it's true Corbyn has also picked up at the expense of UKIP, Greens and Lib Dems. But, looking at the share, it simply isn't true that May has been serenely sailing along while Labour hoovers up the rest - not by a long chalk.

The bump the Tories received after the calling of the election has disappeared, but they are still up one relative to where they were ante bellum.

logical_song said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Fieldwork 26 May - 01 Jun

Surge surge surge, where does it end?

Labour genuinely had some rougher days at the beginning of this week, but no sign of any effect.

The trend is set now. Snowball effect. Would take a real gamechanger for the trend to reverse with just 7 days until polling day. The Tories will be relieved that there's only a week to go, not more. But it has felt like an awfully long 'snap' election for them.

That's my fear. This feels like a big emotional reflex, a national mood-change over the course of a campaign. We've had them before, quite recently. The mood shift is real and almost impossible to reverse.

The big question is, in terms of outcome: is this indyref, or Brexit?

The only emotional reflexing going on is here on PB. How you can divine the above from the box tickings of a few self-selecting political anoraks that are engaged enough to complete online opinion polls I dont know. Its just as likely there is going to be another polling disaster, the latest of many.

Mrs May is targeting people like my old Mum, a provincial voter, who doesnt do social media, barely watches the news because its too depressing (read, out of step with here rural values), isnt particularly politically active, but loves Mrs May. She will be down the polling booth like a shot when they open to put a cross in the blue box. Mrs Indigo(Snr) has never completed an online opinion poll, and neither have any of here similarly disposed neighbours.

Meanwhile rather than just hyperventilating "because BrExit", do we have any actual evidence that any more 18-24 voters will manage to find their way to the polling booths than has previously been the case ?

In other words "the opinion polls are wrong".

I think that is what I said in the third line of my post.

GIN1138 said:

llef said:

welsh opinion poll out around 4pm and according to Roger Scully...

Prof Roger Scully Retweeted SharpendITV
And it's an interesting one!

It's YouGov so it'll be terrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiibbbbbbllllleeeeee for the Tories...

If it's not, do we praise YouGov.. but then we have to believe their national figures... argh.. *head explodes*

bigjohnowls said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Any word on how many more views the Corbyn IRA ad has had? I'm sure that's the really important number this afternoon.

6 million

Mostly from Lab supporters trying to blow the Tory Ads budget

Via Guido

Donations from the last week via the Electoral Commission:


Tories: £3,772,550

Labour: £331,499

LibDems: £310,500

Women’s Equality Party: £71,552

UKIP: £16,300

Greens: £9,366

The_Apocalypse said:

@bobajobPB So would a LVT tax just look at the value of a garden or the property as a whole? I am pretty worried about this.

It would most probably look at the value of the land on which the property sits, part of which is related to the fact that planning consent exists for the house, but not at the value of the house actually built.

Gardens are (best guess I can find) worth on average about £40 a square foot, so not a huge addition to the value of the house - and indeed may be double counting since the price you quote for buying the house includes buying the garden with it.

The main objective would be to reverse the current stupid situation where you pay more tax if you build a house than you pay if you sit on a planning permission and wait for prices to go up. Personally I think the quick win is just to apply business rates to plan-allocated land, and council tax to unbuilt permissions, but there we go.

Arguably there's an issue with bungalows, since they're an "inefficient" use of land and the land value / house price ratio will be different (if, hypothetically, the local council would be minded to grant permission to knock them down and build a house), but I doubt that's unfixable.

Charles said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Charles said:

Blue_rog said:

Charles said:

Carolus_Rex said:

TravelJunkie said:

oldpolitics said:

TravelJunkie said:

If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?

Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.

A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.

We won't evict mum and dad.

But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.

If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.

Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.

You'd have to pay market rent though wouldn't you?

Not with a leasehold. Ground rent is a few hundred pounds a year.

That assumes a substantial premium though. The kids may as well buy the freehold outright in that case.

Who's paying who? (I'm not a tax adviser so genuinely interested if my idea doesn't work!)

Assuming you're talking about a capital asset (a long leasehold interest) then there's a deemed market value transfer for a transaction between connected parties so doesn't matter who pays what to whom. It gets muddier when you look at exchanges of part-shares of land interests, grants of new leases and so on, so even assuming MV is not necessarily correct in this case.

This is thinking about it in IHT/CGT terms though, it's not safe to assume that care cost assessments would follow the principles of either of those taxes.

Feel free to send me a DM (vanilla does that, I assume?) if you'd like a bit more detail on the tax side.